The Syndicate

The most mechanically cleared player in the game was saved at night, and there was no kill, we can stop talking about it now.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 9:57 pm a reminder that there are also two doctors in the setup

It's true, there could have been 3 saves last night. The non-kill is completely irrelevant FOR NOW.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 9:55 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 9:52 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 9:46 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 9:40 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 9:37 pm Why does wolf NAA ever post that to wolf Nanook?

brainfullof.png

I'm open to any thoughts on it. It seems everyone is content with "Mac posted some things that sound somewhat intelligent, he must be town". Mac himself in postgame will admit that nothing he's posted to this point is alignment indicative in the slightest, or the actual nuance that makes it alignment indicative actually isn't what he's being read for.

I don't know how anyone town reads this guy, it's about as crazy as people town reading me for being erratic at times and/or deliberately taking a few pages out of the game to go off on a tangent. It's just not the way to read the player.

You are just entirely outrageously wrong in your appraisal here.

I've been townie. If I hadn't been I'd be getting pushed a lot harder because that's what happens to me. I have a townie claim (that I am backed into a corner to use the way town forces me to use it) and I immediately tried to turbo Sabie when day 2 started well before Marmot outed the red check.

Your arguments that I am not town are confirmation bias, paranoia, tinfoil and StarV brand bad logic mixed together in a blender and out came this shit read.

I might be wrong about your alignment, and still you'll agree with what's in bold post-game.

I think the only players actively townreading me are like Jack, Linearpoint and Guillo and Jack and Linearpoint have outlined good reasons. Guillo might just be pocketing me.

You're full of caca

@MartinGG99 Also 2 saves

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 9:54 pm sooooo from what I understand

LC claimed block on Jack

but for some reason we're voting Nanook 800ish posts later?

2 players blocked, 2 players saved.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 9:46 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 9:40 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 9:37 pm Why does wolf NAA ever post that to wolf Nanook?

brainfullof.png

I'm open to any thoughts on it. It seems everyone is content with "Mac posted some things that sound somewhat intelligent, he must be town". Mac himself in postgame will admit that nothing he's posted to this point is alignment indicative in the slightest, or the actual nuance that makes it alignment indicative actually isn't what he's being read for.

I don't know how anyone town reads this guy, it's about as crazy as people town reading me for being erratic at times and/or deliberately taking a few pages out of the game to go off on a tangent. It's just not the way to read the player.

You are just entirely outrageously wrong in your appraisal here.

I've been townie. If I hadn't been I'd be getting pushed a lot harder because that's what happens to me. I have a townie claim (that I am backed into a corner to use the way town forces me to use it) and I immediately tried to turbo Sabie when day 2 started well before Marmot outed the red check.

Your arguments that I am not town are confirmation bias, paranoia, tinfoil and StarV brand bad logic mixed together in a blender and out came this shit read.

I might be wrong about your alignment, and still you'll agree with what's in bold post-game.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 9:48 pm oh jfc

did the game really jump 1k pages in the last 24 hours

Most of them aren't worth reading, and a good chunk of them aren't game-related.

You know Mac, I find it much harder to get any kind of vibe from you over text compared to video.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 9:44 pm I would care about this push if it was anyone other than NAA who nobody ever listens to anyway.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 9:37 pm Why does wolf NAA ever post that to wolf Nanook?

brainfullof.png

I'm open to any thoughts on it. It seems everyone is content with "Mac posted some things that sound somewhat intelligent, he must be town". Mac himself in postgame will admit that nothing he's posted to this point is alignment indicative in the slightest, or the actual nuance that makes it alignment indicative actually isn't what he's being read for.

I don't know how anyone town reads this guy, it's about as crazy as people town reading me for being erratic at times and/or deliberately taking a few pages out of the game to go off on a tangent. It's just not the way to read the player.

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 9:32 pm I think Mac's line of thought this entire game is

"Holy fuck, the CFD was all town"

"Killing the CFD players outs me as wolf"

"Hey guys, the CFD might have all been town"

"Actually fuck it, let's kill the CFD"

@NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME Thoughts?

I think Mac's line of thought this entire game is

"Holy fuck, the CFD was all town"

"Killing the CFD players outs me as wolf"

"Hey guys, the CFD might have all been town"

"Actually fuck it, let's kill the CFD"

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 9:26 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 9:24 pm Or Nanook is just not Mafia, and Mac is peddling whatever LHF will get him to his next win.

Why are you resistant to the idea that Nanook is mafia?

I'm disproportionately more likely to town read Nanook in a hostile environment - so take my read with a grain of salt.

When Nanook said he wouldn't save Sabie, only to fuck her over on N1, I believe that. Also, Mafia team always having their scummiest player hold the kill is not Nanook's playbook. Like, Nanook was blocked last night right, so that assumes he had Sabie carry KP N1 and him N2, I just don't think it's how he plays.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 8:56 pm Maybe Gavial is right about Marmot lol.

lel

Mac pretending like he just had this thought now, town!Mac would have had this thought at the time of the claim before Gavial commented, and dismissed it outright.

@Marmot What are your updated thoughts on the situation? Do we stand firm?

Or Nanook is just not Mafia, and Mac is peddling whatever LHF will get him to his next win.

If I were a vig I'd shoot Mac.

Mac's progression:

Slank

Tryhard

Actually, I cba to think about this anymore... And by the way, you can flip me as well.



How is this town?

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 8:11 pm

sig wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 8:08 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 8:03 pm

Lime Coke wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 7:59 pm Fuck it.

@Jackofhearts2005

What the hell are your reads currently?

I'm afraid to even let you off the hook because I've done it twice and you end gamed and won. I'm not gonna let it happen again just because you post well in a spurt.

You’re not letting me off the hook because I post well in a spurt. You’re letting me off the hook because the only reason to suspect me is because you blocked me but if I was a wolf, I’d be unblockable anyway so there’s no reason to suspect me in the first place.

Town
Marmot
Lime
Mac
LP
Guillo
Dolby

Tony
Martin
Wilgy
Sig
Gav

Falcon
Nanook
Wolf

Wait why would you be unblockable?

Apparently, wolf soldiers are unblockable when carrying the kill. Per LP per the setup. Imma be mad if that’s not the case.

No, soldiers can make other players unblockable, based on my read.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 7:56 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 7:51 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 7:49 pm Oh wait. You don’t.

Marmot is a triple voter, you know who to appeal to.

Pretending you don’t have responsibility for your own vote is antitown and I don’t understand the mindset.

How are we supposed to read you if you refuse to think for yourself?

I give my reads in an attempt to steer the game in the correct direction. My reads have no weight this game, I'm certainly not going to start explaining them, and make it easier for people to read me. There's 1 thing I've done in this game that instantly defines my alignment if you can find it. When I realized I was like, ah fuck... Such a billboard player.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 7:49 pm Oh wait. You don’t.

Marmot is a triple voter, you know who to appeal to.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 7:46 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 7:43 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 7:26 pm

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 4:10 am Actually no, Soldier makes the Mafia factional kill unstoppable by roleblocks, healing, immunity, and redirection.
So, there's no way Marmot used that on a Mafia last night.

Lololololololol

My claim does confirm me.

I’m the other soldier. If I was a wolf carrying the kill, I couldn’t be blocked.

I don't see how that claim clears you - it seems to target another player. If you're the soldier, you likely didn't carry KP, but that's kind of irrelevant to my vote.

It clears me of what I’m being accused of, carrying the mafia kill and then getting roleblocked and that’s why nobody died last night.

You are aware that’s the case on me, right? The entire case.

I'm aware, and I think it's stupid, but it doesn't clear you of being mafia.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 7:26 pm

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 4:10 am Actually no, Soldier makes the Mafia factional kill unstoppable by roleblocks, healing, immunity, and redirection.
So, there's no way Marmot used that on a Mafia last night.

Lololololololol

My claim does confirm me.

I’m the other soldier. If I was a wolf carrying the kill, I couldn’t be blocked.

I don't see how that claim clears you - it seems to target another player. If you're the soldier, you likely didn't carry KP, but that's kind of irrelevant to my vote.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 6:50 pm so i think like mac is town and got shot or lc is town and got off a block

who shoots mac? is that a world?

Idk, I wouldn't, but there are very few players who would listen to my input... So it's basically irrelevant

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 6:51 pm You're right, but I wont like it.

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 6:48 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 6:47 pm

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 6:46 pm

Guillotine wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 10:59 am

Dolby wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 4:21 am

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 4:19 am

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 4:16 am

who are your scum?

Currently I don't know. No one really stands out as extremely obvious.
Nanook I'm putting at about 99% guarenteed Mafia.
Jack might be just because of the RB really, and the last one is between Gullio, Martin, Mac, NAA, or Dolby.

I’m not fully there yet but yeah Nanook sus as hell. I blocked him last night

Guillo imo has no place in the PoE with that list of names

Why, Dolby?

And Why @LinearPoint ? Why am I in that PoE?

I dunno who to trust, everyone sus.

Everyone except for me, right?

Your existence is sus.

It's ok, I figure by day 4 we'll start understanding each other and I'll be firmly in your town circle.

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 6:46 pm

Guillotine wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 10:59 am

Dolby wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 4:21 am

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 4:19 am

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 4:16 am

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 4:15 am And I mean if Gav is already basically taking random shots at probably townies is it really that different to random his shot?

who are your scum?

Currently I don't know. No one really stands out as extremely obvious.
Nanook I'm putting at about 99% guarenteed Mafia.
Jack might be just because of the RB really, and the last one is between Gullio, Martin, Mac, NAA, or Dolby.

I’m not fully there yet but yeah Nanook sus as hell. I blocked him last night

Guillo imo has no place in the PoE with that list of names

Why, Dolby?

And Why @LinearPoint ? Why am I in that PoE?

I dunno who to trust, everyone sus.

Everyone except for me, right?

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 6:40 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 6:38 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 6:35 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 6:34 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 6:33 pm Fwiw jack, I think you're town, but not voting you is game throwing.

Explain how it’s gamethrowing to not yeet a townie.

I'll need to defer to one of the experts on the subject, I am just following their rule by voicing my independent thoughts, but conforming to their decisions.

That’s fucking stupid.

I refuse to be yeeted by an overzealous townie liar (Lime, I’m not mech outted), an insane person (Gav) and three players that are shugging their shoulders and being like “I don’t care/understand.”

Fuck off with that. I’m the unyeetable Jackofhearts. You cannot kill me with shrugs.

LOL

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 6:40 pm spy should probably still not cliam

Unless everyone is claiming, then he can

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 6:39 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 6:33 pm I’d yeet Nanook atp. He can hang out with Falcon on my scumreads.

It’s one thing to sheep another player.

It’s another thing to point out that what is actually being she does is bad mech and continuing to do it. That’s antitown.

The mech says you're roughly null (i think) (maybe)

So in the absence of a strong scumread myself im gonna sheep the functionally confirmed town

This guy makes good arguments.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 6:38 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 6:35 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 6:34 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 6:33 pm Fwiw jack, I think you're town, but not voting you is game throwing.

Explain how it’s gamethrowing to not yeet a townie.

I'll need to defer to one of the experts on the subject, I am just following their rule by voicing my independent thoughts, but conforming to their decisions.

That’s fucking stupid.

I refuse to be yeeted by an overzealous townie liar (Lime, I’m not mech outted), an insane person (Gav) and three players that are shugging their shoulders and being like “I don’t care/understand.”

Fuck off with that. I’m the unyeetable Jackofhearts. You cannot kill me with shrugs.

As it turns out, we can...

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 6:38 pmdo we?

Guillo was probably bluffing.

@Jackofhearts2005 my scum reads are Dolby mac falcon, what do you think of that?

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 6:36 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 6:35 pm Besides, don’t you like gamethrowing? wowee

how can you vote for this I laughed for a full second and a half

Yeah, it was a good jab.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 6:34 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 6:33 pm Fwiw jack, I think you're town, but not voting you is game throwing.

Explain how it’s gamethrowing to not yeet a townie.

I'll need to defer to one of the experts on the subject, I am just following their rule by voicing my independent thoughts, but conforming to their decisions.

Fwiw jack, I think you're town, but not voting you is game throwing.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 6:26 pm dolby/gav/wilgy
nanook on deck

probably works just fine tbh

Batter up

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 6:24 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 6:22 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 6:21 pm

Gavial wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:00 pm If I didn’t wanna play optimal and was super determined to just kill off the most likely mafia to me I’d be voting Falcon Rn.

But I’m killing off a likely mafia that can be an easy ML for scum of town later down the line if kept alive instead today.

this post is actually incredible

It is, but does anyone have an example of scum!Gavial claiming he's not voting his top read as mafia? Meta?

Yeah, read his last scum game, He had me at numerous times as his top scum read, and he only voted me 1 RD IIRC. Akemi Homura

I'm not reading a whole game. I haven't even read 1/2 of this one.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 6:21 pm

Gavial wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:00 pm If I didn’t wanna play optimal and was super determined to just kill off the most likely mafia to me I’d be voting Falcon Rn.

But I’m killing off a likely mafia that can be an easy ML for scum of town later down the line if kept alive instead today.

this post is actually incredible

It is, but does anyone have an example of scum!Gavial claiming he's not voting his top read as mafia? Meta?

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 6:17 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:50 pm

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:49 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Dec 23, 2021 4:14 pm

Dolby wrote: ↑Thu Dec 23, 2021 4:10 pm yo

NAA is on Guillo with exactly 1 vote after Guillo did a certain thing

tbh I think that's greedy town lmao, and I'd discourage him from being on Guillo at Eod

I think Guillo is fake claiming to be honest, but it's not really worth the risk because he's a player who would 100% target me if he has a role, whereas everyone else is a bit more up in the air.

Do you TR Guillo here?

Yes, the very fact that I'm saying I want to prevent the shot indicates that I think he's town given that I can't prevent a scum shot.

Both snipers have claimed

Not at the time he was quoting from (at least I didn't get that impression at the time)

We could just mass claim, and play mountainous

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:59 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:58 pm

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:55 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:53 pm

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:51 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:48 pm

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:48 pm

Do you usually vote people you don't think are Maf?

In a game where votes throw off vig shots, yes.

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:49 pm Context matters

Then it really wouldn't be unfortunate that you voted him, would it?

What

You said it was unfortunate you had to vote Guillo...but in so doing, you thought you were saving him from a Vig shot?


Which would mean it is not unfortunate to vote for him?

No, I voted him under the assumption that he could be a town vigilante, so that he wouldn't be able to shoot.

You didn't want a Town Vig to have a shot? Catch me up on why

Because he would shoot me, I thought this was very obvious to everyone.

Idk I'm confused

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:59 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:57 pm

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:54 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:53 pm

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:51 pm

Gavial wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 4:58 pm

Guillotine wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 4:43 pm Just finished reading that Akemi game and Gavial's play there is identical here.

Meta wins

[VOTE: Gavial] aubergine

Guillotine wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 4:45 pm Figuring out if Gavial was TWTBW or actual scum was tough work, holy shit.

No see this is where Mac went wrong.
He’s basing my entire meta off of that game instead of all my games or majority of them.

Please play optimal here, we kill a roleblocked player today (Jack or Nanook) or we just suffer like hell late game.

As far as I can tell there's a 25% chance for a roleblocked player to be mafia* (two blocks and two save claims), thats like...above rand, but not by that much.



*33% from me or Jack's pov

This is why you failed statistics.

What did I miss

Oh there should be a third potential save out there right

So 20% yeah

Idk im tired maybe I'm doing it wrong

In the event that the medic save stopped the kill, it's 50/50 which save did it...

In the event a block stopped the kill it's 50/50 which did it.

However given that a has no relationship with B, we can't say all of these events have even probability.

Can we not say that there were five events which could have stopped a nk, so there's a 1/5 chance of any one of them being the effective one?

As you know I'm awful at math so

I'm not actually sure how to quantify it, it's almost certain that a role blocked target has a higher % chance of being mafia... But how much?

So, if we consider every player has an equal probability of being a target, then the probability that a role block blocking the kill is higher... However, if we consider that each player has an equal probability of carrying the kill, then the save has a higher % chance of having stopped the kill

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:58 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:54 pm

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:53 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:39 pm

Guillotine wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:26 pm We should just play Mafia. Behavior trumps mechanics.

My top 3 picks are mac, falcon, Dolby. Do you town read any of these?

What about Mac, Dolby & I's behavior makes you think we're scum?

I thought the message was clear the first time I ignored this question.

Vote one of us then. Are you TR LC?

I'm sheeping Marmot. Independent thought is game throwing.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:55 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:53 pm

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:51 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:48 pm

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:48 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Dec 23, 2021 7:10 pm I need to continue voting Guillo unfortunately.

Do you usually vote people you don't think are Maf?

In a game where votes throw off vig shots, yes.

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:49 pm Context matters

Then it really wouldn't be unfortunate that you voted him, would it?

What

You said it was unfortunate you had to vote Guillo...but in so doing, you thought you were saving him from a Vig shot?


Which would mean it is not unfortunate to vote for him?

No, I voted him under the assumption that he could be a town vigilante, so that he wouldn't be able to shoot.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:54 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:53 pm

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:51 pm

Gavial wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 4:58 pm

Guillotine wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 4:43 pm Just finished reading that Akemi game and Gavial's play there is identical here.

Meta wins

[VOTE: Gavial] aubergine

Guillotine wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 4:45 pm Figuring out if Gavial was TWTBW or actual scum was tough work, holy shit.

No see this is where Mac went wrong.
He’s basing my entire meta off of that game instead of all my games or majority of them.

Please play optimal here, we kill a roleblocked player today (Jack or Nanook) or we just suffer like hell late game.

As far as I can tell there's a 25% chance for a roleblocked player to be mafia* (two blocks and two save claims), thats like...above rand, but not by that much.



*33% from me or Jack's pov

This is why you failed statistics.

What did I miss

Oh there should be a third potential save out there right

So 20% yeah

Idk im tired maybe I'm doing it wrong

In the event that the medic save stopped the kill, it's 50/50 which save did it...

In the event a block stopped the kill it's 50/50 which did it.

However given that a has no relationship with B, we can't say all of these events have even probability.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:53 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:39 pm

Guillotine wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:26 pm We should just play Mafia. Behavior trumps mechanics.

My top 3 picks are mac, falcon, Dolby. Do you town read any of these?

What about Mac, Dolby & I's behavior makes you think we're scum?

I thought the message was clear the first time I ignored this question.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:51 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:48 pm

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:48 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Dec 23, 2021 7:10 pm I need to continue voting Guillo unfortunately.

Do you usually vote people you don't think are Maf?

In a game where votes throw off vig shots, yes.

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:49 pm Context matters

Then it really wouldn't be unfortunate that you voted him, would it?

What

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:51 pm

Gavial wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 4:58 pm

Guillotine wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 4:43 pm Just finished reading that Akemi game and Gavial's play there is identical here.

Meta wins

[VOTE: Gavial] aubergine

Guillotine wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 4:45 pm Figuring out if Gavial was TWTBW or actual scum was tough work, holy shit.

No see this is where Mac went wrong.
He’s basing my entire meta off of that game instead of all my games or majority of them.

Please play optimal here, we kill a roleblocked player today (Jack or Nanook) or we just suffer like hell late game.

As far as I can tell there's a 25% chance for a roleblocked player to be mafia* (two blocks and two save claims), thats like...above rand, but not by that much.



*33% from me or Jack's pov

This is why you failed statistics.