The Syndicate

Ended up skimming Wilgy's Sesame Street wolf game between other stuff and I think he's probably just town here from it.

Guy's obviously burnt out from his third wolf rand in the streak and is just lolcatting from SoD1 and not remotely projecting any enthusiasm.

(https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic.php?t=2547)

Compare that to his ISO this game and it's night and day. I don't think Wilgy would have the stamina to pull off a performance like this as the fourth game in his wolf streak while already seeming to be extremely burnt out.

_ExLight wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 8:34 am I don't fucking want space I want to discuss the game with other people so we come to a proper analysis and consensus, not be around monologuing.

I'm doing that where possible but I also have other things to do and gain very little from real time interactions.

I suggest trying to interact with any of the other players in this game then? Or asking more specific questions that don't take me a very long stretch of time to answer? I've got more to do than I have time for already.

I certainly don't scumread people for townreading me lmao.

_ExLight wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 8:25 am "Widely" suspected because my contributions are literally falling on deaf ears.

Widely in huge quotes because literally only you keep insisting on pushing that I'm scummy on literally no grounds other than this insane PoE and paranoia. If you get me mislynched I'll be extremely pissed off at you.

You really need to stop this bad habit of yours of acting like anyone who townreads you is scummy trying to pocket you, it's kinda annoying to trust a slot and be ignored+tinfoiled by it non-stop. I've been requesting stuff left and right, defending myself, and presenting my own comments and catch-up and you keep ignoring it to instead go off on tangents shooting shade at literally everyone, which is infuriating.

I think I've explained like three times already why the kills before me subbing in + Abgail are not consistent with my slot and I do not remember a SINGLE comment acknowledging it. I asked for non-meta analysis on Wilgy and Roxy and did not get one. I stay up until 1AM wasting my fucking time rereading my catch up and the thread to make an analysis the best I can and it all also gets fucking ignored. I'm getting fucking done with this.

If you want to fucking mislynch me then go ahead and put your vote on me because I'm fucking tired of all that bark and no bite.

AtE doesn't work on me.

I'm giving you space instead of shitting on you and answering your questions when I can even if my answers are sometimes broken up and gradual.

I'm giving reasons to wolf and town read everyone simply because these are thoughts I'm having while I'm in the process of trying to work out what read I have on who. I'm not excessively paranoid of anyone, I'm simply thinking out loud.

Urghhhhh that messes stuff up.

Wait I was using a Wilgy town game for his wolf meta.

I'm fucked.

_ExLight wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 8:14 am
Wiml wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 6:15 am Speedy NKA:

Falcon: Makes sense for Kate/Roxy/Michelle but difficult to justify for Wilgy.

Wolf-Wilgy would need to kill Falcon uncharacteristically early while not killing either JJJ (who I believe caught him in Don't Starve Mafia) or me (who had a lengthy discussion about a Lime/Wilgy 2/2 earlier that day).

JJJ: Makes sense for Kate/Michelle/Wilgy but difficult to justify for Roxy.

Roxy didn't seem to consider JJJ to have looked all that good from the Lime Coke flip so it's questionable that she'd have killed there over me.

Abigail: Makes sense for Ex/Michelle/Roxy. A bit more difficult to justify for Wilgy for previously discussed reasons.

Take NKA with a big pinch of salt though.

Wiml wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 6:47 am It's a rough situation to try to solve.

Ex/Wilgy/Roxy all have stuff in their favour but I don't see enough to confidently call any of them town at this point in the game.

Ex has by far the least in his favour but that seems largely because we only really have content from his slot from 2/4 day cycles.

It's just a case of narrowing that down to two but doing that is rough.
do you have literally any comments on my analyses and defenses or are you just gonna keep tinfoiling me

Yeah, and I was going to comment later, but you're not gonna like them lol.

I wouldn't call my suspicion on you "tinfoil" when you're widely suspected either tbh.

Michelle wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 7:55 am
Wiml wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 7:54 am Brad/Kate EoD1 (and Brad/Wilgy earlier into the day phase)
Tell me what's your take about Roxy.

I'm just reading her past wolf games again now to compare some behaviour, will get back to you once I've done so.

*undermining the PoE

Michelle wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 7:52 am
Wiml wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 7:26 am I guess you could argue that this game makes more sense if Michelle is a wolf.

But I think she's towny and I'm not really ready to consider that atm.
Why am I towny?

The tl;dr is:

- Spewed town by Lime Coke ISO (he doesn't tend to be great at partner interactions).

- SoD3 push on me comes from villagery frustration at the hammer and is risky / unnecessary as a wolf when you could easily have coasted to a win.

- Was undermining the despite benefitting a lot from the PoE as a wolf and general thread complacency.

- Lack of a vote on Lime Coke even after acknowledging he was lolcatting when it would only reflect badly on you to not move your vote.

- Lime Coke lolcatting in general seems like a very dubious strategy when you're vocally pushing on the counterwagon and I wouldn't expect a wolf team of two competent players to self-sabotage so severely.

- Genuinely seemed to believe in your reads (pushes on me/Abi in particular).

Brad/Kate EoD1 (and Brad/Wilgy earlier into the day phase)

If this is the second town game in a row where I had a 2/2 early and then kept letting myself get talked out of it I'll cry.

I need a long break but there's not the time for it lol.

Wiml wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 7:24 am I struggle to see a reason why wolf-Ex kills Abigail if it's not because he thinks she'll scumread him.

Going to check what Abigail said about Ex quickly.

She said very little, just that they're close mafia friends and that she would veto an Ex vote for D3 due to the sub in.

Plus I think she probably just dies this night anyway if the game doesn't end.

If she's alive in the F3 for some reason then obviously be as diligent as you should be with anyone alive in that F3 etc etc.

I guess you could argue that this game makes more sense if Michelle is a wolf.

But I think she's towny and I'm not really ready to consider that atm.

I struggle to see a reason why wolf-Ex kills Abigail if it's not because he thinks she'll scumread him.

Going to check what Abigail said about Ex quickly.

_ExLight wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 7:18 am
Wiml wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 7:07 am @DrWilgy you seem to know more about Abi/Ex's relationship than me.

Would wolf-Ex be concerned about the potential for Abigail to confidently find him as a wolf and bury him?
Answer is no. I trust my wolf game enough to not be afraid of being read. You played with me before, smh.

Wilgy literally played a single game with us (is playing a game with us, rather) - the only one he has ever played with me, and it's one that doesn't have Town/Mafia, so I doubt he's able to make proper judgment on that matter.

I'll wait to see what Wilgy says but appreciate this clarification.

I think Roxy not attempting to make any counterpush to Lime Coke at all seems uncharacteristic for wolf-Roxy.

But @Roxy, could I ask if there's a particular reason why you haven't really made any strong pushes on anyone this game?

@DrWilgy you seem to know more about Abi/Ex's relationship than me.

Would wolf-Ex be concerned about the potential for Abigail to confidently find him as a wolf and bury him?

_ExLight wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 7:00 am morning
did not sleep well

Morning!
Can relate.

It's a rough situation to try to solve.

Ex/Wilgy/Roxy all have stuff in their favour but I don't see enough to confidently call any of them town at this point in the game.

Ex has by far the least in his favour but that seems largely because we only really have content from his slot from 2/4 day cycles.

It's just a case of narrowing that down to two but doing that is rough.

Roxy wrote: ↑Thu Aug 03, 2023 5:25 pm Wow. Weird nk is weird.

I cannot read Quin so i will iso tonight along with a couple of others I had in mind.

I have Ariya so just a pop in.

Also thanks for the d 1 elim wiml. <3

You said here that you thought the NK was weird, who would you have chosen to kill? Me?

Speedy NKA:

Falcon: Makes sense for Kate/Roxy/Michelle but difficult to justify for Wilgy.

Wolf-Wilgy would need to kill Falcon uncharacteristically early while not killing either JJJ (who I believe caught him in Don't Starve Mafia) or me (who had a lengthy discussion about a Lime/Wilgy 2/2 earlier that day).

JJJ: Makes sense for Kate/Michelle/Wilgy but difficult to justify for Roxy.

Roxy didn't seem to consider JJJ to have looked all that good from the Lime Coke flip so it's questionable that she'd have killed there over me.

Abigail: Makes sense for Ex/Michelle/Roxy. A bit more difficult to justify for Wilgy for previously discussed reasons.

Take NKA with a big pinch of salt though.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Aug 04, 2023 11:54 am
Roxy wrote: ↑Fri Aug 04, 2023 11:14 am Wigly is giving me the strange vibes but not bc he is sick but bc he is posting and acting all solvy like he did in a recent game and wolfed the f out of that game to *almost* bring the win home for them. I was absolutely gobsmacked when he was shown to be a baddie. And still am bowing to Daisy for that win for the town.
No worries Roxy, I'm not W this time. Even if I was I wouldn't have the energy to power wolf lol.

This seems like a fair self-defence for Wilgy.

This would be his 4th consecutive wolf game if he were wolfing and would mark a very sharp increase in WIM from last time (Don't Starve Mafia) if so.

Add that on to a partner who gave up early into D1 and Wilgy being ill himself on D1 and the WIM increase is a good look for him.

Does wolf-Wilgy corner himself through insisting that Roxy is town when Roxy is by far the easiest villager to misvote after Ex in a wolf-Wilgy world?

I'm uncertain but wanted to bring it up since it feels like Wilgy, if a wolf, has kind of shot himself in the foot with that approach.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 2:03 pm
Roxy wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 11:52 am also I miss splints this game and also SVS.

I've got reasons to TR a few players, and as of now I'm looking at Epi, Lime & Kate.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 10:09 am Lime Coke...he knows me well enough to know that everything I've done is well within my town range.

I don't believe he believes his read.

Nvm, I can understand sheeping this over the unexplained Epi vote.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 1:03 pm
Wiml wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 12:55 pm @DrWilgy I know it sucks playing while ill, prioritise taking care of yourself first!!!

I'm happy just assuming you're a villager and giving you space for now tbh.
Aye, I'd just assume I'm an unknown though because I am.

I skimmed Falc and I agree this is T Falcon quite confidently. While I haven't seen LC's posts, I can believe T fal believes what he saw there and would be willing to sheep that so far.

Will nap and do some other thinking later.

[VOTE: LC] aubergine

Wait, why did you sheep Falcon onto specifically Lime Coke here?

I checked his ISO and Falcon didn't seem to be voting Lime Coke at this point in time.

I'll go do Wilgy's ISO now since I keep procrastinating on that.

@Roxy, why did you think that your D1 vote on Lime Coke was a hammer?

But yeah, haven't had the best of time in champs to say the least.

It was an absolutely soul crushing experience and almost drove me back to retirement.

Michelle wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 5:13 pm
Wiml wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 5:08 pm
Michelle wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 5:05 pm Thanks DrW!

Ex, did you link me the games I asked for? Sorry if you did and I didn't notice. I would like to check something in the morning.

@Wiml please link me please your last 3 scum games and town games
I've been retired for 2 years and this is my 3rd/4th game back from retirement depending on how you define a game.

You want me to link all those recent ones?
Link me pls what's not MU game or if you played with an outed alt and I can't see it when I search for your DB there.

Didn't see this before but hey at least the MU games have descriptions now lol.

Game on an anon alt (Vittae) as a villager:
https://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showthre ... 8-Standoff

S10 Champs Qual as a wolf:
(https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/threads/40191)
This game was reranded after D1 due to a bot screw-up.

Champs Qual rerand as a wolf:
(https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/threads/40236)
I got extremely physically ill over N1 and had to sub out on D2 after it escalated and I my physical health got worse. This game wasn't very representative of my typical play due to needing to fake a new personality to avoid meta, severe illness and a tonne of game integrity issues affecting my play.

The Champs quals are why people are scared of my wolf play currently since I fooled the players in the game and spec chat twice in a row (at least for the D1s) even after switching personalities to throw everyone off.

Michelle wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 5:05 pm Thanks DrW!

Ex, did you link me the games I asked for? Sorry if you did and I didn't notice. I would like to check something in the morning.

@Wiml please link me please your last 3 scum games and town games

I've been retired for 2 years and this is my 3rd/4th game back from retirement depending on how you define a game.

You want me to link all those recent ones?

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:50 pm
Wiml wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:40 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:27 pm
_ExLight wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:26 pm I'll say it again, but as scum I almost never shoot Abgail here. I'd be shooting Wiml or Michelle here. Abgail simply does not push for my lynch in any scenario on D4 or D5, it would be stupid to shoot her if I were playing for a win.
Phuck it. I believe you. However you are wrong on both your reads of Roxy and I.

Is it Wiml or Michelle?
Do you think Michelle doesn't bus (or really try to save) Lime late into D1 when he's actively lolcatting despite obviously knowing she would need to win F3? And that she is fine with him lolcatting instead of distancing for the cred or trying to live D1?

And that she opens up the PoE to push me and remove Epi when she's already winning if she pushes the status quo? Especially when that push on me is based on being annoyed at a hammer that she didn't really have a reason to be frustrated at as a wolf.

And that Lime goes out of his way to defend her early when she's wagoned even though Michelle has a reputation for being easy to read (regardless of if that reputation us actually correct or not)?

I realise this comes off as a bit accusatory but I mean this genuinely because I think she has several strong positives in her favour.
Unknown. I don't know how Michelle approaches teammates. That's a meta call I don't have the data for, nor am I conscious of Michelle's posture during the LC wagon's formation of that 3/3 split. I can review, but that'd have to be later.

I agree with the 2nd point. I don't see Michelle forcing the PoE open based on how seemingly tight it was come Quin yeet. The only thing that'd lead to that would be W Michelle thinking they needed to to hold appearances? But that is unlikely.

I can see W Lime defending a teammate like that tbh.

I agree.

I think she prefers to powerwolf but neither bussing nor really defending Lime Coke there seems questionable.

As for the spew, I could see it at a stretch but I still think Michelle looks better for it.

_ExLight wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:34 pm Also I'd like to point out that sticking out to the absurd Quin/Epi/Kate PoE is a more complex case of the Monty Hall problem even from just a statistical point of view. One of the worst plays that can be done here is insisting on my slot.

If we factor in other elements beyond just statistical reasoning, it's already a red flag how scum likely kept pushing the order to have the most inactive slot last (Kate's) probably in hopes not for her to sub out but to be either modkilled or lynched without resistance.

I'd argue that Kate would have died D3 if we didn't have your sub in causing you to get a day pass.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:27 pm
_ExLight wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:26 pm I'll say it again, but as scum I almost never shoot Abgail here. I'd be shooting Wiml or Michelle here. Abgail simply does not push for my lynch in any scenario on D4 or D5, it would be stupid to shoot her if I were playing for a win.
Phuck it. I believe you. However you are wrong on both your reads of Roxy and I.

Is it Wiml or Michelle?

Do you think Michelle doesn't bus (or really try to save) Lime late into D1 when he's actively lolcatting despite obviously knowing she would need to win F3? And that she is fine with him lolcatting instead of distancing for the cred or trying to live D1?

And that she opens up the PoE to push me and remove Epi when she's already winning if she pushes the status quo? Especially when that push on me is based on being annoyed at a hammer that she didn't really have a reason to be frustrated at as a wolf.

And that Lime goes out of his way to defend her early when she's wagoned even though Michelle has a reputation for being easy to read (regardless of if that reputation us actually correct or not)?

I realise this comes off as a bit accusatory but I mean this genuinely because I think she has several strong positives in her favour.

But at the same time I've seen so many ridiculous severely line crossing instances of AtE from wolves that I try to ignore it on policy.

And this isn't AtE at anywhere ecen remotely near that level.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:20 pm If there's two posts where I'm like, 'this is w kate' it's these two.

Kate wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 12:59 pm Let me guess, without reading, princess Abigail has used ATE to get yall to move off her?

Kate wrote: ↑Mon Jul 31, 2023 8:40 pm So it must be Quin, diet Pepsi and poor poor Dr wolfy.

*solved*
But Kate's last two posts really get me.

The post above the first one, asking why Lime Coke was a wagon and then doing almost nothing about that question was pretty wolfy as well imo.

But yeah, Kate's last posts really got me.

_ExLight wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:15 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:07 pm Rainbows are somewhat moot.

PoE is between Wiml and Ex.

This makes sense as game winning.
Wiml was one of the main people pushing for an early Lime lynch, which they kept up throughout the day while trying to make pairings as to potential scumbud teams.

I'm aware that my previous slot doesn't look too good due to inactivity, but if I recall correctly Roxy vouched that my slot is having some issues IRL and that's why they had to sub out. As my main argument, Kate wouldn't have been able to keep up with the thread as well, and yet the night kills seem to be done by someone who's been keeping up with the game. The previous days lynches are also clearly manipulated by someone who's was pushing the Kate/Epi/Quin PoE who I am fully aware to be full town by now.

If that last sentence is true then wouldn't that make Roxy a villager iyo?

I don't think she's been doing much pushing or manipulating of the wagons at all.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:07 pm Rainbows are somewhat moot.

PoE is between Wiml and Ex.

This makes sense as game winning.

Who's your third between the other two?

_ExLight wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:02 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:01 pm
Wiml wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 3:58 pm Wilgy, why isn't voting Ex today and then then having Roxy vote me tomorrow a viable theoretical gameplan for you as a wolf fypov? (Or voting me today and having Roxy vote Ex).
Because Roxy doesn't trust me.

It's very much a meta thing. Roxy is VERY hesitant to trust me, especially after Cyberpunk (which she's referenced prior). If you/me/Roxy end up in f3 and I'm wolf I'm pretty sure Roxy throws me overboard more often than not.

I say this with about 60-70% confidence. More than enough for me to be wary of a Roxy f3.

Regarding this newfound confidence in me. I'm not sure about it. It's really easy to accept it as townie mind meld, but the paranoia in me is like 'it's too easy.'
She literally said earlier that you're 100% Town, lol

I don't think Wilgy could have anticipated that during N3 though so surely wouldn't have impacted his NK choice as a wolf.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:01 pm
Wiml wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 3:58 pm Wilgy, why isn't voting Ex today and then then having Roxy vote me tomorrow a viable theoretical gameplan for you as a wolf fypov? (Or voting me today and having Roxy vote Ex).
Because Roxy doesn't trust me.

It's very much a meta thing. Roxy is VERY hesitant to trust me, especially after Cyberpunk (which she's referenced prior). If you/me/Roxy end up in f3 and I'm wolf I'm pretty sure Roxy throws me overboard more often than not.

I say this with about 60-70% confidence. More than enough for me to be wary of a Roxy f3.

Regarding this newfound confidence in me. I'm not sure about it. It's really easy to accept it as townie mind meld, but the paranoia in me is like 'it's too easy.'

That seems reasonable.

I'll wait to see how Roxy reacts to my post on her clear of you as I'm don't really sure what she thinks happened around EoD3 but it doesn't seem to match what actually happened.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 3:59 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 10:57 am Pretty sure I 100% NK Ex or Roxy. My preferred f3 would always be Abigail/Me/Michelle, Abigail/Me/Roxy, Abigail/Me/You in that order of preference I think.
@Wiml this was where I'd put myself in W Wilgy's shoes.

I get that but why those F3s and not Wilgy/Roxy/Wiml, Wilgy/Roxy/Ex or something along those lines?

Wilgy, why isn't voting Ex today and then then having Roxy vote me tomorrow a viable theoretical gameplan for you as a wolf fypov? (Or voting me today and having Roxy vote Ex).

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 3:54 pm
Michelle wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 3:40 pm
Roxy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 10:52 am
Michelle wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 6:04 am
Wiml wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 3:05 am
Wiml wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 3:04 am The kill was mildly a good look for Wilgy and nothing more.

I very rarely clear based on NKA. I can say that somebody is spewed town by something without having them as a clear.
With additional context, I no longer believe that Wilgy doesn't make that kill anyway.
Ok, I was really curious about your answer because my take was the opposite.
Wilgy made an almost lock town read for Abigail, so if wolf Wilgy could never chop her/ insert her into the Poe, so I thought that if Wilgy is a wolf killing her makes the most sense.

I am sorry I am having trouble with the wording of this post. Can you help an old woman out and try and rephrase this for me?
Well, I don't think you are so old, but unfortunately I am not even Esl so I will try but I can't promise a succes..

When a wolf has a strong town read for someone they usually kill that slot overnight because they can't backtrack on the read and push that slot.
I think Wilgy if wolf could kill Abigail.
I think Ex if wolf could kill her as well.
I would keep her alive as my first push in the game.
Idk much about you and Wiml, I have to reread things
Me killing Abigail would be game losing if I were wolf. I'm pretty much always going to be a player that brings Abigail into F3 as W.

Oh so NOW you're arguing that the NK spews you town.

_ExLight wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 3:42 pm
Wiml wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 3:35 pm If Ex is town and miselimned today then I think I always die in the Wilgy/Roxy/me F3 situation since those two were calling each other town cleared.

So the stakes are really high with this.
You literally die in any final three because all the remaining players threw shade at you at some point and would prolly push for your lynch probably

Yeah, it's unfortunately trending more and more that way even if I think I'm kind of a billboard villager at this point for very strong reasons.

At which point I wash my hands of this game and say I tried but there's a limit to how much I can do.

If Ex is town and miselimned today then I think I always die in the Wilgy/Roxy/me F3 situation since those two were calling each other town cleared.

So the stakes are really high with this.

Wiml wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 3:23 pm I know that Felt Mafia isn't a great example of Kate's wolf range but if Kate/Ex is wolfing in this game then I think there's a fairly noticeable jump in the quality of Kate's wolf game.

That + the two final posts in Kate's ISO make it pretty hard for me to just shrug and say "oh it's just Ex".

The possible answer is just that Kate's wolf game got better since she wasn't ill and had more recent playing experience + the last two AtE posts were just Kate trying to stay afloat by any means necessary as a final attempt and not anything deeper.

But I wish I was more sold on that than I am.

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