The Syndicate

Esooa wrote: ↑Sun Apr 25, 2021 1:24 am BK is more towny than he's been in any other game I've seen him in

Also this is basically an OGI read but in the game he was mafia he was doing fucking NOTHING while he was participating in this game

In fact I'm pretty sure his participation in this game is a decent amount of what caused his lackluster contributions in the other game

Which considering the game means he's probably always town

KZA wrote: ↑Sun Apr 25, 2021 1:27 am We really burnt ourselves out early in this one lol

Michelle wrote: ↑Sun Apr 25, 2021 1:16 am

Esooa wrote: ↑Sun Apr 25, 2021 1:10 am I'm probably going to contribute nothing to the rest of this game tbh

Why are you like this?

KZA wrote: ↑Thu Apr 22, 2021 3:26 pm KZA
10. KZA

Town pls
3. Nanook
17. Hally
19. Michelle

To ISO for JPIC interactions
4. Odd
6. Esooa
7. Strawhenge
21. BoKnows

ISO'd
9. Staypositivefriend

---

I'm gonna stop playing for a bit so if I die

my legacy is that I'm KZA

KZA wrote: ↑Thu Apr 22, 2021 1:40 pm

Michelle wrote: ↑Thu Apr 22, 2021 1:38 pm

KZA wrote: ↑Thu Apr 22, 2021 1:35 pm at surface level SPF looks like the most blatant JPIC teammate

Where did you find this?

I'm doing an analysis via SPF's ISO, hopefully can publish before day starts in case I die

KZA wrote: ↑Thu Apr 22, 2021 3:00 pm a bunch of quotes

Spoiler: show

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Mon Apr 05, 2021 3:26 pm i thought it was strange that JPIC used the GoC multiple times to defend himself from accusations in this game. i've noticed that scum under pressure have a tendency to engage in that type of repetition, and the "i've done this as town before too!" defense is the type of defense that wolves tend to default to quite a lot

i think the rest of his posts are null

fine, but easily fakable

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Mon Apr 05, 2021 6:31 pm i think that jagged, sloonei, strawhenge, tutuu, falcon are all town (with tutuu being the least confident name in that list)

i think that marmot, oddmerta, JPIC, AL_sama, alison is a pool with at ~least~ one wolf, but probably multiple

you were right

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Mon Apr 05, 2021 2:03 pm

Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Mon Apr 05, 2021 1:59 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Mon Apr 05, 2021 1:58 pm i find the dynamic between alison/tutuu very interesting

how so?

alison has relentlessly pursued suspicion against tutuu. tutuu has written off alison as town and does not seem concerned about alison's suspicion. i'm not sure what to make of the dynamic yet, but it is notable to me

nothing interaction

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Apr 06, 2021 3:16 am i was hoping that the heat getting off of JPIC for a while would encourage him to scumhunt and solve the game on his own time - but it seems to have done the complete opposite. it worries me that JPIC's motivation in the thread was the highest when he was under suspicion

okay so you should be suspicious then?

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Apr 06, 2021 6:05 pm i think that sloonei, jaggedjimmyjay, macdougall, falcon, strawhenge, esooa is a pool of mostly or entirely villagers

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i think that JPIC is more likely to be town than not but i wouldnt bank on that read w/any level of confidence.

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brief snapshot of where my head is at

Nah apparently town lean for...reasons

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Apr 06, 2021 10:12 pm town:
jaggedjimmyjay
sloonei
strawhenge
falcon

townleans:
esooa
macdougall
BoKnows
Oddmerta
Michelle
Alison

townleans if i squint: (probably a wolf in this tier)
Tutuu
JPIC
Kza

null:
Fingersplints
TSP
Nanook
Dom

Wolfy:
Long Con
Ai Sama
Tedextr
Marmot

ask me anything!

reads list snapshot

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Apr 06, 2021 10:19 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Apr 06, 2021 10:15 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Apr 06, 2021 10:12 pm townleans if i squint: (probably a wolf in this tier)
Tutuu
JPIC
Kza

Which one is most probably a wolf?

kza > tutuu > JPIC, imo

tutuu and kza's names would probably switch around depending on how i feel at a given moment

2 towns ahead of JPIC

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 5:07 pm if i die, then i am reasonably confident that jaggedjimmyjay, macdougall, alison, oddmerta, and strawhenge are all villagers. if there are wolves in this pool, i believe that there is only one.

i would include sloonei on that list most of the time too.

the pool of esooa/hally/falcon/BoKnows is a pool that i would describe as Mostly pure - it would not surprise me if there was a wolf or two in those names, but my general feelings about those players are positive. esooa is a name that i would like to re-evaluate to make sure that i didn't clear hear too easily - i have been fairly uncritical of her posts so far in this game

JPIC/michelle/fingersplints are all on the outskirts of my POE

tedextr/alsama/nanook/kza/dom/TSP/long con is a pool with multiple wolves. there are 2 wolves in that pool if we live in the world that i am imagining. there are more than 2 wolves in that pool if we live in easy world. i think that al_sama is one of them.

i'm gay. good luck!

still in the middle

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri Apr 09, 2021 7:01 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Apr 09, 2021 5:32 pm @staypositivefriend where’s your head at?

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i have found JPIC's posts significantly more villagery than in the one game where i saw him as a wolf - make of that what you will. he is in the upper echelons of my POE. not my preferred chop at all

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okay

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sat Apr 10, 2021 3:06 am

Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Tue Apr 06, 2021 4:07 pm

Marmot wrote: ↑Tue Apr 06, 2021 3:24 pm [VOTE: marmot] aubergine

Self-voting is what GoC marmot did. Should i be concerned?

this is a level 0 read, but i like this interaction between JPIC and marmot quite a bit. it feels like JPIC organically latched on to something about marmot that pinged him, and i can see the thought process of: "marmot is playing similarly to GoC" reflected in the way that JPIC talks about marmot for the rest of d1. i think that is a mildly villagery look for JPIC, although not one that i would assert with confidence at the moment

seems to be a common trend of "this is towny but not towny enough" when SPF talks about JPIC

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sat Apr 10, 2021 3:47 pm catching up with this thread consistently gave me the feeling of: "oh no, the consensus is wrong!", but when i take a step back and evaluate the game holistically, things still feel okay. i have no reason to doubt that alison and sloonei and hally are villagers at the moment. i feel pretty good about strawhenge and BoKnows being a villager. i think that fingersplint's posts today have been significantly villagery than they have all game, even though i'm not at the level where i would comfortably townlean her.

the problem is that the names get more difficult to sort out from that point forward - i think that oddmerta/falcon/esooa is a pool of mostly villagers, but it would not surprise me if there's a deepwolf in those names.

KZA/Long Con/JPIC/Michelle are broadly in the same tier of: "have done mildly villagery things but not enough to warrant a real townread", and that's a weird space for them to be in. i feel the best about michelle being a villager out of those names, and she maybe doesn't deserve to be in the same tier as the other three. even so, it would not surprise me if there's a wolf in that pool if the "consensus" POE comes up dry

i still feel that the pool of al_sama/tedxtr/tonystarkprime/nanook contains multiple wolves, but it probably does not solve the game. i echo the sentiments that this game is probably harder than we think - i think that there is a wolf buried deeper than any of us really suspect, but i don't believe that one hidden wolf is capable of turning the village away from the good direction we're heading in. i still feel mostly good about our trajectory

the question is just who i should vote in that pool of al_sama/tedxtr/tonystarkprime/nanook

again

also 3 townies and Al Sama in the pool lol

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sun Apr 11, 2021 7:42 pm i think that JPIC's claim makes him just a villager, probably

ok here's something more concrete

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sun Apr 11, 2021 10:53 pm i think that michelle is a villager. i think that hally is a villager. i think that alison is a villager. i think that nanook, pending Gavial being a wolf, is probably a villager as well (although that feels deeply weird to say)

^^i think there are mechanical reasons to believe that all of these players are villagers, although the nanook one is dependent on a Gavial scumflip, and there can theoretically exist a world where any of these players are wolves

but if i assume that all of these players are villagers, that leaves me with:

falcon, oddmerta, esooa, strawhenge, KZA, long con, fingersplints, JPIC, BoKnows

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JPIC: the way that JPIC outed his mechanical information about Nanook was villagery, even though JPIC having that information does not necessarily make him a villager. JPIC has been significantly townier than the one wolf game i saw him play

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nvm back on the fence

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed Apr 14, 2021 10:28 pm .
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i am leaning town on JPIC - his posting is just so much better than the wolf game i've seen from him and i like his claim.

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back to town lean

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri Apr 16, 2021 2:39 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Apr 16, 2021 2:32 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri Apr 16, 2021 2:29 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Apr 16, 2021 2:27 pm why is that wrong though? people do that to me all the time and though it’s frustrating it often ends up being correct in games where the poe seems villagery

when everyone is villagery you look at the people who are most capable of being villagery as a wolf. shrug

i mean, i don't disagree. if the POE is full of villagers then it stands to reason that there's a wolf that's just being villagery, but that's not how i'm looking at this game

there are too many people who i don't have to stretch particularly hard to see as a wolf - i am not struggling to find a fit within my POE, i am struggling to find someone who is explicitly wolfy beyond just: "shrug, they could be a wolf"

who are those people?

i mean, everyone

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JPIC could be a wolf

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staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri Apr 16, 2021 3:29 pm i've been typing up a response for a couple of minutes but you are basically right - the position that i'm arguing from is contradictory, or at least, the thought process in my brain is hard to explain right now and i understand why it comes off weirdly

i'm trying to make the point that there are a lot of people in this game that i do not have to STRETCH to find wolfy, which means that i disagree with the notion of: "it is difficult to locate people who might be wolves"

but if i extend further beyond that, it is also true that almost everyone here looks villagery in some way. it is true that i've found villagery things from LC, JPIC, and oddmerta at different points throughout the game - i just don't feel like those reasons are ample justification to remove them from my POE

yeah I think the point of this quote wall is becoming clear

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sat Apr 17, 2021 11:39 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sat Apr 17, 2021 11:38 pm fingersplints and KZA both pushing for JPIC to go over has moved JPIC closer to the outskirts of my POE, at any rate

if fingersplints is the last member of marmot's team then disregard this read

but i suspect that fingersplints is on The Other Team

wonder how you knew Splints was other team

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Apr 18, 2021 8:25 pm jpic
kza
odd
spf

kill these people

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sun Apr 18, 2021 8:27 pm dont kill me. the rest of the people on that list can die though

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sun Apr 18, 2021 8:28 pm

KZA wrote: ↑Sun Apr 18, 2021 8:27 pm Kill JPIC then accept I'm town when he flips red thanks

why is JPIC mafia

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sun Apr 18, 2021 8:36 pm i might actually wanna kill JPIC before i kill KZA

feeling it out

Oh?

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sun Apr 18, 2021 8:44 pm the fact that so many of the "wolfy" people were on JPIC when fingersplints was a perfectly viable option from their point of view does make me feel a little uneasy about JPIC being a wolf

this one is kind of strange since Splints was a lone wolf. so surely any wolves on the other team would be fine with her getting chopped? I don't really see how this makes JPIC less likely to be a wolf at the time of this quote.

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Apr 20, 2021 10:11 pm .
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i don't consider KZA clear, but i agree that KZA should not be the priority chop today, since JPIC's claim reflects well on them.

i can not reasonably rule out the possibility of a JPIC/KZA wolf world, though.

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I think you can

***the dots in the quotes are just me cropping out irrelevant content for readability

anyway in conclusion SPF has basically been on the fence with JPIC the entire game, semi-regularly tossing light reasons for him to be town. she provided a couple posts with her own reasons to suspect him very early on, before settling in to giving him a permanent home in a sort of "townish but not enough to escape POE" pile.

so what does any of this mean?

could SPF be JPIC's teammate?

quite possible, I saw no point in the ISO that made me think they can't be W/W. there was points yesterday where I felt she was lightly nudging away from JPIC, which could potentially be seeing if a teammate can be saved without risking trying to hard shield them at this point. I think I gave decent reasons to think JPIC would flip scum, but she didn't seem too interested in them. she never seemed seriously interested in chopping him when he faced wagons the past 2 days.

does SPF have to be JPIC's teammate?

not quite. it's not unreasonable for town SPF to have trouble placing JPIC, given his drop off the map. also im not sure if this an issue, since many players like to sort of do their own thing as town, but she seemed content to push her own scum read of oddmerta instead yesterday, although her push mostly amounted to just voting for him. I'd like that read explained a bit better from her.

All in all I think this is a decent bet, but it's not exactly a homerun. I will have to look at other players interactions with JPIC to get a complete view of the game. I went with SPF first because I don't feel strongly about her being town and felt she was the most resistant to JPIC's chop.

KZA wrote: ↑Wed Apr 21, 2021 6:07 pm

KZA wrote: ↑Wed Apr 14, 2021 8:59 pm Should we just kill JPIC because tracker is obviously Hanzee

yes this is why they call me KZA

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Apr 25, 2021 12:40 am i think bo is a villager

check spf or esooa imo

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sat Apr 24, 2021 9:59 pm Now we can just write esooa off as 3p and not worry about her, and if we lose to her cause we couldn't kill her during the day we blame the host for terrible game design and console ourselves with the

Oddmerta wrote: ↑Sat Apr 24, 2021 9:10 pm

Esooa wrote: ↑Sat Apr 24, 2021 9:40 am

Oddmerta wrote: ↑Sat Apr 24, 2021 5:01 am No pushback from Esooa?

why would I care

Because a whole ass day got wasted on you, that's why you would care if you were town.

Oddmerta wrote: ↑Sat Apr 24, 2021 5:01 am No pushback from Esooa?

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Apr 22, 2021 7:04 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Thu Apr 22, 2021 7:03 pm why can't today be KILO? we have 22 players in this game and only 4 flipped confirmed scum - there are multiple wolves/3ps alive even in the best case scenario

i dont really believe strawhenge's sudden addition to his rolecard - i think he would have said that immediately when he made his full claim instead of deciding to arbitrarily hide it

I don't believe there are four mafia remaining

Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Tue Apr 20, 2021 3:55 pm

Esooa wrote: ↑Tue Apr 20, 2021 3:46 pm can tracker consecutive target?

Yes, becuase i did

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Apr 20, 2021 1:39 am Like you can protect every night?

And I can protect?

And there's a bus driver?

Seems like a lot to me

BoKnows wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 10:00 pm

Esooa wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 10:00 pm if you wanna lynch me I don't really care

what's ur wincon

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 7:33 pm Guys she died cause we were checking her lol

Hally wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 7:20 pm super kills do in fact pierce roleblocks. so your block is irrelevant in this case

Hally wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 7:14 pm and i still think spf could be a wolf in some worlds depending on how many wolves flip in jpic/odd/kza

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sun Apr 18, 2021 10:56 pm if the mafia kill me tonight then ill stop using the emoji

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Apr 18, 2021 10:41 pm If there's an inherited double kill I'm gonna be so sad