The Syndicate

Dolby is a good wolf, yeah. I expect better from him as either alignment, I'm a bit confused and it's why I'm so reluctant. He can be pretty active and drive discussion as town and he can put up a very townie performance as a wolf.

He is a solid option, I just... want to see more of him. It feels rather unfair to me.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 12:10 pm

Johanna wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 12:08 pmYeah I did point that out in my next post.

Yes, I saw this. And this reflects my experience. It drives me crazy when people think that you should look at the D1 wagon of a mischop. Actually, if D1 is a hit, it's likely because a lot of mafia decided to bus.

I'm not really used to uncontested mischop wagons, and that's precisely why I dread them. When votes are closer, Mafia tend to need to pick a side.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 12:06 pm

Johanna wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 11:46 am

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 7:08 pm Sig (6): jay, sloonei, spf, ilario, dizzy, lime
G-man (2): axe, tsp
Dizzy (1): sig
Falcon (1): son of anarch
Ilario (1): falcon
Axe (1): Dolby
Tsp (1): Marmot

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Sep 15, 2021 6:42 pm Lime Coke (7): axe, ilario, Marmot, dizzy, sloonei, tsp, Jay
Falcon (3): Johanna, g man, dolby
Ilario (1): falcon
Not voting (3): spf, lime, soa

What are the chances of 0 wolves in either of the mischops?

But then do you need to vote for town if the towncore is already doing that?

The only person in anyone's PoE to vote for both mischops is ilario.

If I'm not completely wrong, everyone on the Sig wagon is town. Which is very typical and proven again and again, especially D1: If town is mischopped by a large margin, the wagon is mainly or even sometimes all town. Mafia resides in wagons that are smaller, doesn't matter or have vanity votes. Mafia are generally more averse to voting town if town are already hanging themselves, which unfortunately we have been. There are already three confirmed town on the Sig wagon for example.

Yeah I did point that out in my next post.

I am not completely against ties. I prefer close races, as I believe they encourage the discussion to go on, but randing at EoD, exciting as it is, I think is not really a good play on the part of town.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 11:52 am
Aw, hugs. I love hugs. <3

Me, I just love Fleabag

You might have me in your PoE but I don't consider myself in question, really.

But then again just look at the recently finished SF3 where the massive EoD mischop wagons contained 0 wolves on D1 and D2

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 7:08 pm Sig (6): jay, sloonei, spf, ilario, dizzy, lime
G-man (2): axe, tsp
Dizzy (1): sig
Falcon (1): son of anarch
Ilario (1): falcon
Axe (1): Dolby
Tsp (1): Marmot

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Sep 15, 2021 6:42 pm Lime Coke (7): axe, ilario, Marmot, dizzy, sloonei, tsp, Jay
Falcon (3): Johanna, g man, dolby
Ilario (1): falcon
Not voting (3): spf, lime, soa

What are the chances of 0 wolves in either of the mischops?

But then do you need to vote for town if the towncore is already doing that?

The only person in anyone's PoE to vote for both mischops is ilario.

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 11:36 am Also, occam's razor / most reasonable thing to do right now is kill someone who voted on both town who is also not eliminated in the PoE.

Yeah, that's actually pretty reasonable.

Marmot wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 11:18 am

Spoiler: show

Maybe I'll become a radiologist like Jo's cousin

I don't see a scummy bone in either o' youse

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 11:01 am I'm still not healed lol

You okay hun?

First rule of town is always yeet the 3P.

VOTE: DIZZLYXICON

Marmot wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 10:56 am

Johanna wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 10:53 am There's also one thing that I keep forgetting to say but I think is kind of funny, which is that when I started catching up because my notifications mentioned Jimmy first I thought he was actually the host and it took me all of page 1 and wondering why the fuck was the host posting like a player to realise my brain had screwed up.

It's a bastard game

So that's why there are three watchers and three fruit vendors

By the way, DUNE is an okay movie. Such wow, very spectacle.

Fans might really like it, but it kind of has no soul and the story feels kind of inherently silly to me.

There's also one thing that I keep forgetting to say but I think is kind of funny, which is that when I started catching up because my notifications mentioned Jimmy first I thought he was actually the host and it took me all of page 1 and wondering why the fuck was the host posting like a player to realise my brain had screwed up.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 10:49 am

Johanna wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 10:45 am

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 10:35 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 10:49 pm Town has exactly one more mischop available before we enter elimination phases (final X). The margin for error is tiny and we cannot afford to have even one member of the town faction say "whatever, I'll just die".

Do you have any anti-alignments that stands out to you? Or in other words, is there anyone you feel are mafia in most worlds? I'll take a look at this tonight myself.

He did make that chart yesterday...

Lol =p

My mind doesn't work in charts tbh, I'm looking for more words. I want to know why the charts are what they are, cause I'm not in Jimmay's brain like Sloonmeister. But I'll do the same exercise later tonight.

One huge flaw in the charts is that low posters tend to have higher association potential simply because they haven't had many interactions on the thread, and those are I think how JollyJimmyJoe chose his colours.

And here is the full version

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 5:47 pm

Highly doubt they're mafia teammates
Mostly doubt they're mafia teammates
They could be mafia teammates
They fit together pretty well as mafia teammates

Note: as always I did not write meticulous notes to be posted for this, as it becomes spammy. Instead anyone can ask me to expand on any block and, as time permits, I will try to do so.

When I do this I normally work with fewer levels, but I wanted to be extremely thorough about this one given my worries about the state of the game. Some quick takeaways:

- NAA doesn't have enough fits. Town.
- Sloonei doesn't have enough fits. Town.
>> Each of them has three technical fits, but those fits don't fit with each other.

- Tony can probably be assessed on mechanical bases instead of this.

- ilario, Johanna, and Marmot are all close to meeting the same standard, but technically it is possible if my views are correct for them to be mafia.

- Dolby, falcon, G-Man, and Lime Coke all fit together as pairs, meaning that is a viable mafia team. I would call it my lead theory.

- Some other foursomes that technically can work:
>> Johanna, ilario, Dolby, G-Man
>> Johanna, ilario, Dolby, Dizzy
>> Probably more, but I need more time to exhaustively work through it. Separate post maybe.

- Obviously I can be wrong about stuff. I can't worry about that. This is the result of my work.

I dunno how to link posts so I'll just quote here

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 6:02 pm I'm arrogant again and feel like the game is solved.



I removed my 6 strongest town reads... and they're all legitimately strong. That left me with the following POE pool:

Dolby
falcon
G-Man
Johanna
Lime Coke
Son of Anarch

Within that set, Johanna only has two fits. So she can't be mafia with these premises accepted.

Thus we're left with only two teams that can work:

Dolby, falcon, G-Man, Lime Coke
Dolby, G-Man, Lime Coke, Son of Anarch

Put another way, the mafia team is: [Dolby, G-Man, Lime Coke] plus one of [falcon, Son of Anarch].

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 10:35 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 10:49 pm Town has exactly one more mischop available before we enter elimination phases (final X). The margin for error is tiny and we cannot afford to have even one member of the town faction say "whatever, I'll just die".

Do you have any anti-alignments that stands out to you? Or in other words, is there anyone you feel are mafia in most worlds? I'll take a look at this tonight myself.

He did make that chart yesterday...

Anyway, I'm voting [VOTE: SonofAnarch] aubergine for now.

I think as stated yesterday, that JJJ and Sloonei are always the same alignment. Therefore, JJJ town.

Why is TSP alive is my biggest question. I'm not chopping an uncontested claim but still. I briefly voted G-Man after Dizzy's claim but I'm on No Vote as I try to sort out my thoughts.

I think in my first catch up post I already indicated SoA as a most likely wolf in the D1 towncore and D2 did not alleviate those suspicions so I am very happy to go there.

I always want to see more of Dolby, I stil feel like I haven't seen enough from him but I might need to bow to the consensus that he should be chopped.

I am very flip floppy on Falcon. He often feels performative but he also has many posts that ring honest.

I do not know G-Man.

I feel like J's PoE might contain up to three wolves rather than all four, but I really can't say who the fourth would be and who in the PoE would not be a wolf I think there's reasonable doubt on all of them to scum read them but also there is very little certainty.

Finally, I'm off

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 8:05 pm Anyone wanna claim sleepwalker?

Well I mean Dizzy convinced me... but turns out he was never the watcher so... I guess not?

Marmot wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 7:20 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 7:19 pm Maybe there's somehow insight in the fact that mafia didn't believe Tony's claim. I dunno what insight that'd be, but here's a post.

Because Tony is mafia.

Where my mind went.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 7:38 pm I’m the watcher. Game is now mountainous.

Watched Dizzy N1. No one targeted him.

Was on TSP last night.

!!!!!!!

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 7:14 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 7:13 pm Best Role Use vote currently in flux. Stay tuned folks. Drama will unfold soon.

Best role use should go to G-Man or Johanna for sleepwalking to my target

I'll take it!

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 7:13 pm Actually, I'll just reveal now. Spf was targeted by G-man AND Johanna (of course lol). So one of these are scum and one is the sleepwalker, I'm guessing

LMAO

Hardclaiming sleepwalker.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 7:08 pm Okay then

I think I dreamt that Jay was poisoned, so I came in thinking Jay was poisoned despite not having seen the thread yet, and only now do I realise it was a dream. Spoopy.

I am going to bed. For real. I don't have the nerves for an hour of CFDs

Stress is awful for your hair. And hair is everything.

I am getting stressed just by existing in the vicinity of EoD. I need to sleep, I can't hang around!

Bye! Have fun!

3-3-4 what the fuck is going on?

So I get off Limey to Falcon because I hate runaway wagons and that seems like a fair alternative. And suddenly we're 4-4.

Now this is podracing.

Marmot wrote: ↑Wed Sep 15, 2021 11:32 am Does anyone specifically townread either Dolby or Lime Coke? Those two players seem to be consensus scumreads, or at least exist in everyone's POE's, except for each others.

Dolby has a vibe read of Lime Coke, and Lime Coke has Dolby just outside his POE.

Some people had some townread. I haven't really seen a reason to scumread them but I hope things will become a bit clearer now that he seems to have rejoined the thread.

One thing that I couldn't help but note about G-Man's list is that, also against consensus, Dolby was placed rather high up. Unless I am misremembering. These are associative pointers, I'm just not sure how to weigh them. I feel like right now Lime's D2 is the shakiest performance we have and they make a good candidate, so I'd rather start clearing the POE from there or falcon.

G-Man wrote: ↑Wed Sep 15, 2021 9:05 am Theory time:

When I look at Lime Coke's recent evolution on Falcon...

Spoiler: show

Lime Coke wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:36 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:33 pm Lime Coke, when you finish sharing your ketchup, it’d be super if you could give some baseline reads much like I asked from G-Man. Top town and/or mafia reads.

I'm building that up as we speak.

Dizzy is top town if you want a preview.

Falcon could be mafia based on that pop in during that small CFD attempt.

Lime Coke wrote: ↑Wed Sep 15, 2021 12:19 am There's 1 in Falcon/Illario.

But I'm leaning a lot on Illario currently.

Lime Coke wrote: ↑Wed Sep 15, 2021 12:34 am

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed Sep 15, 2021 12:31 am

Lime Coke wrote: ↑Wed Sep 15, 2021 12:27 am SPF
TSP
Axe

Dizzy
JJJ
Sloonei

SonofAnarch
Dolby

G-Man
Marmot
Illario/Falcon (T v W combo here)


@JaggedJimmyJay

This is my list.

Clears

Strong towns

Mid tier

Scum tier.

do you mind talking a little bit about why you think illario/falcon is T v W specifically? why can't they be wolves together?

also, if illario wasn't getting chopped today, who would you wanna vote next?

Because Falcon's just planting his vote on Illario both day phases and not moving. I know both can do well with distancing but that would kinda be ridiculous? Don't you think?

Next vote is either the opposite side of that spectrum with Falcon. Seeing the sudden pop in when he had the CFD placed on him.

Or Marmot.

If Falcon is mafia Marmot is town because Falcon had that weird "Marmot being silent is deafening" post when it was only 2 hours into Day 2.

Lime Coke wrote: ↑Wed Sep 15, 2021 1:13 am [VOTE: Falcon] aubergine

I don't know what to think honestly.

If SPF has a better solve I'll listen.

Otherwise I'm thrown a bit for a loop.

Lime Coke wrote: ↑Wed Sep 15, 2021 2:41 am In terms of my scumreads-

I might only have one.

Since Illario might end up being town.

Falcon has to be mafia. His fixation on Illario and voting him for 2 days straight is very awkward.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 10:42 pm Marmot's silence is deafening

This line from Falcon is kinda gross just based on the merit of him posting this 2 hours after the day started. Like could be timezone difference or whatever reasoning he's not going to be here at SOD every day for every game. Feels like he'd be stacking the deck in order to have his viewpoint look solid.

Last thing is the fact that the CFD wagon started on Falcon, and 2 minutes after SPF is the third vote on the wagon, Falcon appears with a post.

Lime Coke wrote: ↑Wed Sep 15, 2021 2:44 am My issue is that literally every game I play with Falcon I end up scumreading the guy, and that's probably this playstyle difference on this site compared to other games that I normally play.

Like so many town players just look scummy by playstyle.

It makes so many of these players such a >rand flip.

...my mind considers the following:

1) Lime Coke and Falcon are teammates.

2) Lime Coke, seeing that Falcon is on enough radars, adds Falcon to his radar.

3) In short order, Lime Coke puts Falcon deep in his POE, but makes Falcon part of an either/or scenario with a civvie he thinks he can build a case on for a mischop (ilario). This would allow him to save face and go after Falcon if his preferred mischop target gets chopped first.

4) When his ilario case implodes, Lime Coke is forced to double down on his teammate Falcon and votes there.

5) He adds a little hedge at the end to give him a potential reason to not vote for Falcon at the end if it comes to that.


Is this too Mafia 101 and I should give up playing with the jumbo crayons? Or does this pass the sniff test? Poke holes in it please.



I want to look at the folks in my POE today as time allows (which it won't for the most part). This is what struck me when looking at Lime Coke. The placement of JJJ in my POE is among the softest, so I don't think I will go down that road further until the game develops more (preferably with me still in it). That leaves four more folks to consider yet.

Well yeah, this is the long version of "Lime Coke's vote on falcon could be distancing." I am very much thinking along those lines.

To reiterate some things I've already said and some things I did not make clear but which other people have said:

I believe Jay/Sloonei are always the same alignment here.

I believe that there is a chance that either them or two of the second triad are partnered wolves On a different note, I find it interesting that Lime Coke and G-Man both appeared to catch up almost simultaneously. It's probably just a coincidence I think that G-Man is finally here and we can actually throw reads on him. I'm interested how, in reference to the Jay/Sloonei partnership, they dissociate them completely. He has formed a list that is far from the consensus and that's something to evaluate Lime Coke has had a bizarre couple pages worth of posts, I could vote there but I am extremely averse to uncontested wagons.

I find Jay's solve to be a good PoE to start from but I will not vote for Lime Coke without a competing wagon and I would like to hear more from the other suspects.

One salient thing is how Dolby has posted quite a bit, though not as much today, and has not seemed to have a great impact. I would expect more from him as either alignment.

Finally, on the idea of partnerships, I feel if LC is a wolf his vote on falcon might be an attempt at distancing. I'm not too clear on the progression towards that vote.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 5:30 pm @Johanna Before I forget - Who said you’d probably enjoy playing with me? =p Cute though ^^

Oh I'd have to scour Discord for that...

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 5:38 pm ANY BURNING QUESTIONS OR HUG REQUESTS? I’m sleeping soon and tomorrow is hell

I would like a hug!

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 6:02 pm I'm arrogant again and feel like the game is solved.



I removed my 6 strongest town reads... and they're all legitimately strong. That left me with the following POE pool:

Dolby
falcon
G-Man
Johanna
Lime Coke
Son of Anarch

Within that set, Johanna only has two fits. So she can't be mafia with these premises accepted.

Thus we're left with only two teams that can work:

Dolby, falcon, G-Man, Lime Coke
Dolby, G-Man, Lime Coke, Son of Anarch

Put another way, the mafia team is: [Dolby, G-Man, Lime Coke] plus one of [falcon, Son of Anarch].

I think it's not a perfect solve, but it is a solid PoE. I think it contains at least 2 wolves, possibly 3. I'm not sold on all 4. SPF's spread is more likely...

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:51 pm

Goddamn someone beat me to it.

I might show up now and again for the next few hours but just catching up a couple pages has been a drain, so don't expect me to be back in force until the morning (~12 hours from now). Thanks.

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:20 pm

Marmot wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:18 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:02 pm Because I suspect you, and talking to her about a player I suspect can potentially give me quality about each of you.

Could you expound on your suspicion of me just so everyone's on the same page?

Looking through your ISO, I've seen you ask me a number of questions about things that I have said, but your reasons for voting me are often the same:

No good reason, I just don't like all the votes on sig and feel like Marmot can get some attention too.
Poll diversity. You have not earned a town read yet, but you have not been a big topic of discussion either.
At present I am not uncomfortable voting for either marmot or sig. it is slightly worrying that I don’t have any names beyond those two.
We seem to be circling around Marmot and sig as our primary options for today, but neither has an overwhelming case against them.
I put my vote on Marmot a while ago because sig had all the votes and there was no productive reason for me to leave mine there. Marmot was next in line for some scrutiny.


There is a common theme here that I have perceived, that you want to push my name for discussion but have not voiced a suspicion about anything that I've done. Is this intentional? Or am I missing something?

Marmot not with Sloonei.

I'm not with Sloonei

Went down the list and realized Sloonei is not mafia, to no credit of his own play.

This is hands-down your best post of the game thus far. Keep it up!

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:38 pm I do like Johanna a lot, and there’s some derp territory there as well. Wish I had played with her before

Aww. Someone told me I'd enjoy playing with you.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 1:03 pm I think there is at least one reason I could identify to call every single player in this game town-aligned except for G-Man.

If I ask myself which of those would have the fewest or the thinnest reasons, I think I end up with 3 of Dizzy's 4. Add falcon and Dolby.

Yeah, well, and that's for lack of posts...

Well, ilario, I've been playing FM since 2012 and I have about ~60 games under my belt.

I'm just new to the site.

Dolby.

and now I'm taking a break because I've been threadsitting for hours and this is exhausting.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:49 am

Marmot wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:47 am
I do wish you would be as cooperative as you expect Axehole to be.

The purpose of my questions for Johanna is to develop my read on her. We have barely gotten started, thus my read on her has not changed.

Why is she town?

Honestly though. They oughta call you Iron Man fixed

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:49 am

Marmot wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:47 am
I do wish you would be as cooperative as you expect Axehole to be.

The purpose of my questions for Johanna is to develop my read on her. We have barely gotten started, thus my read on her has not changed.

Why is she town?

Honestly though. They oughta call you Iron Man
[spoilers]because it's so ironic![/spoiler]

I mean it's probably mostly because I don't know him and the thread has not revolved around him and I have not been talking to him, mostly, that he slipped my mind.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:37 am I don't think Lime Coke is a consensus town read. I'm iffy on him, at the very least.

No one has anything to read G-man off of. He is a suspect by virtue of not being able to be town-read.

Is TSP just a "lock" because of his claim?

Marmot should be a fairly memorable player. He's been around. I'd recommend perusing his ISO.

Not many people have posted reads list on D2 so far and he was definitely high in the townreads of most lists D1.

TSP is not technically lock but if he's lying about it it will self-resolve. I think his attitude towards the mechanics (encouraging false claims d1) has been vastly more pro-town than ANYTHING that ANYONE ELSE has done so far. He's been kind of cryptic but I don't know that that's an uncommon trait.

And PRECISELY because Marmot has been around and yet nothing he has said or done are in any way shape or form memorable or remarkable, despite you saying that they should be, makes me think something's off.

I'm not the first person to remark on his seemingly ethereal quality.

I mostly I know pretty much nobody here so of course I'm going to be cautious unless something obvious takes place that I notice. What I just noticed is that Marmot is in several PoEs and their thread impact seems pretty much null, which is getting my gears spinning.

I'm probably overvaluing JJJ and Sloonei but with SPF poisoned and yesterday's Triad thing I should think that automatically makes their association +town.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:27 am
Wanna talk about Marmot?

Isn't that funny? I guess I would if I had anything to say! Except I forgot he existed.

I think I've said lots of things.

If what you want is reads I think SoA and Lime Coke are probably the most dubious consensus town reads, Dolby is a good bean so I want to see him around more, and I don't have anything to judge G-Man by.

TSP and SPF are my lock townreads, then JJJ, you (Sloonei), Dizzy, probably NAA goes here, Ilario, Dolby, Limey/SoA, falcon, I have no read on G-Man... and I completely forgot Marmot existed. Is that normal?

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:23 am @Johanna hi my vote is on you, but I know nothing about you! Talk to me about the game. Say any things you want, feel free to bring up any topics you think are under-represented in the discussion so far, or reiterate old points, or whatever.

So how does a pirate like you end up leading a townreads list? Pirates are famous for villainy and booty.