The Syndicate

Scotty wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 8:38 pm
Thunal33 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 8:27 pm
Scotty wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 8:16 pm
Thunal33 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 8:11 pm @Scotty this is the game where Rico stepped up a lot d3.

viewtopic.php?t=2526

He put in more effort d1 and d2 than he did here, but it was still a huge effort difference once he decided to pick it up.
Lol I even modded that game. I truly don’t even remember it.

So I see the patented, well-formatted breakdowns he did in D1, but outside of that, it seems like a completely different rico. I wonder if he replicates that sort of deepdive thing as bad. I would assume he would just to keep up appearances.

Obviously the idea here is that he just hasn’t had time to devote to this game until just now, I just find the timing fishy.
He did say he went to a concert, but his uptick was in part game motivated regardless because he even said "now there's a shot i kinda wanna play". I think either he was energized by a mafia flip or he was making a last stand effort and I'm leaning the former. I still don't think wolf Rico believes voting Epi is a winning strategy. After doing nothing for 2 phases and being floated often as an elim option, I really doubt he believes he could deepwolf and get 3 mislims.
If wolf Rico doesn’t do that, what other strategy do you see him employing that he can feasibly get to the end?

Because all I see is fodder that has to eventually get eliminated

Assuming wolf Rico didn't play the game the first 2 phases, I think if he had voted me and then put in effort d3 he'd still have a shot at surviving longer. They'd only need to get 2 mislims and they would have 2 people to do it. Epi's only interaction with Rico was also a decent look for him. It gave me the tone of "why elim me when you could elim Rico".

Syn wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 8:32 pm
Thunal33 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 8:06 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 1:43 am I am probably going to vote for Scotty

@Thunal33 I think the seemingly too on the nose hard defense route is actually quite plausible for Epi to take.

On the other hand I also thought the "Syn - purple" was a bad look, not a good one.

It is between the two for sure. I think Scotty feels more like a wolf by play today (and find him overall easier to retrofit as wolf than syn). Plus there was the prior confidence I had on him d2 for... some other reason. And my prior confidence was right on Epi so might as well listen to it again.
It's certainly possible re: the hard defense. About the Syn being purple, it's a small thing that some wolves tend to have a hard time singling out their partner in a readslist but Epi might be willing to do that.

I'm currently leaning that Syn looks worse from recent interactions.
you should vote me then

do I have to start pretending to lolcat to make this happen or something. why is it so hard to reason with you all

any time I explain the thought process it just gets ignored until someone else inevitably chimes in with another case on me (cheers for that rico), proving the thought process correct repeatedly. time that could have been spent on doing something actually useful for town

you even quoted the explanation after this post! are the men in black cornering each and every one with you with a neuralyzer to make you forget my posts right after reading them. is agent j around. can i speak with him

I'll decide who to vote later. I'd like to find the wolf and if I read someone as wolf with reasonable confidence, I want to vote them.

How do you currently feel on Rico, Scotty? Because I have a concern that you're trying to expand the PoE by including him.

Scotty wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 8:16 pm
Thunal33 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 8:11 pm @Scotty this is the game where Rico stepped up a lot d3.

viewtopic.php?t=2526

He put in more effort d1 and d2 than he did here, but it was still a huge effort difference once he decided to pick it up.
Lol I even modded that game. I truly don’t even remember it.

So I see the patented, well-formatted breakdowns he did in D1, but outside of that, it seems like a completely different rico. I wonder if he replicates that sort of deepdive thing as bad. I would assume he would just to keep up appearances.

Obviously the idea here is that he just hasn’t had time to devote to this game until just now, I just find the timing fishy.

He did say he went to a concert, but his uptick was in part game motivated regardless because he even said "now there's a shot i kinda wanna play". I think either he was energized by a mafia flip or he was making a last stand effort and I'm leaning the former. I still don't think wolf Rico believes voting Epi is a winning strategy. After doing nothing for 2 phases and being floated often as an elim option, I really doubt he believes he could deepwolf and get 3 mislims.

Scotty wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 8:12 pm
Thunal33 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 8:06 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 1:43 am I am probably going to vote for Scotty

@Thunal33 I think the seemingly too on the nose hard defense route is actually quite plausible for Epi to take.

On the other hand I also thought the "Syn - purple" was a bad look, not a good one.

It is between the two for sure. I think Scotty feels more like a wolf by play today (and find him overall easier to retrofit as wolf than syn). Plus there was the prior confidence I had on him d2 for... some other reason. And my prior confidence was right on Epi so might as well listen to it again.
It's certainly possible re: the hard defense. About the Syn being purple, it's a small thing that some wolves tend to have a hard time singling out their partner in a readslist but Epi might be willing to do that.

I'm currently leaning that Syn looks worse from recent interactions.
What about his interactions Ping you?

I read his posts about wanting to die as performative. He spent so much energy talking about that he's not a wolf but he still wants to die that my instinct was that he was doing reverse psychology. I'm not so confident about that now that I've caught up because this post read as genuine to me:

Syn wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 10:35 am
what is with this disingenuous rewriting of my behaviour today? first scotty, now you? I have poked at ISOs, mused on behaviours, but the only thing that gets brought up is "sacrificial lamb" when I have very clearly explained the logic of my approach and nobody has been able to actually argue against that logic except by throwing shade and mocking me. scotty makes sense why he'd do that, but I don't grok why you would hop on that train as well

"reverse psychology" when it's other people going "hmm maybe I will vote elsewhere actually " which just means if you end up picking someone else, and they flip green, we'll just be back here tomorrow doing this entire "oh maybe it's syn!!!!!" thing again and wasting time until F3. every minute spent being paranoid about me is a minute spent not actually hunting the wolf, and in a mountainous game and with these interactions, it's extremely unlikely that I talk my way back into a solid town read. and the effort required to do so, again, means it's effort not going into finding the wolf.

I have no idea how I can explain the logic better so that people understand it, and it is frankly baffling

stop tinfoiling me. remove "syn could be a wolf after all" from your mind. embrace that I am the pick for today, and solve for who is left with that in mind. it limits the maneuverability of the wolf and completely eliminates an entire avenue of WIFOM and chaos. we have the leeway to make this choice today, but we do not tomorrow. a wolf can do a lot for their own survival if the longevity of my slot is up for debate. remove the debate. force them into navigating a world they are likely uncomfortable with.

@Scotty this is the game where Rico stepped up a lot d3.

viewtopic.php?t=2526

He put in more effort d1 and d2 than he did here, but it was still a huge effort difference once he decided to pick it up.

nutella wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 1:43 am I am probably going to vote for Scotty

@Thunal33 I think the seemingly too on the nose hard defense route is actually quite plausible for Epi to take.

On the other hand I also thought the "Syn - purple" was a bad look, not a good one.

It is between the two for sure. I think Scotty feels more like a wolf by play today (and find him overall easier to retrofit as wolf than syn). Plus there was the prior confidence I had on him d2 for... some other reason. And my prior confidence was right on Epi so might as well listen to it again.

It's certainly possible re: the hard defense. About the Syn being purple, it's a small thing that some wolves tend to have a hard time singling out their partner in a readslist but Epi might be willing to do that.

I'm currently leaning that Syn looks worse from recent interactions.

I've been gone all day today and I'll only be able to give input in a few hours.

Scotty wrote: ↑Sat Aug 12, 2023 10:54 pm I think SVS and Thunal make up the towncore at this stage.
I’d almost throw falcon in there too.

Syn seems to be the obvious choice. Everything points to Syn, and hell, even Syn admits to it.

It’s a little too on the nose. He’s still in the POE tho:
Scotty wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 1:24 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 1:17 pm I'm too soft. I don't want to snapvote Scotty anymore.

Holding Epi to the fire for the rest of the day.
So look, I’ve said my peace. And I have 2 posts left. If people still want to vote me while I’m gone I’ve talked a lot and I won’t feel bad if I do go over without me even being around.

If Epi goes over today, and is wolf, I’m looking at Syn and Thunal as partners.
If Epi wolf, falcon is almost never wolf here imo. This goes with both not having read the rules, and I already surmise one mafia is paying attention.
I stand by my falcon read. But this puts a (slight) wrinkle in my rico suspicion. It could be that one or both rico/Epi have been paying attention.
Ricochet wrote: ↑Tue Aug 08, 2023 4:33 pm sorry for not posting, but I think I know who I’m voting and that’s marmot. it seems marmot was trying to get there way then when everyone found that out marmot tried to say that they were just saying what they thought. That’s why I’m voting [VOTE: marmot. ] aubergine
this post, while rushed and concise, at least shows that he has paid a modicum of attention to the thread enough to note something marmot was doing.

I thought it was odd but not necessarily wolfy. It's not impossible that it's Rico but he looks pretty good because he had the deciding vote. I would have been a pretty high value and time critical mislim, and Rico doesn't even have to be following to know I'd look good if Epi died. My one experience with Rico he gave some thoughts but had a slow start, and then later he got interested in the game and put in a bunch of effort as town.

Epi spew ISO:

Spoiler: show

Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Aug 07, 2023 11:01 pm
Scotty wrote: ↑Mon Aug 07, 2023 12:51 am
Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Aug 07, 2023 12:42 am Now that Sean has left, I do think Scotty's townie.

I think his observation on Epi is the towniest thing in the thread thus far. For a bit, I thought his posts fell into the "posting performatively for the sake of it" camp, but his observation on Epi was pretty insightful and while I think he could match the tone as a wolf there, I don't think he would necessarily match the reasoning there is a wolf.

Scotty town.
My posts are always performative. I’m an actor

Q: do you think Epignosis would, as mafia, make such a flagrant error as to come in with big steel balls having not read the rules and then announcing that he is a ‘moron’?
Was it an error?

Slight bad look for Scotty that Epi felt comfortable asking that to him.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Aug 08, 2023 12:11 am Just kidding. I have posts to burn.

It was this post:

nutella wrote: ↑Mon Aug 07, 2023 5:56 pm Town brad is loud about his reads and makes it clear that they have reasons even if they're silly reasons. Lime's approach to me here was to simply ignore the request for any actual reasoning after I pointed out that his reasoning was nonsensical. People other than me might just not notice what he was doing as so egregious, but from where I'm sitting it sure felt like he made up justifications for his readlist and had no vested interest in backing them up when prompted. He was flippant, and flippancy does not always necessarily equal wolfiness, but I cannot locate a town motivation for his behavior.
There's so much "BURY THIS GUY (but but but)."

I think nutella is looking for an easy mark (no offense, Lime Coke)

Slightly good look for Nutella.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 9:33 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 5:47 pm Y'all should have voted Epi. Perhaps we should do that today in honor of Dizzy.
I'm not mafia and I think you know that. But knock yourself out.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 9:36 pm
Scotty wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 6:19 pm Sorry about the condescension- I’m just kinda disappointed we just lost our PRs with no real trade off and dealing with the fact that there’s nothing to solve any more and I’ve now been tricked into playing a mountainous game. I hate mountainous
Scotty isn't mafia.

This is when Epi starts townreading Scotty.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 10:03 pm
Syn wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 10:01 pm
Epignosis wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 9:58 pm nutella is my top pick to go today. Discuss.
why
I said discuss. Not ask questions.

Slight - for Syn.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 10:22 pm
Syn wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 10:14 pm
her reaction to the LC situation was townie IMO

if she's your TOP pick, there must be a reason
I'm working on the post. Hold your horses.

Slight good look for Syn.

Spoiler: show

Epignosis wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 10:34 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Tue Aug 08, 2023 1:54 pm It could be marmot. I don't love their reactions/progressions. On the other hand they kinda seem organic.
It could be Marmot.

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Aug 08, 2023 1:54 pm
I did not love Epi's posturing during the shit fest either. Felt like he was bullying me, possibly from a position of TMI on Lime.
It could be me.

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Aug 08, 2023 1:54 pmI do not know why Dizzy and SVS are being dismissed. They are both well within their scum ranges and I'd prefer if more people seriously scrutinized them rather than tossing their names to the side for no apparent reason. It would kind of be an elim out of fear but it kinda feels like the alternative is shrugyeeting the 1 poster.
It could be S~V~S or Dizzy.

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Aug 08, 2023 1:54 pmThunal, Seanzie, and Scotty I would say are townreads atm with some paranoia. Thunal maybe slightly more likely wolf meta than the other two.
It could be these three people ("some paranoia").

I view this as nutella leaving her options as open as they can be. She lost Lime Coke in his revelation.

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Aug 08, 2023 1:54 pm
So my preferences are something like
One of Dizzy/Epi - I would like to see these flips the most. I kind of think they are as close as we have to a Macdougall patented difference check. If there isn't a wolf in Dizzy/Epi then I recuse myself from having any grasp on this whole damn game lol. Maybe there isn't much basis for that but vibes.
If nutella is a civilian, I don't understand the basis for pairing Dyslexicon and me together in this manner and then excusing herself from figuring anything out further when she is proven incorrect.

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Aug 08, 2023 1:54 pm And from posts in this catchup I'm leaning more to Epi now than Dizzy. Idk.
-----
SVS - I am paranoid but do not have a direct reason to want to flip first. If the above two are clean she's where I'd look next, mostly by POE, but at that point I get more paranoid of my paranoia tier too.
Rico - Coin fuckin flip idc. The back of my head is invoking the "did he just forget about the game and is that more likely town" but that's somewhat angley and not much worth weighing in.
Marmot - Meh?
-----
Everyone else I'd prefer not to die today probably.

.....Shit idk. Maybe I'm not as sure on falcon. Maybe the wolves are just all in my paranoia tier. I feel likely to 180 on just about anyone at any point. I hate this game.
(Full disclosure: I edited things out of this post that weren't relevant to the point I was making)

This looks quite good for Nutella imo. If Epi were pushing a partner here, I think he’d make a better case. It’s harder as a wolf to find evidence against townies than it is to find evidence against wolves, and this case gave me the feeling he was struggling for evidence.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 10:38 pm
Syn wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 10:37 pmunderwhelming tbh

Slightly good for Syn imo. I think if they were partners Epi would say more.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 7:24 pm

Too bad that Scotty isn't mafia.

This insistence that Scotty isn't mafia to the point where Epi's worldview revolves around it feels a little too level 1 for Epi/Scotty partners.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 7:41 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 1:24 pm @Epignosis if you are town, which I am not inclined to believe at the moment: I encourage you to fully read my exchange with Scotty. I encourage you to make any effort to see town POV in my posts, rather than cherrypicking what you dislike and dipping. I encourage you to broaden your scope of engagement with the topics of discussion in the thread. I encourage you to provide thoughts on other players and on more than a surface level. What I've seen from you today is uninspiring and looks like a mafia member finding a single gripe to poke at while ignoring the full tapestry of interactions and not stopping to think about how townies actually think. Use your theory of mind. If you're actually town, show that you care because it certainly doesn't look like you do.
I don't care about being inspiring.

I'll do what you ask when I have a chance.

Good look for Nutella.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 9:32 pm I don't think falcon or Scotty is mafia.

Slightly bad look for Falcon.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 11:05 pm
nutella seems to like Scotty so far.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 11:08 pm Okay, on nutella's third page, there's a turn against Scotty.

I don't see it. Sorry nut.

Slight good look for both nutella and Scotty.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 11:26 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 11:24 pm
Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 11:08 pm Okay, on nutella's third page, there's a turn against Scotty.

I don't see it. Sorry nut.
See what?

I don't need you to agree with my thoughts. I just wanted you to see that I had them. Since you had such a shallow understanding of my play.
I mean I have Scotty as a civilian. That's all. I'm sorry I misunderstood.

Good look for Nutella.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 11:27 pm Ricochet has three fucking posts and I have two votes. Amazing.

Some WIFOM in this, but I’d GTH say it’s a good look for Rico.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 11:39 pm In case I go over, here you go:

Falcon - Good
Marmot - Bad
Nutella - Bad (Still owe a reread though)
Ricochet- ???
Scotty - Good
S~V~S - ???
Syn - Purple
Thunal - Bad

Good look for Syn and Nutella.

I think this is very good for Nutella. There's a lot of moments where Epi is addressing Nutella like someone he knows is town and actually is trying to convince. Him making an underwhelming case on her, being confused about her Scotty read, and apologizing to her are all things that it's possible he could have faked with a partner individually, but I highly doubt he faked all of them with the same person.

It looks somewhat good for Scotty as well. It's possible his constant townread on Scotty was WIFOM or he was just dedicated to defending his partner, but it's not a good wolf strategy imo. Him not just townreading Scotty but building his read on Nutella from his read on Scotty is something that's a bit hard to fake.

I had a ping from Epi's banter with Syn because it felt like he had a need to interact with him, but there are a couple micro moments that looked good for Syn like asking Syn to wait for the Nutella post and putting Syn as "purple" in his readslist.

There's not much with Falcon but they could easily be teamed imo. I had a slight ping from Epi putting Falcon into one of his posts saying Scotty isn't mafia.

Maybe I can get more posts if I whisper.

Tbf, I definitely did not expect to die. Even though I got Epi, enough people suspected me before EoD that I think I would have been an odd kill. And I kinda think SVS is underestimating how much cred she has. The fact that she did so strongly veto my chop basically locked her into Epi and I think a busser would try to turn around on the Epi read and get more cred by wolfreading him.

Rico had no reason to vote Epi when he did and he could very easily have decided to vote me instead.

SVS I really don't think would act like she did as a wolf. She hard defended me but wasn't even sold on Epi.

Nutella I have a bit of tinfoil about how she voted me to make it 2/2 after a turnaround on me, but I still don't think it's her. I still think her reaction to LC's claim was good, and her telling Rico to vote Epi looked good.

Scotty tunneled me really hard, but only voted me after Marmot voted Epi. He had Epi as his second suspect which isn't a great look. From Epi's side he looks good since I don't think Epi would insist that hard Scotty isn't mafia if they were paired.

Falcon dropped off a lot d2 compared to d1 which isn't a great look. He wasn't around for EoD and didn't have any new takes on Epi d2.

Syn had the worst vote on me imo. He suspected me a lot but only voted me right after Nutella to make it 3/2 which very well could have been an attempt to save Epi.

The Marmot kill and my silence point two different ways on Syn, which is interesting. At first I thought I could have been silenced because I was onto Syn but Marmot had him as a townread.

I got a message saying I had the Silencing Soulstamp used on me, but I still have a postcap of 30 today.

While a bus is possible, I don't think it's probable in this case. I was onto Epi and the other wolf would know I would look good from his flip and be a lot harder to mislim. It would have been in wolves' best interest to kill me.

SVS
Marmot

Nutella

Scotty
Rico
Falcon

Syn
Epi

Good luck, I hope this hits.

Syn wrote: ↑Fri Aug 11, 2023 4:57 pm
Thunal33 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 11, 2023 4:47 pm If Syn is a wolf, I don't think w!Falcon ever votes him there.
why not

It's a bit out of the blue and putting you in contention when you weren't in contention. I don't really think Falcon's the type of player to make a risky move like that anyway.

Ricochet wrote: ↑Fri Aug 11, 2023 4:49 pm Sorry for not posting I was at a concert

who should i vote

It's 3 me, 2 Epi but SVS is likely going to vote Epi to make it 3-3. I think Epi has a good chance of being a hit.

nutella wrote: ↑Fri Aug 11, 2023 4:48 pm I do actually think Epi/Syn makes sense though and if so I will repent in the desert for getting pocketed by Syn.

I'll repent with you tbh.

If Syn is a wolf, I don't think w!Falcon ever votes him there. Falcon/Epi is plausible but then I wonder if they'd make the Dizzy kill.

nutella wrote: ↑Fri Aug 11, 2023 4:35 pm Epi is certainly dead weight if town and yes I will feel silly if it was him after all, and I still won't complain if he ends up going over. It just also feels like the easy option and while yes sometimes it is the easy option it has not felt to me today like it is and I had to follow the hunch that has been building up.

The thing is, he's not normally this disinterested in explaining his reasons. When I played with him and he was town in Solar System, we had a lot of real time interactions and he was a lot more open with his thought process than he is here. I can't really point to anything in Epi's ISO that I think is significantly towny.

Looking over I still feel like Syn's whole reaction of making a difference check between me/Scotty makes sense if he's a wolf and Scotty is town. I probably should have listened to my earlier tinfoil instead of dismissing it. His reasoning on wanting to flip me first is really flimsy and I also think it makes sense for wolf Syn to not really go after the harder target in Scotty even though he voices suspicion on him.

Also, I really need to get it wired in my head that a mislim doesn't have to be a failure. I've been trying to get out of that mindset, but there's still part of me that thinks being mislimed is because I wasn't towny enough and could have played better. I think Epi being eliminated over me would be a whole lot better for town but I'll do what I can to leave a legacy and see if I can still make a positive impact on the game.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 7:48 pm
Thunal33 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 2:06 pm nutella
SVS

Marmot
Syn

Rico
Falcon

Epi
Scotty
What the hell?

Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 11:39 pm In case I go over, here you go:

Falcon - Good
Marmot - Bad
Nutella - Bad (Still owe a reread though)
Ricochet- ???
Scotty - Good
S~V~S - ???
Syn - Purple
Thunal - Bad

I think Epi's sus on me doesn't make any sense. The "what the hell?" to a rainbow list that I had similar positions to all day and then just calling me bad came out of nowhere.

nutella wrote: ↑Fri Aug 11, 2023 4:19 pm If it's Syn and Rico, just lol me, I suck, but you are both having absurdly overblown reactions here when I feel my trajectory has been telegraphed a fair bit.

Did you actually read and think about the points I made?

S~V~S wrote: ↑Fri Aug 11, 2023 4:14 pm
Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 11:39 pm In case I go over, here you go:

Falcon - Good
Marmot - Bad
Nutella - Bad (Still owe a reread though)
Ricochet- ???
Scotty - Good
S~V~S - ???
Syn - Purple
Thunal - Bad
@Thunal33 looks like Epi will vote you if he shows, my vote won’t matter. So if I were you I’d start trying to convince him.

“Subtly” my ass ha ha ha, that’s hilarious

I feel so stupid.

Linki, oh thank god. I *should* be home by then.

I don't think trying to convince him will do much good since I'll be fighting for him to go over. If he is town, I hope he's convinced by my towncase. I still think he has a good chance of being mafia.

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 8:34 pm
Scotty wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 6:54 pm
I mean it didn’t really matter when it comes to my vote tbh, since I had already voted marmot at that point.

LC shielding Thunal was so left field that it really made me think thunal was the bloodsealer.

Now without LC to shield her I’m…I guess…even more tunneled on her being bad
This isn't a good look for you because I don't really believe that you believed I was the bloodsealer. I thought it was Dizzy and realized it close to EoD, but after I looked through LC's ISO I thought it was clear. He had Dizzy as his top townread for "reasons" when he tried to explain it.

It's easier for a wolf to think "oh crap, maybe I'm pushing a power role" and be paranoid about that than it is for a townie, since a wolf already knows their push is town. If you're town, you believed I was a wolf but still backed off because LC was townreading me even though he was townreading Dizzy twice as hard for no reason? From the mindset of a townie who confidently believes I'm a wolf, thinking "wait, maybe she's a power role" would not be the first thing that comes to mind.

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 9:14 pm
Scotty wrote: ↑Tue Aug 08, 2023 2:55 pm Laughable that you could clear anyone

If LC wasn’t shielding you I would have voted you.

I still think you’re bad.

********

Marmot could be good. Their response is not terrible, but they’re also just a scumlean to me atm. I don’t regret voting for them.

*********

Dizzy is an enigma. Syn calling dizzy a top town read is laughable. Dizzy is rather despondent. Epi called him mean, which equates to, as dizzy describes, bluntness. But I see the opposite. He’s a bit aloof and isn’t ruffling any feathers. Blendy, not pushing the envelope. I support a dizzy vote if the rest of y’all with votes remaining choose to go there
You didn't vote me because LC was shielding me, but you had no problem voting Dizzy who LC was also shielding in the same post. If you just wanted LC's strong townreads to be off limits that makes sense, but that's not what you wanted. I feel like if there are two people you think could be the bloodsealer, if you were town you probably wouldn't think it was the one you thought was a wolf all day.

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 1:05 pm
Scotty wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 1:24 am
I go back and forth on nutella. She has oscillated between moments where I think her tone is genuine in solving and others (like LC claiming) that came off to me as frustrated wolf. But the frustration was real, nonetheless. That could definitely go for either alignment. But it doesn’t prove that she’s town.

I am not going to argue against a Nutella yeet today if that’s where it goes
If you're so tunneled on me, why wouldn't you argue against a Nutella elim? If I'm tunneled on someone to the degree that you appear to be tunneled on me, I want them eliminated and absolutely would argue against an elim on someone who I'm going back and forth on.

I think all these posts show I have a town mindset. I'm clearly making them because I know I'm town, and that's how I was even able to think of these points. I believed that Scotty wouldn't jump to thinking I'm a PR because I was thinking of hypotheticals in my brain like that I wouldn't suddenly think he were a PR when I was tunneling him. Look at my recent wolf meta (Solar System and se7en). My cases were not like this. They were weaker. One thing I've had a hard time with my whole career is making convincing points on why townies are wolves as a wolf. For example, here's a post I made sussing t!Falcon as a wolf in Solar System:

Spoiler: show

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Wed May 31, 2023 9:33 pm Falcon ISO:
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Fri May 26, 2023 10:07 am [VOTE: lemon] aubergine

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Fri May 26, 2023 10:08 am
RondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Fri May 26, 2023 10:07 am Any particular reason Falcon or just your wolf buddy being pretty obv wolf?
I am sheeping Thunal.
Still reads as slightly wolfy to me because it’s not taking accountability for the mislim.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon May 29, 2023 10:21 am
Is it just weird, or is it scummy?

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon May 29, 2023 10:38 am Hmmmm...I'm seeing fingers defend LHF/slankers a lot, but she doesn't seem to be concerned over the players pushing these slots...almost as tho she's aware that town is pushing town.

[VOTE: fingers] aubergine
I think that Falcon giving an original take on Splints at a time when she’d caught up and wasn’t as LHF as d1 was slightly towny.
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon May 29, 2023 7:06 pm Hmmmm, going thru Ricochet's ISO, I find it far more towny than PSV's

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon May 29, 2023 7:07 pm [VOTE: neon] aubergine

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon May 29, 2023 7:31 pm
Yeah actually, reading that it does have an implied tmi on Rondo's slot. Good catch!

[VOTE: PSV] aubergine
I don’t like this at all. The implied TMI thing was pretty weak and there’s a lack of reasoning on anyone other than Splints and a pattern of sheeping. I’ll go out on a limb and say Falcon/Porscha aren’t w/w for this. If Falcon is a wolf, I think he tried to pin responsibility for the PSV ML on Porscha.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Wed May 31, 2023 3:19 pm I've got mild tinfoil that they're w/w actually. They're both kinda using kid's gloves on each other, not pushing each other really
Fmpov this just doesn’t make sense and I think it could either be a wolf painting a t/t or t/w pair as w/w or a townie with an out there tinfoil. I’m entertaining the idea of a Falcon/Splints team. Falcon seemed to have significantly better reasoning on Splints than he did on anyone else.

I might have a big wolf range, but I still have a wolf range. I'm not somehow suddenly good enough of a wolf to fake these more unconventional points when I've never done it as a wolf, but also bad enough of a wolf to do things I knew would get me sussed by the thread like have no scumreads at EoD1, switch my reads many times, and then vote Seanzie to make sure he dies over Marmot even though I could so easily have just not voted. I really think to any townies that are voting me, if you read my ISO you'll see that it comes from town. I don't even fully understand the suspicion on me.

Btw there's 2 hours until EoD, not 1.

Nutella's vote almost looks too bad to be a wolf. Unless she's with Epi and averse to bussing (and I don't think she'd say she'd 99% vote Epi if she were) then her 180ing with literally no reason on me would be bad wolf strategy. I flip town, then she goes from being townread to having to answer for her surprise vote.

Syn wrote: ↑Fri Aug 11, 2023 3:50 pm
Thunal33 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 11, 2023 3:47 pm
Syn wrote: ↑Fri Aug 11, 2023 3:25 pm [VOTE: Thunal] aubergine
I know you've been wolfreading me all game, but your vote really rubbed me wrong, more than Nutella's. I told you that your gut feel about me knowing that LC wasn't shielding me was bad because yes, I did know that as a VT. I've had tinfoil on you if Scotty is town because of how you've been sitting back and almost encouraging the fight, but now I really have that. Scotty's vote on me at least feels like he's holding himself accountable and when I flip town he's tunneled me hard enough that he looks terrible from it so I'm not sure he's a wolf. I feel like you're keeping your options open between me/Scotty.
the logic of this does not hold IMO. Scotty would look good and I would look bad based on this hypothetical

Yes, that's what I'm leaning towards. I did a deeper dive on Scotty including meta and while I'm not confident he's town, I'm no longer tunneled on him and I can see a town explanation for his tunnel.

Syn wrote: ↑Fri Aug 11, 2023 3:44 pm genuinely though thunal lol almost all of D2 has been about wolf-reading you or voting you, how is this a sudden pile.

Tbh, part of me didn't quite believe that I would actually be the elim. I believed that a lot of the people in this list could read me well and it almost didn't feel real until recently.

Syn wrote: ↑Fri Aug 11, 2023 3:25 pm [VOTE: Thunal] aubergine

I know you've been wolfreading me all game, but your vote really rubbed me wrong, more than Nutella's. I told you that your gut feel about me knowing that LC wasn't shielding me was bad because yes, I did know that as a VT. I've had tinfoil on you if Scotty is town because of how you've been sitting back and almost encouraging the fight, but now I really have that. Scotty's vote on me at least feels like he's holding himself accountable and when I flip town he's tunneled me hard enough that he looks terrible from it so I'm not sure he's a wolf. I feel like you're keeping your options open between me/Scotty.

Really? It would have been nice to at least wait for me to come back before you piled on me. I'm willing to towncase myself but I honestly didn't think it would come to this and this sudden pile doesn't give me good feelings at all.

I don't know what Rico is doing. The one time I played with him he had a slow start but he ended up doing a lot of ISO work and going from the probable elim to the NK. He's a bit below null imo. I feel like town!Rico would show hints of solving even if he had trouble keeping up.

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 10:52 pm
Thunal33 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 10:04 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 7:34 pm
Spoiler: show
Don't tell anyone but I'm actually considering Thunal as a somewhat more likely hit at the moment. I will let Epi finish and see what he does but I'm not as locked into him as I was.

Really? I think you of all people would find it obvious I'm town.
Believable, sure. Obvious? Really?

I think I'm obvious town even though I know it's not as obvious from the outside. I don't blame any townie for not seeing it, I just am a little frustrated I've been catching this much suspicion.

Part of me is doubting if Epi would be this willing to die if he's a wolf, but I don't see who it is if Epi isn't one. I don't think it's a Falcon/Rico team, I think Scotty looks better if Epi is town, and Syn is the only one of my townreads that I have tinfoil on but I still don't really think it's him. I think the "just say I'm a wolf" approach to SVS is a slightly good look for Syn. I also think Epi is compatible with pretty much anyone not named Nutella or Marmot.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 7:48 pm
Thunal33 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 2:06 pm nutella
SVS

Marmot
Syn

Rico
Falcon

Epi
Scotty
What the hell?

This was where I was at most of the day. How is that surprising?

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 7:34 pm
Spoiler: show
Don't tell anyone but I'm actually considering Thunal as a somewhat more likely hit at the moment. I will let Epi finish and see what he does but I'm not as locked into him as I was.

Really? I think you of all people would find it obvious I'm town.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 9:51 pm Why did you vote me?

Because my PoE is quite narrow and I think you fit the best. Your case on Nutella was bad in a wolfy way and you never addressed it. I feel like you're throwing out suspicion to see what sticks. As far as why I chose that moment to vote you, I wanted you to be a wagon today and I wanted to vote you before I had to leave for a few hours.

I looked at the Don't Starve game and while Scotty did suspect SVS, it wasn't anywhere near the level of tunneling he did on me. I have a little bit of a hard time believing he's just that wrong on me. He saw me in se7en, he saw me in Solar System, and he saw me in Art Upick. I feel like I'm clearly showing my town thought process. I wouldn't get stuck for scumreads near EoD1, I don't think I would fake tunneling Scotty as scum, and I just wouldn't fake all the thoughts I had this game. I thought town Scotty would know that.

It would make a little bit more sense for Scotty being so tunneled on me that he can't even imagine a world where LC would townread me without me being a PR if he were a frequent tunneler.

S~V~S wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 6:23 pm
Syn wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 1:44 am
Scotty wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 1:16 am @Syn so even though I’m committed to this thunal tunnel, and I think I’m correct,

When you said earlier that you think there is (more or less) a difference check between us, are you still trying to make up your mind on which of us is bad, or are you recanting that?

Like do you think there is a world in which both of us are town?
I mean, of course there's a world where that could be true

I... feel it's unlikely. the way you two have gone at it does not feel like theatre, and enough holes are being poked into both your approaches to the game by separate people that there is something amiss. during D1 I interpreted this as an awkward team, but during D2 it has seemed more directly oppositional

could be good acting, I guess. but for now I'm content with the simpler read that one of you has the other one pegged

I could explain why I want to flip thunal first but the logic of it is terrible and will make me look silly, so instead I'll just look at you alluringly and hope it does the trick

Have you never seen an aggressive town/town tunnel war? I would have thought we all have. You should have been here back in the day when Dharma Helper and I regularly eviscerated each other as t/t almost every game. It traumatized both of us into quitting Mafia for varying amounts of time lol. He's a great guy, but we just couldn't vibe in thread.

T/T doesn't involve acting. You really really believe it. I 100% think Scotty believes what he's saying about Thunal, it's part of why I think he's town. I can't understand a world where Scotty does this for any reason as a wolf. I also think Thunal believes it, but is prolly more willing to be flexible.

But really, being unwilling to be flexible and work with each other is why town loses all the time. We're all on mini crusades of one.

OK, off soapbox, gotta go make dinner, back to finish catching up shortly.

Linki, lol, and there she goes being all flexible. @Thunal33 , do you think there is any value to the wolves in how Scotty is acting *if he is a wolf*? I really don't see why a savvy wolf with a savvy teammate (and this games roster is all savvy players) would lock himself in so so hard to yeet one person. It's a suicide mission, and the last time he did it, in Don't Starve, he got himself yeeted for it. I don't imagine, if he was bad, he would choose that as a good, winning strategy.

I've tunneled townies as a wolf myself but not quite to that extent except when it was a mechanically locked claim battle. I think the d1 tunnel isn't so committal a wolf couldn't do it. For the d2 tunnel if Scotty thought he or his partner were in a bad position then it could make sense to tunnel me as a wolf to shake up the threadstate especially if he doesn't think I actually get eliminated today. I don't think he tunnels me as a wolf if he thinks the gamestate is good for wolves. He talked about being open-minded with his reads and said he wouldn't be against a Nutella elim if it came to that, which makes me wonder if he thought that was enough to pivot in future days if he needed to. It could be t/t violence and I'm more open to that idea than I was, but I'm having a hard time finding who the wolves are if not Scotty.

[VOTE: Epi] aubergine

I still wolfread Scotty, but his wolf equity goes down if he's not exactly teamed with Epi and I am considering SVS's read there.

I'm considering voting Epi right now. I'm looking at his behavior and it's independently wolfy. He consistently scumread Nutellla but it also doesn't feel like he's actually tunneled on her. He's not really trying to convince people to vote Nutella with that case, he just threw it out, made one sigh emoji and left. It feels performative.

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 5:07 pm
Scotty wrote: ↑Sun Aug 06, 2023 10:03 pm
Epignosis wrote: ↑Sun Aug 06, 2023 9:48 pm [VOTE: Thunal] aubergine

Let's roll.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sun Aug 06, 2023 9:52 pm Well okay. Shit. I am a moron.
Why do I feel like these two thoughts don’t go together?

You pull Thunal out your ass, who has been talked about by several people as a scum read, so either you have been reading the thread to come to this vote or you’ve thrown your bowling ball straight down the middle while blindfolded.

Then you claim not to have read the rules. Your first post is responding to ????? the voices in your head ????? about the post limit.

I dunno, your whole entrance makes me feel you’re not being sincere
I townread this post in the moment but it might be partnered. I think w!Scotty would have a harder time thinking of this being fake if it's t!Epi, but if it actually were fake and he knew it then it makes sense why he would think of it.

I've been thinking about this and I don't think w!Scotty treats t!Epi the way he did day 1. He goes all in thinking Epi was faking the vote lock, and then turns around and townreads him. It would make sense if they were partnered, but I don't think he would both immediately think Epi was faking the vote lock and then take away an easy push from himself like that if Epi were town.

Scotty wrote: ↑Sun Aug 06, 2023 10:03 pm
Epignosis wrote: ↑Sun Aug 06, 2023 9:48 pm [VOTE: Thunal] aubergine

Let's roll.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sun Aug 06, 2023 9:52 pm Well okay. Shit. I am a moron.
Why do I feel like these two thoughts don’t go together?

You pull Thunal out your ass, who has been talked about by several people as a scum read, so either you have been reading the thread to come to this vote or you’ve thrown your bowling ball straight down the middle while blindfolded.

Then you claim not to have read the rules. Your first post is responding to ????? the voices in your head ????? about the post limit.

I dunno, your whole entrance makes me feel you’re not being sincere

I townread this post in the moment but it might be partnered. I think w!Scotty would have a harder time thinking of this being fake if it's t!Epi, but if it actually were fake and he knew it then it makes sense why he would think of it.

I don't think Falcon should have voted for Syn, but I don't really see it as wolfy and I see it as unpaired with Epi.

I still have a hard time believing Scotty tunneled me so hard that he had a hard time seeing how LC could townread me, but said I was down the middle in his reads himself earlier. I reviewed early d2 to see if I might be wrong on him but Nutella and SVS did express some sus on Epi so I could see Scotty feeling the need to double down on tunneling me. His tunnel d1 wasn't such a risky move that a wolf wouldn't do it imo. If I flipped d1 I think it wouldn't be hard for him to go "my bad, I was just wrong" and still get townreads.

Syn wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 4:03 pm I admit to a paranoia that everyone being okay with Epi's chop is potentially problematic, but I also do not town-read him myself, so I am not sure how that paranoia applies, or if it does at all

thunal I have largely suspected from near the beginning of the game, and that has really only grown from there. I do still hold that she and scotty are opposites. I do still hold that I independently scum-read both. The logic of my thunal case for going over first today is also flimsy upon dissection: I strongly felt that dizzy was the other PR after LC outed, and my gut told me that thunal also felt this... because she was the wolf in the veto list. this logic falls apart when you consider that clocking dizzy takes less than 5 minutes of looking at LC's ISO, and that's still true even if the wolf team is largely AFK. so thunal could very well be town, and it required no TMI to pick the right target. but I still can't shake the gut read.

coincidentally, I agree with scotty's case where thunal's posting seems overly choreographed, making the right sounds but not sticking the landing. a part of me vaguely recalls this being a part of thunal's gameplay (if my shaky mafia memory of 1+ year ago is in any way robust), a part of me thinks it's wolfy and inauthentic. yet the inauthenticity argument also applies to scotty, who I also think hasn't been overly sincere in his posting. you see the dilemma. especially with scotty jumping on the thunal push on D1 after I pressured her, and then again here on D2, this time with a vote to ensure that she is likely the wagon over him

You do realize that the exact same logic also applies to me knowing I'm VT in the veto list? I don't have a lot to respond to something like this other than that I'm town and I think my posting shows an organic progression where I don't know the mafia rather than a calculated, fake one.

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