Philosophers' Mafia [ENDGAME]

[Long Con]

I gathered together my evidence of true roleclaim.

Spoiler: show

Today, I'll probably end up sheeping whoever I trust the most. I am currently town, and my role will develop less than privately if I survive. I would like to survive.

Some clear inferences can be made, plus you ever read that thing about how people sometimes use a word twice when it's important? Day 0 post. It's been true from the start.

I used my 1 shot doc on tutuu if we're all claiming everything

Hoping he was the MK?

No, I was.

wdym?

I mean they broke my vest.

This was an important post.

One thing I do like about nutella's claim is that it has an 80% in it. My role also has that percentage involved, so that helps me believe her.

Still true, although now it's verified by a tutuu green check.

hard claim town redirector

i redirected radishes to long con last night. radishes was mafia and i jacked his kill

GOTTEM

O my god if this and the other stuff is all true...!!

gonna make a scummy request, but while I am catching up, can you let me know what you did last night and who you targetted?

I targetted nobody; I don't have that kind of role. You will come across summaries of the powers as you catch up, there are several.

Lack of me targeting anyone has been checked by two trackers, if I'm not mistaken. I like this as evidence that I'm not the proposed role blocker that really needs to die.

There's more, but it's passive.

I have to be part of this vote. [VOTE: proto] aubergine

Proto looked like he was about to get hammered, and I couldn't afford to sit out if he was the last of four scum, because it would lose me the game. That's the only "non-town" behaviour that you have to worry about, and I am perfectly willing to work with the town on this kind of thing. Like, no hammering unless everyone is ready, and you just let me get my vote in. If there's a conflict of interest there, it's razor-thin and I can hardly see it even when I squint.

[VOTE: Benson] aubergine and I guess that's a hammer. Your wish has been granted, kind beluga. I enjoyed playing with you.

I had to hammer. I would have left it, but I had to do it. I can't really discuss why.

I am not Greek. I am not classical or classicism.

Is it hammered?? [VOTE: proto] aubergine

Nooooooooo

LC are u gonna die for missing that hammer lol

maybe

or worse

I haven't read the last three pages.

Hey guys, if you don't mind, please don't hammer again without me.

I don't think proto is the last wolf. Is he the last wolf? His posts are awesomely towny if he's a wolf.

i think protos town flip was pretty villagery of him ngl

wait he flipped??? Oh I'm a fool

I am the best derpclear guy in town, and I accept all challengers

i redirected amy to long con

she cannot be the last wolf remaining

Solid plan. Keep tossing them my way, I can take it.

What if I'm just not town?

[Long Con]

If that's your POE, then it'e either Amy is the last wolf, or it's both of them. If Hally is a wolf, then Radishes is not a wolf, then Amy is a wolf. Barring Godfather-style false clears.

In both those worlds, Amy is a wolf. The game is SO mechanically narrowed down, this isn't the time to be lynching a neutral, Town-friendly role. Come on, rabbit, let's lynch a wolf instead! I'm on your side, I want to lynch wolves, I need to lynch wolves, I am not a threat or a win con necessity for you!!

[iaafr]

still ultimately waiting to see + consider what amy comes up with anyhow

but yes i still havent thought out all the possibilities of why tutuus check on hally failed

i feel like roleblocker is fundamentally more likely than ascetic but it all feels like idle speculation because it's just a black box of unknown scum roles



linki edit: yeah i mean ive seen all those posts and i see how they fit into your narrative, but none of it is out of the realm of "scum roleplaying that role" to me. sorry.

one funny thing those quotes did achieve is getting me to tinfoil lc/nutella again lmao



atp it would probably be amy posts that could potentially shatter my worldview if anything but i cant imagine what that would entail

[Amy]

Hm.

Hally/Radishes w/w feels like a really unlikely world now that I'm reading it.

For that to be the case, w!Radishes would have had to have wolfbros Scirrus and KZA as his two strongest scumreads on D1, and that's... probably not something a wolfbro does. I CAN see w!Radishes forced to put KZA in his PoE given their shared experience with Benson and thus a probable need to not have Benson be like "dude how are you townreading KZA?" but in that world the Scirrus vote is an excuse to NOT be voting KZA.

If Hally/Radishes isn't w/w... that might clear Hally outside of 3 wolves remaining? 1 wolf remaining worlds ~always require w!Radishes. 2 wolf remaining worlds... require the starting team to have 4 if Radishes is v. Maybe it's possible in a Hally/tutuu world. I don't think we live in a Hally/tutuu world given recent events lol.

If Radishes wolf:
NANOOK cleared off my scan
LC almost certainly just 3p
nutella cleared off killing Radishes
Hally v off above

Which leaves exactly iaafr/tutuu.

It can't be that easy. And I'm still not 100% on Radishes being a wolf.

I'm gonna keep reading.

32/60

[Amy]

I have decided I will not be voting Hally today unless I see something in this reading that drastically changes my opinion.

I'll probably doublecheck how the start of today played out just to be sure, but. I think they're never w/w with Radishes. And I definitely see w!Radishes with the benefit of hindsight.

33/60

[Amy]

i really desire to play mafia and to get in the thick of things and u know accusations throwing around AtE OMGUS lamist wifom all of those flying over my head like a bar brawl and suddenly there's a gangster right who shoots up the bar with a tommy gun but instead of bullet it flies tunneling, fake claiming, tmi, all those good stuff

whats the hold up lets brawl already please. iaafr obv mafia. nutella obv mafia. tutuu town. proto town. alison town. tim town. beluga whale town. nanook town. radish town. amy town.

anyone who disagrees with me is confirmed member of the mafia

anyone who agrees with me and has a gun please use it to shoot someone in our poe which we all reached a consensus on based off of our town core

6/60

you’re still my favorite

WTF WHEN DID HALLY GET IN THE GAME LOOOL hi hally!!!

...unironically never w/w

34/60

[Amy]

some assorted thoughts as i finish up my d1 read

I actually just went and quickly skimmed Hally's ISO in champs g8 (where they were a wolf). Makes me more comfortable townreading them here. Questions:content ratio was all out of wack in that game, with a lot of the questions being naked/neutrally posed. With most of the questions they've posed here, I can tell exactly what it is that they're picking at. I can see WHY they're asking the questions. If they're a wolf here they've gotten significantly better at feigning a solvy real-time process.

MR's townread on Benson can easily be TMI in hindsight. Volume cleared him v early on dubious grounds. (unrelated aside: lmao fuck how did we ever yeet benson. i regret my inactivity itg. that dude was never a wolf after the kza flip)

Honestly the Benson interactions in general read as w/v to me, given their past history; Benson knows MR and is seeing grounds to be suspicious of him, while MR like. Does just enough to get Benson off his back, tosses him an easy townread, and tries to focus on the rest of the game.

What is w!rabbit's goal here if he's thinking he can chain an LC dunk into me? He'd know I'm town, he'd PRESUMABLY not be bussing LC, so... what? Are we in the 3/3/1 world and the LC dunk ends the game? Is he that confident that a dunk on LC here leads to me or v!Hally tomorrow even if LC doesn't flip red?

Mm. I keep coming back to "flip tutuu and figure it out from there." Her posting isn't wolfy - like she's a really fucking good wolf if she's wolfing - but the PoE grows super tight. I really just need to get to N1 into SOD2 in my reread so I can figure out whether tutuu/MR is ever viable.

Hell Hally/Radishes can still be v/v with nutella/tutuu wolves but that returns to determining Radishes' alignment lol.

What mechs did I have that made nutella look clear even if Radishes was v. I don't remember. I need to self ISO.

Hitting post reply to keep this somewhat legible + because I have posts to spare.

35/60

[Amy]

thinking further

occam's razor suggests nutella v regardless of radishes' alignment; nutella v makes radishes w much much more likely.

for nutella to be a wolf, either she has to be a godfather or she has to be teamed with tutuu; either way, it also requires either radishes being town kp or hally also being a wolf. i find this a convoluted set of hoops to jump through and am thus comfortable locking nutella v and not revisiting unless the game is still going after both tutuu and hally are dead (and flipped red)

...right.

MR being town KP would still be extremely coincidental. There's always the chance LC is full of shit, I guess.

In v!Radishes world... idk. I'm really coming around on Hally being a villager, which would mean MR was still redirected to LC. Could LC have lied about losing a vest? Possible. Could wolves have tried to shoot LC by sheer coincidence? Also possible. Radishes doesn't necessarily have to be town KP here; given LC's claim, we don't even know if Hally's redirect succeeded.

idk, if MR is a wolf nutella's just town, unless she's for some reason a 1x cleaning wolf vig that shot her own teammate (spoiler: she isn't). If I can feel comfortable on w!MR, my PoE gets reeeeeeeeeeeal tight.

Possible dunking LC is still the correct option, though.

36/60

[Amy]

Mmm. OK. Here's what I'm marinating. Remember that world I called too easy where MR/rabbit/tutuu were the wolves? I'm back there.

Some level 1 KZA wagon stuff: of living players, Nanook myself nutella LC and Hally were all on KZA. tutuu and iaafr were on Hally (well, iaafr joke selfvoted when it didn't matter, but he made a move towards Hally at a time when it definitely did). If KZA wasn't bussed, that just solves the game right there.

But OK, that's too level one on its own. Let's backburner that and continue.

Every player alive wanted bob dead after D1. Every player alive wanted Radishes dead after D1. No cred should be given for simply wolfreading these people.

Thing is, Hally was burying MR since even before the botched Nanook interaction. And the botched Nanook interaction was REALLY bad. So I think Radishes was a wolf, and I don't think Hally bussed him.

So you're the last 2 wolves on N1. KZA just got dunked. MR is consensus. Bob is consensus. You need to go deep. What do you do in that situation?

If you're not consensus town, you kill the people who are, so that you can take control of the threadstate. If you ARE consensus town, you start killing the PoE to maintain plausible deniability.

Now, obviously it's hard to call the N1 kill target if you assume Radishes was a wolf, because Hally claimed a redirect. But here's the thing: LC lost a vest, yeah? And he's 80% action immune. I somewhat think it's unlikely that the redirect would succeed and then the kill would ALSO succeed, yeah? Unless I'm misinterpreting the minutiae of LC's role.

So what if the wolves tried to kill LC anyways?

Think about it: it fits the pattern of their later kills. Tim wasn't consensus but had a decent PR; Colin wasn't consensus but had a decent PR; WWH was about as nonconsensus as a greenpeek could feasibly be. LC was a mid tier and had previously softed his role in ways that could be interpreted as an obvious, and potentially good, PR. The pattern is there.

The question then becomes "who would try to kill Long Con?" Hally and nutella were somewhat PoE-ish, and would probably shoot at the top tier villagers, who at the time were... tutuu and iaafr. Actually they'd probably both be aiming at iaafr in the level 1 world - he hadn't launched into the mechanical tinfoil on their slots yet, but he was certainly not strongly townreading either of them, and makes a lot of sense as an N1 kill from a team with those players on it.

tutuu and iaafr, on the other hand, both would have a vested interest in not thinning out the top of people's townlists. They would need cover. They would shoot LC.

Phase 2 was always going to be bussing bob. I think any wolfteam would want bob to die before Radishes, and I think faking a redpeek was always part of the plan. I doubt they anticipated the MR kill OR the bob dayvig, which probably accelerated the timetable to uncomfortable degrees.

Hally will ask "why fake a redcheck to bus?" The answer is twofold: it gives you mad cred if no other cop claims, and it massacres discussion for the day. If you're going to bus, you might as well do it in a way that gives town basically nothing to work with. This is part of why Nanook is never a tinfoil until f3; that shot is stupidly protown and is literally only useful if he's a lone wolf trying to survive to endgame - and he's never w/w with MR, so he's never a lone wolf, so he's just town.

But anyways. If they're wolves, rabbit and tutuu acquired cred through a D2 powerbus, have killed mid-tier townies to lend feasibility their own survival, and are generally trying very very hard to get myself or Hally dunked. rabbit's wanted me dead from the word go; his tunnel's been occasionally justified by my lack of effort, but I think I've espoused some legitimately townie viewpoints to the degree that if he's legitimately a villager and hasn't found me yet, he has some ridiculous preconceived notions on how hard I'm able to project town as a villager. tutuu's posting... hasn't been wolfy, really. She's erratic in a way that's probably NAI for her given her general personality, but there's definitely some depth of thought. I'm just... not sure it's not fakeable, and I think she fits too well as a wolf in the gamestate. I think claiming a failed check on Hally was largely an attempt to bury me or them somehow, and I think the fact that they're still alive and none of their checks died until last night is the single biggest indictment of them.

There's a chance that I'm wrong, in which case it's like. Idk always nutella probably? nutella/hally would probably have to be it but. I honestly don't think it's nutella/Hally at this point, I think they're playing like villagers who have found each other. I don't like nutella's play that much in a vacuum but I'm really coming around on Hally here.

And I kinda wanna kill LC anyways. I'm willing to bank the game on there not being 3 wolves left and we can all loltsp in postgame if there are. I think another night of mechanics is good, and I think the opportunity for me to bounce off people in real time is VERY good.

Thinking further, I think the thing that confuses me the most is tutuu's insistence that Hally would be trying to bury me if they were a v, and vice-versa. Like... we know that LC's claimed 3p. v!Hally knows a failed redirect isn't w/w indicative, and I know that it isn't w!Hally trying to manufacture a redcheck because their reaction to LC's claim made it really fucking obvious that they actually expected their redirect to succeed. Neither of us has any reason to bury the other. The perspective that we should be? Is super off. Unless I'm bad and missing something. But I don't think I am.

I'm not voting until EOD probably. I want to discuss this in real-time and everyone except the 3p is out of posts, I think. Sorry for the monologue. I kinda think LC's the best bet for safety reasons ATM? But I think iaafr/tutuu's the most likely team. MR wolf makes nutella lock v and it makes Hally v make too much sense. You're sold on Hally being a wolf? Explain how they're w/w with MR, or explain why MR is v, and either way find a partner for them that isn't me, because I continue to know my own alignment and it continues to be town.

37/60

[Amy]

Feel free to tattoo the above post onto my back if Hally's somehow managed to pocket me without lifting a finger.

Don't think they have. Feel more decent about the solve than I have any right to. Not decent enough that I'm snap attempting to get one of them wagoned over LC, but... decent.

Want Nanook specifically to weigh in given that you're literally the clearest person in the game fmpov and I need a sounding board... and because I think you have posts left lol.

38/60

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Yeh I have a few posts left, 15-20 I think

My eyes are glazing a bit but I’ll power through the rest before I fall asleep

Skim says you’re mostly making sense I think?

[Amy]

Honestly, this also explains a lot about why the casing of me has been so sticky, and why the tinfoil of Hally/nutella has been so sticky.

Rabbit knows he's in the portion of the game that isn't able to mechanically clear themselves, unlike tutuu. He knows that eventually given enough flips his number's going to be called. He needs to keep as many people lower than him as possible while slowly chipping away at some of the people above him.

That's why he's been so persistent with the tinfoils. That's why it's only now that tutuu has suddenly exploded in Hally's direction. The non-clear PoE is too small. It's time to cash in on the Hally suspicion - and barring that, maybe they can still get me dunked.

Sorry for not rolling over and dying. My village game is 10x better late than early anyways.

39/60

[Amy]

Yeh I have a few posts left, 15-20 I think

My eyes are glazing a bit but I’ll power through the rest before I fall asleep

Skim says you’re mostly making sense I think?

Honestly you're welcome to sleep, I literally just glanced the clock. Didn't realize it was fuckin' 5:30 AM my time lmao. I'm about to head off myself, will be back tomorrow afternoon to chat probably? I'll have to work + take care of some other stuff but I'm going to make an effort to make time for this.

40/60

[Amy]

Actually fuck I'm suddenly reneging on my certainty of 5 wolves. 12/5/1 is kinda shitty even if LC was originally town and has a townsided wincon.

Fuck me am I looking for 1 wolf or 2

I'll rethink when I'm less tired. iaafr/tutuu is still the world with 5 wolves and radishes as one of them but I'm no longer certain that's where we are when I step back and look at the numbers.

41/60

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Yeh I have a few posts left, 15-20 I think

My eyes are glazing a bit but I’ll power through the rest before I fall asleep

Skim says you’re mostly making sense I think?

Honestly you're welcome to sleep, I literally just glanced the clock. Didn't realize it was fuckin' 5:30 AM my time lmao. I'm about to head off myself, will be back tomorrow afternoon to chat probably? I'll have to work + take care of some other stuff but I'm going to make an effort to make time for this.

40/60

Yeh let’s talk more tomorrow, I have errands and work to do but can probably be around for a bit afternoon EDT



I’m in a bit of a dilemma where tutu is like...super fucking townie on tone...but, like, you’re also 100% right that the kills make perfect sense for her to be mafia. That’s probably the most compelling argument in my mind actually, I was reading the kills as indicative of a godfather, but they also definitely fit with the claimed cop being scum. So yeah. I didn’t think I’d get to a point this game where I’d be considering tutu as mafia this game tbh, but yeh, I think it’s definitely a viable world.

I also don’t think I want to lock in worlds today? Tbh I’m still pretty convinced killing LC is the safest play, and lock in worlds tomorrow. If there’s three wolves alive I would bet hard on LC being one of them that tried to take himself off the table, but more likely I think there’s two wolves and he’s 3p lying about his wincon. So yeah, what you’re saying makes sense, let’s talk more tomorrow (real time) and tomorrow game time.


Tbh I’m still not, like, completely sure that you’re town, but you seem town and more importantly you’re the only one with posts left so I’m gonna save any evaluation for tomorrow and pretend you’re lock town today kek

[Amy]

meh if radishes was a wolf nutella's still clear and hally's still very towny. tutuu/iaafr just becomes a poe instead of a team and in a 5/1/1 world we actually have a misdunk to work with

4 wolves with v radishes is maybe the one i should be concerned about idk

sleep

42/60

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Yeh 11/5/1 is pretty uh

Dicey

But even in a scum tutu world town has a bunch of power, so it’s not, like....I’m not laughing it off the way I normally would be

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

And regardless I think it’s better to assume a world with two alive until/unless it’s proven false, safer to assume two and be pleasantly surprised than assume one and lose to a team kek

[Long Con]

If you all are looking for a safe lynch and you're too scared to pull the trigger on a possible wolf, then why not just vote No Lynch and keep me around for voting power?

It's pretty clear that the vibe around me is that you believe my claim, and lynching me is seen as a way to *not* kill a villager.

If I were daykilled right now, would you vote No Lynch or would you lynch someone?

[nutella]

Spoiler: show

Mmm. OK. Here's what I'm marinating. Remember that world I called too easy where MR/rabbit/tutuu were the wolves? I'm back there.

Some level 1 KZA wagon stuff: of living players, Nanook myself nutella LC and Hally were all on KZA. tutuu and iaafr were on Hally (well, iaafr joke selfvoted when it didn't matter, but he made a move towards Hally at a time when it definitely did). If KZA wasn't bussed, that just solves the game right there.

But OK, that's too level one on its own. Let's backburner that and continue.

Every player alive wanted bob dead after D1. Every player alive wanted Radishes dead after D1. No cred should be given for simply wolfreading these people.

Thing is, Hally was burying MR since even before the botched Nanook interaction. And the botched Nanook interaction was REALLY bad. So I think Radishes was a wolf, and I don't think Hally bussed him.

So you're the last 2 wolves on N1. KZA just got dunked. MR is consensus. Bob is consensus. You need to go deep. What do you do in that situation?

If you're not consensus town, you kill the people who are, so that you can take control of the threadstate. If you ARE consensus town, you start killing the PoE to maintain plausible deniability.

Now, obviously it's hard to call the N1 kill target if you assume Radishes was a wolf, because Hally claimed a redirect. But here's the thing: LC lost a vest, yeah? And he's 80% action immune. I somewhat think it's unlikely that the redirect would succeed and then the kill would ALSO succeed, yeah? Unless I'm misinterpreting the minutiae of LC's role.

So what if the wolves tried to kill LC anyways?

Think about it: it fits the pattern of their later kills. Tim wasn't consensus but had a decent PR; Colin wasn't consensus but had a decent PR; WWH was about as nonconsensus as a greenpeek could feasibly be. LC was a mid tier and had previously softed his role in ways that could be interpreted as an obvious, and potentially good, PR. The pattern is there.

The question then becomes "who would try to kill Long Con?" Hally and nutella were somewhat PoE-ish, and would probably shoot at the top tier villagers, who at the time were... tutuu and iaafr. Actually they'd probably both be aiming at iaafr in the level 1 world - he hadn't launched into the mechanical tinfoil on their slots yet, but he was certainly not strongly townreading either of them, and makes a lot of sense as an N1 kill from a team with those players on it.

tutuu and iaafr, on the other hand, both would have a vested interest in not thinning out the top of people's townlists. They would need cover. They would shoot LC.

Phase 2 was always going to be bussing bob. I think any wolfteam would want bob to die before Radishes, and I think faking a redpeek was always part of the plan. I doubt they anticipated the MR kill OR the bob dayvig, which probably accelerated the timetable to uncomfortable degrees.

Hally will ask "why fake a redcheck to bus?" The answer is twofold: it gives you mad cred if no other cop claims, and it massacres discussion for the day. If you're going to bus, you might as well do it in a way that gives town basically nothing to work with. This is part of why Nanook is never a tinfoil until f3; that shot is stupidly protown and is literally only useful if he's a lone wolf trying to survive to endgame - and he's never w/w with MR, so he's never a lone wolf, so he's just town.

But anyways. If they're wolves, rabbit and tutuu acquired cred through a D2 powerbus, have killed mid-tier townies to lend feasibility their own survival, and are generally trying very very hard to get myself or Hally dunked. rabbit's wanted me dead from the word go; his tunnel's been occasionally justified by my lack of effort, but I think I've espoused some legitimately townie viewpoints to the degree that if he's legitimately a villager and hasn't found me yet, he has some ridiculous preconceived notions on how hard I'm able to project town as a villager. tutuu's posting... hasn't been wolfy, really. She's erratic in a way that's probably NAI for her given her general personality, but there's definitely some depth of thought. I'm just... not sure it's not fakeable, and I think she fits too well as a wolf in the gamestate. I think claiming a failed check on Hally was largely an attempt to bury me or them somehow, and I think the fact that they're still alive and none of their checks died until last night is the single biggest indictment of them.

There's a chance that I'm wrong, in which case it's like. Idk always nutella probably? nutella/hally would probably have to be it but. I honestly don't think it's nutella/Hally at this point, I think they're playing like villagers who have found each other. I don't like nutella's play that much in a vacuum but I'm really coming around on Hally here.

And I kinda wanna kill LC anyways. I'm willing to bank the game on there not being 3 wolves left and we can all loltsp in postgame if there are. I think another night of mechanics is good, and I think the opportunity for me to bounce off people in real time is VERY good.

Thinking further, I think the thing that confuses me the most is tutuu's insistence that Hally would be trying to bury me if they were a v, and vice-versa. Like... we know that LC's claimed 3p. v!Hally knows a failed redirect isn't w/w indicative, and I know that it isn't w!Hally trying to manufacture a redcheck because their reaction to LC's claim made it really fucking obvious that they actually expected their redirect to succeed. Neither of us has any reason to bury the other. The perspective that we should be? Is super off. Unless I'm bad and missing something. But I don't think I am.

I'm not voting until EOD probably. I want to discuss this in real-time and everyone except the 3p is out of posts, I think. Sorry for the monologue. I kinda think LC's the best bet for safety reasons ATM? But I think iaafr/tutuu's the most likely team. MR wolf makes nutella lock v and it makes Hally v make too much sense. You're sold on Hally being a wolf? Explain how they're w/w with MR, or explain why MR is v, and either way find a partner for them that isn't me, because I continue to know my own alignment and it continues to be town.

37/60

this makes.......so much sense

lol im sold on iaafr tutuu gj

[iaafr]

Spoiler: show

Mmm. OK. Here's what I'm marinating. Remember that world I called too easy where MR/rabbit/tutuu were the wolves? I'm back there.

Some level 1 KZA wagon stuff: of living players, Nanook myself nutella LC and Hally were all on KZA. tutuu and iaafr were on Hally (well, iaafr joke selfvoted when it didn't matter, but he made a move towards Hally at a time when it definitely did). If KZA wasn't bussed, that just solves the game right there.

But OK, that's too level one on its own. Let's backburner that and continue.

Every player alive wanted bob dead after D1. Every player alive wanted Radishes dead after D1. No cred should be given for simply wolfreading these people.

Thing is, Hally was burying MR since even before the botched Nanook interaction. And the botched Nanook interaction was REALLY bad. So I think Radishes was a wolf, and I don't think Hally bussed him.

So you're the last 2 wolves on N1. KZA just got dunked. MR is consensus. Bob is consensus. You need to go deep. What do you do in that situation?

If you're not consensus town, you kill the people who are, so that you can take control of the threadstate. If you ARE consensus town, you start killing the PoE to maintain plausible deniability.

Now, obviously it's hard to call the N1 kill target if you assume Radishes was a wolf, because Hally claimed a redirect. But here's the thing: LC lost a vest, yeah? And he's 80% action immune. I somewhat think it's unlikely that the redirect would succeed and then the kill would ALSO succeed, yeah? Unless I'm misinterpreting the minutiae of LC's role.

So what if the wolves tried to kill LC anyways?

Think about it: it fits the pattern of their later kills. Tim wasn't consensus but had a decent PR; Colin wasn't consensus but had a decent PR; WWH was about as nonconsensus as a greenpeek could feasibly be. LC was a mid tier and had previously softed his role in ways that could be interpreted as an obvious, and potentially good, PR. The pattern is there.

The question then becomes "who would try to kill Long Con?" Hally and nutella were somewhat PoE-ish, and would probably shoot at the top tier villagers, who at the time were... tutuu and iaafr. Actually they'd probably both be aiming at iaafr in the level 1 world - he hadn't launched into the mechanical tinfoil on their slots yet, but he was certainly not strongly townreading either of them, and makes a lot of sense as an N1 kill from a team with those players on it.

tutuu and iaafr, on the other hand, both would have a vested interest in not thinning out the top of people's townlists. They would need cover. They would shoot LC.

Phase 2 was always going to be bussing bob. I think any wolfteam would want bob to die before Radishes, and I think faking a redpeek was always part of the plan. I doubt they anticipated the MR kill OR the bob dayvig, which probably accelerated the timetable to uncomfortable degrees.

Hally will ask "why fake a redcheck to bus?" The answer is twofold: it gives you mad cred if no other cop claims, and it massacres discussion for the day. If you're going to bus, you might as well do it in a way that gives town basically nothing to work with. This is part of why Nanook is never a tinfoil until f3; that shot is stupidly protown and is literally only useful if he's a lone wolf trying to survive to endgame - and he's never w/w with MR, so he's never a lone wolf, so he's just town.

But anyways. If they're wolves, rabbit and tutuu acquired cred through a D2 powerbus, have killed mid-tier townies to lend feasibility their own survival, and are generally trying very very hard to get myself or Hally dunked. rabbit's wanted me dead from the word go; his tunnel's been occasionally justified by my lack of effort, but I think I've espoused some legitimately townie viewpoints to the degree that if he's legitimately a villager and hasn't found me yet, he has some ridiculous preconceived notions on how hard I'm able to project town as a villager. tutuu's posting... hasn't been wolfy, really. She's erratic in a way that's probably NAI for her given her general personality, but there's definitely some depth of thought. I'm just... not sure it's not fakeable, and I think she fits too well as a wolf in the gamestate. I think claiming a failed check on Hally was largely an attempt to bury me or them somehow, and I think the fact that they're still alive and none of their checks died until last night is the single biggest indictment of them.

There's a chance that I'm wrong, in which case it's like. Idk always nutella probably? nutella/hally would probably have to be it but. I honestly don't think it's nutella/Hally at this point, I think they're playing like villagers who have found each other. I don't like nutella's play that much in a vacuum but I'm really coming around on Hally here.

And I kinda wanna kill LC anyways. I'm willing to bank the game on there not being 3 wolves left and we can all loltsp in postgame if there are. I think another night of mechanics is good, and I think the opportunity for me to bounce off people in real time is VERY good.

Thinking further, I think the thing that confuses me the most is tutuu's insistence that Hally would be trying to bury me if they were a v, and vice-versa. Like... we know that LC's claimed 3p. v!Hally knows a failed redirect isn't w/w indicative, and I know that it isn't w!Hally trying to manufacture a redcheck because their reaction to LC's claim made it really fucking obvious that they actually expected their redirect to succeed. Neither of us has any reason to bury the other. The perspective that we should be? Is super off. Unless I'm bad and missing something. But I don't think I am.

I'm not voting until EOD probably. I want to discuss this in real-time and everyone except the 3p is out of posts, I think. Sorry for the monologue. I kinda think LC's the best bet for safety reasons ATM? But I think iaafr/tutuu's the most likely team. MR wolf makes nutella lock v and it makes Hally v make too much sense. You're sold on Hally being a wolf? Explain how they're w/w with MR, or explain why MR is v, and either way find a partner for them that isn't me, because I continue to know my own alignment and it continues to be town.

37/60

this makes.......so much sense

lol im sold on iaafr tutuu gj

Jesus Christ

[iaafr]

I'm SO MAD AMY DIDNT DIE D3 I FUCKING HATE THIS GAME

[iaafr]

IM SO MAD NUTELLAS ALIVE INSTEAD OF BENSON

[nutella]

lol

[iaafr]

I voted LC IDGAF

Nutella if you're town you're like

the worst parts of me without the actual stability in lategame

[nutella]

this isn't town iaafr lmaoooooo it just isn't

[iaafr]

actually fuck it I'll invite let's see what happens in the eod hour

[iaafr]

this isn't town iaafr lmaoooooo it just isn't

really hope you're town so you find out how bad you are postgame

[nutella]

My village game is 10x better late than early anyways.

I'm SO MAD AMY DIDNT DIE D3 I FUCKING HATE THIS GAME

[iaafr]

vote me genius

[nutella]

Literally outed

[iaafr]

hey Amy LC if you can win on a 2 scum world pls just hammer me I want out

[iaafr]

this game format is so fucking dumb

fucking d3 hammer while I'm postcapped

so I have to live with this nutella player

[iaafr]

literal honorary scum or falsely cleared scum

[iaafr]

postcap Pius majority enabled LOOOOOOOOOOOOL


don't even have the energy to make it a meme

fuck this game fuck this town

[iaafr]

MODKILL ME YOU SHOULDVE MODKILLED ME N3

[iaafr]

[mention]TonyStarkPrime[/mention]

[TonyStarkPrime]

Good day, scholars, sages, and scribes.

If you find yourself frustrated at any time during your deliberations, whether you are angry with another participant or you have a grievance with your host, please direct any of that displeasure to my inbox privately and we can engage in friendly discourse over your concerns.

May your time here be intellectually stimulating and civil.

hey guys, please keep this in mind and keep personal attacks to a minimum. Tensions can run high, but please remain civil in the thread. I'm sure Epi would love to hear from you if you have complaints, or you can direct them directly at me.

also rabbit you're at 61 posts
linki now you're at like 65

[iaafr]

Good day, scholars, sages, and scribes.

If you find yourself frustrated at any time during your deliberations, whether you are angry with another participant or you have a grievance with your host, please direct any of that displeasure to my inbox privately and we can engage in friendly discourse over your concerns.

May your time here be intellectually stimulating and civil.

hey guys, please keep this in mind and keep personal attacks to a minimum. Tensions can run high, but please remain civil in the thread. I'm sure Epi would love to hear from you if you have complaints, or you can direct them directly at me.

also rabbit you're at 61 posts
linki now you're at like 65

literally had trouble figuring out who was the mod when I wanted to vent earlier because it's fucking buried on page 10 and there's no indication on page 1

[iaafr]

LIKE I WANNA VENT TO EPI LMFAOOOO

[nutella]

well.

i really think iaafr is just outed with some of the stuff he's said and his overall tone being wrong and the way he's approached amy (and me tbh) all game

but i should acknowledge there's still a chance of amy w and so yeah we probably do just yeet lc today and see what happens overnight

glgl

[nutella]

oh fuck i didn't know the thread was locked again gj me guess i lose more posts lmao

does this mean rabbit is getting mked after all

[TonyStarkPrime]

iaafr has been modkilled for trying to get modkilled. :P.

He was some town dude i don't know. Rousseau. His role was he decides ties and can't say anything about it but it gets revealed upon death and some other stuff, I'll update this when I get home. Or I won't.

Don't talk about modkills.

etc. etc.

Additionally, the day ends immediately. I don't know what I'll do about night length, I'll try to adjust back to 9pm if I get actions in by then. The poll will be closed.

linki: nutella is locked in mod jail for posting in a locked thread. She will have five posts in the night phase.

[nutella]

im sorry for everything this game is a mess lol

i guess we're back to hally redirecting amy

gl

[tutuu]

[mention]iaafr[/mention] I apologize for disparaging your Amy scumread since day 0. You were right on everything. I'm sorry

[mention]Alison[/mention] I apologize for yeeting you despite you being my townread. I assumed too much about the game mechanics. I underestimated how much weight my posts have. You were also correct on Hally being Mafia. I'm sorry

[mention]Benson[/mention] I'm sorry for my terrible plan. I was over confident in my ability to mech lock, I was unempathic to the effort you've put. You were right on Hally and possible Amy aswell, I forgot about your Amy read. You shouldn't have been yeeted. I'm sorry.

[mention]protocultures[/mention] I'm sorry for misyeeting you 36 minutes after day start daddy. You put your trust into me and I failed you. I didn't even consider 2 mafia world playing me like a fiddle and framing you. I will never ask you to trust me again. I apologize.

[mention]Amy[/mention] and [mention]Hally[/mention] I apologize for the amount of modkills to you, the Mafia team. It's like giving town free shots. And free flips. Dizzy was part of the PoE, it was a viable misyeet and it was taken away from you. Iaafr mafia was a viable world you were both playing towards, and it was also taken away from you. I'm sorry the game turned out that way, and if you lose due to things outside of your reach. If I do defeat you I won't gloat about it because you had to deal with some cheap shots thrown at you. I'm sorry this happened and I respect both of you as Mafia opponents.

With all that said:

I was feeling down as I was postcapped and I was watching what was unfolding. I felt really guilty for my terrible plan, and for how I let down everyone. I feel bad for how my friend iaafr snapped, and it's partly my fault that it happened.

BUT

Sometimes during the roughest hours is where Heroism takes triumph. Have you guys played Darkest Dungeon? When your characters have mental breakdowns, usually bad stuff happen to their mentality. However, rarely, they get inspired with Courage. With Bravery. With Valor.

This is the thing I am experiencing right now. I rolled the dice and I feel like a Hero. We are going to win this game, and I promise that.

[iaafr]

good luck town enjoyed memeing, really need to take a break from mafia in general because I literally can't sleep properly when playing sometimes sorry for the game integrity issues still think I should've just been mked d3

[Hally]

brilliant rabbit, thanks

so now there’s six of us

me, nanook, lc, tutuu, nut, amy

[tutuu]

Here is a pre-written post I wrote earlier:

[mention]nutella[/mention] D5 as I was burying Amy and Hally everything I said made sense to you. The moment I run out of posts and Amy starts talking, she is the one making sense. I feel like you're just inclined to agree with whatever you read last? Please, stop doing this, lol. Listen:

Imagine you are Hally. You are Hally and you know you're town.

Now, let's split this into two trees:

Tree A: 1 living Mafia remaining
Tree B: 2 living Mafia remaining

Tree A:
You are town!Hally. You know Long Con cannot be Mafia because you redirected Mafia!MR's shot onto him. You know iaafr can't be Mafia because you redirected him to WWH earlier (and Hally claims their ability fails when targeting both Mafia). From your pov, Amy is CONFIRMED (mechanically) Mafia. Not a read. It's not up to Hally to make a read. Amy is confirmed mechanically Mafia from their pov, in Tree A world (unless tutuu or Nanook is the solo Mafia). Does this make sense? Please, talk to me if it doesn't. I guess it's not 100% mechanically confirmed, but, town!Hally needs to decide: Is the final Mafia tutuu who outed a red check on her partner, Nanook who shot his partner, or Amy, who I have 0 reason to clear?

Tree B:
You are town!Hally. You believe there are 2 Mafia. Iaafr is no longer clear from your pov. Amy was never clear from your pov. Long Con can be Mafia, sure, but now we see that he's not. And it was unlikely in th first place iaafr/LC are w/w given how much iaafr pushed him.

to be clear i don’t think conversion exists in the sense of like a cult

i think that there is at most two 3P

i also think that any 3P started off as town on D0 but they were able to switch to 3P after D0. and i don’t think the 3P are known to each other if there is more than one but that’s just speculation. i imagine if there are multiple they have separate wincons

town deciding to become 3P is consistent with tony saying there’s only two factions at the start and also the presence of 3P itg

i kinda believe lc that he is actually 3P but either way he should 100% be the flip today

running out of posts rip

i think either he’s actually mafia with amy

or he can also scum side and win with mafia but just is omitting that part of his wincon

Nutella, please look at these posts. Hally admits it themself the most possible worlds from their pov is Amy = Solo Maf, or Amy + LC Maf, or Amy Maf + LC 3p. Hally voteparked LC and never did a single read on anything else

Nutella, please ISO Hally on the last day. They spoke of a PoE including Amy, Iaafr and someone else. They had no interest in solving, they were very transparent they just want to yeet the 3p.

Iaafr thought Hally might just be playing sub-optimally / wrongly townreading a Mafia. I do not belive Hally is a sub-optimal player. I do not believe Hally just forgets how to play Mafia. Please, compare my energy and the effort I put into solving last day compared to Hally's energy and the effort they put into solving last day.

------------

As for Amy. Please try to imagine stuff from town!Amy's perspective. This was before the WWH town flip. She was already shading me, she was already scumreading me over Hally. Stop skimming over her posts and being like "oh huh, Amy writes a lot, I guess she's town!". Her given reasons for townreading Hally are "wow, I know Hally's meta, they're really towny!" and that trumps be outing a red check on a Mafia and getting them killed.

This goes for [mention]NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME[/mention]. Yes, Amy's argument about why I, if I am Mafia, am living and the kills are plausible. But can you imagine a world where:

I was attacked N1 (doctored by Benson)
I was not attacked N2 because they have no active roleblocker (more on that later)
I was not attacked N3 and onwards due to the fear of Tim's security system invention
I was not attacked N3 and onwards due to my plan backfiring and saving both Hally and Amy for last
I was set up to get discredited N4 by Amy already theorizing how I'm Mafia
I was set up to get discredited on D4 when Hally came in clearing Amy (I redirected Amy last night to LC and WWH died, therefore Amy is clear) and both of them were genuinely confused that Amy's action went thru on me.

None of them was suspicious I was lying. None of them was suspicious I was also lying about my check being blocked.

Neither of them questioned that, also neither of them questioned when I started talking about how there are 2 living Mafia + LC being 3p.

Is it really hard to imagine?

As for the no active roleblocker for Mafia: I outed myself as cop with a red check on Day 2. Nobody blocked me N2 when I green peeked WWH. Nobody stopped me on N3 when I green peeked Nutella.

Mafia does not have an active roleblocker. Hally passively roleblocks people who visit them. They are ascetic. Please tell me that this makes sense?

----------

Hally has been adamant that we are living in a world where MR was Mafia. In such a world Hally needs to choose between scumreading Tutuu (outed guilty on Mafia), Nanook (dayvigged Mafia) and Amy (did nothing).

Hally is choosing to not push Amy.

Please tell me that it makes sense why Hally is obvious Mafia?

---------

I have repeatedly asked everyone to not yeet Long Con. I was the only one defending him, and partly Nutella while she was in the mood to listen to me. Please understand the agenda Mafia had behing yeeting Long Con and bringing us to LyLo.

Nutella, Master Radishes was town. There are 2 living Mafia, and it's Amy and Hally.

Benson, Alison, Proto, Dizzy, ALL 4 VILLAGERS, ALL 4 SCUMREAD HALLY. I can quote you the posts if you'd like.

Is there anything that is illogical in my post or doesn't make sense?

[tutuu]

[mention]Long Con[/mention] You are now effectively a King Maker.

There are 3 towns (Tutuu, Nanook, Nutella), 2 Mafia (Hally, Amy) and one 3p (Long Con)

Tonight one town is going to die. It will become 2v2v1.

Long Con needs to yeet one more Mafia to fulfill his wincon. It will be 2v1v1

On the following night 1 town will die. It will be 1v1v1

At this point Long Con wins with both Town and Mafia, and he decides who will win.

Long Con, I apologize on the behalf of the town for the way iaafr and Nanook jumped on your throat. I did everything in my power to stop them but I ran out of posts.

I've never been in a King Maker situation before. I don't want to manipulate you and sucking up to you and beg you to give us the win. Cuz that takes it away from Mafia and turns it more into ... popularity contest? Something like that.

Please know that I will be happy if you choose to give Town the win at F3, but I won't hold it against you if you choose to give it to the Mafia. The Mafia did do a nice comeback, Hally played excetionally well, and I think both Town and Mafia are more or less equally worthy of being given the win.

[mention]NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME[/mention] and [mention]nutella[/mention]

For reasons stated above, it's time to please stop antagonizing Long Con. Especially you Nanook. He is 3p, he isn't Mafia, if you have doubts that the Mafia team isn't Hally + AMY PLEASE TALK TO ME.

PLEASE TALK TO ME

My emotions are in full control atm, and I'm capable of communicating logically. I can explain why Amy and Hally are the Mafia if you still have doubts.

Please be receptive towards my attempt to win the game for us, and please be receptive to my arguments!

[tutuu]

[mention]Long Con[/mention] I just talked about how I don't wanna manipulate you and suck up to you but ...

4 people tried to kill you. 2 town (iaafr and nanook) and 2 mafia (amy and hally)

Please remember who was the ONLY ONE who tried to save you :P

Please remember who was the ONLY ONE who didn't antagonize you, and didn't mistrust you, and was cool with you

If I hadn't postcapped myself I would be spamming at the other 3 townies to be unvoting you. I was sad that they didn't wanna give you the win, it was kind of a jerk move. Again, I'm sorry that they were like that.

Your Scooby Doo gang is in a rough spot. It's up to you to save us. Please help us out, Scooby!