The Syndicate

if you want my personal input I'll say that lomo clearing mac for hellbussing because it's out of his range, but he doesn't know my range so he can't be sure on me, is goofy and uninformed enough to be town. I'll also say that I don't see mafia watcher lomo just randomly claiming his role like that d2.

LoMo's posts have been generally uninspiring but they aren't actively scummy. Made also acted like he was just going through the motions and giving up implying that his partner is POE (most likely poisoned, even), and not a deepwolf, which LoMo would probably qualify as.

So that is the level 1 reason to townread LoMo. Not interested in digging deeper than this until I see compelling evidence why I should consider him (ie. why TSP + gnome isn't just the solve).

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 7:04 am One can never be too prepared for the unexpected.

I think the game is over though.

I think the game is 95-99% likely to be mech locked in tsp + gnome. If there's two mafia and gnome doesn't end it then martin is outed as the mafia poison healer who saved gnome so it's still mech locked.

Any scenario where the game is not mech locked would require me to see the flips to understand what the fuck happened so I can solve based on that.

Therefore until I see their flips I am pointlessly spinning my wheels.

The only way gnome can be town is if tony lied. But why would he lie? Out of spite at the town to force them to... misexe a single townie who was in the POE anyway?

Occam's Razor: he is telling the truth, we have the game mech locked and squabbling over how townie LoMo's posts are is silly.

I will do zero solving until I see tony and gnome flip

I am going after the claimed poisoner and the person who has no good explanation for surviving a poison before I think about lost monkey or allcrab.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 5:22 am writes down /mafia desperado/ for philo mafia 2

a mafia that is forced to shoot another mafia member sounds like an innovative idea for philosophers mafia. You're really breaking new ground here

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 5:19 am

Alison wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 5:17 am

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 5:16 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 4:26 am All y'all: who would you include in your POE pool of exactly three mafia suspects?

Gnome, Alison and Martin probably. But I still think LoMo/Allcrab have some equity. Also Sloonei isn't clear. So essentially everyone but you big guy.

sloonei is clear.

hes not tho

how did orangecrush die?

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 5:16 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 4:26 am All y'all: who would you include in your POE pool of exactly three mafia suspects?

Gnome, Alison and Martin probably. But I still think LoMo/Allcrab have some equity. Also Sloonei isn't clear. So essentially everyone but you big guy.

sloonei is clear.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 5:14 am

Alison wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 4:21 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 4:20 am what's GTO

game theoretically optimal

lol jesus

what?

Speaking of which, with TSP's claim we now know that there are duplicate town roles (since there is no longer space for both allcrab/lomo and martin to be scum) which makes the watcher/poison healer "same claim" scandals less of an issue.

Maybe the anti claim mechanics is just duplicate poison healer/watcher, scum lover, etc.

Where are the anti claim mechanics that were advertised?

Maybe nutella was a soupkiller and that's what her role meant?

Watch tsp flip town poisoner.

Alison wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 5:04 am If the last mafia is Gnome and Mac is pure let's all agree to ahistorically portray this game as an example of JJJ-Mac-Sloonei-Alison power town crew being left alive and killing all the mafia with only one misexe in 7 days and ignore all the silly infighting we did.

Also just to be clear this is a joke, everyone in the game played well and contributed significantly to a town win if this is the world, often in irreplaceable ways

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 5:05 am do it in 6 do it in 6 do it in 6

7 is more impressive because if presented out of context it looks like you had more consecutive mafia exes

If the last mafia is Gnome and Mac is pure let's all agree to ahistorically portray this game as an example of JJJ-Mac-Sloonei-Alison power town crew being left alive and killing all the mafia with only one misexe in 7 days and ignore all the silly infighting we did.

Well, pseudo red checked by someone who could easily be lying but hey, that description applies to hawkataine and we exed her anyways

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 5:00 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 4:26 am All y'all: who would you include in your POE pool of exactly three mafia suspects?

Mac -> Gnome -> LoMo

I haven't really checked on LoMo recently nor compared him to Allcrab yet.

Mac & Gnome could be switched if I'm convinced it's possible and not implausible that there's two town in Mac/Alison. I just feel a bit surprised that both of them are alive up to this point along with JJJ and Sloonei.

Gnome got red checked

It's hard not to envision Gnome and Mac ending it tbqh

Realistically I'd go Gnome (red checked) -> Mac (next most sus) always, and then if game isn't ended do a full re-eval including of Martin.

I had this crazy idea for a new type of ad in the future. This is when holographic ads are a thing. So the ad starts by projecting silhouettes of humans doing stuff like running or stretching or crouching. You go to that location and adopt that pose. Then the hologram fires to life around you and you're now an actor in the ad.

For example: a burger chain ad wants to show happy customers eating their burgers. So they project a sitting down silhouette, you obey, and now you take the role of the person eating the delicious looking hologram burger. If you refuse to follow the silhouette it just shows the hologram of an actor filling the role and you get left out of the scene.y

These ads let you feel immersed in the ad and like a part of doing something with the company which drives sales. TikTokers start taking videos of themselves participating in the ads, or subverting them (eg. by pretending to make a disgusted face and throw up at the sight of the burger), but this only creates more ad exposure for the companies. And because people are having so much fun acting in the ad, they don't remember to skip it.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 4:26 am All y'all: who would you include in your POE pool of exactly three mafia suspects?

mac gnome allcrab

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 4:25 am you should have claimed survivor

Claim other win thief but you already declared for mafia. Say town should leave you alive because mafia will be forced to NK you. Proceed to drop poison bomb.

You know what would be cool? A poisoner that publicly poisons someone, they get saved at the end of the day, it looks like a good heal. But in reality there was no save, they were infected with a virus that for them acts as a fake poison, but after their heal it turns them into an infected carrier the rest of the game. Anyone they visit or who visits them gets the disease and turns into a carrier themselves, spreading the disease the same way. After 3 nights all infected people die.

And the reason why that doesn't work tony is that we have no fucking clue how your poison works or what your win condition is. For all we know you have a win condition to poison X people and you solo win the game and you're one night away from achieving that. Or your poison has strange and unexpected twists that screw up the math.

I am confident in my POE so I do not need the extra misexe. I am not confident in leashing or trusting you.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 4:20 am what's GTO

game theoretically optimal

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 4:18 am

Alison wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 4:17 am

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 4:15 am

Alison wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 4:15 am The alison n1 poison makes sense since I was a vocally anti tangy voice around that time

Just to be clear we are literally never not exeing confirmed scum with KP regardless of what mathematics you use

again, not going to bed until I hear "you're right tony" even if it comes with the caveat "but I don't care"

You're right tony but I don't care

smh and you pretend to care about optimality

I believe it is GTO to ignore anything that comes out of the mouth of outed scum when making game decisions

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 4:17 am i think she was scared that mafia would blast her, given her clear, and that the only way to rectify that situation was to kill all the mafia

Why not poison like... hawkataine or whatever the night before hawk got exed

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 4:15 am

Alison wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 4:15 am The alison n1 poison makes sense since I was a vocally anti tangy voice around that time

Just to be clear we are literally never not exeing confirmed scum with KP regardless of what mathematics you use

again, not going to bed until I hear "you're right tony" even if it comes with the caveat "but I don't care"

You're right tony but I don't care

Tangy seems devious. I think she had more up her sleeve than just wanting to help town. I bet she was trying to convince us poisoner was a town role or something.

The alison n1 poison makes sense since I was a vocally anti tangy voice around that time

Just to be clear we are literally never not exeing confirmed scum with KP regardless of what mathematics you use

Why did you poison the people you did tony

I put it at 90% that Tony isn't playing a cruel joke on us && the reason for Gnome surviving the poison is that she's actually scum who is poison immune (as opposed to weird mechanics or whatever).

So 90% we win the game on the spot, that's a good thought for me to go to bed on. See ya.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 12:46 am Chop Tony.

Btw Tone Zone I recognize you replaced into this spot so you good m8

Tangy played well too, and Belzy's hero shot wasn't as outlandish as we thought, it did hit a scum player, it was just unlucky that it wasn't the right kind of scum for desperado to kill.

If Gnome is mafia this game she fooled me fair and square. The lovers thing threw me for a loop but JJJ pointed out it was two way so not cruel to give to a mafioso, she just straight deceived me with her carefree attitude and seeming belief she was about to die as a townie.

it's probably not worth playing around though

i suppose there's no chance TSP realized he had no way to win and decided to troll us by telling us Gnome is outed scum when really he faked the poison on her for whatever reason

excellent, okay

[VOTE: tonystarkprime] aubergine

okay so he's just claiming poisoner and that he doesn't know why his poison failed

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 12:41 am Every Gnome town read in this thread is bad.

I happen to think my gnome town read is quite good

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 12:41 am I actually think Tony is the poisoner and does have evidence against Gnome (that is, why the hell did my poison fail?).

I mean ok, let's exe Tony and then look at his ISO for possible spew on Gnome if he's poisoner (very likely).

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 12:39 am

Alison wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 12:38 am (Basically there's already enough anti-poison stuff - like two claimed poison healers - for me to believe that TSP also has a protection against poison)

do you have an explanation for GG surviving yet

no, not really.

fake poison, miscellaneous weird mechanics, gnome being immune due to being mafia are the three most common theories.

gnome is townie on play however and according to mac fake poisons are a common thing on here.

(Basically there's already enough anti-poison stuff - like two claimed poison healers - for me to believe that TSP also has a protection against poison)

>be poisoner
>town has two poison healers and a one-shot poisonproof and a roleblocker and a tracker that can track you straight to the person who is very publicly poisoned.
>have no team to help you out, lose the game instantly if you die

Does anyone believe this? I don't.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 12:14 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Jun 06, 2021 11:35 pm [VOTE: TonyStarkPrime] aubergine

Presuming there's 1 mafia left, as there should be, it's probably better to get the mafia and not the poisoner unless you got less of a clue as to who's mafia.

Poison takes time to kill.

the delay doesn't matter for parity purposes, and poisoner POE is lower because we can exclude watcher claims (and you) from being poisoner but we can't exclude them from being mafia.

furthermore if we are wrong and there are 2 mafia then we should 100% go for poisoner first to reduce KP.

in my view mac/TSP are the only viable poisoners

I'm going to go to bed soon so I'll just point this out. If I am a wolf I have gone to great pains to screw myself into a ridiculously tight POE by continuing to trust Martin, townreading Allcrab, and arguing that Gnome can't be mafia lover even when suspicion on her was raised. I am basically committing myself to a solve of exactly Mac and TSP. In my view you should seriously consider just following that solve. If I am town it is a good solve. If I am scum then the flips there will out me.

Esooa wrote: ↑Sun Jun 06, 2021 11:05 pm there's also been comments today from Alison I REALLY didn't like BTW

such as her saying Mac is trying to expand the PoE which is wolfy

at this time Mac actually had 2 people he wanted to kill... one mafia one poisoner

I actually called him out for not talking about people outside those two soon before Alison somehow said he's expanding the PoE

I think Macs response to both my and Allison's comments here was good. He said "maybe I am expanding the PoE but I don't care" -- I'd expect Mac here to get more combative with Alison but it kinda felt to me like he recognized what I was saying about having a closed focus and looked outside those two and thusly accepted Allison's criticism/his place in the PoE

He was opening cases on like five people

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Jun 06, 2021 11:03 pm You’re right that Alison has been cruising a bit for someone deep in the POE pool. I will let her answer to that before saying more, though I am mindful of the clock. Day ends in 16.5 hours.

I have done more solving than anyone this day phase except JJJ.

Also I have locked myself into an extremely tiny world if I am scum so it should become obvious if I am.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Jun 06, 2021 9:52 pm Who ya got for mafia?

Allcrab