The Syndicate

Arete wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 4:14 am [VOTE: Chloe] aubergine

I think Chloe completely dodging the thread for ten hours (ten hours that were dominated by a probable V/V thunderdome) is not great and her mindset w.r.t. Alison yesterday is also not great

(like not that she would never be busy for ten hours but it's the ten hours directly following SoD)

i have no idea what's going on with chloes alignment but it isn't in her nature to just ghost a thread either way
she either got distracted or busy irl or forgot or something
i want to wait before confbiasing her in my mind as a wolf until she actually posts

whatever
we dont even have to go vulgard today
there are two other wolves, three if vulgard is somehow town

i want to talk to chloe and i want dyachei to talk more because they've been extremely quiet other than just hopping on whatever bandwagon was going today without even giving their thougths

nutella wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 4:07 am
Marluxion wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 4:03 am Believe me
I would rather live in the universe where vulgard is a villager
I dont want this any more than you do

It just doesn't make any mechanical sense
there are like 3 different explanations that have been floated
- wolves didn't expect to be tracked correctly by amy
- wolves figured amy might be jked anyway as protection (the 50/50 wifom plan that arete originally posted about) and just gambled on it
- the specific visor rb scenario

like, at least acknowledge it's possible even if you think it's suboptimal or w/e

It is not impossible the wolves went full pepega and made nearly gamethrowing actions for reasons beyond our mortal comprehension, yes

but occams razor still just says vulgard is a wolf

like
I guess the kill could have been on vulgard and then they fished for a roleblock to try to stop the jailkeeper? For ??????? reasons?
but that play is so unbelievably bad that it just makes absolutely no sense

Believe me
I would rather live in the universe where vulgard is a villager
I dont want this any more than you do

It just doesn't make any mechanical sense

nutella wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 4:00 am marl continuing to play up the "waaaaaaaaa i got pocketed in neighbor chat, curse your sudden but inevitable betrayal" schtick doesn't feel genuine

if you dont think i've been genuine today, you wouldn't know genuine if you got ran over by a truck hauling 40 tons of genuine

i miss chloe where'd she go

nutella wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 3:53 am - marl fpses a claim in neighbor chat baiting vul into claiming jk
- marl nks vulgard
- kill doesn't go through
- marl acts surprised at sod that theyre both alive which..?? it's like a "wooo vul isnt maf who tricked me" but the perspective seems off for that somehow. this is big thonk tbh
- the shifty eyes exchange happens, vul supposedly referring to zack's sunbae vote but marl interprets it as on c4 for [black box neighbor chat reasons]
- marl claims, getting sunbae to out and painting vulgard as the "real" fakeclaimer
- marl completely goes HARD in the paint on vulgard being outed (i mean i wont deny i fully believed it too and stuff and it could be real) and tries to persuade arete and stuff
- marl is now going on and on about how ridiculous and unthinkable it would be for the wolf team to have not blocked amy, wow that could never happen in a million years

there is no universe in which i am mafia here
my posting today is actually just miles outside of my wolfrange

even if vulgard is a villager (which is so unbelievably unlikely since it means the roleblocker just holstered for ???? reasons) i am never a wolf here

Vulgard wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 3:56 am
Marluxion wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 3:52 am i just realized the way we ended our neighborhood chat should look so UNBELIEVABLY bad for me from vulgard's pov and he hasn't even brought it up

I ended asking him for his legacy and put a hard emphasis on the possibility of him dying lmfao
from vulgards PoV that should have set off red flags immediately if he's town
It... didn't even cross my mind that the post was a wolf writing a goodbye to me.

yes because you knew i was town

also vulgards last long rant was on c4 and spf specifically
vulgard had said dya is either a wolf kamikaze-ing for alison or their posting is so unbelievably bad on alison that it wraps around to v

he talks about SPF and C4 a lot after that, going through the possibilities of each being w
he says v/v is unlikely because spf's shielding of c4 makes very little sense to him
he does think it is possible that spf is a wolf and c4 is being pocketed by her shield

(these are all extremely abridged, vuglard says many words but i can't copypaste obviously)

i just realized the way we ended our neighborhood chat should look so UNBELIEVABLY bad for me from vulgard's pov and he hasn't even brought it up

I ended asking him for his legacy and put a hard emphasis on the possibility of him dying lmfao
from vulgards PoV that should have set off red flags immediately if he's town

Vulgard wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 3:47 am I retract my townread on Marl for not even considering I am telling the truth.

Going to backread real quick.

Mechanics do not lie
silver tongued people who attempt to pocket me using my own damn neighborhood chat do

[VOTE: Vulgard] aubergine

like
The ONLY mechanical qualm i have
is why wouldn't two seperate people execute the kill and roleblock

putting both on one just has this risk happen?
if ONE person roleblocks amy
and the OTHER executes a kill

Wolves never end in this scenario
Either the roleblock on amy goes through
or the kill goes through, whoever it's targetting, because then there is at least plausible deniability

the only explanation is if the wolf thinks they are so incredibly deep that they wont be targetted for jailkeeper in any universe
vulgard more or less fits that bill to the T imo

outed wolf wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 3:41 am So you're convinced vul is a wolf marl?

i am, nothing else makes any sense
like
even remotely

outed wolf wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 3:30 am Hmm. Expecting Amy to be blocked from the jailkeep is theoretically viable

Vulgards still a weird kind of kill, but now that you mention it it is a possibility

It's definitely not what I'd have done as a wolf though

There are no other targets to roleblock. It's not viable at all imo

Arete wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 3:20 am okay so I have another theory

this theory is probably even dumber than the last theory

wolves killed Vulgard for ... reasons, probably a mix of 'thinking he was the jailkeeper' (tbc this isn't shade on Marl, he hasn't done anything that spewed himself VT so he would have been in the PR pool) + 'him and I being masons'

wolves expected Amy to be jailkept and so didn't feel the need to roleblock her (the other EXTREMELY tinfoil possibility that I don't actually believe at all is that specifically outed wolf is the wolf roleblocker and targeted Amy night 1, but was blocked by Sunbae (allowing Amy to get a check off))

alternatively wolves expected Amy to holster and decided to save the roleblock for tomorrow night? but that's really galaxy brain and unlikely

none of these theories make sense but he's a villager so there has to be something that explains it???

[VOTE: Unvote] aubergine

sorry for tunnelling you Sunbae, I got wrapped up in a specific narrative of Vulgard-being-the-jailkeeper and didn't really consider VTgard worlds

Even in this theory there is no reason to risk it. Rber can still just sit on Amy in the case they aren't jailkept.

nutella wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 3:18 am @Marluxion can you clarify a bit about the c4 conversation/do you acknowledge you may have misinterpreted it?

Let me get out of bed and I'll transcribe and paraphrase the entire chat

Arete wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 3:14 am Vulgard is bleeding town right now

and I have no idea what happened last night because no possibility makes mechanical sense unless the wolves are completely incompetent

Nobody living in this game is incompetent

Arete wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 11:15 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 11:01 pm in post number one, vulgard asks me a pointed question about whether or not i am still shielding c4

in post number two, vulgard says that he understands why people want to turboyeet dya, but that there's something "else" he wants to discuss first. this is clearly implying that vulgard has a guilty on someone that isnt dyachei

in post number three, vulgard asks marl if he's seeing what he's seeing

in post number four, (and this is the most important part), vulgard gives marluxion the option to claim for him
I don't know

I didn't see Marl and Vulgard's chat, Marl says that Vul seemed to be not scumreading Sunbae but I don't know what he actually said about them

It's also possible that he jailkept c4 but in that case I have literally no idea what Sunbae is doing. The theory about Vul jailkeeping Sunbae was mostly me trying to rationalize Sunbae's behavior and it's possible that I came up with the wrong rationalization.

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 11:01 pm doesn't the language of vulgard's post toward marluxion (the one where he says: "you might not even need to claim for me") imply that his guilty was on someone that already had a lot of scrutiny? how the hell does that fit in a world where vulgard investigated someone like sunbae?
Bronana had just voted Sunbae, in P#2683. C4 was under suspicion at that time but actually didn't have any votes, Sunbae and Dya were the only people to have votes before Marl claimed.

Sunbae was in his Poe but he was actively surprised when I said sunbae was near the bottom of mine

Arete wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:59 pm
Marluxion wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:54 pm Arete you're going to get yourself mld if you are actually town.
if Vulgard is somehow a wolf here that was going to happen no matter what I said today

like it's not like people would be like 'oh, well, Arete spent two days explaining how their godread on Vulgard made him town, but that's okay, because once he was redchecked they stopped defending him'

I'm not going to pretend to think he's a wolf when I don't just to possibly marginally reduce the chances that I get chainelimed down the line

This is like
Heavy sunk cost fallacy
You're tunneled

Arete you're going to get yourself mld if you are actually town. Stop and wait for Vulgard to post more if you're actually convinced he's town

Amy wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:52 pm man i didn't spend 20 minutes making that gif to get completely stonewalled

It was funny

Real jailkeeper**
Same thing

Arete wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:51 pm
Marluxion wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:48 pm
Arete wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:46 pm
sunbae wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:41 pm my initial thought was "vul trying to get marl to out as jk on c4 red check once the day started means that c4 isn't a wolf. vul knew they were 100% outed (my thinking was they thought c4 was jk so they were trying to get marl to claim it, c4 counters, we kill c4, then marl, then hate ourselves) so ill listen to arguments on it being some mega level with c4 wolf too
okay but this theory doesn't make sense in the first place because Vul would have had ~no reason to claim jailkeeper to Marl overnight in that world

ah yes

wolf Vulgard psychically determined that he would be jailkept, and rather than doing literally anything else about this he claimed jailkeeper to Marl, anticipating that when the kill failed he could manipulate Marl into claiming JK who targeted c4, just in case c4 happened to be the jailkeeper

what an incredibly plausible and realistic theory
Arete why would sunbae yolo one for one with Vulgard if sunbae is a wolf

It isn't lylo and one of the two is exactly the wolf roleblocker
If Sunbae carried the nightkill he would know that he would be outed anyway as soon as the real jailkeeper claimed. In this world, he would know that your claim to have jailkept c4 was false (as that would not explain the failed nightkill). He could reasonably have deduced from your interactions with Vulgard today that Vulgard was the real jailkeeper (this is actually true even if Vul was fakeclaiming to you as VT -- although in this world it would be pretty obvious from the real non-Vul jailkeeper CCing Sunbae), and claimed a red on Vul so that when Vul claimed a red on him it would look reactionary.

If vul is the real roleblocker his target is never sunbae Arete. Never.

It is also possible Vulgard was trying to say that dya was his redcheck when he said he didn't think I needed to say anything (as dya was already being wagoned.)

Arete wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:46 pm
sunbae wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:41 pm my initial thought was "vul trying to get marl to out as jk on c4 red check once the day started means that c4 isn't a wolf. vul knew they were 100% outed (my thinking was they thought c4 was jk so they were trying to get marl to claim it, c4 counters, we kill c4, then marl, then hate ourselves) so ill listen to arguments on it being some mega level with c4 wolf too
okay but this theory doesn't make sense in the first place because Vul would have had ~no reason to claim jailkeeper to Marl overnight in that world

ah yes

wolf Vulgard psychically determined that he would be jailkept, and rather than doing literally anything else about this he claimed jailkeeper to Marl, anticipating that when the kill failed he could manipulate Marl into claiming JK who targeted c4, just in case c4 happened to be the jailkeeper

what an incredibly plausible and realistic theory

Arete why would sunbae yolo one for one with Vulgard if sunbae is a wolf

It isn't lylo and one of the two is exactly the wolf roleblocker

I don't know if it was his intention to get me to claim for him or if it was just to get me to push c4

Vulgard didn't con me into fake claiming for him I did that of my own volition since he had claimed jk to me last night and he was hinting at c4 being red with his posts today

I can't wait to see chloes reaction to this clusterfuck lmao

Arete is in the first stage of grief

Or they're a wolf with vul and want to go down together

One or the other

Arete wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:39 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:37 pm
Arete wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:36 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:26 pm in a world where vulgard/c4 are wolves, what was vulgard's endgame w/guiltying c4 and making marl claim it for him? it would make sense to me if vulgard intended for c4 to flip villager and then for marl to get chopped the next day for fakeclaiming a guilty

but if c4 is a wolf, what does vulgard gain by doing that?
if he's a wolf (which he isn't) he wouldn't have known that the kill would be blocked when he was talking to Marl last night
yeah sure, but i don't understand how that relates to the point that i'm making. i might be misunderstanding you?
hypothetical wolf Vulgard couldn't have planned anything out when he was talking to Marl like 'I'll claim JK to him, and then get him to frame c4 tomorrow' because he wouldn't have known that there would be no kill

idk if I explained that in a way that makes sense

Correct. That's why he tried to save face even though he knew he was going to be outed the instant Amy outed her results if he's the wolf RBer

He was surprised sunbae was near the bottom of my PoE
I'll go more in detail when I wake up but I'm 4 hours past bedtime rn

Arete I don't want to be pocketed any more than you do

It's literally his only suspicion he rambled on at length last night

@Arete

How could Vulgard be the real roleblocker and sunbae be fake if in order for sunbae to be fake, Vulgard's target would have had to be fake too? Think, Arete, Think!

@Arete if Vulgard was the jailkeeper he would have targeted c4 from our conversation last night

Meaning sunbae, if a wolf, would know this information was correct. Your theory doesn't check out.

@Vulgard I just need to know why
Why put in so much effort into the mason chat

Arete wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:16 pm ok so this is a really dumb theory and if Vul is somehow a wolf then saying it is super minus EV because it just tells him what to fakeclaim

but

if Sunbae is a wolf who carried the kill

he would have TMI that Marl is faking (since he would know that c4 didn't carry the kill)

and TMI that the real jailkeeper is going to out him

and he would probably put together with Marl + Vul's conversation at SoD that Vul was the actual jailkeeper

and this is all very convoluted but I think it's more likely than the world where I was wrong about Vul

Arete sunbaes reaction is like exactly what I would expect the actual jk to react with

sunbae wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:13 pm also aretes obviously a wolf if vulgard is so just mow em both down

Wait
If arete is a wolf I'm going to be fully tilted

It's like my ideal wolfteam but they forgot to send me an invite to the team

Arete wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:12 pm I'm not really sure why Sunbae is trying to 1-v-1 Marl here when c4 is already outed but that sure is a thing that's happening, I guess?

sunbae wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:08 pm pretty sure vulgard baited him into claiming to throw shade at the day and out me but my hands are tied and i cant let the day be spent clearing vulgard and casing c4
so your theory is ... Marl is a villager who Vulgard somehow mind controlled into fakeclaiming jailkeeper? lol

He's actually right and we're both fucking idiots who are living inside vulgards pockets rent free

sunbae wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:09 pm
Marluxion wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:08 pm
sunbae wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:06 pm ehhhh i think ima skip the whole song and dance because wolves know this is wrong

counter
vulgards a wolf
WAIT WHAT
i am the jailkeeper

i roleblocked vulgard because i could tell this game was going poorly and that the god read player not caring one bit about being wrong was sketch + they were the easy kill carrier

ergo they are a wolf

The wait what wasn't at the CC
It was at fucking VULGARD being the target

sunbae wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:08 pm pretty sure vulgard baited him into claiming to throw shade at the day and out me but my hands are tied and i cant let the day be spent clearing vulgard and casing c4

Okay so
I fake claimed jk to him at night
And then when he had a townyish reaction I outed that my claim was an fps to try to bait the kill

And then he claimed jk

And the last person he was talking about was c4 and his he didn't understand spfs shield on them.

So when he said "marl are you seeing what I'm seeing" I thought he was trying to get me to figure out his jail and die and flip vt so he could get another jail off

sunbae wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:06 pm ehhhh i think ima skip the whole song and dance because wolves know this is wrong

counter
vulgards a wolf

WAIT WHAT

bronana wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:01 pm bronana locktown

more like congress of bad meta reads amirite

dya's posts today are so flat and make me think w/w but they've got plenty of time to prove otherwise

marl, did you tell vul who you were targeting?

Hinted at it near the end of the night but didn't outright say just in case he was wolfing

c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:00 pm
Marluxion wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 6:59 pm
c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 6:58 pm Who tf would kill me though

I mean dya obviously but they need a hell of a weird team to justify that
It'd have to be like exactly dya plus two deepwolves yeah
Except if there's a deepwolf I'm just about the furthest person from catching them

How so?

c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 6:58 pm Who tf would kill me though

I mean dya obviously but they need a hell of a weird team to justify that

It'd have to be like exactly dya plus two deepwolves yeah

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 6:56 pm i viscerally dont want that report to be real because i am extremely frustrated that i let myself get pocketed so easily if that's the case

but if it is real, then c4 is a wolf, yeah

I mean there are non zero worlds in which the kill was on c4. It's just

I'm having a really hard time seeing them ATM

Arete wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 6:55 pm @Marluxion

am I reading you correctly that you claimed to Vul in your neighborhood

he was already clear but if he can be extra clear that's cool too

I didn't plan to at first but I decided to after he wrote me a novel full of reads

In terms c4 can understand...

Checkmate.

Vulgard wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 6:41 pm
Marluxion wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 6:39 pm
Vulgard wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 6:36 pm I don't think I'll need to explain.

I understand why people want to turboyeet dya but there's also other stuff I'd like to discuss.
Should I tell them
I don't think you'll have to? Up to you though.

Better that I tell them now in case dya turns out to be v
Gives more time for discussion too

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