The Syndicate

Michelle wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 4:56 pm

Wiml wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 4:54 pm Joined for the flavour and got some cool bug facts. 10/10.

Joined for the players. A very special game

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 4:55 pm

Wiml wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 4:53 pm

Michelle wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 4:52 pm My bug is beautiful btw

Mine is very small

Mine isn't even a bug...

Michelle wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 4:52 pm My bug is beautiful btw

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 4:50 pm

Wiml wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 4:49 pm If Ex flips town then I'd almost always vote Roxy tomorrow.

If the wolf is outside of those two names then you can blame me and I'll take full accountability for the loss.

If the wolf is outside of those two names then you can blame me and I'll take full accountability for the win.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 4:45 pm

Wiml wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 4:42 pm Anyone else here?

I'm here and I'm not in the mood for shenanigans. Probably gonna just leave my vote as is.

Kate wrote: ↑Sun Aug 06, 2023 7:03 pm

Roxy wrote: ↑Sun Aug 06, 2023 5:14 pm Ok caught up.

My thoughts have been all over the place today.

My read of Epi is based on I'm always wrong in my gut about him so I just call him opposite and move on and has been a pretty good strategy so far. So but says Epi us bad but brain says he's good.

My Wigly read is a bit shaky I was all good thinking he was town until---- he started posting. I can't help it. It makes me nervous.

My Kate read feels like I possibly made it on quicksand. I'm trying very hard to not suspect her I *know* for a fact that she is busy. But to not post at all? Not even a couple of quick reads? Idk,idk,idk. I feel icky just thinking she could be bad.

My Princess read is all vibe. I really feel they are town. I'm just vibing with their posts. I cannot seem to make you pop up to mention you but I have a question. What do you think of Michelle/Epi vs Wiml? Let's chat about it please.

Michelle and Wiml damn. I have to sleep on all I've digested in the last few pages. I really have you both as town now I have Epi and Michelle and their cases on Wiml.

If I go on gut I feel Wiml does come across as a bit cornered only bc they kept trying to shut down their investigation.

Princess please respond to my query.

I'm really sorry. I can't do any quick reads bc I haven't even read. I am so sorry. I never play this way and I would never use real life to cover my wolfness. This slot is civ. I've asked for a sub.

I'll see you all in a few weeks after Andrew is gone to school.

Love you all.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 3:54 pm

Roxy wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 3:50 pm My posts are fluffy
I only vote late when it doesn't matter
I have no reads

After reading that I lost my wim

I'm trying to find it. Not feeling it at all.

Wiml I meant 60% town wigly 100% town

Roxy, you are truly a fantastic human and I enjoy playing mafia with you.

You thinking I'm 100% town freaks me the fuck out lol

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 3:53 pm

Wiml wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 3:47 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 3:45 pmBah

Got a solid preference for who you think the wolf is or still deciding?

The Ex thing is looming over me like a dark cloud. Making it VERY hard to decide what to do.

Pretty sure I'd go with Ex this cycle based on NKA, but bah.

Roxy wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 3:50 pm My posts are fluffy
I only vote late when it doesn't matter
I have no reads

After reading that I lost my wim

I'm trying to find it. Not feeling it at all.

Wiml I meant 60% town wigly 100% town

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 3:45 pmBah

Roxy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 8:35 am

Epignosis wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 1:05 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 12:56 am

Epignosis wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 12:54 am I'm finishing this nightcap and thereafter going to make a desperate attempt to sleep. If you have anything to ask, speak now or forever hold your pee.

What sells you on Kate being mafia, and do you believe she can be teamed with Abigail?

I wasn't even looking that way until Roxy said something. I could find the post but I'm tired and it's not like Roxy has a million of them.

I think Kate's milking the "Look how well I read Zenon in Bad Dates." I expected you as the host to have more to say on that front, but okay.

It came across as disingenuous, such that Kate even bobbled the alignment.

Then it takes a million attempts to get a word about Kate, and now these two are just distancing at this point.

It's goofy. There's no interaction between them. They aren't looking to figure each other out. They are lost. I'm going with teammates here.

Kate said a funny thing about high posters being 90% town I took umbridge.
I am not thinking it automatically makes her baddie. I just found it an unusual thing for Kate to post.
You jumping on it is a bit of a ping but tbh I think Kate and Pa are probs both town.
I am trying very hard to not let them become a Pyxxy/Scotty diff check in all games where we elim them bc people auto think *one* must be a wolf and 80% of the time both are town and we waste days determining that.

I honestly believe Kate is trying to change her town game, see her last couple of games as town and you will see a marked difference than her previous town play. She is trying to tone herself down and this is just how I have been reading her the last couple of games. I think she would love to live past D/N/ 1 for once.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Aug 03, 2023 7:03 pm Associations of Lime Coke and Roxy

From Lime Coke

~Nada~

From Roxy

Spoiler: show

Roxy wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 11:50 am Pa - everyone can clear her early but me. I waiting on a couple of responses rn no idea.

Wilgy - has not posted that i have seen nor remember no idea

Epi - read him as bad so in all likely hood he is town but srsly no idea

falcon - is falc'ing it up too soon to say for sure maybe town

JJJ - seems to be trying too hard, not sure what to make of it in older games when you was all gusto and bluster you was bad it has been a long while so I will not use old time play against you. I want to see you have fun playing bc it has been so long since we have played< 3 reserving judgement for now.

Kate - very early game half joking half serious seems normal for Kate. For Town Kate at least for now I am not getting the same weird vibes like last game when you were town but you read as bad for me.

Limey - I think we have one game we have played together I I have hosted you but really have not a clue how to read you this game is different from Sesame Street and from CyberPunk. So I am left twisting and have no idea.

Michelle - usually an easy read for me bc her town shines bright from a vibe/tone this game I think town

Quin - No posts that I seen nor remember I have no idea

Wiml - also another try harder on the site. I hope I remembered to welcome you. I will not suss you nor vote you D 1. Bc you are new to me and I want you to feel welcomed. I am unsure but I think with a couple of days with your tone you will show yourself one way or the other. No idea as of now.

I do not what you expect @falcon45ca as it is so early in D 1 and I need almost the full first 48 to form my own proper reads.

What about you?

Roxy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 8:53 am

Wiml wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 4:44 am I don't think that a potential wolf-Lime Coke just gives up under pressure if one of his initial strong pushers (JJJ) is actually a wolf bussing him.

so you think Limey has just given up?

I cannot guage them so your input would be so farout.

Roxy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 9:40 am

Wiml wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 9:13 am

Roxy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 8:53 am

Wiml wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 4:44 am I don't think that a potential wolf-Lime Coke just gives up under pressure if one of his initial strong pushers (JJJ) is actually a wolf bussing him.

so you think Limey has just given up?

I cannot guage them so your input would be so farout.

Yeah, he's somebody who doesn't enjoy wolfing and tends to have serious motivation issues as a wolf. I think he got scumcased by two very vocal villagers who he respects (at least one of them, me, having a historically accurate read on him with something like 20 games played together) and felt demoralised over it and / or that he couldn't recover from the situation and / or that his team wasn't in a winnable position and so just stopped posting full stop.

The only time he's posted since he initially left the thread after getting scumread has been once to post that tweet / copypasta earlier. Since he initially left, he hasn't put any attempt into solving people, answering questions asked to him, addressing the wagon on him or just playing the game: he just posted one off-topic meme in a way that looks more like he's lolcatting than anything (not really sure if that term is used on this site but lolcatting is when an outed mafia member posts blatantly off topic things to avoid spewing the identity of their partners and is generally an admission of guilt).

This is very uncharacteristic of his town play but not something I'd consider unexpected from his wolf play. He's generally very strong, active and obvious (to me at least) villager who I have a lot of respect for so I'm having a lot of difficulty reconciling that with his behaviour this game after getting cased and I think the reasons he was cased in the first place are still solid as well.

wow thanks so much for this. I am afraid it will no doubt impact my vibe of them as I really have none on them.

Roxy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 3:53 pm have had an wild afternoon and need to get Ariya fast. So I have to vote now vote limey
I cannot read him one way or the other except the disappearing act is never a good sign. I'll thank Wiml for this if we get a hit but will not blame them if we don't. I do like their case and felt they have the knowledge of Limey that I just don't.

Roxy sought outside perspectives to help her sort Lime Coke. Initially she wasn't sure, and that's okay with me. I think it's good that she specifically sought Wiml's point of view, absorbed it, and then followed it. She didn't have to do that, particularly given that she had just as much justification to vote Abigail instead if she wanted to.

~~~

Conclusion

I think this material looks genuine, from Roxy's side. I get the impression Lime Coke had no consciousness of her role in the game, and that is a good thing for her sake. Probably not his teammate.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 10:14 am This is honestly very interesting and I think it's due to a lack of history, but I assure you Wiml, I'm the last person to be cleared.

Like almost ever and under any circumstance. I don't think you need to worry so much about that.

Michelle wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 3:07 pm I was pretty paranoid when I said Wiml bussed Brad, etc.

I also was paranoid this morning that Wilgy is fooling me.

Both these vanished.

I am also extremely tired and I will make a break from the small screen

Michelle wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 3:04 pm

Wiml wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 2:59 pm

Wiml wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 2:57 pm

Michelle wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 2:55 pm

Wiml wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 2:48 pm

Michelle wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 2:40 pm

Wiml wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 2:34 pm @Roxy how did you come to me being 60% likely to be a wolf yesterday?

That seems like an insane confidence level on me being a wolf for it to come out of nowhere.

Why is 60% an insane confidence?

For reference, I'd probably say my confidence level on Quin flipping wolf was about 50%?

60% is a very strong scumread and yet the read seems to have largely popped out of nowhere. Seeing Roxy be suddenly very confident that I'm the wolf (in spite of attributing the Lime Coke flip to me + previously having me as town) while not really having the explanation to back that up and not seeming to act on that read at all is something that I think is worth at least probing into for further info.

I consider a probably of 50% a coin flip - goes either way. But maybe math is different at you.
A 60% confidence is mild, not strong imo, and it's a wishy washy read without the interntion to solve your slot.
If 60% is strong, how is 90%?

90% is my Lime Coke read.

For reference, I would use 25% for a player who I thought was =random chance to be mafia in this situation.

I see. It all comes from the idea a mafia rand has 25% probability, right?
But 25% is exactly = rand and it's pretty low.

Whatever, we can let math for endgame.

Michelle wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 3:01 pm You know what? The game is easy if Wilgy and Wiml are town and we are in agreement we are the town core.

Thoughts?

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 2:58 pm

Wiml wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 2:32 pm @DrWilgy just to check, I am correct that you've come off a triple wolf rand streak and this would be your fourth wolf rand in a row if you were wolfing, right?

I was T in Don't Starve that happened at the same time yes, but didn't get my feet down there and was misyeeted early. So effectively yes.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 2:57 pm

Wiml wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 1:05 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 1:01 pm I don't like this.

Alignment-wise?

No, just game in general wise. I feel that if we don't toss Ex over now it's a danger. I feel that I shouldn't NEED to feel this way suddenly based on something that has nothing to do with my solve.

Wiml wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 2:57 pm

Michelle wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 2:55 pm

Wiml wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 2:48 pm

Michelle wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 2:40 pm

Wiml wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 2:34 pm @Roxy how did you come to me being 60% likely to be a wolf yesterday?

That seems like an insane confidence level on me being a wolf for it to come out of nowhere.

Why is 60% an insane confidence?

For reference, I'd probably say my confidence level on Quin flipping wolf was about 50%?

60% is a very strong scumread and yet the read seems to have largely popped out of nowhere. Seeing Roxy be suddenly very confident that I'm the wolf (in spite of attributing the Lime Coke flip to me + previously having me as town) while not really having the explanation to back that up and not seeming to act on that read at all is something that I think is worth at least probing into for further info.

I consider a probably of 50% a coin flip - goes either way. But maybe math is different at you.
A 60% confidence is mild, not strong imo, and it's a wishy washy read without the interntion to solve your slot.
If 60% is strong, how is 90%?

90% is my Lime Coke read.

Michelle wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 2:55 pm

Wiml wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 2:48 pm

Michelle wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 2:40 pm

Wiml wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 2:34 pm @Roxy how did you come to me being 60% likely to be a wolf yesterday?

That seems like an insane confidence level on me being a wolf for it to come out of nowhere.

Why is 60% an insane confidence?

For reference, I'd probably say my confidence level on Quin flipping wolf was about 50%?

60% is a very strong scumread and yet the read seems to have largely popped out of nowhere. Seeing Roxy be suddenly very confident that I'm the wolf (in spite of attributing the Lime Coke flip to me + previously having me as town) while not really having the explanation to back that up and not seeming to act on that read at all is something that I think is worth at least probing into for further info.

I consider a probably of 50% a coin flip - goes either way. But maybe math is different at you.
A 60% confidence is mild, not strong imo, and it's a wishy washy read without the interntion to solve your slot.
If 60% is strong, how is 90%?

Michelle wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 2:40 pm

Wiml wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 2:34 pm @Roxy how did you come to me being 60% likely to be a wolf yesterday?

That seems like an insane confidence level on me being a wolf for it to come out of nowhere.

Why is 60% an insane confidence?

Michelle wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 2:38 pm

Wiml wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 2:27 pm As for Ex, I'm just going to hold off saying much there for the moment still.

All I'll say wrt recent posts is that I think the frustration is real but I don't find it to be towny.

Frustration is not alignment indicative fmpov.
Ex's catch up and effort in the game is obvious and he thought that his work is disconsidered and was mad because of it.

Why do you think it's not towny, I wish to understand. Why do you label it as AI?