The Syndicate

Was that too snippy? I may be being too snippy. I apologize. We're three days overdue for groceries and I've had no food for about 30 hours and still won't for another hour. You're all wonderful. Please post though.

I mean, obviously I have reasons. But I don't want to tell them to you, specifically, Mist, because you're still a primary suspect and have barely posted despite being asked to. I'm not just going to give you my case on the other top suspect that you can repeat back and agree with. *You* give *me* *your* case on who you think is mafia. Give me your full thoughts and overview of the game so that I can evaluate you, please.

Why not?

[VOTE: MP7] aubergine

[mention]Mistyx[/mention] [mention]sabie12[/mention] [mention]Hally[/mention]

Think this may be the correct vote.

You are "...and sabie" because I concluded that you are likely town and so I am not waiting on more content from you to make a decision on your alignment.

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Bored. Reread Hyena's ISO. Dang. Hyena was a real one. I got thoughts, but not a lot I think would be productive or am comfortable saying until I hear a lot more from Mist, MP7, Hally... and also Sabie.

I guess I can say I'm pretty sure Hyena was the IC and TSP was the vig, not the other way around. Hyena showed no fear at any point whatsoever, and almost no self defense despite taking what I perceive to have been a fair amount of heat. They knew they were unyeetable. (Cayvie agreed.) TSP's night posts are all but yelling outright "I am the vig and I am not going to shoot tonight because if I miss and am killed it's MYLO and scum could win by claiming my shot."

I'm... not sure this changes much for anyone going forward. Maybe lessens Hyena read influence a little, but not much.

I'd hoped to get a lot more done yesterday and today tbh. Spelunky 2 will be out by the time I'm up again and I am absolutely going to disappear into it. (relatively speaking. I'll be around.) No knock on anyone. Just unfortunate.

Why does it keep giving me "the submitted form was invalid, try submitting again" on quick reply. Every single time.

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 29, 2020 12:23 am
Hally is the player most set up to win if they're scum out of any of us, and I think that's by design.

Interesting.
- If we're wrong today, you don't think Hally dies tonight?
- Is a Cayvie/Hally team set up better or worse than if Hally had parked elsewhere? Do you believe Cayvie was saveable at eod?
- Why do you find these issues more mafia indicative than Mist's shading of Sabie and townread of Cayvie?
- What do you make of this post?

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 8:04 pm i don’t feel great about cayvie flipping scum with four votes in an eight player game :/

And other things. Anything. Talk to me, MP7. Talk to me. Words.

Same. I'm trying not to spam too much and say the same things over and over again but uh. People busy today, huh.

MP7, tell me about this Hally stuff. In excruciating detail. Throw it out there.

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Ok, thanks.

So to answer MP7 now: my take on Sabie's defensiveness is that it is a good look. Her statements re: her stance on cayvie are true and consistent with frustration at being lumped in as "defending cayvie," which from her perspective is an inaccurate characterization that she is fighting back at being pinned with. I was aware of this at the time I initially put forth that characterization, as a hypothesis test to see how Sabie would respond to it.

I think she responded in a consistent and towny fashion. Currently I believe Sabie the most out of the three non-cayvie-voters, making her the one that I do NOT wish to yeet. There is some chance that she is playing this off to deflect and hedge, but it is exactly what I would expect from town in her spot.

(Additionally I do not buy the argument brought against Sabie by Mist yesterday, regarding confusion over IC claims being "the most suspicious thing in the thread." I find that also believable for town and not very scummy if at all. That argument being weak is another part of why my current suspicious lie on Mist and MP7.)

So there's a hot take for y'all. Bedtime for me now.

Dear Mist,

I imagine you're feeling a bit down. If you're town, that's okay. Don't give up. Post more. Help me help you. I am listening. Especially interested in your takes on MP7 and Hally.

Dear MP7,

Please post some conclusions for me. Not necessarily final ones. Tell me your thoughts. Right now I'm reading you and seeing a lot of "Why why why?" directed at other people and promises to do more later, and not much in the way of conclusions. Later is now. We need your head. Take some stances. Clear thesis statement in the first paragraph of the paper.

Dear Hally,

I am almost certainly not voting you today but would greatly appreciate your thoughts on... like everything. If we miss today I expect one of us will die, so we at least aren't each other's problem. Also you're fun to bounce at.

<3 <3 <3, Ran

I also feel like I should apologize to all the people trying to read me for "process" as I try to make myself a barely penetrable black box of tricks and traps until coming to a conclusion. I imagine it drives y'all nuts. Sorry. It is what it is.

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 28, 2020 12:42 am Ran, what do you make of sabie getting defensive over that interpretation?

I think I'd prefer Sabie to post about that herself before answering. I'm curious as to what you think of the matter, as someone who did, as far as I know, townread cayvie.

I guess it's gone long enough that I should say something to [mention]sabie12[/mention].

You are not posting into a void, I see your posts and your stances are duly noted. Currently I have characterized you as "townread Cayvie." You are correct in pointing out that you did not strictly speaking do that. You did, however, post:

sabie12 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 7:31 am I am always a low poster in the beginning of games I am slow to start as I get a feel for things sorry that's just me. Also as I've said this week didnt go as planned for me but oh well.

I feel like this game is better for the scum team because they can kill us all easily and we won't even know for sure they're doing it.
Now that I can read ISOs I could maybe vote hally as they seem to have been perpetuating the random pokemon discussion and just seem different than the town game I saw before. Now that I read cayvie I feel her thought about hyena and hally may have been genuine but then she disappeared after Wednesday. I think tony is his usual town self. I could see maybe a vote for mist I don't feel like they're towny though I guess others do. I think MP seems like her town game before. I'm just not sure.

For now I will [VOTE: hally] aubergine I'm sure I'll get grilled about that but that's what I feel right now. In the other town game Hally was so unsure and thought everyone was town and didn't want to vote people and this game seems different to me.

Bolded and underlined the key phrase. This, as I understand it, is the exact reason that MP7 and Mist gave for why they townread Cayvie. So, posting that specific stance + not voting cayvie is why I currently have you lumped in that group. You may not have said "I townread Cayvie" but if you prefer we can adjust the language to "people who believed cayvie's thoughts were genuine and did not vote her." Does that make sense?

I, too, am curious about Hally's take on MP7 specifically.

But also

[VOTE: Mist] aubergine

As expected. Vig should claim now. It's not me.

This is the waiting part of the game where I have hypotheses about how people will act, but saying them will disrupt the observation.

MP7, where's your head at on who the mafia is?

It adds to my accumulation of data points towards what is believable from you and what I can expect from you. Currently you seem to be in a "zomg everyone is town" state where you're townreading everyone and seeming a little lost, looking into reasons why it might be Hally, or me. This is somewhat consistent with what you described as your methodology, but also a very easy position to take as scum, so... hm.

So you admit it!!!

Because the meme is that saying Tim Hortons makes oneself lock scum! Why would town knowingly do a thing that makes themselves look scummy, even as a joke?

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...well I am around for questioning and things. Not a lot I can say in response to "Maybe it's Ran powerwolfing" though!

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Mreh. If I'm squinting at Mist for not taking the "This feels too easy" path should I be townreading Sabie for being the one who did post it first? Mreeh.

Three town genuinely townreading Cayvie. That... no it just doesn't make any sense? If all three of those are town then they have five total votes with Cayvie+partner. Makes no sense Cayvie ghosts the thread and goes over. Plus the improbability of townreading Cayvie's play in the first place.

Mistyx wrote: ↑Wed Sep 23, 2020 10:00 pm anyway i have important mechanical information to share

n0 tim hortons w
n1 smartbomb gay

Tim Hortons. Tim. Hortons.
Tim.
Hortons.

And "smartbomb gay" not "i'm gay." That is exactly the conspicuous failure to post "i'm gay" that I talked about considering a situational scumtell, in spec chat back around champs semifinal 1.

cayvie wrote: ↑Thu Sep 24, 2020 12:41 pm cayvie

tony
misty

sabie
hally
scirry
hyenie

(mp)

Does cayvie really bust out this readlist formatting if her partner is MP7? Hm. Hrm. Hmm. [Slay the Spire shopkeeper hmms 10 hour loop]

Or in other words -

I don't think it's TSP, I don't think it's Hally, both of them were consistently on Cayvie's tail. If the other scum bussed throughout the day and somehow still got THREE townies to townread Cayvie, then GG because I don't know how that happens. I understand I myself would be considered a slightly more likely busser due to subbing in and napping through EOD (looks like I'm getting a sinus infection, bleh), but hope that people can find their way to me, question away and all that.

But from my perspective it's within these three suspects, MP7, Sabie, Mist, the people who townread Cayvie. Numbers, with a clearer head. We get to kill two of them? So if there's one verifiable PR within the three... that seems very good? Or if there's not, people who are good at finding town can approach it by finding one town in there. People who are town and good at finding town and included in the three can find the other town. Hooray. That's good. Words.

For my part I am more inclined towards finding scum and I think the scummiest is Mist. Words. 2 AM. I may be wrong on that. [mention]Mistyx[/mention] if I am wrong on this keep calm and carry on, you believe it's Sabie over MP7?

Three people townread Cayvie.

Of these three...

MP7 is believable to me as having very different perspective. The type chart exercise was useful here. The rest of us were all picking mostly the same things, Poison, Ice, Steel on the chart, typical mafia player traits, and MP7 comes in and self describes as Fire which is *way* different from anyone else. And that appears to be genuine.

Also if I am living in an MP7 town world, she gave me a potentially valuable insight when she pointed out that simply starting the typechart exercise is not heavily alignment indicative. I never did see Mist come back and do anything with that information, so the lease/line of credit townread I'd given Mist for it has to be withdrawn.

Sabie is a head scratcher, but...

sabie12 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:47 pm I mean cayvie has a whole interaction about bussing and being a vengeful mafia and then ended up being the vengeful mafia so I pointed that out. I thought maybe that was something worth discussing if we're analyzing cayvies ISO. If no one thinks looking at other players interactions with a mafia member is worthwhile then fine I give up go ahead and misyeet me. If someone else had come up with that idea it would be awesome smart amazing cool. If I say it, it's heavily questionable and makes no sense and why would I ever even think that was meaningful?

This is believable to me and matches Sabie's place in the game. This also matches a world where Mist, specifically, is looking for somewhere to shade.

Mist... called Cayvie #2 town. Mist is a player I have relatively high experience with, and her thoughts usually are more traceable to me than this. When Mist is heavily wrong it's usually from feeling things are too easy, not overtly townreading scum.

Mistyx wrote: ↑Wed Sep 23, 2020 11:28 pm
cayvie wrote: ↑Wed Sep 23, 2020 11:23 pm oh im deffo steel in that list
spicy take

this is wolfy for not answering the why

...there's nothing behind this take i just want to feel productive

called cayvie's response wolfy, but immediately disclaims it as a nothing take

Mistyx wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 5:26 pm hi, i think

[VOTE: unvote] aubergine

@Alison

naked unvote before the move onto sabie (MP7 also did a naked unvote in fairness, I think d1 unvotes are weakly scum indicative)

A wise mafia player once told me "Lettuce yeet the slot that does not care what's happening at EOD"

That mafia player... was Mist herself

That's basically why. Also I'm somewhat swayed by MP7 and Sabie's appeals, and Mist's Good Reads (TM) haven't really been in evidence. I felt like Cayvie was kind of textbook scummy, at least, and of the three people who disagreed with that and townread her, Mist seems least believable.

Good night MP7, good night Hally if applicable.

##Nightvote: Mist

The problem is if BOTH PRs are down there, there's a chance the vig silently shoots the IC, and I don't particularly trust Hyena's VT claim.
... maybe I'm too pessimistic about this. Ehn.

Here's what I had in voting logs:

D1
Hally votes Hyena
Scirrus votes Hally
Mist votes Scirrus
Hyena votes Hally
Hally votes Cayvie (serious)
Cayvie votes Hyena
Hally votes Hyena
MP7 votes Scirrus
Hally votes Cayvie at some point?
TSP votes MP7 at some point?
Ran votes Cayvie
Ran votes MP7
Sabie votes Hally
TSP votes Cayvie
Ran votes Cayvie
MP7 unvotes

missing some from eod I believe, and from earlier, it's difficult to be sure since some votes happened in poll but not in thread.

If IC is within mp7/sabie/mist they should claim ASAP to avoid the risk of getting vigged.
If vig wants to shoot tonight, I'd prefer they call their shot. But if they do call a shot they have to take it, no fake shots from anyone please.

Unfortunately I think there's a fairly significant chance Hyena was a PR.

if this game turns into misyeeting Mist day 2 I swear to baphomet

Rannya~
TSP (IC, good tone, has matched my view of the game)

Hally (tinfoil, Hally has a good scum game and if there is a busser it's here. I don't currently see getting there though. Doesn't feel like it matches what's happened this game.)

MP7 (exact opposite view of Cayvie's posting, shading Mist, shading Sabie (for hedging on Cayvie, but she's also defending Cayvie?), very different mindset. But also feels genuine? But also... 32000 posts. I haven't seen any MP7 games but I assume she's very much not a potato.)
Sabie (on Hally eod, also shading Mist, defended Cayvie on the basis of "scum wouldn't dip")
Mist (... dipped?)

Well, the one thing I didn't want to happen happened, I took my meds, got groggy, had to lie down for a nap and did not wake up the 1 hour later planned. Massive apologies.

... felt good about my vote though and at a glance it appears to have been a hit? Good times. Reading up now.

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 4:33 pm
Ranmilia wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 4:25 pm Interesting that you should point that out.

Can you talk to me some about how you form reads, and what you believe to be alignment indicative vs unimportant?
Point what out specifically?

Sure. I'm not sure what to say though. I played in Champs Season 5 (qualifier, wildcards, finals, the last of which never happened) and tried to play a bit after that but always ended up slanking (especially by my standards) until post-COVID when I came back, and I'm trying to improve my game. I feel like I generally rely on my gut but I've augmented that with analytical methods plenty off and on, which... will be harder to engage with this game since it's flipless. I guess I just try to understand whether I think someone is genuinely making reads and statements versus fabricating content. A good part of that is why I end up asking questions especially to players whose brains I don't yet know or understand. I feel like I'm good at finding town and not very good at figuring out when someone is scum so that's why I ended up gravitating towards an approach that plays to my strengths, but I don't try to force it either, and I'll be known to really find something I think is worth pursuing aggressively if someone answers a question or says something that really doesn't compute with my understanding of how their brain works in such a way that I think they're making it up. Does this help? I hope so.

That does help, thanks.

Interesting that you should point that out.

Can you talk to me some about how you form reads, and what you believe to be alignment indicative vs unimportant?

MP7, are you town?

So Mist is the bottom of your current reads? Are you comfortable voting her?

What pushes cayvie into top tier for you?

Hi MP7!

Off the top of your head, what are the chances Mist is mafia here?

And what do you make of Hally wanting to talk about Pokemon, but not wanting to respond to the typechart exercise?

Couldn't sleep too well, as you can see from occasional morningposts. I spent a fair bit of thought on that conversation with MP7 overnight. Really not sure. In the moment I didn't feel like I was talking to town, but... mm. it could be.

On the other hand, uhhh we're yeeting in 5 hours, not much morning action, votes are totally split, two players still have stale votes on my predecessor... Cayvie appears to have straight up dipped after being accused, for more than a day and a half, so sure I'll go back there.

[VOTE: Cayvie] aubergine

[mention]Alison[/mention] if that's needed for votes today.

sabie12 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 7:32 am
Hally wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 12:37 am
Mistyx wrote: ↑Wed Sep 23, 2020 10:00 pm anyway i have important mechanical information to share

n0 tim hortons w
n1 smartbomb gay
this?
Are we supposed to understand what this means? I feel like I don't understand half of what is going on in this game. Maybe I'm just an old lady and I don't get what all the kids are talking about these days haha

In game 6 of the Champs tournament on Mafia Universe, earlier this summer, there was a player who wrote in their pregame bio "If I mention Tim Hortons in my first post I am lock scum." Their first post of the game was nothing but the words "Tim Hortons." They were scum. Town voted them out day 1 and swept the game. Thanks to this incident, it has become a bit of a meme that the first person in a game to mention Tim Hortons is scum.

Post contains words "Tim Hortons"!!!

(And then you say: "What? Just for that? Ran, your methods are weird!"
But it was supposed to be MP7 saying that so we would get some opinions expressed on methods)

Aye. That.

Ranmilia wrote: ↑Fri Sep 25, 2020 10:16 pm Mist's typechart exercise was a good discussion starter, she has done only one major "scummy" thing I find potentially worrisome, and other people I've sorted as town so far are also townreading her - not solidified but I'm satisfied to not vote there at the moment.

I considered letting it hang until someone asked, but the moment passed.

The scummy thing is in post #80.

I liked that Mist insisted on answers to "how does this relate to your play in mafia." So far she hasn't done much with that, so it's a bit of a loan read. I look forward to her conclusions.

I... don't like that MP7 is conducting a lot of questioning dialogue, but did NOT ask me "Ran, what was that one thing Mist did that you found scummy?" That's a bit of bait I hung out in a way that I thought was very obvious to start a dialogue on. I'm concerned this questioning is not genuine.

[VOTE: M Plus 7] aubergine

MP7, I'm going to put my vote on you for now. If you are town, please don't freak out, continue on.

Noting a thing. Currently sitting on that thing.

Hally, what are your thoughts on Mist? Did you ever answer the pokemon type chart thing? (if so I missed or failed to note it)

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 25, 2020 10:20 pm I'm sorry everyone, I just feel a bit frustrated.

i like how we’re all so

this game. i want all games to be like this

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 25, 2020 9:44 pm
Ranmilia wrote: ↑Fri Sep 25, 2020 7:28 pm Annnnd I'm caught up, okay!

[VOTE: Cayvie] aubergine

Thinkin my vote goes here right now. By and large I agree with my fellow IC TSP. Cayvie had an awkward entry, awkward interjection in the Hally/Hyena thing, and instant why me fry me when TSP scumreads her, while pointing only to Hyena (looking like LHF town to me) as a suspect. Pretty level 1 stuff but it is what I have right now.

MP7 is definitely an outlier. Hard to say whether that's due to personality (Fire type, wow!) and lack of time or being mafia. I share Hally's suspicion of the pocket attempt but don't think it worked. Also a very weird response, seeming to not understand TSP is calling her + cayvie as vote candidates? Also she called Hyena "self-resolving" which makes me go hmmmmmmmmm.

Sabie doesn't have much down still. Would appreciate some discussion with her. Sabie, who do you think is mafia and why? What do you think about the use of subtitles in the original Star Wars trilogy, and their absence for R2-D2 and Chewbacca?

Minor Mist tinfoil but mostly feeling good there. Think Hally is town, their state of mind is palpable.

Hyena... is hard to follow for me but in a way that makes me think they are town. The thoughts seem genuine, as the kids say, and unagenda'd. "I was worried I would look w/w with Hally because if Evenstar was in this game and we were w/w Evenstar would bus me" is a heck of a take to manufacture.
How does Hyena look like LHF?

What do you mean by me being an outlier? What do you mean by don't think it worked? Where did I not understand TSP saying that? Based on my experience with Hyena, he was pretty obvious town part-way through the game so...?

Why are you mostly feeling good about Mist?

So, MP7

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Thu Sep 24, 2020 8:57 pm thinkin mp and cayvie

This is, at least in my eyes,TSP calling you and cayvie mafia and suggesting that we vote the two of you out.

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 25, 2020 12:06 am
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Thu Sep 24, 2020 8:57 pm thinkin mp and cayvie
That would actually be a lot of fun.

And your response is "sounds like fun!"...?

Not seeing how Hyena might qualify as LHF, when they are/were vote leader, many players have been discussing them, and their own words say they're often put in the proverbial box, is strange to me. These combined strangenesses are examples of why I am viewing you as an outlier with a very different perspective of the game.

If you're unfamiliar with the "box" theory entirely, it's here: https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/th ... Newcomb%29
A lot of people I've seen around the vicinity (of syndicate/MU/champs spec chat) have pointed to this article as a major influence on or description of their playstyle. I'm not so much a fan, personally.

Your pocket attempt on Hally, if it was one, did not work as Hally remained suspicious of you.

Mist's typechart exercise was a good discussion starter, she has done only one major "scummy" thing I find potentially worrisome, and other people I've sorted as town so far are also townreading her - not solidified but I'm satisfied to not vote there at the moment.

Would you say this style of asking many questions is indicative of your own general playstyle?

Also posting Content. Because I want to.

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