The Syndicate

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Thu Jan 04, 2024 1:17 pm
MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 04, 2024 12:53 pm Actually reflecting upon it now, game can swing quite a fair bit more than most games (namely the Lord Protector's fate and abilities all-around), but otherwise I think the balance is okay-ish. At least, not too imbalanced to be anti-fun for my tastes I think.

Also, having watched the movie now, I really should've watched the movie earlier in the game. Very few possible characters that would fit 3P well, nor many distinct characters to speak of in the movie, and in hindsight I would've stayed on stick at the time of the 3p claim. I kinda just assumed watching the movie was optional (i.e. not very helpful) since claiming wasn't completely banned.
Kinda the same conclusion I've come to. High variance but a fun game. I'm very appreciative of the host, mods, subs, and glad I got to play with y'all (my sense of competition and salt I think was coming out too much yesterday and I don't want people to think differently! Y'all are awesome).

Any way to watch it outside of Apple TV?

Not really, since its an Apple TV exclusive thingy most likely. Or at least I would expect Apple to try to keep things in their own ecosystem of sorts and not share anywhere else if they can help it.

Unless there's some dubious sites that have it as a file or something. There's often a site for that sort of thing, but I wouldn't recommend for various reasons.

If there was a simple and easy way to gift a month's subscription I would just for the random act of heck.

Counterpoint though I guess I was following flavoring/theme by not really being knowing of the wolfwalker characters as a random character-less puritan LOL

Actually reflecting upon it now, game can swing quite a fair bit more than most games (namely the Lord Protector's fate and abilities all-around), but otherwise I think the balance is okay-ish. At least, not too imbalanced to be anti-fun for my tastes I think.

Also, having watched the movie now, I really should've watched the movie earlier in the game. Very few possible characters that would fit 3P well, nor many distinct characters to speak of in the movie, and in hindsight I would've stayed on stick at the time of the 3p claim. I kinda just assumed watching the movie was optional (i.e. not very helpful) since claiming wasn't completely banned.

subs should be thanked/appreciated alongside host for the important deed they do

as well as @Porscha too

oh and ty @Delta for the sub-in

I know I didn't get around to interacting with your slot much or reading it independently but you seem like a fun player to have around and I appreciate the effort you put into the game despite it being rather late

yea thanks for the host/game

was interesting/fun experience despite the bumps in the road with stuff like activity

The trick with softs is that they're meant to not be plainly obvious unless you're thinking about a scenario and/or have a similar mindset

But even so they're kinda just fun to make

The best I ever did was mech-speculate in such a way that the only reasonable conclusion I could be was a certain role (but seemingly so natural that the wolves wouldn't see it)

Stick wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 7:22 pm Baker was right to sus me for watching the movie after rand lol

I thought you were joking about seeing it after or just doing it to create content with baker, cuz idk why you would be honest about it

as I thought it was wolfy too a bit lol

I guess next time I'll have to see the movie or show or whatever it is.

Probably would've gotten me around to considering conversion mechanics more strongly, but there would've been a decent chance of me doubling-down on Stick in thinking they were former lost wolf or something like that.

leetic wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 7:18 pm
MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 7:14 pm Well, we would've lost to scotty anyways.
Town didn't need to kill Scotty to win. That made the last phase intense because town was so close to finding the two wolves they needed to win, but so far in the end.

Oh, huh.

That certainly would've been interesting.

Delta was trending up a bit for me at the end there. Curious to see if it would've continued like that and I would've chopped Porscha/Robyn

Well, we would've lost to scotty anyways.

Preety good game he plays, but the game just wasn't suitable for the paranoid tinfoil of him. I figured he was very likely this capable, but in the face of activity issues I don't want to turn around and chop one of the most active players, especially if doing so while they're town makes for a bad game experience and that their fake-towning is preety decent at minimum.

GGs

baker wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 6:48 pm ah well this is sad

[VOTE: martingg99] aubergine

I don't have much to say, other than hoping you fare better next game. Because I know you can do that.

You're better than this game. What I've seen as of late is a flailing noodle that believes in certain things for completely arbitrary reasons. I mean, they may be valid reasons, but I don't see why you're valuing them over everything else (or have focused on those elements of the game over everything else) and have almost completely ignored my presence in the game. I had some hope you were town (my instincts were telling me this for a fair bit for the first half of the game) and things were iffy for you this game early on, especially when you said you would be more active later-game (look how that turned out). But with you straight-up advocating for what I think is part of the wolves' gameplan (as well as never seriously interacting with me about the Wilgy/Scotty reads) there is no way I could see you as town unless you were significantly underperforming this game and not caring as much as you usually do. Honestly, some of the points you made seemed almost exclusively made for your own gosh darn ego (see the self-contradiction I mention earlier) rather than actual solving.

You say this is sad, and perhaps in some lights that is correct, but none of those reasons are on my shoulders alone. I gave you every favorable light I could per my instincts, and you still ended up acting like a wolf (or non-town) in the end. There's nothing I can do about that, and if I see this again I will be less inclined to try and protect you from someone like Scotty and let you get yeeted out of a 5-story window.

it isn't resistance if someone's being wolfier

just saying

baker wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 6:04 pm
MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 5:42 pm Looks like town is gonna crash and burn. A whole bunch of independent wagons.

[VOTE: Porscha] aubergine

Also if baker's town I think we just lose because he seems to be perfectly opposite of me

baker wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 11:55 am I was paranoid of robyn for a good while d1/d2 but I have found some posts where they are more likely to come from town

Porscha seems to be tryharding which is probably town

Don't like Scotty shading me earlier, similar vibes to d1 I also think scotty could be teamed with Wilgy

Delta is hell to read. Martin did trend down for me since yesterday
and he's voting porscha for whatever reason alongside giving a terrible read of them earlier (its lylo -- who wouldn't tryhard or effort more?)

so,

Kinda just wanting to vote there and get all this fuss over with

I have been a let down and basically didn't solve as much as I would like. I am enjoying my vacation and tbh didn't really expect two nights without kills. its odd and too different for my understanding of setups.

I am clueless. Were you scumreading Delta and townreading Porscha?

I am townreading Wilgy and Scotty preety significantly, and have been for quite some time (despite re-evaluating them a few times), which leaves me with a poe of 3 wolves in you/robyn/delta/porscha

you thinking its wilgy/scotty, and even earlier thinking the best play is to vote off Stick is at odds with many of my conclusions this game

if anything what you're pushing is preety close to what I think the wolves would do if they wanted to win at LYLO and not do bussing

also

baker wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 11:57 am I am usually right on 2 of my scumreads on lylo and end up townreading the third one. Its not a perfect world but this is what I have^

baker wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 3:40 pm and I don't have the time or mental capacity to read everything atm, but from a quick skim today i established some ideas. i am not confident in anything. i need to be carried this game

I don't even know what to call this self-contradiction if he's town

yep

[VOTE: baker] aubergine

screw consolidation

honestly I haven't hit the vote button yet despite using the vote tags

I think I should just YOLO and vote baker and stay with it

Looks like town is gonna crash and burn. A whole bunch of independent wagons.

[VOTE: Porscha] aubergine

Also if baker's town I think we just lose because he seems to be perfectly opposite of me

baker wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 11:55 am I was paranoid of robyn for a good while d1/d2 but I have found some posts where they are more likely to come from town

Porscha seems to be tryharding which is probably town

Don't like Scotty shading me earlier, similar vibes to d1 I also think scotty could be teamed with Wilgy

Delta is hell to read. Martin did trend down for me since yesterday

and he's voting porscha for whatever reason alongside giving a terrible read of them earlier (its lylo -- who wouldn't tryhard or effort more?)

so,

Kinda just wanting to vote there and get all this fuss over with

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 2:37 am
MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 8:52 pm but if you want the vague answer

I think Wilgy has been very direct at times on trying to advance and solve the game, his interactions with scotty d2 made me feel positive about both of them, and just progression in general

even now his gameplan here seems to be rather pragmatic on trying to achieve his wincon and that's something I sympathize a bit with
you mean 'our wincon?'

Eh, just a frame of talking I got used to since talking and thinking about 3ps and wincons.

I also have a habit of judging people not through comparison to myself. More often I'm judging through theoretical plays and etc of which are not really related to myself except where my cognitive and preferential biases lie (and may or may not be aware of). Hence I'm more likely to frame it that way.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 12:31 am I'd hate to do this to stick but I kinda feel as though me making a case as to who's their protect target could be rather helpful in this situation.

Also, like, decent chance the mafia already have a preety good idea who it is considering they know who's mafia and therefore automatically very unlikely to be a protect target.

I'd hate to do this to stick but I kinda feel as though me making a case as to who's their protect target could be rather helpful in this situation.

Baker in pink because he's the "what if" of it all.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 11:42 pm D1 Mid
Abigail: Falcon, Scotty
LC: Martin, Garebare, Stick
Falcon: Wilgy
Baker: MR, Baker

D1 EoD
Abigail: FaLCon, Scotty
LC: Garebare
Falcon: Martin, Wilgy, Stick, Baker
Wilgy: LC
Baker: MR
Missing: Robyn, DM, Abigail

D2 Mid
Scotty: Baker
Abigail: LC
MR: Stick
DM: Martin
Stick: MR
Baker: DM, Wilgy, Scotty

D2 EoD
Scotty: Baker
DM: LC, Scotty, Stick, DM
Stick: MR, Martin
Baker: Wilgy
Missing: Robyn, Porshca

D3 Mid
Abigail/Porscha: MR
Stick: Baker
Garebare2468/Delta: Martin, LC, Wilgy, Scotty

D3 EoD
LC: Wilgy, Robyn, Scotty, Martin, Delta, Stick
Stick: MR, LC, Baker
Missing: Porscha

Mid D3 we would've had all non-town wagons

with my theory

Scotty wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 10:42 pm I think as a wolf, you’d still comment on your meta with baker. It’s an ingratiating tactic that I’ve used a lot as wolf- be as honest in your approach as possible, with details that stand out, but not revealing the actual motivation.

That is true, but I think alongside that there would be like, y'know, more theater or something between Baker and I so as to not accidentally draw any associatives prior to either of our hypothetical deaths. Like say both of us are wolves for the sake of argument, and that we're planning to use meta arguments. If one of us dies and the other has to use those arguments, those will likely end up sounding (or getting treated very similarly to) self-meta arguments.

If baker died D2 and flipped wolf, I would look preety bad from it I think. Yet we didn't really theater.

Scotty wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 10:42 pm You threatening me here to not double down feels oftly like an ‘or else’ type of threat. Like, I don’t care if you scum read me, I’m trying to figure out if I can townread *you.*

I completely agree that threating you was what I was doing there, as that would be a brilliant move by me. In other words, no, that wasn't my intent. Basically my past interactions with you generally don't have you end up shifting your opinions, or at least, if they do it's not clear if they ever do. At most you'd just give me a stare and then move on as if I no longer existed. I don't even really recall you townreading me, really.

Looking up now you actually have in one or two posts, but the reasoning was almost never given so I don't even know if what I've done in response to your interactions with me was responsible for that.

To be fair though I am in a bit of a grouchy mood IRL today. So maybe I just have a Problem (TM) and just didn't realize it -- I didn't think you would take it as a threat and maybe I'm being a bit uncharitable to you about interacting.

Scotty wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 10:42 pm Do you disagree that mafia have done absolutely nothing to advance any agenda? Because from your POE of Porscha/robyn/delta/baker, only baker is someone I would qualify as pushing the envelope, and that’s generous

I don't disagree, preety much. They're advancing agendas today because they need to. Again, its three of four so I could be wrong on Delta or whatever. I don't quite know which one I'm wrong on, but I suspect to some level I am right on Baker town.

I've been looking at you + wilgy + MR + etc on occasion preety often over the course of D2, D3, and now D4 and I keep comming back with townreads for the most part. I don't see why I should throw those in the trash in the presence of possible low-activity/influence scum team.

Also, like, the job I recently hosted on The Syndicate lost primarily to towns not finding each other lol. Wilgy here was bussing Darling Monroe in that game alllll day and yet neither of them died. Not to say that is exactly what's been happening here, but its partially why I'm more insistent on my town reads as of late.

Scotty wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 10:24 pm
Porscha wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 8:47 pm
Scotty wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 8:37 pm
MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 8:20 pm
Scotty wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 7:58 pm Their iso today says: “oh, stick is bad, 3p must die, this is my idea on how the NKs went down” and peacing. I do expect them back at some point regardless of alignment, but that screams lazy and a wolf looking to just take the easy road to the end
I've seen towns go for this very basic viewpoint/gameplan, particularly outside of The Syndicate (I'm look at you, GOC something-something where Alison hard-claimed 3p early on and just solo won the game lol)

but otherwise yes its something a wolf could easily do as well so I don't really see it as a plus for Baker
And I mean yes, in a non lylo situation (and if LC were alive he would attest), I have been spurned one too many times by letting a claimed 3p waltz to endgame. But like or not, we’re here at endgame and if baker truly believes stick is a 3p, that is beyond lazy thinking. I don’t know his town behavior, but based on how he came after me on D2, I’m confused about his motivations in general
how did come after you day 2?
I made a wagon attribute of falcon’s wagon and he was one of the 4 that I felt had an opportunistic motivation. He basically No-U’d me and said my post was a blatant attempt at smearing him. Or something like that. And then he just simmered there for the rest of the day, offering other reads but never moving from me.

@MartinGG99 is baker the type of person that gets extremely defensive when pressured *as town*? How about *as wolf*?

I think it varies on how much time he has on the game. I haven't seen many games where he's been able to be super-active over the past year, but as for the lower-ends of activity it lines up for town meta.

There is one wolf game in the past year (I don't know of any others of which I played with him or hosted) where he was preety defensive and assertive, but that may have been due to a closing/tightening mech situation.

Speaking of past games, I did do a bit of skimming to what he's said of me and he did make this statement once about me back in September (<- link to quote below), wherein that game he put me kinda firm at townread on d1:

Also, on a personal note: I believe I can read Martin very effectively due to certain reasons and history. My last meta read on him was accurate. Reading his champs game D1, I told MM how I could soulread Martin as mafia, and MM was underlining Axis to me. It turns out we were both correct xd

anyways gtg

will be back laterzzzz

(well before eod though)

Scotty wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 8:21 pm Ok this is important, because if you’re town, then this makes things easier, and there’s probably not a difference check between you. I’m just currently in my own Willy wonka factory and it’s called ‘Confirmation Bias’ and need to figure out if yall really are just wolf/wolf

Kinda surprised that if you're suspecting me then you're just taking my word for that, but you do you. If you reallllly want my comment on something let me know, but otherwise I'm not really going to engage you on the topic of me. I figure we prob have a few key differences in approaching the game which are probably some level of not-easily-reconciled (ex: "crazy"), in which case interaction between us might not help the situation all that much. Worst case could be like you doubling-down on me, and I might stupidly (I'm saying stupidly so I don't actually do that) reconsider you for just doubling down on me. Which would be really bad for town unity in LYLO.

but if you want the vague answer

I think Wilgy has been very direct at times on trying to advance and solve the game, his interactions with scotty d2 made me feel positive about both of them, and just progression in general

even now his gameplan here seems to be rather pragmatic on trying to achieve his wincon and that's something I sympathize a bit with

Porscha wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 8:21 pm
MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 8:16 pm
Scotty wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 7:51 pm I would be willing to bet baker is never wolves with Wilgy
Baker is someone I'm a bit doubtful is a wolf, hence my GTH earlier that its Robyn/Porscha/Delta, but I'm willing to hail-marry with others in hoping they're a wolf. He's probably a more likely wolf than Wilgy.
can you do me a favor and tell me why you tr wilgy please?

I think its difficult to describe outside of vagueness so I'll have to town-case later on the specific points that appeal to me

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 8:42 pm As for him "solving" me, I think he's already done that through his meta knowledge of me. I don't know what that is, I haven't really probed him on it, and it may be one of my bigger sources of confirmation bias.

To be more specific

he probably figured out some towntell of mine that I'm not aware

decent chance he's aware of something approaching that if he's had so much experience with me

Porscha wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 8:14 pm but do you think he has tried to solve you either? have you pushed on him at all in a way that might make him think he *should* have any reason to be afraid of you?

On d1 I was semi-firmly on him being town, something he was quite aware of and was visibly happy about (saying something about a good start or whatever I think).

Later d2 I was leaning towards voting him (and had voted iirc).

If he were wolf I very likely gave him a sense of safety on D1 but then shook it very hard for moments of d2.

If that doesn't make a wolf afraid, in addition to knowing we have many experiences together, I don't know what will.

As for him "solving" me, I think he's already done that through his meta knowledge of me. I don't know what that is, I haven't really probed him on it, and it may be one of my bigger sources of confirmation bias.

Porscha wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 8:13 pm
MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 6:58 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 6:50 pm If Robyn is town and knows how to read Baker better than me, then I should trust my better.
I'm preety sure I have the most experience with Baker in this game, just as much as he has the most experience with me. At the very least, I have known baker since the very first forum mafia game he has played.

At face-value I'd say if either of us was wolves then, based on the above, the other would be dead from an NK at some point. The lack of NKs probably messes with that to some extent, but I don't think Baker has really tried pocketing me at all (wherein I'm assuming pocket attempts is the alternative to trying to resolve the other from threatening wolves). At least, not with intention. At worst he's tried implicitly manipulating me a bit on early d2 but that wasn't much and it wasn't a consistent behavior so I think its safe to write it off.
the folly of believing baker would exclusively focus on specifically and only you because of experience is a great way to have the rug pulled out from under you. what did you think of robyn's case on baker earlier?

Don't really think its a folly. He knows I have him in mind a lot of the time -- a recent game (wherein both him and I were town) he was surprised post-game to learn that I had referenced him and his reads a few times post-death and talked about how I felt that we sometime seem to treat each other like rivals of a sort given that both our first games of forum mafia were together. Besides that point though -- he did have opportunity to try an address and interact with me directly but left it just sorta as a sidenote. At most he quotes me later on D2 talking about what he believes is equity value of chopping him. Nothing like a wolf that's afraid of or is concerned by me.

baker wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:14 am
Scotty wrote: ↑Wed Dec 27, 2023 7:56 pm
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Wed Dec 27, 2023 7:17 pm I like Scotty's vibe. Seems comfortable in the thread.

Someone tell me what makes him mafia if you think I'm wrong.
@baker my leige, take it away
I will believe Radishes re-entry was more on the towny side than the classical wolf entrance of "x is town, x and y fight makes no sense. lets look at z"

I am unfamiliar with most of you though so my read on the ranges can be bad. This is why I have been wanting to sheep someone for a few days. Also I had 2 tests at uni this week and one more to go on Saturday so I am busy.

I felt like robyn could be towny from their early D1 and sheeping them would be safe. I felt I am in a similar position due to my schedule.

So can someone explain what is the difference between garebare/Abi/robyn/me? FMPOV I am busy but trying my best to contribute with posts - contrary to Scotty/Martin calling me performative I actually had nothing calculated. robyn is yet to vote or push anyone and Abi is similary not taking any active participation. Garebare is a player in this game, i remember only one post from them. Are we all town and LHF? There is a good chance. Just because I sticked my head out a bit, I got 4 votes on me, makes me think we got a wolf pretending to solve the game

As for the Robyn case: Haven't really read it. I assumed it was a big post of post numbers and glazed over it.

Will probably look at later in-depth when I have time

Scotty wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 7:58 pm Their iso today says: “oh, stick is bad, 3p must die, this is my idea on how the NKs went down” and peacing. I do expect them back at some point regardless of alignment, but that screams lazy and a wolf looking to just take the easy road to the end

I've seen towns go for this very basic viewpoint/gameplan, particularly outside of The Syndicate (I'm look at you, GOC something-something where Alison hard-claimed 3p early on and just solo won the game lol)

but otherwise yes its something a wolf could easily do as well so I don't really see it as a plus for Baker

Scotty wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 7:51 pm I would be willing to bet baker is never wolves with Wilgy

Baker is someone I'm a bit doubtful is a wolf, hence my GTH earlier that its Robyn/Porscha/Delta, but I'm willing to hail-marry with others in hoping they're a wolf. He's probably a more likely wolf than Wilgy.

Scotty wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 7:44 pm
MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 6:58 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 6:50 pm If Robyn is town and knows how to read Baker better than me, then I should trust my better.
I'm preety sure I have the most experience with Baker in this game, just as much as he has the most experience with me. At the very least, I have known baker since the very first forum mafia game he has played.

At face-value I'd say if either of us was wolves then, based on the above, the other would be dead from an NK at some point. The lack of NKs probably messes with that to some extent, but I don't think Baker has really tried pocketing me at all (wherein I'm assuming pocket attempts is the alternative to trying to resolve the other from threatening wolves). At least, not with intention. At worst he's tried implicitly manipulating me a bit on early d2 but that wasn't much and it wasn't a consistent behavior so I think its safe to write it off.
Not to prod against your baker meta, because I think it is valuable, but if the game is really mech’d out with mafia not getting NKs the first 2 nights, doesn’t that change the way a person approaches the game?

This isn’t me trying to smear baker, but the possibility I’m looking at is- what has baker done since the we’ve had a NK? Do you think baker *always* NKs you instead of MR last night? If the answer is yes, that is probably really informative

the theory is that if two players are very familiar or experienced with each other

then if one of them is wolf the other will eventually see the other as a potential obstacle based on fear of meta knowledge and etc and take actions towards that

a similar example of that, of which you may or may not be more familiar with, is when Alison and Macdougall exist in a game on a syndicate

if one is a wolf and the other is not then they generally are trying to resolve each other at some point to further their wincons, if both are alive late-game then either they're both town and have been very wrong at some point or both of them are wolves

I don't think Baker has done anything directly to me to try and convince me he's not a wolf. He's just been in his own world, and only bad thing I can remember in that department was the mention of the appeal to me. He doesn't seem to be afraid of me at all really.

Scotty wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 7:41 pm
MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 6:45 pm Presently of the mind that its 3 wolves between

robyn/delta/porscha/baker

I've now permanently removed Scotty. He's now in a position equal to Stick -- I wouldn't ever consider consolidating on them. In theory DrWilgy is possible for me to consolidate on but I really wouldn't like to encourage people to go hard-core and glue on to him just so they can force my vote on a plausible town. I vibe with DrWilgy's latest pragmatic takes and some of his seeming conflicts -- reminds me of some past LYLO situations I've been in as town while being unconfident.

I would very much like to see both Wilgy and Scotty on the same wagon by the end of the day. I would join them as well no matter who they were voting if they were together on that vote. Except Stick, but I don't expect that to happen for raisins.
What? Why have you removed me and not Wilgy from your list?

I strongly disagree with who we should vote out, based on history.

The forefront of my thinking since there’s still no wolf flips is that D1 wagon: >stick, Martin, Wilgy, baker<

Removing stick from the equation, I’m left with you three, who I have had at tops of my town reads list off and on through most the game. IMO at least one of those is a hit and I’d like to vote there today.

Well one way or another we're finding out who's the crazy one.

I'm mostly just getting my reads from recent events, by the way, not d1. Last time D1 had any significant relevance in my mind was like maybe early d3 at latest. Beyond that its been a footnote in history.

If my solving lead me to (in effect, not as if it were some goal that I was trying to verify) conclude that all of that wagon was 3 town and 1 3p, and that all of abi's d1 wagon was town, that is what my reads have led me to. Crazy or not. Maybe I'm bad but I'm not going to tinfoil my own skill level -- that's just a recipe for not getting confident in anything and just snowballing where-ever the wind blows.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 6:50 pm If Robyn is town and knows how to read Baker better than me, then I should trust my better.

I'm preety sure I have the most experience with Baker in this game, just as much as he has the most experience with me. At the very least, I have known baker since the very first forum mafia game he has played.

At face-value I'd say if either of us was wolves then, based on the above, the other would be dead from an NK at some point. The lack of NKs probably messes with that to some extent, but I don't think Baker has really tried pocketing me at all (wherein I'm assuming pocket attempts is the alternative to trying to resolve the other from threatening wolves). At least, not with intention. At worst he's tried implicitly manipulating me a bit on early d2 but that wasn't much and it wasn't a consistent behavior so I think its safe to write it off.

Presently of the mind that its 3 wolves between

robyn/delta/porscha/baker

I've now permanently removed Scotty. He's now in a position equal to Stick -- I wouldn't ever consider consolidating on them. In theory DrWilgy is possible for me to consolidate on but I really wouldn't like to encourage people to go hard-core and glue on to him just so they can force my vote on a plausible town. I vibe with DrWilgy's latest pragmatic takes and some of his seeming conflicts -- reminds me of some past LYLO situations I've been in as town while being unconfident.

I would very much like to see both Wilgy and Scotty on the same wagon by the end of the day. I would join them as well no matter who they were voting if they were together on that vote. Except Stick, but I don't expect that to happen for raisins.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 4:27 am thought it would be more like pseudo

ebwop

Absolutely no idea how I conjured up that horrible cacophony of grammatical errors.

well rip

ofc this day wasn't going to be simple, was hoping an out was possible but nope

Hmmmm....If we vote out a mafia today and they somehow do neutralize the 3p along with a town by killing the confirmed town

that leaves us with 2 mafia and 3 town

so the math does check out on that and it would still be LYLO

for a moment there I mistakenly thought it would me more quite be more pseudo lylo wherein if they just killed the confirmed town then our correct votes wouldn't matter at all

Porscha wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 3:06 am when I read the way stick claimed 3p, I doubted it... a survivor type claim gives me the heebie jeebies. popular mafia claim where I learned how to play. so I actually looked through some of stick's iso to see how she had been playing - and honestly, I disagree with robyn / baker that she hasn't played townie to at least some degree. I do actually think stick was probably trying to figure out what alignment her target is unless it is specifically <redacted> (I will wait for her to decide if she wants to reveal who it is, b/c honestly I'm not sure it matters right now. even stick herself does not know the alignment of her target ... we can speculate that her target is theoretically town based on host claiming mylo/lylo today, but we don't know. like, what if we are working in a world where it's 2/2/4? what if stick 's target is neither town or mafia? hell, what if they even know of each other and their win con is something like "x person must survive until end game - person y must ensure x lives regardless of whether person y stays alive or not" or I dunno, maybe it's more like how stick said it is, where she acts more like a lawyer from among us where she knows her target and they just dont know of their lawyer.

sorry for the mental tanget, but what I was originally trying to say is that I now believe stick's claim based on her play. *If* her role is as described, how would I play it? Survivor needs to appear towny to some degree, right? If you're wolfy and claim it when you get wagoned early, it's a keklmao, now you're going over for sure. from her own iso, that doesn't seem to have happened, "that" being that she was notably skating by or actively wolfy. but she also said today she can die and get the win as long as her target doesn't ever die. I don't think there is any reason for her alleged win con to avoid saying who the target is - we aren't ever going to vote her today to specifically ruin her wincon when town's wincon is now or never on the line. but she might be worried about the alignment of her target and bringing a spotlight to them or something like that, if she doesn't know their alignment and suspects they are wolfing. (but then i'm not sure how much she could lean into saying she town sided yesterday, if that's how she feels) - ultimately the suspicion (if we take it her role description at face value) of her target's may play into how much she wants to reveal who it is. maybe they just have never been in danger and she wants to keep it that way, obviously, for her own benefit.

I am willing to give robyn some benefit of the doubt in their belief that they think stick hasn't played very towny this game, because ultimately they aren't trying to push any agenda with it. town needs to avoid a 3p lynch today or face almost-certain loss. what I don't like is that baker hopped on that thought in agreement and then also tried convincing us it's worth killing stick lol. it almost feels too obvious... I'll at least give him the point that I haven't read any of his earlier posts in the game, but I'm worried it's just testing the waters to see how pliable the thread might be to giving into a poor lynch that pretty much guarantee a wolf win.

this is such high-density with thoughts while rambling about a 3p I'm inclined to say its one of those cases where a wolf finds a bit of mech (I realize its not entirely that, but the conclusion/topic is strongly related to mech) to talk about it and either consciously or unconsciously stretches it out

like this sort of dumping of thought process can help me see someone town but like its better if its something more nuanced and less mech-related, seeing this on a specific claim or whatever is just eugh

only -1 though, cuz I'm probably too biased in that opinion for it to be very accurate

Scotty wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 3:02 am I am unmoved in thinking stick is lying about her alignment. The whole thing reeks of a gambit trying to save her own ass at end of day yesterday and now that we’re in lylo, she has some cheerleaders to help her along.

I mean, if you had a wincon to protect someone (wherein you may or may not need yourself strictly alive) would you out yourself d1 to accomplish that?

I can think of a few reasons but it would just be improper of me to say them without stick defending themselves on that first.

also, like, we can judge their claim based on how they've acted towards the person they're supposedly protecting or whatever

Scotty wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 2:56 am I feel like there’s a bit of confbiasing, because in the scenario where stick is wolf…they just name someone not on their team and call it a baked apple pie.

that is possible but if you agree on the point that the 3p of which exists somewhere is town-siding (or likely townsiding due to wincon)

why don't they just counter-claim and say stick is 10000% wolf?

I guess maybe they would wait to allow the game to advance based on solving and etc and just claim later once that has happened, but really I don't think Stick is anything other than the 3p.

yeah I think that's how I should solve the game

try both ways and if I don't arrive to a conclusion find out where I'm having problems and then focus on those people

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 12:25 am just find 4 towns

well, including yourself ofc

there's two ways to solve and it didn't occur to me earlier

just find 4 towns

or just find 3 mafia

and asking for the reveal earlier can be preety useful for the first case, maybe a bit for the second, but I would idealistically think revealing it later helps with both better

robyn wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 12:06 am i'm gonna assume baker/you/stick/stick's +1 are all town and voila

you know what actually re-reading this that doesn't sound too bad ngl

granted I suppose we could be having completely different standards of activity come to think of it

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