The Syndicate

A part of my brain just wants to meme all over this situation. I'm starting to understand Dizzy's point of view.

I'm going to hold off on voting until EoD.

Why are you preflipping Dya as a wolf?

I have to admit I'm whelmed by Alison's recent posting, even while taking into consideration the fact she's (presumably) not caught up.

Vulgard wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 10:56 am The - s are in chronological order.

Alison:

- Assumes that Gavial is "anti-town" rather than "mafia" in her very first post about Gavial. Calls his behavior NAI despite the presence of metareads in the thread at that point. (Nevermind that those meta reads were wrong, this is still important.)
- Calls Gavial "rand" and calls the people who vote for him based on him being anti-town "lazy."
- Claims Dizzy defending Gavial is a good look for Dizzy because it'd be a bad move for wolf!Dizzy regardless of Gavial's alignment. I actually agree with this point. Mentions that there's a solid chance of Gavial being a wolf.
- Responds to Amy's wolfread on Gavial by saying she isn't closed off to the possibility of Gavial being mafia.
- "I'm not ready to lock Gavial town." Weird progression jump there. It's like she's bouncing around a limbo where she sometimes implies Gavial's town and sometimes doesn't. This megahedge is odd.
- Calls Gavial's level of caring about the game NAI, thus continuing to refuse to call Gavial's alignment.
- Claims she isn't a Gavial expert.
- Continues to push the line that Gavial's NAI to her.
- Calls Gavial's VT claim kinda towny.

I... think this looks towny when viewed as a whole and in-context? KZA was the main CW yesterday, and KZA was a wolf. Alison spending the entire day refusing to call Gavial's alignment doesn't seem like a wolf play. I think she'd take one of two stances here: either bus or just push Gavial and listen to people's metareads. I'd even argue doing the latter benefits Alison more - not only does she get a misyeet, but she takes no blame for it, since she had given a lot of consideration toward Gavial's alignment and she wasn't the person with the mistaken metareads on Gavial. Her calling Gavial's VT claim "kinda towny" close to EoD also makes it more likely KZA gets yeeted, which prevents the wolves from getting a rolecop check. Their chances of getting it were tiny last night, since KZA was always getting vigged (they'd have to RB exactly the vig), and KZA would go day 2 anyway in that case. Still, it would be beneficial for the wolves (1 rolecop check is better than 0), and Alison didn't go for it. My impression of her wolfgame is that she knows what's optimal and what isn't. In that case, she didn't have much to lose by just accepting the Gavial push and joining it. In fact, her contrarian stance on Gavial is what got her scumread in the first place, yet another point in favor of Alison being town.

Might not be able to get all of these out, but I wanted to get this one out specifically.

If it were entirely up to me, I would start a case on Zack, but I don't have a coherent case against him beyond "I think he TMIed Gavial as V and his posts have been more underwhelming to me than the posts of most other players in this game" and that seems significantly less likely to lead to a hit than the literal dozens of claims leveraged against dya by players I townread. I could be right on Zack but that doesn't mean I can't vote dya. We do have three wolves alive and it's not like these two can't be W/W (as far as I can tell without a deep ISO dive, which I am NOT going to do unless dya flips red).

- Literally all my townreads are currently suspicious of Dya. Just look at the dya wagon formation.
- I think Alison is town and dya is the only current alternative. This is a less important point, because I could start a new train, but still.
- I don't want to defend a wolf for t0an like an idiot. My reasons to townread Dya are fairly nebulous. While I believe in them, I look at the arguments of several players why dya is a wolf and think they don't quite hold up. On day 1, I insisted on getting my wolfread killed above all else, despite Arete saying Gavial could've been a villager, and it backfired on me hard. It's possible dya is a wolf and I'm just not seeing it. Following the thread consensus at least this one time shouldn't cause major repercussions even if it is wrong.

I'm not going to go Alison because I think she's town. And I'm not confident enough on Sunbae/Zack/Visor to go in any of those directions. Dya it is, and I hope it's a hit.

Marluxion wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 5:16 am
Alison wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 8:08 pm
dyachei wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 8:03 pm
bronana wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 8:02 pm I'm not sure why amy and dya have to be aligned with each other at all
because alison is omgusing
I am yes.

I did not put Amy and you into a team together, I just said you two were my suspects.

Alison wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 8:09 pm I think in this specific state my OMGUSes are a lot more likely to be correct than usual so I would appreciate if people didn't brush it off as "oh she's just OMGUSing".
this is a v strange string of posts
it just doesnt feel genuine?

If you think Alison's posts are wolfy, is dya bussing Alison?

I'm becoming increasingly more partial to killing dya today.

Village:

Alison
Amy (IF she doesn't get counterclaimed)
Arete
Chloe
Dizzy
Marl
Nutella

Village with reservations:

c4 (I don't understand his POV sometimes and his progression on Gavial-related reads day 1 doesn't track in a really odd way.)
staypositivefriend (I have no concrete reasons to townread her beyond just liking her posts, vibing, and internally wanting her to be town so we can solve the game together.)

Leaving:

Dya (I'm going to sheep thread consensus on this one, especially if the other alternative is still just Alison)
Sunbae
Visor
Zack

Oh.

Well then, yeah, I was. Do you townread SPF?

Amy wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 3:22 am i do not think the PoE is w/w/w

i think zack/alison have w/w equity based off the timing of zack's vote on me; i know people thought zack/dya was a possible team earlier but i kinda don't wanna think that the only 2 people even remotely sharing my perspective itg are wolves?

i think spf's wack and dya/alison is like never in a million years a team, MAYBE reconsider that in lylo. maybe.

Elaborate on SPF, please. I have SPF as town for vague "I like her posts and I like SPF so I want her to be town" reasons but yes.

Arete wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 3:21 am
Vulgard wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 3:18 am
I've been thinking about Zack lately (no sexual).
I ... assume this is a typo ... but I have no idea what it's a typo for

It was a stupid joke, disregard that.

I think Alison, Arete, c4 (?), Chloe, Dizzy, Marl, Nutella, SPF (?) are villagers.

I am not as sure about dya. Zack/Visor/Sunbae are the remaining three players.

I'll 100% vote dya over Alison or Amy if she doesn't get CCed, mind you.

outed wolf wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 3:14 am so where do you want to look if you think the wagons are v/v then?

you have three wolves and neither are alison or dya?

I'm not sure?

I've been thinking about Zack lately (no sexual). The no visit result from Amy (assuming this doesn't get CC'd) makes him a bit less likely but yeah.

Also you but where I have some reasons for Zack I have no reasons for you other than distrust/paranoia.

I have the sinking feeling the wagons are v/v. I don't think Alison's a wolf but I also think dyachei's push on her came from a genuine place. I'll probably vote dyachei over Alison when it comes down to it, though, if the wagons don't change. I think my reasons for townreading them are worse than my reasons for townreading Alison.

A part of me wants Amy to get counterclaimed so that at least I wasn't wrong again.

I'm not CCing.

I think Marl is a villager for a reason completely unrelated to the supposed derpclear. I think his attempts to bang his head against the wall with annoyance over how he's being perceived when he's not in the focus of the thread are very villagery. It's like a villager who's trying to get into game but keps being gatekept for reasons he doesn't understand. It's possible I'm misframing this but that's how I interpret the situation.

Oh.

I still think Alison's a villager.

In essence, I don't think Amy's treatment of her dya and Alison reads is genuine because I can't track the thought process behind it very well.

Chloe wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 2:45 am people who have experience playing with alison:

would wolf!alison fake being unaware of when EoD is and self-pres without a PR claim? shes locked into a VT claim now pretty much
isnt she one of the people who thinks fakeclaiming PR for the cc or potential to live another day is almost always optimal or am i mixing her up with someone else

I'm somewhere between "how did you notice that, sus" and "does this just prove Alison is a villager?" I agree she'd probably fakeclaim PR as wolf if she thought she was going down. There's the option she faked not knowing when EoD was but yeah.

I think Alison's competent enough to do this as a wolf, but I still think she is a villager. @ Chloe

@ visor That part is weird because like. That's not what was happening day 1. Day 1 Amy had a few posts where it looked like she was pocketing dya and dya proceeded to townread her. Come today, Amy is now wolfreading Dya and Dya is townreading Amy. I'm not sure why she'd turn on someone who townreads her if she were a wolf, especially today, when far fewer people townread her. What would be the point of the day 1 thing then? It's possible she's following the thread's concerns about Dya in an effort to stay alive, but it seems counterproductive for wolf!Amy to do.

As for what it means about Dya, I don't know. I feel like townreading Amy in this situation is anti-wincon for their wolfgame, since they could just flip their read on Amy like Amy flipped her read on them. It would be justified. But then again, it literally doesn't matter to dya since dya's been insistent on pushing Alison all game. Besides, I've just checked ISOs and while Amy's shifting her read on Dya, Dya doesn't seem to be paying attention to it at all. I'm not sure if v!Dya ignores that.

There's also the fact you say Amy's wolfreading Dya, but Amy's currently voting on the same wagon as Dya.

Amy's wolfread on Alison is weird. Her only reasoning for putting her toward the bottom of her readlist (apparently) is that she isn't comfortable voting anywhere else. This was earlier during day 2. She also says that Alison is playing an underwhelming game if town. I... don't see many other explanations for why she even wolfreads Alison. She should be townreading Dya based on this mindset as well, since Dya is by far the strongest Alison pusher in this game and Amy calls an Alison vote her most comfortable vote. Her shifting her read on Dya should mean something for her Alison read as well, no? I'd be more okay with it if Amy straight up said the Alison voting was self-pres, but she claims to genuinely believe Alison is a likely wolf - yet I find it hard to find any arguments for it in her ISO. The read just looks fake and birthed from a self-preservation instinct.

I keep seeing "amy/dya" posts to the point I feel like it's distorting the thread.

Why are so many people's reads on Amy predicated on preflip pairings?

I'm not going to have time for meticulously going through ISOs today so I'll spend my remaining posts interacting in the thread and trying to figure out a consensus.

I feel like I have completely different reasons for voting Amy than everyone else does. Are other people on her wagon voting her because she's a better alternative than Alison, or because they're pairing her with dya or whoever?

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 8:03 pm @sunbae I found the things that made me tinfoil Dya/Vulgard.
May or may not be extremely dumb.

Vulgard wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 7:32 amI'm kinda townreading Dya for their consistent frustration over being scumread, but at the same time I can only mildly townread them for it for so long. This and their Alison scumread they've been repping for a while are the only things I remember Dya doing, while most other players have voiced reads on every other player in the game, done significant analysis, etc.
Using the word "repping" is interesting, because it doesn't signal to me a mindframe that it's a read Dya is having, but rather projecting.

However, first of all, lol language. And I also gathered that Vulgard, from what I understand, is not a native English speaker like myself. And I myself may misread the significance of this particular word here. But it crossed my mind.

Vulgard wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 11:32 am I think I've been fairly consistent in saying that you haven't been exclusively tunneling Alison, but that your read on Alison is definitely the highlight of your contributions so far. It's the first thing I associate with you in this game, outside of the constant defensive attitude. The defensive attitude part is something I could see being NAI based on how I saw you play as town sometimes, but yeah.

Speaking of reads outside of Alison, do the flips give you more reads outside of Alison? What do you think @ my townread of Alison?
Also this. I don't quite understand, because they say the defensive attitude could be NAI based on how they have seen Dya as town. Does this mean that Dya is not town here? Is it meant to say "based on how I saw you play as scum"? Am I reading this wrong or reading too much into this?

To be clear, I actually read Vulgard as more town. And I don't really have a read on Dya. But these are two things that crossed my mind, and they are very detailed, so it may just be me reading too much into things.

1. I definitely meant it as in "having." It's one of dya's two strongest reads day 1. If I meant it as in "projecting," I wouldn't be TRing them, since that would mean they didn't have any real scumreads on day 1 (I could easily apply this logic to Gavial in that world).
2. Nah, I meant what I said. The idea is "since I saw you doing this stuff as town it's not something necessarily wolf AI for you."

sunbae wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 7:35 pm As for some thoughts about things other than the common topic:

- I read through c4's iso again because I was having the nagging suspicion that they've just been kind of happy with the thread position and not trying to push things forward much today. I still feel that's accurate but I think it's more due to the fact that they are ... just happy with the thread position because it's their wolf reads being wagoned. Their posts through day one hit a wide variety of topics, often unprompted, and the way they jumped around from one thing to the next felt seamless and organic. I also still feel that some of the immediate responses of feeling ignored and flustered - along with the feeling of audacity that Alison could think they were a wolf for what they've been posting this game - comes from a villagers mindset rather than a performative wolf one.

- I am keeping Arete's stuff on Vul in the back of my mind because my initial response to Vul's posting this game phase was "This is not a person coming into the thread somewhat embarrassed about missing a god read". The posting Vul has brought today is something that reads fine but I can't shake the feeling that it's the type of busy work I do when I wolf where I show the long, post by post recap breakdown of individual cases as I go down the line of person to person. I feel like a lot of Vul's reads/presentations are just almost in isolation of anything else going on. Arete seems rather confident there and nobody else seems concerned, but I wanted to put it out there anyways.

- I wasn't huge on Tangrowth's posting down the stretch yesterday and I'm not really huge on Chloe's either. However, it does seem like a fair number of people are totally fine with the slot. Feel like letting Chloe get in the groove for the day was a fine place to start but I really haven't seen the wheels start to turn there the way I was hoping for.

I don't want to dwell on missing a godread. People are wrong in forum mafia, happens. And my reads look like they're in isolation to you probably because I spent more time doing ISOs than actually sitting in the thread. I disagree with the idea that I'm not paying attention to what's actually happening, though; this seems to be what you're implying here and it's not true at all.

Arete wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 8:17 pm the wording things Dizzy just pointed out are NAI at worst

like I am not Vulgard and he can correct me if I'm wrong but the thing about Dya repping a scumread is just ... him not endorsing the position that Dya believes it, rather than him endorsing the position that Dya doesn't believe it

and the defensive attitude post is like 'Dya has a defensive attitude [which would normally be wolfy] but they've done it before as town, so it could be NAI,' it has an implicitly encoded assumption that a defensive attitude is wolfy rather than an implicit assumption that Dya is a wolf

That's basically what I meant in both cases.

Arete wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 10:13 pm
Amy wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 10:09 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 10:06 pm i really relate to the feeling that everyone is kinda just solving by themselves in their own individual corner of the game, and i'd really like to play a role in creating a more cohesive/cooperative environment if i'm still here tomorrow. i think the gamestate is actually perfectly fine for the position we're in, but better cohesion/communication would help a lot
i've been trying my best to get people to talk to me and the results have been very... whelming. dunno if that's a consequence of my thread position or more indicative of the gamestate at large (or if i'm just not asking the right questions)

i think there's a pool of players who have found each other as town that need to be doing more with that than they currently are

@ chloe @ arete.
people: 'if you and another player are mutually finding each other as town you should do something with that'

me: 'ok. here are 30 posts on why Vulgard is a villager.'

people: 'no not like that'

eiagjeaogjakg

I'm starting to townread SPF for the sole reason that I like her posts and not because of anything she has done. Help.

I think the way dya pushed on Alison and the way Alison interacted back make them very unlikely to be a W/W pairing. I'm specifically looking at dya's word choice here, I've mentioned this before. They can be W/V but I really doubt W/W.

I understand that Alison hasn't done much today but I also think the reasons to townread her from day 1 (re: treatment of Gavial) hold up. I don't think wolf Alison would be playing like she is playing here.

I'm not sure about Amy at this point. Her townreading her accusers is... not what I expected, admittedly. I'm not sure how to read that. She had some odd interactions with dya and her treatment of Gavial was strangely tunneled, but I also townread her hard early day 1 and I'm trying to reconcile how that makes sense together with the wolfread I walked away from her ISO with.

I also think Tangy was 100% a villager. I village cased her already and I'll do that again if I have to, but I think her posts day 1 have actually been excellent past a certain point.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 6:03 pm A general note, that I don't quite trust mine or other's "tone reads", especially if it is a tone read that makes people lean town. Because there's so many good players in this game, and I think few of us - this is including me - actually have any problem with "tone" as wolves. If you know the person in question has difficulties with this, it's of course different.

That's fair.

I really should go to sleep.

outed wolf wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 5:55 pm Just take the opposite of whatever vulgard thinks

Ez game

I really hope it's not one of these games. Especially after the Gavial thing.

Vulgard wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 5:54 pm
outed wolf wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 5:33 pm
Vulgard wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 5:20 pm I've been paying attention to Visor reads and I'm noticing several people townreading him for no reason. Would appreciate someone giving me actual reasons to sheep the thread consensus on this.
Sorry for party villaging

Idk why you have so much trouble villa reading me lmao
The towniest post I've seen from you is the post calling me wrong in big letters and making fun of me for that. And that's only because it was very funny.

Other than that, I haven't been able to find you yet, if you are town.

Arete wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 5:42 pm
Vulgard wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 12:21 pm
Vulgard wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 7:56 am Visor is a wolf.

I do not have an argument to back this up.

Discuss.
I actually did want people to discuss this because I personally have no idea how to read him as of right now and it's day 2.
I kind of thought that the bit where I asked him why he was trying to discredit you and he started going on about how you had been WRONG in all capital letters and weird formatting was villagery, I think a wolf usually wouldn't be so gratuitous about it

Mindmeld.

outed wolf wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 5:33 pm
Vulgard wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 5:20 pm I've been paying attention to Visor reads and I'm noticing several people townreading him for no reason. Would appreciate someone giving me actual reasons to sheep the thread consensus on this.
Sorry for party villaging

Idk why you have so much trouble villa reading me lmao

The towniest post I've seen from you is the post calling me wrong in big letters and making fun of me for that. And that's only because it was very funny.

Other than that, I haven't been able to find you yet, if you are town.

dyachei:

- Seems baffled by how polarized Gavial's meta is portrayed to be. I see no earlier mentions of Gavial in their ISO.
- Disagrees with Dizzy shielding Gavial. Claims that Gavial is antitown at minimum, if not outright wolfy. Does not say Gavial is a wolf, mind you.
- Doubles down on that take. Claims they are unsure what Gavial's play means for his alignment. Is familiar with Gavial's polarized meta (comments on it in their first post about Gavial), yet still says this. Doesn't really seem convinced Gavial is mafia - or that he is town.
- Claims they are trying to determine whether Gavial is a wolf or not when responding to Alison's take that his behavior has been NAI so far. A little odd considering they are already suspecting Alison at this point (agreeing with Alison's take on Gavial while wolfreading Alison), but hey. Occam's Razor tells me this is just honest evaluation on dya's end.
- Calls Alison wolfier than Gavial. I don't see a real progression here, or any progression at all, for that matter. This post also implies dya now thinks Gavial is wolfy, so. I'm not sure if this is a thing I should seriously take issue with, but the fact dya hasn't called anyone a wolf yet (just "wolfy") doesn't sit right with me. It wasn't the case with the other ISOs I've read. Then again, I scumread some of the people I've ISOd today, and they've called people wolves like normal, so...
- Outright says that Gavial/Alison is W/V. Really weird preflip in my opinion. It seems to be predicated on the idea Alison's treatment of Gavial is TMIng Gavial town (though dya had admitted they found Gavial wolfy). I... kinda see where they're coming from, but this seems like a very bold read to make day 1, considering you are making two implications here. One: thread consensus of Gavial metareaders is wrong and Gavial is a wolfy villager. Two: Alison is mafia for her treatment of him. Correct me if that's not the viewpoint being presented. This stands out as a pretty contrarian take and towny in a vacuum, I'm just iffy about how readily dya came to that conclusion when we didn't even see Gavial's flip.
- Claims that if Alison flips V, Gavial is a wolf, independently of whatever Alison herself thought about him (the thought being that his behavior is NAI). Also has a post before this that says word for word: "because neither of you are villagery. you least of all" @ Alison and Gavial not being V/V. I think that's very towny snark right there, especially since dya's addressing Alison. If dya's a wolf addressing v!Alison, I don't think they choose this language and approach there, especially this early in the game. If dya's a wolf addressing w!Alison, I don't think this approach is made at all. Dya presents a fairly consistent perspective that there is always at least one wolf between Alison and Gavial, but while Alison's treatment of Gavial might make her a wolf (and it makes her the more likely wolf in dya's eyes), Gavial's independently wolfy enough that with v!Alison he can still be mafia. I think this perspective is fine. I disagree with the Alison scumread, since I've already explained how her treatment of Gavial doesn't make sense to me as something that comes from mafia, but I can see why dya believes what they believe here. It looks genuine to me, while also being contrarian and not the approach I'd envision dya taking if they're a wolf looking to push a misyeet.
- Maintains that the wolfread on Gavial is a meta thing and continues to push her perspective re: Gavial/Alison, I am not going to repeat it here.
- Outright tells Alison that they aren't going to take her read into account in a world where she flips green, straight into her face. I still think it's towny. It's not an overly reasonable/overly tunnely approach I could see a wolf taking. It's extremely snarky and has this underlying confidence behind it that I like. If dya's a wolf after all, well done with this push because I really think it's towny despite me disagreeing with it. I'm probably awarding dya too many townpoints for this, but yeah.
- Gavial and Alison are the bottom two reads on dya's readlist.
- Pushes Gavial instead. I'm not sure why dya's choosing to push Gavial instead of Alison here. Maybe since an Alison d1 yeet isn't happening.
- Gets into a scuffle with Gavial with implied personal insults involved. I think that's also villagery. I think a wolf wouldn't take this approach against someone they are currently misyeeting and do it without qualms. Dya barrels out with this pretty much straight out the gate, not after Gavial annoyed them or anything.
- Tries to reconcile their Alison and Gavial reads.
- Swaps to KZA at the end, didn't really see a visible progression there. Potentially justifiable by using the logic "I now think Alison is wolfier and if Alison is W then Gavial is V and I need to vote off the Gavial wagon," but I don't see any sign in the thread that would explain why dya switched their vote there. Them voting Alison at the start of day 2 seems consistent with their POV at least.

Overall, while dya's POV has seemed pretty narrow so far, I actually like the way they are approaching the Alison push even though I disagree with it. I think their treatment of Alison/Gavial has been fine and decently inquisitive. I can see how people wolfread their approach considering the tone dya's taking, but I think the snark and aggression where it doesn't exactly seem warranted is village indicative. I could see people going "Vulgard why are you townreading a bad tone" but it's not a point I'm willing to debate because I just do.

I also don't see anything on dya's end that would directly indicate w!dya's partnered with Amy - outside of dya calling Amy their top town, I suppose, but it could be taken both ways.

I think dya's a villager.

For clarity I'm not saying they all have to be partners or the exact team, I just have the most reservations about their play so far.

I think dya/Alison being V/V is somewhat realistic. Amy/Zack/Visor are the main group I'm looking at right now because I'm familiar with their ISOs. Amy in particular seemed to be subtly pocketing dya on day 1 and that's part of the reason why I'm voting her. I could see that being a W/W interaction as I addressed earlier but it looked more pockety to me.

That said, I'm saying this without having evaluated everyone's ISOs yet. I want to get dya's ISO done before I go to sleep, so I'll go do that now.

I've been paying attention to Visor reads and I'm noticing several people townreading him for no reason. Would appreciate someone giving me actual reasons to sheep the thread consensus on this.

I'm not really sold on Alison being mafia for reasons I've already stated. I'm also waiting for her to post today.

Let's take it from a different direction.

Who do you think is town, nutella?

And by the way, if I don't respond to someone that doesn't mean I'm not acknowledging their responses. It's a light game with a postcap and I'm trying to be mindful of it.

Wait, sorry. That wasn't your vote. Disregard that.

Are you okay with her getting yeeted today considering you agreed with my points about her being town based off treatment of Gavial?

nutella wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 4:49 pm @Alison pls come play

if you're town you're in that special poe position where your view of the game is important to hear about. do you wanna do the thing where you leave a legacy, we flip you, and if you're green we sheep your solve?

Wait, didn't you just support my Alison townread and wolfread Dya for opposing it? Why are you voting Alison now? And why are you pinging her if you currently think she's a wolf?

c4e5g3d5:

- Asks for ways to read Gavial.
- Claims Gavial is plain bad but ignoring him is "low-risk." I have no idea what he means by that.
- Puts Gavial at the bottom of his readlist. ...What? Where is the progression there? There are no other mentions of Gavial in his ISO beforehand, other than the ones I listed above. His top townread is also Sunbae (next to me), but he has absolutely no progression on this townread. He hadn't even said "sunbae town" beforehand in his ISO. I have no idea how he got there.
- Claims that Alison's treatment of Gavial is "irresponsible at best, hard agenda'd at worst" because she's "steering first, evaluating later." Okay, but... I didn't get that impression from her treatment of Gavial whatsoever. How was it agenda'd? She was literally just calling his stuff NAI. Not calling him mafia, not calling him town, but consistently claiming his behavior is NAI. That's not agenda, that's hardlining a nullread, which... I suppose there are some worlds in which you could consider that agenda, but maintaining a nullread on day 1, despite it being on a polarized player, doesn't feel like agenda to me. Maybe we have different ways of approaching the game, but this line of thinking from c4 strikes me as odd. I guess it's possible he's just tunneled, but.
- Implies in the next post about Gavial that he thinks Gavial is just mafia. He underlines the fact Gavial's partners can treat him in any way they want and that it wouldn't be consequential, and also claims there isn't any cred to be found for this pelt. I think this is a towny approach to Gavial, because it comes from the premise of a lack of TMI. I doubt a wolf wastes their time writing a post that says "anyone can be aligned with Gavial, also there's no cred for bussing him" when Gavial is going to flip town, rendering the entire post useless for agenda purposes. It looks more like a villager who genuinely thinks Gavial is a wolf and doesn't want wolves to get cred for bussing him or taking contrarian/surprising stances regarding him.
- Makes a preflip read that Alison is mafia and Dya is town if Gavial is a villager. The read is made based on a post by Gavial where he doesn't want people to push Alison and wants to push Dya. ...I have no idea why he's following Gavial's reads, since the post is basically sheeping Gavial's reads. He showed a mindset implying Gavial is mafia before, so why is he taking Gavial's reads seriously here? From c4's POV, Gavial's reads should be fake. He had just talked about the idea that people shouldn't consider anyone's treatment of Gavial "unaligning," clearly implying that c4 thinks Gavial is mafia. But here, just two posts later, he reads Gavial's posts and thinks "hmm, if town!Gavial doesn't want to push Alison but wants to push Dya, then Alison must be mafia and Dya must be town." It would make more sense if he said "if Gavial w then Alison w dya v," since that would at least be a logical connection given Gavial's post, but the way it is written, it makes no sense to me. I guess it could be a meme, but c4 doesn't treat it as such in any of his following posts and it's not obvious that it's a joke, so I'm taking it seriously. It's a completely wacky post to write if you think Gavial is mafia, which is the POV c4 had presented just two posts ago. It's indicative of c4's view of Gavial being inconsistent in a really weird way.
- Claims he's not going to push on dya unless Gavial flips green. ...But he had previously said that Gavial V = dya V. So how does this follow whatsoever? Also noting the fact he maintains the townreads on me and Sunbae, but never explains either. His only explanation is that we are "just town" which I find lacking.

Overall, c4 has an inconsistent POV on Gavial that leaves me utterly confused. The highlight of it is the post where he claims Gavial V means Alison W Dya V. He never corrects himself on this, never treats it like a joke, doesn't PHRASE it like a joke, so I assume he meant it. And if he meant it, it renders his progression on Gavial inconsistent. He had treated Gavial like a mafia member before that, but then he wrote a post where he took Gavial's reads seriously. It was when mafia!Gavial would be in antispew, and c4, who was apparently wolfreading Gavial very strongly to the point of suspecting Alison based on her treatment of him, should know this.

I don't know how to read that. It's a really weird mistake to make if you're a wolf, but I also don't see the progression if c4 is a villager. If I remove that post from the equation, c4's treatment of Gavial is ~fine, but that one post destabilizes things a bit.

I'm not claiming it's mutually exclusive, I'm claiming it's a backtrack so he doesn't accidentally clear someone / align himself with someone in the world where Dizzy is his wolf partner. I find it odd how he reaches the conclusion Dizzy is probably town then walks it back a bit once questioned. I didn't even suspect him for it (I just asked to hear his thought process), yet he walked it back in a way that looks instinctual.

Amy, why is Visor town?

@dyachei Here:

bronana wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 4:29 am
Vulgard wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 4:20 am
bronana wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 8:08 pm gotta say if dizzy is a wolf i don't see the point of going to bat so vociferously for gavial like this, regardless of gavial's alignment
I don't see a point either, but can you walk me through your thought process?
at the time i was thinking a wolf would probably either bus to some degree or try to subtly steer the yeet elsewhere (if gav is a wolf), or encourage the wagon or at least not get in the way if he's town. Thinking about it now though I think it could make some sense as a TMI white knighting of a villager, or just some other kind of brazen play. Tangentially related, I'm a little worried that people cleared dizzy way too easily.

I am definitely not going to get through everyone at this rate but PLEASE address my Zack read.

Also address my plea for people to help me read Visor.

Bronana / Zack:

- First take on Gavial is that his posts didn't make any impression.
- Notes that Gavial seems to have a polarized meta but doesn't comment on it beyond that.
- Claims Gavial would get bussed hard if he was a wolf. ...For some reason, I dislike this comment. It looks TMI-ish to me, even though the actual wording is fine. I'll bring it up here for clarity.

bronana wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 5:17 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 5:03 pm
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 5:02 pm If you believe Gavial is mafia, we should chop someone on his wagon right now. There will be mafia there if Gavial is mafia.
how does that work?
I came into this game gavial would get bussed hard if he's a wolf, based on how his meta has been described.

Plus any random grouping of five players has approximately a 75% chance of having at least one wolf, if my math is right.

Spoiler: show

1 - (13 / 17)^5 = 73.85% of at least one wolf

if you want to assume "I am town and I am not one of those five players" = 1 - (12 / 16)^5 = 76.3% of at least one wolf

There are some underlying assumptions about votes on a wagon being independent events which isn't really true, but whatever, close enough. Been awhile since I took any stats or probability courses though. Yes this a useless post a wolf could easily make, sue me.

- Immediately followed by asking Gavial... this. I'm going to quote this post as well, so I can check if other people see what I'm seeing. I get the impression these two posts are TMI on Gavial being a villager, even though the actual wording looks fine.

bronana wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 5:20 pm
Gavial wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 5:18 pm Why do I have 5 players voting me?
Not that I really care much anyway since I’m multi-balling and I’m only VT.
Just a shame people don’t like me that much.
dude what is this weaksauce

where's the seth that's like "these are the wolves BLAM these are the town BAM im a GOD sheep me" ?

I really think this is Zack talking to someone he knows is a villager and checking if he's going to damn himself further or not.

- Calls Gavial outright mafia after this.
- Dya is the other wolfread at the time.
- Claims he doesn't see the point of Dizzy treating Gavial like they did regardless of Gavial's alignment. It's a sentiment I actually share and it's a major reason why I townread Dizzy. That said, I'm not sure if Zack is the person who came out with this take first, and I also find it decently likely this could come from a wolf, so I'm not awarding him many townpoints for it.
- Bounces off Amy's wolfread on Gavial and agrees (and reiterates) that Gavial is playing nothing like his towngame.
- I ask about his take on Dizzy implying Dizzy isn't a wolf because of their odd treatment of Gavial. Zack responds to it, and the response is FINE, but he writes an addendum that "he's a little worried that people cleared Dizzy way too easily." I dislike this. It's hedgy, and it also reads like "I think this points to Dizzy being town (treatment of Gavial) but they also don't deserve an easy clear so don't actually call them locktown please." I didn't notice this on my first reading, but I think it's wolfy now, unless Dizzy is a wolf (I don't think wolf!Zack adds this comment if he was talking about his partner Dizzy rather than v!Dizzy; he can just rep a townread without consequence, boosting his teammate's position in the game).
- Claims Gavial is doing nothing.
- Claims Gavial and KZA are his top wolfreads when Nutella asks him about... dya. When it comes to Dya, Zack apparently has no idea anymore, since he posted a shrug emoji.
- Has no idea what KZA is even posting, which is something I actually vibed with back when I saw it. Could see this being W/W with KZA, though. It isn't actually calling KZA mafia, it's more like a sign of confusion/exasperation/whatever.
- Wonders about Arete potentially townreading Gavial.
- Asks SPF about potential bussers of Gavial. Noting here that SPF is actually saying she's 70% confident Gavial's mafia, not 100%. Basically preflipping Gavial as mafia here, assuming the question is even genuine.
- Keeps discussing how nonsensical KZA's treatment of Gavial is. It looks pretty decent in a vacuum since he's discussing a wolf's nonsensical posting. The fact he's following up on his prior suspicion is a good look, I don't see him visibly pushing on KZA, though. I'm noting the absence of concern over Gavial's alignment; he does ask Arete why they're potentially TRing Gavial (that's the implication of their singular "oh?" aimed at Arete) but doesn't follow it up with any behavioral change or anything.
- Votes Gavial despite discussing KZA's nonsensical treatment of Gavial for a while. ...Hm.

Overall, I have several points of concern. The treatment of Gavial looks decent overall, but there are several points where I suspect Zack has TMI on Gavial being a villager, particularly in the two posts I put in quotes. There's also the little interaction we had about his read on Dizzy @ Dizzy's treatment of Gavial, where it felt like he didn't want Dizzy to be too townread from it despite voicing the townlean himself. He also has a profound lack of interest in Gavial, particularly after it became clear Gavial was going to be yeeted day 1. He does question KZA a fair bit, but never pushes for KZA over Gavial. He seems surprisingly content about the state of affairs, neither committing to the Gavial yeet too hard (outside of quietly supporting it) nor trying to get KZA yeeted (though he did call KZA's train of thought incomprehensible).

I still think Zack could be town despite this. It's possible I misattributed signs of TMI to his posts there, particularly since I admit the language itself shouldn't be concerning. But I still get the impression that he's just mafia.

Nutella is among us my strongest village reads in this game and the worst part is that I couldn't explain it if I tried.

Inb4 I dive into her ISO and I'm like "wait but actually she isn't."

I feel like my Arete read just above is messier than the others, because I'm trying to rationalize thinking they are a villager when really I just feel it in my soul.

Amy wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 2:49 pm just woke up have skimmed

@Vulgard re: my vote on alison, i kinda don't see how that supports me being a wolf in a world where everyone is pairing me with dya? like... that's the single vote that looks worst in that world lol. wolf!amy has more threadstate awareness than that

@outed wolf re: getting snowed, I'm pretty clearly running out of wolfreads that i feel anywhere resembling good about, which is a sign that SOMEONE is fooling me. "one wolf dead" is pretty whatever when that wolf was low hanging fruit who barely has more meaningful associatives than gav, if at all. I'm allowed to feel bad about where my reads are at regardless of what the scoreboard looks like >_>

@Chloe re: marl, yeah i think the derpclear's just real shrug

busier than i remembered today, will be in and out

Fair point which is why I'm not too focused on building associatives / wolfreading you based on that vote alone. The vote tipped me off a lot but it didn't spark the actual wolfread/case I built.

Arete:

- Initially calls Gavial "probably just a wolf" but isn't sure. Provides meta on Gavial.
- Reiterates that Gavial is still wolfy, but isn't 100% sure about it and lists "don't want to be tunneled back by him if he's town" as one of the reasons for this.
- Doesn't like Alison's stance on Gavial. I don't really understand the reasoning why but I read it as genuine consideration.
- Claims that they think Gavial might be badly attempting to spew them as their partner. I think this is very unlikely to come from a wolf, Arete or not, since it's referring to someone they know is a villager in that world. I... doubt a wolf would come up with "they are trying to spew me as their partner?" Even if you claim a wolf would do this to absolve themselves from blame for the yeet, most of the thread was wolfreading Gavial, so that doesn't really work in context.
- Notices that Gavial is getting townier but is apprehensive about it for "where do we go from here" reasons. Notably, does not harddefend Gavial, but still says this.
- Claims that Gavial wouldn't make spectator reads as a wolf. Arete continues to go out of their way to defend Gavial, but doesn't strongarm it. I'm torn whether mafiaRete would do this for towncred. It's a fairly consistent stance they have throughout their ISO, but they didn't really try very hard to prevent the misyeet from happening.
- Wants to continue giving Gavial time so he can become obvtown if he's town.
- Continually claims they think Gavial is >rand town but aren't going to fight the yeet. I think, much like in the case of Alison, it benefits wolf!Arete more to take one of two stances here: either just kill Gavial or bus KZA. They do talk about KZA briefly, calling him >rand wolf and likening his play to the "uninspired d1 by t0an and/or volume" meme which I think is 100% within their scumrange to do.

This doesn't prove to me they aren't partnered. I think wolf!Arete might briefly hedge on Gavial because they can't decide on how to treat Gavial, whether correctly defending him is a better approach than pushing the misyeet through. What I DON'T think wolf!Arete does is openly hedge on Gavial's alignment for the entire day, kinda slightly calling him town but never strongly enough to shift the yeet away. Even taking into consideration the fact KZA was a wolf PR and a counterwagon option, I think wolf!Arete's self-awareness wouldn't let them hedge on the misyeet in the making in all of their posts. They'd just commit to something.

They explain their standpoint on d2, claiming that misyeeting Gavial didn't seem like such a bad thing to them (lol), that they weren't too confident because of other people's confidence about Gavial being mafia, and that if Gavial was mafia then committing to a hard defense would make Arete look partnered with him. The first would be a really bold claim from mafia!Arete and I don't think they have the guts for it. The second is something I can't quite envision mafia!Arete doing because mafia!Arete is more than ready to push some agenda. While mafia!Arete could lie about this, I think their overall attitude points toward them being just town. And the third reason is something I don't want to delve into.

TL;DR Based on the treatment of Gavial I'm still leaning Arete town, because I think it would be unusual for their wolfplay to approach Gavial like they did, as mafia.

By the way, I've wolfed with Alison twice. She was LW one time, but still. I've already mentioned this before. Alison may be a smart player, but I think assuming she always pulls 300 IQ gigabrain plays is fallacious.

Will get back to my hunting in 30 minutes or so. Expect most of my content to come out today because tomorrow I'll be busy all day. Should be able to swap my vote if needed, though.

I'll definitely try my hand at it later but I want to hear other people's opinions first.

Vulgard wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 7:56 am Visor is a wolf.

I do not have an argument to back this up.

Discuss.

I actually did want people to discuss this because I personally have no idea how to read him as of right now and it's day 2.

We should play together more often.

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