[DAY 9] Turf Wars: Prison Edition

#51

Prisoner 277058 wrote:@Hosts - If the other prisoners fail to submit an answer does that count as a loss of 0 coins?

If the other prisoners fail to submit an answer, it will be an automatic loss of coins (however much you bet).

Celeste · #52

Good luck all ye gamblers. I have been quietly watching from the sidelines, and I support your decisions thus far.

Saito · #53

MovingPictures07 wrote:
Prisoner 277058 wrote:@Hosts - If the other prisoners fail to submit an answer does that count as a loss of 0 coins?
If the other prisoners fail to submit an answer, it will be an automatic loss of coins (however much you bet).

Well shit

Gunther · #54

It is now noon, Central Time. How did we do?

#55

Group 1 answered: Prisoner 813142
Group 2 bet $100 on: Prisoner 813142

You won $200!
The current pot total is $650

Question 3: Which of all the current prisoners would you most like to shank right now?

You have until 11:00 PM central time to bet on what you believe Group 1 will answer.

Saito · #56

Hear me out on this. We should wager zero. There are more than one inactive prisoners and even with 15's mess up I dont feel comfortable that we can correctly guess this

Gunther · #57

Prisoner 277058 wrote:Hear me out on this. We should wager zero. There are more than one inactive prisoners and even with 15's mess up I dont feel comfortable that we can correctly guess this

This is good to consider. I listed the "post counts" during yesterday's challenge but it was not unanimous on who to shank if things went haywire. I advocated for 153930's shanking if his or her post in English, under the impression that that alone would cost us the challenge. It seems I was wrong about that but the incident could be fresher in other prisoners' minds because of my strong stance at the time. We also do not know if any of the Group 1 prisoners took notes on the information that I posted.

I would agree that caution is necessary given the uncertainty of the information Group 1 retained.

11:00 p.m. Central is quite a long time from now, which means we may only get two or three more questions after this one. I suspect the questions might get harder from here on out. Let's mull this one over for a few hours and get some group input. We may want to consider a lower bet (10 or 25) since we "overachieved" on question number two.

HOSTS: Can you tell us how many more questions are scheduled after this one?

Saito · #58

See the unfortunate thing is that while we dont have to bet they do have to answer, so..

I would lean towards them lynching 15, even though inactivity cost us the challenge, not the English. I might endorse a 25 or 10 bet.

Celeste · #59

Something to consider mathematically, and would also depend on how many questions are left.

Betting 25 doesn't help us, or 10 for that matter. If we lose, we move to 2 bets away from succeeding. If we win, we are still 1 bet away from winning. Betting 100 would be better in terms of reaching our goal.

Betting 50 wouldn't be bad either, it still puts us in the same boat as betting 10 or 25, but if we win, we can safely bet 50 again next round and remain 1 bet away if we lose, and pass our challenge if we win.

Betting 0 wouldn't be bad either, especially if there is little certainty of the answer to the bet.

So I motion that we bet either 0, 50, or 100 for this bet.

Gunther · #60

Thank you for the input, 483. I'd like to hear from a few more people before I make my mind up and add my two cents. We've got time.

#61

Prisoner 813142 wrote: HOSTS: Can you tell us how many more questions are scheduled after this one?

No, but I can tell you that every question is scheduled to come between 7 and 11 hours after the previous question.

Saito · #62

Maybe a 50 coin bet on Prisoner 15?

Celeste · #63

I have no idea who we should shank, or who I want to shank. I haven't really been paying attention until 2 days ago.

Gunther · #64

Prisoner 219747 has not posted at all since he or she joined us in prison on Day 6. The Day 6 and Day 7 challenge did not require full participation from the prison populace, so we simply looked down on 219 for not even trying. The Day 8 challenge required everyone's participation. Because 219747 was AWOL again, we lost the challenge.

Prisoner 331347 also did not post during the Day 8 challenge, so they also bear responsibility for our loss. 331347 also failed to post during Day 7 but did contribute three posts to Day 6.

Prisoner 153930 is noteworthy because he or she joined us on Day 6 and basically said we could shank them first when it came around to it because they essentially want out of the game. 153 posted once on Day 6, twice on Day 7, but did fulfill the posting quota on Day 8, albeit with the one English posting "gaffe."

Given that 153930 was gracious enough to fulfill the quota, it shows that he or she is at least willing to do the bare minimum to help the rest of us. As for 219 and 331, it seems they do not care, so it may be best to "shank" those who won't even bother to show up before eliminating those who at least show up begrudgingly.

Celeste · #65

My gut tells me they would pick someone in their own group.

Saito · #66

I feel like a question is coming up that we'll feel more comfortable betting on.

Bet 0 coins on Prisoner 15

Saito · #67

Prisoner 277058 wrote:I feel like a question is coming up that we'll feel more comfortable betting on.

Bet 0 coins on Prisoner 15 FINAL ANSWER

Oops./

Phoebe Buffay · #68

I just got in and want to say even though I would vote 219 because of my conversation with 813 yesterday (or maybe someone else was talking to him) I can see why the other group could vote 153. I absolutely agree it's too close to call and agree with the decision to vote $0. Very clever 483, great info 813. (that was a compliment not a sarcastic remark to you both)

Gunther · #69

We're past the deadline. How did you we do?

Ned Flanders · #70

#71

Group 1 answered 219747
Group 2 bet $0 on 153930

You lost this bet, but fortunately you didn't have any money on the line!
The current pot stands at $650

Question 4: which of the living players holds the Warden role? You have until 9:00 AM central to place a bet on what Group 1 will answer.

Here is the current player roster:
Black Rock
chaindeath
Dom (replaced Draconus who replaced Mongoose)
Elohcin (replaced Serge)
Epignosis
Nerolunar
Quin
Scotty
Sloonei
Soneji
SVS
Turnip Head

Gunther · #72

Shit. I haven't got a clue on this one. Looks like we'll need to wager big on the next one. Any one have any thoughts? We haven't been discussing the Warden's identity much.

Gunther · #73

Hosts: is it 9:00 eastern or central?

#74

Central. I will edit it into the post, apologies.

#75

A question was posed to me by PM that I think I should be clear about here. You have all now been present in the thread. You can speculate here about the who player behind The Warden might be. Even as you discuss this you are still prohibited from saying anything that might reveal YOUR (or any other Prisoner's) real identity or previous role.

Saito · #76

I think we may have gotten a big hint there guys. If the Warden is still alive (which it looks like from the wording of "current roster", and the warden hasn't been here for the last few challenges... could it be the Warden has been replaced?

Saito · #77

Probably won't be here for the end time so I'm putting in my guess now, but remember guys you can change it.

100 coins on Dom final answer

Saito · #78

Oh damn I just remembered it doesn't matter if we're right all we're trying to do is match their guess. lol. Shit.

I doubt they'd have the same thought process so... 0 coins on Dom final answer.

Saito · #79

I'm also sad we missed the layup of the 219 answer.

Gunther · #80

Prisoner 277058 wrote:I'm also sad we missed the layup of the 219 answer.

I wouldn't call our third question a lay-up. We may have over-thought the question but there were legitimate concerns as to what the other group would pick.

And honestly, this is a challenge that I don't think Group 1 can fault us for losing. We are literally guessing what their answers would be. There is no level of "intentionality" to this challenge. It's kind of like our Day 4 challenge- the degree of guesswork is rather high. We will just have to wait and see what the deadline is on the next question. If it's the final one, then we will have to bet for the win.

Gunther · #81

Don't want to be "picky" but it's now 9:19 am Central. Sooo....

Phoebe Buffay · #82

813 I was just about to post that I have no idea who the warden is. I'm going to do a quick iso of his posts to see if anyone pops into mind but I don't think he will do any good. If not I'll go with Dom but can we afford to bet 0 on this challenge and still win? What do you think?

Phoebe Buffay · #83

Well damn I can only see today, group 2.

Phoebe Buffay · #84

813, sorry I'm not awake yet. I see what you think from one of your prior posts. I don't have any other firm idea except maybe Elohcin who replaced in and is usually way too busy to handle two threads. I think Dom is the better answer though so I'm ok letting the current guess stand (Dom for 0).

Celeste · #85

Damn, looks like I went to bed and missed the question entirely.

Gunther · #86

Hello? Hosts? It's now 10:00 Central, an hour after the deadline. Can we get some results up in here? I'm the boss. Need the "info."

Okay, so I'm not really the boss in this situation but it felt good to say. Just eager to get our hands on our next (and judging by the time remaining, final) questions.

Gunther · #87

Also, since Group 1 is on the same wavelength, I would encourage everyone here who has not yet voted (and those willing to change their vote) to vote for Prisoner 219747. If the next challenge requires full prisoner participation, we know that we cannot count on 219747 at all.

#88

I'm very sorry gang, I overslept. I will get the result of Q4 and the new Q set up now. Thanks for your patience.

#89

Group 1 answered Epignosis
Group 2 bet $0 on Dom

You did not win this question, fortunately you did not have any money riding on it!
The pot total currently stands at $650

You will have to bet at least $100 and win in order to accomplish this challenge.

Question 5: How many baddies do you believe are currently in prison with you? You have until the end of the day place a bet on what Group 1 will answer. This is your final question. Good luck!

Gunther · #90

Alright, here's where it would help to have a note-taker in Group 1. I will provide my analysis in just a little bit. Obviously we have to bet 100 on this one to reach our goal.

Gunther · #91

Okay, so here's the scoop y'all. I took a bunch of notes during our one day in the game on who got lynched (which means arrested) by the town during day phases and who got thrown in jail or killed at night. This should help us rationalize how many possible "baddies" are in the slammer with us. If you want all the "gory details" open up the spoiler section. Otherwise just skip down to my answer.

Spoiler: show

DAY 2

ORIGINAL PRISONERS (11):
Prisoner 208986
Prisoner 277058
Prisoner 379949
Prisoner 413022
Prisoner 509378
Prisoner 513538
Prisoner 640326
Prisoner 650829
Prisoner 740359
Prisoner 813142
Prisoner 920077

Our prison threads began on Day 2, meaning that any one being thrown in prison on Day or Night 1 are among us. This means that both Diiny and Tranq are among the original prisoners. Diiny was lynched and Tranq arrested at night. I have no idea which prisoner they are/were, nor would I be allowed to reveal that information if I knew it. We don't know if any of the original prisoners qualify as "baddie plants," so I am operating on the assumption that there were no such "plants."

DAY 3

Prisoner 208986
Prisoner 277058
Prisoner 379949
Prisoner 413022
Prisoner 509378
Prisoner 513538
Prisoner 640326
Prisoner 650829
Prisoner 740359
Prisoner 813142
Prisoner 920077
Prisoner 980854

Only one player joined us in prison on Day 3 and that was Prisoner 980854, who was actually RadicalFuzz and they were revealed to be a baddie upon the Day 2 lynch. No one was arrested on Night 2.

DAY 4

Prisoner 208986
Prisoner 277058
Prisoner 379949
Prisoner 413022
Prisoner 509378
Prisoner 513538
Prisoner 640326
Prisoner 650829
Prisoner 740359
Prisoner 813142
Prisoner 888206
Prisoner 920077
Prisoner 980854

On Day 4, there was once again just one player joining us, Prisoner 888206. This person was Long Con, who was lynched Day 3 and revealed to be Team Sockface. He was later "modkilled" for breaking the rules and his Prisoner identity was revealed to all.

DAY 5
Prisoner 208986
Prisoner 277058
Prisoner 331347
Prisoner 379949
Prisoner 413022
Prisoner 483934
Prisoner 509378
Prisoner 513538
Prisoner 640326
Prisoner 650829
Prisoner 740359
Prisoner 813142
Prisoner 888206
Prisoner 920077
Prisoner 980854

This was our big jailbreak day but we still had new inmates in our ranks. Prisoner 331347 and Prisoner 483934 joined us. I have reason to believe both of them are good because Agleaminranks was lynched and revealed to be Team Sockface Day 4 and Metalmarsh89 was arrested Night 4. We do not know Metalmarsh's team but since it seems teams Sockface and Daisy cannot arrest players, he must be good. We do not know which is which nor are we allowed to out them if we do.

During out jailbreak, Prisoners 509378 and 740359 were paroled. It is unclear if they are still active in the game, dead, or re-arrested. Prisoner 888206 was modkilled for breaking the rules. Prisoners 379949, 513538, and 980854 were all killed Night 5 but we do not know by whom.

DAY 6

Prisoner 153930
Prisoner 208986
Prisoner 219747
Prisoner 277058
Prisoner 331347
Prisoner 413022
Prisoner 483934
Prisoner 606386
Prisoner 640326
Prisoner 650829
Prisoner 813142
Prisoner 920077

On Day 6, we found ourselves back in prison with three new inmates: Prisoner 153930, Prisoner 219747, and Prisoner 606386. We know that Dragon D. Luffy was lynched and revealed to be Team Sockface. The other two prisoners must have been arrested by the Police Night 5, so we can assume that they are good. We do not know which prisoner is Dragon D. Luffy, nor should we speculate or out them if we know which prisoner they are. That would be against the rules.

DAY 7
Prisoner 126993
Prisoner 153930
Prisoner 208986
Prisoner 219747
Prisoner 277058
Prisoner 331347
Prisoner 413022
Prisoner 419713
Prisoner 483934
Prisoner 606386
Prisoner 640326
Prisoner 650829
Prisoner 813142
Prisoner 920077

On Day 7, we found ourselves with two new inmates: Prisoner 126993 and Prisoner 419713. We don't know anything about the circumstances by which they came to the prison, nor are late arrivals allowed to reveal any timeline events from the "game thread." We don't need anyone else getting "modkilled" you know. If we assume one was lynched and one was arrested, then we can assume that at least one of these two inmates could be a lynched "baddie." So as of Day 7, there could be only one baddie among us.

DAY 8

Prisoner 126993
Prisoner 153930
Prisoner 208986
Prisoner 219747
Prisoner 277058
Prisoner 331347
Prisoner 413022
Prisoner 419713
Prisoner 483934
Prisoner 541395
Prisoner 606386
Prisoner 640326
Prisoner 650829
Prisoner 792787
Prisoner 813142
Prisoner 920077

On Day 8, we also only received two new prisoners to this cage of ours. Prisoner 541395 and Prisoner 792787 joined us for the day of what should have been the easily-winnable foreign language challenge. With the operating assumption that the two "families" cannot arrest players, then we are left with the conclusion that only one of these two could be a lynched "baddie," thereby raising the potential number of "baddies" among us to two.

DAY 9

Prisoner 126993
Prisoner 153930
Prisoner 208986
Prisoner 219747
Prisoner 277058
Prisoner 331347
Prisoner 413022
Prisoner 419713
Prisoner 483934
Prisoner 541395
Prisoner 606386
Prisoner 640326
Prisoner 650829
Prisoner 714386
Prisoner 792787
Prisoner 813142
Prisoner 920077

Ah, the present day, if you will. Today we are joined by just one new prisoner: Prisoner 714386. We do not know if they were lynched or arrested, so we have to assume it possible that they are a lynched "baddie," which brings our grand total of potential "baddies" among us to three.

Now there is one caveat to all this. I believe that somewhere along the line it was made mention that there was something called a "seemer" role that can make itself look like another role when lynched. Take that with a grain of salt.

So there you have it. If the "game thread" players got really lucky, the maximum number of possible baddies among us is three coming from the Day 6, Day 7, and Day 8 lynches, with the asterisk and footnote that there could have been a "seemer" in play.

Now we must ask ourselves this- do we think that the "civvies" got lucky enough to lynch three of the Police in three consecutive lynches or possibly go two out of three with a possible "seemer" lurking among us?

My best guess would be that there are two baddies among us in the prison population. What does everyone else think about that, given the information I provided?

Celeste · #92

I think another thing to look at is how much the newcomers have contributed and what they said. I think baddies would be slightly more hesitant when showing up in here.

Phoebe Buffay · #93

813, was the talk about the seemer in the thread indicating that they thought they had killed the seemer or was it just random talk about someone being the seemer?

Phoebe Buffay · #94

It just occurred to me that maybe you can't discuss that 813 because it happened in the main thread. No modkills!

Phoebe Buffay · #95

Ok, even with a seemer in the game I still think the number is two for the other reasons you laid out 813. I don't think they would have been lucky enough to get 3. I agree it would be nice to know how much the newcomers had participated but I only recall 606 and 153 participating, though for the last posting challenge everyone who was here contributed except 219 and 331. Anyway, I agree with your 2 813.

Celeste · #96

Do we think Group 1 will guess 2?

Phoebe Buffay · #97

Prisoner 483934 wrote:Do we think Group 1 will guess 2?

I just don't know. I don't know how to project what they will say on this one. I think it will be a low number though.

Phoebe Buffay · #98

Where is everybody?

Gunther · #99

Prisoner 208986 wrote:It just occurred to me that maybe you can't discuss that 813 because it happened in the main thread. No modkills!

No, I just couldn't remember the specifics of the "seemer" discussion. I checked the role list here and it's pretty obvious. One of the Police roles can appear as any role he or she wants when lynched.

Prisoner 483934 wrote:Do we think Group 1 will guess 2?

That's the 100-point question, isn't it? What would you (and anyone else) have guessed before my post?

Phoebe Buffay · #100

I had guessed 2 before I saw your information.

Whom will you shank?