Cartomancy [Game Over]

[DrWilgy]

I also think that when the game is hard we obviously vote out SPF, but now is not then.

Why SPF? Meta thing? When I've caught SPF before it was due to PoE.

No. *when the game is obviously hard e.g. ive obviously whiffed on most people below SPF*

Why are you voting sig?

Because I'm not confident on you.

Creature is a fine option as well, but I don't think creature is contributing to the theoretical town infighting we are seeing.

Sig can definitely be along for the town in fight ride.

Not contributing to the town infighting literally is what the hypothetical mafia are doing in your hypothetical.

err... Contributing may not have been the correct word. Enabling may be better.

Creature I think has gone against the grain more than Sig.

Don't misinterpret me here, they are both good options and wolfy. I just think the gamestate reflects worse on Sig.

[DrWilgy]

Seanzie/SPF/Falcon does probably in fact contain exactly one wolf was the only thing I gathered overnight.

What generated this list? Again, idk how to catch SPF without a PoE, but if this one is valid we can go from there.

No, we cannot go from there.
The list generated from my brain figuring out that the reason I consider Roxy as town yesterday was because I was missing wolves and therefore that I was probably wrong about some of my townreads.

I see. This makes sense but I agree, not enough to form anything solid that'd lead me to catching SPF at this juncture.

[Bereft]

Sig has been going against the grain by ... shouting at everyone to not follow Alsion's legacy. Did you notice that one?

[Seanzie]

Seanzie/SPF/Falcon does probably in fact contain exactly one wolf was the only thing I gathered overnight.

Sean is starting to ping me. I feel he's laying an undue amount of burden at Mac's feet...and he talks about a rotten towncore, but is he not part of said core? It's not as tho he's been a major wagon or anything

I'm not laying an undue amount of burden at Mac's feet. My burden is with the group {SPF, Mac, Bereft}. I don't think the burden I've placed on that group as a whole is undue.

[staypositivefriend]

also the implication that me/mac/bereft are powerwolfing implies that we are responsible for creating the gamestate, when much of our play has been in reaction to the gamestate. we opposed the baud and alison wagons on d1. i opposed the alison wagon on d2 before the day ended, and the only day where really got a good say in eliminating exactly who i wanted to was exactly yesterday

i do have paranoia about exactly bereft being mafia, but even if we live in that world, it feels more likely to me that the wolves are coasting in a wolfsided gamestate instead of going out of their way to create the gamestate. im not sure that i would call that powerwolfing as much as i would call it just sitting back and waiting to win the game

No, it implies that you did not do anything to prevent this gamestate. Has town played well? No. Have the town leaders fixed that? no. If all the people town is looking up to are wolves, it isn't that hard to simply nudge town away from the occasional wolf wagon that might pop up and otherwise let the leaderless townies bury themselves.

That is what this game feels like.

this does not sound like an accurate assessment of how this game has progressed

on day one, the top wagons for a good portion of the dayphasewere baud and alison, who were both town. i (along with mac/bereft) fought against these wagons, which ended with us killing fingersplints specifically because she fit into a world where the wolves were disingenuously trying to get alison miseliminated

on day two, the dayphase did not exist, but i expressed concern that alison might just be a villager and that i was discontent with the gamestate right before it ended. there wasn't much else i could have done to "prevent" the gamestate in that phase

i think that day 3 is the closest you come to having a legitimate point, because it is true that me/mac/bereft advocated for roxy to be eliminated. i will note that i actively pursued options yesterday that were not roxy and made a point to keep my vote off of her wagon for the entire dayphase, even though i perceived her as the consensus wagon

so, i guess my question is, what else do you think i could have reasonably done to keep the gamestate from becoming the way that it has? i was able to identify that there was T/T violence happening on d1. and i tried to get people off of those wagons, but there is only so much one person can do. i'm only as good as the rest of my team

[staypositivefriend]

changed my mind overnight and dont think sig is mafia anymore. i think sabi/creature/jack contains at least 2.

think the game is being deepwolfed by probably exactly tutuu/one other player but im interested in just voting out a wolf today regardless of anything else

what wonderful means changed your mind?

mostly that im not sure sig would wear his TMI that roxy was going to flip town so brazenly yesterday, and the way he has consistently come off as being jaded and betrayed by the game feels like a nearly identical perspective to the one that roxy projected at the end of yesterday. roxy and sig were linked in my mind in a number of ways and roxy flipping town increased the chances that sig is town too for a number of reasons

it is possible that im clearing sig too easily but yeah

[DrWilgy]

Sig has been going against the grain by ... shouting at everyone to not follow Alsion's legacy. Did you notice that one?

Aye, but I don't think he actually carried any momentum into that.

If Sig really wanted to make a stink about it they could've.

Just easy enough to say one is right and go 'hey look I was right.' Don't that sound familiar?

[DrWilgy]

changed my mind overnight and dont think sig is mafia anymore. i think sabi/creature/jack contains at least 2.

think the game is being deepwolfed by probably exactly tutuu/one other player but im interested in just voting out a wolf today regardless of anything else

what wonderful means changed your mind?

mostly that im not sure sig would wear his TMI that roxy was going to flip town so brazenly yesterday, and the way he has consistently come off as being jaded and betrayed by the game feels like a nearly identical perspective to the one that roxy projected at the end of yesterday. roxy and sig were linked in my mind in a number of ways and roxy flipping town increased the chances that sig is town too for a number of reasons

it is possible that im clearing sig too easily but yeah

I honestly think the opposite. Sig would very much be like 'wow I was right' as any alignment. I do really think the argument more is the difference between vehemently opposing the Roxy wagon vs letting it be while still ending on the correct side of history.

[DrWilgy]

like. Sig could've voted Creature.

[Seanzie]

@Seanzie @Creature talk to be about SPF

If there aren't at least two wolves in SPF/Mac/Bereft, the game makes no sense.

What makes this list possible?

I think that there's one wolf between them, but I'd be very surprised to see 2 in these 3.

I don't see the game going the way it has if that group is mostly town.

Seanzie you literally are a main cause for why it is the way it is. And you're blaming the abstract idea that we'd stop it. You tunneled the towniest player in the game right up until they died then moved on to me. Pull your fucking head out of your ass.

I'm not "blaming" anyone or anything. I'm making a read.

Your read is that if I was town that the game wouldn't be where it is when I've been fighting against a gamestate you've been far more complicit in. You're literally 1984 as fuck. You are doing shit and then blaming me for not preventing it. It's maddening.

My read is that a group {SPF, Mac, Bereft} should be leading us, and they aren't so the group has wolves.

I have not been complicit in the gamestate. My reads have been ignored and none of the people I have pushed for have gotten chopped. The only effect I've had on the gamestate is that I've defended people like Falcon and Creature, because I think they're more likely town than not, and I think I've helped avoid wagons on them.

[Bereft]

My read is that a group {SPF, Mac, Bereft} should be leading us, and they aren't so the group has wolves.

I have not been complicit in the gamestate. My reads have been ignored and none of the people I have pushed for have gotten chopped. The only effect I've had on the gamestate is that I've defended people like Falcon and Creature, because I think they're more likely town than not, and I think I've helped avoid wagons on them.

You spent yesterday arguing with us, how were we supposed to direct anyone when no one trusts us.

[DrWilgy]

Kinda want to say Seanzie is my ride or die but I havent seen him as wolf so I will just say town for now

Does Seanzie allow a Rondo NK with a post like this out there?

I don't think so unless Rondo was 100% all in as a teammate.

[Jackofhearts2005]

@Seanzie @Creature talk to be about SPF

If there aren't at least two wolves in SPF/Mac/Bereft, the game makes no sense.

Lemme stop you right there.

[staypositivefriend]

changed my mind overnight and dont think sig is mafia anymore. i think sabi/creature/jack contains at least 2.

think the game is being deepwolfed by probably exactly tutuu/one other player but im interested in just voting out a wolf today regardless of anything else

what wonderful means changed your mind?

mostly that im not sure sig would wear his TMI that roxy was going to flip town so brazenly yesterday, and the way he has consistently come off as being jaded and betrayed by the game feels like a nearly identical perspective to the one that roxy projected at the end of yesterday. roxy and sig were linked in my mind in a number of ways and roxy flipping town increased the chances that sig is town too for a number of reasons

it is possible that im clearing sig too easily but yeah

I honestly think the opposite. Sig would very much be like 'wow I was right' as any alignment. I do really think the argument more is the difference between vehemently opposing the Roxy wagon vs letting it be while still ending on the correct side of history.

i'm not sure that i can blame sig for not fighting hard to save roxy because in his position as villager then he would probably feel powerless against the overwhelming consensus of: "roxy mafia"

i do think it's true that sig would be incentivized as mafia to let the roxy elimination happen, but in that position, my intuition is that most wolves would play it a little more ...covertly? instead of just talking over and over about how roxy is going to flip town and how stupid everyone is about to look. it feels jaded to me in a way that is also unstrategic

[Jackofhearts2005]

Seanzie your appraisal of this gamestate is egregious. Bereft and SPF are the only people whose reads actually make sense. Why are you pushing into us 3 and not Jack/Tutuu/Wilgy and other actual wolfy players?

If multiple days go by with a rockstar twoncore and no wolves die, the rockstar towncore is rotten.

And no shots in the rockstar towncore either.

[falcon45ca]

Seanzie/SPF/Falcon does probably in fact contain exactly one wolf was the only thing I gathered overnight.

Sean is starting to ping me. I feel he's laying an undue amount of burden at Mac's feet...and he talks about a rotten towncore, but is he not part of said core? It's not as tho he's been a major wagon or anything

I'm not laying an undue amount of burden at Mac's feet. My burden is with the group {SPF, Mac, Bereft}. I don't think the burden I've placed on that group as a whole is undue.

Of those 3, I choose SPF.

[Jackofhearts2005]

I don't want to jetison my reads but I feel like I'm lemminging off a cliff.

[Seanzie]

Kinda want to say Seanzie is my ride or die but I havent seen him as wolf so I will just say town for now

Does Seanzie allow a Rondo NK with a post like this out there?

I don't think so unless Rondo was 100% all in as a teammate.

There are 5 wolves, so no one wolf is going to have a strong veto on NK because of a D1 post. There are better reasons to townread me than this.

[staypositivefriend]

Seanzie/SPF/Falcon does probably in fact contain exactly one wolf was the only thing I gathered overnight.

Sean is starting to ping me. I feel he's laying an undue amount of burden at Mac's feet...and he talks about a rotten towncore, but is he not part of said core? It's not as tho he's been a major wagon or anything

I'm not laying an undue amount of burden at Mac's feet. My burden is with the group {SPF, Mac, Bereft}. I don't think the burden I've placed on that group as a whole is undue.

Of those 3, I choose SPF.

why?

[Seanzie]

Seanzie/SPF/Falcon does probably in fact contain exactly one wolf was the only thing I gathered overnight.

Sean is starting to ping me. I feel he's laying an undue amount of burden at Mac's feet...and he talks about a rotten towncore, but is he not part of said core? It's not as tho he's been a major wagon or anything

I'm not laying an undue amount of burden at Mac's feet. My burden is with the group {SPF, Mac, Bereft}. I don't think the burden I've placed on that group as a whole is undue.

Of those 3, I choose SPF.

I'm voting SPF for a reason.

[falcon45ca]

I also suspected Alison, Roxy, and tho I didn't vote fingers and know she's LHF, I didn't find her towny which means I found her scummy.


It's time to start looking at the unusual suspects I think

[Jackofhearts2005]

If I'm gonna hold onto one read, it's "SPF town."

If I'm gonna hold onto two reads, the other is "Creature wolf."

But that's like....exactly the status quo that wolves don't care at all to upset. Game is hard.

[MacDougall]

If there aren't at least two wolves in SPF/Mac/Bereft, the game makes no sense.

What makes this list possible?

I think that there's one wolf between them, but I'd be very surprised to see 2 in these 3.

I don't see the game going the way it has if that group is mostly town.

Seanzie you literally are a main cause for why it is the way it is. And you're blaming the abstract idea that we'd stop it. You tunneled the towniest player in the game right up until they died then moved on to me. Pull your fucking head out of your ass.

I'm not "blaming" anyone or anything. I'm making a read.

Your read is that if I was town that the game wouldn't be where it is when I've been fighting against a gamestate you've been far more complicit in. You're literally 1984 as fuck. You are doing shit and then blaming me for not preventing it. It's maddening.

My read is that a group {SPF, Mac, Bereft} should be leading us, and they aren't so the group has wolves.

I have not been complicit in the gamestate. My reads have been ignored and none of the people I have pushed for have gotten chopped. The only effect I've had on the gamestate is that I've defended people like Falcon and Creature, because I think they're more likely town than not, and I think I've helped avoid wagons on them.

You were one of the main people pushing Baudib on day 1. It's disingenuous to say you're not complicit in the gamestate when you did that AND voted Alison on day 1. You are not alone but you're part of the core group.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Seanzie and Falcon, sell me on SPF being a wolf.

[Bereft]

How is tutuu being a wolf ignored in all of this.

[staypositivefriend]

i'm like....a player that exists in the game. you can interact with me. you can figure out my alignment by talking to me about my reads and asking me questions. it is a pet peeve of mine when people try to read me on vibes without seeming to care much for the actual stuff i'm saying. feels like i'm a ghost at times

[DrWilgy]

Kinda want to say Seanzie is my ride or die but I havent seen him as wolf so I will just say town for now

Does Seanzie allow a Rondo NK with a post like this out there?

I don't think so unless Rondo was 100% all in as a teammate.

There are 5 wolves, so no one wolf is going to have a strong veto on NK because of a D1 post. There are better reasons to townread me than this.

Some of the ISO's being fucky if you don't go through the "replies" buttons have me all bugged up here. I was thinking this was a more recent post and was trying to understand.

[Jackofhearts2005]

How is tutuu being a wolf ignored in all of this.

WHY is Tutuu a wolf?

[MacDougall]

How is tutuu being a wolf ignored in all of this.

In what world is tutuu being ignored?

[falcon45ca]

Seanzie/SPF/Falcon does probably in fact contain exactly one wolf was the only thing I gathered overnight.

Sean is starting to ping me. I feel he's laying an undue amount of burden at Mac's feet...and he talks about a rotten towncore, but is he not part of said core? It's not as tho he's been a major wagon or anything

I'm not laying an undue amount of burden at Mac's feet. My burden is with the group {SPF, Mac, Bereft}. I don't think the burden I've placed on that group as a whole is undue.

Of those 3, I choose SPF.

why?

What's your solve right now? Who are your top 3 sus and why plz?

[MacDougall]

How is tutuu being a wolf ignored in all of this.

WHY is Tutuu a wolf?

Maybe you should read the game you're pretending to try and solve

[Creature]

i'm like....a player that exists in the game. you can interact with me. you can figure out my alignment by talking to me about my reads and asking me questions.

You can brush my hair, undress me everywhere

[falcon45ca]

Seanzie and Falcon, sell me on SPF being a wolf.

I'm not selling anything, I picked a player out of 3 that were presented.

[DrWilgy]

How is tutuu being a wolf ignored in all of this.

Is it being ignored?

It's definitely a possibility, but I think it's a gamble I'd be very shaky on.

Tutuu's conviction towards alot of slots could very much be TMI.

The thing that may support this is that all of the slots Tutuu wrs are what I'd think are very *safe* and apply to people that are 1 unfamiliar or 2 often misread.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Like if I'm jetisoning a strong townread, it's Mac, not SPF or Tutuu. Mac has been erratic and thrown out random accusations.

But why aren't any of those three dead? I didn't miss another mass redirect did I?

[Bereft]

How is tutuu being a wolf ignored in all of this.

In what world is tutuu being ignored?

By Wilgy et. al

The Mac/SPF/Bereft thing is getting pretty old. We're not the only deepwolf candidates in the game.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Seanzie and Falcon, sell me on SPF being a wolf.

I'm not selling anything, I picked a player out of 3 that were presented.

Okay. Why SPF about of those three then?

[Creature]

i'm like....a player that exists in the game. you can interact with me. you can figure out my alignment by talking to me about my reads and asking me questions.

You can brush my hair, undress me everywhere

Sorry I couldn't resist.

Still found myself agreeing with Seanzie that there's something wrong with our rockstar towncore.

[Seanzie]

What makes this list possible?

I think that there's one wolf between them, but I'd be very surprised to see 2 in these 3.

I don't see the game going the way it has if that group is mostly town.

Seanzie you literally are a main cause for why it is the way it is. And you're blaming the abstract idea that we'd stop it. You tunneled the towniest player in the game right up until they died then moved on to me. Pull your fucking head out of your ass.

I'm not "blaming" anyone or anything. I'm making a read.

Your read is that if I was town that the game wouldn't be where it is when I've been fighting against a gamestate you've been far more complicit in. You're literally 1984 as fuck. You are doing shit and then blaming me for not preventing it. It's maddening.

My read is that a group {SPF, Mac, Bereft} should be leading us, and they aren't so the group has wolves.

I have not been complicit in the gamestate. My reads have been ignored and none of the people I have pushed for have gotten chopped. The only effect I've had on the gamestate is that I've defended people like Falcon and Creature, because I think they're more likely town than not, and I think I've helped avoid wagons on them.

You were one of the main people pushing Baudib on day 1. It's disingenuous to say you're not complicit in the gamestate when you did that AND voted Alison on day 1. You are not alone but you're part of the core group.

I did push Baudib, and I was wrong, but that isn't being complicit in anything. I only voted Alison when the day was almost done (5 minutes left) and a FS wagon appeared out of nowhere (unless you mean earlier in the day when I was voting Alison and Baudib to see how people would react to the tie). Alison was not a great choice IMO, but at that point, only Alison and FS were viable, at AT LEAST Alison is someone we talked about that day so their flip would be more beneficial than an infoless FS flip.

Neither of these things is being complicit in the gamestate.

[DrWilgy]

How is tutuu being a wolf ignored in all of this.

In what world is tutuu being ignored?

By Wilgy et. al

The Mac/SPF/Bereft thing is getting pretty old. We're not the only deepwolf candidates in the game.

I agree. Catching the deep wolf at this gamestate feels very risky to potential vocal town.

I think I'd just get the town fighting enablist slanker teammates.

[Jackofhearts2005]

How is tutuu being a wolf ignored in all of this.

WHY is Tutuu a wolf?

Maybe you should read the game you're pretending to try and solve

Such hostility.

[Creature]

[VOTE: tutuu] aubergine

[Seanzie]

Seanzie and Falcon, sell me on SPF being a wolf.

I'm not going to do that. I know I can't outargue the heavy hitters out there, and I've learned enough from mafia that when I'm the underdog in these sorts of situations, I shouldn't even try to case them, it will be torn to shreds and it will be written off by the town.

I leave it to you to convince yourself, or them to slip up.

[staypositivefriend]

Seanzie/SPF/Falcon does probably in fact contain exactly one wolf was the only thing I gathered overnight.

Sean is starting to ping me. I feel he's laying an undue amount of burden at Mac's feet...and he talks about a rotten towncore, but is he not part of said core? It's not as tho he's been a major wagon or anything

I'm not laying an undue amount of burden at Mac's feet. My burden is with the group {SPF, Mac, Bereft}. I don't think the burden I've placed on that group as a whole is undue.

Of those 3, I choose SPF.

why?

What's your solve right now? Who are your top 3 sus and why plz?

my current view of the game is that i would be mildly surprised if the pool of sabi/creature/jack didn't contain at least two mafia

sabi because sabi is very talented at projecting towniness/solveiness when they are town, and they also have a tendency to get extremely invested into games when they are town and post a lot of content/thoughts without needing to think much about them

whereas sabi here feels a lot more timid, a lot less invested, and it feels like they are choosing their words carefully in the majority of posts that they do make. i think that if sabi was town, it would be eaiser to find them as town right now, which is why i want more pressure on them today in general

creature is in my immediate POE because he fits the archetype of a wolf who has aggressively pushed for the consensus while maintaining a comfortable/protected view in the gamestate. his reads have consistently contained a level of confidence and bravado that do not feel proportional to his solving, and that also do not feel proportional to how creature usually solves games as town

im also pretty convinced that if creature was town he would be throwing a fit about me/mac needing to be deepwolves right now instead of just kind of passively sitting back in the gamestate and voting me without really expressing a particularly coherent view of the game. i think creature's passivity in this gamestate could be explained by him just wanting us to continue burying each other alive

jack because his push on alison on d1 was illogical and bad faith, and the type of stuff he pushed on alison for is not the stuff i think jack!town would care about as someone who was already very familiar with alison. i also think that his primary intention for the last phase has been to pocket me, sit back, and watch us set ourselves on fire

im working it out beyond that but i think bereft/tutuu contains 1 and that it is likely to be tutuu

[Jackofhearts2005]

I voted Creature and then immediately unvoted. Idk what to do.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Seanzie and Falcon, sell me on SPF being a wolf.

I'm not going to do that. I know I can't outargue the heavy hitters out there, and I've learned enough from mafia that when I'm the underdog in these sorts of situations, I shouldn't even try to case them, it will be torn to shreds and it will be written off by the town.

I leave it to you to convince yourself, or them to slip up.

SPF was my top townread yesterday. Obviously, there's something wrong in my worldview but "lol case them yourself" is not helpful.

I think you and Falcon are town anyway. Cause I don't think wolves do this. But gah if it is SPF, I'm not gonna get there on my own cause I don't see anything that looks dishonest as opposed to just wrong.

[Bereft]

Jack/Creature being w/w would be weird but their interactions have been weirding me out forever so I'll take it. I am currently of the opinion that Kate/Sabi is town and even if I were to entertain them being mafia, they're at minimum not paired with tutuu.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Seanzie/SPF/Falcon does probably in fact contain exactly one wolf was the only thing I gathered overnight.

Sean is starting to ping me. I feel he's laying an undue amount of burden at Mac's feet...and he talks about a rotten towncore, but is he not part of said core? It's not as tho he's been a major wagon or anything

I'm not laying an undue amount of burden at Mac's feet. My burden is with the group {SPF, Mac, Bereft}. I don't think the burden I've placed on that group as a whole is undue.

Of those 3, I choose SPF.

why?

What's your solve right now? Who are your top 3 sus and why plz?

my current view of the game is that i would be mildly surprised if the pool of sabi/creature/jack didn't contain at least two mafia

sabi because sabi is very talented at projecting towniness/solveiness when they are town, and they also have a tendency to get extremely invested into games when they are town and post a lot of content/thoughts without needing to think much about them

whereas sabi here feels a lot more timid, a lot less invested, and it feels like they are choosing their words carefully in the majority of posts that they do make. i think that if sabi was town, it would be eaiser to find them as town right now, which is why i want more pressure on them today in general

creature is in my immediate POE because he fits the archetype of a wolf who has aggressively pushed for the consensus while maintaining a comfortable/protected view in the gamestate. his reads have consistently contained a level of confidence and bravado that do not feel proportional to his solving, and that also do not feel proportional to how creature usually solves games as town

im also pretty convinced that if creature was town he would be throwing a fit about me/mac needing to be deepwolves right now instead of just kind of passively sitting back in the gamestate and voting me without really expressing a particularly coherent view of the game. i think creature's passivity in this gamestate could be explained by him just wanting us to continue burying each other alive

jack because his push on alison on d1 was illogical and bad faith, and the type of stuff he pushed on alison for is not the stuff i think jack!town would care about as someone who was already very familiar with alison. i also think that his primary intention for the last phase has been to pocket me, sit back, and watch us set ourselves on fire

im working it out beyond that but i think bereft/tutuu contains 1 and that it is likely to be tutuu

SPF, if it's me and Creature and the towncore of SPF/Tutuu/Mac is all townies...why the fuck did we shoot Rondo?

[Bereft]

We shot Rondo because he is the most obvious town and everybody and their momma has been tinfoiling Mac/SPF/Bereft all of yesterday.

[Bereft]

AHAHAHHAHAHAHA