Philosophers' Mafia [ENDGAME]

[tutuu]

ok i can in fact confirm that i redirected tutuu to amy

so tutuu cannot be a solo wolf unless i was blocked. but amy claims to be blocked, so ok

tutuu can be the wolf roleblocker, which accounts for why amy did not get a result on me. it would also reinforce her narrative of “hally is ascetic” that she’s been pushing

or the last wolf can still be amy pending tutuu’s peek and amy is just lying about not getting a result on me

GOTTEM

LETS GO BABY

[VOTE: Amy] aubergine

EZ GAME EZ LIFE

[Amy]

dropping this post to say that i have acklowledged your redcheck and refute it

parsing to figure out what this means, since you're hardconfirmed not lone wolfing

[tutuu]

It means that you are going to die.

[Amy]

It means that you are going to die.

i wouldn't be surprised

whoever the wolves are have taken great care to set me up

i do, however, detest being the game-losing misdunk, and will fight to prevent it from happening

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Ok so

Relatively worlds yeah?

Either Amy (possibly solo possibly plus one)

Or tutu plus one (likely...Hally? Or LC? I’ve put little thought into partner tbh)

Right? Am I missing a possibility here?

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

*relatively easy worlds

Don’t phone post at 5am kids

[Amy]

Scenario:
- Amy targets Hally with postcount boost/flavor parity check; action fails
- Hally redirects tutuu to Amy
- tutuu manually peeks Amy; claims redpeek

I'm working with the advantage of knowing the redpeek is not correct. This means that either tutuu is lying, or was redirected onto someone who is Greek. I also know that tutuu cannot be the lone wolf via Hally's aforementioned redirect.

Possibility 1:
- Hally solo wolf (ascetic redirector); Hally redirects tutuu to Hally

The biggest issue with this world is whether or not Hally can self-target with the redirect. Places I've played previously would have fairly universally said no, I think, but I have no idea if that's syndicate-standard; wondering if [mention]Long Con[/mention] is able to weigh in at all. Still, think this is one of the less likely ones at a glance.

Possibility 2:
- tutuu wolfing with Nanook; Nanook carries KP, tutuu fakes redcheck, one of them roleblocks Amy

Obviously any w!Nanook world requires believing Nanook to be both a godfather and a dayvig; this world SPECIFICALLY requires believing that Bob was absolutely turbobussed D2. Notably I THINK this is the only world fmpov in which Hally's a villager.

Possibility 3:
- Hally wolfing with Nanook; Hally ascetic redirector, redirects tutuu to [self/Nanook]

This one would be galaxy brain play from the Hally/Nanook team tbh, but it's not entirely out of the realm of possibility. See all above caveats about wolf Nanook.

Possibility 4:
- Hally wolfing with tutuu; Hally ascetic redirector, does whatever, tutuu fakes redcheck

Weird world given how yesterday played out, but mechanically possible.

So:

Hally
Hally/Nanook
Hally/tutuu
tutuu/Nanook

are the worlds fmpov.

I'm rereading before I do any voting.

On the plus side, I also have the advantage of knowing that if tutuu parks and it's Hally/Nanook I'm getting quickhammered as soon as they're both online, so that's nice (and it'll be nice to confirm them not the team if they don't)

LC, strongly requesting you wait before voting. I'm town; dunking me will not advance your wincon.

11/60

linki: Nanook, from your perspective I think that covers it aside from the "Hally can self-redirect" world

I'm also realizing I'm excluding "LC is a lying liar who lied" worlds but. I don't really know what to do about him, tbh.

[tutuu]

b) Self targeting is not allowed where roles don't allow otherwise, but it doesn't hurt to ask.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Ok so the claims from last night are

Hally redirects Tutu to Amy
Tutu targets Amy herself, reports red check
Amy targets (I don’t remember?) gets (not mafia check IIRC)


[mention]Amy[/mention] remind me who your claimed check is on?

[Amy]

Ok so the claims from last night are

Hally redirects Tutu to Amy
Tutu targets Amy herself, reports red check
Amy targets (I don’t remember?) gets (not mafia check IIRC)


@Amy remind me who your claimed check is on?

I targeted Hally and my action failed.

12/60

[Amy]

I'm. Somewhat inclined to think that w!Hally wouldn't suddenly pivot their action when they know that doing so means I'm gonna get a fail result? Unless they were banking on exactly me thinking tutuu is a roleblocker. I'm not gonna bank the game on it, though.

I guess really what it boils down to is that there's ALWAYS a wolf in Hally/tutuu, because either the peek is faked or the redirect went somewhere else. So really I just need to solve for X, I suppose.

Would they do this as w/w? I feel like they should know that if they went for the blatant frame job I'd wind up sussing both of them. Idk I need to reread how it all played out.

13/60

[Amy]

I hate that we're in a gamestate where I can't just crossvote the person with an incorrect redpeek on me because they still might be town.

Delete redirectors.

14/60

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Oh right

Ok so...I’m trying to, like, come up with potential edge worlds other than the obvious two before I lock in

Tutu bussing Amy doesn’t fit imo cause they could’ve just killed me and dunked on Hally for the win I think?

Tutu...could tutu be lone wolf with a roleblock instead of a cop check actually? This depends on order of ops, intuitively I would think a roleblock would precede a redirect, but I really have no idea. [mention]Hally[/mention] I would ask tony about order of ops and see what he says

That still doesn’t explain the failed check though does it, so nvm that

Hally could be lone wolf ascetic redirector in theory, I guess? Her play is uh...weird, if she’s partners with radishes especially, but idk if I’d say it’s completely impossible. Seems less likely tho, and she’d have to be able to redirect to herself, and i have no idea if that’s a thing or not but I’d intuitively say probably not.


So yeah, most likely worlds are probably just Amy or tutu plus one I think?

[Amy]

...what purpose is there to a mafia ascetic redirector? What roles did we have?

I'm gonna compile a mechpost.

15/60

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

I'm. Somewhat inclined to think that w!Hally wouldn't suddenly pivot their action when they know that doing so means I'm gonna get a fail result? Unless they were banking on exactly me thinking tutuu is a roleblocker. I'm not gonna bank the game on it, though.

I guess really what it boils down to is that there's ALWAYS a wolf in Hally/tutuu, because either the peek is faked or the redirect went somewhere else. So really I just need to solve for X, I suppose.

Would they do this as w/w? I feel like they should know that if they went for the blatant frame job I'd wind up sussing both of them. Idk I need to reread how it all played out.

13/60

If that’s their play they don’t really care about you, yeah? They’re just trying to buy a Nanook or LC vote and power through

[Amy]

I'm. Somewhat inclined to think that w!Hally wouldn't suddenly pivot their action when they know that doing so means I'm gonna get a fail result? Unless they were banking on exactly me thinking tutuu is a roleblocker. I'm not gonna bank the game on it, though.

I guess really what it boils down to is that there's ALWAYS a wolf in Hally/tutuu, because either the peek is faked or the redirect went somewhere else. So really I just need to solve for X, I suppose.

Would they do this as w/w? I feel like they should know that if they went for the blatant frame job I'd wind up sussing both of them. Idk I need to reread how it all played out.

13/60

If that’s their play they don’t really care about you, yeah? They’re just trying to buy a Nanook or LC vote and power through

Mm yeah I guess.

World just seems weird to me after how yesterday played out, mostly.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Tbh I was really hoping we’d get a red peek today

It makes the worlds so much easier to sort out

[tutuu]

Nanook you worded that post as if we didn't get a red peek? But we did?

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Nanook you worded that post as if we didn't get a red peek? But we did?

It’s past tense because I don’t have to hope anymore

[tutuu]

cant wait to get my first win on the syndicate

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Actually can we just rule out tutu lone mafia world? Successful fake peek here doesn’t win her the game, not with her claiming manual target of Amy (so there’s no out of “Hally redirected me to herself and that’s where my red peek came from” in f3)

So she has to have a partner if she’s mafia

[tutuu]

damn right we can

[Amy]

Actually can we just rule out tutu lone mafia world? Successful fake peek here doesn’t win her the game, not with her claiming manual target of Amy (so there’s no out of “Hally redirected me to herself and that’s where my red peek came from” in f3)

So she has to have a partner if she’s mafia

i already mentioned this

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Actually can we just rule out tutu lone mafia world? Successful fake peek here doesn’t win her the game, not with her claiming manual target of Amy (so there’s no out of “Hally redirected me to herself and that’s where my red peek came from” in f3)

So she has to have a partner if she’s mafia

i already mentioned this

Sorry I must’ve glossed over it, my bad

[tutuu]

Amy isn't even considering LC as Mafia lol. She's treating him as confirmed 3p from her pov. She's just open wolfing.

From her pov Tutuu is Mafia with Hally (which is pretty lol considering the last few days)

Or Tutuu is Mafia with Nanook (which is also pretty lol at least from Nanook's PoV)

The only sensible PoV for her to make as town is Tutuu + LC Mafia, which she isn't making.

For the 1000000000000000000th time, Amy has no PoE to push, no sensible scumreads to push, because she has been obvious scum for a very long time

[Amy]

i'm marinating the possibility of scum!LC chill

workin on this mechpost first

[tutuu]

xD

[Amy]

what if it's hally/long con

lemme finish this mech post first but

i was hit by thoughts

[tutuu]

ye thats possible from ur pov

[Amy]

ALIVE:
Amy - Alternating Post Add/Subtract; parity flavor scan
NANOOK - 1x dayvig
tutuu - Nationality scan; mech knowledge that all wolves are Greek [effectively alignment cop]
Hally - full redirector; fails if redirecting mafia to mafia
Long Con - 3rd party; bulletproof vest, 80% ascetic; wins if participates in 2 wolf dunks [and survives? or just wins and exits? unclear]

DEAD:
KZA - wolf
Master Radishes - unknown, but likely wolf
colonialbob - wolf
====
Alison - alternating tracker/doctor
Tim - unreliable inventor
Dyslexicon - 1x fullcop
Benson - 2x doctor
Colin - tracker
Proto - 1x... voyeur? w/ parity check between target and target's target
WWH - [1x? unclear] vote thief
iaafr - prevented from claiming via role mechanic
nutella - 1x cleaning nightvig; 80% chance to succeed if vs wolf, [20%?] chance to succeed if vs town

====

NIGHT 1:
Amy - add posts to iaafr - succeeds/no parity
NANOOK - N/A
tutuu - peek colonialbob - peeks as Greek
Hally - redirect Master Radishes to Long Con
Long Con - N/A - BPV broken

Alison - no submission, randed protection to Tim
Tim - build soapbox (+posts) for iaafr
Dyslexicon - holster
Benson - protect tutuu
Colin - track LC - no visit
Proto - target LC - no action used
WWH - votesteal MR
iaafr - ??? - gains posts from both Amy and Tim
nutella - shoot MR

NIGHT 2:
Amy - subtract posts from Dizzy - succeeds/no parity
NANOOK - N/A
tutuu - peek WWH - peeks as French
Hally - redirect colin to WWH
Long Con - N/A

Tim - build security system for tutuu
Dyslexicon - peek WWH - peeks town | loses posts from Amy
Benson - protect tutuu
Colin - track Hally - visited Dizzy [explained by redirection to WWH]
Proto - N/A
WWH - votesteal Dizzy
iaafr - ???
nutella - N/A

NIGHT 3:
Amy - add posts to NANOOK - succeeds/parity
NANOOK - N/A - gains posts from Amy
tutuu - peek nutella - peeks German
Hally - redirect iaafr to WWH
Long Con - N/A

Colin - track Proto - nightkilled
Proto - N/A
WWH - N/A
iaafr - ???
nutella - N/A

NIGHT 4:
Amy - subtract posts from tutuu - succeeds/no parity
NANOOK - N/A
tutuu - peek Hally - fails | loses posts from Amy
Hally - redirect Amy to Long Con [fails via tutuu losing posts from Amy]
Long Con - N/A

iaafr - ???
nutella - N/A

NIGHT 5:
Amy - add posts to Hally - fails
NANOOK - N/A
tutuu - peek Amy - peeks Greek
Hally - redirect tutuu to Amy (who she was already targeting)
Long CON - N/A

nutella - N/A

=========

might stare at this for a bit

[tutuu]

[Amy]

OK.

Night 2 proves that Hally is not a wolf roleblocker, as Dizzy's action would have failed if they were. It doesn't necessarily prove the redirect - there's actually, surprisingly enough, 0 hard evidence showing Hally to be a redirector - but it does indicate in that direction, regardless of their alignment.

tutuu's peek is unprovable because all of her cleared targets flavorclaimed before she peeked them

Hrm this is actually potentially notable. If Hally is ascetic, they MUST be a redirector, or else Colin's track would have failed. At this point I'm willing to assume w!Hally is ascetic in any world; ergo, Hally is a redirector regardless of alignment. Easy.

Only unaccounted for nightkill is Night 2. Possibilities:
- scum tried to kill tutuu
- scum tried to kill tim (probably the least likely world, i'd think?)
- scum tried to kill long con (this almost always requires hally wolf outside the realm of asinine coincidence)
- hally redirected a KP carrying radishes into long con

====

So anyways maybe I'm an idiot for believing 3p claims and we should just dunk Long Con.

Night 1 in a tutuu/Long Con world: probably means that Hally successfully bonked the kill with their redirect. Dunno why they let Radishes carry KP but ok. Off chance they shot Tim, I guess. Either way: Long Con very early on claims a broken vest, before Hally's claim. Probably means that Hally targeting him with the redirect is sheer coincidence? Which is odd, and makes this perhaps the less likely world.

Night 1 in a Hally/Long Con world: honestly I think they try to shoot top town tutuu and get blocked by Benson. This explains tutuu's N1 survival better than pretty much any theory other than "tutuu wolf". Long Con sees this, claims vest broken. Hally claims to have redirected MR onto LC to back both the MR wolf narrative AND the LC vest broken narrative. MR's probably just a hapless villager in this world lol.

LC is presumably not 80% ascetic in this world. Actually I don't buy LC being 80% ascetic at all, because Colin and Proto both had actions succeed on him N2. Fuck. I actually AM an idiot. LC's just a wolf lmao.

And I think the Hally/LC world makes a surprising amount of sense.

This is all pending a reread of Day 5, though.

21/60

[Amy]

Actually I don't buy LC being 80% ascetic at all, because Colin and Proto both had actions succeed on him N2.

if you read literally nothing else i post, read this

and note that literally the only other person to ever target long con is hally

if long con is not 80% ascetic, hally's failure to redirect on n4 is confirmed not due to that

and becomes, fmpov, a straight up lie

[and becomes from everyone else's pov a possible indicator that I'M w/w with LC lmao. but. work with me on this one]

22/60

[tutuu]

Thank god I told Amy she is supposed to be pushing for LC being Mafia cuz she couldnt seem to figure out how to fake her PoE on her own and I took pity on her and thought she could use some help!

[mention]Hally[/mention] how do you respond to this?

Surely you'll vote Amy here right?

[Amy]

[mention]tutuu[/mention] if you're town get your vote off me

if it's LC/hally we lose as soon as they wake up if your vote's still parked

take the time to THINK about it

====

thinking further about 3rd parties or lack thereof

if it's 2/2/1 we've basically already lost, yeah? misdunk for sure ends the game, wolfdunk... sends LC home victorious? which also ends the game, because then we're just at regular parity instead of parity + a townsiding 3p

the only world in which the game isn't already over if LC is really 3p is one in which LC sticks around after his wolf dunks and can kingmaker town in the 1/1/1 f3. but that's... such a ridiculous long shot, and a really stupid way for that role to work imo. so i think if LC is town we might have already lost anyways? idk

the alternative, of course, is that it's 3/2 with LC wolf. which makes the game actually winnable

23/60

[tutuu]

[mention]Amy[/mention]

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Yeh I’ve been having that thought about LC too, that if he exits the game we’re potentially in a no win situation where one mafia can out to win the game

I uh

Didn’t want to say anything about it for obvious reasons tho

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

I guess there’s still the WIFOM if he is 3p that maybe he doesn’t leave the game, but meh, still better not to talk about that imo

[Amy]

Thank god I told Amy she is supposed to be pushing for LC being Mafia cuz she couldnt seem to figure out how to fake her PoE on her own and I took pity on her and thought she could use some help!

@Hally how do you respond to this?

Surely you'll vote Amy here right?

Alright look. I'm about to waste a bunch of words if you're a wolf and you can just ignore them in that world. But I still think it's possible you're town, because you've played super villagery off tone and a Hally/LC world (or even a Hally/Nanook world I guess but I still want to believe Nanook's clear) explains the NK situation that I previously thought was largely only explainable by you being a wolf.

Pull up my ISO. Flick through it a bit. Note my position on KZA - very similar to that of Benson. On him before Nanook was. Do I do that if I'm a wolf? I'll tell you as a bit of self-meta that I wouldn't - I hate bussing, especially unnecessary bussing, and a KZA bus was NOT necessary at that stage of the game, since it was pre-Nanook. Not something I would do as a wolf.

I absolutely would have tried to kill you N1 as a wolf, and I absolutely wouldn't have Radishes carry KP if he were my partner, so there's no way the scum kill would have ever wound up breaking LC's vest if I were a wolf. You can believe I'm wolfing with LC, if you want... but if that's the case, let's just dunk LC? Because he can be a wolf fmpov too - and if we dunk him, and he flips wolf, and you smell a bus, we can do this same song and dance over again in f3 assuming neither of us is the NK.

Note my midgame complacency. Game seemed locked, yeah? Two wolves dead, very likely 3. Billions of seemingly mechanically clear folks running around. What more did I have to do than let the PoE run its course?

Note how I ramped up solving when it became clear that the PoE wasn't running its course correctly, and was going to land on me. Take a look at said solving. Note my perspective. Ask yourself if it legitimately seems like fake wolf solving.

I don't know what more I can do to convince you that I'm a villager. I don't know what more I can do to convince you that the nightkills look completely different if I'm a wolf - because, again, the PoE was always coming for me eventually; as a wolf, I'd need a way to widen the PoE, find people to kill before me. You think I'd choose to do so by tinfoiling the cop instead of just killing her and pushing on unconfirmed villagers?

So look. Don't snapvote. Let's chill and figure it out. I don't even know if I'm sold on LC wolf. I don't know WHAT I'm sold on. But it's 6 AM and I don't want to lose to a town on town vote while I'm asleep.

twentywhatever/60

[Amy]

I'm gonna go to bed.

If the game's over when I wake up, know that I tried my ass off when we got down to the wire and I'm not sure what else I could have done short of "not be multitabling for the first half of the game". And I sincerely apologize for constantly dropping huge bits of analysis and then fucking off to sleep before I can properly contextualize them. Sorry iaafr.

[Hally]

posting to confirm i see the red check

now you know it’s not me/nanook as wolves

when long con checks in you’ll know i’m not wolves with him either and whether nanook/lc are wolves together

LC is presumably not 80% ascetic in this world. Actually I don't buy LC being 80% ascetic at all, because Colin and Proto both had actions succeed on him N2. Fuck. I actually AM an idiot. LC's just a wolf lmao.

how do you know that?

like, if they were blocked by LC’s asceticism, they’d get no result, right? what if they just interpreted “no result”
as “didn’t go anywhere?”

also im pretty damn sure radishes was a wolf and i know that i redirected him to lc. i also know lc claimed to be hit before i said that. this isn’t possible if radishes is a wolf and lc is also a wolf unless lc actually just fakeclaimed he was hit when he saw the failed nk without even knowing my action

[tutuu]

and a KZA bus was NOT necessary at that stage of the game

He literally self-voted lmao

I absolutely would have tried to kill you N1 as a wolf

I know that's what you tried to do. Benson saved me N1.

You can't convince me that you're villager because I am immune to manipulation.

--------

Hally, if you're pretty damn sure Radishes is a wolf, surely Amy is finally outed scum from your PoV, right?

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Posting to confirm I’m not on a team with Hally

[Amy]

posting to confirm i see the red check

now you know it’s not me/nanook as wolves

when long con checks in you’ll know i’m not wolves with him either and whether nanook/lc are wolves together

LC is presumably not 80% ascetic in this world. Actually I don't buy LC being 80% ascetic at all, because Colin and Proto both had actions succeed on him N2. Fuck. I actually AM an idiot. LC's just a wolf lmao.

how do you know that?

like, if they were blocked by LC’s asceticism, they’d get no result, right? what if they just interpreted “no result”
as “didn’t go anywhere?”

also im pretty damn sure radishes was a wolf and i know that i redirected him to lc. i also know lc claimed to be hit before i said that. this isn’t possible if radishes is a wolf and lc is also a wolf unless lc actually just fakeclaimed he was hit when he saw the failed nk without even knowing my action

i got an explicit fail result when my action failed. i suspect proto/colin would get the same. idr about colin but i remember proto specifically worded his as "target did not use an action"

also gonna point out that it's entirely possible to yolo fakeclaim a broken vest when your nk fails without knowing anything else that went down. just finished a game on DLP where i snapclaimed JOAT after our N3 kill failed and very nearly won the ensuing claim battle (wound up dunking outside the claims and then i killed my counterclaimant overnight). LC being a wolf pretty much demands he be competent at fakeclaiming, given all the crumbs, so that's not something i'm ruling out

and i'm still not 100% on radishes being a wolf, though i agree he looks v wolfy.

i have more thoughts but they're not coming oput coherently i'm gopnna sleep for real

[Amy]

and a KZA bus was NOT necessary at that stage of the game

He literally self-voted lmao

I absolutely would have tried to kill you N1 as a wolf

I know that's what you tried to do. Benson saved me N1.

You can't convince me that you're villager because I am immune to manipulation.

--------

Hally, if you're pretty damn sure Radishes is a wolf, surely Amy is finally outed scum from your PoV, right?

kza didn't fucking selfvote until nanook slammed him into the turf

i was on kza BEFORE nanook slammed him into the turf

you see what i'm saying? me pushing kza there would have been completely needless. "blah blah distancing" yeah but kza was on nobody's radar and me saying "i have no read on kza because he's not posting" would have been the easiest goddamn thing in the world

i'm done i'm out i'm sleeping. if you're town and you don't unvote me then you'll have to live with the consequences when LC checks in shrug

[tutuu]

Just like Rasputin drank small doses of poison daily to make himself immune, I too ingest daily doses of AtE to make myself immune.

Your flimsy AtE punches dink me for no more than 1 damage per hit, Amy.

You will remember me for the rest of your lfie. I am your biggest nightmare.

But to me, you are just another wolf lynch.

[Amy]

way tutuu's pushing on me now feels SUPER super wolfy but i know I'm highkey vulnerable to omgus when it feels like the person pushing me is talking past me and just trying to get me dunked... which sadly is not always wolf indicative

idk if she's a wolf hopefully town finds me i can chill

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Tutu if you’re town it probably is correct to not be voting yet fwiw

[tutuu]

Tutu if you’re town it probably is correct to not be voting yet fwiw

Nanook, if you're town, you should have listened to my reads ages ago.

I am not unvoting the wolf.

[Hally]

we don’t actually know who the N1 kill was on in a wolf!radishes world because i either redirected his kill or it got saved by one of the docs

so i don’t get the argument of “i would have killed x N1 as a wolf”

the wolf kill is literally missing N1

by N2, tutuu already had tim’s security system, which would put the final wolf if they tried to nk tutuu and the security thing worked

would the last wolf risk straight up losing like that? idk. the alternative is lose via getting poe’d out by the clears? or just getting redpeeked