The Syndicate

a world where i am a wolf and trying to solo endgame after bussing both of my partners would play out very differently from this game, ftr. i don't bus purposelessly

sucks that kate is going to most likely die and leave a really bad legacy on me but i guess that is how it goes sometimes

Kate wrote: ↑Tue May 09, 2023 3:40 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue May 09, 2023 2:27 pm just to clarify, the strategy that i'm using to win the game is one that i borrowed from jaggedjimmyjay. you take the number of eliminations left in the game and then subtract one (assuming that you will be a miselimination yourself), to create a POE that you are confident about winning the game

so my goal is simply to find 3 names that i am confident need to contain the final mafia and then force the rest of the game to sheep that solve if i ever die. given the amount of people in this game that feel obviously town, this is a very doable task

Ok. But this doesn't make my posts or feelings about you wrong. So, if I don't die tonight, I would have 3 people in my poe and myself which makes no sense, bc we'd win as soon as we lynch the one wolf who obviously isn't me. So I'm not grasping why you're putting yourself in there unless you are acquiescing that youre play is wolfy.

.....because that's how the strategy works? you put yourself in the POE because you still have a guaranteed win even if something goes wrong and you get miseliminated

don't really know how else to explain the strategy to you. it's not about "accepting your play as wolfy", it's about guaranteeing a win through POE

i think that falcon was very much in anti-spew for almost the entirety of yesterday, for whatever that is worth. i have seen him try to survive as scum before and i have seen him try to be towny as scum before. what happened yesterday was not that

tedxtr wrote: ↑Tue May 09, 2023 2:26 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue May 09, 2023 2:22 pm it ....could be sixstrings. one thing that does make me worried about him is actually just how consensus-y/"agreeable" his reads were when he checked into the thread, even though he is clearly absent. i would expect a villager who is struggling to play or keep up with the game to not have many confident reads, but sixstrings had a readslist that was almost entirely in agreement with the consensus, which could indicate that he was being fed information by this team - this is the exact tell that i used to catch beggbow wayyy back in season 7 game 6

this is a wordier angle of my thoughts also

being lost / scattered and then dropping a list with 7 villas and a wolf

idk, it feels like his posting is perceptive about the thread but the things he's choosing to pick on are the problem. he could hunt, but instead with the thread awareness he had, he chose to focus on explaining why he's not doing much or whatever, instead of helping or hunting, asking questions

just feels like his approach is calculated to me, hope that previous explanation makes some sense

it does make sense, yeah. the fact that strings has essentially been playing in a "perfect" way in spite of seeming to be totally lost/confused about what's going on is the main reason i cant comfortably lift him from my POE

just to clarify, the strategy that i'm using to win the game is one that i borrowed from jaggedjimmyjay. you take the number of eliminations left in the game and then subtract one (assuming that you will be a miselimination yourself), to create a POE that you are confident about winning the game

so my goal is simply to find 3 names that i am confident need to contain the final mafia and then force the rest of the game to sheep that solve if i ever die. given the amount of people in this game that feel obviously town, this is a very doable task

Kate wrote: ↑Tue May 09, 2023 2:11 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue May 09, 2023 2:08 pm

Kate wrote: ↑Tue May 09, 2023 2:01 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue May 09, 2023 1:31 pm i think that you are falling into the trap of scumreading me for playstyle related reasons that have nothing to do with my alignment instead of looking more broadly at how i have played. you are far from the first player who has done that and i'm sure you will not be the last

for future reference, the best way to get a read on me is to ask questions like: "what angles is SPF pushing?" or "does SPF have a clear agenda?" and not: "does SPF do silly things like self-vote?"

Thanks for the lesson

this seems really passive aggressive but i'm not trying to be sassy with you, just explaining that the stuff you're using to figure out my alignment is not actually going to help you with reading me

I don't take any of this shit seriously or personally. Just trying to have a little fun, I promise. Outside the thread it's nothing but love

i'm glad, just wanted to make sure cause i can get heated sometimes too and i don't like tilting ppl lol

Kate wrote: ↑Tue May 09, 2023 2:03 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue May 09, 2023 1:29 pm

Kate wrote: ↑Tue May 09, 2023 1:25 pm I mean, you're the one that said this solve was easy.

i do think the game is easy

So then who is the 3rd wolf?

as for the final wolf, i think that you and lemonfairy are both clear. i don't think that you would deathtunnel falcon like that if you were a wolf with him and i also think the conviction behind your reads (and the way you have consistently shut down eliminations on players that would be easy to push) is real

i think that lemonfairy is probably clear too because her reaction to both seanzie and falcon dying indicates a lack of TMI - i think it would be tough for a wolf to fake that genuine sense of panic about having her vote parked on seanzie and believing he was going to flip town, and it would be a really suave move for her to pull ooff if she's wolfing

i lean on neon being clear as well, primarily because the conviction behind the way that she defended falcon felt very real to me and it is identical to the progressions i have seen her have in the last two games that i played with her where she was town. i do have some paranoia about her replicating her town meta and just playing a strong wolfgame but i do think she's more likely town than not

leaning on ted being clear as well but this is pending some further VCA - the way that falcon and ted pushed on each other throughout d2 is a weird angle for two wolves to take after a partner has already died, and i think that even in a world where the plan was to set up one of falcon/ted to go deep and endgame, it would have played out differently/more theatrically. i also think the way ted has gravitated back and forth with his read on psv is genuine

it ....could be sixstrings. one thing that does make me worried about him is actually just how consensus-y/"agreeable" his reads were when he checked into the thread, even though he is clearly absent. i would expect a villager who is struggling to play or keep up with the game to not have many confident reads, but sixstrings had a readslist that was almost entirely in agreement with the consensus, which could indicate that he was being fed information by this team - this is the exact tell that i used to catch beggbow wayyy back in season 7 game 6

but on a surface level, i agree that his vote on falcon looks good

as for sig, i don't know - i really liked the depth of thought in his posting when he was around and the only reason i have paranoia about him is probably just the fact that he hasn't been around very much. he could be a wolf in theory but it doesn't really feel right to me

i feel roughly the same about dennis - he ~could~ be mafia but it doesn't feel right. he feels a lot townier than the wolfgame i played with him at the beginning of the year. the timing of his push on both seanzie and falcon would be weird for dennis to do as W, cause i dont think he's the type of scum player to try to solo endgame by himself. i'm actually leaning on clearing him now that i'm writing this out, because my paranoia against him isn't totally justified

i have thoughts about pyx/psv but i don't have time to write them out right now. in short, i lean town on pxy and if there's one townread that i was misclearing on d1, it might be specifically just psv

so my game winning POE rn would look like exactly psv, pxy, sixstrings, and myself. if i had to narrow it down even further, i'd probably vote psv right now based solely on gut

Kate wrote: ↑Tue May 09, 2023 2:07 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Mon May 08, 2023 12:25 pm

Kate wrote: ↑Mon May 08, 2023 9:46 am

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sun May 07, 2023 6:31 pm for transparency my current POE is falcon, sixstrings, sig, and ted

i think if we live in an easy world, the remaining wolves are in that pool

in a harder world, there's proly one wolf in that pool and one wolf outside of it, but i'm struggling to see who that would be. i think kate and lemonfairy are both hard town. i've gotten quite a few townpings from both PSV and pxy to the extent that i'm not comfortable having them in my POE

i've gotten townpings from both neon/dennis as well but i suppose i feel the less strongly about them than my other townreads, so if i'm misclearing somewhere then my gut tells me it's proly in those two names

May I ask why you aren't voting falcon? Do you feel certain that it's ted?

because i have been using my vote today primarily to add pressure, and i feel that falcon already has more than enough pressure right now. i do not feel certain that it's ted, and i would probably rather resolve the other names in my POE right now (ie: falcon/sig/sixstrings) before i resolve him

So your vote's for pressure or for fun? Because this post jumped off the page at me yesterday. Especially with you and falcon's timing.

....it's also both. i used my vote throughout most of d1 and d2 to add pressure and do wagon science but i also am well-known for self voting or making meme votes when i feel like it's not one or the other

Kate wrote: ↑Tue May 09, 2023 2:01 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue May 09, 2023 1:31 pm i think that you are falling into the trap of scumreading me for playstyle related reasons that have nothing to do with my alignment instead of looking more broadly at how i have played. you are far from the first player who has done that and i'm sure you will not be the last

for future reference, the best way to get a read on me is to ask questions like: "what angles is SPF pushing?" or "does SPF have a clear agenda?" and not: "does SPF do silly things like self-vote?"

Thanks for the lesson

this seems really passive aggressive but i'm not trying to be sassy with you, just explaining that the stuff you're using to figure out my alignment is not actually going to help you with reading me

Kate wrote: ↑Tue May 09, 2023 2:00 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue May 09, 2023 1:29 pm

Kate wrote: ↑Tue May 09, 2023 1:24 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue May 09, 2023 1:12 pm if you think that me self voting is alignment indicative then you have much to learn about SPF lol

So I'm wrong?

it would be harder to find a game where i have not self-voted as either alignment than it would to be to find a gamed where i haven't self-voted, so yes

Yes, I'm wrong that self voting indicates y9ure wolf or that youre a wolf?

both!

mb

fwiw dennis did rand wolf a few months ago in this game: viewtopic.php?t=2458. i was a wolf with him

the differences in meta between this game vs that game is one of the stronger arguments i have for him being town right now

i think that you are falling into the trap of scumreading me for playstyle related reasons that have nothing to do with my alignment instead of looking more broadly at how i have played. you are far from the first player who has done that and i'm sure you will not be the last

for future reference, the best way to get a read on me is to ask questions like: "what angles is SPF pushing?" or "does SPF have a clear agenda?" and not: "does SPF do silly things like self-vote?"

Kate wrote: ↑Tue May 09, 2023 1:25 pm I mean, you're the one that said this solve was easy.

i do think the game is easy

Kate wrote: ↑Tue May 09, 2023 1:24 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue May 09, 2023 1:12 pm if you think that me self voting is alignment indicative then you have much to learn about SPF lol

So I'm wrong?

it would be harder to find a game where i have not self-voted as either alignment than it would to be to find a gamed where i haven't self-voted, so yes

if you think that me self voting is alignment indicative then you have much to learn about SPF lol

Kate wrote: ↑Tue May 09, 2023 1:01 pm We have civ cleared so many people, I think the only people it could be are spf or pyxxy.

Spf pinged the heck out of me yesterday. She put herself in her own poe and then voted herself when she believed there was a 60% chance falcon was bad.

can you explain what you believe the scum motivation in me choosing to self-vote 30 seconds before the day ended was? falcon was guaranteed to die, so my vote did not make a difference. it was a joke

Kate wrote: ↑Tue May 09, 2023 12:25 pm Why did you put yourself in your own POE?

because we have 4 eliminations left, and creating a perfect POE of 4 names that contains a miselimination on myself as a contingency is how you get a guaranteed win. this is a strategy that i use in almost every game and it's not hard to understand

if the falcon wagon was clean and the seanzie wagon was not, it means exactly lemonfairy or neon is the final mafia

and i really dont think it's either of them, especially lemon

Kate wrote: ↑Tue May 09, 2023 8:12 am I believe the falcon wagon was clean, but the seanzie wagon was not.

why's that?

pyxxy wrote: ↑Mon May 08, 2023 5:14 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Mon May 08, 2023 5:13 pm i feel like pyxxy saying he should be below sig is towny

it's too easy folks

ok i take it back lol

i feel like pyxxy saying he should be below sig is towny

monopoly is obviously the correct answer

Lemonfairy wrote: ↑Mon May 08, 2023 5:04 pm

Spoiler: show

light mode warning

i think u should be eliminated next for using light mode

Kate wrote: ↑Mon May 08, 2023 5:03 pm Oh thank God. I read the last line and thought six string was lynched.

Spf you made me so frigging nervous.

i tend to get nervous around EODs sorry lol

game is probably easily winnable with a POE of like ....psv/pyx/dennis/myself. i'll do some analysis to make sure im comfortable clearing everyone else

neon is proly clear from that too

ted is clear from that imo

this is the easiest game in the world

lmao

the silence is deafening

i still think he should probably die today anyway

tedxtr wrote: ↑Mon May 08, 2023 4:52 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Mon May 08, 2023 4:51 pm i think falcon has a roughly 60% chance of being mafia

that's a lot more than rand

but a lot lower than i would like it to be

slightly better than a coinflip at least

i think falcon has a roughly 60% chance of being mafia

Kate wrote: ↑Mon May 08, 2023 4:48 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Mon May 08, 2023 4:46 pm right, your post made it sound like you were 100% confident he was flipping mafia and that his motivations would be obvious

if he flips mafia then my belief is that he has been in anti-spew at least for the last 24 hours or so, because i dont believe that he would genuinely think he could get you eliminated

and if he's town then the game becomes more interesting again

i guess we'll see

No lol. And youre making me nervous

likewise lol

right, your post made it sound like you were 100% confident he was flipping mafia and that his motivations would be obvious

if he flips mafia then my belief is that he has been in anti-spew at least for the last 24 hours or so, because i dont believe that he would genuinely think he could get you eliminated

and if he's town then the game becomes more interesting again

i guess we'll see

i wish i had your confidence, lol

i don't read any of falcon's posts today as coming from a player who has a real investment in saving himself, regardless of his alignment

well even in a world where falcon is mafia, there's no way he could believe that he could genuinely get you eliminated, right? if his intention is to try to pull the wagon off himself, why not vote one of the existing wagons instead of randomly pushing on a player that is a consensus townread?

my perception is that if falcon is a wolf then he has been in anti-spew and his team has given up on trying to save him

Kate wrote: ↑Mon May 08, 2023 4:25 pm

Neon wrote: ↑Mon May 08, 2023 4:24 pm Also like...lolz to a stagnant wagon being massively in the lead for like 90% of the day lol

The wolves have already been in here trying to move it.

who has done that? my perception is that there has been no serious counter to the current wagon

i should play on this site more often tbh

if falcon is mafia then then is proly the easiest game ive played in the last 6 months

Kate wrote: ↑Mon May 08, 2023 3:08 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Mon May 08, 2023 2:33 pm do u think im mafia kate?

Well, youre in my poe.

the way you were talking around me implied to me that you thought i was scum but that you weren't saying it for some reason, and i like it when people are direct about their thoughts

i don't mind though, tinfoil makes me stronger

do u think im mafia kate?

maybe it's not sig lol

@Kate - who do u think falcon's partner would be?