The Syndicate

Oh well... @DrWilgy why you no mind meld with me?

Creature wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 4:54 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 4:53 pm
Creature wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 4:53 pm We're missing the important players
Vote Alison, TIE TIE TIE
but I don't want to lynch Alison

I mean, that's unfortunate because she randed mafia.

Let it rand

Creature wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 4:53 pm We're missing the important players

Vote Alison, TIE TIE TIE

DrWilgy is town's only hope.

lul I don't think LC is here.

Alison is MAFIA

@DrWilgy

CFD ALISON

Vote Alison

Seanzie wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 4:45 pm Fext is usually a 100-mile-an-hour poster...

Yeah, feel like this is just a hit.

In fairness, EoD is at such a shit time.

@Fext you should give yourself a chance by voting Alison

Fext wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 4:32 pmOh shit

Yeah, you are dead.

Seanzie wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 4:31 pm Is it 30 or an hour 30? idk how timezones work on this site.

29

How long till Mac CFD onto Creature?

Creature wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 4:16 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 3:52 pm
Creature wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 3:13 pm So we're still lynching Host/Spec today, right?
I've been called a straight shooter before, so I'm not gonna beat around the bush. You aren't a contribution to town and I reckon we need to get rid of you before f5.

Hustles ain't the place for this, we need to get that pool of people down.
Jesus...

What part of DrWilgy's post is problematic?

Seanzie wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 3:36 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 3:26 pm
Seanzie wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 2:11 pm @MacDougall the first time you played with Gavial, do you remember your alignment/his alignment by any chance?
Is Fext aka Gavial? If so, I don't see the resemblance of posting. So that would be a well done by him.
No, Fext is not Gavial to my knowledge.

I want to hear from Mac. You can answer too though - first time you played with Gavial, do you remember your alignment and their alignment?

no clue, probability suggests town town.

Seanzie wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 2:11 pm @MacDougall the first time you played with Gavial, do you remember your alignment/his alignment by any chance?

Is Fext aka Gavial? If so, I don't see the resemblance of posting. So that would be a well done by him.

@Fext care to make this a 2 pony race?

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 2:30 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 2:23 pm
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 2:20 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 2:13 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Jan 10, 2022 7:56 pm
Fext wrote: ↑Mon Jan 10, 2022 7:55 pm as I mentioned though I'm not exactly planning to constrain myself to 1v1ing LC
stop town telling when i'm trying to get you mischopped
@falcon45ca
I mean, that's def tongue in cheek, but OK
Sure, it's a joke... But it came to his mind that the posts might be incredibly towny.

Let's say Fext flips town, there will be a split between "It was obvious" and "He should have just been towny"... Which makes the situation a lot less obvious when he does flip and some people are accused of going for LHF, while some are accused of TMI.
How does Fext look if Alison flips town?

It's a good question that I didn't really consider.

I think it will depend heavily on how Alison approaches EoD, if Alison is set to go over (which she won't) and she holds firm on Fext despite his recent town telling (which I guess could be faked in this hypothetical world), and she flips town, then yeah... He's like very high probability mafia. I think there's a lot more nuance if Alison comes to the conclusion that she's wrong or may be wrong pre-death. I think in this world it is also important for Alison to indicate if she scum reads Fext more than Lime Coke or simply thinks he's a healthier kill.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 2:20 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 2:13 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Jan 10, 2022 7:56 pm
Fext wrote: ↑Mon Jan 10, 2022 7:55 pm as I mentioned though I'm not exactly planning to constrain myself to 1v1ing LC
stop town telling when i'm trying to get you mischopped
@falcon45ca
I mean, that's def tongue in cheek, but OK

Sure, it's a joke... But it came to his mind that the posts might be incredibly towny.

Let's say Fext flips town, there will be a split between "It was obvious" and "He should have just been towny"... Which makes the situation a lot less obvious when he does flip and some people are accused of going for LHF, while some are accused of TMI.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Jan 10, 2022 7:56 pm
Fext wrote: ↑Mon Jan 10, 2022 7:55 pm as I mentioned though I'm not exactly planning to constrain myself to 1v1ing LC
stop town telling when i'm trying to get you mischopped

@falcon45ca

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 2:03 pm
Fext wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 1:54 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 1:47 pm
Fext wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 1:39 pm Despite all that I'm not fully convinced she's a hit

Could just be high on her own supply
There's no reason to think this with Alison. If she's confidently wrong (which you would know for a fact), then she's just mafia - specifically in this situation where she demonstrated null / uncertain reads on other players in the game - lots of them.

There's a difference between a well respected (for their reads) player being wrong, and being confidently tunnel wrong.
Would anybody else like to comment on the veracity of this
I reckon I don't know.

NAA's progression on Alison felt, strange. I can see where the read shifted, nor do I see where a rascal NAA would feel the need to make that shift. Rascal NAA would be fuckin around and would just continue to sheep Alison assumin they aren't aligned.

Now in regards to NAA's read, my conflict is that the only nulls of Alison's are NAA/Creature/Mac. At the time, I'd reckon them were all fair reads.

My progression on Alison is the moment I realized Fext & Lime Coke might be town.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 2:00 pm NAA must have a real low opinion of Fexts game to think he's added so little we can learn from in over 120 posts and diverse player interactions.

Why does Fexts flip give us "little info"?

I literally just told you.

Seanzie wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 1:58 pm
Fext wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 1:56 pm
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 1:55 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 1:47 pm
Fext wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 1:39 pm Despite all that I'm not fully convinced she's a hit

Could just be high on her own supply
There's no reason to think this with Alison. If she's confidently wrong (which you would know for a fact), then she's just mafia - specifically in this situation where she demonstrated null / uncertain reads on other players in the game - lots of them.

There's a difference between a well respected (for their reads) player being wrong, and being confidently tunnel wrong.
He's hedging her slot, don't ya think?
I'd much sooner go Seanzie

You can call that whatever you'd like
Can you give takes on everyone? Just like a sentence or two each, possibly with an ordered list? If you flip town, it will be helpful.

Seanzie just open wolfing.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 1:58 pm
Fext wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 1:55 pm
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 1:53 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 12:16 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 11:52 am
Seanzie wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 2:45 am So I definitely think Fext is the right choice of chop today, but I also think the people currently on Fext should state why they're voting. He brought up a good point that some of the people were voting Fext for a while.

@Alison @DrWilgy @MacDougall

Do you all think Fext scumslipped? If not, do you still think he should be the yeet? Why/why not?

If he flips scum, possible partners?
Well now, I do think I stated quite plain that I do think that there is some disgenuine reading going on in here.

I reckon that I could also vote for Creature here, but that'd generate us little to no vantage if I'm wrong.

My day 1 lock is Fext/Creature.

Other possibilities are as follows:
I could see you and Fext.
I could see LC and Fext.
I could see NAA and Fext.
I would argue that Fext flip also gives us little information. I would also argue that flipping based on what provides more information is a bad strategy - specifically in 7v2.
He has over 120 posts, and lots of interactions

It's impossible for us to not get a good about of info from their flip.
I'd argue the info on me is low

However I would say that forcing like half the town to re-evaluate and at least one or two scum to fake re-evaluation would at least be good

Don't let people stay set in their ways if I go over
You think we gain little info from your flip, eh?

OK.

I mean, the issue is, like Mac pointed out, he's town telling hard. So then he goes over, people are like... Obvious, yeah in hindsight it's obvious that he was town... Ok, who do we target, on wagon or off wagon? People exploiting the fact that he's obviously town but going over because new or people who are pushing the LHF in a game that requires very few misselims?

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 1:53 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 12:16 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 11:52 am
Seanzie wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 2:45 am So I definitely think Fext is the right choice of chop today, but I also think the people currently on Fext should state why they're voting. He brought up a good point that some of the people were voting Fext for a while.

@Alison @DrWilgy @MacDougall

Do you all think Fext scumslipped? If not, do you still think he should be the yeet? Why/why not?

If he flips scum, possible partners?
Well now, I do think I stated quite plain that I do think that there is some disgenuine reading going on in here.

I reckon that I could also vote for Creature here, but that'd generate us little to no vantage if I'm wrong.

My day 1 lock is Fext/Creature.

Other possibilities are as follows:
I could see you and Fext.
I could see LC and Fext.
I could see NAA and Fext.
I would argue that Fext flip also gives us little information. I would also argue that flipping based on what provides more information is a bad strategy - specifically in 7v2.
He has over 120 posts, and lots of interactions

It's impossible for us to not get a good about of info from their flip.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 1:55 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 1:47 pm
Fext wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 1:39 pm Despite all that I'm not fully convinced she's a hit

Could just be high on her own supply
There's no reason to think this with Alison. If she's confidently wrong (which you would know for a fact), then she's just mafia - specifically in this situation where she demonstrated null / uncertain reads on other players in the game - lots of them.

There's a difference between a well respected (for their reads) player being wrong, and being confidently tunnel wrong.
He's hedging her slot, don't ya think?

I don't particularly agree with either of these.

Fext wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 1:53 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 1:48 pm
Fext wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 1:44 pm Why do you specifically think she's mafia here NAA
I don't generally give my whole thought process, but I'll feed you some little bits that I think you might agree with like the one I just gave.
Uh

Why

Because me giving reads primarily helps you read me, it has very little correlation to people changing their minds. There are other factors which have a higher probability of moving votes... Explaining my reads isn't really one of them. Targeting things that people might find scummy is more effective (but also not super effective, so sometimes I don't even bother with that depending on the player).

I also think there's a very strong connection to both Alison - Seanzie being mafia if one of them is.

Fext wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 1:44 pm Why do you specifically think she's mafia here NAA

I don't generally give my whole thought process, but I'll feed you some little bits that I think you might agree with like the one I just gave.

Fext wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 1:39 pm Despite all that I'm not fully convinced she's a hit

Could just be high on her own supply

There's no reason to think this with Alison. If she's confidently wrong (which you would know for a fact), then she's just mafia - specifically in this situation where she demonstrated null / uncertain reads on other players in the game - lots of them.

There's a difference between a well respected (for their reads) player being wrong, and being confidently tunnel wrong.

Fext wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 1:38 pm
Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 5:19 amNAA and Creature are both afk slots who don't care much about the game. This is effectively null behavior for them given their playing style/meta, maybe on the scummy end for Creature because it suggests he could be frozen (especially in, say, Fext/Creature scumteam worlds where he loses motivation after seeing his partner dumpstered and just drops a weaksauce townread on him and walks off).

I mean this is obviously bad / biased meta. Creature is typically a low poster though, so that much is accurate.

Fext wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 1:35 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 1:33 pm
Fext wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 1:30 pm There is deadass zero reason to have only worlds with me and it's starting to grate ngl

Especially with the big talk from certain players about "oh man my D1 reads are so good"

kinda sad ngl
I mean, take that with a grain of salt.

Mac is a good player, so I'm sure he won't mind me saying this, I don't remember the last time (or if I've ever seen) Mac hit mafia on D1. I wouldn't consider Seanzie a particularly good or bad D1 player.
I don't think either of those players have called their own D1 play particularly good

And therefore... My vote.

I wouldn't be surprised if Creature died today, I don't think it's a particularly good (or bad) kill.

Fext wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 1:34 pm Not particularly enthused about a Creature vote either but it sounds like there may be some meta at play here that I'm not familiar with

Or is that just Alison

There's no meta to indicate Creature is mafia. However there is meta to indicate that Creature gets killed a LOT on The Syndicate.

Fext wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 1:30 pm There is deadass zero reason to have only worlds with me and it's starting to grate ngl

Especially with the big talk from certain players about "oh man my D1 reads are so good"

kinda sad ngl

I mean, take that with a grain of salt.

Mac is a good player, so I'm sure he won't mind me saying this, I don't remember the last time (or if I've ever seen) Mac hit mafia on D1. I wouldn't consider Seanzie a particularly good or bad D1 player.

It's probably Alison + Seanzie

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 11:52 am
Seanzie wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 2:45 am So I definitely think Fext is the right choice of chop today, but I also think the people currently on Fext should state why they're voting. He brought up a good point that some of the people were voting Fext for a while.

@Alison @DrWilgy @MacDougall

Do you all think Fext scumslipped? If not, do you still think he should be the yeet? Why/why not?

If he flips scum, possible partners?
Well now, I do think I stated quite plain that I do think that there is some disgenuine reading going on in here.

I reckon that I could also vote for Creature here, but that'd generate us little to no vantage if I'm wrong.

My day 1 lock is Fext/Creature.

Other possibilities are as follows:
I could see you and Fext.
I could see LC and Fext.
I could see NAA and Fext.

I would argue that Fext flip also gives us little information. I would also argue that flipping based on what provides more information is a bad strategy - specifically in 7v2.

@Seanzie AtlA (idk if you remember - you won this game) is a perfect example of a game where I wound up in a situation where I shoehorned my logic around you being town because I saw a game that was impossible to win if you were mafia because you were legitimately willing to entertain me, when I was pegged to be the game ending kill. - Obviously this is because I missed on my fake red check.

Seanzie wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 12:00 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 11:54 am
Seanzie wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 11:42 am
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 11:40 am
Seanzie wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 11:25 am
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 11:13 am
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 10:22 am

If Fext & LC are town, the game is probably over. Alison knows this and is pushing that we should check their alignments before suspecting her... Bundling herself with Mac & Seanzie. Mac who told Fext to stop town telling and kept pushing him which is the type of thing he does as mafia... And Seanzie gets into random tunnels at times... Recent game where he tunneled Mac comes to mind.
Alison isn't raising any alarm bells for me, but that's also NAI for her.

I do belive we should look at 1 of Fext/LC first, Alison is someone I'd look into next RD after one of their flips.
IMO Fext is always the yeet today, but...

it did ping me a bit when Alison said me/her/mac are all on Fext and have good D1 reads... I'm not sure what game she would have gotten that impression from me on, so it felt a bit weird/pockety/lumping herself in, but meh, this is small fries compared to Fext.

If Fext does flip town though, I think Mac deserves more scrutiny though. NAA has made good points that Mac has acted a bit weird around the Fext push, and even things like Mac townreading Alison earlier seemed kinda off.

Again though, this is all thoughts for post-Fext flip. If I'm right on him, we're in great shape, and if not, I need to know that asap.
Agreed.

Sean, NAA my town posse
Ehh... I'm not quite there on NAA, but that is more of a "I really don't understand this player and so not really willing to clear them" and less of a "I think he is scum".
You demonstrate exceptional understanding for my thoughts in your last post, the only difference is that I'm thinking all of that pre-flip whereas you're thinking post-flip. Based on your ability to follow my reasoning in this case, it seems like you would be well suited to become a player who can read me very well.
And yet I have often sat there and stared in disbelief at things you've done as town because I legit can't understand wtf you were thinking... so I don't exactly know how to process the fact that I feel like you've made a few decent points here. While the points you've made make me lean town in a general sense, they clash with what I expect from town!NAA. Not enough of a clash for me to scumread you for it, but enough where I'm not going to towncore you over the points you've made.

I think you can probably learn to follow some of the other thought processes. It's a bit different on syndicate... I think you'd have a higher success rate if you observed my games on Mafia451 (though maybe I'm wrong about this). The fact is, on Syndicate there are a few players who I feel that I can't interact with, and there are a few players who I feel that I can't kill if I want to have any measurable impact on the game. So if you add that context, you'll likely find how that twists my logic in some situations.

Seanzie wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 11:42 am
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 11:40 am
Seanzie wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 11:25 am
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 11:13 am
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 10:22 am
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 9:50 am
Lime Coke wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 8:55 am Not sure if I'll make it to EOD.

Final answer today: NAA and Creature mafia.

[VOTE: Creature] aubergine

Lime Coke wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 8:56 am Mac possibly one of them, but if he is then oh well I guess. Nothing I can do about it.
Why do you feel so glum, chum?

Do you feel that strongly that Fekt is Town?
If Fext & LC are town, the game is probably over. Alison knows this and is pushing that we should check their alignments before suspecting her... Bundling herself with Mac & Seanzie. Mac who told Fext to stop town telling and kept pushing him which is the type of thing he does as mafia... And Seanzie gets into random tunnels at times... Recent game where he tunneled Mac comes to mind.
Alison isn't raising any alarm bells for me, but that's also NAI for her.

I do belive we should look at 1 of Fext/LC first, Alison is someone I'd look into next RD after one of their flips.
IMO Fext is always the yeet today, but...

it did ping me a bit when Alison said me/her/mac are all on Fext and have good D1 reads... I'm not sure what game she would have gotten that impression from me on, so it felt a bit weird/pockety/lumping herself in, but meh, this is small fries compared to Fext.

If Fext does flip town though, I think Mac deserves more scrutiny though. NAA has made good points that Mac has acted a bit weird around the Fext push, and even things like Mac townreading Alison earlier seemed kinda off.

Again though, this is all thoughts for post-Fext flip. If I'm right on him, we're in great shape, and if not, I need to know that asap.
Agreed.

Sean, NAA my town posse
Ehh... I'm not quite there on NAA, but that is more of a "I really don't understand this player and so not really willing to clear them" and less of a "I think he is scum".

You demonstrate exceptional understanding for my thoughts in your last post, the only difference is that I'm thinking all of that pre-flip whereas you're thinking post-flip. Based on your ability to follow my reasoning in this case, it seems like you would be well suited to become a player who can read me very well.

Seanzie wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 11:07 am
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 11:05 am
Seanzie wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 11:02 am
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 11:01 am Seanzie, talk to me.
About what?
How is your morning?
So far so good. Coffee just finished and I'm trying to figure out what to work on today.

I know what I have to work on, I just dread it.

Seanzie wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 11:02 am
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 11:01 am Seanzie, talk to me.
About what?

How is your morning?

Seanzie, talk to me.

Also, the latter is rude.

Alison wrote: ↑Mon Jan 10, 2022 2:51 am If NAA naked votes you as scum he probably has an explanation in mind for it. It is absurd to say that giving this explanation without mentioning an earlier vote is somehow out of his scum range.

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 5:19 am NAA and Creature are both afk slots who don't care much about the game.

Lime Coke wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 5:01 am Low key kind of hoping Fext just flips town. Just everyone being dead wrong and me being right.

This isn't a world of 2 possibilities, everyone being wrong doesn't make you right.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 7:11 am sounds like something I'd say as mafia when trying to sound towny tbh

You keep posting reasons why you should be switching wagons, but don't.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 9:50 am
Lime Coke wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 8:55 am Not sure if I'll make it to EOD.

Final answer today: NAA and Creature mafia.

[VOTE: Creature] aubergine

Lime Coke wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 8:56 am Mac possibly one of them, but if he is then oh well I guess. Nothing I can do about it.
Why do you feel so glum, chum?

Do you feel that strongly that Fekt is Town?

If Fext & LC are town, the game is probably over. Alison knows this and is pushing that we should check their alignments before suspecting her... Bundling herself with Mac & Seanzie. Mac who told Fext to stop town telling and kept pushing him which is the type of thing he does as mafia... And Seanzie gets into random tunnels at times... Recent game where he tunneled Mac comes to mind.

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