Retrocausality Mafia - ENDGAME: A Reprieve in the Desert

[Kylemii]

[mention]Spacedaisy[/mention] what did you do on night 3?

[Kylemii]

[mention]sprityo[/mention] who is your proposed final 2 mafia?

[Kylemii]

[mention]ColinIsCool[/mention] same question

[ColinIsCool]

The points you raised against him I felt were salient and quin did too. But for them to be valid Lapluie must be a civ and he was using her as an easy lynch to buy a day because there is no reason to bus her the way he did. Possible that he just went after the easiest civ lynch that was left, but I don't think she was a civilian based on her interactions with sig and based on POE. There is too much evidence that Epi is town. The suggestion that he bussed his entire team in a game that there's no value in doing that just doesn't stand to reason. Epignosis as scum here would have done what sprityo has tried to do (and tbh what you have tried to do as well) except he would have been far more effective at it. Yes he tinfoiled golden a bit but that is on his civ meta to do so and he never actually got anywhere with it. He got heated with another prominent civ player ... that is par for the course for Epi.

Epignosis might be playing 4D chess in the hopes that someone would make this case. Is it possible? Ehhhh he is a good player yes but it would be just insane to think that he did that.

If you want evidence look at his treatment of sig straight out of the gate, as well as Lunalee and Lapluie. Make a case that they are town because I sure as fuck can't. Now that I am so sure on sprityo you can add his treatment of sprityo to that pile.

You really think lapluie was scum? I have trouble saying confidently myself either way but you feel confident she was?

To be honest no, but it sounds more and more like you know who the scum actually are with posts like this.

I’m just trying to figure out who the scum actually are.

[ColinIsCool]

As far as bussing goes I voted also for all those people so I’m not sure why you think Epi wouldn’t do that while I would. If sprit isn’t the last one it HAS to be him.

You also pushed back against their lynches. It's incomparable. Epi drove the bus off a cliff and then set fire to the wreckage.

Can you show me where I “pushed back”? Because I don’t agree with that assessment at all. I feel like the TH business aside I’m pretty much with the rest of town and I’m really confused by this

[ColinIsCool]

@ColinIsCool same question

I’m looking at Sprit and Epi, if there are 2.

[Spacedaisy]

Ok look. Kyle definitely targeted me last night. And Epi definitely visited Juliet’s last night but she didn’t die, which leads me to believe he is a doctor as he says. I don’t see another reason to visit her.

This leaves me with Colin and Sprityo.

how do you know epi's target?

I tracked Epi last night.

[Spacedaisy]

@Spacedaisy what did you do on night 3?

I gave Mac a desperado gun.

[Spacedaisy]

Lot of silence at that comment, lol. I see you hanging out Sprityo.

[Kylemii]

idk what that means, did you give mac another desperado gun night 4? how did you get a watch? how did you know my target, despite my really clever joke prank where I pretended to target myself?

[Kylemii]

did your action of giving Mac a desperado gun unhappen nigbr 3 and just rehappen once again on night 4??? what was the intention

[Spacedaisy]

I don’t know how I got the watch frankly. Someone gave it to me apparently. But I used it on Epi.

You gave Mac another desperado gun but since he is not a viable target the desperado gun got redirected, I assume at random.

[Spacedaisy]

That was exactly the intention. I wanted it back in play.

[Kylemii]

oh cool? or maybe bad? what is a desperado gun

[Spacedaisy]

Ideally I wanted to give it to Mac again. But this worked out just fine.

It’s a gun that when fired at a civ will kill the person holding it instead.

[Kylemii]

oh cool

[Spacedaisy]

So thank you for making that happen.

[ColinIsCool]

Wait so is the desperado what got INH?

[Kylemii]

ok so here's where im at:

[Spacedaisy]

Now, I need to know the person we want to kill with it, beating in mind that if a civ dies on accident we lose. We have to be VERY sure of the target. Input Juliet’s, Mac? Do you think I could be mistaken in my conclusion regarding the might actions?

[Kylemii]

scotty died, he wasn't a mafia stunt kill or we would have been at mylo yesterday and also that would be a fucking crazy move, indicating probably civ. confirms golden/juliets since those two player slots have been paired for a while.

spacedaisy is a toolmaker of some kind and epignosis is a doctor kind of but not really, but also yes? neither of those roles are particularly mafia-like if real, spacedaisy's role is probably not fake since it's been talked about existing prior to revelation. epignosis could be fake, maybe epi targeted juliets with a negative thing that wasn't a kill or a protect? I guess that's the main danger with him.

that leaves sprityo and Colin who I don't remember shit about other than Colin grilled me a bunch about turnip head and has a role that gives him an extra vote if he predicts night poll results and what did sprityo claim?

[MacDougall]

Spoiler: show

Okay I think I have seen enough to want sprityo's head on a pike.

1. The Claim

His role claim is weird and the choices are weirder. It doesn't seem like a civ role and the application of it doesn't seem civvie in the slightest.

In my defense, I didn’t submit my first night action. Would’ve loved to have saved it for later in fact. And my night 2 track of daisy was more so on a whim if anything

2. The Defense

He was the main person trying to object to the lapluie lynch and only ended up voting for her when there was no reason not to as I demonstrated in the post above.

i did not object to the lynch in the slightest

Here's another post that Epignosis also called bullshit on.

Colonialbob is available to replace Lapluie, albeit at low effort since he won't be around at certain times.

I am uncertain whether to do this or just let things run their course.

The fact that you're asking confirms lapluie is bad. Let us lynch her.

Flawed logic at its finest

He is very aware of what he is doing. So much so he unprovokedly says this.

Not to say it looks like I’m defending lapluie. I’m just saying how you’re acting is....odd

i was fully prepared to go into the lap lynch that day. Same if it had been Kyle or Epi. How Epi went about so eager to “confirm” lapluie was bad to show to everyone else “hey guys I’m lynching the baddy, it’s a for sure deal!” That did not sit right with me.

He also did the exact same thing on the Lunalee lynch.

Fine. You all win, I'll do what you want. Against my own feelings on this. [VOTE: lunalee] aubergine

You have someone who has claimed openly to not be civ aligned, and you want to believe them and possibly allow them the space to do what they want. We'll see how this goes. I hope you all are right.

You literally quoted @Spacedaisy...... nice try mac

3. The Indie Hunter

to follow up what i just posted, to toss in my two cents.

independents are basically guaranteed in this game, otherwise it wouldnt be fun. on top of that, it makes the Scientist role more reasonable if quin is as he says (or from what i've gathered mac had said just then) i havent gone back to see what quin ACTUALLY "claimed"

He very quickly started talking about independents, a scumtell. Here's some more.

er.....

that's not a bad point actually

as great as the case is, i'd be fine with either or. TH is claiming 3P and that secures us one less infraction to worry about as town

i was caught up in the granduer of golden's case


that also reminds me, are we just ignoring INH now orrr?

so that's it then? assume TH is working in the interest of town?

look dont let me say i told you so when he soup kills like three people at once

you’re going to get on me about wanting to lynch Indies, when I know for a FACT, daisy and Colin were in the exact same positions? I had legitimate concerns over TH at the time. And literally no one addressed INH, he just died during the night somehow and that was that, no more INH. You want to shame me for being concerned about crazy indie roles in a crazy closed setup?

4. The Salad

coming back midway or so through day 2.

Epi is town, he's indecisive and changes is suspicions on a whim, i observed a good deal of it in Fire Emblem. He is right most of the time though in his suspicions, but he's best at defending himself.
Golden leans town for me with his interactions of sig, quin, mac, and INH. But it's more so just banter. than throwing down some "you're bad, fuck you"
i dont trust Quin (right now) in the slightest. A stump isnt activated by default from what ive seen. he's either lying out his ass or some convoluted shit is happening. on top of the "random PM" deal im still reading through. I hope it gets resolved
I keep seeing Colin pop in now and again. contributing somewhat.
Same with luna except it's nothing relevant, warrants an ISO once im done reading day2
if INH is not town, then when are we going to lynch him?
Mac is town but i dont know why yet.

He makes a decisive read on Epi in an attempt to buddy/disarm him. This entire post is a mixture of reads and observations. The comments on Colin and Luna are particularly pingy in that they seem to serve no benefit other than to demonstrate that he is reading the game. The comment on me, I have no worldly idea what that's about.

That’s excatly what it was mac, it was me reading to catch up. To say I made a “decisive” read is false, and to buddy someone is something I loathe. If people want to trust me that’s fine, but I don’t aim for it.

i also group turniphead with luna in that they havent done anything worthy to not be lynched as far as ive read

This is a similar comment but has the extended weirdness of the phrasing. Just something off about the phrase "worthy to not be lynched". In both aforementioned posts he is fairly encouraging of the idea of lynching the two independents, which again, is a scum type behavior.

and again, to single me out as such makes this look worse than it is. I’m positive Scotty said something akin to what you quoted as well. I don’t live with double standards, mac

5. The Low Value Content

Spoiler: show

Addendum: if he didn’t vanish, then we know he’s lying.

I see what you mean.

Got it.

*hails waitress*

Check please!

yesssss exactly.

if we lynch him early then we don't know what alignment he died with but if we let him achieve his stated wincon we'll know if he was lying.

if his wincon claim is a definite lie then we can comfortably lynch him based on that evidence, but if we lynch him before it can come to fruition then turnip head remains a mystery until the end.

This rationale makes sense and at the same time makes me uneasy. very uneasy. There's no definite that the future will be as predicted

Another pointless "I have feelings towards this game" post.

again see above about me having concerns for the town and daisy having the same concerns. I’m really starting to dislike all these single out posts mac

6. The Struggle to Find Other Viable Candidates Aside from His Teammates

Mac and I are braintwinning right now, for real

this rubs me the wrong way

my gut has the rumblies

Sus on Colin with no explanation as to why. Pushing one of the other guys starting to have the POE crunch come down on them into the limelight subtly. Then he started to half jokingly point fingers at Spacedaisy.

ever heard of a gut read? This was that. Like you say I was buddying Epi or whatever when I first got in, but this looks 10x more likely a buddy

I know golden said he trusted daisy as his core town, I don’t think he said why outside of his own beliefs. Did you feel the same Scotty?

Good news Scotty, if you die, we’ll know that daisy is the one who killed you

Note, he has already tracked Spacedaisy targeting Scotty and we see Scotty is still alive. He has ZERO reason to doubt or suspect her.

false, the coincidence that Scotty got an item on the sameness night I tracked daisy confirms she gave it to him. Daisy has yet to claim at all so for all I know, it could be a useless item, or it could have either good or bad effects. You forgot to mention how she’s encouraged Scotty to eat the cookie in that same day. So I mean i would hope it’s a good item.


7. The Contradiction

This could be the most telling thing. In these consecutive posts he goes from defending the position of trusting and letting TH do what TH do.

I have a question for people who are pro-Turnip
Head: why?

why not

indi doesnt have to care who wins, as long as their wincon is met

To criticising someone for trusting TH.

I will campaign to not see TH lynched today if need be. But I didn't really realise there was any threat of that, because I can't imagine any good reason to lynch him. All the facts suggest he is not mafia, to me. I have no interest in lynching an indy when the player numbers are so small and the indy is claiming he'll vanish anyway. This one I definitely would see as a waste of a lynch.

Why would you not let it play out and see if he is being honest? Like - if we lynch TH and prevent him winning by one day and go on to lose because we've wasted a lynch on this, I will riot.

There is absolutely nothing about TH's behaviour in the entire game that suggests any kind of agenda.

we just trust indy's now based on word alone?

that’s one hell of a jump you got there, I’ll need to check on where exactly I said this, but I’m almost positive it was before I knew HOW TH needed his wincon. That’s the important part here. And to say changes of opinion haven’t happened in an instant elsewhere in the game mac is hypocritical

In Closing

This feels ... insanely correct. Please do yourselves a favour and read that and tell me how you can justify voting for anybody else tomorrow?

In all, I see a lot of framing to fit the picture here. You really want me to be bad off circumstantial evidence, but to address me singularily and say “this is bad, you’re the only bad one” is crap. You’re like a politician

On the contrary, you were the last person of the 4 in the POE I analysed. I had a civ read on you. I have no agenda here sprityo

if there wasn’t no agenda, why didn’t I get the special big post and negative context about the whole thing?

Because after I did ISO read throughs of everybody you stood out as the most obvious scum of them all.

@MacDougall can you see my concern with your big post? To me, it’s like you’ve been gunning for me since I’ve replaced in.

Does me gunning for you inherently make you good does it? No I really can't see your concern. You are just trying to defend yourself with what little ground you have to stand on, which is fine.

As far as bussing goes I voted also for all those people so I’m not sure why you think Epi wouldn’t do that while I would. If sprit isn’t the last one it HAS to be him.

You also pushed back against their lynches. It's incomparable. Epi drove the bus off a cliff and then set fire to the wreckage.

Can you show me where I “pushed back”? Because I don’t agree with that assessment at all. I feel like the TH business aside I’m pretty much with the rest of town and I’m really confused by this

I'm too tired to do this right now. I had a quick look and saw nothing so I might be taking for granted that Golden was actually not just tunneling you.

[MacDougall]

Ok look. Kyle definitely targeted me last night. And Epi definitely visited Juliet’s last night but she didn’t die, which leads me to believe he is a doctor as he says. I don’t see another reason to visit her.

This leaves me with Colin and Sprityo.

When are you going to reveal that you are a civ to me?

[Kylemii]

[mention]MacDougall[/mention] are you still in contact with the ghosts of christmas past?

[MacDougall]

@Spacedaisy what did you do on night 3?

I gave Mac a desperado gun.

OHHHH I would have loved that.

[MacDougall]

@MacDougall are you still in contact with the ghosts of christmas past?

No, I have access to the quicktopic thing that I was in but when I came back speedchuck made a new one and locked the one I can see.

[Kylemii]

(that was a reference to the Muppet Christmas Carol) (;

[MacDougall]

That was exactly the intention. I wanted it back in play.

This seems dumb given it could have just ended up in scum hands

[MacDougall]

Ideally I wanted to give it to Mac again. But this worked out just fine.

It’s a gun that when fired at a civ will kill the person holding it instead.

Oh neat

[MacDougall]

Now, I need to know the person we want to kill with it, beating in mind that if a civ dies on accident we lose. We have to be VERY sure of the target. Input Juliet’s, Mac? Do you think I could be mistaken in my conclusion regarding the might actions?

There is little chance sprityo is town at this point. His partner is most likely Colin, least likely Epignosis, possibly Kyle... given what you say about their night actions it's gotta be Col.

So yeah you good.

[sprityo]

@sprityo who is your proposed final 2 mafia?

It’s only logical that it be Epi and Kyle. Unless daisy or Colin is pulling one over on me

[MacDougall]

scotty died, he wasn't a mafia stunt kill or we would have been at mylo yesterday and also that would be a fucking crazy move, indicating probably civ. confirms golden/juliets since those two player slots have been paired for a while.

spacedaisy is a toolmaker of some kind and epignosis is a doctor kind of but not really, but also yes? neither of those roles are particularly mafia-like if real, spacedaisy's role is probably not fake since it's been talked about existing prior to revelation. epignosis could be fake, maybe epi targeted juliets with a negative thing that wasn't a kill or a protect? I guess that's the main danger with him.

that leaves sprityo and Colin who I don't remember shit about other than Colin grilled me a bunch about turnip head and has a role that gives him an extra vote if he predicts night poll results and what did sprityo claim?

You promised me you'd read my sprityo case.

Dude's bad. There's no chance he's good at this juncture. I'd say Colin is aware of that at this point and has chosen the path of distancing.

[MacDougall]

@sprityo who is your proposed final 2 mafia?

It’s only logical that it be Epi and Kyle. Unless daisy or Colin is pulling one over on me

The only way that it is Epignosis and Kyle is if Lapluie and Lunalee were not. Given the way you behaved towards both those lynches you might as well just mafia claim and try to wifom us into mislynching tomorrow though. That's what I'd do.

[MacDougall]

Correctly lynching today = 5 left
Final scum kills again = 4 left
Lynch again = 3 left
Kill = 2 left games over

Okay gotta correctly lynch twice in a row sadly.

[sprityo]

this is blasphemy

[MacDougall]

Sprityo is bad, he has to be.
colin or epi is the teammate. Either.

Spacedaisy tracked Epi and saw him target juliets.

That vibes with a doctor enough to just take the tinfoil hat off imo.

Colin has failed to correctly predict a single election. I think he's just been lying about his role. I think the role claims are going to end up being the downfall of sprityo and colin here.

There are many combinations of wifom and tinfoil that could drive us crazy but ultimately we just have to be rational now and hope that it wins out.

[sprityo]

They weren’t really one shot. I just didn’t want suspicion drawn to me. This is my only defense because I’m sure you guys won’t listen to reason

[mention]Scotty[/mention] the cookie daisy gave you is a roll block. She wanted you to eat it the other day remember?

[Spacedaisy]

They weren’t really one shot. I just didn’t want suspicion drawn to me. This is my only defense because I’m sure you guys won’t listen to reason

@Scotty the cookie daisy gave you is a roll block. She wanted you to eat it the other day remember?

Lie. It was a double vote.

[Spacedaisy]

Also Scotty is vanished.

[Spacedaisy]

Oh shit, no it was. I got it mixed up with another item. Well fuck.

[Spacedaisy]

Hope I didn’t accidentally get some one killed.

[Spacedaisy]

Hope I didn’t accidentally get some one killed.

[Kylemii]

You promised me you'd read my sprityo case.

Dude's bad. There's no chance he's good at this juncture. I'd say Colin is aware of that at this point and has chosen the path of distancing.

I read it and I thought it seemed pretty good, but I wasn't in a place where I could respond to it in detail or anything, and responding to a 10 paragraph essay worth "nice work, I like it" seemed a little disrespectful.

what was sprityo's role claim?

[Kylemii]

Oh shit, no it was. I got it mixed up with another item. Well fuck.

what?

[Spacedaisy]

Just when I started to feel good about how I was playing. Fucking hell thats frustrating. I’m so sorry Scotty. Hopefully we can still pull this out and I won’t feel so bad.

Mac I’m going to use this thing. Is Sprityo the absolute best choice? Or Colin?

[Kylemii]

what happened to scotty :0

[sprityo]

Just shoot me.

You won’t do it

[Spacedaisy]

The PP vanished Scotty.

[Spacedaisy]

Just shoot me.

You won’t do it

I won't do it because you think I'm too scared, or you think I won't do it because you clustering.

I won't use it on someone unless I am fairly confident in their alignment. Because I don't particularly want to end up dead.

But that is hardly a way to convince me of this sprityo. I'm town, it would be better if you convinced me you are town too. I can see a mafia utility in your role, and I can see how Colin's claims seem weak. I'm leaning you too, but I'm not ruling out Kyle or Epi 100%.

[Spacedaisy]

Should have been blustering.

The other option is you mean I will fire but not end up shooting you/ but this seems like a REAAALllly bad response if you are civ. if you are civ you would not want to dare me to do it because it would lose us the game. you would want to convince me not to use it on you but to use it on someone YOU believed was bad. I'm not feeling good about you sprityo.