PSY 2310 - Cognitive Psychology [END]

[bronana]

Sunbae, I have very little personal experience with your wolf game, don't think I've ever seen you wolf outside of a turbo, and I think we were actually w/w in it. I don't think I've ever been great at townreading you either. I'm confused by that sentiment. I have mostly been fairly positive on you so far anyway, me randomly throwing out your name as a possible wolf and saying "meh" to that thought hardly changes that

[bronana]

also this game doesn't have maj until lylo so there's no point to still be chilling in unvote, fyi Sunbae/marl/vulgard

[dyachei]

the people I'm most concerned about are all voting me

[bronana]

0 wolves hype: Outed Wolf, Arete, Dya
1 wolf hopefully: SPF, c4, Bronana, Amy
POE: Chloe, dsyl, nutella, marl, alison

I'm unclear why you seem to not care that much who dies between dya/Alison

you locked dya in as town (later started walking it back some) while Alison was in your poe the whole time and now you're like "meh who cares" about the wagons when dya is several votes ahead of Alison with zero other candidates and idgi

[bronana]

the people I'm most concerned about are all voting me

also yeah same lul

[sunbae]

I have a few reasons for my uncertainty atm bronana but they are a bit complicated as I try to sort the game state.

I think I've had a few interactions of people telling me my reasons for feeling good about Dya are flawed - and I readily admit the reasons were things I'm known for getting fooled by specifically. Amy really not liking Dya's handling of her also concerns me. I spent a great portion of the game feeling like Alison/Dya was specifically w/v (I feel like I'm pretty good at recognizing v/v thunderdomes) but I have reasons to suspect both of them are the wolf. Not only do I have a couple of people giving HEAVY villa reads to Alison (Vul specifically?) which give me pause, but I also have some warning bells going off about how Chloe spoke about Alison (the "wouldn't alison claim as a wolf if she thought the day was almost over" thing into backing off of it once the wagon continued). I feel like it's a very possible situation where a wolf (chloe) is trying to explain why a villager is a villager but does so in a way that starts from the "they are a villager, why are they acting this way" mindset.

You also have Alison basically shutting down (the antispew mentioned by others). I spent some time last night trying to figure out if maybe I was so confused by the situation because the answer was both of them are wolves. I still think it's possible though not probable.

Then I have the additional issue of last night trying to sort through the game in tiers and not really loving what I was coming up with. So today I am just getting my head on straight and focusing on a swath of the game I've kinda just not focused on too strongly outside of some real time interaction feel reads to hopefully help me on this call.

[Dyslexicon]

[VOTE: Alison] aubergine

[bronana]

I have a few reasons for my uncertainty atm bronana but they are a bit complicated as I try to sort the game state.

I think I've had a few interactions of people telling me my reasons for feeling good about Dya are flawed - and I readily admit the reasons were things I'm known for getting fooled by specifically. Amy really not liking Dya's handling of her also concerns me. I spent a great portion of the game feeling like Alison/Dya was specifically w/v (I feel like I'm pretty good at recognizing v/v thunderdomes) but I have reasons to suspect both of them are the wolf. Not only do I have a couple of people giving HEAVY villa reads to Alison (Vul specifically?) which give me pause, but I also have some warning bells going off about how Chloe spoke about Alison (the "wouldn't alison claim as a wolf if she thought the day was almost over" thing into backing off of it once the wagon continued). I feel like it's a very possible situation where a wolf (chloe) is trying to explain why a villager is a villager but does so in a way that starts from the "they are a villager, why are they acting this way" mindset.

You also have Alison basically shutting down (the antispew mentioned by others). I spent some time last night trying to figure out if maybe I was so confused by the situation because the answer was both of them are wolves. I still think it's possible though not probable.

Then I have the additional issue of last night trying to sort through the game in tiers and not really loving what I was coming up with. So today I am just getting my head on straight and focusing on a swath of the game I've kinda just not focused on too strongly outside of some real time interaction feel reads to hopefully help me on this call.

if you look deep into your heart, ponder the depths of your soul, gun to your head

who do you vote for / think are the wolves and who are the villagers?

i think you do actually know what you believe but are letting others distract you and make you uncertain. stick to your guns

[bronana]

right now I'm at alison + chloe + 1

if alison flips villa or dya flips wolf, i'll re-evaluate

(is it just me or has arete been pretty quiet this phase? i am not crazy about vulgard's d2 either, i don't know if I'm comfortable calling them v/v regardless of how well they claim to read each other)

(game hard plz make ez)

(out for a bit)

[Vulgard]

Both Alison and dya have done things I townread them for before, and now they are both top wagons.

People have been giving me arguments why dya is mafia. Okay.

People have been giving me arguments why Alison is mafia. Okay.

I have been wrong on Gavial and on Amy (given the lack of CC). Okay.

But I think these wagons are bad. I don't see why mafia Alison would treat Gavial like this despite knowing he would be likely to flip from how day 1 played out. She should have awareness of her own TMI as a wolf and approach accordingly.

I don't see why mafia Dya would push on Alison in the snappy way that they did. It's possible they were doing w/w theater, but I honestly struggle to see it. If they were w/w, they wouldn't play d2 like they have. They are kinda self-pressing on each other, dya is calling Alison a wolf, Alison isn't... really... calling dya a wolf back? Or maybe I missed it. If they were partners doing theater and becoming the top two wagons on day 2, I think they would continue this theater throughout the day so one would be spewed clear. Or, I don't know, do SOMETHING. It feels like both are ready to get flipped since neither is really fighting the votes on them, and it's puzzling play coming from wolves.

Why is it not puzzling play coming from villagers? ...It is. It still is. That's why I haven't been like "these are V/V wagons guaranteed, let's CFD." But this still feels wrong to me. Marl calling Alison hyperwolfy feels wrong to me. I know he has experience with her, but I do too, and we have an entirely different perspective. That's just one thing that's seemed off to me about these last ~12 hours.

My heart tells me to CFD, but I'm not sure where to go with it, and it could have disastrous results. Like hitting another PR. And after the Gavial read backfired on me for the first time ever (and after I pushed someone who is now almost certainly tracker!Amy - town PR!Amy), I'm not sure I have a great handle on this game.

I've been trying to lay low for the past few hours and read what other people were thinking. I've been trying to discuss with the players pushing for either Alison or Dya, and I feel an overwhelming level of indifference for some reason. This isn't as clear-cut to me as it seems to be to everyone else.

I'm still going to vote for one of them at EoD if I have to, just so that my vote matters, but the reason I'm not voting anyone right now is because I'm still trying to evaluate the gamestate.

[Arete]

I don't know how to quote on mobile but I think Dizzy's thing about how he had been hard defending Seth because he wanted him to spew his partners is mildly villagery for him to come up with given that as Mafia he would have had TMI that Seth was in fact a villager and didn't actually have partners

[Arete]

...this is pretty tinfoily but Alison basically rolling over makes sense from a wolf in the specific world where she's a Goon and one of the other wagons in contention (which I guess is just Dya at this point) is a PR

not something I'd base a vote off of but could explain her behavior?

thinking about it 'why would Alison just give up as x alignment' is sort of a meh argument in both directions people are making it unless she has alignment-polarized motivation, like regardless of her alignment giving up and not trying isn't pursuing her win condition

[Vulgard]

Really, the main problem I have here is that Dya's only real legacy is "kill Alison" while Alison's legacy is a blank void. Neither is playing like they have a long-term plan (which is making me think they are not W/W) and I have no idea how to interpret that. If they are both villagers, then this entire day has been a mess, and everybody's apparent indifference to these two being the main wagons bothers me.

I would like everyone who can to tell me why they are so confident there is a wolf in this pair, other than "this has to be resolved." I'm not saying it's not a valid argument (especially now that the vig is dead) but I want to hear something other than that.

[Vulgard]

W/W at the very least doesn't make sense to me, because neither one of Alison/dya is going to make it deep even WITH the pelt. Their play outside of this theater has been far from stellar. It's very likely they just get flipped tomorrow regardless of the flip because "bussing lol." It's not a good play given how they handled it and I'd expect them to abandon it by now or do something else. It's getting them both killed at this rate.

I could buy V/W but the threadstate really concerns me. I might be a bit paranoid after the Gavial flip and Amy being a PR. At the same time, though, I'm surprised no one else seems paranoid.

Let it rand lol.

[sunbae]

I've read through Dyslexicon's ISO and have a few small concerns which I'd like to clear up before settling on a conclusion.

1. Dyslexicon spent a bit of time expressing suspicion on Bronana for thinking their push on KZA was weak yet wanting some credit for KZA being a wolf. The biggest hangup from Dyslexicon's point of view seems to be that Bronana called a series of KZA's posts a "sequence" when the posts were pages apart. My concerns on this are twofold: a.) Expecting someone to "do due diligence" on someone that posted 10 times when skimming their iso and seeing the 3 posts in a row being very different while also dismissing the answer of "it was 3 posts in a row in an iso" is a bit unreasonable to me and b.) I'm confused why I did not suffer the same type of heat for my entrance post today. After all, Bronana certainly said more about KZA than I did so I find it mildly concerning (read: opportunistic to find a reason to push bronana instead of finding that specific thing to be a wolf thing).

2. There's a few posts in short order where Dyslexicon answers a "who you shooting if you have a gun" post with "Alison! If town, Bronana. If scum, Amy." while also saying "I could rather vote Amy right now than you (Alison)" a few posts later. Which seems kinda of concerning as it sounds like AmyScum is dependent on AlisonScum from Dyslexicon's point of view? Feel like if he's talking to Alison about not voting her he should be saying Bronana?

3. In the long list of individual reads, Dyslexicon says this about Vulgard: " Such analysis wow. If others think Vulgard is town, I'm ok with sleeping this. I did have a probably dumb tinfoil of Dya/Vulgard from two specific posts where Vulgard probably just misspoke to/about Dya. This will later turn out correct, but I will forget it. Jk jk. Probably town then." but when making a list Vulgard is second highest only behind Marl (for the derp). For someone as talented as Dyslexicon's posts make them seem to me, their best reads being a derp and someone they have a tinfoil on wolf just seems, not right?

Now, these things are just mild concerns overall and things I'm hoping to get cleared up because overall I thought the general approach and stream of consciousness posts that popped up were quite villagery (plus hally had as villager and they seem to know each other well). But you know, due diligence and all (plus hey, they wanted someone to actually read their posts as a whole!)

[Chloe]

dizzy's treatment of seth is a big ol' whatze fuck but so incredibly unnecessary and against the grain as a wolf that i feel it's villagery

For the last time. My treatment of Gavial was that I thought it was likely he was mafia, and I wanted him to spew the fuck out of his teammates. I have just finished a game where us two were the mafia team, and he death tunnelled me for no reason from the get go, and it looked very janky, so if he was mafia I wanted to give him ample opportunity to get messy in the thread and create more stuff around him.

I've explained this a few times now. I don't really see what's so crazy about it.

@Chloe I just realised you probably haven't read my explanations for this, so fair comment on your end. I just got annoyed because I feel like I've explained this a lot. And it's like people are asking "Why would scum do this" and come up with "No compute", but they don't ask "Why would town do this" and then take into account the actual reason why. (Or at least one of the reasons, other being I just wanted to create [stuff])

Okay, thank you! And apologies
your annoyance feels villagery dont mind me

wait what the fuck do my remaining posts carry over to tomorrow?

i've never played with something like that

this is amazing

they dont you get 100 each day which is why my cap for today is like 180 something

ohhhhhhhhhhhhhh
okay gotcha im an idiot who read something wrong ty

I'm not sure why amy and dya have to be aligned with each other at all

because alison is omgusing

I am yes.

I did not put Amy and you into a team together, I just said you two were my suspects.

I think in this specific state my OMGUSes are a lot more likely to be correct than usual so I would appreciate if people didn't brush it off as "oh she's just OMGUSing".

this is a v strange string of posts
it just doesnt feel genuine?

I actually got the opposite impression of these? I agreed with arete earlier that the whole "yeah im OMGUSing, but my OMGUSing is RIGHT" is kinda villagery

i think alison and dya do have some potential as partners just because of the way they've been treating each other
it feels like dya and soah in reflections a bit

i disagree - i dont think the two have much partner equity
also wasnt dya like.. hard defending soah in reflections? i thought they were doing the opposite of what theyre doing here lol

Chloe, what do you find villagery from alison? that she seemingly has no agenda? And while I bus as a wolf, I never bus like this

Some very base-level things, like the fact that I don't understand what the hell she's doing here if she's a wolf. I don't get why she would put herself in such a weirdass position with her Gavial defense, why it feels like there's zero indication of agenda from her, and theres no direction at all. Like.. she's not doing jack shit to try to get other people to go over before she does. I agree with c4's assessment at SoD (and i find it kinda odd that its not really being brought up). I honestly believe that she wouldn't have acted how she did and faked not knowing when EoD is - and even if she *did* she would either do a last-second PR claim to shuttle votes elsewhere, or actually attempt to get someone else wagoned with more than a 'voting here for self pres. bye'

I don't hard townread her by any means, but I do think shes >rand V

And admittedly the fact that people are now tying me in with her for ??? reasons makes my brain do a big middle finger and i want to be right for the sweet 'i told you so'

Like
What the fuck ever, she probably dies no matter what because shes contributing legit nothing and not defending herself
But I don't think shes a hit

I don't think dya is a wolf. it's possible I'm wrong of course, I'll deservedly eat shit if I am, but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ I think they're just town and they have also been on Alison's case all game who is also the person I want to kill. I have not seen any compelling reason to think Alison is a villa, she is putting surprisingly little effort in to solve the game.

it's odd, I would have expected the votes to shift to Alison after Amy's claim, but dya is now in the lead by 3 votes, and one of the alison voters is visor who has been one of the hardest dya pushers this game. dark forces etc

I kinda think Chloe is just a wolf regardless of whether there are 0, 1, or 2 wolves in alison/dya. this one's harder to explain and I'll need to go look back at stuff to flesh it out more / check myself. tangy has been an obvious villager for me every game I've played with her, and this time she just wasn't and the progression on kza also looks bad. I agree to some extent with visor's take on Chloe's posts, a lot of repetition and catch up walls that seem like busy work I'm sure she is capable of posting as mafia. I can't put my finger quite on it but their reads are developing in this weird way that seems more like a hyper aware reaction to the game state than a natural development .

in any case most everyone wants to see Alison/dya resolved before they'll entertain Chloe, and I think I also want to see that resolved first too but I wanted to put this out there. not sure who the third wolf is (for some reason I want to say Sunbae? meh) need some time to figure out that one and it's putting the cart before the horse regardless.

Are we reading the same game?
I honestly am getting to the point where it feels like you're doing whatever you can to make sure people don't lock me in as a villager. Your treatment of me doesn't feel like you're truly trying to figure me out.
I'm not doing 'busywork.' I'm providing what thoughts I have with what information I have and trying to get a better understanding of what the hell is happening in this game. I'm finally caught up with all the Day 1 events so i feel more comfortable giving thoughts without them being backed-up by my interpretation of things that happened - based on what other people have been saying.

[Marluxion]

also this game doesn't have maj until lylo so there's no point to still be chilling in unvote, fyi Sunbae/marl/vulgard

i'm just not sure who i want to end on
the wagon composition for dya looks better but i think alison has been scummier
idk

[sunbae]

I've read through Marl's ISO and - entirely ignoring the derp - I think he's prooooobably a villager? Looking at it all together I feel like it dances around quite a bit, has a good mix of focused thoughts and random ideas thrown out there, a few examples of that villagery panic that sets in when you're kinda stuck in a game while not overly doing it and just continuing to post thoughts anyways, a couple posts specifically that just *sound town* (bully lunch money!, seth/vulgard w/w, cycles, and thats ignoring the reaction to the derp cause ive been in that spot as a wolf and not wanted to get cleared for silly things but still the reaction did sound good). I also think the way Marl was kinda shocked at Arete calling it seths town meta was done in a way that a wolf wouldn't do. This is followed up by some day 2 concerns about Arete pocketing Vulgard that seemed villagery too.

Essentially, Marl is kinda bouncing around a lot, not too stilted or anything while still expressing concern/confusion well. I just think it's a very likely villager for good reasons and not for derp reasons.

I'd also really, really like marl to take some time and talk to me about Arete because I feel like that's my least confident villa read right now and it's for probably terrible reasons

[Marluxion]

I'm like
really really tired of being the guy who adamantly says someone is village and then they flip wolf and then i look like an idiot

and that's kinda the vibe i feel like it's gonna be when i say i think dyachei is town

[Marluxion]

I've read through Marl's ISO and - entirely ignoring the derp - I think he's prooooobably a villager? Looking at it all together I feel like it dances around quite a bit, has a good mix of focused thoughts and random ideas thrown out there, a few examples of that villagery panic that sets in when you're kinda stuck in a game while not overly doing it and just continuing to post thoughts anyways, a couple posts specifically that just *sound town* (bully lunch money!, seth/vulgard w/w, cycles, and thats ignoring the reaction to the derp cause ive been in that spot as a wolf and not wanted to get cleared for silly things but still the reaction did sound good). I also think the way Marl was kinda shocked at Arete calling it seths town meta was done in a way that a wolf wouldn't do. This is followed up by some day 2 concerns about Arete pocketing Vulgard that seemed villagery too.

Essentially, Marl is kinda bouncing around a lot, not too stilted or anything while still expressing concern/confusion well. I just think it's a very likely villager for good reasons and not for derp reasons.

I'd also really, really like marl to take some time and talk to me about Arete because I feel like that's my least confident villa read right now and it's for probably terrible reasons

i still haven't found arete towny at all and it felt like they were posturing around seth d1 knowing he was a villager even though (imo) all of the meta pointed to him being a wolf

the sole reason i'm not pressing them harder is because vulgard is confident they are town and i think vulgard is town and usually the two are good at catching each other if one of them is wolfing

it's possible that both are wolfing but i sincerely doubt it

[Chloe]

[Chloe]

im becoming marl

im doubling down out of ego

[Vulgard]

For what it's worth, last game on the Syndicate where I played with Arete I found Arete town on day 1 and they were indeed town despite barely posting and not really being townread by anyone else. I still feel decently comfortable calling them town given the way they've played until now.

[sunbae]

Vulgard, can you give me the explain it like I'm 5 breakdown of Arete town? My reason for town reading Arete is for the explanation to the big wall defending you eod1 being to protect you from getting killed later in the game and the discord/forum response to Dyslexicon's amy wolfchat post, but I recognize those aren't the best reasons so it'd be nice to have more concrete things.

[c4e5g3d5]

I hear what you guys are saying about Alison antispewing, and I get it, but also she's town.

I would like everyone who can to tell me why they are so confident there is a wolf in this pair, other than "this has to be resolved." I'm not saying it's not a valid argument (especially now that the vig is dead) but I want to hear something other than that.

There's a wolf in the pair because dya's a wolf. It's really not that deep.

[Marluxion]

I'm probably not going to vote
If Dyachei is a wolf i'll be glad i didn't and if dyachei is town, you'd best be ready for a fucking storm because tomorrow you're getting ego mode marl who is never going to let you hear the end of it

[sunbae]

I'm probably not going to vote
If Dyachei is a wolf i'll be glad i didn't and if dyachei is town, you'd best be ready for a fucking storm because tomorrow you're getting ego mode marl who is never going to let you hear the end of it

How confident are you in Vulgard town (given you're basing your Arete read on Vulgard's town read of Arete)

[Marluxion]

I'm probably not going to vote
If Dyachei is a wolf i'll be glad i didn't and if dyachei is town, you'd best be ready for a fucking storm because tomorrow you're getting ego mode marl who is never going to let you hear the end of it

How confident are you in Vulgard town (given you're basing your Arete read on Vulgard's town read of Arete)

if rand is like 75%, probably close to 85%
he is above rand but i'm not locking it
there are parts of his analysis that stick out as ???? to me but i dont want to be the tinfoil hat man for the 800th time in a row tinfoiling obvious town
i'll know whether he's town or not tonight

[bronana]

Spoiler: show

Both Alison and dya have done things I townread them for before, and now they are both top wagons.

People have been giving me arguments why dya is mafia. Okay.

People have been giving me arguments why Alison is mafia. Okay.

I have been wrong on Gavial and on Amy (given the lack of CC). Okay.

But I think these wagons are bad. I don't see why mafia Alison would treat Gavial like this despite knowing he would be likely to flip from how day 1 played out. She should have awareness of her own TMI as a wolf and approach accordingly.

I don't see why mafia Dya would push on Alison in the snappy way that they did. It's possible they were doing w/w theater, but I honestly struggle to see it. If they were w/w, they wouldn't play d2 like they have. They are kinda self-pressing on each other, dya is calling Alison a wolf, Alison isn't... really... calling dya a wolf back? Or maybe I missed it. If they were partners doing theater and becoming the top two wagons on day 2, I think they would continue this theater throughout the day so one would be spewed clear. Or, I don't know, do SOMETHING. It feels like both are ready to get flipped since neither is really fighting the votes on them, and it's puzzling play coming from wolves.

Why is it not puzzling play coming from villagers? ...It is. It still is. That's why I haven't been like "these are V/V wagons guaranteed, let's CFD." But this still feels wrong to me. Marl calling Alison hyperwolfy feels wrong to me. I know he has experience with her, but I do too, and we have an entirely different perspective. That's just one thing that's seemed off to me about these last ~12 hours.

My heart tells me to CFD, but I'm not sure where to go with it, and it could have disastrous results. Like hitting another PR. And after the Gavial read backfired on me for the first time ever (and after I pushed someone who is now almost certainly tracker!Amy - town PR!Amy), I'm not sure I have a great handle on this game.

I've been trying to lay low for the past few hours and read what other people were thinking. I've been trying to discuss with the players pushing for either Alison or Dya, and I feel an overwhelming level of indifference for some reason. This isn't as clear-cut to me as it seems to be to everyone else.

I'm still going to vote for one of them at EoD if I have to, just so that my vote matters, but the reason I'm not voting anyone right now is because I'm still trying to evaluate the gamestate.

lets say you get your cfd on me (i seem to be your only real suspect apparently afaict), i flip town. how does this affect the rest of your reads? (if you want to also answer the converse of cfding me and i flip mafia, feel free but know it's a dreamland )

[Vulgard]

Vulgard, can you give me the explain it like I'm 5 breakdown of Arete town? My reason for town reading Arete is for the explanation to the big wall defending you eod1 being to protect you from getting killed later in the game and the discord/forum response to Dyslexicon's amy wolfchat post, but I recognize those aren't the best reasons so it'd be nice to have more concrete things.

arete, what’s your read on gavial?

based on what I've seen in the posts I've read (which, again, is not all the posts that exist) I think he's probably a wolf, he's not playing like town!Seth like at all, from what I've seen he's not even making an attempt at pushing any of his scumreads? which is one of the big things I expect from town!Seth

Alison had a post where she said that he plays to his wolf meta half the time as town which I don't think is true, I have actually seen it happen by which I mean 'I replaced in for him in a game where he was the uncontested top wagon for doing that' but I think it's more like ten percent of his town games than half of them? which is a number I completely made up but is probably the right ballpark

also I might be misremembering the details but someone had a post that was like 'why even bother to vote him out if he's a wolf, wolves are just going to bus him for towncred which doesn't help us' (this is a really misrepresentative paraphrase) and I think that's also dumb, wolves dying is always good and the fewer wolves there are the stronger the tracker is (and the fewer wolves need to die to turn the jailkeeper into a cop) (also he could be a wolf PR)

like if we're worried that wolves will just bus him we can just not give people towncred for being on his wagon if he flips scum? duh?


I'm not voting him yet because in the offchance he's not I don't want him to randomly tunnel me for Seth reasons when he gets back, getting tunnelled by Seth for sucky reasons is Not Fun, if he's still being wolfy by EoD then I can just vote him then and my vote will do exactly as much to kill him as it would if I voted now

The last part of this post looks like a v!Arete perspective.

...still catching up but at some point within the past ?few minutes? Gavial seems to have silently voted me on the poll, and not in the thread, despite literally never mentioning me at any point previously

which is baffling and kind of makes me think that he's badly attempting to spew me as his partner? or something?

This entire post looks like a v!Arete perspective, too. We both have experience with Gavial and wolf!Arete wouldn't handle Gavial like this.

I still think Gavial's a wolf after reading his posts 4 pages ago. They lack the spark of confidence his towngame displays. He sounds too deflated.

Lots of people are making Gavial preflips, though. Let's not. I'm a competent Gavial reader and I think he's mafia but preflips are always bad unless there's a redcheck. It's THEORETICALLY possible he's playing in his wolfmeta as town for whatever reason. ...Yeah, no. But still.

I have a hot take that Seth probably doesn't randomly make the spectator reads and insist that it's a super funny joke as wolf

he takes the game ... seriously? ... as wolf, which to be clear is not the same thing as 'being good at it' or 'not outing his entire team with spew' or 'not pinging the lost wolf with a poem that spells out WE R IN TOWNCORE with the first letter of every line as an elaborate form of signalling, without consulting his teammates' but he has a conception of himself as a good scum player (specifically thinking of an FoL wolfgame, Wild West, where he was super insistent on trying to bus Moleland, his partner, on the grounds that he was a better wolf than Moleland (which is not true)) and I don't think his self-conception of himself as a good scum player is consistent with making that sort of joke

and if it were just actual lolcatting I don't think he would deny that he's lolcatting

I townread the thought process but I disagree with the conclusion. Gavial's still seemed tonally deflated to me.

I'm happy to give him until the end of day to towntell, in my experience when he's V he can usually be obviously in his town range by the end of the day

That part's fair.

Read Arete's posts on page 18 and I'm confident calling them town. Don't misyeet them.

I feel like my Arete read just above is messier than the others, because I'm trying to rationalize thinking they are a villager when really I just feel it in my soul.

Arete:

- Initially calls Gavial "probably just a wolf" but isn't sure. Provides meta on Gavial.
- Reiterates that Gavial is still wolfy, but isn't 100% sure about it and lists "don't want to be tunneled back by him if he's town" as one of the reasons for this.
- Doesn't like Alison's stance on Gavial. I don't really understand the reasoning why but I read it as genuine consideration.
- Claims that they think Gavial might be badly attempting to spew them as their partner. I think this is very unlikely to come from a wolf, Arete or not, since it's referring to someone they know is a villager in that world. I... doubt a wolf would come up with "they are trying to spew me as their partner?" Even if you claim a wolf would do this to absolve themselves from blame for the yeet, most of the thread was wolfreading Gavial, so that doesn't really work in context.
- Notices that Gavial is getting townier but is apprehensive about it for "where do we go from here" reasons. Notably, does not harddefend Gavial, but still says this.
- Claims that Gavial wouldn't make spectator reads as a wolf. Arete continues to go out of their way to defend Gavial, but doesn't strongarm it. I'm torn whether mafiaRete would do this for towncred. It's a fairly consistent stance they have throughout their ISO, but they didn't really try very hard to prevent the misyeet from happening.
- Wants to continue giving Gavial time so he can become obvtown if he's town.
- Continually claims they think Gavial is >rand town but aren't going to fight the yeet. I think, much like in the case of Alison, it benefits wolf!Arete more to take one of two stances here: either just kill Gavial or bus KZA. They do talk about KZA briefly, calling him >rand wolf and likening his play to the "uninspired d1 by t0an and/or volume" meme which I think is 100% within their scumrange to do.

This doesn't prove to me they aren't partnered. I think wolf!Arete might briefly hedge on Gavial because they can't decide on how to treat Gavial, whether correctly defending him is a better approach than pushing the misyeet through. What I DON'T think wolf!Arete does is openly hedge on Gavial's alignment for the entire day, kinda slightly calling him town but never strongly enough to shift the yeet away. Even taking into consideration the fact KZA was a wolf PR and a counterwagon option, I think wolf!Arete's self-awareness wouldn't let them hedge on the misyeet in the making in all of their posts. They'd just commit to something.

They explain their standpoint on d2, claiming that misyeeting Gavial didn't seem like such a bad thing to them (lol), that they weren't too confident because of other people's confidence about Gavial being mafia, and that if Gavial was mafia then committing to a hard defense would make Arete look partnered with him. The first would be a really bold claim from mafia!Arete and I don't think they have the guts for it. The second is something I can't quite envision mafia!Arete doing because mafia!Arete is more than ready to push some agenda. While mafia!Arete could lie about this, I think their overall attitude points toward them being just town. And the third reason is something I don't want to delve into.

TL;DR Based on the treatment of Gavial I'm still leaning Arete town, because I think it would be unusual for their wolfplay to approach Gavial like they did, as mafia.

[Arete]

I've read through Marl's ISO and - entirely ignoring the derp - I think he's prooooobably a villager? Looking at it all together I feel like it dances around quite a bit, has a good mix of focused thoughts and random ideas thrown out there, a few examples of that villagery panic that sets in when you're kinda stuck in a game while not overly doing it and just continuing to post thoughts anyways, a couple posts specifically that just *sound town* (bully lunch money!, seth/vulgard w/w, cycles, and thats ignoring the reaction to the derp cause ive been in that spot as a wolf and not wanted to get cleared for silly things but still the reaction did sound good). I also think the way Marl was kinda shocked at Arete calling it seths town meta was done in a way that a wolf wouldn't do. This is followed up by some day 2 concerns about Arete pocketing Vulgard that seemed villagery too.

Essentially, Marl is kinda bouncing around a lot, not too stilted or anything while still expressing concern/confusion well. I just think it's a very likely villager for good reasons and not for derp reasons.

I'd also really, really like marl to take some time and talk to me about Arete because I feel like that's my least confident villa read right now and it's for probably terrible reasons

i still haven't found arete towny at all and it felt like they were posturing around seth d1 knowing he was a villager even though (imo) all of the meta pointed to him being a wolf

the sole reason i'm not pressing them harder is because vulgard is confident they are town and i think vulgard is town and usually the two are good at catching each other if one of them is wolfing

it's possible that both are wolfing but i sincerely doubt it

[Marluxion]

I've read through Marl's ISO and - entirely ignoring the derp - I think he's prooooobably a villager? Looking at it all together I feel like it dances around quite a bit, has a good mix of focused thoughts and random ideas thrown out there, a few examples of that villagery panic that sets in when you're kinda stuck in a game while not overly doing it and just continuing to post thoughts anyways, a couple posts specifically that just *sound town* (bully lunch money!, seth/vulgard w/w, cycles, and thats ignoring the reaction to the derp cause ive been in that spot as a wolf and not wanted to get cleared for silly things but still the reaction did sound good). I also think the way Marl was kinda shocked at Arete calling it seths town meta was done in a way that a wolf wouldn't do. This is followed up by some day 2 concerns about Arete pocketing Vulgard that seemed villagery too.

Essentially, Marl is kinda bouncing around a lot, not too stilted or anything while still expressing concern/confusion well. I just think it's a very likely villager for good reasons and not for derp reasons.

I'd also really, really like marl to take some time and talk to me about Arete because I feel like that's my least confident villa read right now and it's for probably terrible reasons

i still haven't found arete towny at all and it felt like they were posturing around seth d1 knowing he was a villager even though (imo) all of the meta pointed to him being a wolf

the sole reason i'm not pressing them harder is because vulgard is confident they are town and i think vulgard is town and usually the two are good at catching each other if one of them is wolfing

it's possible that both are wolfing but i sincerely doubt it

it's not really even a read
what you described from his town meta didn't even really fit at all
it's like you knew he was town and tried to just generalize what it was like to see him as town
none of his posts were painful to read unless you had tmi when reading them

[Vulgard]

I'm probably not going to vote
If Dyachei is a wolf i'll be glad i didn't and if dyachei is town, you'd best be ready for a fucking storm because tomorrow you're getting ego mode marl who is never going to let you hear the end of it

How confident are you in Vulgard town (given you're basing your Arete read on Vulgard's town read of Arete)

if rand is like 75%, probably close to 85%
he is above rand but i'm not locking it
there are parts of his analysis that stick out as ???? to me but i dont want to be the tinfoil hat man for the 800th time in a row tinfoiling obvious town
i'll know whether he's town or not tonight

Thing is, we can work through these parts if you're town, but people haven't engaged with me for the last ~50 posts I wrote, and it makes me feel deflated. I don't want to strongarm the thread, given I was wrong on Gavial and later Amy, but I also want my thoughts to be heard.

Spoiler: show

Both Alison and dya have done things I townread them for before, and now they are both top wagons.

People have been giving me arguments why dya is mafia. Okay.

People have been giving me arguments why Alison is mafia. Okay.

I have been wrong on Gavial and on Amy (given the lack of CC). Okay.

But I think these wagons are bad. I don't see why mafia Alison would treat Gavial like this despite knowing he would be likely to flip from how day 1 played out. She should have awareness of her own TMI as a wolf and approach accordingly.

I don't see why mafia Dya would push on Alison in the snappy way that they did. It's possible they were doing w/w theater, but I honestly struggle to see it. If they were w/w, they wouldn't play d2 like they have. They are kinda self-pressing on each other, dya is calling Alison a wolf, Alison isn't... really... calling dya a wolf back? Or maybe I missed it. If they were partners doing theater and becoming the top two wagons on day 2, I think they would continue this theater throughout the day so one would be spewed clear. Or, I don't know, do SOMETHING. It feels like both are ready to get flipped since neither is really fighting the votes on them, and it's puzzling play coming from wolves.

Why is it not puzzling play coming from villagers? ...It is. It still is. That's why I haven't been like "these are V/V wagons guaranteed, let's CFD." But this still feels wrong to me. Marl calling Alison hyperwolfy feels wrong to me. I know he has experience with her, but I do too, and we have an entirely different perspective. That's just one thing that's seemed off to me about these last ~12 hours.

My heart tells me to CFD, but I'm not sure where to go with it, and it could have disastrous results. Like hitting another PR. And after the Gavial read backfired on me for the first time ever (and after I pushed someone who is now almost certainly tracker!Amy - town PR!Amy), I'm not sure I have a great handle on this game.

I've been trying to lay low for the past few hours and read what other people were thinking. I've been trying to discuss with the players pushing for either Alison or Dya, and I feel an overwhelming level of indifference for some reason. This isn't as clear-cut to me as it seems to be to everyone else.

I'm still going to vote for one of them at EoD if I have to, just so that my vote matters, but the reason I'm not voting anyone right now is because I'm still trying to evaluate the gamestate.

lets say you get your cfd on me (i seem to be your only real suspect apparently afaict), i flip town. how does this affect the rest of your reads? (if you want to also answer the converse of cfding me and i flip mafia, feel free but know it's a dreamland )

I probably stop going against consensus and just sheep people I think are town because clearly I have terrible reads this game.

As for more specifics, I'd have to preflip you as town and run comparisons which I have neither the time nor the desire to do. The only reason I'm going through worlds re: Dya/Alison is that they've been wagons since forever and one has continually pushed on the other.

[dyachei]

Villa to wolf list
Amy
Tangy/chloe
Vulgard
visor
Sunbae
nutella
bronana
spf
marl
Dizzy
Arete
C4
Alison

[Vulgard]

This is the dumbest read ever but Arete using a meme as their response here is >>>>>>>>>>rand V coming from Arete.

[sunbae]

Dya, can you chat to me about Chloe? I'm trying to figure out how to iso them as a sub and could use more takes there.

[sunbae]

Thanks Vulgard re: Arete. I think I feel pretty fine about that one still then.

Can you chat to me about the Dyslexicon stuff I mentioned a few posts above? You might have better insight to whether those are actual issues or just no big deal

[bronana]

c4's play this phase is just weird imo, he'll occasionally pop in to state these super confident reads like "X is town, Y is a wolf, you're all bad and dumb" then peaces out again

it's like he is expressing a ton of confidence but is not making much of an impact pushing those confident reads?

i also dont get his alison read even if she is villa

[Arete]

I've read through Marl's ISO and - entirely ignoring the derp - I think he's prooooobably a villager? Looking at it all together I feel like it dances around quite a bit, has a good mix of focused thoughts and random ideas thrown out there, a few examples of that villagery panic that sets in when you're kinda stuck in a game while not overly doing it and just continuing to post thoughts anyways, a couple posts specifically that just *sound town* (bully lunch money!, seth/vulgard w/w, cycles, and thats ignoring the reaction to the derp cause ive been in that spot as a wolf and not wanted to get cleared for silly things but still the reaction did sound good). I also think the way Marl was kinda shocked at Arete calling it seths town meta was done in a way that a wolf wouldn't do. This is followed up by some day 2 concerns about Arete pocketing Vulgard that seemed villagery too.

Essentially, Marl is kinda bouncing around a lot, not too stilted or anything while still expressing concern/confusion well. I just think it's a very likely villager for good reasons and not for derp reasons.

I'd also really, really like marl to take some time and talk to me about Arete because I feel like that's my least confident villa read right now and it's for probably terrible reasons

i still haven't found arete towny at all and it felt like they were posturing around seth d1 knowing he was a villager even though (imo) all of the meta pointed to him being a wolf

the sole reason i'm not pressing them harder is because vulgard is confident they are town and i think vulgard is town and usually the two are good at catching each other if one of them is wolfing

it's possible that both are wolfing but i sincerely doubt it

it's not really even a read
what you described from his town meta didn't even really fit at all
it's like you knew he was town and tried to just generalize what it was like to see him as town
none of his posts were painful to read unless you had tmi when reading them

reread his posts from around when I started calling him town and mentally replace all mentions of me with "Marl"

[bronana]

sunbae, you have a gun with 3 bullets. who are you shooting?

feel free to get as "if x, then y" with it as you like

anyone else is free to answer this as well

Alison!

If town - Bronana!
If scum - Amy?

I tried going further, but I can't.

Shouldnt you be shooting amy if im town?

I would prolly shoot amy, then dya, then dizzy

Dizzy my read on you is based on the fact that you're reading me badly + the Hally kill + your D1 EOD.

if you see this, can you elaborate on why the hally kill implicates dizzy?

[nutella]

I'm extremely torn rn

I think every time dya comes into the thread they are extremely selective about what they respond to/talk about, and I feel like I've never seen any indication that they're solving from an uninformed perspective. Their approach to me is omgus/discredity and they're hesitant to call me even "a light v lean" while only basing it on my interactions with them and never acknowledging anything else I've done that is town indicative, claiming I haven't been "bouncing around" when I feel like that's all I've been doing all game. Every time they post I feel reinforced in my belief that they're not coming at the game with a desire to solve anything, they're mainly defending themself and pushing alison like a broken record and I'm not seeing anything that suggests they're approaching reads on anyone else with a goal of actually solving. My main caveat is that their dedication to the alison scumread *is* something I've seen them do as town.

It seems like Alison has given up. She appeared again once to say she townread marl and that he was referencing a past game inaccurately and that's IT. She is more guilty of the selective/limited posting problem than dya. She certainly gives off the impression of simply being in antispew. I'm even considering zack's concerns about chloe in relation to alison here and I'll be upset if chloe has fooled me but I may have to keep a closer eye there (on one hand "busywork" is a thing, on the other hand i've very much vibed with the reads shes given in those summaries). But I do even agree with chloe/c4/vulgard on certain micro reasons to think Alison is uninformed. Those arguments have all seemed logically sound to me and I don't know what to do with the fact that as either alignment she is, to use her words, griefing the game.

So fuck me I just want one of these flips and I'm not going to push super hard for or against either wagon. The w/w tinfoil theories are kinda swimming around now and I can't help but share Arete's concern that Alison rolling over and dying could be indicative of a goon bus. I feel like if that was the wolves' strategy here it's just gone wrong and they've stuck to it anyway, but on the other hand I don't know that I could bring myself to not clear dya if they're right on alison just like out of respect. And instead I'd first want to scrutinize Alison's defenders, c4/vulgard/chloe (c4 feels worst of those three to me on a general level) even if I thought their points do make sense.

Aaaaa okay typing this has convinced me to [VOTE: alison] aubergine

Dya is at least playing

[dyachei]

Dya, can you chat to me about Chloe? I'm trying to figure out how to iso them as a sub and could use more takes there.

I'm reading off a tangy's tone rn. I think the KZA stuff is twtbaw

[Vulgard]

I've read through Dyslexicon's ISO and have a few small concerns which I'd like to clear up before settling on a conclusion.

1. Dyslexicon spent a bit of time expressing suspicion on Bronana for thinking their push on KZA was weak yet wanting some credit for KZA being a wolf. The biggest hangup from Dyslexicon's point of view seems to be that Bronana called a series of KZA's posts a "sequence" when the posts were pages apart. My concerns on this are twofold: a.) Expecting someone to "do due diligence" on someone that posted 10 times when skimming their iso and seeing the 3 posts in a row being very different while also dismissing the answer of "it was 3 posts in a row in an iso" is a bit unreasonable to me and b.) I'm confused why I did not suffer the same type of heat for my entrance post today. After all, Bronana certainly said more about KZA than I did so I find it mildly concerning (read: opportunistic to find a reason to push bronana instead of finding that specific thing to be a wolf thing).

2. There's a few posts in short order where Dyslexicon answers a "who you shooting if you have a gun" post with "Alison! If town, Bronana. If scum, Amy." while also saying "I could rather vote Amy right now than you (Alison)" a few posts later. Which seems kinda of concerning as it sounds like AmyScum is dependent on AlisonScum from Dyslexicon's point of view? Feel like if he's talking to Alison about not voting her he should be saying Bronana?

3. In the long list of individual reads, Dyslexicon says this about Vulgard: " Such analysis wow. If others think Vulgard is town, I'm ok with sleeping this. I did have a probably dumb tinfoil of Dya/Vulgard from two specific posts where Vulgard probably just misspoke to/about Dya. This will later turn out correct, but I will forget it. Jk jk. Probably town then." but when making a list Vulgard is second highest only behind Marl (for the derp). For someone as talented as Dyslexicon's posts make them seem to me, their best reads being a derp and someone they have a tinfoil on wolf just seems, not right?

Now, these things are just mild concerns overall and things I'm hoping to get cleared up because overall I thought the general approach and stream of consciousness posts that popped up were quite villagery (plus hally had as villager and they seem to know each other well). But you know, due diligence and all (plus hey, they wanted someone to actually read their posts as a whole!)

1. I see where you're coming from, but these are such minutiae that I find it a bit hard to believe Dizzy would construct such an elaborate point just to express suspicion on someone.
2. I have no idea how they reached that preflipped conclusion to begin with, tbh. I don't know what Dizzy was thinking. The POV makes no sense to me in general.
3. I actually agree on that point. Not sure if it makes Dizzy a wolf but these two reads don't make much sense to be the highest. Dizzy not having stronger ones is - basically what you said.

Overall I think the points you're raising are valid but my read on them is more like "Dizzy's POV makes no sense in these posts" which I lean toward being villagery and not wolfy. We did have KZA whose posts were just abysmal but Dizzy isn't KZA. Funnily enough I have a similar opinion about c4, I also think c4 is a villager but his POV makes no sense to me sometimes. I've already discussed this but nobody seemed interested in engaging with me on this.

[Marluxion]

...still catching up but at some point within the past ?few minutes? Gavial seems to have silently voted me on the poll, and not in the thread, despite literally never mentioning me at any point previously

which is baffling and kind of makes me think that he's badly attempting to spew me as his partner? or something?

I’m Town, so no.
I’m voting you because I know how good you can be.

okay so just to confirm

you're voting me over any of your actual wolfreads for the sole reason that you think I'm a competent wolf

Yes.
And I don’t really have any confident wolf reads.

Like Hally/Vulgard/Arete/Marlu/Tang
Any 4/5 of these players being the complete scum team would be absolutely horrible to go up against.
Don’t think we can win from that.

@Arete
It's like
just these two interactions
i just dont see it

[Vulgard]

I'm extremely torn rn

I think every time dya comes into the thread they are extremely selective about what they respond to/talk about, and I feel like I've never seen any indication that they're solving from an uninformed perspective. Their approach to me is omgus/discredity and they're hesitant to call me even "a light v lean" while only basing it on my interactions with them and never acknowledging anything else I've done that is town indicative, claiming I haven't been "bouncing around" when I feel like that's all I've been doing all game. Every time they post I feel reinforced in my belief that they're not coming at the game with a desire to solve anything, they're mainly defending themself and pushing alison like a broken record and I'm not seeing anything that suggests they're approaching reads on anyone else with a goal of actually solving. My main caveat is that their dedication to the alison scumread *is* something I've seen them do as town.

It seems like Alison has given up. She appeared again once to say she townread marl and that he was referencing a past game inaccurately and that's IT. She is more guilty of the selective/limited posting problem than dya. She certainly gives off the impression of simply being in antispew. I'm even considering zack's concerns about chloe in relation to alison here and I'll be upset if chloe has fooled me but I may have to keep a closer eye there (on one hand "busywork" is a thing, on the other hand i've very much vibed with the reads shes given in those summaries). But I do even agree with chloe/c4/vulgard on certain micro reasons to think Alison is uninformed. Those arguments have all seemed logically sound to me and I don't know what to do with the fact that as either alignment she is, to use her words, griefing the game.

So fuck me I just want one of these flips and I'm not going to push super hard for or against either wagon. The w/w tinfoil theories are kinda swimming around now and I can't help but share Arete's concern that Alison rolling over and dying could be indicative of a goon bus. I feel like if that was the wolves' strategy here it's just gone wrong and they've stuck to it anyway, but on the other hand I don't know that I could bring myself to not clear dya if they're right on alison just like out of respect. And instead I'd first want to scrutinize Alison's defenders, c4/vulgard/chloe (c4 feels worst of those three to me on a general level) even if I thought their points do make sense.

Aaaaa okay typing this has convinced me to [VOTE: alison] aubergine

Dya is at least playing

If Alison's V do you just turbo Dya?

[Vulgard]

Wait I am 10 posts away from postcap.

I'm not going to post much more today outside of important stuff.

[Chloe]

if im pulling another joy_wowee i might implode

[nutella]

Dya, can you chat to me about Chloe? I'm trying to figure out how to iso them as a sub and could use more takes there.

I'm reading off a tangy's tone rn. I think the KZA stuff is twtbaw

this i can agree with i think. i had concerns but that was sort of what i landed on, and chloe has been villagery enough to assuage them

I'm extremely torn rn

I think every time dya comes into the thread they are extremely selective about what they respond to/talk about, and I feel like I've never seen any indication that they're solving from an uninformed perspective. Their approach to me is omgus/discredity and they're hesitant to call me even "a light v lean" while only basing it on my interactions with them and never acknowledging anything else I've done that is town indicative, claiming I haven't been "bouncing around" when I feel like that's all I've been doing all game. Every time they post I feel reinforced in my belief that they're not coming at the game with a desire to solve anything, they're mainly defending themself and pushing alison like a broken record and I'm not seeing anything that suggests they're approaching reads on anyone else with a goal of actually solving. My main caveat is that their dedication to the alison scumread *is* something I've seen them do as town.

It seems like Alison has given up. She appeared again once to say she townread marl and that he was referencing a past game inaccurately and that's IT. She is more guilty of the selective/limited posting problem than dya. She certainly gives off the impression of simply being in antispew. I'm even considering zack's concerns about chloe in relation to alison here and I'll be upset if chloe has fooled me but I may have to keep a closer eye there (on one hand "busywork" is a thing, on the other hand i've very much vibed with the reads shes given in those summaries). But I do even agree with chloe/c4/vulgard on certain micro reasons to think Alison is uninformed. Those arguments have all seemed logically sound to me and I don't know what to do with the fact that as either alignment she is, to use her words, griefing the game.

So fuck me I just want one of these flips and I'm not going to push super hard for or against either wagon. The w/w tinfoil theories are kinda swimming around now and I can't help but share Arete's concern that Alison rolling over and dying could be indicative of a goon bus. I feel like if that was the wolves' strategy here it's just gone wrong and they've stuck to it anyway, but on the other hand I don't know that I could bring myself to not clear dya if they're right on alison just like out of respect. And instead I'd first want to scrutinize Alison's defenders, c4/vulgard/chloe (c4 feels worst of those three to me on a general level) even if I thought their points do make sense.

Aaaaa okay typing this has convinced me to [VOTE: alison] aubergine

Dya is at least playing

If Alison's V do you just turbo Dya?

mrrrr probably lol


honestly i'm feeling better about this choice by the second though. dya is giving some observations at least and there could be non-alignment explanations for the tonal/limited approach stuff i haven't liked from them

[nutella]

honestly dya has such conviction in alison flipping red that they're either just v or it's the stupid fucking bus thing and i dont think it's the stupid fucking bus thing

[nutella]

so yeah actually no

but i think alison flips red atp