The Syndicate

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Sep 10, 2020 8:12 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Thu Sep 10, 2020 8:09 pm i have a similar concern about oddmerta if herm flips town. oddmerta has claimed that herm is "lock town" town from his POV, because he got notified when herm investigated his album. this is wrong on multiple levels:

1. why does oddmerta consider herm locktown when getting informed of an investigation by herm is non-alignment indicative?

2. if oddmerta does consider herm locktown, why is he not fighting in the slightest to change the votes? why has he lazily let the herm chop happen?
Can we like actually test this Herm claim.

Herm reckons that he's tracked x, y, z albums and townies get notified when that happens.

Alison says that she didn't get notified when he did that.

Oddmerta is the only one who has claimed to have been notified?

He hasn't scanned my album yet so I can't verify it. Does anyone else have songs from the records he's scanned and has not been notified? Can it be this simple?

herm amended his claim earlier today to say that he only notifies ~one~ towny when he investigates the album they are on, which is a big part of the reason i fos him

i have a similar concern about oddmerta if herm flips town. oddmerta has claimed that herm is "lock town" town from his POV, because he got notified when herm investigated his album. this is wrong on multiple levels:

1. why does oddmerta consider herm locktown when getting informed of an investigation by herm is non-alignment indicative?

2. if oddmerta does consider herm locktown, why is he not fighting in the slightest to change the votes? why has he lazily let the herm chop happen?

here's the plan, folks:

use ur powers on the mafia

Alison wrote: ↑Thu Sep 10, 2020 5:37 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Thu Sep 10, 2020 1:41 pm okay, im done trying to figure out this game mechanically. i dont care about mechanics anymore.

if im looking at this game purely through a scumhunting lens, then herm is scummy, and he has scum equity with all of the flipped wolves
I also don't care about mechanics which is why I'm less engaged but I still try to participate a bit because I enjoy playing optimally more than I enjoy not participating in mechanics clown fiestas. My vote is on Herm atm.

yeah i want to play optimally but i also found this game a lot more engaging when mechanics weren't involved at all. for the sake of my own ability to get good reads im going to stop focusing/caring about the mechanical aspect

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Thu Sep 10, 2020 5:34 pm reasons why im voting herm:

-he got tracked to a night kill, and i believe that the report is real. there is a small possibility that the reason he got tracked to the nightkill is because he visited that player when he "informed" them, but it's a pretty sketchy explanation

-he changed crucial information about his claim after several real life days and 50+ pages, by going from saying multiple times that he would notify everyone on the album he checked to saying that he would only notify one person on the album he checked

-he has scum equity with all of the flipped wolves

i have seen the sentiment of: "yeet herm and blame SPF if it's wrong", and while this is selfish of me, i don't want to take accountability if herm is town. i am not confident that he is mafia - but im voting him because there are more factors that point to him being mafia than not

and realistically, im going to end up voting wilgy tomorrow regardless of herm's flip

ps: i realized that i've been using the word "lynch" a lot in this game, and that's because it's extremely common vernacular on my home site. i assume that this site isn't okay with that type of language, and i will do my best to stop using it! apologies in advance for slipping up

reasons why im voting herm:

-he got tracked to a night kill, and i believe that the report is real. there is a small possibility that the reason he got tracked to the nightkill is because he visited that player when he "informed" them, but it's a pretty sketchy explanation

-he changed crucial information about his claim after several real life days and 50+ pages, by going from saying multiple times that he would notify everyone on the album he checked to saying that he would only notify one person on the album he checked

-he has scum equity with all of the flipped wolves

i have seen the sentiment of: "yeet herm and blame SPF if it's wrong", and while this is selfish of me, i don't want to take accountability if herm is town. i am not confident that he is mafia - but im voting him because there are more factors that point to him being mafia than not

and realistically, im going to end up voting wilgy tomorrow regardless of herm's flip

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Thu Sep 10, 2020 1:41 pm
Alison wrote: ↑Thu Sep 10, 2020 11:02 am
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed Sep 09, 2020 11:25 pm
tutuu wrote: ↑Wed Sep 09, 2020 10:26 pm Investigative role visiting TSP on N3 as claimed by Wilgy is mindboggling to me

If he (Wilgy) is town, then ... Herm is somehow town too? Cuz Mafia Rolecop visit TSP, maf Roleblocker visit me, and Herm could be neither cuz Dya tracked him only to MR

So unless im missing something if Wilgy is town then Herm is town
i can think of a few possibilities:

-there is a mechanic that only allowed dya to see who herm killed, but not who herm visited. herm's rolecop/roleblocker ability could be invisible to visits

-wilgy is mafia with herm who claimed that report to try to absolve herm

-wilgy is 3p and made up the report about herm, who is mafia

-herm is 3p, which would explain why dya only has him visiting one person

but generally yes, if wilgy is town, it makes it more likely that herm is town as well

im struggling w/my read on herm right now because of oddmerta's claim. if oddmerta really is claiming that he got notified when herm visited his album, then that is big news - but im not sure if it's what odd is actually impyling
it's not actually big news. getting notified when someone visits your album is non-alignment indicative.
okay, im done trying to figure out this game mechanically. i dont care about mechanics anymore.

if im looking at this game purely through a scumhunting lens, then herm is scummy, and he has scum equity with all of the flipped wolves

addendum: if getting notified when someone visits your album is non-alignment indicative, then why is oddmerta claiming that herm is lock town from his point of view???????

Alison wrote: ↑Thu Sep 10, 2020 11:02 am
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed Sep 09, 2020 11:25 pm
tutuu wrote: ↑Wed Sep 09, 2020 10:26 pm Investigative role visiting TSP on N3 as claimed by Wilgy is mindboggling to me

If he (Wilgy) is town, then ... Herm is somehow town too? Cuz Mafia Rolecop visit TSP, maf Roleblocker visit me, and Herm could be neither cuz Dya tracked him only to MR

So unless im missing something if Wilgy is town then Herm is town
i can think of a few possibilities:

-there is a mechanic that only allowed dya to see who herm killed, but not who herm visited. herm's rolecop/roleblocker ability could be invisible to visits

-wilgy is mafia with herm who claimed that report to try to absolve herm

-wilgy is 3p and made up the report about herm, who is mafia

-herm is 3p, which would explain why dya only has him visiting one person

but generally yes, if wilgy is town, it makes it more likely that herm is town as well

im struggling w/my read on herm right now because of oddmerta's claim. if oddmerta really is claiming that he got notified when herm visited his album, then that is big news - but im not sure if it's what odd is actually impyling
it's not actually big news. getting notified when someone visits your album is non-alignment indicative.

okay, im done trying to figure out this game mechanically. i dont care about mechanics anymore.

if im looking at this game purely through a scumhunting lens, then herm is scummy, and he has scum equity with all of the flipped wolves

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Sep 10, 2020 3:30 am But you said it

and now i dont, so it shouldnt impact your reads in general

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Sep 10, 2020 1:30 am But in that world you are mafia for saying Herm was 100% mafia lol

i do not stand by that

is there a single world where herm and dya could both be town?

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Sep 09, 2020 11:28 pm There's no way Herm's role visits.

Has ANYONE gotten this notification?

oddmerta softed that he got a notification from one of herm's visits. that is the single thing keeping me from being confident

mechanics give me a headache. i want to go back to the olden days when all we had to do to find mafia was scumhunt

actually do we even know for sure if the people who visited tsp & tutuu are mafia? could it have been 3rd party as well?

tutuu wrote: ↑Wed Sep 09, 2020 10:26 pm Investigative role visiting TSP on N3 as claimed by Wilgy is mindboggling to me

If he (Wilgy) is town, then ... Herm is somehow town too? Cuz Mafia Rolecop visit TSP, maf Roleblocker visit me, and Herm could be neither cuz Dya tracked him only to MR

So unless im missing something if Wilgy is town then Herm is town

i can think of a few possibilities:

-there is a mechanic that only allowed dya to see who herm killed, but not who herm visited. herm's rolecop/roleblocker ability could be invisible to visits

-wilgy is mafia with herm who claimed that report to try to absolve herm

-wilgy is 3p and made up the report about herm, who is mafia

-herm is 3p, which would explain why dya only has him visiting one person

but generally yes, if wilgy is town, it makes it more likely that herm is town as well

im struggling w/my read on herm right now because of oddmerta's claim. if oddmerta really is claiming that he got notified when herm visited his album, then that is big news - but im not sure if it's what odd is actually impyling

Long Con wrote: ↑Wed Sep 09, 2020 6:30 pm

this has been my mood over the last few pages

Herm wrote: ↑Tue Sep 08, 2020 10:35 pm If there's town on the album, they get notified of my search.

I didn't know I visited them as well.

e___e

MacDougall wrote: ↑Wed Sep 09, 2020 5:48 pm He did three times actually.

what is this in reference to?

herm why did you take over 50 pages to clarify some extremely basic information about your role? did you misread your role pm????????

oddmerta implying that he got notified of herm's investigation is the only thing keeping me from being confident about herm being maf

Long Con wrote: ↑Wed Sep 09, 2020 5:21 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed Sep 09, 2020 4:48 pm i simply dont believe that herm claimed well over 50 pages ago with the specific claim that he would notify everyone on the album that he investigated, and then realized that he misread his role PM 50 pages later and changed his claim at a point when it would be beneficial for him to do as scum. it's too coincidental and i have trouble believing herm would misunderstand his own role so badly

oddmerta sticking his neck out for herm does admittedly make me less sure
You said you have 100% evidence Herm is scum. What's the current stance on that front?

like i said, forget that i said anything about that.

i am not 100% confident that herm is scum, but i do scumread him for changing his claim 50 pages later

i simply dont believe that herm claimed well over 50 pages ago with the specific claim that he would notify everyone on the album that he investigated, and then realized that he misread his role PM 50 pages later and changed his claim at a point when it would be beneficial for him to do as scum. it's too coincidental and i have trouble believing herm would misunderstand his own role so badly

oddmerta sticking his neck out for herm does admittedly make me less sure

dyachei wrote: ↑Wed Sep 09, 2020 2:05 pm @staypositivefriend can you clarify at all what your info is?

no, i can not. forget that i said it

Herm wrote: ↑Wed Sep 09, 2020 12:44 pm Clarification:

I ONLY NOTIFY A RANDOM PERSON FROM THE ALBUM.

I DO NOT NOTIFY EVERYONE FROM THE ALBUM.

lmao it took you over 100 pages to clarify this?

yeah E was tough but i feel good about the first 3. im aiming for at least 3/5

tutuu wrote: ↑Wed Sep 09, 2020 3:50 am But i will only out it if someone guesses 5/5

tutuu wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 10:51 pm mafia is all about mindreading ppl right friends

so here is a mindreading exercise

i am thinking of 1 person from this game for each 1 of these songs

song A:

song B:

song C:

song D:

song E:

if u guess all 5 ppl im thinking of u are the greatest mafia player that has ever existed

hint: A isn't samusamu

song a: alison

song b: mac

song c: me

song D: poison

song E: dyslexicon

gg

tutuu wrote: ↑Wed Sep 09, 2020 3:50 am But i will only out it if someone guesses 5/5

tutuu wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 10:51 pm mafia is all about mindreading ppl right friends

so here is a mindreading exercise

i am thinking of 1 person from this game for each 1 of these songs

song A:

song B:

song C:

song D:

song E:

if u guess all 5 ppl im thinking of u are the greatest mafia player that has ever existed

hint: A isn't samusamu

are all of the players alive rn?

MacDougall wrote: ↑Wed Sep 09, 2020 1:52 am
Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Sat Sep 05, 2020 4:24 am
Timsup2nothin wrote: ↑Sat Sep 05, 2020 4:21 am So JPIC, if you weren't under orders from Mac who would you be checking tonight?
Not one of the towncore, that is for sure.

Probably whoever is very low in the PoE. One of Dizzy, Long Con or Herm

this line prolly clears dizzy and long con lol

if i use my good old pal occams razor it tells me that herm and dr are the remaining scum and that's it

tutuu wrote: ↑Wed Sep 09, 2020 1:44 am I am extremely shocked to see alison getting jumped on

She was the n1 kill from scum? We know its not mac cuz 1) mac wasnt doctored 2) nanook didnt get an extra vote

And

Me and MR both protected alison?

I guess 3p tinfoil on alison i cant disprove but it still feels unbelievable to me to tinfoil alison, and i tinfoiled lotta stuff this game frands

i'm considering it right now in the name of not blindly commuting myself to townreads that i can't logically justify, and if i'm being honest, there is a case on alison. it's one with some holes, but it exists

holistically speaking i would still consider alison to be town but i would rather explore this avenue now instead of waiting until the f5 to get paranoid

MacDougall wrote: ↑Wed Sep 09, 2020 1:36 am
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed Sep 09, 2020 1:35 am
Alison wrote: ↑Thu Sep 03, 2020 1:58 pm LC is just town

my two votes are going on JPIC and sprit and the two of them are basically racing in the thread to see which of them makes me want to kill them more right now

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Sep 04, 2020 5:32 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Fri Sep 04, 2020 5:28 pm i think tim’s claim is too complicated to be fake? and it seems like it wouldn’t be a scum role? but idk

i lean town on him independently of his claim too
I thought nutella's claim seemed real too. There's a chance Sloonei furnished wolves with fakeclaims (which I guess makes JPIC look better).

If I townread Tim, it's going to be because tutuu/Hally townread him and because he towntelled in one of his posts, not because of his claim or lack of diplomacy.

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Sep 04, 2020 8:52 pm Just a courtesy note to say that I'm shifting my vote to [VOTE: sprityo and nanook] aubergine. Tim has towntelled a bit lately and at any rate I'm convinced it's strictly incorrect to vote outside of Hally's three-person POE today. Arguments have been made for JPIC being town, and the deciding factor was Mac's plan (which I trust since it seems to be backed up by mech information) calling for JPIC to be given one more day to gather information.

Which brings something else to mind. ted, why did you think that Mac had no mech information and was just trying to push his desired reads? I read Mac's posts as being backed by mech information from his role, and so did almost everyone else.
i struggle to understand why "is JPIC scum?" was a question that was even in contention for alison on d2. she knew that JPIC's claim confirmed him as scum, so why did she even give credence to the idea that he could be town?
intrigue

have you read her herm sub ISO? it's glorious

yeah im reading through it now, and it's rough. i still find alison being scum to be an incredibly difficult sell but i see the logic. her fixation on defending & posturing how much she townread herm is uncomfortable in hindsight

Alison wrote: ↑Thu Sep 03, 2020 1:58 pm LC is just town

my two votes are going on JPIC and sprit and the two of them are basically racing in the thread to see which of them makes me want to kill them more right now

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Sep 04, 2020 5:32 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Fri Sep 04, 2020 5:28 pm i think tim’s claim is too complicated to be fake? and it seems like it wouldn’t be a scum role? but idk

i lean town on him independently of his claim too
I thought nutella's claim seemed real too. There's a chance Sloonei furnished wolves with fakeclaims (which I guess makes JPIC look better).

If I townread Tim, it's going to be because tutuu/Hally townread him and because he towntelled in one of his posts, not because of his claim or lack of diplomacy.

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Sep 04, 2020 8:52 pm Just a courtesy note to say that I'm shifting my vote to [VOTE: sprityo and nanook] aubergine. Tim has towntelled a bit lately and at any rate I'm convinced it's strictly incorrect to vote outside of Hally's three-person POE today. Arguments have been made for JPIC being town, and the deciding factor was Mac's plan (which I trust since it seems to be backed up by mech information) calling for JPIC to be given one more day to gather information.

Which brings something else to mind. ted, why did you think that Mac had no mech information and was just trying to push his desired reads? I read Mac's posts as being backed by mech information from his role, and so did almost everyone else.

i struggle to understand why "is JPIC scum?" was a question that was even in contention for alison on d2. she knew that JPIC's claim confirmed him as scum, so why did she even give credence to the idea that he could be town?

MacDougall wrote: ↑Wed Sep 09, 2020 12:57 am tl;dr

Mafia probably can't afford to kill town Alison. If Alison is town this game never gets to lylo either. We have enough days for her to eventually have checks on every living player (plus we have trackers and whatever else). The mafia forger is dead and they probably won't have a godfather. The only way this game ever gets to lylo is if Alison is mafia.

This game is literally over if we play it out this way.

World 1 - Alison is town and the mafia cap her tonight. We have 3 clears. We can't lose this game with 3 clears.
World 2 - Alison is town and the mafia don't kill her because they don't want to clear her clears. She gets another check every single night until they solve her.
World 3 - Alison is mafia. It will become very evident in time if we are in this world.

this is true - if alison is scum then there's zero way that she survives to endgame without accidentally clearing everyone else

Long Con wrote: ↑Wed Sep 09, 2020 12:48 am With an Alison-Herm mafia team though... do the Day 4 reactions from them really line up with that? Talk about laying it on thick.

yeah, i'm not convinced that alison's reaction to herm being confirmed is to act as guilty/upset about not realizing that he was confirmed. i don't know what alison's scum-range is like but that didn't strike me as partner interaction

still wrapping my head around the possibility that one of us (me mac alison tutuu tsp) has to be scum but im probably just going to lynch herm today regardless and see where that leaves us - unless there's a very strong case to be made that lynching outside would be more likely to give us auto

MacDougall wrote: ↑Wed Sep 09, 2020 12:19 am I can only go by what is in front of me, the existence of a bus driver or redirector has to be ignored.

Chew on this for me town.

Master Radishes was shot despite the threat of TSP having protective. - Option 1 mafia rolecopped TSP already and realised he had no protections left. Option 2 mafia just shot through it with a strongman ... but

If they had a strongman why not just shoot Alison?

Alison's protector Tutuu was roleblocked according to her, which is weird enough because she shouldn't know this, but if the mafia really did roleblock her then why go to that trouble if they were always shooting Radishes? All it does is let SPF, Mac and Alison all get their actions off, two of whom they have no idea what we do "theoretically"?

Without shenanigans from elsewhere there has to be mafia between TSP, Tutuu, SPF and Alison based on this imo.

couldn't there also be a world where the 3rd party is the one that forced the kill onto MR and the mafia got roleblocked/stopped for whatever reason?

i do have no clue why tutuu would be roleblocked though, but im not discounting the possibility that the explanation for this boils down to the remaining mafia being checked out of the game and not putting thought into their actions

Long Con wrote: ↑Wed Sep 09, 2020 12:31 am
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed Sep 09, 2020 12:30 am
MacDougall wrote: ↑Wed Sep 09, 2020 12:26 am We have three living green checks from Alison.

She is not a protective.

She is alive day 4.

The only world we lose to is a world in which she is mafia.

Just saying ... We shouldn't discount out of hand infoyeeting her today. I'm a bit wobbly about her alignment right now I'm ngl. It's not like we can't just turbo Herm tomorrow to get back to status quo. Yeeting her and flipping her green today hard confirms three players to every other town. At this point the mafia might not even really be able to justify flipping her for that very reason.

Just saying we should discuss this.
i would only consider doing this if we could guarantee that her yeet would give us autowin, and i don't feel that we're at that point yet

also im probably against it just on the principle that i dont like infolynches
It's not precisely an infolynch when there's a clear conspiracy surrounding it.

perhaps im missing the train of thought in mac's logic that mechanically forces one of the towncore to be mafia. if that is the case i wouldnt consider it an infolynch either

MacDougall wrote: ↑Wed Sep 09, 2020 12:26 am We have three living green checks from Alison.

She is not a protective.

She is alive day 4.

The only world we lose to is a world in which she is mafia.

Just saying ... We shouldn't discount out of hand infoyeeting her today. I'm a bit wobbly about her alignment right now I'm ngl. It's not like we can't just turbo Herm tomorrow to get back to status quo. Yeeting her and flipping her green today hard confirms three players to every other town. At this point the mafia might not even really be able to justify flipping her for that very reason.

Just saying we should discuss this.

i would only consider doing this if we could guarantee that her yeet would give us autowin, and i don't feel that we're at that point yet

also im probably against it just on the principle that i dont like infolynches

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Sep 08, 2020 11:52 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Sep 08, 2020 11:17 pm not that it matters at this point but i also have information that 100% confirms herm being scum, it's not up for debate at this point
This kinda bothers me because you said you can't infoclaim or roleclaim and I know for a fact I can't infoclaim to this degree. Why are you claiming all of a sudden?

yeah i cant comment any further, sorry

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Sep 08, 2020 11:55 pm I think there is a strong chance that the mafia just had their kill blocked by the immense about of protectives and the plan and Herm killed Radishes with his 3p role tbh.

this is entirely possible, but i'd be thrilled if it was the case. getting 3p out of this game more or less guarantees a town win

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Sep 08, 2020 11:21 pm me not realizing that herm was meant to have notified me on the check was one of the worst unforced errors I've seen in a while tbh. what a stupid throw from someone who tries hard to be careful and make the right play

i wouldnt beat yourself up over it too much, youre doing great and we're still gonna win this

not that it matters at this point but i also have information that 100% confirms herm being scum, it's not up for debate at this point

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Sep 08, 2020 11:12 pm No way that mafia is allowed to bus in this situation, so dyachei is confirmed green once Herm flips mafia.

yeah they are 100% not mafia, and i dont think theyre 3p either

just realized that our streak of chopping mafia ended when hally died. really makes u think...

anyway, this is good and bad at the same time

it's good that herm being confirmed has more or less made the next two chops fall into our laps (herm and drwilgly), and at the end of those two chops, we'll likely either be dealing with one more mafia or with one member of the third party

that's an objectively great position to be in, and my only concern is that we'll become complacent over the next 96+ hours - i'm definitely guilty of falling privy to this myself when we're in a "good" situation. we should make a point today of continuing to scumhunt, and especially using the information we've gotten from the chops to make an unbreakable POE

basically, i'm just saying that we shouldn't let ourselves get lazy

i will bet the game on herm being scum. he's not town and he's getting chopped today

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Sep 08, 2020 3:44 pm I feel like my decisions are sort of railroaded at this point. Barring night actions, there's nothing I can do except exe Wilgy tomorrow. All people are talking about is mechanics which is NAI. So I don't feel like I'm contributing much right now and are just in the "night results waiting room".

in addition to being busy IRL the past few days, this is why i haven't been posting as much. the chop for tomorrow is a foregone conclusion and i don't particularly enjoy/feel invested in mechanics. it would help me to do some more analysis of how the day ended but i might hold off until wilgy's chop for that

well damn

Timsup2nothin wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 9:12 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 8:55 pm i'm here for the end of day if anyone wants to discuss anything, but the tim lynch seems like a p foregone conclusion and i feel like im killing time waiting to see his flip
at least you came to see me off...I appreciate it

ive enjoyed playing with u in this game even if things have to end this way

i'm here for the end of day if anyone wants to discuss anything, but the tim lynch seems like a p foregone conclusion and i feel like im killing time waiting to see his flip

hi! i'm pre-occupied today so i won't be posting very much, but luckily, i don't have much else to say that hasn't already been said. tim is the optimal yeet for a number of reasons and i need to see his flip to change/re-evaluate my reads

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