U-Pick Mafia Vol 1 - Game Over

[sig]

It does seem like he wouldn't want it known if he were mafia. Kyle, who do you think the last ones are?

i don't believe you sig or ddl are Al Pieda, based on your roles in LC's lynch. that leaves turnip head, motel room, and cbob. I'd say TH/Motel seems more likely than CBob/Motel.

I hate the idea of lynching another inactive but notel might be the way to go.


I'd agree bob would probably not reveal his power if he was mafia.

That leaves kyle th and motel

Th I'd rather not lynch and I've been civ reading kyle, plus inh being thw curse role removes the theory that Kyle/bob had it.

Id say the best bet is motel if we have a strong second suspect maybe tie it, but that would be devastating if both are civ.

[sig]

I don't see 2 mafia atm, im hoping pieda had one fewer player due to their ability to recruir/lock up players

[sig]

Lc going after zeph does give ne a bit of pause still, so if i had to add another mafia it would be bob followed by kyle


Oh and i didnt use my watcher shot last night which is great for use since the killer died and i didn't waste it.

[juliets]

I don't see 2 mafia atm, im hoping pieda had one fewer player due to their ability to recruir/lock up players

Yeah you know, thats true - they could recruit so it would make sense they'd have one fewer. If that's the case I think it's motel.

[sig]

I don't see 2 mafia atm, im hoping pieda had one fewer player due to their ability to recruir/lock up players

Yeah you know, thats true - they could recruit so it would make sense they'd have one fewer. If that's the case I think it's motel.

Yeah, plus 10 mafia even on two teams seems like alot when you add in the 4 third party, one of whom can double kill (jack) one who could lock people up and maybe kill them, and one who got gifts which could mean anything.

So a game of 30 that would mean only 16 civs, assuming Absolute Units started as civs? So I think one more might be more rational (lol using that word in this game is odd)

I did a quick scenario for day 7. Excluding Epi since he's a stump we've got 7 players assuming to be safe 2 mafia members are alive that means we have
1 Indy (hopefully)
2 Mafia
4 Civs

A.
If we mislynch and Mafia kill it'll be
1 indy
2 mafia
2 civs

B.
If we lynch mafia and night kill
1 indy
1 mafia
3 civs


The final options are to force a tie again

C.
lynching two players one being mafia one being civ + NK
1 indy
1 mafia
2 civs

D.
Lynching two both being civ and a night kill
1 indy
2 mafia
1 civ

E.
We hit the double slammer Whammy? idk baseball terms and get both mafia the surviving civs are revered as Gods among Gods and showered with glory beyond are wildest dreams.
1 indy
no mafia
4 civs

So
A. We'll be entering into Day 8 at lylo which would be bad the good news would be our POE would be tiny.
B. By far this would be the best option, if we only have one mafia member we win, if we do have two it should be fairly easy to tell who the last one is through voting, interaction, and POE
C. Risky for sure, but as long as we hit one mafia member we'll be good and POE will be easy, assuming DDL stays pro civ we should be fine.
D. We loose game over, I guess in theory if Bob is civ and alive, targets DDL and they vote as a unit the game might be extended maybe? Either way this is a big nono
E.

[sig]

This is assuming Juliet's isn't recruited, nobody but mafia will kill, and we have no protections. Obviously we can't say that for sure, but we can't depend on outside things at this point.

IF we decide to double lynch one should be motel for sure, since he won't be contributing to the civ vote if he stays alive he's basically dead weight and helping the mafia even if he is a civ.

The other would be between Kyle/Bob imo I'd rather aim for Bob, but I'm still very unsure here so I think I'd rather not risk lynching a civ let our POE get a bit smaller and decide on day 8. Even if Motel room flips civ as long as we've only got one kill we'll be fine.

Also if we decide on a double vote don't tie it until last second since Motel could pop in and try to mess it up especially if he's mafia and has a teammate alive. Though after looking over the math i'd advocate lynching just one player.

Also with so few players left and with my shot I've got a pretty good chance of catching them in the act, if we still have a doc, and we should no true doctor was lynched/killed, I'd suggest they make me a priority.

[sig]

I'm also going to assume teams don't both kill every night I know it happens on some sites, but I believe it would be unlikely here with the number of other killing roles/potential and size of the game.

[juliets]

sig, in D. above do you mean if bob is mafia and alive and targets DDL and they vote as a unit?

[Turnip Head]

I don't think I want to do a double lynch... I don't have enough suspects and numbers should be good so we can take our time.

[sig]

sig, in D. above do you mean if bob is mafia and alive and targets DDL and they vote as a unit?

No if he would be the last remaining civ gave DDL an extra vote and then they vote against a mafia member, but I don't think it would matter since it would still mean the mafia could just nightkill bob.

So D would result in a civ loss.

[mention]Turnip Head[/mention] Why are you voting for me?

[colonialbob]

If I was mafia I would not have played yesterday like that at all

[colonialbob]

Well if I was al-Pieda anyway

[colonialbob]

A double vote is a terrible idea and I kind of think people advocating for it are mafia

[Golden]

I guess I'm not getting that rezz

[Quin]

I guess I'm not getting that rezz

not with that attitude you're not

[sig]

A double vote is a terrible idea and I kind of think people advocating for it are mafia

Is anyone advocating it though? I presented it as an option, but both TH and Juliet said it was bad and I agree.

[Kylemii]

motel room also hasn't shown up since night 5

[Kylemii]

most of sigs' scenarios get screwed up if motel is still alive on day 8, good or bad

[Turnip Head]

siggypoo you're just giving me the williez right now. You turned your read on me upside down with a strange certainty, you're walking back the double lynch option now, you just look shady to me bub

[colonialbob]

A double vote is a terrible idea and I kind of think people advocating for it are mafia

Is anyone advocating it though? I presented it as an option, but both TH and Juliet said it was bad and I agree.

Idk I've been skimming. I'll have to go back and reread where you brought it up.

[sig]

most of sigs' scenarios get screwed up if motel is still alive on day 8, good or bad

Yeah i didn't consider that when I made the lists, I was mainly looking at numbers.

[sig]

siggypoo you're just giving me the williez right now. You turned your read on me upside down with a strange certainty, you're walking back the double lynch option now, you just look shady to me bub

I walked it back after looking into it more and I did a giant ISO of tons of people and it changed a few of my reads, but overall I'd say i've been consistent on most players. Juliets I'm still a mite worried about due to recruitment, but she's playing the same way she did before so I don't think so.

You're looking a bit better after an ISO

Kyle has been a meh civ read for awhile

Bob never looked bad, but I'm not as certain he's a civ and I still believe LC lynch of Zeph could've been motivated by saving a teammate.

Motel room I have gone back and forth on, but at this point we need to get ride of him and I do think through POE it's likely he's mafia. Plus keep in mind a fair portion of my theories fell apart when INH flipped I suspected that role belonged to Pieda.

[sig]

I'm fine with an Eloh lynch. I'd also be fine with a Scotty or Sloonei or speedchuck lynch.

I HAVE NEVER MET A YOUNG PERSON WITH SO LITTLE RESPECT FOR THEIR ELDERS AS THIS GIRL!

Props to nutella 3/4

[colonialbob]

What's the reason for town-firming sig?

[Turnip Head]

What's the reason for town-firming sig?

Is this a thing?

[colonialbob]

What's the reason for town-firming sig?

Is this a thing?

[mention]juliets[/mention]?

Idk I've wanted to lynch you for forever and now sig is saying you're town. Are you teammates?

[Turnip Head]

No dude I think sig is sketchy af right now lol

[colonialbob]

No dude I think sig is sketchy af right now lol

That's just what his teammate would say

[Turnip Head]

No dude I think sig is sketchy af right now lol

That's just what his teammate would say

Why don't you say it too, and then we can both be Sig's teammates

[Epignosis]

Omar was on day 1879 of the much anticipated Sonemic build. Beta 46 has been taking forever and he was very frustrated. Cornering a small innocent creature he decided to take his frustrations out on it. He kicked and stomped on the poor thing until it stopped moving. Lord knows why he decided to do it in the middle of the town though. For repercussions there would surely be.

ColinIsCool has been killed.

He was

Spoiler: show

Fergus, Son of Shrek, Civilian. You are an adorable baby ogre. If someone kills you they will be brutally murdered for justice.

Sloonei has been hanged by the townsfolk for an unspeakable crime.

He was

Spoiler: show

Sharifi, Al-Pieda. Each night you can target an RYMer and share a BTSC with them.

It is now day 7, and on we go.

Last time I buy the burnout story.

I'm burned out.

[Epignosis]

wait does shrek get a baby in one of the movies? is that a thing that happens

Three babies yes.

Spoiler tags, please.

[Golden]

Surely that movie is playing in the team bus.

[Epignosis]

FIRST BASEMAN SUSPENDED INDEFINITELY FOR PEDS

Monday, June 4, 2018

Recently drafted top prospect Sloonei, expected to begin his rookie season with the Colorado Rockies, has been suspended indefinitely for using performance-enhancing drugs. While the substances reportedly gave him an edge over his competition, the side-effects withered him into a geriatric, and his penis shriveled until it fell off.

We reached out to Colorado Rockies center fielder Charlie Blackmon, but he has yet to comment on this revelation.

[Epignosis]

The media! Come on, guys, I was celebrating Easter. YES in June. Leave me alone. It was an awkward gathering.

[Epignosis]

A double vote is a terrible idea and I kind of think people advocating for it are mafia

Who are those people?

[Kylemii]

No dude I think sig is sketchy af right now lol

please elaborate?

[colonialbob]

So would it be worth it to aim for a tie if we have two suspects?

Motel room has nothing to lynch on, but beyond gut there's no reason to civ read him either.

So he's not advocating for it but he's definitely floating it as a possibility. Sus.

Sig, please explain why you're certain TH is town, because I haven't seen it.

[juliets]

What's the reason for town-firming sig?

Is this a thing?

@juliets?

Idk I've wanted to lynch you for forever and now sig is saying you're town. Are you teammates?

You've wanted to lynch me? I don't think you've mentioned that until now. No, sig and I are not teammates. Remember though we were together with only each other to talk to for a time and developed a trust relationship based on our mutual thoughts about people including people who have been proven civ, al pieda. On a totally different subject I will be at work today until early to mid afternoon.

[juliets]

EBWOP: Above should have said "...who have been proven civ, al pieda, and ISIS."

[juliets]

One more thing, I think it would be a big mistake to lynch two people today. It is possible there is only one baddie left since as sig pointed out, al pieda had the opportunity to gain another member through the Chatzy of the Lost Souls.

[Turnip Head]

No dude I think sig is sketchy af right now lol

please elaborate?

I already kinda elaborated so here's a picture of sig, hope this helps

[Turnip Head]

^^ I mean, that's him guys. It's sig, smoking a sig, looking like a closeted maniac. He even has his watch on so he knows when it's time to slaughter civs.

[Turnip Head]

What's the reason for town-firming sig?

Is this a thing?

@juliets?

Idk I've wanted to lynch you for forever and now sig is saying you're town. Are you teammates?

You've wanted to lynch me? I don't think you've mentioned that until now. No, sig and I are not teammates. Remember though we were together with only each other to talk to for a time and developed a trust relationship based on our mutual thoughts about people including people who have been proven civ, al pieda. On a totally different subject I will be at work today until early to mid afternoon.

[mention]juliets[/mention] I think only half of cbob's post here was directed at you. I think the teammate thing is about me ( ) and, separately, Bob was asking if you had a reason to townfirm sig.

[colonialbob]

What's the reason for town-firming sig?

Is this a thing?

Juliets?

Idk I've wanted to lynch you for forever and now sig is saying you're town. Are you teammates?

You've wanted to lynch me? I don't think you've mentioned that until now. No, sig and I are not teammates. Remember though we were together with only each other to talk to for a time and developed a trust relationship based on our mutual thoughts about people including people who have been proven civ, al pieda. On a totally different subject I will be at work today until early to mid afternoon.

Sorry i was only directing the town sig read towards you, the rest of that post was at TH

[Dragon D. Luffy]

I have no idea whats going on.

[sig]

So would it be worth it to aim for a tie if we have two suspects?

Motel room has nothing to lynch on, but beyond gut there's no reason to civ read him either.

So he's not advocating for it but he's definitely floating it as a possibility. Sus.

Sig, please explain why you're certain TH is town, because I haven't seen it.

I'm floating it yeah, I also floated all the other potential things we could do as town today.

It should be noted I'd be against a duel lynch if one was me.

Maybe I lied about my role being a JOAT and I'm really a cop.

or maybe I did what i said I did, which was do another ISO of him and not see anything bad. He'd still near the bottom of my list, but as it stands Motel looks worse and we've already seen a fair amount of inactive mafia members, wouldn't be shocked if we had one more. Plus as Kyle pointed out my entire analysis gets fucked up if we have a civ who doesn't vote.

Mafia won't kill him and if we mislynch then have a night kill mafia will be able to tie the game and win, assuming we leave Motel alive. The fact I think he's mafia is just an added bonus at this point.

I'd also say the reason I town firmed myself is based off of four main things.
1. Locked up by LC
2. Wasn't able to be recruited when I got free
3. My uncountered claim, which is backed by evidence.
4. The fact I was a major reason LC was lynched. If DDL hadn't have passed my cop check into the thread I'm very doubtful Juliets would've been able to get him lynched.

[sig]

^^ I mean, that's him guys. It's sig, smoking a sig, looking like a closeted maniac. He even has his watch on so he knows when it's time to slaughter civs.

And I'm not a closeted maniac I'm super open about my manically tendencies thankyouverymuch

[sig]

What's the reason for town-firming sig?

Is this a thing?

@juliets?

Idk I've wanted to lynch you for forever and now sig is saying you're town. Are you teammates?

You've wanted to lynch me? I don't think you've mentioned that until now. No, sig and I are not teammates. Remember though we were together with only each other to talk to for a time and developed a trust relationship based on our mutual thoughts about people including people who have been proven civ, al pieda. On a totally different subject I will be at work today until early to mid afternoon.

On this note, the three of us we went back and forth on TH, I thought he was the vanisher and I still find him saying that juliet was safe to be odd, however that alone isn't enough to lynch someone. In fact I had him pegged as a third party vanisher LC lynch made me adapt and think he was a potential teammate.

However, the posts that Sloonie and LC directed at him makes me thinks that this isn't the case.

[sig]

I have no idea whats going on.

Vote motel room.

[Turnip Head]

Ok sig im backing off for now.