The Syndicate

Also, I legitimately didn't know that there were 2 consecutive nights.

I was considering actually doing an analysis of the game, good thing I didn't.

I was incredibly confused when I got the reveal... Mostly because I didn't understand how I could have missed EoD.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 10:57 pm

You're confused at what exactly?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 10:53 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 10:41 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 10:31 pm @NotAnAxehole, do you think MR and Dizzy both turning out to be town should have any impact upon the way you progress through your process today (beyond just narrowing down the total pool of options)?
MR and Dizzy weren't apart of my solve process. I was just playing the odds that Alison would be right even if she wasn't full confidence.

So no.
Any reason you valued Alison's legacy over your own process that led you to Mac?

I didn't / don't have a complete read on Mac. I haven't caught up on the game. My Mac read from earlier was his impact in the game, not a read on his alignment per say.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 10:31 pm @NotAnAxehole, do you think MR and Dizzy both turning out to be town should have any impact upon the way you progress through your process today (beyond just narrowing down the total pool of options)?

MR and Dizzy weren't apart of my solve process. I was just playing the odds that Alison would be right even if she wasn't full confidence.

So no.

I have a hard time seeing town!mac

And I have a hard time seeing town ever voting Mac, so I'm not even sure if it's worth going back through game history to solve or if I should just push C4 Nanook and hope I'm wrong.

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 8:20 pm it admittedly wasn’t a particularly hard defense though

If Mac defended Alison to his ability, Alison wouldn't have died D1.

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 8:16 pm why is mac a wolf though? when are you gonna explain the read?

We don't reason the same way, so it's going to be hard for us to find common ground on a read whether I explain it or not.

If I explain a read to you it'll be:

Who people pushed
Post time stamps
Who people replied to
Who did people actively not reply to
Probability of game events occurring
Words used
Post length

I'll be honest, I hardly read when people post unless in active conversation with that person. I just don't think any of my reads are going to help anyone solve my alignment except for Maybe Nanook since I explained some of them to him on a call once, but then again - he's one of the prime suspects.

@MacDougall I'm going to assume you're town for a second. Please give me your take on what happened D1:

Why was I alone in defense of Alison who I felt gave off town tells (I'll take this back if the read is proven false in the future, but accurate in every game I've checked). I would expect you to have had a vocal read where you didn't.

I understand you didn't vote Alison in the end (at least I don't think so), but I was shocked at the fact you seemed to not care about her going over at all.

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 7:51 pm @NotAnAxehole what is w!mac’s motivation for constantly trying to remove you from the PoE? do you think he believes he can pocket you/would try to pocket you specifically? what is he trying to do here as a wolf iyo?

wolf!Nanook and wolf!mac can win simply by having me not vote against them - and they know I'll omgus them hard (they've both indicated a scum read on me at some point today). It's MYLO.

Also, them trying to reason with me in this way does nothing towards contradicting your or Jay or anyone else's view on me -- You ask yourself why they care about removing me from the PoE -- You answer your own question: they must be town trying to solve.

So it checks all of the boxes, it gives me what I'm looking for, and gives you what you're looking for. In contrast with debating your alignment, it gives me nothing except for a scum read on anyone who starts to entertain the thought... And increases the chance that you omgus.

OK, @MacDougall the most anti-town thing that Nanook has done all game is unvote you when he realized it would clear people at minimal risk.

Agree / Disagree?

2nd wolf... Fuck if I know.

Mac is obviously a wolf.

Also, as mafia, if I'm not going to include my thought process completely, why would I include myself in a group at all? - Probably so that you could look up where I got them from if you were so keen.

Albeit, the groups are somewhat meaningless now... But they weren't necessarily at the time... Like what if Nanook and Mac claimed PRs, and we had killed Wilgy or something like that... Then I'd be in a bind with the mechanical situation I created for seemingly no reason.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 2:51 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 2:39 pm I want you to answer honestly, but if you answer yes, I'm never taking time to explain a read ever again.
I doubt that you do much of anything "for show". If you're mafia the motivation isn't to "look a certain way", but rather to promote an elimination beneficial to you (and probably with something similar to rationale you really apply as town). One thing that is unclear to me:

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 2:27 pm The random distribution would not necessarily be the game!rand distribution, but leaning towards mac!reads rand distribution. I'm going to assume (I've tested this with a couple games) that Mac's gut / instinctive replies are above the game rand, and he replies to mafia about 30% of the time as town.

Now, if we take this on some of his runs of posting, we can determine that there is about mechanically a 1% chance that Mac, Hally, JJJ, NAA, Nanook, DrWilgy are all town.
I am unfamiliar with your process, and am not sure how the first line becomes the second -- the math in the middle I cannot readily access or replicate without a better understanding of the statistical analysis you're employing.

Valid point, so you know now that my mechanical analysis was correct. What then was my motivation if wolf? I had a MR kill on the burner & once he claimed, Wilgy (who was town) was next up... I didn't really have to do anything here other that push Alison's Dizzy/MR reads... In this world I already have 2 backup options to the primary plan... So where's the motivation for breaking down the game into these two groups?

Mac/C4 final answer.

I want you to answer honestly, but if you answer yes, I'm never taking time to explain a read ever again.

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 2:40 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 2:38 pm what does that post even mean lol
It means I'm 99% sure that C4, Dizzy, MR contain 1 or fewer mafia.

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 2:27 pm @JaggedJimmyJay I'm going to vaguely explain why Mac is mafia without giving away the read entirely.

Let's assume that Mac is mafia, then we can assume that there is a certain agenda to his posts. I'm not going to guess too much as to how this would work.

Now, let's assume that Mac is town... Well then we can assume that he is playing without an agenda, which should roughly demonstrate a random distribution as to the alignment of people he's communicating with.

The random distribution would not necessarily be the game!rand distribution, but leaning towards mac!reads rand distribution. I'm going to assume (I've tested this with a couple games) that Mac's gut / instinctive replies are above the game rand, and he replies to mafia about 30% of the time as town.

Now, if we take this on some of his runs of posting, we can determine that there is about mechanically a 1% chance that Mac, Hally, JJJ, NAA, Nanook, DrWilgy are all town.

I know my alignment, and I have Hally, JJJ as lock town.

I think DrWilgy is firmly within town meta... If you disagree here, this is where I can be wrong.

@JaggedJimmyJay Do you believe that this mech solve was entirely for show?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 2:35 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 2:33 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 2:07 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 2:04 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 2:03 pm Gun to my head, Mac is town. I probably don't have quite your confidence. I think this Day 3 is kind of broadcasting a gamestate though with people clearly solving and people clearly solved. If someone wants to tear me out of that mindset, I am open to being torn. It's happening in my head though.
not sure what you mean?
Both NAA and c4 seem to be struggling to find their place in this day phase, and to me it looks like teammates who aren't sure of the way forward anymore. You and Mac are still working out the game with the progressions and strands that must exist in town brains at MYLO. Nanook isn't doing so quite as visibly, but I think I see inklings of it anyway.
I think you're just projecting. You're struggling to find a justification for your bad read.
Does that mean I am wrong or I am mafia?

I don't think you're mafia.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 2:07 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 2:04 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 2:03 pm Gun to my head, Mac is town. I probably don't have quite your confidence. I think this Day 3 is kind of broadcasting a gamestate though with people clearly solving and people clearly solved. If someone wants to tear me out of that mindset, I am open to being torn. It's happening in my head though.
not sure what you mean?
Both NAA and c4 seem to be struggling to find their place in this day phase, and to me it looks like teammates who aren't sure of the way forward anymore. You and Mac are still working out the game with the progressions and strands that must exist in town brains at MYLO. Nanook isn't doing so quite as visibly, but I think I see inklings of it anyway.

I think you're just projecting. You're struggling to find a justification for your bad read.

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 2:21 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 8:07 pm Oh my god. Mac is howling.
so is he still howling?

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 1:47 pm axe and c4’s posts are both poop today

At least I'm consistent.

This game is hard because yall killed my top town read D1 & forced another town read to claim.

Gut says 1 of Mac, C4, Nanook is NOT mafia... But that isn't good enough.

Kind of like when I gave a scum read on Hally, and she's like I don't know why I bother talking to you.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 3:00 am Not Mafia with NAA Part 1

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:38 pm @NotAnAxehole why did u have c4 as outed mafia?

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:45 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:43 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:38 pm @NotAnAxehole why did u have c4 as outed mafia?
A minor technicality.

I thought their reaction to it was bad too.
What technicality soz?

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 8:04 pm Dizzy, Jay and Axe are all lean town so far.
At this stage of the game I had already begun to suspect C4 was mafia, for mostly asinine reasons (just felt off etc. etc.) which you can sort of see in development here.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:18 pm
c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:14 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:13 pm I might just keep playing without knowing my alignment. Thoughts?
Sounds good to me since I know it anyway
I would hope not given I'm a VT.
So I had scanned the game for mentions of C4, noticing Axe had articulated a semi jokey lock mafia read on C4 from the early game. I prodded him to see if he had a reasonable argument for having made the read. He didn't provide me with enough to pivot into a legit push on C4, but his response felt true enough for me to take as a reason to townread him for having a similar feel towards C4 who along with some unfortunate town, were my early game suspects.

For the record, my scum read on C4 was for how on top of the thread he was trying to be from the moment the thread opened, to the moment I gave the read. I also thought his reaction to the read was weird because... Well, I didn't expect a reaction at all, and if I got one I expected it to be more negative.

I am out of my wolf range

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 8:31 pm I think there is a pretty decent chance that this is making Axe town. Axe picking a tunnel and spam pushing it this way is townie, and so is thinking he has some bs tell read on me.

I gave it yesterday, it's not bs, and it's not overly useful.

Hally wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 8:30 pm i really hope axe is a wolf because i’m not sure mac or nook are

If Nanook and Mac are both town, I've lost,

Hally wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 8:27 pmplease unvote

You likely don't need to worry - if any of me, Nanook or Mac are mafia the votes are harmless.

Hally wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 8:23 pm well now is a great time to explain it

Remember when I said DrWilgy is polarized based on an unintuitive mechanics read?

Mac has a technical tell too - it's just more complicated / applies to people other than himself.

That I didn't fully explain, but I partially explained the mathematics. Difference check between mac and Nanook real, Nanook just had me questioning that over a misunderstanding

Mac is mafia based on my analysis from yesterday when I said one of.

Hally wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 8:19 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 8:17 pm My scum read pre-dates that but also Nanook cc of wilgy was scummy and didn't seem like a cover.
what was scummy about it?

Hmm, actually it isn't, just Mac is mafia.

Hally wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 8:18 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 8:17 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 8:13 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 8:10 pm @Hally it's mac n Nanook
please explain how you arrived at this conclusion
Nanook straight up lying about my thoughts in Wilgy
he posted about you/wilgy after you said it was mac/nook

what made you say it was mac/nook before that?

Mac mechanically doesn't point to him being town.

Mac c4 also possible

My scum read pre-dates that but also Nanook cc of wilgy was scummy and didn't seem like a cover.

Hally wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 8:13 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 8:10 pm @Hally it's mac n Nanook
please explain how you arrived at this conclusion

Nanook straight up lying about my thoughts in Wilgy

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 8:12 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 8:09 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 8:08 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:48 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:42 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:35 pm nook what’s your solve?
Well I'm voting axe so

Draw what conclusions you will
i know, i’m asking who you think he’s with
Idk
Ok, now I know you don't think I'm mafia, so what gives? Wolf with Mac?
I think your derp was faked and I think you should've had wilgy as quasi-cleared

I had Wilgy as cleared, what are you talking about?

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 8:11 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 8:07 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 8:07 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 6:56 pm My absolute first GTH guess is c4/NAA.

I have to think about things though and don’t want to conf bias any theories.
I agree. I think this is the team.
Goes from I'm defending you to I'm hard scum reading you in 1 page
I, had been, defending you prior to today.

Reevaluating to find you mafia, does not an outed wolf make amigo.

All I hear is howling.

@Hally it's

mac n Nanook

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 8:09 pm Id say sandfox but I dont think any of you would get the joke

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 8:08 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:48 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:42 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:35 pm nook what’s your solve?
Well I'm voting axe so

Draw what conclusions you will
i know, i’m asking who you think he’s with
Idk

Ok, now I know you don't think I'm mafia, so what gives? Wolf with Mac?

Idk what to do, I'm about to have my straw house blown away by the big bad wolf.

Oh my god. Mac is howling.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 8:07 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 6:56 pm My absolute first GTH guess is c4/NAA.

I have to think about things though and don’t want to conf bias any theories.
I agree. I think this is the team.

Goes from I'm defending you to I'm hard scum reading you in 1 page

Hally wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 8:02 pm fine, sorry i’ll try not be an ass

really have no idea how anyone could consider me as a wolf here though, and especially not a wolf with axe who i have been trying to kill all game as everyone ignores me

Yes, you are obviously town, like me.

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