The Syndicate

gg everyone!

@c4e5g3d5
@Dyslexicon
@nutella
@outed wolf
@staypositivefriend

Hi.

So, I'm not totally sure what would be most helpful right now, so I guess I'm just going to start with going through everyone on the playerlist and thoughtsdumping about them?

these are vaguely organized from more town to more scum

Nutella

I've re-read the her-Dya interactions a couple times and I feel like she's just spewed V, Dya seemed really genuinely annoyed with her push on them in a way that feels super unpartnery. I have a harder time commenting on her actual reads because she changes them every five minutes which kind of throws a wrench in things I would normally find alignment indicative. Supposedly she has a clear meta difference and is in her town meta? I don't know her meta so I can't comment, I wouldn't expect 'change your reads every five minutes' to be hard to fake but I assume it goes deeper than that.

outed wolf

He seems to be a suspect for a lot of people but I honestly ... don't see it? If he's a wolf then I think he would always know after Vul got redchecked that he needed to deepwolf and win endgame, and I don't think his hero CFD to save Dya makes sense from that PoV. (Like, if he's a wolf I think the reason he would do that would be to create 'why would I do that as wolf' WifoM rather than to save Dya, and I don't really think that's a plan that makes sense, it has a lot of backfire potential.) There are also various micro reasons I find him villagery (the way Dya treated him + bronana, the way he went out of his way to mock reads, etc.) I'm honestly kind of confused on what the reason for suspicion on him is in the first place.

I don't know. Maybe I'm wolfsiding again, but I really don't think it's him.

Dizzy

I think if I look at his solving, particularly re: Vulgard, he seems very likely to be a villager. I have a hard time seeing him, as wolf, come up with that extremely nitpicky wording read on why Vul and Dya are W/W, particularly since it tied Vul to Dya (who was pretty much always dying in the next couple of days). I also just don't sort of thing it's the type-of-read a wolf comes up with in general? like it's an extremely specific + non-generic thing to point out. (I'm honestly not sure if it was actually alignment-indicative for him, even knowing that he was scum? but still.) I guess maybe if he were a wolf with TMI that Vul and Dya were scum who thought it was a smoking gun that the villagers would notice any second?? but that's not consistent with how he treated the read, nor with the fact that it had been in the thread for a while with no one noticing.

I do have a couple hesitations with his treatment of my slot yesterday -- like, he came into the day being like 'Nutella and I talked about it and we've concluded it's probably not Arete' and then slowly let himself get convinced over the course of the day it was me, and despite him outlining his progression clearly in the thread I'm still not totally sure how he got there? Like, some of the points that were brought up against me were new, but a lot of them had been brought up previously. E.g.:
I find it really hard to believe that me hard defending Vul didn't come up in his night chat with Nutella, so if he concluded I was town during that chat, it seems weird for him to reverse his read on that basis? It also totally ignores the context on me calling Vul having bad reads NAI but if he was ISOing me that basically makes sense.

I don't know, I still think he's probably town, I just think that in particular is a bit weird and could make sense from a wolf who realized that they need me to be voted out as part of their p a t h t o v i c t o r y.

(I don't think that logic applies to Nutella because she changes her reads constantly so her changing her mind on me is NAI.)

c4

So, okay. This slot is definitely one that I have conflicted feelings about. I do think That One Vulgardpost is a good look for him, and the 'he already put two teammates there, why not a third?' explanation is kind of silly, like, it ignores the whole reason it would be unlikely for him to call out three teammates at once? But I don't think it's completely impossible that Vul was messing around/trying to do it because people wouldn't expect it. I do separately think his treatment of Alison demonstrates a lack of TMI -- in particular, him acting frustrated at EoD2 that he had been accused of TMIing Alison V (with the implication being that she was a wolf for not showing up and claiming) isn't really what I would expect from a wolf at what I perceive as his experience level.

On the other hand, I have a hard time coming up with macro level reasons he's a villager, mostly because he hasn't really done much. Also, he seemed super convinced all game that I was never W/W with Vulgard, but made ~no meaningful attempt at changing the wagons despite me being a pretty consensus wagon at many points during the day, which kind of matches how wolves sometimes treat villagers that they don't want to be seen pushing but can't save.

His self-pres vote is strictly NAI, it's mechanically correct for villagers to self-pres.

If he's a wolf he's not really trying to win but I think that's basically NAI for him, lots of wolves pretty much give up if they don't think they have a chance/don't want to spend the rest of the game defending themself/etc.

SPF

I find her posts surface-level villagery, I suppose? Also she pushed a wolf, which is neat, but not really clearing since basically everyone who's still alive pushed wolves at some point.

I don't think her Dya progression is clearing, the argument she's making is that in CoV she was way more focused on getting cred/looking flashy but she was voted out mid-day 4 in CoV so I think it would be reasonable for her to tone it down? (I wasn't actually in CoV so I don't know if she was suspected for bussing too hard or for bussing not hard enough or for some other reason, it would be cool if someone who followed that game more closely could comment.)
A particular issue I take with her posting is that there are a lot of places where it feels like she's trying to make people look bad for reasons that are either NAI, or that she doesn't actually "believe." For instance, she tried to shade me yesterday for not leaving behind a clear and explicit legacy where I've specifically narrowed down the last wolf, rather than my actual state of 'not being sure but still trying to solve':

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Thu Jun 10, 2021 3:54 pm

Arete wrote: ↑Thu Jun 10, 2021 3:52 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Thu Jun 10, 2021 3:49 pm

Arete wrote: ↑Thu Jun 10, 2021 3:39 pm I'm sort of mrrr about SPF being like 'arete hasn't been digging into my alignment very much, which means they aren't really trying to solve my slot' when the entire reasoning behind my reads is PoE
(also I did in fact look into her allegedly-clearing Dya progression and didn't find it clearing, but)

i mean, my reads are largely based on POE too, i just havent really gotten the impression that youre super worried about whether or not im town?
like i do think that you have a solid chance at being the last wolf, but i'm also very worried about being wrong. i don't sense a similar sense of worry or concern from your end of things

I mean yeah I'm not super worried about being wrong because I've known for most of the day that I was probably getting voted out today and so my reads mostly don't actually "matter" in the sense of affecting the chances of the last wolf being voted out? like I feel like when I phrase it that way it sounds like I'm saying that I don't care about solving, which is false, but like, I don't expect that me reading you as a wolf-by-PoE, if you are a villager, is going to particularly influence anyone
that's still a super bad phrasing that completely fails to communicate what I'm actually trying to communicate
weh

on the contrary, if you feel like you're going to end up dying today, then isn't even more important to leave behind a solid legacy that you can feel good and confident about?

But today, she goes out of the way to discredit the idea of meaningfully listening to my reads:

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri Jun 11, 2021 7:28 pm

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Jun 11, 2021 7:22 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri Jun 11, 2021 7:21 pm

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Jun 11, 2021 7:17 pm Open question: How about we let Aroot choose the chop for today?
She is confirmed town. She can post.

no

Because?

half because they wolfread me and half because i dont really agree with letting individual people "lead" the chops in general

which makes me think that she didn't really believe that 'me not leaving an explicit legacy' is wolfy, or at the very least if she did then that intersects very weirdly with her other beliefs. Like, for her beliefs to line up here she basically has to believe 'PoE villagers should leave an explicit legacy where they have perfectly identified who the wolves are as a performative demonstration of their towniness with no bearing on actually solving' which I guess is consistent with how a lot of the game was treating me but still feels like a weird thing to believe.

Also, she's been shading c4 for self-presing onto me, which is a really questionable argument given that self-pres is always mechanically optimal. Granted, this isn't her entire point and her argument is slightly more reasonable in context but it still overall leaves a bad taste in my mouth.

I got the vague sense re-reading the last couple of days that she knew that the game wasn't going to end but this is mostly gut, not a serious point.

Also, this is a minor point, but she's been really insistent that her Dya interactions are clearing because she wasn't specifically trying to make it over the top for cred but even when it was explicitly brought up she never seemed to at all consider the fact that I tried to save Alison over Dya while making literally no attempt whatsoever to get cred from it. Like, I understand not clearing me for that if you're starting from the assumption that I'm a completely incompetent wolf who likes getting my partners killed in ways that provide me with literally no benefit whatsoever, which apparently everyone in the game was since you all kept bringing it up as a point, but she ... never even considered the fact that I was trying to kill Dya while making literally no attempt to get credit ... despite her main argument for herself being not W/W with Dya being the fact that she wasn't trying to get cred. This is a minor point, I think my other points are more compelling.

Anyways. I shuffled around the last three on the list a couple times, I'm pretty confident in Nutella and outed wolf V. At this point if I got to choose the chops I would kill SPF and then c4 in that order.

---

The Bronana nightkill felt weird from my PoV but probably makes ~reasonable sense given that other people mostly townread him more than I did. Shrug.

---

nutella wrote: ↑Fri Jun 11, 2021 7:22 pm oh right arete can post
(also they* btw)
@Arete would love opinions on outed wolf

I think he's a villager, see above.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Jun 12, 2021 6:29 am I have to go now, but there's something I'm interested to check. If anyone wants to bother or if @Arete has the time and feel it's interesting:
How was c4's position when Vulgard and Dya both decided to lolcat? Did he look not teamed with them, was he set up for a win?
How did c4 react the day we yeeted Dya? He said something about the PoE, when he really wanted me in it. Did the PoE include Dya or was it just him and Syn? This last question is confusing, but I'm interested in what he said that day.
Basically, largely - Was c4 boxed in when Dya/Vulgard kind of gave up? Cause if he was, it does't really make sense that it's him.

Dya started lolcatting in P#3315. As far as I could find in terms of discussion of c4's alignment from people who are not flipped wolves (I'm skipping some discussion that's related to c4 but not his alignment) (this is from the 200ish posts before Dya started lolcatting)
- In P#3232 Visor asks for thoughts on c4's popin, in P#3234 Bronana says it was "not good lol"
- in P#3179 and P#3180 Marl asks him for thoughts and lightly shades him for doing nothing
- in P#3120 Dizzy vaguely implies he could be a wolf with Marl
- in P#3137 outed wolf says " I wager our wolf guesses will all be in C4 Chloe dya"
So basically, there was some mild anti-c4 sentiment, but mostly not super major.

---

re: the question Dizzy asked me yesterday, about early reactions to Vul being outed:
Wolves would have known as of P#2675 that Vul was basically outed (when Amy spelled it out explicitly). Every post from then to P#3702 (when Marl claimed the jailkeep on c4) is basically NAI or from a dead player (though I did almost explain why bronana had a villagery reaction, lolArete).
After Marl claimed:
- P#2703 - Nutella seemingly believed it pretty much instantly. probably >rand to be not TMI?
- P#2706 - Nut speculates on what it means for Nutella's alignment in a mildly yikes way although maybe she wouldn't have done so in a world where she knows the redcheck is fake?
- P#2710 - Visor seems confused at c4's response ('I'm gonna say that's probably not true but I've seen weirder kills.') I kind of believe this is genuine confusion.
oh and I forgot c4 was alive for a moment. I think he was genuinely unsure what happened but that he would be genuinely confused regardless of his alignment.
P#2711 - kind of think Nutella doesn't say this if she has TMI it's fake and c4 is V
P#2713 - 'well, that's embarrassing' from SPF. a lot of people have been calling this town from her but I honestly don't see it.
P#2716 is kind of meh for how it ties him to Dya
P#2718 from SPF I have mixed feelings about. I'm not sure that her doubting the check makes sense from her PoV since she wasn't convinced he was Always The Lockest Of Towns but her emotions kind of seem real.
a few other miscellaneous posts in the meantime most of which don't pull me super strongly either way.
P#2747 - Sunbae counters with a check on Vul
it takes a couple posts for people to notice
P#2752 - Visor calls Sunbae's check "spicy". don't feel strongly either way about this.
P#2753 - c4 instavotes Vul, I think this makes sense regardless of his alignment since he's the one the previous check was claimed on.
P#2656 - Visor basically ignores the check and instead continues to call c4 bad and wolfy. I think this is ... probably mildly good?? like it just doesn't seem like he cares at all about the check. which is kind of confusing regardless of his alignment, honestly, so I guess maybe it's not good after all.
P#2757 pretty NAI reaction from Nutella
P#2761 okay this kind of just feels like Visor doesn't know what to say
a few miscellaneous posts in the middle that are mostly fairly NAI
P#2784 - SPF finally comes back, says she feels less dumb. I want to call her frozen because she posted in the minute before Sunbae hardclaimed and then didn't post for seven minutes after the claim but that's probably dumb, lots of reasons that could happen as a villager.
P#2788 from SPF 'assuming that sunbae sticks to his claim and assuming that vulgard is a wolf, i'm perfectly okay with calling marluxion locktown based on that. it would require an absurd amount of mental gymnastics for him and vulgard to fake that dynamic as wolves' - I have no idea what to do with this
Visor shades Dya a lot on this page. don't really think that would be his immediate reaction to Vul being outed.
and then a whole bunch of people call me W/W with him but they can't possibly all be wolves trying to set me up

sorry for not looking into your Alison question, I didn't really think I could do it justice without rereading all 26ish pages of D2.

---

I thiiiink that's all I had to say, I hope it helps. Probably in five minutes I'll remember another thing I wanted to say and feel dumb.

Sorry this is a little later than I was hoping, I spent most of yesterday on a train having gotten about 15 minutes of sleep the previous night. But I think you should have time to consider it before EoD? Anyways.

Good luck.

if you read someone as literally =rand that's 75-80 percent confidence in most setups!!!

also I didn't say this earlier because it was pedantic and kind of irrelevant but there's like a massive difference between being 98 percent confident of something and 100 percent confident of something????

no I don't think this is at all AI for bronana

[VOTE: c4e5d4g5] aubergine

glgl

my legacy is that if you have specific questions you want me to address tomorrow you should get them in by the halfway point if they're fast to answer and at the beginning of the day if they're slow to answer

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Jun 10, 2021 5:52 pm are either of them gonna self pres onto each other or

probably

I know I'm supposed to and I'll feel stupid if I don't and he's the wolf

if c4 is a wolf he's pretty much not trying to win the game at this point

does anyone know if giving up in situations where winning is unlikely is in-character for him

I didn't bring it up at the start of day 5 because I thought that the last wolf was obviously Syn and everyone would agree that it was obviously Syn and then the game would be over

and I didn't ... have a reason ... to bring it up when it looked like people might vote me instead? like I would have brought it up at EoD if I were actually in contention so people would know they could ask me about things the next day

it's not really an argument against voting me out unless you think that it would be substantially more useful to have a random wallpost in F3 than in F5

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Jun 10, 2021 5:06 pm Can I leave my vote on c4, but still be like ..um I think we should chop Aroot?

..why would you do that??

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Jun 10, 2021 4:44 pm Would Vul fake the jk thing on c4 as a partner?

I don't think he would do it on purpose

I don't find it super clearing for c4 because I actually kind of believe he was telling the truth that he wasn't trying to signal specifically a jailkeep on c4 to Marl?

I was specifically thinking of the post where Vulgard was like 'wow, I haven't seen anything meaningful from KZA, Dya, or c4' from like D1

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Thu Jun 10, 2021 4:18 pm arete, if you had full control of the next 3 chops, who would you chop and in what order?

probably ... you/Bronana/c4?? I guess?? in that order

which loses to Nutella/Outed Wolf/Dizzy but I have a hard time seeing any of them ever being wolves. I did have some Dizzyfoil earlier but I think it's largely outweighed by the evidence in favor of him being town

idk

I've been vaguely thinking that maybe Vul just really wanted to mess with us and that's how the c4 post happened but I don't actually think that's likely

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Jun 10, 2021 4:10 pm on the one hand arete talking about the post death prize thing feels like they really know they'll be using it which is concerning

on the other hand they say they won it early and only brought it up this phase so it can just be a mind game

I didn't bring it up in any of the early phases because I thought it would decrease the odds I would get nightkilled and I wanted to get nightkilled since I wasn't a PR

and then I didn't bring it up in any of the middle phases because it wasn't ever really relevant

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Jun 10, 2021 3:57 pm That’s not constructive. But yes, Arete, I’m interested in any new thoughts or insights that have developed if any.

I mean if I had any new insights that I thought actually meant something I would have said them

it's not like I'm sitting on the solve and just randomly choosing not to mention it for no reason

a thought I had was that, like, a lot of people keep trying to use things that are either NAI or actively town-AI as arguments that I'm not a wolf but I thought about it and I think it comes more from wanting me to be a wolf so that the game is easy and (general-)you don't have to figure out who the last wolf is than agenda (also a lot of people have done it and I'm pretty sure they can't be all wolves)

like for instance the thing that prompted this was someone, I forget who, was like 'maybe the reason Arete isn't pushing anyone specific as a wolf is because they're a wolf who doesn't know how to properly case anyone when we're all reasonably villagery villagers' and like ... being able to case people even when you're surrounded by villagers is pretty much wolfing 101? like, that's a skill I picked up (albeit not initially very *well*) in, like, my first three months of playing FM?? I'm not saying this is specifically an argument that I'm a villager but unless you think I am basically the least competent wolf you've ever met that's obviously not a particularly coherent point? and like, obviously you all aren't super familiar with my range, but the fact that in my last wolfgame I wrote a 5,600 word case on a villager who was widely considered to be cleared has come up in the thread

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Thu Jun 10, 2021 3:54 pm

Arete wrote: ↑Thu Jun 10, 2021 3:52 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Thu Jun 10, 2021 3:49 pm

Arete wrote: ↑Thu Jun 10, 2021 3:39 pm I'm sort of mrrr about SPF being like 'arete hasn't been digging into my alignment very much, which means they aren't really trying to solve my slot' when the entire reasoning behind my reads is PoE

(also I did in fact look into her allegedly-clearing Dya progression and didn't find it clearing, but)

i mean, my reads are largely based on POE too, i just havent really gotten the impression that youre super worried about whether or not im town?

like i do think that you have a solid chance at being the last wolf, but i'm also very worried about being wrong. i don't sense a similar sense of worry or concern from your end of things

I mean yeah I'm not super worried about being wrong because I've known for most of the day that I was probably getting voted out today and so my reads mostly don't actually "matter" in the sense of affecting the chances of the last wolf being voted out? like I feel like when I phrase it that way it sounds like I'm saying that I don't care about solving, which is false, but like, I don't expect that me reading you as a wolf-by-PoE, if you are a villager, is going to particularly influence anyone

that's still a super bad phrasing that completely fails to communicate what I'm actually trying to communicate

weh

on the contrary, if you feel like you're going to end up dying today, then isn't even more important to leave behind a solid legacy that you can feel good and confident about?

I mean no one has particularly cared about my reads for most of the game and I don't really expect that to change when I flip V

obviously I'm going to do my best to solve the game but, like, no one listened when I said Gavial was probably in his town meta, no one listened to my points in favor of Alison, and that was before I was (known to be) very vocally and demonstrably wrong, which I assume isn't going to increase people's confidence in my reads being accurate

(also as point of fact I have until sometime in the middle of tomorrow to leave a legacy provided that that legacy can fit into a single post, assuming the post-in-phase-after-death prize works the way I think it does)

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Jun 10, 2021 3:51 pm

Arete wrote: ↑Thu Jun 10, 2021 2:39 am

outed wolf wrote: ↑Thu Jun 10, 2021 2:34 am what about you arete, whats your 2 + you chop list given your potential death status very shortly

SPF is one

and then the other I'm less sure about

yesterday I would have said Bronana but I don't particularly believe he's a wolf??

but the only other people I could ever see being wolves are c4 and Dizzy, I have no idea what Vul was doing if c4 is a wolf and I have no idea what Dizzy was doing if Dizzy was a wolf

I guess I would probably go for Dizzy over Bronana as my second name just because Dizzy kind of feels like they're trying to discredit townclears e.g. with the c4 thing where they were like 'well there were already two wolves in the list so why *can't* there be a third' which feels like it's not really engaging with the reasons why people thought that that post was clearing

btw this post felt weird to me last night too

why do you have bronana in your poe and not visor?

Arete wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 1:42 am Outed Wolf

I went back and forth for a while on whether he or Bronana was the Villagerier Villager Who Gets To Be In The Towncore but ultimately I'm more confident in this one.

The first main reason is the treatment of Vulgard:
SPOILER: SHOW
his vague aspersions on our ability to read each other are probably not out of the range of distancing but I still don't really think he would go out of his way to make fun of Vul's skill as Mafia (with TMI that Vul, in fact, was 'powerwolfing' rather than 'just bad')

I know Zack disagrees here but it's super unnecessary (+ the posts in question feel like they're written from a PoV of genuinely believing that Vulgard is a villager)

there's also this string of posts from Dya:
SPOILER: SHOW
which honestly probably just spews both Visor and Zack town

the thing that's making me push Visor over Zack into lock territory is how he handled his EoD4, where he was basically like 'yolo, Dya and Syn are both V, let's kill SPF'

and obviously there's some WifoM here, but--

if he's a wolf on D4, he knows that he's the deepwolf who has to win endgame, that no matter what he does Dya is going to be dying in the next couple days and most likely that day

and I think he would be setting himself up to ... win ... by getting enough towncred to ride through the last couple days (something which he, relevantly, was already well positioned for -- he wasn't in anyone's PoE but Syn's -- if he were in the PoE this logic wouldn't really apply) (he had also already been pushing Dya!!)

there's no reason to go burn towncred for no reason when you're positioned to be able to win solo

he's just a villager

also probably villagers, but my PoE has room for three

I'm not going to go through and quote this as extensively as I'm quoting everyone else, but I do also think these people are probably town.

Bronana

I think his attempt to shade Vul starting D2 is a good look

I think the same Dyapost I quoted in the last section, talking about Visor, applies to him equally much

I thought his treatment of Dya was reasonably decent (semi active in pushing them but not in a way that felt like he was just a wolf with TMI -- there were some moments of villagery self-doubt), and there were a few posts that he wouldn't really need to make as wolf e.g. shutting down the people calling Amy/Dya aligned (which would be minus EV to do as scum)

I don't care about his treatment of KZA. I think wolves on D1 basically always knew KZA was going down.

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Thu Jun 10, 2021 3:49 pm

Arete wrote: ↑Thu Jun 10, 2021 3:39 pm I'm sort of mrrr about SPF being like 'arete hasn't been digging into my alignment very much, which means they aren't really trying to solve my slot' when the entire reasoning behind my reads is PoE

(also I did in fact look into her allegedly-clearing Dya progression and didn't find it clearing, but)

i mean, my reads are largely based on POE too, i just havent really gotten the impression that youre super worried about whether or not im town?

like i do think that you have a solid chance at being the last wolf, but i'm also very worried about being wrong. i don't sense a similar sense of worry or concern from your end of things

I mean yeah I'm not super worried about being wrong because I've known for most of the day that I was probably getting voted out today and so my reads mostly don't actually "matter" in the sense of affecting the chances of the last wolf being voted out? like I feel like when I phrase it that way it sounds like I'm saying that I don't care about solving, which is false, but like, I don't expect that me reading you as a wolf-by-PoE, if you are a villager, is going to particularly influence anyone

that's still a super bad phrasing that completely fails to communicate what I'm actually trying to communicate

weh

bronana wrote: ↑Thu Jun 10, 2021 3:39 pm your sassy response completely avoided the point I was making

you said he had "very yikes" posts then called him 98% town. that makes no sense to me

he had a post that I was pretty confident was not something he would be at all capable of writing on SPF (which I mentioned in that same post). however, he also had a couple of yikes posts, which meant I was 98 percent confident in him being a villager rather than ~100 percent confident in him being a villager.

I don't specifically remember which posts were the yikes ones but if it's really important I can check

I'm sort of mrrr about SPF being like 'arete hasn't been digging into my alignment very much, which means they aren't really trying to solve my slot' when the entire reasoning behind my reads is PoE

(also I did in fact look into her allegedly-clearing Dya progression and didn't find it clearing, but)

the actual reason I came back was to post something I'd realized about that Vul post that probably clears c4 but then I actually checked the game I was thinking of and I had misremembered something

lolarete

yes wow we get the point I spent the entire game harddefending Vul when I should have been able to catch him

that is in fact a thing I did! yes! I don't think anyone is unaware of that fact!

outed wolf wrote: ↑Thu Jun 10, 2021 2:34 am what about you arete, whats your 2 + you chop list given your potential death status very shortly

SPF is one

and then the other I'm less sure about

yesterday I would have said Bronana but I don't particularly believe he's a wolf??

but the only other people I could ever see being wolves are c4 and Dizzy, I have no idea what Vul was doing if c4 is a wolf and I have no idea what Dizzy was doing if Dizzy was a wolf

I guess I would probably go for Dizzy over Bronana as my second name just because Dizzy kind of feels like they're trying to discredit townclears e.g. with the c4 thing where they were like 'well there were already two wolves in the list so why *can't* there be a third' which feels like it's not really engaging with the reasons why people thought that that post was clearing

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Thu Jun 10, 2021 2:07 am if c4 is a villager then he's misreading me for the first time ever.

wouldn't be the first time something like that happened this game

[VOTE: SPF] aubergine

weh

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Wed Jun 09, 2021 3:50 pm I want the game to end today, but I don't know who to vote today. Town, be town.

I want to talk to c4 about his read/thoughts on me.

I want to talk to Arete about how they felt when Vulgard was mafia.

sorry I missed this before

uh

I was sad about it, and frustrated with myself for not catching him, and sad that this meant that we couldn't just automatically be masons in every V/V game in the future? I don't know what else to say that wouldn't just be ATE

I think I was less impacted by his wolf flip than I normally would have been because he had started lowkey lolcatting before EoD and I had semi resigned myself to the possibility of him flipping scum, so I didn't have the 'wait oh no he was a wolf' realization all at once

did you have any specific questions?

outed wolf being a wagon is confusing to me

I've found his interactions with the dead wolves to be generally very unlikely to be W/W

the arguments that it's him feel more like 'well he did something kind of weird and surface-level wolfsiding' than 'he is actually more likely to be a wolf than anyone else in the game'

bronana wrote: ↑Wed Jun 09, 2021 8:39 pm you are literally indistinguishable to an outted wolf

no he's an outed wolf can't you read his username

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Wed Jun 09, 2021 2:20 pm Arete, I haven't paid to much attention to before now. I find their posts a bit difficult to digest tbh. I tried reading their post about the Syn slot last day, and I just didn't follow. I've asked a couple of times about their relation to Vulgard, but I don't think I've gotten an answer. There's obviously a relationship there. I wonder if it's like me/Hally or something. The overt defence is absurd, and maybe absurd enough to be two wolves deciding to hard town read each other throughout the game. But I think Arete did it quicker and harder than Vulgard did. I want to check their reaction to Dya having them towards the bottom of their read list when they hadn't interacted much before that.

I don't know the exact details of you and Hally's friendship but I would say that Vul and I know each other ... reasonably well, given that we met each other online? I don't know, I'm always worried that if I say I'm friends with someone they'll be like 'wait no we're not friends don't say that it's weird.' Before this game I would have said that we had an Unshakeable Soulread that was Never Wrong on each other. Apparently that was not in fact the case, but that's the assumption I was working on this game.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Wed Jun 09, 2021 2:42 pm @Arete Did you ever react to the way Dya was reading you? How would you describe your interaction in general?

Not really, I was vaguely annoyed that they were hard townreading Vul and not really townreading me even though Vul was townreading me and has a good read on me but I didn't actually say that because I didn't want to only ever complain that people weren't townreading me enough. I found some of the things they were saying about signing up for a light game and finding themself in a game that no one else was treating as a light game to resonate me but I didn't say anything about it because I didn't really think it was AI and also I was worried that if Dya did turn out to be scum people would be like 'wow, you were defending them by saying that this resonated with you??? you must be their partner' and I didn't particularly think they were town. In terms of interactions, there were a couple points where they said something kind of and I questioned them on it, but nothing that I would say is outside-view strongly indicative in either direction.

For the record I feel like 'Arete didn't interact a lot with Dya, which makes them partners,' which I've seen a couple times, is ... silly? like if you think I'm a wolf then clearly I would be capable of interacting with my partners, seeing as how basically all I did the entire game until he died was interact with Vul.

bronana wrote: ↑Wed Jun 09, 2021 4:40 pm

Spoiler: show

Marluxion wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 6:47 pm I'm the jailkeeper and I targeted c4 last night. @c4e5g3d5 I don't think you are ever the night kill target last night, especially not with Amy alive. Not with Chloe Nutella arete and Vulgard alive.

Arete wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 6:49 pm okay well I guess my reads just suck then

:wowee:

ngl I thought bronana was softing jailkeeper who targeted Sunbae

Arete wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 6:50 pm[VOTE: c4] aubergine

Arete wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 6:55 pm @Marluxion

am I reading you correctly that you claimed to Vul in your neighborhood

he was already clear but if he can be extra clear that's cool too

Arete wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:02 pm Amy pointed this out already but it would be really weird for wolves to decide to just factional kill c4 (which could in theory happen), or any non-Amy target, while not roleblocking Amy

when marl claims he jk'd c4 ---> "well i guess my reads just suck then, vote: c4, wolves would never kill a non-amy target without roleblocking amy"

when sunbae counterclaims and says he jailed vulgard ---> "actually my reads are perfect and sunbae is a wolf, look at all these explanations for why amy wasn't roleblocked, i will make this point very aggressively and ridicule people who disagree"

?????

I don't really know how to explain this well but c4 wasn't ... a read I was confident in? a person that I expect to predictably read correctly? whereas Vul was. so when Marl said he had jailkept c4 I was like 'welp, guess the reason I had to think he was town wasn't actually true' and felt a little silly about having been (I thought at the time) wrong whereas when Sunbae said he jailkept Vul I was like 'no you DIDN'T he's a VILLAGER' and came up with what were admittedly increasingly questionable rationalizations for how he could be not a wolf.

(it's super late so if you have more questions for me I'll try to get to them tomorrow)

outed wolf wrote: ↑Wed Jun 09, 2021 4:05 am arete i dont think its hyperbole to say your solvingness has basically tanked since vulgard died

you wanna talk about that?

- I was wrong about a major read which was demotivating
- a lot of my previous focus had been on Vulgard because I was less sure how to read other people. when Vul died I was left with basically only people where I was like 'they're a good player and I don't know how to read them.'
- everyone else is posting less so I have fewer things to respond to

outed wolf wrote: ↑Wed Jun 09, 2021 3:10 am imnot super convicned its spf

walk me through it

I have good reasons to townread everyone else and I only have decent reasons to townread her

also I didn't like how she was like 'Arete had no progression from this post where they villageleaned Dya to this post where they said they were a wolf by association with Vul! I don't understand how they could get there' when the first post happened before the redcheck on Vul and the second post happened after he died and flipped scum, and the second post explicitly cited Vul associations as a reason for the read. she could have just had a derp moment though.

not the wolf

Nutella
Outed Wolf
Dizzy
c4
Bronana
SPF

the wolf

c4's been falling off for me a bit since my initial analysis yesterday because they're not doing much and maybe Vul decided to WifoM call out three of his partners for no reason????

SPF is my top suspect but I'm not confident in it

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Jun 08, 2021 11:22 pm the thing that concerns me the most about the arete/dya stuff is that arete didn't really mention dya much at all until they became the center of conversation, and i don't really see a clear thought process for how arete's read on dya shifted as the game went on

arete voted for dya on https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 03#p803603, but all of arete's thoughts about dya up until that point were: "null/no stance". i don't understand why arete felt inclined to vote someone that they presumably didn't scumread just to get them to answer a question faster - that doesn't really feel like arete's style as a villager from what i've observed from them

this is totally a thing I've done as village in the past

...I tried to go find examples for you but unfortunately FoL search sucks

(also the specific thing I was questioning them about was something that I found potentially wolfy pending their answer)

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Jun 08, 2021 11:22 pm i have a similar issue w/this post https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 07#p803607 - arete says that amy being tracker doesn't influence their read on dya even though their read on dya was totally non-existent up until this point. if this post is implying that arete was wolfreading dya, then where did the wolfread on dya come from? they seemed perfectly neutral about them in every post leading up to this point

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 24#p804124 - this post from dya's side of things is really weird too - dya accuses arete of "trying to find reasons to keep them as a wolf", but arete literally did not explicitly wolfread dyachei at any point. their vote on them wasn't even a wolfread, presumably. so why does dya react like that?

I had Dya as 'vaguely PoE so >rand to be scum' which I expressed here: https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 49#p802049

it wasn't a confident scumread or anything

I don't know why Dya reacted like that, I'm not Dya

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Jun 08, 2021 11:22 pm
arete's progression on dya gets even more confusing when they state a reason to townread dya on https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 68#p804868, and then ends up voting them again on https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 48#p809148 because of their read on vulgard being wolfy "in hindsight"

the first post was before Vulgard was redchecked, the second was after they were redchecked, also all the reasons I gave in the second post for voting them were things that happened after I wrote the first post. shockingly, sometimes when things happen in the game, it affects my reads, particularly when 'things' is 'someone I had thought was a villager flips scum,' idk why that wouldn't make sense

weh

I'm not a fan of this post from SPF because I feel like a lot of the things they're shading me for have really obvious explanations but I might be biased because it's about me

bronana wrote: ↑Tue Jun 08, 2021 7:13 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Jun 08, 2021 7:11 pm dizzy and i both just *feel* it's not arete, idk maybe i'm being dumb and zack is right but their disappointment seemed real and their solving yesterday was p good i thought, and seemed like they genuinely hoped/expected syn to end it

meh we can still go there maybe im dumb

everyone and the mother has you as top town since d1, you're alive on d6, has it occurred to you that you may be wrong?

like cmon, if spf kills marl over you what the fuck is she even doing

tbf Nutella being alive on D6 probably doesn't mean much for the likelihood of her reads being accurate
like

-the night 1 kill might have been a reads kill or might have been a PR hunt on Hally
-the night 2 kill was blocked
-the night 3 kill was on the claimed jailkeeper
-the night 4 kill was on the claimed tracker
-the night 5 kill could actually have viably targeted Nutella

anyways

I also have no idea what to look at to figure it out beyond 'reading people's posts' which is super vague

so if anyone has something in particular that they want someone to look into but don't actually want to look into themself, let me know and I can try to look into it?

um also I won a 'single post in day phase following death' prize back on night 1 so if I get voted out then tomorrow if people have any questions for me you can post them in the thread and I'll do my best to answer them

Okay I'm going to be honest I have no idea who the last wolf is

I know I'm supposed to be like 'as a Member Of The PoE With Special Insight Into The Game, I Have Determined The Exact Solve' but in fact, no

like I guess by PoE it's probably SPF?? but I'm not confident in that

glgl

just remembered it was EoD :wowee:

@Marluxion

do you have anything to say about Vul's neighborhood spew that you haven't already

if Syn is a villager I think you are one of the more likely people to die tonight

hello fellow people who are extremely actively engaged with the game

I too am extremely actively engaged with the game

why it's just Syn

Marl asked me to specifically case Chloe; I'm not going to do that, because I actually think Chloe is the villageriest out of the three of them, but I do think she did some things that points to the slot being Mafia.

the slot's posting (associative-independent)

Tangy's posting I actually wrote about at the time and I basically stand by what I said then:

Arete wrote: ↑Mon May 24, 2021 11:47 pm reading Tangrowth's catch-up posts I think they're >rand wolf

looking first at the catchup posts themself (please bear with my poor post formatting)

Tangrowth wrote: ↑Mon May 24, 2021 10:00 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Mon May 24, 2021 6:35 pm I just got a raise ama

Yay!!

Tangrowth wrote: ↑Mon May 24, 2021 10:04 pm

bronana wrote: ↑Mon May 24, 2021 7:21 pm

outed wolf wrote: ↑Mon May 24, 2021 7:19 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Mon May 24, 2021 7:18 pm might be a sucker but i kinda doubt w!amy dumps on zack first thing

i don’t think w!her sees zack as a viable push early on

dont wanna marsh your mellow but its an insignificant push early on in the game, i dont think anything of it. i doubt w or v amy expect to go anywhere with it (and zacks perfectly pushable cmon. just look at that face)

Here he comes. Here comes John Wayne. "I'm not gonna cry about my pa. I'm gonna build an airport, put my name on it."

Why, outed wolf? So you can fly away from your feelings?

I'm going to have a really hard time ever voting for someone quoting Arrested Development.

Tangrowth wrote: ↑Mon May 24, 2021 10:05 pm

dyachei wrote: ↑Mon May 24, 2021 7:25 pmsup

Omg is this finally our first game together? Speaking of which, pretty sure this is my first game with a decent lot of you, so this should be interesting. Does anyone other than bronana or outed wolf normally go by another username?

Tangrowth wrote: ↑Mon May 24, 2021 10:07 pm I hate to be this person, but I feel like I need to ask for a TL;DR summary of what happened in Rocks Fall and/or any other games that are often spoken about that I wasn't in, lol.

Tangrowth wrote: ↑Mon May 24, 2021 10:11 pm

bronana wrote: ↑Mon May 24, 2021 8:59 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Mon May 24, 2021 8:56 pm so you don't even know why you voted me? cool

visor hasn't given a reason either

worst vibes are from him tbh

what? is this directed at me? I gave a perfectly cromulent explanation when I voted. Also it's an two hours into a 48 hour d1 so lol.

is it normal for nutella to be this ... passive-aggressive?

She does seem more perturbed than usual, not sure what to make of that (from an alignment perspective), otherwise I think it's understandable.

Tangrowth wrote: ↑Mon May 24, 2021 10:16 pm Well, that was a weird catchup. I appreciate that stances are being made, but I'm a bit uneasy with the current vibes, I sort of think taking a step back from the main topic of discussion is probably warranted. Not that I'm trying to tell anyone what do! Just let's have some fun, right? This is a racket game, it should be fun!

I'm curious why Amy parked a vote on Alison, was it because Alison doesn't have any stances?

The bulk of their "catch-up" consists of either not-super-game-relevant comments (congratulating Nutella on the raise, talking about Arrested Development, etc.), or asking not-alignment-relevant-questions (e.g. asking if anyone goes by any other names). While those aren't wolfy in a vacuum (the plays-Mafia-primarily-socially archetype could totally want to congratulate their friend on a raise regardless of alignment, and anyone might be curious whether other people have an additional name) their catchup posts have almost nothing that actually displays a solving thought process -- the closest is asking why Amy parked a vote on Alison, and the take of Nutella. I think I'm explaining it really badly but basically it doesn't feel like the sort of catchup post that would be produced by someone catching up and thinking about what alignment people are as opposed to thinking about how to look vaguely productive.

her posts post catchup are a little better:

Tangrowth wrote: ↑Mon May 24, 2021 10:18 pm Does someone want to talk to me about how to find spf as town (or scum, for that matter)? I saw her play in some of Jay's games I spectated but beyond that I'm at a loss for what she's said so far, it was... thorough. But I don't think I'd call spf a town read or anything.

Tangrowth wrote: ↑Mon May 24, 2021 10:51 pm I need to start combining my posts, but I currently would call nutella town, for whatever that's worth.

Tangrowth wrote: ↑Mon May 24, 2021 11:11 pm I could just be scared of Amy pulling the wool over my eyes like in the voxx 9er, hehe, but I'm not feeling it yet. Can someone talk to me about why she's town?

in the sense that she actually has opinions at all, but overall her questions also seem pretty fillery. Some amount of fillery questions is normal as any alignment but this feels like a really unusually high density of filler questions, which usually indicates scum trying to look solvey.

[VOTE: Tangrowth] aubergine

later she wrote a readlist. I remember liking it at the time but it's probably fakeable. meh.

Chloe's posting was actually fine, there's nothing in particular that I can point to and be like 'this post is wolfy ' that doesn't fit into either of the next two sections, I had a mostly positive impression of it in the moment

caveat that this:

Arete wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 8:58 pm incidentally re:Chloe I've felt that her posts since subbing in have mostly seemed to track, like it doesn't feel like she has a specific predetermined destination that she's trying to get to but rather that they're flowing naturally

is actually not something I believed at all, I was trying to draw the nightkill by crumbing tracker and picked someone I thought I would plausibly have targeted

Syn's posting has been ... not good. Even if I set aside the Dya thing as maybe just a wrong villager, they haven't really done much of anything/tried to advance their reads. For example, they've said repeatedly that the last wolf is Outed Wolf. However, they voted me earlier for what is self-admittedly self-pres:

Syn wrote: ↑Sun Jun 06, 2021 1:25 am

Arete wrote: ↑Sun Jun 06, 2021 1:12 am

Syn wrote: ↑Sun Jun 06, 2021 1:08 am[VOTE: Arete] aubergine

ok this one I'm going to need an actual explanation for, it doesn't really feel consistent with what you've been saying for the rest of the day

kind of feels like you're pushing me specifically because I'm a viable alternative to you

well yeah

which is honestly kind of wolfy in a vacuum this far before EoD (obviously it's fine to self-pres at EoD), but beyond that, Visor has (a) votes (b) more votes than me, this has been true for several hours, and yet they haven't switched to voting Visor, which is totally inconsistent with their supposed PoV of Visor being the last wolf.

there's also this string of posts:
having skimmed KZA's Iso, I don't think this is a take/level of confidence that makes sense from a fully uninformed perspective (and when I asked them about it at the time, they didn't really give me an explanation for it). it makes way more sense for them having been told in wolf chat 'hey, Vulgard is mechanically outed' and trying to retroactively find a way to justify having that read without admitting to that knowledge.

how wolves treated the slot

KZA never mentioned or responded to them in any way, that's not particularly damning because there are a bunch of people it applies to but I figured I'd mention it

Dya spent most of the game harddefending the slot for relatively thin reasons. this is honestly one of the things I mean when I say that the extent of the mutual defense is giving me pause because it almost seems to blatant but I'm probably just overthinking it
they then reversed their read mid-day-3 with basically no progression:
this was around when they were starting to get a lot of heat, both for being wrong on Alison and for associations with Vul. I think the timing of the random sudden turnaround makes a lot of sense for 'wolf going into antispew' especially given that they had ~no progression on it, and it doesn't really make sense as a last-ditch attempt to save themself/buy themself a day because there were other targets that I think would have likely been more pushable + they would have had more progression on -- Syn was also PoE but I think before Dya flipped c4 was more pushable than Syn

(they also never tried to hedge against the possibility of Syn being town after they started pushing them, though that's not damning because they didn't really do that with Alison either)
furthermore, despite claiming they would be "shocked" if Syn is not a wolf, they never voted Syn throughout all of day 4 (they did vote Chloe on D3 but Chloe was never going over D3), which further makes it unlikely that they were actually trying to get Syn killed as a last misexe as opposed to distancing from them

also this might just be a wording thing but in the nested quote I just quoted, they said 'I still think it's syn/c4. if it's not c4, it might be you' which acknowledges the possibility of c4 being a villager but doesn't acknowledge the possibility of Syn being a villager
Vul attempts to subtly push me away from them even before they actually call them a villager in a way that makes me think he was actually trying to save the slot (he also writes a wallpost later on why they're town, but I weirdly think that's less important because 'wallposts on why villagers are villagers' is reasonably plausible to come from a wolf whereas I think these posts indicate that he actually wanted to save them -- particularly the way he specifically pointed me at Tangy's readlist, which was something that he would reasonably have expected I would townread)

overall nothing here is outside of the range of partnered interactions and some of the interactions look actively partnery


how this slot treated wolves

okay so I'm not going to actually quote all the posts where the various residents of this slot were wrong about various members of the wolfteam, although there are a lot of them despite there being three different members of the slot with the potential to read them correctly. that could in theory just be 'oh they were villagers who read people wrong,' Lord knows I'm in no place to judge

but even setting all of that aside there are some interactions that I think are specifically partnery

Chloe spent most of D2 harddefending Alison, and saying that her behavior didn't make sense as a wolf. then, at the end of the day, when it became clear that Dya/Alison were going to be the wagons, they invented a reason to vote Alison without actually making a read on their alignment, just focusing on the fact that Dya was contributing more, which is a really easy excuse to vote Alison over them -- also, one of their previous reasons to think Alison was a villager was that they weren't really doing much/their plan didn't make sense as wolf, so them turning that into a reason to vote Alison is Not Great. this is a weaker point but I kind of think these two posts TMI Dya W -- Syn is, at this point, repping a V-read on Dya, but they also seem to expect to be wolfread by association with Dya (in the first one)?? and then in the second one they go out of their way to talk about how they wouldn't be defending Dya so hard as W/W even though Dya at this point hasn't flipped and Syn is claiming to expect them to flip W. in context it's calling the collective process of town bad but there wasn't anyone else who we-collectively were preflipping as aligned at that point, so I'm not really sure why they would make that post as a villager who genuinely believed that Dya was going to flip V.

bronana wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 1:57 am seems cromulent

minor quibble that if you check the timing, I think I was the first person to bring up kza in a negative way and the first person to vote him (where I stayed until eod iirc), so I think "it doesn't matter because kza was always going down" is a little uncharitable

ehh

probably a better look than not being the first person but doesn't especially move the needle for me -- like, I feel like even before anyone particularly started pushing them 'the person who wrote 11 posts none of which are good' was probably going down early

anyways I don't actually think this game is particularly hard

Arete
bronana
c4e5g3d5
Dyslexicon
Marluxion
nutella
outed wolf
staypositivefriend
Tangrowth / Chloe / Syn


to lock the game we need five correct clears from that group

five people that I think are always clear

Marl
bearing in mind that if wolves were paying minimal attention to Amy's posts, they knew that Vul was redchecked, I don't think this is ~ever theater

like for me to believe that Marl is a wolf I basically have to imagine wolfchat going like

'hey so I'm redchecked, what do'
'I know, I'll fakeclaim jailkeeper and accuse a different villager of being a wolf, and pretend you were softing it to me in neighborhood chat'
'good idea! I will proceed to dip from the thread for eight hours, and then when I come back I'll say that you completely misunderstood what I was softing!'
'so ... what does this accomplish for us, again?'
'literally nothing'
'perfect'

there's also the derpclear which is ~always real, and more generally the fact that he hasn't really been playing to his wolf meta, and everything else about the neighborhood (no offense to Marl but I don't think he's a good enough wolf to invent an entire neighborhood full of nuanced Vulgard reads that, even filtered through him, are explained the way that Vulgard explains his reads)

Dizzy Dizzy's read here is kind of hedgy but also I don't think he ever makes it if the team is Vul/Dya/Dizzy. Like, in that world, Vul is the deepest wolf, the one all the other wolves are counting on to win the game if the rest of them die sooner. If that's the team, then not only is Dizzy shading the deepest wolf for no reason, and shading Dya unnecessarily, he's also specifically tying the wolf that's supposed to go deep to the wolf who's likely getting get voted out that day or the next, which would be really really dumb. Dizzy's just a villager here.

c4e5g3d5

this one is one of my more Controversial ones so I'm going to try my best to explain it well

first of all, there's this post from Vul:

Vulgard wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 4:38 am c4, dya and KZA are in the "no impressions made" club and I would like them to play the game. I do not townread c4 for a carefully voiced scumread (?) on SPF. That's in any average wolf's wolfrange and I think SPF is too quick to clear them regardless of alignment.

dya and KZA just haven't talked about the game much yet. Dya got offended based on a single accusation if I read that correctly, and KZA 5-posted and dipped.

If this is W/W/W then ... what was Vul even doing.

I also think c4's posting has some good looks for him on its own merits

actually reading through his early posting some of it isn't nearly as good as I remember (e.g. I was thinking he had been tunnelling Dya all game but he was shielding them on D1), but I think his later push on Dya is overall a good look for him (particularly given that he basically ignored KZA all game -- if he wanted to hardbus his partners, why would he not hardbus the extremely low-hanging slanker on D1?

spoiler has quotes but I think I messed up the order
(he was also on Dya D2 which is a minor point in his favor but if he were scum he didn't really have other options)

there's also this post:

c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 5:57 pm So much for me TMIing Alison

right before the Alison flip, when she didn't come back and claim PR

I think this displays a genuine PoV of expecting Alison to flip scum, I wouldn't expect a wolf of the skill level I perceive c4 as having to fake something like that

Nutella

this one is mostly associative
the short explanation is 'literally just read the quotes'

the slightly longer explanation is 'throughout Dya's Iso, they either display seemingly-genuine annoyance towards Nutella, or appeal to her in a blatantly W/V way. furthermore, throughout these quotes, Nutella is seemingly trying to solve Dya's alignment, so it's not just your standard "be aggressive to each other and hope people call it not-W/W"'

Outed Wolf

I went back and forth for a while on whether he or Bronana was the Villagerier Villager Who Gets To Be In The Towncore but ultimately I'm more confident in this one.

The first main reason is the treatment of Vulgard:
his vague aspersions on our ability to read each other are probably not out of the range of distancing but I still don't really think he would go out of his way to make fun of Vul's skill as Mafia (with TMI that Vul, in fact, was 'powerwolfing' rather than 'just bad')

I know Zack disagrees here but it's super unnecessary (+ the posts in question feel like they're written from a PoV of genuinely believing that Vulgard is a villager)

there's also this string of posts from Dya: which honestly probably just spews both Visor and Zack town

the thing that's making me push Visor over Zack into lock territory is how he handled his EoD4, where he was basically like 'yolo, Dya and Syn are both V, let's kill SPF'

and obviously there's some WifoM here, but--

if he's a wolf on D4, he knows that he's the deepwolf who has to win endgame, that no matter what he does Dya is going to be dying in the next couple days and most likely that day

and I think he would be setting himself up to ... win ... by getting enough towncred to ride through the last couple days (something which he, relevantly, was already well positioned for -- he wasn't in anyone's PoE but Syn's -- if he were in the PoE this logic wouldn't really apply) (he had also already been pushing Dya!!)

there's no reason to go burn towncred for no reason when you're positioned to be able to win solo

he's just a villager

also probably villagers, but my PoE has room for three

I'm not going to go through and quote this as extensively as I'm quoting everyone else, but I do also think these people are probably town.

Bronana

I think his attempt to shade Vul starting D2 is a good look

I think the same Dyapost I quoted in the last section, talking about Visor, applies to him equally much

I thought his treatment of Dya was reasonably decent (semi active in pushing them but not in a way that felt like he was just a wolf with TMI -- there were some moments of villagery self-doubt), and there were a few posts that he wouldn't really need to make as wolf e.g. shutting down the people calling Amy/Dya aligned (which would be minus EV to do as scum)

I don't care about his treatment of KZA. I think wolves on D1 basically always knew KZA was going down.


SPF

I think her posts have felt ~reasonably villagery and thoughtful~

also she pushed Dyachei, which is cool, I guess.

fwiw I specifically re-read the parts of her Iso that are about Dyachei, since she seemed to think I should be townreading her for them, and I didn't find anything that made me think that it definitely wasn't a bus. there were also a couple parts that weren't great, such as when she tried to tie Dyachei and Alison together as a potential W/W pair.

not super confident in her being a villager but I think it's more likely than not

Syn

Syn

I think this is just the last wolf

I'm going to write up a second post with all of my reasons for thinking it's just them but the reasons I have for townreading them are all weak -- Chloe had a couple mildly villagery posts + a couple posts that look disassociated with Vul, and there's a part of my brain that's like 'would this slot really defend every wolf, and be harddefended by Vul and Dya, if they were actually a wolf???' but I don't think there's anything really overriding all of the reasons I think it's just them





----

anyways

for how long this post took me to write it feels kind of ~underwhelming~ but I hope it's helpful

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sun Jun 06, 2021 8:01 pm

Arete wrote: ↑Sun Jun 06, 2021 7:59 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sun Jun 06, 2021 7:57 pm i dont get how you think my push on dyachei could ever be a bus, in general

someone in champs spec chat mentioned like a month ago that you really like bussing

I guess I don't actually know if that's true

oh that's definitely true, i tend to hardbus a lot when i'm a wolf, but it's usually done w/the intent to maximize as much towncred as possible - whereas my push in dyachei this game was more like: "this person is kinda obviously a wolf to me and i'm just going to continue focusing on them until everyone else comes to their senses", there would be more flashiness and struggles to hold back my TMI in a world where i committed to hardbussing dyachei in that way

i think it's odd that you presumably have a very obvious reason to townread me (ie: "spf pushed on a wolf across multiple dayphases"), but you're deliberately preventing yourself from townreading me for that because of meta, instead of evaluating the push individually of your meta on me and determining if you think it's W/W

if you want to not be in my PoE your task is not 'be villagery' it's 'be more likely a villager than everyone in my PoE and at least one person not in my PoE'

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sun Jun 06, 2021 7:57 pm i dont get how you think my push on dyachei could ever be a bus, in general

someone in champs spec chat mentioned like a month ago that you really like bussing

I guess I don't actually know if that's true

bronana wrote: ↑Sun Jun 06, 2021 7:47 pm

Arete wrote: ↑Sun Jun 06, 2021 2:23 am

outed wolf wrote: ↑Sun Jun 06, 2021 2:19 am so what do you think arete?

do you think syn is the wolf? if not syn where next?

yes I think Syn's the wolf

I feel like I've been pretty clear on that point??

I'm in the process of writing up a longer point explaining my locks + PoE, right now I have Marl/Dizzy/c4/Nut as locks and SPF/Syn as PoE, I'm trying to figure out which of you and Bronana I should stake the game on being town (I think you're both villagers but I have room in my PoE for one more person, so)

i am confused, you list spf in your immediate POE but you don't talk about it at all in your iso afaict. that's a pretty spicy read so ? where's your head at

I don't scumread SPF I just don't have strong reasons to townread them, which is what a PoE ... is

like with Marl I can be like 'yes wow this interaction with Vulgard is never W/W' whereas with SPF I'm like 'yeah idk her posts are villagery'

like I do think it's just Syn, if people are seriously considering killing not-Syn I can case them, but I have room in the PoE for two additional people that I think are probably villagers but not locktown

I am still writing up the longer post that I mentioned in the post you quoted

wowee

outed wolf wrote: ↑Sun Jun 06, 2021 7:15 pm i scrolled past it mostly lmao sorry

you don't have to apologize

if you'd actually read it I was going to say there was no way a wolf would ever bother to go read 5000 words of wolf!me casing another player when they have TMI that I'm a villager and they don't need to especially try to get me voted out at some point but I don't think you not reading it is wolfy

outed wolf wrote: ↑Sun Jun 06, 2021 7:12 pm

bronana wrote: ↑Sun Jun 06, 2021 7:08 pm did you read those arete wolfgames?

i skimmed them. in one he posts 5.6k wall as a wolf as to why they should kill this other guy but kill him first. it seemed like some kind of hail mary

he certainly seems capable of pushing/voting his bros from what i can tell (that was the main thing i wanted to see)

hm

did you actually read the wallpost in question (I promise I have a reason for asking this)

bronana wrote: ↑Sun Jun 06, 2021 6:36 pm

Arete wrote: ↑Sun Jun 06, 2021 6:31 pm like even if you think that's NAI the conclusion that makes sense to have is 'arete is making reads for dumb reasons' not 'visor is trying to get people to clear him for dumb reasons'

???

it was a direct response to 4220

"Do you honestly think I push dya from the start of the game and fake mock vulgard for the gavial stuff?

Honestly."

apparently I can't read

weh

like even if you think that's NAI the conclusion that makes sense to have is 'arete is making reads for dumb reasons' not 'visor is trying to get people to clear him for dumb reasons'