The Syndicate

bronana wrote: ↑Sun Jun 06, 2021 6:22 pm I am just saying you mocking vulgard isn't clearing like you suggested it should be

I think I was the one who suggested that actually

outed wolf wrote: ↑Sun Jun 06, 2021 2:19 am so what do you think arete?

do you think syn is the wolf? if not syn where next?

yes I think Syn's the wolf

I feel like I've been pretty clear on that point??

I'm in the process of writing up a longer point explaining my locks + PoE, right now I have Marl/Dizzy/c4/Nut as locks and SPF/Syn as PoE, I'm trying to figure out which of you and Bronana I should stake the game on being town (I think you're both villagers but I have room in my PoE for one more person, so)

outed wolf wrote: ↑Sun Jun 06, 2021 2:10 am nutella what do you make of dizzy voting you

what do you think of dizzy i guess too (everyone)

don't really think the post on D2 where he specifically shades Vul as being potentially a wolf with Dya happens if he's a wolf with Vul and Dya

outed wolf wrote: ↑Sun Jun 06, 2021 1:32 am i agree it is not great bussing

it is however bussing that is pretty common

I literally do not think I have ever done that

I mean if I were going to vote Dya as W/W I would talk about them

voting them and not talking about them would just be stupid, it's like all the bad parts of bussing (getting your partners killed) minus the part where it benefits you in any way

outed wolf wrote: ↑Sun Jun 06, 2021 1:25 am d2 you finally give one question to dya about something c4 said which is then enough to vote dya apparently (you do go on a bit more but then you end up townreading them)

outed wolf wrote: ↑Sun Jun 06, 2021 1:26 am i mean you did vote dya which is something, but it doesnt feel like any sort of actual commitment behind the vote

that's because I didn't really have particularly strong feelings that Dya was a wolf

I just thought Alison had been villagerier

that kind of faded towards EoD when I realized that she was just going to continue not doing anything but my vote on Dya was way more about Alison than about Dya

Syn wrote: ↑Sun Jun 06, 2021 1:08 am[VOTE: Arete] aubergine

ok this one I'm going to need an actual explanation for, it doesn't really feel consistent with what you've been saying for the rest of the day

kind of feels like you're pushing me specifically because I'm a viable alternative to you

outed wolf wrote: ↑Sun Jun 06, 2021 1:02 am [VOTE: arete] aubergine

hi

mildly curious whether this is related at all to the question you just asked about my meta

outed wolf wrote: ↑Sun Jun 06, 2021 12:35 am Arete, when was the last time you randed wolf

last wolfgame was a UPick on ToL in April, https://forum.throneoflies.com/t/return ... uess/87351

technically I subbed into that one mid-D1, I'm pretty sure that when you say 'randed' it's not actually important that I be there at rand but if you want to look at my openers or something the last time I was in game at rand was December/January, M16 on the Chief Delphi-in-exile corner of M451, https://forum.mafia451.com/t/m16-game-thread/4652

to Iso on Discourse, click on my PFP, then click where it says "[some number] posts in topic"

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Jun 05, 2021 6:09 pm [VOTE: Nutella] aubergine

I’m not like other mafia players.

I thought the way Dya was treating her was emblematic of a wolf appealing to a villager

I skimmed Dyachei's Iso overnight and the only reservation I can come up with for Synslot being Mafia is 'would that slot and the dead wolves really have shielded each other that hard if that slot is a wolf'

whereas I have actually good reasons to townread everyone else (and some reason to think that slot is specifically Mafia -- Chloe's handling of EoD2 is pretty bad in light of Dya's flip)

[VOTE: Syn] aubergine

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 5:45 pm what are your general feelings about the gamestate, arete? do you feel like we're in a good position? are you worried about anything? what's dya gonna flip?

I think Dya is going to flip scum

so on that basis I'm feeling pretty okay about the gamestate

I think we're in a generally good position, there's a bunch of people who are pretty clearable so we can probably just solve by PoE even if we're not 100 percent confident in who the last wolf is

but I am worried a bit about the second-wolf-if-Dya-is-scum (or if they're not but some of this only applies if they are) the easy answer is Syn but Chloe had some villagery moments that make me less confident there and I don't think c4 is a wolf with Dya, which does make me worried that there might be a wolf deeper than the consensus-immediate-PoE

also I'm worried that everyone is going to not want to play with me anymore but that's going to happen regardless of what happens today

hi

checking in for EoD

is anything happening/does anyone want my opinion on anything

fwiw I know that everyone always says this and half the time they don't follow through but I should be able to be more active/less ~underwhelming~ tomorrow (as in game-day tomorrow not real-world tomorrow)

amazingly thinking 'light game' meant 'I can play during finals' is not the dumbest thing I've done all game

I can't really respond to the point on Vulgard because ... yeah, I sure did misread the player I thought I had a godread on, to the point of accusing an unCCed PR over him. that is a thing that happened this game.

I think probably I would have handled the redcheck differently as scum but I guess I don't know for sure

oh

I have great timing

tbh the biggest thing making it hard for me to see Dya being not a wolf is how Vul handled things approaching EoD2

like if that was V/V it makes objectively more sense for him to just stick with voting Dya, who he had been saying was more likely wolf than Alison (who he spent most of the day calling a villager), there's no reason for him to not just do that

maaayyybe 'thinking he would switch to wolfreading Alison as villa' but

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 2:14 am hey arete, who do you think you have the highest chance of misreading in the people outside of your current POE?

hm

my current not-PoE is (Amy)/Marl/Visor/Bronana/Dizzy

out of those I think my reasons for clearing Bronana are the weakest since my reasons for clearing him are essentially his shade on Vul D2 + the specific way Vul approached his read on him, both of which are probably fakeable by experienced wolfteam

if I had to arrange reads by 'how strong are the best reasons I have for townreading them' it looks something like

Amy > Marl > Outed Wolf > [c4 given Dya wolf] > Dizzy > Bronana > [if this PoE is correct we have enough exes to kill everyone after this line + me] > SPF > [c4 given Dya V] > Syn > Dya

which is a pretty boring readlist but there are a bunch of people who are obviously not partnered with Vul

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 2:08 am
Syn wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 1:39 am
Marluxion wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 1:37 am idk
it seems like everyone's wim is low, so my motivation to put in a lot of work is lacking too
not even a whole page in the 10 hours since i slept

prob go syn after dyachei if they are wolf
probably spf if dya is town unless dya has any specific direction they want us to go

isnt outed wolf ur top wolfread? why do u agree w/this post when it doesn't mention killing your number one wolfread at any point in the near future?

isn't the nodding head dude, like, always sarcastic

Arete wrote: ↑Tue Jun 01, 2021 3:23 am
Outed Wolf is never a wolf with Vulgard
Spoiler: show

outed wolf wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 8:40 pm
Arete wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 8:37 pm
outed wolf wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 8:32 pm
Arete wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 8:29 pm
outed wolf wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 7:31 pm
Arete wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 7:29 pm
his godread on me is real and supported by an extensive history of games as both V/V and V/W
much like his extensive history of games with seth eh?
I'm sort of mrrr about how Outed Wolf is trying to discredit townreads on me/reasons to townread me without actually pushing for me to get killed (or even really expressing more than a slight scumread on me)
it kind of feels like he's trying to make sure that I'm a viable push for the future but doesn't want to get his hands dirty pushing me now
LOL
hilarious post - i said i thought you were a villager yesterday, the post is making light of vulgard not you
alright, what was your motivation behind discrediting Vul's reads?
... because he was wrong? he spent like 80 posts yesterday saying how much of a gavial god reader he was and that we couldnt let gavial slip away and we had to kill gavial
with his EXTENSIVE history of catching gavial and hes NEVER BEEN WRONG BEFORE
and he was wrong.
W R O N G
R
O
N
G
INCORRECT
NOT RIGHT
so i gave him a bit of shit for it

This post ~never comes from a partner in my opinion, there's no need to try to rub your partner's face in how they were WRONG and BAD and MISREAD SOMEONE IN A GAME OF MAFIA when you in fact have TMI that they they didn't do that. It's relevant to me that he wasn't (in this post) trying to shade him off of it, which is what I would expect from distancing, but rather to make fun of him, which doesn't make sense from the PoV of a wolf talking about another wolf.

@Syn

can you glance at this paragraph and tell me what you think

IMO the Outed Wolf/Vul associations are very unlikely to be W/W (for this and other reasons, but I think this one is way less likely to be distancing)

(I also don't think Outed Wolf would repeatedly go out of his way to say that I suck at the game as W but this is a weaker point)

dyachei wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 6:04 pm I still think it's syn/c4. if it's not c4, it might be you

what if it's not Syn (but is c4)

or do you think Syn is ~lock wolf

oh also

I think Vul's very early posts (before I started to openly TR him) are less likely to contain things that hard align him with a partner, because I think he would have expected that I would catch him, or at least that it was reasonably likely that I would catch him. this doesn't affect that much because I was TRing him pretty early but it could maybe be relevant to his read on SPF? I'm on mobile and about to sleep so I can't fact check the details of his read there but I'll try to remember to do it in the morning.

outed wolf wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 4:22 am arete, you've played with vul plenty, how does he tend to treat his partners? anything we should be looking for to clear/condemn people?

uhhh

not really, he's pretty versatile with regards to how he treats them

he does prefer powerwolfing/defending his partners but he's not in principle opposed to bussing (and in particular, if he doesn't think a partner is saveable he'll usually try to pivot to a bus). I think he would be mildly less inclined to bus in this game because the last time he tried bussing a partner he cased them and figured no one would listen, and then everyone listened, and so I think he would be less likely to try to do that again?

he's not the sort of wolf that's incapable of talking about or interacting with his partners

11 players currently alive

9 villagers 2 wolves

9v2 -> misexe -> nightkill -> 7v2 -> misexe -> nightkill -> 5v2 -> misexe -> nightkill -> 3v2 (LyLo)

so we have three misexes left before LyLo, the fourth makes us lose

which means we need a PoE of five people that contains both wolves

444 Amy - post history
393 bronana - post history
316 c4e5g3d5 - post history
428 dyachei - post history
379 Dyslexicon - post history
374 Marluxion - post history
464 nutella - post history
393 outed wolf - post history
389 staypositivefriend - post history
132 Tangrowth - post history / Chloe - post history / Syn - post history

Amy is the tracker
Marl isn't partnered with Vul
Outed Wolf isn't partnered with Vul. also I think he would be less likely to go out of his way to repeatedly insult my play if he were a wolf but I guess technically he could just be Like That.
Dizzy probably isn't partnered with Vul
Bronana probably isn't partnered with Vul
everyone else who's familiar with her seems to think Nutella is super villagery, I think I'm willing to sponge that.

316 c4e5g3d5 - post history
428 dyachei - post history
389 staypositivefriend - post history
132 Tangrowth - post history / Chloe - post history / Syn - post history
^ I think all wolves are within the PoE^

so we should have lock assuming none of my clears are wrong? (I intentionally only accounted for four people in my PoE in case you all want to kill me for being wrong about Vul's alignment)

ALSO I don't think c4 is a wolf with Dya because of Vul's post about c4/Dya/KZA which I don't think he makes if that's the exact team. so if Dya actually flips scum we can take him out of the PoE and have an extra execution left to use on someone.

does anyone want to dispute any of my clears (besides c4 disagreeing with Dizzy, I already know he disagrees with Dizzy)

I think for me right now Syn's alignment is probably the most important to solve, which is really inconvenient because the three people who have occupied that slot are giving me pings in opposite directions. They're a slot that sticks out as particularly important because they're more or less the 'do we have a deepwolf' slot -- like, as in, I don't think Dya and c4 can be W/W based on how Vul treated them, so if Syn is town that means we do have a deepwolf.

So I guess I'm going to just ... collect my thoughts into a single post, and list off the points in favor of it and against it?

points in favor:

- Chloe had a handful of posts that I think she would find ... not difficult to fake if they occurred to her, but I don't think they would occur to her to fake (P#1400, P#1672 stick out here).
- looking at Chloe's treatment of Vul rather than Vul's treatment of Chloe the interactions don't really feel W/W? I feel like she would be unlikely to take the 'for God's sake Arete shut up about Vul, you're using talking about obvious-villager-Vulgard as an excuse to avoid actual content' angle as scum both in the sense that I think she would be less likely to take that angle if she had TMI that he was not, in fact, a villager, and in the sense that presumably wolves wouldn't want me to shut up about Vulgard.
- I remember liking Tangy's readlist and thinking it had a lot of depth of thought. this is a relatively weak point because readlists are relatively easy to fake for experienced players.
- Syn's annoyance kind of feels real

points against the slot:

- Vul was pretty insistent on shielding them from pushes. this isn't damning because wolves can and do shield villagers but IMO he didn't shield most of his other village-reads as hard (in terms of actions, rather than expressed read -- like, he stated a stronger townread on some other players, but I feel like every time my read on Tangy came up he was like 'do you still wolfread them aret? how about now? I thought her readlist was towny, what did you think?'
- Tangy's early posts were pretty meh and look kind of fakesolvey. I wrote a big wallpost on it at the time.
- Chloe's vote on Alison is pretty bad -- not in a 'she voted a villager' sense but it felt like she was appealing to things that weren't necessarily alignment related ('Dya is more useful than Alison') rather than actually making a read on Alison/actually calling her a wolf (like she did sort of imply it but that wasn't the justification she used for voting). This is especially bad if Dya is a wolf, which I currently think is very likely.
- If Dya is scum: I don't think Syn's defense of Dya is out of the range of W/W, like, if the team actually is Syn/Dya then Syn deciding to bus Dya today would just make them lose, because it's very unlikely to allow them to escape the PoE given the gamestate, so they don't really have a choice but to try to save them and hope it works.
- some of Syn's posting yesterday felt like they had, in a very literal sense, too much information, e.g. they voted Vul allegedly based on a skim of KZA's Iso but I double-checked KZA's Iso and there isn't really anything overtly partnery there? and they didn't explain it when I asked. it kind of makes me think someone in scumchat was like 'hi Syn, welcome to the team, Vul is outed, go vote him'
- I'm hoping it's just them/Dya or something because that makes the game easy

okay when I actually look at these lists I end up at 'the slot is probably just a wolf, the reasons to scumread it are a lot more compelling than the reasons to townread it, I'm just going to be mildly impressed with Chloe's posting if it is'

Marluxion wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 2:59 am he repeats multiple times in the mason chat that dyachei is a coin flip as well, doesn't really take a stance on either side. he starts the chat with a really bad excuse for voting alison instead of dya though

what was the excuse

I re-read how Vulgard handled the Alison/Dya dichotomy on D2 + EoD and I'm feeling reasonably good about Dya just being a hit

Spoiler: show

Vulgard wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 2:59 am I think Alison's competent enough to do this as a wolf, but I still think she is a villager. @ Chloe

@ visor That part is weird because like. That's not what was happening day 1. Day 1 Amy had a few posts where it looked like she was pocketing dya and dya proceeded to townread her. Come today, Amy is now wolfreading Dya and Dya is townreading Amy. I'm not sure why she'd turn on someone who townreads her if she were a wolf, especially today, when far fewer people townread her. What would be the point of the day 1 thing then? It's possible she's following the thread's concerns about Dya in an effort to stay alive, but it seems counterproductive for wolf!Amy to do.

As for what it means about Dya, I don't know. I feel like townreading Amy in this situation is anti-wincon for their wolfgame, since they could just flip their read on Amy like Amy flipped her read on them. It would be justified. But then again, it literally doesn't matter to dya since dya's been insistent on pushing Alison all game. Besides, I've just checked ISOs and while Amy's shifting her read on Dya, Dya doesn't seem to be paying attention to it at all. I'm not sure if v!Dya ignores that.

There's also the fact you say Amy's wolfreading Dya, but Amy's currently voting on the same wagon as Dya.

Amy's wolfread on Alison is weird. Her only reasoning for putting her toward the bottom of her readlist (apparently) is that she isn't comfortable voting anywhere else. This was earlier during day 2. She also says that Alison is playing an underwhelming game if town. I... don't see many other explanations for why she even wolfreads Alison. She should be townreading Dya based on this mindset as well, since Dya is by far the strongest Alison pusher in this game and Amy calls an Alison vote her most comfortable vote. Her shifting her read on Dya should mean something for her Alison read as well, no? I'd be more okay with it if Amy straight up said the Alison voting was self-pres, but she claims to genuinely believe Alison is a likely wolf - yet I find it hard to find any arguments for it in her ISO. The read just looks fake and birthed from a self-preservation instinct.

Vulgard wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 3:13 am I have the sinking feeling the wagons are v/v. I don't think Alison's a wolf but I also think dyachei's push on her came from a genuine place. I'll probably vote dyachei over Alison when it comes down to it, though, if the wagons don't change. I think my reasons for townreading them are worse than my reasons for townreading Alison.

A part of me wants Amy to get counterclaimed so that at least I wasn't wrong again.

I'm not CCing.

Vulgard wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 3:21 am I think Alison, Arete, c4 (?), Chloe, Dizzy, Marl, Nutella, SPF (?) are villagers.

I am not as sure about dya. Zack/Visor/Sunbae are the remaining three players.

I'll 100% vote dya over Alison or Amy if she doesn't get CCed, mind you.

Vulgard wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 3:30 am Village:

Alison
Amy (IF she doesn't get counterclaimed)
Arete
Chloe
Dizzy
Marl
Nutella

Village with reservations:

c4 (I don't understand his POV sometimes and his progression on Gavial-related reads day 1 doesn't track in a really odd way.)
staypositivefriend (I have no concrete reasons to townread her beyond just liking her posts, vibing, and internally wanting her to be town so we can solve the game together.)

Leaving:

Dya (I'm going to sheep thread consensus on this one, especially if the other alternative is still just Alison)
Sunbae
Visor
Zack

Vulgard wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 5:27 am I'm not going to go Alison because I think she's town. And I'm not confident enough on Sunbae/Zack/Visor to go in any of those directions. Dya it is, and I hope it's a hit.

Vulgard wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 6:35 am - Literally all my townreads are currently suspicious of Dya. Just look at the dya wagon formation.
- I think Alison is town and dya is the only current alternative. This is a less important point, because I could start a new train, but still.
- I don't want to defend a wolf for t0an like an idiot. My reasons to townread Dya are fairly nebulous. While I believe in them, I look at the arguments of several players why dya is a wolf and think they don't quite hold up. On day 1, I insisted on getting my wolfread killed above all else, despite Arete saying Gavial could've been a villager, and it backfired on me hard. It's possible dya is a wolf and I'm just not seeing it. Following the thread consensus at least this one time shouldn't cause major repercussions even if it is wrong.

Vulgard wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 1:46 pm Both Alison and dya have done things I townread them for before, and now they are both top wagons.

People have been giving me arguments why dya is mafia. Okay.

People have been giving me arguments why Alison is mafia. Okay.

I have been wrong on Gavial and on Amy (given the lack of CC). Okay.

But I think these wagons are bad. I don't see why mafia Alison would treat Gavial like this despite knowing he would be likely to flip from how day 1 played out. She should have awareness of her own TMI as a wolf and approach accordingly.

I don't see why mafia Dya would push on Alison in the snappy way that they did. It's possible they were doing w/w theater, but I honestly struggle to see it. If they were w/w, they wouldn't play d2 like they have. They are kinda self-pressing on each other, dya is calling Alison a wolf, Alison isn't... really... calling dya a wolf back? Or maybe I missed it. If they were partners doing theater and becoming the top two wagons on day 2, I think they would continue this theater throughout the day so one would be spewed clear. Or, I don't know, do SOMETHING. It feels like both are ready to get flipped since neither is really fighting the votes on them, and it's puzzling play coming from wolves.

Why is it not puzzling play coming from villagers? ...It is. It still is. That's why I haven't been like "these are V/V wagons guaranteed, let's CFD." But this still feels wrong to me. Marl calling Alison hyperwolfy feels wrong to me. I know he has experience with her, but I do too, and we have an entirely different perspective. That's just one thing that's seemed off to me about these last ~12 hours.

My heart tells me to CFD, but I'm not sure where to go with it, and it could have disastrous results. Like hitting another PR. And after the Gavial read backfired on me for the first time ever (and after I pushed someone who is now almost certainly tracker!Amy - town PR!Amy), I'm not sure I have a great handle on this game.

I've been trying to lay low for the past few hours and read what other people were thinking. I've been trying to discuss with the players pushing for either Alison or Dya, and I feel an overwhelming level of indifference for some reason. This isn't as clear-cut to me as it seems to be to everyone else.

I'm still going to vote for one of them at EoD if I have to, just so that my vote matters, but the reason I'm not voting anyone right now is because I'm still trying to evaluate the gamestate.

Vulgard wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 9:45 am I have to admit I'm whelmed by Alison's recent posting, even while taking into consideration the fact she's (presumably) not caught up.

Vulgard wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 12:31 pm I call Alison a villager, then she re-enters the thread and does this.

Vulgard wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 1:00 pm It genuinely feels like Alison's antispewing.

Reading through his posts on them, he essentially takes the angle that it's likely V/V, but that if there's a wolf in the two it's more likely to be Dya, repeatedly putting Alison as town on readlists and Dya as PoE-ish, and states multiple times that if he has to choose between the two of them, he'll vote Dya (including writing a specific case on why he thinks it's more likely to be Dya than Alison).

However, at the end of the day, he ultimately ended up on Alison:

In general, when wagons are V/V, wolves decide how to vote based on factors like 'what makes them look the least bad' and 'what's most consistent with the reads they've already expressed' and 'what they think they would do as a villager. All of which ... should lead to him voting Dya over Alison, if they are actually V/V. Like, if your choices are "vote the wagon that you've previously said you would vote in this situation, who has less votes and thus is less likely to flip V" or "vote the wagon who's probably flipping today, who you've been calling a villager and saying you won't vote" the first option is obviously going to make you look less bad. He had expressed wavering confidence in his Alison read/said that she might be anti-spewing and her posts weren't inspiring confidence before EoD, but that only started a few hours before EoD and he could have just chosen not to build up progression to switch to Alison there if the wagons were V/V -- he has no reason to build up that reasoning beyond maybe 'thinking he would do it as village.'

I can't actually find his vote in his Iso (I think he might have just voted in the poll?) so I can't count what the vote count was at that point/how likely it was that his vote was cast at a time that would save Dya, but I have a hard time understanding why he wouldn't just stick with every previous statement he had made and vote Dya if Dya isn't a wolf.

dyachei wrote: ↑Wed Jun 02, 2021 7:50 pm
Vulgard wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 4:44 am
Arete wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 4:42 am I'm pretty sure Vul is already out of his wolfrange from his linguistic analysis of SPF but there are a couple points in his posts that are very yikes

right now I would call him like 98 percent town but I should have a more confident read later and this isn't at sheepable territory yet

(for the unfamiliar, Vul and I have highly accurate reads on each other, essentially 100 percent accurate discounting third parties)
Any reads on your end other than the read on Tangrowth?

Currently reading SPF's CoV ISO. If anyone has other wolfgames she played on forum, link them to me, please. I'm trying to verify if I correctly spotted a tell between her village/wolfplay.
a mention of spf finally. nothing really telling here and I wish I remembered arete's read on the syn slot at this time

that was after I initially cased Tangy

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed Jun 02, 2021 6:54 pm syn thinks that dyachei is a villager. they think so because they don't believe that dyachei would give up and lolcat so easily, and that they'd be more likely to put up a fight as a wolf

fwiw I'm confident that this isn't true, in one of the hydra games (I think hydra game 3?) they were a wolf and spent a while lolcatting and then saying it wasn't wolf-AI

which it might not be, I'm willing to listen to the meta that they would do this as villa, but it's definitely not village indicative

c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 02, 2021 6:54 pm Why can't it be Dizzy
Why is Dizzy so universally safe

I thought Dizzy's case on Vul on day 2 (?) where she argued that Vul was potentially W/W with Dya because of the specific diction he used to talk about Dya didn't feel like a case on a partner (particularly a townread partner -- wolves on D2 wouldn't really have had any need to go out of their way to case Vul)

which is especially true if Dya is a wolf

bronana wrote: ↑Wed Jun 02, 2021 6:04 pm

Tangentially, I think I townread arete far too easily yesterday. Arete going completely ham defending Vulgard and accusing Sunbae of carrying the kill and being the real JK target makes me go hmmm. If wolves did try to kill sunbae n2, I think vul/arete went all out hoping I was the real JK who targeted sunbae or something. When sunbae claimed, they realized the house of cards was about to fall and declared code yolo, then cooled the jets once it became clear sunbae was real, vulgard was gonna die, and arete was getting townread. Vulgard basically gave up, Arete backed off and started acting like vul was a wolf after being 99% sure they weren’t. Arete being a wolf doesn’t require an attempted n2 sunbae kill causing wolves to believe I was the real JK, but it makes some sense if that was the case.

also this theory doesn't work because Amy outed that they hadn't been roleblocked before you made the post that kind of looked like a hypoclaim to jail Sunbae, so wolves would know that Vulgard had been blocked assuming that they tried to roleblock Amy in the first place

if anyone wants me to like

answer questions about my read on Vulgard or my thought process there

I can do that

I don't know if having me answer questions in retrospective would actually help anyone read me at all but I figure it can't hurt to offer

[VOTE: Dyachei] aubergine

weh

in hindsight I kind of felt like their perspective on Vul yesterday was consistently 'whatever the thread thinks' (like, when Sunbae first outed the check they basically assumed Vulgard was a wolf, then when people started to bring up alternative mech possibilities they switched back to thinking he was a villager, then they went back to thinking he was a wolf when the thread turned against him)

dyachei wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 3:24 pm Arete, I think it was you that asked

I think vulgard's been mostly v all game. I initially voted vulgard when sunbae outed info because it seemed very damning, then I thought about it more

I don't think it's as clear cut as sunbae is making it because I've seen wolves do stupid things before. they may have targeted vulgard tonight (possibly a PR read)

Marl could have tried to kill vulgard due to the fake claim

or

Vulgard could be a wolf

There are 2 scenarios where vulgard is a villa, so i voted the person I had just read an iso of and had concerns about instead

also I don't really like this post because it's trying to suggest that the fact that there are two possible mechanical worlds where Vulgard is a villager is ... relevant at all, really, when it matters how likely those worlds are

very important legacy post

Spoiler: show

Syn wrote: ↑Tue Jun 01, 2021 5:58 pm i didn't get my role card until just now, is red a good colour guys

yes, it gives you a neighborhood with some confirmed villagers

you should out who else is in the neighborhood to make it easier to PoE

Arete wrote: ↑Tue Jun 01, 2021 5:55 pm another thing I'm Idly Pondering and haven't gotten to an actual conclusion to yet is how wolves would respond to me continuing to harddefend him and build worlds where he's a villager despite Sunbae's claimed check (in worlds where he's a wolf)

e.g. whether they would have continued to stay the course on Vul or whether they would have taken advantage of it to save him

this post is kind of useless because I don't actually know which but I think it's Worth Thinking About

mildly inclined to think this depends on who his teammates are

e.g. if he's the deepest wolf and the rest of the wolves are mid-to-bottom PoE I'd expect them to be more likely to try and take advantage of my read as a Hail Mary play vs. if the other wolves, or one of the other wolves, is widely townread then I'd expect them not to risk it and just be like 'no he's a wolf'

if I close the thread before EoD and don't read the flip it's not real and it can't hurt me

another thing I'm Idly Pondering and haven't gotten to an actual conclusion to yet is how wolves would respond to me continuing to harddefend him and build worlds where he's a villager despite Sunbae's claimed check (in worlds where he's a wolf)

e.g. whether they would have continued to stay the course on Vul or whether they would have taken advantage of it to save him

this post is kind of useless because I don't actually know which but I think it's Worth Thinking About

Spoiler: show

Vul/Tangloeyn is overall a pretty viable world but there are a couple things giving me pause

which are maybe not objectively "major points"

but

idk if Chloe takes the 'omg Arete shut up about Vul, you're using your townread on Vul, who is obvious town, to get out of having to make actual reads' angle if she's scum with Vul, both because I think 'talking about Vul is a waste of time when he's such an obvious villager' is a perspective she'd have mild difficulty faking if she had TMI that Vul was a wolf and because presumably wolves wouldn't want me to shut up about Vul

a thing I'm trying to figure out is why Vulgard gave up when he did

like it makes sense for a wolf to give up when they're redchecked so that they don't spew anything

and it makes sense for a wolf to not give up and try to use the ambiguity to fight their elim

but idk why he would spend most of the day not giving up and then give up at the end anyway

my brain wants me to get to at least 229 posts so that it doesn't feel like I'm wasting my extra 40 posts

does anyone have any questions for me

[VOTE: Vulgard] aubergine

@staypositivefriend @Vulgard

if SPF votes Vul and Vul self-votes we can have 13/13 votes on the same wagon which would be funny

outed wolf wrote: ↑Tue Jun 01, 2021 5:38 pm The lesson is, never defend anyone

:P

see

I tried that with Gavial and Alison

and then they were both actually town

@Vulgard

if you are indeed a wolf I want you to know that even though you are literally posting translations of the word "cat" I am still not confident in you flipping scum

so

good job

just because I've played badly in every game I've played with any of you doesn't mean I'm a bad player I swear

Vulgard being jailkept while carrying the factional kill (2021, colorized)

(this is just an excuse for me to post a picture of my cat)

(she's a very good cat)

sunbae wrote: ↑Tue Jun 01, 2021 5:09 pm I have no new thoughts

Happy pride month

happy pride month

me in an hour when Vulgard flips town and I realize that I betrayed my correct read on him

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