The Syndicate

gg all! this was a really intense and fun game even if it was very stressful at points and even if i may have gotten pocketed for a bunch of days in a row :P i really enjoyed the flavor and the generally chill atmosphere of this game

would love to see dead chat/wolf chat if they exist

yay! gg!!!! this was so intense lol

is there a spec chat?

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Wed Jun 16, 2021 2:45 pm Gg I was maf lol

were you actually?

im gay

[VOTE: c4e5g3d5
] aubergine

sorry if im wrong, i put a lot of thought into this in both directions, everyone played well, etc etc

alright

work got frustratingly busy at an inconvenient time so give me like 30 minutes-an hour and i'll hammer. would be very interested in seeing your best cases for why i shouldnt vote you in the meantime

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:52 pm SPF please. I'm gay. Just let us win in the end please

oh f*ck, you busted out the old: "i'm gay" appeal. i have no choice now

c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:47 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:44 pm yeah i dont slowroll, im just town

im gonna think for a while and then place my vote. i would be interested in hearing both of you give me the strongest reasons for

A. why you shouldnt be hammered

B. why the other person should be hammered

A. Go read CoV again first
B. Been trying to get others to talk to me about this guy for days and I've gotten "there's more nuance that you haven't been told yet but reevaluate your own reads first because you're the one who made the mistake"

1. do you think that you're out of your wolfrange? if so, in what way?

2. what's the wolfiest thing about dizzy that you want to bring to my attention?

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:45 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:44 pm yeah i dont slowroll, im just town

im gonna think for a while and then place my vote. i would be interested in hearing both of you give me the strongest reasons for

A. why you shouldnt be hammered

B. why the other person should be hammered

A. I'll give you a myriad, if you need it. You were right, and I was just overly careful and paranoid. And I have zero reason to be if I was mafia. I'm town.

B. He's scum.

if c4 is a wolf, why do you think he voted for you instead of voting for me? seems like he had a much higher chance of winning by getting you to try to mishammer, dont you think?

yeah i dont slowroll, im just town

im gonna think for a while and then place my vote. i would be interested in hearing both of you give me the strongest reasons for

A. why you shouldnt be hammered

B. why the other person should be hammered

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:39 pm Ok gg. I guess SPF was mafia.

Poll seems to be closed so

the poll is still open

interesting. didnt expect things to go in that direction

or am i? :P

lol gg i was maf

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:26 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:24 pmfmpov as a wolf, i would be aware that you ended yesterday by explicitly saying that you thought that i was a wolf in a world where visor is a villager. i would also be aware that you have very clearly sought out reasons to confirm your belief that c4 is a villager today. the fact that i could present a comprehensive case for c4 being a wolf and you could still be unsure about yourself should be a pretty firm indicator that i would simply push on you as a wolf instead of trying to talk you out of your read on c4

Sure.
But I don't know if this even matters. Cause it doesn't seem like this is even up to me.

you think so? i think that today ends with you hammering between me and c4 in most realities, unless c4 calls my bluff and votes for you

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:22 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:20 pmno disrespect, but i'm pretty fucking fierce when i have to be as well. i would be more than happy to get into an intense battle with you as a wolf, and in a world where i'm a wolf that has pocketed c4 for the entirety of this game, then i would also be pretty confident that i would win

Well, yeah, that's fair. And you would probably win with going the other route as well. Basically, if you're wolf, you've probably already won when we chopped Visor. Re me saying Visor was right about everything. Which means this is a waste of time. And also why I'm spending more effort being critical of you, to at least give it a try and see if it's even possible to poke at that potential golden position.

fmpov as a wolf, i would be aware that you ended yesterday by explicitly saying that you thought that i was a wolf in a world where visor is a villager. i would also be aware that you have very clearly sought out reasons to confirm your belief that c4 is a villager today. the fact that i could present a comprehensive case for c4 being a wolf and you could still be unsure about yourself should be a pretty firm indicator that i would simply push on you as a wolf instead of trying to talk you out of your read on c4

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:17 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:13 pmit doesn't matter if you personally would have bought it, because my path to victory as a wolf in this scenario is always to just play off of c4's scumread on you and try to convince him to vote you. if you are actually a villager then this should not be nearly as difficult of a decision as you are to be making it out

Technicality, but I think it does matter. Cause I'm fucking fierce if I have to be. And you going from thinking I'm town to going after me in F3 would just be unnatural.

And to your last sentence, maybe you're right. Actually, you probably are. But it's pretty hard to trust that it could just be c4 and then we basically have this in the bag, cause he's probably just cornered if it is, because in about every F3 I've been in, it's been a mafia win (regardless of my alignment lol)

no disrespect, but i'm pretty fucking fierce when i have to be as well. i would be more than happy to get into an intense battle with you as a wolf, and in a world where i'm a wolf that has pocketed c4 for the entirety of this game, then i would also be pretty confident that i would win

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:12 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:01 pm if c4 is a wolf then he knows that i'm suspicious of him, which means that if he directly thunderdomes with dizzy, he'll probably end up losing. at the same time, he can't directly thunderdome with me, because he's called me "obvious" town for the entirety of this game

but c4, as a wolf, does know that dizzy is actively suspicious of me, and that there's a solid chance that he'll end up misvoting me when things are all said and done

so, if c4 is a wolf, that puts him in a position where he has to hope that i vote for him and that dizzy mishammers me, because the alternative (voting for dizzy) would lead to him losing much of the time. this aligns pretty well with the approach he's taken today, although i am admittedly worried that he's a villager

I mean, yeah. This is what I've been considering. Cause I'm wondering, if c4 is so confident in me being the last wolf, or conversely maybe, so confident that you have to be town, then why is he not just voting me? Like, I don't want that to happen if he is town, cause then it's a loss. But I kind of do want that to happen if he is mafia, cause then you would become confirmed for me by not hammering, and he'll lose. But he knows this, so obviously he isn't going to vote me as mafia and let you confirm yourself to me. So maybe he's just waiting for either me to vote first (but I'm not totally dumb, so I'm not going to do that) or for you to vote first, so that he can have that "Oh, shit, Dizzy isn't snap voting me, he must be town then" and vote you and hope for me to mishammer.

It's a really awkward spot. Cause I really want to know why he isn't doing more to get clear, or what he is even considering, or if he's just biding his time here? And the more he's just meh-ing and hedging and not getting anywhere, the more I think he's just mafia who's trying to bide his time until this triangle clears up and he can have a come to jesus moment after you vote, and then hope for me to mishammer.

Which kind of makes me want to force him to vote first.

But then... I'm wasting my time, basically.

i've been tempted to try to force him to vote first too, but i was worried that doing so would make you more suspicious of me if youre a villager (since c4 voting first would be optimal FMPOV as a wolf, in the hopes that he would vote for you and "clear" me)

if c4 is a wolf then i mostly think that he's hedging and biding his time and leaving open a world where either you or me can be a wolf because he's hoping that i will vote for him and you will mishammer on me, like you have been suggesting that you might for the entirety of this day. it's a pretty smart strategy if that is what he's actually doing

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Wed Jun 16, 2021 12:38 pm SPF started out scum reading you over me. I think she basically would have to if she was a wolf. I would not buy a scum read on me at this point. And it's pretty clear that you have been FoSed more than me both from SPF and everyone else.

it doesn't matter if you personally would have bought it, because my path to victory as a wolf in this scenario is always to just play off of c4's scumread on you and try to convince him to vote you. if you are actually a villager then this should not be nearly as difficult of a decision as you are to be making it out

from c4's POV as a wolf, it is strategically optimal for him to not take a strong stance, and instead hedge while hoping that one of us makes a mistake first

so while i am not arguing that c4's approach to today is inherently wolfy, i am arguing that it aligns with how i anticipate he would approach today if he ~WAS~ a wolf

and my attempts to see more from him have largely gone nowhere

if c4 is a villager then i really want to find him but his posts feel like a broken record - i feel like he's stalling for time instead of going anywhere notable and ive never seen him frozen like this before

i feel like dizzy calling c4's ISO "good" and calling my iso "Fine" is a deliberate prank

if c4 is a wolf then he knows that i'm suspicious of him, which means that if he directly thunderdomes with dizzy, he'll probably end up losing. at the same time, he can't directly thunderdome with me, because he's called me "obvious" town for the entirety of this game

but c4, as a wolf, does know that dizzy is actively suspicious of me, and that there's a solid chance that he'll end up misvoting me when things are all said and done

so, if c4 is a wolf, that puts him in a position where he has to hope that i vote for him and that dizzy mishammers me, because the alternative (voting for dizzy) would lead to him losing much of the time. this aligns pretty well with the approach he's taken today, although i am admittedly worried that he's a villager

i'm going to bed. i'll be here in like 8-9 hours, or whenever i get some downtime at work. i'll place my vote at 5:00 PM EST at the very latest. goodnight

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Wed Jun 16, 2021 4:17 am

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed Jun 16, 2021 4:16 am i am stoned so if these posts were wolfy then i take no responsibility

Coffee tell = stoned tell

And how where they townier than anything else you posted today lol

i realized that as a villager you primarily make reads based on vibing w/people and getting into the same headspace as them

and i havent really done that today - i've been kinda tense w/my replies to you and ive been operating with Cold Hard Facts, because that's the way my brain solves 3-ways

so fypov as a villager i can see why you would see the posts where im more "open" and less tense as villagery for me, even though i feel like theyre wolfy because im essentially just rambling lol

maybe it's villagery for you to find those posts villagery in the first place, but i feel like that's a shaky read

i am stoned so if these posts were wolfy then i take no responsibility

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Wed Jun 16, 2021 4:11 am @staypositivefriend I'm asking you to be patient with me.

i have been internally tinfoiling you as a wolf for hours now, so trust me, i'm not impatient, lol. i understand why it might be difficult for you to find me with confidence in a world where you are a villager, and i've been trying to make that process easier by being very vocal and very loud about my thoughts today. i'm sorry for being a bit aggressive/harsh with you at points though, i think some of my posting has been stressing you out more than it's helped you find me

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Wed Jun 16, 2021 3:54 am

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed Jun 16, 2021 3:46 am

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Wed Jun 16, 2021 3:34 am One thing I haven't considered is... SPF posting a huge wall of very good reasons why I'm not wolf and not teamed with Dya/Vul is also not scummy. Cause if she's wolf, she doesn't want to convince c4 that I'm in fact town. Lol.

that's correct. if i'm a wolf then i want c4 to vote for you before i vote for him - it would be much easier to appeal directly to c4 and pretend like i "found" him instead of taking the harder route and trying to get you, who explicitly wolfread me at the end of yesterday, to vote for c4. the fact that i have been pretty harsh toward your posts today is also not the type of approach i'd be taking if my ultimate goal was to convince you to vote for c4

Can you accept that I'm really scared though, if you're town?
Maybe it's paranoia, but gut feeling is not good right now.
Also, why is c4 still on trying to make a me wolf happen? Is it just cause he can't naturally walk back on his read on you? Is he hedging to not get outed?

if you want my honest opinion, if you really are town, then you should ignore c4 completely from here on out. focus solely on my posts. focus solely on reading me

i got the impression that you came into today feeling like i must be a wolf based on visor leaving me as his final legacy and based on you being suspicious of me at the end of yesterday, and i have felt that much of your posting has been based around "confirming" your intuitive belief that c4 is a villager instead of evaluating us both from a neutral position and then starting from there. i feel like your gut points to me being a wolf but you're scared of voting for me and losing to the "easy" answer of c4. that's why i think you should stop caring about c4 (or about winning, in general) and just focus on whether or not you think MY posts are villagery, independent of everything

if you're a wolf then this post is gonna age so badly lol

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Wed Jun 16, 2021 3:44 am

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Jun 15, 2021 6:43 pm @dizzy - a couple of other things:

-you're generally correct that wolves don't tend to hard townread their partners at the beginning of the game, but you might be overstating it a bit by saying that it is "extremely rare". i almost lost the LYLO of a mountainous game for this exact reason - marluxion (a wolf) had strongly townread two other players at the beginning of the game, and both of them were wolves! i almost mishammered because of the belief that marl would not immediately TR his 2 partners, and if you're a villager then im warning you right now that putting stock into micro things like that is going to get you burned sooner than later

I have also done it. But I do it on purpose for the wifom. I would say it is rather rare. I think c4's first town read on Vul is NAI, because it comes after both Arete and Marl has also outed their strong town reads on Vul (And Vul was acting very towny). But the phrase of "No, he just is town" is pretty ballsy as scum. I mean... it is though.

-same thing about putting too much trust in c4 not having enough knowledge about mechanics - c4 was clearly not very invested in this game past d1 and making assumptions about how much information he would have had about what went down during the night phases is effectively just speculation (and i mean, all of mafia is, but the speculation here is inherently even more baseless than other types)

It is speculation, you're right. And I do generally think it's dangerous to speculate what is going on in wolf chat, cause I just don't know. And also, I think it's easy to assume that wolves plan and chat more in wolf chat than they typically do. That being said, this did stick out to me, and I can't really skip over it either.

Is there a reason you skipped over this btw?

And also the point where it looked like c4 missed that I had linked Dya and Vul togheter?

^I think those two points are very interesting in my ISO.

And I realise now that if I'm going to argue that c4 is town to you, then you have to argue that I'm scum, which isn't going to go over well for me lol. But did these posts strike you at all?

-you said this in your post about c4: "But then, c4's posts are actually overall quite good and I follow his mindset, and even where there's flip that also looks natural."

um.....excuse me??? you agreed with me on the last page that c4's flip on dya was wolfy, and then you not only did not mention it a single time in your ISO of him (from what i could tell), you went on to say that his flips have actually not been wolfy at all. what!? are we reading the same game?

Actually, you're half right. There are a few flips that doesn't make sense. The Dya one on D2 is one. However, he did explain this, and I did ask him about it specifically. And the Vul vote is still out of the blue kind of.

I mean, the things I was the most hmmm about, I asked about.

But him opening with a scum read on you, and then retracting it, I think that looks pretty natural. And this is very much a bias I have, but if I use the lens of "could a townie think this", I follow most of his game. This may be frustrating.

I have a few hours before work now. Going to start reading your ISO. And then Vul's. And then see who's landing on top here.

But ultimately, I don't know if it even matters. It feels to me like whatever team c4 is on is going to lose with how this is going.

-i mean, sure, it is a bold thing to do as a wolf, but i don't think that's a good reason to townread someone on d8 of a 107+ page game. i said that micro reads like that are going to backfire on you because any game of this length is going to have posts that look really good for any player - it's more important to consider c4's posting/progressions as a whole, imo

-i skipped over the mechanics posts partially because i dont really like reads that are based on mechanics in general, but also because i dont think that "c4 would have understood how the jailkeeper works" is a good way to townread someone, let alone someone that was barely invested in that point of the game. ftr, i thought the specific post that you quoted where c4 reacts to the news about vulgard was actually wolfy, because c4 talks about vulgard in a nervous, hedgy way after spending the rest of the game prior to that point confidently townreading him - it felt like he was struggling to talk about vulgard in general at that stage of the game because of TMI

-your point about c4 not realizing that you had pointed out that dya/vulgard were teamed also doesn't really resonate with me because c4 was clearly not closely reading every post w/a high attention to detail, and the discussion of your read on dya/vulgard did not extend very much beyond a couple of brief exchanges on d1/d2

-you don't agree that it's wolfy that dyachei and c4 spent d1 primarily shielding/being apathetic about one another, only for both of them to turn on each other aggressively and theatrically during d2?

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Wed Jun 16, 2021 3:34 am One thing I haven't considered is... SPF posting a huge wall of very good reasons why I'm not wolf and not teamed with Dya/Vul is also not scummy. Cause if she's wolf, she doesn't want to convince c4 that I'm in fact town. Lol.

that's correct. if i'm a wolf then i want c4 to vote for you before i vote for him - it would be much easier to appeal directly to c4 and pretend like i "found" him instead of taking the harder route and trying to get you, who explicitly wolfread me at the end of yesterday, to vote for c4. the fact that i have been pretty harsh toward your posts today is also not the type of approach i'd be taking if my ultimate goal was to convince you to vote for c4

c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 15, 2021 8:35 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Jun 15, 2021 6:45 pm c4, what's the wolfiest thing that either me or dizzy have done today?

what's the towniest thing that either of us have done?

give me something to work with

Your spew wall was written in the performative tone that you always have as a wolf
Sorta doubt you have the not melding w/ Dizzy => paranoia take as a wolf

I... don't think Dizzy has done anything particularly wolfy today
The me ISO looked genuine and also counterintuitive for w!Dizzy here

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Jun 15, 2021 7:02 pm c4, if youre town, then i really need you to give me ~anything~. it can be the sloppiest, most badly worded posting of your entire life - i just wanna hear the raw towniness from you. the only reality where i can see myself townreading you in this game is if you bleed town, and you definitely are not going to do that at your current trajectory

Clearly not gonna get there on WIM, and I've never really had a towniness switch like that in general. Would doing more exercises like #5322 help you? Think I have a little time.

yeah, sure. i just want to see your unfiltered thoughts in the rawest way that i can. to me it feels like you are presenting possibilities of either me or dizzy being a wolf without actually taking a stance in either direction

let's start here: if you had to vote right now, who would you vote for? if you feel uncomfortable with your answer, then talk about why. tell me what your plan is to get to a more confident answer. you have less than 24 hours to decide, at any rate

c4, if youre town, then i really need you to give me ~anything~. it can be the sloppiest, most badly worded posting of your entire life - i just wanna hear the raw towniness from you. the only reality where i can see myself townreading you in this game is if you bleed town, and you definitely are not going to do that at your current trajectory

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Tue Jun 15, 2021 6:56 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Jun 15, 2021 6:47 pm i really appreciate the work that dizzy put into ISO'ing c4 and sharing his thoughts, but i don't understand how we both read the same ISO and there is virtually zero overlap in our observations, or conclusions, or our overall impressions of his posts. even the stuff he agreed with me on is missing from his analysis of c4. i just dont get it

It’s not really (in my head anyway) But I think I’m approaching this from trying to find the most sure sign of who is town. I think that is safer, as town can be scummy, but I’ve historically done better finding things only town would do.

And I haven’t done your iso yet.
And not Vul’s, which I definitely want to.
So I haven’t made my mind up.
KZA and Dya spew on you as town is still weighing on me.

On phone now and 1 am, so will likely not get deep into things now.

i suppose that your analysis of c4 makes slightly more sense if you were explicitly looking for reasons to townread him instead of approaching it neutrally - it just worries me that all of the points that i feel suggest that c4 is a wolf based on his ISO alone are basically entirely missing from your own analysis of him. it also worries me that your feelings about c4 being a villager are predicated on logic that primarily feels like WIFOM to me. part of me wants to loudly go: "how are you missing all of this important stuff!?" but another part of me is worried that youre a wolf that is just leaving stuff out that you would naturally include as a villager lol

i really appreciate the work that dizzy put into ISO'ing c4 and sharing his thoughts, but i don't understand how we both read the same ISO and there is virtually zero overlap in our observations, or conclusions, or our overall impressions of his posts. even the stuff he agreed with me on is missing from his analysis of c4. i just dont get it

c4, what's the wolfiest thing that either me or dizzy have done today?

what's the towniest thing that either of us have done?

give me something to work with

the fact that dizzy and i are looking at the same ISO and coming out with absurdly diametrically opposed conclusions makes me doubtful and paranoid about everything lol

@dizzy - a couple of other things:

-you're generally correct that wolves don't tend to hard townread their partners at the beginning of the game, but you might be overstating it a bit by saying that it is "extremely rare". i almost lost the LYLO of a mountainous game for this exact reason - marluxion (a wolf) had strongly townread two other players at the beginning of the game, and both of them were wolves! i almost mishammered because of the belief that marl would not immediately TR his 2 partners, and if you're a villager then im warning you right now that putting stock into micro things like that is going to get you burned sooner than later

-same thing about putting too much trust in c4 not having enough knowledge about mechanics - c4 was clearly not very invested in this game past d1 and making assumptions about how much information he would have had about what went down during the night phases is effectively just speculation (and i mean, all of mafia is, but the speculation here is inherently even more baseless than other types)

-you said this in your post about c4: "But then, c4's posts are actually overall quite good and I follow his mindset, and even where there's flip that also looks natural."

um.....excuse me??? you agreed with me on the last page that c4's flip on dya was wolfy, and then you not only did not mention it a single time in your ISO of him (from what i could tell), you went on to say that his flips have actually not been wolfy at all. what!? are we reading the same game?

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Tue Jun 15, 2021 5:40 pm Two more things:

- If c4 is wolf, it doesn’t make as much sense to me that both Vul and Dya decided to lolcat and basically give up? I don’t think c4 was in a position to carry, whereas spf was. Alternatively they just didn’t care I guess.

hm, i actually have the opposite take on this. at the time that vulgard got outed, dya and c4 were both more or less consensus POE players, and their odds of living until the endgame were incredibly low. in a world where vul/c4/dya is the wolfteam, then vulgard WAS the carry. if the player that's intended to survive until the endgame gets outed by mechanics and the remaining 2 wolves are in the consensus POE, then it makes total sense to me why vul/dya would start lolcatting. they probably thought the game was a loss. i actually think they would most likely put MORE effort into playing up their fights for survival in a world where, say, i'm a wolf and they're trying to set me up for the endgame

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Tue Jun 15, 2021 5:40 pm - Also, on D4, c4 really spent time clearing everyone but Syn and me + Dya. The way he plays it seems like a losing battle if wolf. Counter argument is maybe how else should he have played it? Opening PoE would be obviously scummy.

i mean, in a world where you're a wolf in c4's position, who exactly do you push on outside of syn/dya/yourself? arguably, c4's push on you was an attempt to open up the POE and save you as a plausible mischop for the endgame, and anything beyond that might have been pushing his luck. there was even a moment where c4 threw me back into his personal POE and then backtracked when he got heat for it - not to mention that he put outed wolf in his poe yesterday in spite of STRONGLY townreading him before that point. regardless of c4's alignment, this line of reasoning is not consistent with what c4 actually did in this game

im gay

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Tue Jun 15, 2021 4:13 pm And it doesn't really make sense that you would be so worried about me being so critical of you. If I was wolf, I'm pretty sure I could surf into a win with us voting c4. If I was a wolf, then I probably would be more invested in commenting and propping up your book about how c4 and not me is the wolf here. Don't you think? Or has this not struck you?

that has occurred to me, but i care more about seeing signs that you are genuinely trying to solve the game more than i care about how much you are or aren't pushing on me. you probably could have an easier time as a wolf by just vaguely agreeing w/me that c4 is wolfy and leaving it at that, so i might agree with you that your approach to today and your paranoia toward me is villagery, but that's so much more WIFOM-y than me just being able to look at your posts and say: "cool, dizzy is really trying to solve the game!", you know?

to be clear, i still think that you're probably a villager, and i don't mean to stress you out. i just feel like if there's any time to kick things into gear in this game, it's right now. i hope to see the results of your own readthrough

i am at work but i am "here". i should be online around the same time tomorrow, but my level of investment will depend on how busy work is

@Dizzy -

to answer your question - yes. if you are a villager in the f3 of an intense game and someone that you are unsure about posts a large wall of text closely analyzing the near-entirety of the game and of another person that you're unsure about, then i do expect you to have SOMETHING to say about it, yeah. is that naïve of me? is it unreasonable for me to expect a post that dives very deeply into my personal feelings about the game to have some type of impact into how you're perceiving the game as well?

but even if it doesn't have an impact on you, the bigger problem was that i felt the post you made in the last page is a post that could largely be copy and pasted from 2 dayphases ago with very little changes, and it would have looked completely natural. most of the points were just kind of vague, and largely based on stuff that you've already said in the past dayphases. i do consider repetition and a lack of flexibility w/scumhunting to be a wolftell, especially in a f3 scenario where things need to Get Serious, so surely you can understand why that post from you raised my concerns, yeah?

i relate to the "being apathetic to protect myself from disappointment" thing - that's the exact mindset that i've been in that i've been making a point to snap out of today, and i guess a part of me does feel urgent and frustrated that you two have not done the same yet

also, the c4 thing is interesting because i've caught a lot of wolves in the past by observing dissonance between the way that they talk about their fate in the game vs their actions. c4's actions did not appear to reflect the mindset of: "i would like to die before the f3, please", and that was the cause of my concern

c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 15, 2021 2:38 pm

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Tue Jun 15, 2021 1:37 pm @c4e5g3d5 Can you talk a little bit more about how you square this situation right now?

Do you still think SPF is definitely town? Does her long walls make you think she's town?

The walls? Oh fuck no, that's as squarely inside her wolf range as it gets. It's just her whole approach this game that's hard to see as anything other than playing by discovery. As a wolf I think she really needs to carefully plan everything, because if she doesn't she'll toss salads like I've seen her do before. Her wall today could easily be viewed as that brand of planned, and the dramatic wording is characteristic of her wolf game, but her play in early days less so.

I ignored dya D1 because I thought Seth spewed them. I abruptly didn't think Seth spewed dya on D2. Then I saw that opportunistic dichotomy.

@staypositivefriend I don't know what to do with this information but you definitely didn't include Vulgard's entire treatment of me because neighborhood.

there were a couple of posts from vulgard about you that i deliberately left out because i felt like they were overly WIFOM-y/posted with the intention to confuse anyone that read them in future phases. i touched on vulgard's treatment of you re: the neighborhood a little bit, but you're right that it wasn't really my focus. do you think that vulgard's treatment of you should spew you as a villager?

also, where's your head at? i want you to take a firm stance. am i a wolf? is dizzy is a wolf? if dizzy is a wolf, then what am i missing? help me see it! i feel like i'm playing a one woman 3-way right now, and i need more content from both of you

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Tue Jun 15, 2021 1:45 pm How sure are you in your conclusion?

If you're sure, what is the reason you haven't placed a vote yet?
I'm not saying you should, but I'm asking about it to hear your perspective on it.

if i had to vote right now, i would vote for c4. i am still worried about you being a wolf. i'm unable to give any percentages beyond that

i haven't voted yet because i consider it common courtesy to wait at ~least 24 hours before placing a vote in a f3 scenario, unless the wolf is 100% mechanically confirmed to me. i also haven't voted because neither you or c4 have had the opportunity to fully flesh out and present your thoughts yet, and that's what i'm waiting for

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Tue Jun 15, 2021 2:02 pm Jumbled thoughts be like

- My prediction is that the team c4 is on is going to lose.
- c4 is a much easier vote to make for me just from the amount of work SPF is putting in, and how c4 has been almost chopped several times now. So if SPF is scum, which wouldn't shock me at all at all, it would be "easy" to just go, ok, well played, and move on. It's a thing that is a factor here, even if it "shouldn't" be.
- SPF have more posts, but she also have many more posts that I very much dislike. There's a bunch of posts around when Vulgard was jailed that I remember really disliking at the time for how much they just seemed like empty (nervous?) phrases that basically ended up saying "Since I'm town, I don't know" (from memory, so don't @ me). She's also had questions that just strikes me as super weird, like "how is this even a problem or how is this not self explanatory"-weird. Like pushing c4 for not self sacrificing. (Ironically, if c4 is town, self sacrificing might've been the better play lolol). We all fucked up too many times now, and somehow, I still hold SPF to such a high standard that I have a hard time forgiving her for it, even though I totally did the same lol. Her insistence that her interaction with Dya should clear her is also something I don't buy. It does prove that SPF probably wasn't outright bussing Dya trying to get cred for it, but there's many more (and better!) ways to interact with a teammate. Why was it not just that? I'm not saying it was, it just doesn't prove that she's town to me. So those are some things at the top of my head that doesn't sit well with me. That said, I also remember KZA and Dya having posts that could point to TMI on SPF as town. It's not as hard as Nut, but it's still there I recalled last night. Her digging and playing the game hard is great. I don't really find it AI though. I know it wouldn't be for me, or slightly wolf indicative if I were to do organised posts in F3 lol.
- c4 does have fewer posts that I dislike. But he's pretty "meh", as Visor pointed out. I don't even have much to say. Reading SPFs interaction analysis, what I see is both good and bad things from c4. The particularly bad that I want to hear c4 talk about is his turnaround on Dya from D1 to D2. It be weird.
- Also like wtf is mafia still such a hard game. Shouldn't it be easy by now? Supposedly I'm a "good" player, but this is still just hard. Why do I have fog in my brain and what meditative practice should I apply to get rid of it?
- That fucking Vul post mentioning potentially the whole scum team in one post, what a troll.
- Visor was right about everything.

And I hope that there is a time that we're all on at the same time.

So what I'm going to do is this:
- ISO c4 myself. I haven't read all his posts.
- ISO SPF myself. I haven't read all her posts.
- ISO Vul looking at word usage. It worked for Dya, it may work here was well.

should i be concerned about the fact that your post of misc thoughts has absolutely nothing to do with the large wall of text that i had just posted (and that you presumably read)?

how are you still regurgitating the same vague points you made from a dayphase or two ago (ie: "SPF had posts from when Vulgard was jailed that I disliked) without appearing to have any new thoughts about the literally 5K+ words that i wrote about this game?? i feel like you're just listing off a bunch of stuff from memory instead of coming up with new insight. most of these thoughts dont give me the impression that you're honestly putting a lot of thought or effort into coming to the correct answer here, and i'm being harsh right now because i need to see that genuine gamesolving effort from you for me to feel more comfortable

also i thought we went over the c4 self-sacrifice stuff yesterday - i was not shading c4 for not self-sacrificing, i was implying that c4 had mindset dissonance for implying that he wanted to die before the f3 but making a move that showed the opposite of that. the issue isn't him self-preserving, the issue is him making a big show about how he shouldn't be alive for the f3 only to willingly vote someone he thought was a villager solely for the sake of self-preservation

we could go into the other points in this post (the dya stuff, for instance) but i honestly have already been over them so many times that i think you just need to carefully read my posts if you're actually a villager

anyway, the short version of all of that is that i think that c4 is the wolf. sparknotes version:

-c4 is compatible with KZA

-c4 declared that vulgard was "always town" at multiple points throughout the game, but he willingly turned on vulgard the moment that sunbae claimed - only to then proceed to hedge on vulgard's alignment entirely and refuse to take a firm stance one way or another, which is oddly disproportionate to how c4 treated vulgard earlier in the game. i suspect that c4 immediately voting vulgard upon seeing sunbae's claim only to backtrack came from a place of TMI.

- vulgard seemed hyperaware of c4's position in the thread and his read on c4 primarily gravitated with thread consensus - vulgard went out of his way to "case" c4 only to hedge on his alignment and go back to townreading him shortly after. vulgard threw a lot of shade on c4 toward the very end of his life, but he made no real effort to get c4 killed when he was alive

-c4 townread/nullread dya early on, and remarked several times that gavial flipping V would make dya a villager. after gavial flipped V, c4's read on dyachei did a dramatic turnaround that seems outright contradictory to his mindset on d1, and it's a switch that i find very difficult to buy as authentic, especially because of how much he "played up" the drama of the interactions between dyachei and himself

-dya's read on c4 shifted almost in lockstep with c4's read shifting on them - they both started AGGRESSIVELY gunning for each other during d2 after primarily protecting one another on d2

-dizzy poked at bronana's read on kza on d1 in a way that i lean on him not being likely to do as a wolf

-dizzy correctly called out dya/vulgard for being teamed extremely early into the game

-dizzy came into d2 wolfreading vulgard/dya, but proceeded to passionately argue for marluxion being a wolf upon seeing marluxion claim w/a guilty on c4. if dizzy's agenda coming into d2 was to hardbus both of his partners, then i'm doubtful that he would shift his focus in such a dramatic way to push for a read that he would know would never pick up steam.

-vulgard townreads dizzy early on in a way that feels more like buddying than TMI

-vulgard was uncharacteristically terse with dizzy when addressing the concern that he and dyachei could be partnered, as though he was attempting to brush it off

-vulgard goes out of his way to defend dizzy from sunbae, an action that would be unnecessary in a vulgard/dizzy W/W world because dizzy was not in any realistic danger at the time that sunbae made his case

-dizzy interrogated dya early on and went out of his way to follow-up on a question they didn't answer

-i'm making a couple of assumptions here, but i think it's villagery that dizzy agreed with me that alison/dya had wolf equity together even though he didn't voice that read at any point during d1 (to my memory). at the time, dizzy had been wolfreading both dya and alison individually of each other, and the fact that his read naturally shifted into: "the two of them might be teamed" without him ever explicitly stating it in the thread is the type of silent internal progression that i feel is villager indicative for dizzy

-dizzy asked vulgard a question about his vote on dyachei at a time when i believe vulgard was trying to subtly shift his stance on dya w/out anyone noticing - it would be fairly bold for dizzy to call out his partner in the way that he did in that circumstance

-dya's treatment of dizzy early on looked reasonably non-partnered

not all of these points are equally strong, but they all point me in the direction of: "dizzy is probably a villager and c4 is probably a wolf". poking at the individual points here is probably a waste of time, because the individual points are not as important as what they holistically point me to

the last few dayphases have been rough for me - i didnt have the mental energy to closely RR the game and analyze spew, but i also didn't have the working memory required for me to properly contextualize the interactions that were being talked about. i mostly just interrogated people in real time and hoped that the POE would naturally sort itself out - it didn't. so, this is my attempt to make myself an obvious villager by writing an unprecedented level of analysis and putting my heart into figuring out who the final wolf is. right now, i think it's c4. i'm not married to that world, but it's the world that i feel has the highest chance of being true

let's see what happens next!

3 flipped wolves, 12 interactions on both sides, and 6 heart-pounding matches! who will come out looking the best? who will take the crown? let’s find out!




C4: https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 68#p797968 - C4 mentions KZA for the first time when he says that KZA’s posting reminds him of the posting he saw from KZA in c4 when he was a villager. he subsequently puts KZA at his 4th tier from the bottom in his list of reads

Dizzy: https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 83#p800083 - dizzy makes his first direct mention of KZA when he tries to summarize and understand the primary points against him. dizzy provides a summary of his perception of the “case” on KZA, and then says he feels that gavial has higher scum equity than KZA (this type of post makes me wish i could see the current votecount when the post was made)

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 85#p800085 - dizzy says not to chop KZA, calling him a “lame chop”

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 75#p800175 - dizzy continues to poke at bronana’s “case” on KZA being flawed, although he does not explicitly wolfread zack for it

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 11#p800211 - dizzy continues to poke at bronana’s case, and asks for other peoples thoughts on the exchange

THE VERDICT:


C4 wrote off KZA as a villager for a mildly questionable reason, and then positioned them in their readslist in a spot where wolves often put their LHF partners (not in the immediate POE, but slightly above it)

Dizzy did not provide his personal read on KZA (beyond suggesting that he should not be chopped on d1), and his interactions regarding KZA are more about Zack’s read than KZA himself. I don’t believe that Dizzy would have reasonably believed that he could have shifted the thread consensus in favor of KZA with the ~hour and a half that was left in the day.

Arguably, both of these interactions can be framed to look “bad”, but I feel that Dizzy comes out of this round looking better than c4.

WINNER: Dyslexicon


Dyslexicon - NO interactions

C4 - NO interactions, but it is worth mentioning that KZA made a post TMI’ing Alison as a villager that was playing off of c4’s initial wolfread on Alison. (https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 23#p798923)

The Verdict: Nope.

WINNER: It’s a draw! I’m including it here for posterity's sake.


https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 42#p797542 - c4 says that Vulgard is always town, in conjunction with his read on Sunbae always being town

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 19#p797619 - c4 and vulgard have a fairly dry exchange about c4’s “godread” on me around this time. the conversation ends somewhat uneventfully on

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 24#p797628, although the two of them have a brief exchange about arete following that

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 22#p797822 - c4 brings attention to the fact that vulgard is wolfreading hally by saying that he needs to “check” what vulgard said about them

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 22#p797824 - c4 reiterates that vulgard is a villager when hally townreads him

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 68#p797968 - vulgard continues to be c4’s strongest townread, in conjunction with sunbae

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 74#p799574 - vulgard questions c4 about his townread on dya. Lol

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 49#p801149 - a couple of other names get added to c4’s strongest townreads, and c4 briefly pings vulgard to explain that he doesn’t understand his read on tangrowth (the conversation does not seem to go anywhere)

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 59#p802759 - c4 responds to vulgard’s “case” on him fairly lukewarmly - he seems unconcerned with vulgard’s read on him and provides a very brief rebuttal
https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 05#p803705 - c4 reiterates his concerns about dyachei when vulgard asks him why he’s pre-flipping dyachei as a wolf. pretty boring interaction, and the exchange on https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 44#p803944 is equally bland.

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 88#p804988 - c4 immediately votes vulgard when sunbae CCs marluxion on d3. c4’s posts prior to this point were predicated on the belief that marluxion’s report was real and that he and marl were still villagers - the fact that c4 immediately shifts his suspicion toward vulgard, a player he had 100% townread up until this point, without knowing whether or not marluxion retracted, is very notable to me

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 10#p806610 - c4 hedges hard on vulgard’s alignment in this post, which is weird considering how confident he was that vulgard was “always” a villager prior to this point. why does c4, who often makes a point of pushing for his strongest reads, make no real attempt to figure out if vulgard is a wolf or not in this scenario? why does he not seem to care?

Dizzy:

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 11#p798211 - dizzy responds to vulgard’s early townlean on him by providing some additional context about his wolfrange and about why he was taking a more laid-back approach on d1

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 58#p799658 - silly banter between the two of them in this post

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 39#p803139 - the accuracy of this post is so astounding that i’m tempted to consider it being TMI. dizzy directly says that he feels that dyachei/vulgard might be teamed, and then calls that he will forget about this read but be proven correct in the future. that exact thing happened, lol

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 36#p803236 - dizzy explains the posts that made him tinfoil a vulgard/dyachei team to sunbae, and pokes at the way that vulgard talked about dya to suggest that they could be teamed

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 39#p803639 - dizzy lists vulgard as a TR that he sponged

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 57#p803657 - dizzy questions vulgard about wanting to kill dya

dizzy has a very interesting series of posts when the marl/sunbae claim shenanigans happen tow ard the beginning of d3. dya enters the day by saying that he’s side-eyeing a vulgard/dya team and believes that it is possible https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 95#p805695

when dizzy learns about marl’s claim, he immediately begins aggressively pushing for a world where marl is a wolf - https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 30#p806330 and https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 34#p806334

dizzy promptly changes his mind when the mechanics get corrected around https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 23#p806423

if dizzy intended to come into d3 bussing both of his partners (vulgard/dya), then why immediately pivot to hardpushing on marl in the very next post? especially when dizzy would have known as a wolf that marl’s claim wasn’t real? dizzy’s trajectory at the beginning of d3 lacks an agenda-based mindset, and i think it’s indicative of him being a villager

The Verdict: c4 townread vulgard incredibly strongly early in the game (in conjunction w/his read on sunbae). c4 had multiple fairly dry exchanged with vulgard about their respective reads. c4 reacted to vulgard's wolfread on him fairly lukewarmly. c4 immediately turns on vulgard and votes him when sunbae claims his report, and then proceeds to hedge and refuse to take a stance on vulgard's alignment past that point

dizzy and vulgard had some fairly casual/vibrant interactions early on, dizzy was suspicious of vulgard being partnered with dya early on (although he continued to TR vulgard), dizzy came into d3 suspicious of vulgard again, but immediately began pushing for a world where vulgard was a villager until swiftly changing his mind when the mechanics got corrected

comparing the two of them side by side, dizzy clearly comes out looking better. i am put off by c4’s hedginess about vulgard’s alignment on d3 (and his quickness to vote vulgard), and all of his interactions with vulgard were fairly dry and non-descript. dizzy’s interactions with vulgard were more colorful by comparison, and the way that dizzy came into d3 preparing to push on vulgard only to be immediately swept into a world where vulgard was a villager strikes me as the progression of an unconfident villager

WINNER: Dizzy


https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 67#p797367 - vulgard implies that i am TMI’ing c4 as a villager by townreading him early on (although he specifically takes more issue with my townread on hally than my townread on c4, which may be telling)

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 08#p797408 - vulgard says that c4 has made no impression on him, and reiterates that i am townreading him too easily

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 43#p797443 - vulgard shades hally for not providing a read on c4

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 26#p797526 - vulgard weasels his way into townreading c4 by pretending to ISO him and saying that he can “see what other people are seeing”

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 16#p798116 - vulgard questions arete about their tr on c4

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 38#p799838 - vulgard puts c4 as a townlean

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 01#p802101 - vulgard pings c4 with a softball question

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 17#p802717 - this is quite the monster of a post. vulgard mostly pokes at c4’s progression on gavial, but his conclusion is significantly less spicy than the rest of the post. vulgard sound
s like he’s about to nail c4 at multiple points, but he ends up concluding “c4’s posts are fine besides that one”, which is a pretty hedgey stance for vulgard to take relative to how harsh his analysis seemed

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 09#p803609 - after all the theatrics about c4 being wolfy, vulgard puts c4 in his villager list with a question mark

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 26#p803626 - vulgard puts c4 in his “town with reservations” list

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 82#p803982 - vulgard says that c4 is a villager but that his “pov makes no sense sometimes”

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 94#p804894 - coming into d3, vulgard asks me if im still shielding c4

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 03#p805703 - vulgard attempts to deescalate the claim situation, notably emphasizing that he did not attempt to soft a red check on c4 at all

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 27#p805727 - vulgard asks me for my “take” on c4, emphasizing that his d2 was abysmal. i think it’s telling that vulgard’s shade toward c4 only really came into fruition once vulgard was virtually an outed wolf

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 02#p805802 - notably,, this is the post where vulgard shifts to calling c4 a wolf and implying that he’s definitely scum

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 17#p805817 - i believe that vulgard was at least partially in anti-spew at this point, and i don’t feel particularly inclined to analyze anything that he’s saying here too hard. it is at least notable that vulgard constantly plays up the dynamic between c4 and myself and implies that a c4 wolf world increases my odds of being a wolf as well (which eventually shifts into vulgard outright saying that me/c4 are W/W)

dizzy -

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 26#p797526 - vulgard hedges on dizzy’s alignment early on and says that dizzy/KZA aren’t W/W

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 31#p798131 - vulgard says that he’s leaning on dizzy being V and goes out of his way to shade arete for their read on dizzy - it’s notable that this post was probably a maneuver to eventually pocket arete, and it’s interesting that dizzy is the player in the center of that

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 75#p798175 - vulgard continues to poke at arete’s read on dizzy

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 81#p798181 - vulgard says that dizzy is 100% a villager in a world where arete is a wolf

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 75#p799375 - vulgard subtly discredits alison’s townread on dizzy by arguing that his behavior re: gavial is NAI

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 15#p799415 - vulgard signal boosts marluxion’s read that dyslexicon/gavial were bussing each other

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 50#p799650 - vulgard says he likes dizzy’s recent posting more than before (which i think is funny, since vulgard townread dizzy confidently out of the gate on d1, and this progression is completely fake)

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 38#p799838 - vulgard townleans dizzy
https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 11#p802111 - vulgard agrees with my point about dizzy being villagery

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 19#p802119 - vulgard agrees with dizzy’s take on KZA’s ISO

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 26#p803626 - puts dizzy on the “village” tier in this post and this post https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 09#p803609

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 65#p803565 - vulgard responds to dizzy’s tinfoil about him and dyachei being partnered - it’s notable that vulgard, who is usually a very long-winded player, is oddly terse with dizzy in this post. he is blunt and to the point and attempts to shoot down the idea without further conversation

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 42#p802942 - i dont think this means anything but im putting it here for posterity

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 82#p803982 - vulgard reacts to sunbae presenting his concerns about dizzy by “agreeing” with his points but still suggesting that dizzy is a villager. as an aside, the way that vulgard shoehorns c4’s name into this post is really awkward

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 02#p805802 - vulgard argues for dizzy being a villager in this post

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 55#p805855 - vulgard reiterates a confident townread on dizzy

THE VERDICT: vulgard's read on c4 mostly shifted with the thread consensus - townreading him when others townread him and shading him when others shaded him. he made a point of making a wallpost accusing c4 of being wolfy, but then hedged on c4's alignment and proceeded to treat him like a villager up until d3 - a point at which he suddenly shifted to c4 Definitely being a wolf

vulgard's read on dizzy was more out of line w/the thread consensus - he townleaned him very early on and used arete's early read on dizzy as a way to attack/gradually pocket arete. he comes around to townreading dizzy with near 100% confidence toward the end of d3

i think the micro is more notable than the macro here - i think that vulgard’s progression on dizzy, in a vacuum, tells me nothing about dizzy’s alignment, but there are some micro moments (like vulgard being weirdly terse with dizzy when dizzy called out a vulgard/dyachei wolfteam, vulgard defending dizzy at times that feel more like TMI than a wolf hard defending their partner) that push me into mildly liking vulgard’s interactions with dizzy
vulgard’s progression on c4 is questionable. he primarily sheeped whatever the thread consensus toward c4 was, and then he became very confident about c4 being a wolf toward the end of his life. notably, vulgard went out of his way to “case”/analyze c4, and pivoted back to townreading him/shielding him for the next couple of phases. it feels like vulgard, in general, was extremely hyperaware of c4’s position in the thread, and constantly played and wifomed around it

i would give an edge to dizzy here as well. this is starting to look like a blowout! let’s see if c4 can recover some points in the next two rounds

WINNER: Dizzy


https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 04#p798204 - dizzy answers an early softball question from dyachei

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 69#p798669 - dizzy pings dyachei to ask what their read on him is (and asks them to expand on their read on alison)

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 93#p798693 - i think this post looks better for dizzy on dyachei’s side than on dizzy’s side, so i’ll reserve comment until i get to that round. that said, i like that dizzy prompts dyachei to answer his question about alison after dyachei didn’t answer it - it shows that dizzy had some level of investment in getting an answer, regardless of his alignment

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 11#p798711 - dizzy agrees with dya’s early point about alison being wolfy

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 80#p798780 - dizzy asks dyachei a cheeky question about who they’re being bussed by - dyachei notably does not respond to it

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 06#p799506 - this is a post i’d like dizzy to clarify a little bit - dizzy says that he didn’t get good feelings about dyachei during his exchange with them, but didn’t dizzy come out of their exchange agreeing with dyachei that alison was wolfy? if you agreed with dya’s read, then surely your impression of dya wasn’t entirely negative, right? what made you get bad vibes from dya at the time?

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 31#p799531 - dizzy reiterates his concern about dya based on hally’s read

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 41#p799541 - i kind of like that dizzy acknowledges the dissonance of agreeing with dya’s read on alison while still finding dya suspicious (although his attitude toward dya is lukewarm at best here)

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 32#p802832 - dizzy agrees that dya’s treatment of gavial/alison deserves further exploration, and remarks that he wants to ISO dya at some point. i hate posts like these but i dont know if i find them inherently wolfy

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 37#p802937 - …..hm. this post could point to dizzy being a villager because it involves a thought process that would be very difficult for a wolf to fake. ask me to expand on this point if i don’t do it myself

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 39#p803139 - dizzy says that dya is null to them in this post

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 39#p803639 - dizzy says that dya is one of their three non-townreads

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 44#p803644 - dizzy votes dyachei in this post. nice!

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 57#p803657 - here’s something interesting - dizzy joined the dyachei wagon when nutella and chloe had voted for dyachei back to back. upon seeing the wagon on dyachei grow significantly, vulgard said that he wanted to join the dyachei wagon. dizzy questions this, and asks him: “why?”. since vulgard was transparently trying to follow the thread momentum of dyachei, im not sure if dizzy would ask his wolf partner this question

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 05#p804205 - dizzy questions why dya does not seem thrilled by the alison wagon

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 32#p810632 - this was at a point where dya was basically doomed, so i’m not very interested in analyzing posts from this stage of the thread, but it is notable that dizzy put a fair amount of effort into ensuring the chop was steered onto dya (even though to my memory, it was still effectively a foregone conclusion)

c4-

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 77#p796677 - c4 answers dya’s early question about his read on me

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 80#p796780 - this is a post that’s been talked about at length already - c4 asks dya if they take criticism of their wolf game personally. i think this post is ultimately NAI

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 27#p797727 - c4 emphasizes that there’s virtually nothing to say about dya

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 68#p797968 - c4 puts dya in the upper null territory in his readslist

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 30#p798830 - c4 calls dya V for thinking that the wolfreads on them are unfair

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 74#p799574 - c4 reiterates that they don’t care about dya on d1

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 15#p799615 - c4 says that gavial flipping V would make dya V as well

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 7#p800157v - c4 says that he doesn’t care about dya “unless seth flips green”. the wording of this post makes it sound like c4 is implying dya would be wolfier if gavial flipped green, but c4 said that gavial flipping green would point to dya being a villager, so is this just a very sloppy way for c4 to reiterate that he would townread dya if gavial flipped green?

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 77#p800177 - c4 questions dya about their townread on amy

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 49#p801149 - this is weird. this shift is weird. c4 has spent all game up until this point emphasizing that he doesn’t care about dya and that gavial flipping green would make dya a villager, but upon seeing gavial flip green, c4 puts dya at the BOTTOM of his readslist, and starts fairly aggressively pushing for them. why did c4 suddenly decide that gavial flipping green pointed to dya being a wolf when he previously thought the opposite? why is he suddenly seeing what he was unable to see on d1?

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 01#p801601 - c4 has an exchange with dya about his scumread on them. i will say that this is one of the c4 posts that i like the most

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 59#p802759 - c4 reiterates that dya is a wolf in this post

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 96#p803396 - c4 continues pushing on dya

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 03#p804103 - c4 shows his support for a wagon on dya

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 12#p804212 - dya/c4 have another interaction where c4 confidently declares that dya is a wolf

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 67#p804867 - votes dya instantly on d3, says that if he’s a wolf then he’s at least bussing

THE VERDICT:
dizzy asks dyachei some fairly pointed questions early on. dizzy agrees with dya that alison is wolfy, but still shows some mild reservation about dya. dizzy declares that dya is one of the few people they don't townread on d2 and votes for them shortly after

c4 village reads dya early on, and then puts them in upper null territory. c4 reiterates multiple times that they don't care about dya's alignment. c4 says that gavial flipping V would make dya V, and then proceeds to hard tunnel dya upon seeing gavial's V flip - confidently tunneling them and pushing on them in spite of having very little to say about them on d1. c4 has some mildly good looking interactions with dya in the middle of all of this

i really want c4 to get a win at this point, lol, but my hesitations about some of the early stuff he said/thought about dya means that dizzy comes out of this round looking a little better than c4, once again. i don’t actually think that dizzy’s interactions with dya are all that alignment indicative, but i don’t take specific issue with his progression (and there is actually a post or two i really like), whereas i find c4’s shift on dyachei a little contradictory and difficult to wrap my head around

WINNER: Dizzy


C4 -

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 82#p796682 - dya interrogates c4 about his read on me

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 50#p797550 - dya justifies their townread on amy to c4

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 02#p797802 - dya says that c4 is acting differently from CoV (with the implication that this makes c4 villagery)

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 54#p797854 - dya encourages sunbae to ISO c4 in CoV and compare their games

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 24#p798024 - dya shades c4 for ignoring their posts

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 25#p799525 - dya puts c4 as a village lean (SIDENOTE: if c4 is a villager, this means that every single read in this list is a read on a villager)

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 37#p800137 - brief exchange in this post. fairly softball

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 65#p800165 - dya puts c4 as a villa lean again

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 86#p801486 - dya has a fairly aggressive interaction with c4 around this post, and seems perturbed by his logic

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 54#p801554 - interestingly, this exchange does not seem to change dya’s read on c4 at all, since they proceed to reiterate that c4 is probably V

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 52#p802652 - reiterates their V read on c4 to sunbae

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 95#p803295 - per sunbae’s request, dya ISOs c4 and pokes at his progression on me

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 77#p803377 - another brief exchange here and here https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 00#p803400

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 16#p803416 - dya reiterates that they are having “second thoughts” about c4

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 65#p803965 - dya puts c4 second to bottom from their list of reads

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 77#p804177 - dya asks why im so confident that c4 is a villager

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 96#p804196 - dya interrogates c4 for a couple of posts

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 50#p805250 - reiterates that c4 is wolfy

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 59#p807059 - more shade on c4

dizzy:

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 65#p798165 - dya asks dizzy a short question

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 84#p798684 - dya townreads dizzy quite a bit when dizzy asks for their read on him. notably, dya doesn’t answer dizzy’s question about alison here, and only does so when prompted again by dizzy on https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 02#p798702

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 65#p800165 - dya puts dizzy in the “dont know what to do with” tier

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 04#p804204 - dya answers one of dizzy’s questions about the gamestate feeling stagnant

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 65#p803965 - dya puts dizzy 4th from the bottom of their readslist

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 79#p806379 - this is an interaction in this game

https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 22#p808022 - dya presents a reason for why dizzy/vulgard probably arent teamed. the reasoning in this post is just outright incorrect - dizzy had pushed fairly aggressively for marl to be chopped over vulgard, and i wonder if dya would misremember the stuff that their own partner did to such a significant extent. sloppy read? maybe, but i find it notable that dya starts lolcatting after this exchange

THE VERDICT: dya interrogated c4 early on, and then went out of their way to bring attention to the fact that c4 was acting differently from CoV. dya shades c4 but continues to townread him regardless until the middleish of d2, at which point their read on c4 does a fairly significant shift. dya continues being suspicious of c4 until they die.

dya townread dizzy early on but then later put them in the "dont know what to do with tier", dya continued to put dizzy in the lower bottom tier while not really talking to him or referencing him much at all. dya argues that vulgard/dizzy aren't teamed for a reason based on stuff that did not happen in the game

you know what? out of the kindness of my own heart, i’ll give this one to c4. dya’s interactions with dizzy are fairly non-descript and dya put dizzy in a position that’s typical for partners, whereas dya’s interactions with c4 were more passionate and have a lot more moving parts

i dont actually think that this points to c4 being a villager though - i honestly feel like dya might put more effort into trying to distance from dizzy instead of just lazily writing him off as a villager while still keeping him in their POE, and i also feel like the early exchange where dya didn’t respond to dizzy’s question about alison looked kinda good for dizzy

WINNER: c4

The Results:

Dizzy: 4 wins
C4: 1 win
Draws: 1

it should be pretty obvious that im coming into today with a lean on c4 being a wolf, but i'm re-reading all of the relevant stuff with a totally open mind and going where my brain leads me

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Jun 14, 2021 6:08 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Mon Jun 14, 2021 6:07 pmwhy do you wanna vote me?

Because I think it's most likely you. I could write more words, but it would be a mess

if you are on day 8 of a mafia game in a f3 and you cant write words about why you want to vote the main person that you FOS, then it means that your solving process has gone wrong somewhere. i'm town, and my sole focus right now is getting a solid, confident answer about who the final wolf is - i can only do that by re-reading the game, and i suggest that you do the same