The Syndicate

outed wolf wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 4:16 am

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 3:10 pm im starting to townread hally but it's for the overly elaborate 4d chess reason that i dont feel like theyre trying to towntell or get people to townread them. they feel somewhat detached from the game and their posts don't feel cloying or focused on how they're getting perceived - gth i would lean on this coming from hally as a villager

this post, marl?

maybe you have something worth looking at there

Arete wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 3:00 am

Marluxion wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 2:59 am he repeats multiple times in the mason chat that dyachei is a coin flip as well, doesn't really take a stance on either side. he starts the chat with a really bad excuse for voting alison instead of dya though

what was the excuse

Arete wrote: ↑Tue Jun 01, 2021 4:56 pm when your top townread that you've never misread before starts making posts that look like lolcatting with words

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 4:40 pm

Vulgard wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 3:08 am 4. The string of posts you're claiming was me softing a red on c4 was me actually hinting something to Marl. Me and Marl both had Sunbae in our PoE in our night chat. Zack posted something I interpreted as him claiming a red on Sunbae, and that is what I was hinting at when I talked to Marl. I was wondering if he saw it too, because if he did and if the claim was true, we were collectively correct on a PoE read and it would be awesome. It would mean our nightchat got us somewhere. The thing about my JK stuff and claiming a red on c4 was all your narrative, I never planned to do any of this. Honestly, I'm disappointed everybody turned on me instantly (minus Arete) and never considered a different world.

@Marluxion - is this paragraph from vulgard a realistic description of the chat that you had with him overnight? do you believe that vulgard could have reasonably believed that you and him were picking up on zack's "red check" on sunbae?

for this reasoning to be true, it means that vulgard expected you to do the mental gymnastics of picking up on zack's red soft on sunbae, believing that amy was a wolf who was getting CC'd by zack, and believing that sunbae/amy were a wolf team, OR vulgard expected you to deduce that his JK claim was fake and that zack was the real JK who was claiming a redcheck - instead of making the far more logical assumption that vulgard simply wanted you to believe that he had a guilty on c4

outed wolf wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 1:37 pm yes i am wolfing with dyachei

how did you catch us

sunbae wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 1:31 pm The followup question would be: In a world where Outed Wolf is the mafia roleblocker why would vulgard be targeted? The answers are as follows

1. Because he's a wolf with Marl and Marl told him Vulgard claimed JK
2. Because he's a wolf with Bronana and Vulgards poe was Bronana/Outedwolf/Me

If you pick the outed wolf option from the first question, pick your follow up option here please

sunbae wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 1:21 pm A villager will never, ever "bait marl into nightkilling me" because they think marl is a wolf in an overnight chat after spending apparently hours solving with marl and then coming into the thread the next day buddying marl and softing PR again.

Please also note the difference in posting style, intensity, and panic in vulgards postings today vs d1/d2 (which were super calm, chill, and meticulous).

The answer is the vulgard is wolf roleblocker who was setting up a potential claim for down the line to villager marl (both to increase thread influence by pocketing marl and to potentially eventually counter a kill a jk), sent in a kill on X and a rb on amy, got blocked, whoopsies.

The idea that the wolves thought they knew both power roles, knew that the jk was NOT blocking amy (which is the case if wolf marl thinks jailkeeper vulgard is blocking c4), and didn't roleblock amy is just preposterous. Asinine.

Your options are as follows:

1. Vulgard is a wolf who was rather clear, carried the kill as the safest option, got got
2. Outed Wolf is wolf roleblocker who targeted Amy n1, couldn't n2, decided to doc dodge onto vulgard, got a save. We don't even HAVE to have marl wolf for this scenario though its pretty likely.

Thats it.

Pick one and explain why.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 12:07 pm Weh

I thought we had something easy.

Weh

Vulgard wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 12:03 pm

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 12:01 pm

Vulgard wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 12:00 pm

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 11:58 am

Vulgard wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 11:54 am I agree that this seems like a false dichotomy. I understand going by Occam's Razor that this must make Marl a wolf, but socially I really don't think he's a wolf. He's had the towniest reactions in the thread to Sunbae's claim on me fmpov.

I don't think wolves thinking I'm PR is too unreasonable, especially since I've been actively trying not to spew myself VT.

I admit that I didn’t think of one thing:
I didn’t think about mafia not wanting to kill Amy because they may have expected her to get jailkept.
So I was thinking: Why would scum go for Vulgard instead of Amy unless they were sure Vulgard was JK.

That’s a mistake though, cause they weren’t just free to go for Amy anyway. So you may have just been their best guess. In which case, the Marl thing could be an unhappy coincidence.

I honestly can't find a better explanation than this. I really think Marl is just town. His reaction to Sunbae's claim would have to be some extreme theatrics if he were a wolf who knew what happened, and I simply don't think he's capable of that level of pretending.

When you said to Marl “Do you see what I see?” or whatever you said - What was you referring to?

I've talked about this already, but it was in a large post, so I'll restate it in briefer terms. I was referring to Zack's post and vote on Sunbae, which I had interpreted as Zack having a jailkeeper red on Sunbae. Since both me and Marl both had Sunbae in our PoEs at the end of the night, I thought we were right on the money and was excited about the hit. The post was a veiled question whether he could see it too and was just as excited as me. It got misinterpreted to hell and back but that was the intent.

outed wolf wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 12:00 pm If they don't kill Amy, like half the game would be a better potential kill than vulgard lol

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 11:54 am

Marluxion wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 11:49 am

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 11:36 am Maybe be it’s Vul, but it’s always one of them.

ABSOLUTELY NOT
regardless of vulgard's alignment i am town here

stop trying to force a dichotomy for no reason

It’s not for no reason. I explained everything. It fits everything about how Amy was free this night.

If it’s not you, it should be Vul. If neither LOL and also Dya TMI-ing in my face right now.

But if you’re town, look at it logically.
I do not say this for no reason, literally the opposite: for reason.

outed wolf wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 11:26 am If he's a villager who got saved the only one who has a reason to kill him is marluxion with the jk stuff. I can't find a legit reason for a single other person in the game to kill him. It's not like he was a threat, nobody was listening to him after gavial. And I doubt Chloe or arete kill him just because they know him

outed wolf wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 11:27 am Marluxion pushing hard for vulgard to die is a thing too

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 11:36 am Maybe be it’s Vul, but it’s always one of them.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 11:25 am You all are tripping.

Marl is just a wolf.
This explains why Amy was left alone.
They needed to block and kill Vul as they thought he was JK.
Sunbae coming in clutch.
Marl’s posting bad. His fake on c4 was lackluster, entertaining how c4 could be the kill rather than doing a real redcheck bait.
His derp could even be “2 last mafia” because he’s the third lololololol. That is the clownery I’m here for.

Marl wolf.

Vulgard wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 7:34 am Take: What if wolves were trying to roleblock the jailkeeper instead, because they were worried the JK would hit their kill carrier? In that case, they don't target Amy because they're worried she'll be jailkept, but they still try to roleblock the jailkeeper because they're afraid of one of the wolves getting caught by them. If Amy gets a result, JK didn't target them. If Amy gets no result, whoever they tried to roleblock isn't the jailkeeper.

Idk how likely that is but it just occurred to me. In this scenario, the wolves would have to all be likely JK targets, but I don't think it's impossible. Suboptimal, maybe. You could argue they should just go for Amy if they are trying to roleblock the JK. But they went for me instead.

Or they just thought I'm JK and wanted to get rid of me while ensuring I don't catch them in return. Marl believing I'm JK should make him a wolf in that world but his handling of today's situation makes me seriously doubt that possibility.

I think I get attacked in a world where wolves think I'm JK and they are trying to kill me first. In that world it's possible I also get roleblocked to prevent their kill from getting stopped. It's possible they thought me stopping their kill was more likely than Amy tracking the nightkiller.

Just my theory.

Vulgard wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 4:55 am

Marluxion wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 4:51 am like i told vulgard in the nightchat c4 so far this game has been near identical to harry potter fm where he hardly posts and still has an incredibly confident poe that he barely budges on

c4 was town in harry potter

spf could be reading into that but it could also just be a pocket, idk

I could buy c4/spf both being town. I don't think they are v/w with SPF being the wolf. v/w with c4 wolf is possible but would require SPF to grossly misread him.

If c4/spf are both town to you, though, does this mean Chloe's a wolf? Chloe/Zack/Visor or whatever? Replace one of them with dya? I really doubt spf would go for a pocket on c4 by shielding him, I think he's optimal misyeetTM because his day 2 was so bad and SPF with TMI would know this.

nutella wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 4:42 am marl/vul both being town is possible but somehow would feel pretty bizarre atp

idk i think we focus on chloe/dya first and see what shakes out

Vulgard wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 4:39 am Marl - I think his reactions, of all people's, are the towniest here. If he's a wolf pushing agenda and I'm getting snowed, well done. I really think his posts here don't come from a wolf POV. His progression tracks when you assume "villager who feels betrayed and gets tunneled."

outed wolf wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 4:27 am what if: marl w thought vul was the jk

shot him

sunbae accidentally saved the day

bronana wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 4:16 am so there's always one wolf in [marluxion, vulgard] yeah?

Marluxion wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 3:55 am also vulgards last long rant was on c4 and spf specifically
vulgard had said dya is either a wolf kamikaze-ing for alison or their posting is so unbelievably bad on alison that it wraps around to v

he talks about SPF and C4 a lot after that, going through the possibilities of each being w
he says v/v is unlikely because spf's shielding of c4 makes very little sense to him
he does think it is possible that spf is a wolf and c4 is being pocketed by her shield

(these are all extremely abridged, vuglard says many words but i can't copypaste obviously)

i was the bottom-most name in vulgard's POE and he didn't talk about me? he didn't talk about visor or sunbae either?

[VOTE: chloe] aubergine