The Syndicate

Thanks!

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon May 24, 2021 4:21 pm Assessing the Made wagon requires answering one core question first: what is Made's alignment? At face value I think his nutella vote is bussing-compatible. The only reason to doubt that is that his wagon swelled all the way to 7 votes. That might be the more important factor.

It actually reached 8 votes and a tie for like a millisecond, unless my eyes deceived me or there was a poll glitch. I didn't have the presence of mind to screen cap it before it returned to 8-7. This was within seconds of the poll closing. Someone needs to own up to that.

@JaggedJimmyJay, I still owe you something.

That was me. I had a split-second urge to get rid of made but then decided against it because I felt any chop would help solve there. Coincidentally, all the wagons were mafia lol.

I debated spilling the beans about it and asked the hosts if me getting chopped prevents my heal on d2. It wouldn't prevent it, but I decided against sharing it since I figured it would only do harm.

I'm fine , but I appreciate the support ^-^.

I just like to pretend I'm stupid and responsible sometimes for it so I don't feel so bad the next or fist time I actually screw up bad.

Part of the reason why I write "AKA That One Idiot" in my signature to help me remind myself of that.

If I don't occasionally think that we all make mistakes then I tend to take things hard and am vulnerable to just over-doing it.

also good game everyone and thanks for not mischopping me for my horrendous play

Marmot wrote: ↑Tue Jun 08, 2021 6:47 pm JaggedJimmyJay and MacDougall sat across the table from each other, peering into the others' eyes. The intensity and the energy was unlike anything this cafe had ever seen before.

But this wasn't a romantic affair. No. This was for all the marbles. This was for all the fruits, all the pomegranates and the oranges, all the mandarins. Citrus was a favorite here. Who was going to break the link first?

" " MacDougall pondered.

"Excuse me." a voice in his ear whispered.

MacDougall looked up, startled. He'd thought he'd gotten a table with zero interference. Garden Gnome seemed not to care.

"That's my seat." she went on. "I believe that's my date you're sitting across from."

MacDougall turned back to JJJ, who slowly nodded his head.

The server wandered over with a couple glasses of water. "What do we have going on here?" Alison said. "This table is only for two, one of you will have to leave."

MacDougall jumped to his seat, furious. This wasn't how it was supposed to end, the night was still young and so was he!! He threw JJJ another frustrated look through the low burning candles, "This won't be the last you'll see of me." he stated. This wouldn't. MacDougall slowly turned to walk away. Out of the corner of his eye, he saw Lost Monkey and Allcrab watching from afar, enjoying what looked like a tasty lemony lobster. MacDougall walked towards the exit, past Dr. Martin who was muttering about losing his job to some rogue physician. MacDougall knew what he was talking about, but didn't stop to explain.

MacDougall walked outside, and peered up at the sky. A couple stars winked back through the slighly overcast canopy of clouds.

"Which vehicle's yours?" asked the valet person. "Hi, I'm Esooa, I'm new here, but I hear the food's good."

MacDougall ignored her and walked away. It was a long walk home, but he needed the time to think. His date was cancelled tonight, much to his chagrin, but someday, hopefully not too far off, he'd get another date.


The game is over. MacDougall, the final Mafia, has conceded. Town wins!!!

wth man this aint a win

I demand a refund

Lol, I'm joking. I probably deserve it though with "murdering" Hawk and refusing to believe in 2 healers

I think I can only suspect Allcrab if we already flipped a mafia. In that case then MAYBE they're less towny than LoMo.

If we haven't flipped a mafia, then it isn't him.

IIRC he's confirmed investigative due the casual lovers thing + confirming LoMo on d2 (or at least has an investigative ability). It would be quite unlikely for him to have healed Garden Gnome, presuming Garden didn't protect herself. Also presumes poisoner had no limitations.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Jun 08, 2021 5:23 pm

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 08, 2021 5:20 pm It's litterally [Mac/Gnome, Gnome/Mac, probably LoMo]

Though LoMo is likely spewed town; I just think his case for being spewed town may not be the strongest.

Alison not in your POE?

She's spewed town by Owner.

I think the comments made by owner to her are just categorically awkward and unusual for w/w posting, and often fulfil no purpose if w/w imo.

There can be a argument to that but I think its stretching and is more servant to paranoia rather than to reason.

It's litterally [Mac/Gnome, Gnome/Mac, probably LoMo]

Though LoMo is likely spewed town; I just think his case for being spewed town may not be the strongest.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 08, 2021 5:17 pm But it's sure as hell reasonable

Ebwop.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jun 08, 2021 4:45 pm I cannot imagine everyone has the same POE though

Well I would if it didn't count as playing against any wincon imaginable for any alignment imaginable to POE myself.

So I do-don't. Mostly do but technically don't. I think it's fair.

May not be correct if it suggests flipping me. But it's sure as hell be reasonable.

Does the setup have a good reason to keep descriptions hidden on flip?

Maybe I'm just being entitled but I don't see much reason for it unless there's something about the roles that explain things wrt other roles or events; where knowing it would reduce the power or intended influence.

The only applicable reason I can immediately imagine is the Cupid shot (as that took a cycle at least to take effect) and maybe the mafia factional kill modifier (on the basis no one knows what the hell that was and could've been anything). Other than that though idk and feels like there would be more to it.

My personal bias would like to suggest that the poison mechanics in this setup and whether it affects targets or not is another potential reason.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 7:22 am You can treat as if it didn't have immunity though. It just wouldn't be fact that I'm mafia.

Ebwop.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 7:20 am Quick question:

I really doubt there's two mafia. But let's say Gnome is what she claims to be but has the name Mafia attached to it.

How do you figure it has a mention or capacity of poison immunity in its description/role?

Point being:

In a hypothetical world with 2 mafia and Gnome is once, I'm not outed because there's no guarantee that what's hidden in the description isn't poison immunity.

You can treat as if it didn't though.

Quick question:

I really doubt there's two mafia. But let's say Gnome is what she claims to be but has the name Mafia attached to it.

How do you figure it has a mention or capacity of poison immunity in its description/role?

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 6:44 am

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 6:43 am

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 6:36 amIf you believe there to be two town healers you should be assuming Gnome was healed by mafia ergo is mafia.

There is 0 mechanical basis, incentive, or reason for me to perceive that from my position given what has happened with the game and the notable oddities it has had.

If I were suspecting Gnome, then sure. I could suspect that maybe they were healed by themselves or something. But I don't need to be a town 1-shot healer in order to suspect Gnome. And there is no "should".

You could also presume that there exists a mafia healer. Do you think Mac is that mafia healer?

I don't think there's a mafia healer, and I don't think there's more than one mafia.

I can't self-target to heal, and so Gnome can't be a mafia-healer.

As far as Gnome surviving I don't know anything. There's a potential explanation of some sort of poisoner limitation, or a different explanation where Gnome's role protected her (possibly due to being mafia). Either of which I don't have any more reason to believe than the other right now. The poisoner is 3P and could lie about things for all I know, and my suspicion of Gnome isn't notably greater than my suspicion of Mac.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 6:36 amIf you believe there to be two town healers you should be assuming Gnome was healed by mafia ergo is mafia.

There is 0 mechanical basis, incentive, or reason for me to perceive that from my position given what has happened with the game and the notable oddities it has had.

If I were suspecting Gnome, then sure. I could suspect that maybe they were healed by themselves or something. But I don't need to be a town 1-shot healer in order to suspect Gnome. And there is no "should".

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 6:34 am That's like saying "Oh, you're a doctor. You previously protected Y. Clearly since X survived they must've been protected by a mafia doctor instead of some role-block on the attacker"

There's more than one way to save people.

And considering there was a role-duplicate of me, of which I decried and pushed Hawk for, there is 0 reason to believe that I should know any godamm thing about what happened in order to save Gnome from the posion.

That's like saying "Oh, you're a doctor. You previously protected Y. Clearly since X survived they must've been protected by a mafia doctor instead of some role-block on the attacker"

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 6:32 am

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 6:27 am

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 5:30 am

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 5:00 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 4:26 am All y'all: who would you include in your POE pool of exactly three mafia suspects?

Mac -> Gnome -> LoMo

I haven't really checked on LoMo recently nor compared him to Allcrab yet.

Mac & Gnome could be switched if I'm convinced it's possible and not implausible that there's two town in Mac/Alison. I just feel a bit surprised that both of them are alive up to this point along with JJJ and Sloonei.

its weird that gnome isn't outed from your perspective

It would be more suspicious if there hadn't been a duplicate & in-most-cases redundant same-alignment healer

after that I've basically made fewer mechanical assumptions or certainties

there's also other lesser reasons such as the fact that poisoner is 3P and could have some sort of limit (such as flavor) in exchange for some other benefits; I have 0 prior experience with 3P poisoners

You have to look at it as her being healed by the mafia from your perspective.

Considering I haven't I would guess that I really don't have to.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 5:30 am

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 5:00 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 4:26 am All y'all: who would you include in your POE pool of exactly three mafia suspects?

Mac -> Gnome -> LoMo

I haven't really checked on LoMo recently nor compared him to Allcrab yet.

Mac & Gnome could be switched if I'm convinced it's possible and not implausible that there's two town in Mac/Alison. I just feel a bit surprised that both of them are alive up to this point along with JJJ and Sloonei.

its weird that gnome isn't outed from your perspective

It would be more suspicious if there hadn't been a duplicate & in-most-cases redundant same-alignment healer

after that I've basically made fewer mechanical assumptions or certainties

there's also other lesser reasons such as the fact that poisoner is 3P and could have some sort of limit (such as flavor) in exchange for some other benefits; I have 0 prior experience with 3P poisoners

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 5:08 am tsp was chopped and died from poison is a message i would like to see let me do both pls

If had another heal shot I would've submitted it to Marmot at you as a joke for this.

"TSP didn't get a seventh date!"

"TSP has survived."

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 4:36 am i have a strong opposition to towns doing stupid things

I feel like this is a personal attack

I'm joking. Look at my signature.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 4:26 am All y'all: who would you include in your POE pool of exactly three mafia suspects?

Mac -> Gnome -> LoMo

I haven't really checked on LoMo recently nor compared him to Allcrab yet.

Mac & Gnome could be switched if I'm convinced it's possible and not implausible that there's two town in Mac/Alison. I just feel a bit surprised that both of them are alive up to this point along with JJJ and Sloonei.

don't watch if you like orange juice

wait mountain dew has orange juice in it

basically sentence two players to a date on the next night and then they decide who dies (or both if they don't trust eachother ig)

Mafia:
nutella
Owner
Sonny/OC
Made

GG
or
Mac
(or both)

N1: Tangy or Sloonei
N1*: Gaival or JJJ (Cupid shot result on N2)
N2: Kito
N3: Dana (Bodyguard*)
N4: Seanzie
N5: Nanook

Looking at the night-kills for a few minutes I can't really see any particular reason to show it would be more likely to be GG or Mac or both. Most of the kills had good reason to be done from most perspectives. Only kills that stand-out to me are Kito and maaaybeee Seanzie.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 12:41 am I actually think Tony is the poisoner and does have evidence against Gnome (that is, why the hell did my poison fail?).

I don't mind this.

[VOTE: Tony] aubergine

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 12:37 am I would appreciate if folks could please provide their reactions to Tony's role claim.

There isn't a reaction from me

Besides, that was more of an ability claim than any specific role claim.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 12:26 amflipped town

ebwop

[VOTE: Mac] aubergine

I trust the Owner/Alison interaction as slipping Alison as town. I think its even more so when Owner seems to "agree" with a post that considers Alison that distinctly considers her town...on the day Alison was poisoned. My own attempts at looking at Mac/Alison handlings in order to decide which didn't really yield me any comfortable results or thoughts.

I probably would still consider it to be the same if Mac flipped somehow.

Also side-note Owner did a meme/image response to nutella in her ISO and like only other person she ever did that to was Mac but I don't think its super AI but it did catch my eye

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Jun 06, 2021 11:35 pm [VOTE: TonyStarkPrime] aubergine

Presuming there's 1 mafia left, as there should be, it's probably better to get the mafia and not the poisoner unless you got less of a clue as to who's mafia.

Poison takes time to kill.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Jun 06, 2021 11:40 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun May 23, 2021 2:02 am

Owner of a Lonely Heart wrote: ↑Sun May 23, 2021 2:01 am

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun May 23, 2021 1:56 am

Owner of a Lonely Heart wrote: ↑Sun May 23, 2021 1:54 am

Sonny wrote: ↑Sun May 23, 2021 1:41 am Oooh, Nook isn't self voting anymore.

Owner, please just catch up. All this talk about not being caught up is shady.

I'm like not caught up most games. I don't get why people keep calling it that way when it happens like every game. It's like no one remembers this...though we haven't really played together lately so I guess that's it.

smh

got anything to say about nutellagate?

What's a nutellagate? Is is a gate made of nutella? I feel that's too on the nose to be it. They are there. I don't recall their playstyle. I feel like I should know more about their music tastes from all the walrus' we've been in together.

They are an elephant in this room, but I don't feel like they are the loudest or most memorable one here.

This is the interaction I said I'd discuss separately.

There was a brief exchange between mafia Sonny and mafia Owner in which neither of them said anything of note. Mac butted in to poke Owner about mafia nutella"gate". Owner's response is both a joke and a non-answer. This was during Day 1, so nutella was still alive.

nutella didn't give a single crap about Mac's accusations. This suggests Owner didn't either. Why do they gotta be so bizarre and confuse JJJ 5 cycles later? Someone please interpret.

Well if I assume Mac is a wolf....

I think this in the time's context might help explain it a bit. It just happened.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun May 23, 2021 1:51 am okay

[VOTE: nutella] aubergine

If I searched correctly, and no secret votes, this was the 4th vote. Mac may have been egging Owner on to try and get a good look on the situation.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Jun 06, 2021 4:04 pm This is the kind of content I had in mind when I decided to investigate Alison by way of mafia's treatment of her exclusively. The town player archetypes I would associate Alison with (e.g. aggressive hunters, logicians, one-way conversationalists) tend to invoke charged responses from the people they accuse, particularly when the accusations are correct. I highlighted some things from Owner that I think reflect that spirit. Alison's aggression knocked Owner off-balance in a manner that is visible, and Owner's efforts to bring the dialogue back into a place she felt she could control can be seen in her assuaging language. "Hate is a strong word" / "You seem strong-willed" / "Alison's personality is strong, but I don't think that makes her mafia" -- this kind of stuff all reflects well on Alison. I welcome arguments from anyone that disagrees.

I think the quotes you point out speak for themselves tbh; even without considering what you propose are typical responses to !town Alison's playstyle, I think a lot of these highlighted comments are just hard to come by in usual wolf-to-wolf posting. The only reasonable complaints I can think of here are that some of them feel like they could be intentional softballs but other comments just feel too awkward to be a softball or anything really. Don't think it could be targeted distancing either; I think for some amount of time Alison was well-established in thread so if any distancing were to be done it should be with other, less-secure, mafia.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Jun 06, 2021 2:40 am Martin do you think GG is likely a wolf

GTH no, both gut-wise and brain-wise.

I haven't done a lengthy investigation of it though.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Sun Jun 06, 2021 2:32 am

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Jun 06, 2021 2:05 am

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Jun 06, 2021 2:04 am And not claiming is anti town right now so the real question is why aren't you claiming.

I disagree

You say that while a certain recent fallout game had the last wolf coincidentally not claim until essentially, like, day 7 or something very late.

And won said game.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Jun 06, 2021 2:05 am

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Jun 06, 2021 2:04 am And not claiming is anti town right now so the real question is why aren't you claiming.

I disagree

You say that while a certain recent fallout game had the last wolf coincidentally not claim until essentially, like, day 7 or something very late.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Jun 06, 2021 2:04 am The holistic production of this review is pretty much a non-decision for Allcrab. My view doesn't change much. However I did highlight the one Made post that speaks to me a good amount, and in Allcrab's favor. I invite perspectives on that one especially.

It favors allcrab fairly (but far from completely).

I think its important to note that Made didn't have a lot of posts (when he has been capable of low and high posting as both alignments) so it may inherently be trying to not show much.

Though it feels like Allcrab did a bit of (metaphorical) dancing on that Made read and not picking a side. If my word is worth anything though, for a long time I only ever slightly town-read Made and wasn't sure of him either though.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Jun 06, 2021 1:17 am

Allcrab wrote: ↑Sun Jun 06, 2021 1:13 am 1. TSP implies I have TMI on who was poisoned
2. TSP later implies Nanook was the likely poison

Someone explain to me how TSP as a villager is able to figure out Nanook was the likely poison independently but when I imply it in my post it's TMI. Ftr I don't think it's a hard thing to figure out that Nanook was the likely poison and I think TSP knows this which means TSP was purposefully shading on grounds he should know don't make sense.

Am I wrong here?

I agree that it's a reach to call it TMI and for Mac to call it a good point.

I was the first person to post when day broke and I literally said the poisoner and mafia might have targeted the same person. So at the very least, even if someone doesn't think of that they are going to see it in my post. I don't think anyone's going to struggle to come to that conclusion.

Mac called what a good point?

The thing TSP said or something that you said? Because I can't find what's being referred to easily.

Sorry. That's a whole bunch of stream of mumbo jumbo.

I was looking at multiple things so it may be a bit difficult to follow.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 7:35 am

Alison wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 7:34 am

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 7:33 am Hypothetically speaking...

Poisoner is 3p (or town I guess). They poison scum Alison. Martin the Mafia poisoner heals scum teammate.

That's the only world in which Martin is mafia I think? I don't think he fake claimed the heal.

the problem with that theory is that it involves scum alison razing her own team to the ground to go deep, then chaining herself to her mech outed scum buddy, and then committing to an incredibly tight POE that will be obviously refuted if it is full of shit thus making her no longer deep and leaving her in a position of having killed 2 teammates for nothing.

How would you have played getting poisoned n1 as scum with a healer teammate after bussing?

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 7:52 am

Alison wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 7:50 am

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 7:48 am

Alison wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 7:40 am

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 7:40 am

Alison wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 7:40 am

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 7:35 am

How would you have played getting poisoned n1 as scum with a healer teammate after bussing?

probably similar to modern family, bus d1 and then float through the rest of the game on the cred from that largely pushing town.

the bus everyone and go super deep strat is worse in closed role madness because you can easily get screwed by mech, and it is also worse when there is a 3P poisoner who could be lobbing shots at the most trusted townies. plus because my mafia teammates can now die in the night, if I bus too hard it risks getting my whole team decimated.

I think you missed the key part of the question?

Which part

You get poisoned n1. You have a poisoner teammate. What do you do?

My point is that I am not entirely sure your objection isn't just a description of what you'd do after you bus.

i just said. I'd try to push townies and float through the game.

with a rogue killer in the game I can't afford to bus.

So you are saying you wouldn't have played day 2 the way you did?

Thats reasonable tbh.

I don't think !Wolf Mac here needs to do this world-building + interaction on D4, though I haven't taken a holistic picture of his D4 activities. I think it looks good if this isn't the only thing he was doing on D4, which I suspect he was doing other things given post-count.

Apparently if you try to do a quote chain (i.e. a quote of a post with a quote that also has a quote...and so on) beyond 7 posts the website auto-cuts it down. Hence the two blocks of quote above. I thought I had ran into a bug for like the past half-hour when it seemed like my quote was getting messed up lol.

I didn't find anything else noteworthy to me that mentioned Alison + Me in the same post.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 7:51 am Tbh it makes sense to heal Alison. I have no issue with it.

I am curious if the person who chose the n1 poison did so anticipating the heal tho. I think they chose a target that was always drawing a heal and subsequent targets are players who are not likely to. So there is a chance the n1 poison was made knowing it wouldn't work. Then one asks why?

If the poisoner wanted to kill why target someone who draws heals and looks super townie off day 1 play? Either they had no idea they'd be prevented, or they did so to bait as many heals as they could, or they did so specifically to make Alison look good.

Could be potential 3P hinting if we think both 3P and Mafia are in Mac/Alison. I'm far from sold though as I expect this to be part of natural conversation at some point.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat May 22, 2021 3:07 am

Alison wrote: ↑Sat May 22, 2021 3:06 am

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat May 22, 2021 3:05 am

Alison wrote: ↑Sat May 22, 2021 3:01 am Mac you should answer Sloonei's question about my alignment.

I missed that one where is it what is it etc.

His question is "what is Alison's alignment?"

I think ur town. I've got no spooky feelings toward u yet. You give me the positive juju.

Seems like a "good enough" D1 town read. I don't expect much different from my FM experience.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon May 24, 2021 5:18 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Mon May 24, 2021 5:15 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon May 24, 2021 5:13 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Mon May 24, 2021 5:12 pm I think assuming Made is town is fine. I assume that too. No voting between a very close V/W wagon is honestly scum indivative.

if I was a vigilante I would have shot Made last night

For what? nutella was in danger and he got flash wagoned.

I have a kill counterwagons policy as a vigi since I saw Rich lay waste to an entire wolf team doing it. Solving every wagon is apex level vig play because it gives town immense information.

Interesting D2 quote. Despite the differences on what-to-do-with-made, I feel like this is in-line with the D1 read of Alison. Doesn't feel shady and rather more commentary/coversational with a town-read. Also I think its a bit of a good look wrt to Mac/Made stuff. Referring to policy rather than any individual suspicion of Made doesn't do much for town-credit off of bussing I would think.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon May 24, 2021 10:28 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Mon May 24, 2021 10:20 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon May 24, 2021 8:43 pm I am mindful of the fact that if there is even 1 mafia between Jay, Sloonei and Alison that once the two of the three that aren't that mafia and I die that person is probably just going to win, and I am very conflicted as to why the three of them are choosing to walk that path, particularly Alison, given Jay and Sloonei both acted in defense of Nutella in the most literal way and Jay in particular was present during Nutella wifom hours mopping up anti spew cred.

I think there's a good chance both of them are town and I don't believe in D2 tinfoil.

The problem is that with Jay it's not fucking tinfoil he has bad interactives with Nutella and ended up off wagon. People like you saying that it is tinfoil makes me want to tinfoil YOU.

I am not sure why this is so hard for people to grasp. Jay has not cleared himself by his own metrics and admission so the fact that he of all people is catching easy "jay is town lol" from good analytics players is insanely weird.

Early cautionary tinfoil. I probably wouldn't town-read at the time for potential discrediting concerns, but I believe in hindsight the mention of this being "weird" looks slightly good. Mac, as I've heard, is a capable player and if he wants to discredit here I feel that he is capable of more than just calling it weird; much less than just saying "he's not cleared" rather than putting active scum-reads/suspicion.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 4:50 am Owner is not playing like someone without active teammates operating in a POE clamped state is what I am trying to articulate. They are playing like a detached town that has found themselves friendless. And I intend to be that friend.

~~~Soon Later~~~

MacDougall wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 5:17 am alright fine if Alison and Nanook agree then i guess the correct thing to do is just shut the fuck up and let this day gently roll downhill to it's natural outcome

Not sold if this a good response to the Owner wagon though. Seems preety blatant though.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 2:26 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 1:24 am I suspected Alison Day 1 and then she was poisoned and I tossed my suspicion out the window, but now I am beginning to feel like the poisoner is a third party role.

Alison is townier than you, Guillo, Jay and Nanook.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 2:30 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 1:54 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 1:48 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 12:58 am Act, Gnome, Made, and OC seem to form my premier suspect tier. Allcrab, bad bunny, lost monkey, and MartinGG99 would have to round out whoever's missing. This doesn't take any third party into consideration.

Are at least three mafia not contained above? I ask whoever cares to ponder.

The reason I ask this question is this:

Allcrab, lost monkey, and Martin all look town to me at face value. If I give Allcrab the nod, then I am generally inclined to do the same bad bunny given Allcrab's view.

If all of the above is correct, I need three mafia within [Act, Gnome, Made, and OC] or something has to be incorrect. It could be that three mafia are in that set if we're very fortuitous. These reads aren't without controversy though, especially if your name is Nanook.

What's the best reason to town read Alison?

She has good reads that make sense. She's promoting a healthy thread state.

Interesting. Nothing really happens D2-early D4 with handling of Alison. Can't say I would complain though; I think many people tuned out a bit on D3 when we set out positions on who was mafia in the healer vs. healer conflict. He also had Hawk as scummy on D2, so that makes a bit more sense to me. But I may be biased in applying myself & what I would probably do here.

So, in sum, as I see it: Mac was mostly town-reading Alison except for possibly early D2 until D4 where Hawk flipped town and I could've been mafia healer.

I don't see a whole lot of difference compared to Alison's view/handling of Mac except I think Alison held out on Mac being very town longer than Mac did on Alison being very town.

It feels as though I am often inherently tied to his view of Alison at times though:

MacDougall wrote: ↑Wed Jun 02, 2021 6:02 pm Come to think of the poisoner is Martin.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Wed Jun 02, 2021 6:04 pm claim weird... healer bait.... kinda weird posts but scum solving so getting Alison meta solve.

Yeah its just him.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:41 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:39 pm I don’t think duplicate claims are a great reason for a chop. That’s casing the hosts.

I think it's pretty obvious Martin isn't a healer lol.

I hardly see any interest in my slot before D4.

I feel like I have a clearer picture of things. Mac does feel more natural but I think it would be disingenuous of me to suggest that without realizing potential bias and that Alison/Mac are two different people with two different posting styles as well as manners of hunting.

I also feel like demilitarized zone for lack of reading conflict between the two up until D4/D5.

The defining point I get from this though is that while I can understand a decent explanation of "Oh Martin can be used to meta-read Alison", there isn't necessarily the same excuse (fmpov) for Alison to not check on that Mac read occasionally. Like Mac did once at early D2-ish based on JJJ clearance. The best thing I can imagine for Alison though is what I had learned about Alison from that Beesparado game; she doesn't really check for bussers until the options for non-bussing scum are very low probability or just simply gone.

I think I'm sorta stuck on this though. I don't know how confident Alison always town-reads me. I never really effectively "bussed" a wolf if I'm mafia here. I could've been entertained as mafia on or after D3. But I wasn't really.

~~~~~~

Yeah after reviewing both Mac/Alison ISO's and pointlessly staring for awhile I can't really say for certain who's the scum. I'm leaning Alison a bit. Though I need to look at other factors that I can trust instead of just Martin/other player handling.

Interesting side-note though, apparently Alison thought both I and Mac were spewed Town by OC/Sonny on D4.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Jun 05, 2021 11:50 pm @MartinGG99 where do you go next when I flip town?

I'm not entirely sure if I want you flipping today.

I do feel like something's off about both you and Alison being alive right now. There's likely one scum in there, and I want to find out.

With the very limited mischops we have, even after getting a large advantage over the mafia, I want to take time and consideration in this. I don't want town to lose just because of me deciding to not effort much.

I have a feeling that Alison's handling of Me and Alison's handling of Mac just simply conflict. I've read through the ISO.

I also have an inkling they've been trying to be pockety. Just practically straight town-reading Mac and I on relatively equal levels for large lengths of the game (practically up until SoD5) without any pause or entertainment otherwise irks me. Yet the reasons for those town-reads are arguably quite different, from what I understand.

She town-read mac for, among other things, getting rid of scum.

Alison wrote: ↑Sat May 22, 2021 3:34 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat May 22, 2021 3:11 am @Alison what is mac’s alignment?

I think he's town. Not lock levels, but I'm pretty comfortable with slapping him into my town pile and moving on. He hasn't tried to wow us with an over-the-top Maccy display, he hasn't tried to pocket or bury me, and his pushes make sense from a town Mac perspective. (I had the same reaction as him to the Owner first post, and pushing JJJ his rival and Made the person he always suspects is in-character for Mac.) I don't get the feeling that he's fishing for an easy misexe with his Owner/Made pushes either. His posts theorizing that JJJ is using WIFOM and a shared history against him show enough depth of thought to satisfy me.

I got town-read for being Martin. But I have not really gotten rid of scum at all in this game. There's arguments to be made I've only helped scum/mafia. She also posited that I was TMI'ed as town, but I think we all know that doesn't remove Poisoner from the picture.

Alison wrote: ↑Wed Jun 02, 2021 5:04 pm I am of two minds regarding Martin.

I strongly townread his play and the way he handled his claim was extremely townie. He claimed first without any pressure to do so, and if he is the mafia poison healer he would know that the town poison healer would CC him and make him look bad.

On the other hand it seems silly to have two poison healers since they'd both just heal the D2 poisoned person.

On the third hand there is something very strange going on with the poison this game because it has weird targeting this game and I don't know what to make of that. Which increases the chances that two poison healer makes sense somehow.

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jun 01, 2021 1:02 am

Sonny wrote: ↑Sat May 22, 2021 12:55 am

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat May 22, 2021 12:48 am

Sonny wrote: ↑Sat May 22, 2021 12:46 am

Alison wrote: ↑Fri May 21, 2021 10:20 pm Martin is lock town never rescind.

Why?

Alison reps a godread on Martin so just sheep it.

Err, I mean good to know, would still like to see if for myself if it's something she can articulate.

I think this also TMIs Martin town. In fact I think if Martin was scum and a townie had claimed a bad godread on him Sonny would just be like "oh okay cool, I'll sheep it". Questioning the read and trying to force me to articulate specific reasoning suggests that Sonny was upset about the clear and wanted to try to convince me it wasn't as strong as I thought, or otherwise discredit my read on Martin.

My confidence that Martin is town is renewed.

Alison wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:10 pm Martin is obvious town.

Yet at some points of the ISO (or in the game in general) it feels as though she town-read both of us almost equally to some degree.

(Big quote)
I don't feel great about this. I'm going to see how Mac has been handling Alison and I to see if I feel any better.

I even joked about how I couldn't really fake-claim as mafia in my last game as mafia:

https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/th ... ost4533074

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Jun 05, 2021 10:13 pm Martin not claiming the heal is not what I anticipated.

I’m at a friends house and will just roast on the game.

dude the day I lie about my claim is the day I should be auto-executed

I don't think I've ever faked a claim as town in the (close to) 20-25 games of town I've been. It's just inconsistent with my persona.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 12:17 am [snip]

The point of this was to see what Allcrab was thinking. Gave some time but they didn't choose to answer.

I was curious as to why they seem to be choosing who to watch based on poisoner rather than anything else, and felt that asking if they were considering mafia night-kills at all as a better question.

Allcrab wrote: ↑Wed Jun 02, 2021 4:14 pm Nobody targeted mac last night.

Figured poisoner MO was to go after people on the fringe of the PoE which was kinda right they were a bit more direct than I expected and I guessed wrong, sorry.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 12:17 am

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:51 pm I did have a mild look-through of those interactions earlier with regards to Mac. My current stance is that one of Made/Mac is mafia. GTH, as said before, it would be both of them.

It would surprise me if both were green. If Made somehow flips green though I will be putting more consideration into my mafia-hunting thoughts than I would if he flips red.

Regardless, I will look at Mac more in the future. Just more-so on Mac and others if Made flips green because atp town's in a problematic situation most likely.

I really struggle to understand how suddenly after going to sleep yesterday feeling sleepwalking as a member of the towncore suddenly almost everyone in the game has me in the POE with the exception of Made (which I find very strange for him in particular) and Esooa and TSP who both just subbed into the game and neither of whom can actually be mafia outside of crazy worlds (in Esooa's case). It 100% feels to me like opportunism based on the fact that Papa Jay decided Mac was a suspect. ​I must ask myself the question that if he did not do that, would you actually be pushing me as your primary POE suspect and the answer is exceedingly obviously no you would not be, because you had not been. I feel the exact same way about Alison. So I actually probably have my answer about who the mafia are.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 12:19 am

Allcrab wrote: ↑Wed Jun 02, 2021 4:14 pm Nobody targeted mac last night.

Figured poisoner MO was to go after people on the fringe of the PoE which was kinda right they were a bit more direct than I expected and I guessed wrong, sorry.

And yeah I am trying to get poisoner identity over wolves cuz that's gonna be WAAAAAAAYYYYYYYY harder to get if we gotta do it the old fashioned way.

I wanna vote martin today but out of respect for Alison's read I'll try made first.

This actually reads like a poisoner claim tbh.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 12:20 am [VOTE: Martin] aubergine

I don't get it. In the context of the above quotes Mac just says this and it has been stuck in my head ever since.

Its like the fact a few times on Day 5 I was suspecting Allcrab and explicitly said it doesn't mean anything to him and he just doesn't suggest any sort of world-building with it (such as arguing maybe I'm mafia and I know who poisoner is).

Ultimately as much as I can think about it I have no answers or possible suggestions. To me, these hosts have put two 1-shot healers in the game as well as fancy mechanics such as the Cupid with JJJ + Gaival choosing one to die. They could have put anything.

Unless I have any clear idea of what happened in order to save gnome, and whether that was dependent on Gnome's role, I have no clue. Feels like an opportunity to bounce some crazed ideas off of.

Thinking about it more, if I try to force any meaning to it, I wonder if it was meant to tip Seanzie off. To me Seanzie may be the kind of player most likely to try and interpret it in some direction. He did get night-killed without the Poisoner knowing in the same night that Gnome got poisoned. But after a quick search there's basically nothing about Gnome from Seanzie's ISO of recent posts.

Anyways, I don't believe its a good idea to dwell on it anymore.

Garden Gnome wrote: ↑Sat Jun 05, 2021 9:53 pm

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 05, 2021 9:50 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jun 05, 2021 9:44 pm

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 05, 2021 9:39 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Jun 05, 2021 4:42 pm I doubt Martin is the poisoner a lot more than I doubted it on Day 5. I don't have a mechanical reason to say he isn't mafia.

That's how it should be. I mean, not considering other slots/factors, I am more likely to be mafia for what I've done than I am poisoner. Two day phases ago I think the running theory was that I could be mafia healer. As much as they were wrong, I didn't find issues with those arguing that. It was fairly conceivable.

But lately more and more people with more frequent suggestions of who I am have been pointing at poisoner. Which sounds not really plausible to me given the substantial risks I took (from a hypothetical 3P poisoner perspective). It also feeks a bit like "oh, well if he's unlikely to be mafia, then he HAS to be poisoner, right?". Which leads me to the conclusion that people are just finding me scummy in general (and not with much consideration for D3 overall) and maybe or maybe not want me to be a wolf of some sort simply for their solving's sake.

Did you claim the heal on GG and I missed it or no

Nope.

I've been a 1-shot healer since claiming it SoD3. I have no clue as to what mechanic saved Gnome.

I'm rather doubtful that it's another healer. That would make 3 healers in the game (2 town, 1 mafia) which sounds odd and the hypothetical mafia-healer could've just joined in with the claims at some point.

could it have been fake poison? Weird but definitely possible.

It can be possible, like many things can be possible. But I don't think its plausible.

It's like entertaining if I am poisoner. "Weird, but possible". But not really plausible.

It would suggest that poisoner intentionally gave up effectively a night-kill at a time where they may very much need it with the PoE getting smaller and smaller with each day. It also in general feels weird to fake-poison anyone here.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jun 05, 2021 9:44 pm

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 05, 2021 9:39 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Jun 05, 2021 4:42 pm I doubt Martin is the poisoner a lot more than I doubted it on Day 5. I don't have a mechanical reason to say he isn't mafia.

That's how it should be. I mean, not considering other slots/factors, I am more likely to be mafia for what I've done than I am poisoner. Two day phases ago I think the running theory was that I could be mafia healer. As much as they were wrong, I didn't find issues with those arguing that. It was fairly conceivable.

But lately more and more people with more frequent suggestions of who I am have been pointing at poisoner. Which sounds not really plausible to me given the substantial risks I took (from a hypothetical 3P poisoner perspective). It also feeks a bit like "oh, well if he's unlikely to be mafia, then he HAS to be poisoner, right?". Which leads me to the conclusion that people are just finding me scummy in general (and not with much consideration for D3 overall) and maybe or maybe not want me to be a wolf of some sort simply for their solving's sake.

Did you claim the heal on GG and I missed it or no

Nope.

I've been a 1-shot healer since claiming it SoD3. I have no clue as to what mechanic saved Gnome.

I'm rather doubtful that it's another healer. That would make 3 healers in the game (2 town, 1 mafia) which sounds odd and the hypothetical mafia-healer could've just joined in with the claims at some point.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Jun 05, 2021 4:42 pm I doubt Martin is the poisoner a lot more than I doubted it on Day 5. I don't have a mechanical reason to say he isn't mafia.

That's how it should be. I mean, not considering other slots/factors, I am more likely to be mafia for what I've done than I am poisoner. Two day phases ago I think the running theory was that I could be mafia healer. As much as they were wrong, I didn't find issues with those arguing that. It was fairly conceivable.

But lately more and more people with more frequent suggestions of who I am have been pointing at poisoner. Which sounds not really plausible to me given the substantial risks I took (from a hypothetical 3P poisoner perspective). It also feeks a bit like "oh, well if he's unlikely to be mafia, then he HAS to be poisoner, right?". Which leads me to the conclusion that people are just finding me scummy in general (and not with much consideration for D3 overall) and maybe or maybe not want me to be a wolf of some sort simply for their solving's sake.