The Syndicate

Everything I posted can be summed up as:
glhf

am prepared to eviscerate wolves if i'm still alive

And to be 100% clear: when I call the above players "PoE", it doesn't mean "dunk straight through these people and the game's locked". It means "look here first for wolfy behavior, as I think the wolves are most likely contained within this pool."

Most important thing is to actively be evaluating in the face of new information, keep the entire game in perspective, and don't look yourself into bad worldviews/gamestates. This is our game to lose. Work together, dunk wolves, etc etc.

in conclusion:

==towncore, re-evaluate at LYLO==
proto
Alison
tutuu
Colin
Macdougall

==sort this==
tedxtr

==tier 2 poe==
Wilgy
Carotte
Nanook

==tier 1 poe==
10k
TSP

==dies today==
Urist

I suspect I'm largely just monologuing to myself and perhaps a lurking Nanook at this point but I'm not super bothered by it. At least it gives me the chance to put some unbridled Brain Barf into the thread before I potentially eat lead overnight.

Dunking Nanook today is somewhat silly, because I think he gets easier to read as the game progresses. Think as a villager he gets more and more willing to actually participate in the sharing of reads and the solving process the deeper into a game he goes; if he's a wolf, I'd probably catch him off a continued caginess and peripheral play.

So, uh, let's not do that. Slot's more easily solved later.

If TSP's a wolf, scumreading Mac and then myself never seems like a winning line - and TSP, if he bussed 112, would probably be looking to FIND a winning line in this situation, not just relying on refuge in audacity that's never going to get him to endgame.

Maybe he's wolves with Urist and the team is just fucked, but I almost think TSP is v just because if he's wolfing he's seriously played himself into a corner, when I think he's a competent player who's more than capable of not doing so.

Certainly don't de-PoE him, he probably should never endgame here, but he's not my preferred vote today. Sorry Mac.

oh shit i forgot to take my meds gg

Also a quick note if Urist flips w:

My "not partnered with Nanook" read isn't ride-or-die levels of confidence. If Urist is a wolf and Nanook winds up in an F3 please throw out preconceptions and consider him like you would anyone else.

Yeah, the more I read Urist's ISO the more comfortable I am with a dunk here.

Urist's early D1 posts about 112 expressed a relative level of comfort with the wagon, when the thread state was still all over the place and there was no clear alternative consensus. When tutuu v Alison really started to take hold, though, Urist got weird about it.

His progression on Alison's bad. He calls tutuu v Alison tvt... and then not 20 minutes later expresses a scumread on Alison, and then votes her about an hour after that. Right after the Alison vote is when he starts asserting that the 112 wagon's stagnancy is indicative of town due to lack of bussing, but as I argued with him previously, that stagnancy was in fact the complete inverse of what he characterized it as - the general thread "yeah she's wolfy" consensus but difficulty getting more than 3 votes on her for most of the day is generally much more indicative that wolves just didn't wanna vote her but also couldn't bring themselves to defend her.

He then spends most of the rest of the day attempting to get a not-112 wagon to coalesce, without actually ever engaging with the content of 112's posts and forming his townread of her solely off the gamestate. It doesn't read as someone legitimately attempting to determine alignment. 100% looks like an agenda to not get 112 killed.

His D2 posting is whatever. Almost inclined to suspect some of it is antispew? The reasserted townread on 10k is certainly interesting. Accusation of Mac reads as a desperate chainsaw. Nothing he's posted today has been villagery and it generally just kinda feels like his WIM's fucked.

Full steam ahead, IMO.

correction: I think Urists posts towards Nanook 100% read as pocketing if Urist flips w.

proofreading is good sometimes

Alison, Colin, Mac, proto, and tutuu should not be re-evaluated until LYLO - I understand that tutuu's inclusion in this pool is going to be somewhat controversial at this stage, but I just... don't think she's ever a wolf here, regardless of how pushing on Alison made her look.

Of the rest of that pool, I think I'm actually most secure in proto being town; the way he approached the 112 slot is just super super pure. They're all villagery, obviously; if I'm being paranoid, Mac dunking 112 has shades of Nanook on KZA in Philosophers, but given the fact that the wolves' entire strategy in that game revolved around Nanook hellbussing, that's not anything that makes me concerned about Mac.

The immediate PoE should be Urist, TSP, and 10k. 10k in particular should never ever ever EVER survive to LYLO, if he doesn't get replaced; policy dunk him the day before if you have to, but that's not an albatross y'all can afford to have around your necks heading into worst-case-scenario F5.

Nanook, Wilgy, and Carotte all have various things going for them. I'd trust Wilgy the most out of this pool, in service to Nutella's TR on TH. Nanook is probably not teamed with Urist, IMO - I think Urists posts towards Nanook 100% read as pocketing if Nanook flips w. Carotte ostensibly has 112 spew but I think goes up in wolf equity off a TSP greenflip, as I think TSP is by far the most likely 112 busser.

tedxtr is the hardest player for me to really sort because he's felt somewhat out of phase with the overall gamestate - in a vacuum, I'm inclined to say that's villagery, but I'm not married to that at all. If this game goes to LYLO I 100% expect him to be there so uhh try to solve him before then I guess lmao.

Vote today should be between Urist and TSP. At the moment, I favor Urist; going to do some backreading to determine if this is still the case. That said, if I DO decide on TSP I won't be swapping unless I know someone else is around to break the tie. [also they could totally be w/w so hopefully this isn't a fruitless exercise]

i woke up at 3 oops

wanna reread some stuff and then I'll legacy

yeah, i was gonna; probably closer to EoD

luckily it's a sunday so i should actually have time to do some backreading/compiling/etc

i will not policy dunk someone for not playing the game

i will not policy dunk someone for not playing the game

i will not policy dunk someone for not playing the game

stay strong, amy. stay strong.

notable is the fact that any potential wolf would only have one partner at large; the "there's no resistance to this push" argument kinda falls flat in that sense. town basically has full thread control unless there's a wolf in alison/mac

tutuu wrote: ↑Sat Aug 15, 2020 1:16 pm amy and alison and dizzy are all my moms i have 3 moms

frankly this household sounds extremely dysfunctional

Alison wrote: ↑Sat Aug 15, 2020 1:16 pm I'm still not sure of Carotte being town either - there was that "112 spew" where she left Carotte out of her reads list but I'm not going to stake the game on it :P

honestly i don't think I've ever seen this tell actually be correct

think it's a thing that people feel like should be true that isn't actually the case

could just be a difference in personal experience tho

trying to figure out how i feel about urist's first reaction being a hard chainsaw onto mac that he only backed down from after mac did

lv1 says it's wolfy

but lv1 says a lot of wrong things

probably needs a reread

tsp can absolutely be mafia here

I'm hesitant to swap off urist without more time to read and consider, though, so that's maybe a discussion for later tonight, after i take care of some Things

also yeah carotte can be v i think my gut just whiffed there

"amy stop sheeping mac" mac stop being right

tutuu's v and i have a dumb read to support it

if tutuu is a wolf then the 112 bus wasn't planned - or at least, tutuu wasn't doing so. we would thus expect that 112's death is actually pretty rough on scumteam morale if that's the case

given that, i think w!tutuu in that slot would struggle to respond with such unbridled enthusiasm last night to my suggestion that she'd be fun to work with. i think there'd be a note of melancholy or self-deprecation there, based entirely off my read of tutuu as a person

plus tutuu beating herself up over her reads is absolutely not out of her v range - philosophers postgame is a good example

i will be townshielding tutuu until lylo, please direct all questions/comments/concerns to macdougall

Alison wrote: ↑Sat Aug 15, 2020 2:31 am for the record the reason is that the plinko board read is that someone's thought process is the opposite of random and nonsensical - it's a little too planned/biased towards trying to push a specific narrative rather than just a natural progression

on the other hand I think it should just be called "artificial progression" or something instead of a weird reference to plinko boards

yeah this is correct

you have newcomb to thank for the turn of phrase. he's fond of using fancy words to make himself feel smart. also this is pot, happy to report the kettle remains black

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Aug 15, 2020 1:52 am

Alison wrote: ↑Sat Aug 15, 2020 1:49 am Also I checked your ISO and you've had a consistent scumread on Urist but you've only ever explained it as having a partner like interaction with 112 (and a one liner about busywork). So pretty natural for me to remember it as you scumreading Urist for being W/W with 112.

Ok. We'll initially I said he had teammate equity. Much later I said he was naked mafia. I found Urist's content generally random and nonsensical. I believe it's called the plinko board read.

this is actually an egregious misapplication of the plinko board read

i'll explain this later maybe

i'm doing that thing again where my brain's like "hmm this person is suspecting me, they must be a wolf because i'm blatantly a villager"

need to parse whether this tsp line is villagery incorrect or wolfy incorrect

self meta bad but

i dislike bussing and certainly wouldn't have bussed 112 on a lark

only would have done so if i thought it gave the scumteam the greatest chance of success

and alison was very very votable yesterday. given how medium i was on the 112 vote at the start of the day, i think w!amy would have found the alison wagon an extremely attractive option, cause alison's a good player and getting her dunked probably has the side effect of pocketing tutuu to boot

so nah tsp, read denied. find some other straws to grasp at

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Aug 14, 2020 9:34 pm The outlying hard world that I hate the idea of is Alison being mafia too. In which case rip.

alison is a lylo world for me, never before

and if i'm still alive at lylo i'm going to be peeved.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Aug 14, 2020 9:36 pm Okay let's talk about TSP

don't think he busses 112 there tbh

that's most of why he's not in my PoE rn

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Aug 14, 2020 9:37 pm

Sorry I’m multitasking

Uh idk what to say, like...it’s a reasonably accurate description that I don’t take offense to and may steal to explain my D1 play in the future

nah you're fine lol i wasn't fishing for a more indepth response or anything

just thought it was funny

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Aug 14, 2020 9:32 pm Sure, fair enough

this is the mafia equivalent of sending a three paragraph text and receiving back "k"

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Aug 14, 2020 9:30 pm Also I think if Tutuu was mafia and putting up this much wim, again it doesn't quite sit right with the production from 112. I think 112 would play well regardless of external factors if she had a fun team.

It feels very much like the town just dominated day 1 to me.

yeah, i can get behind this

feel like i'd have an absolute blast wolfing with tutuu lmao

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Aug 14, 2020 9:25 pm

Amy wrote: ↑Fri Aug 14, 2020 9:19 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Aug 14, 2020 9:16 pm

Amy wrote: ↑Fri Aug 14, 2020 9:13 pm i'm probably gonna poke around for some old 112 games just to confirm mac's meta tbh

but if it holds then yeah we can honestly just go urist=>10k and see what happens

Where does Nanook fall into this? How does Nanook compare to 10k

nanook is always going to be a hard read for me because he plays the early portions of every game basically the same way, which is to say that he doesn't

i think urist is always the wolfiest player in the game atm and i think that, pending 112 metadive, mac's spew read is a pretty bad look for 10k, which would leave nanook the villager out of the 3

it's not at all clearing, though, and i wouldn't be particularly surprised at any combination of 2 wolves and a villager in that pool

I don't think that's fair tbh, I do normally play just not the way you want me to /shrug

eh it's maybe a little unfair. let me rephrase

you play in a very cagey way, especially earlygame. you play your cards close to your chest, you only share reads that you feel confident in and in general it's very difficult to get a bead on what's actually going through your head at any given time. i accept that this probably works for you in the sense of you feel good about your reads and your general level of play, but you ALSO have to admit that for players with more conventional/holistic styles it can make you a very difficult slot to read, given that oftentimes the only real evidence you put into the thread for a while is like. objective empirical evidence. vote patterns, wolfreading X player at Y time, etc etc.

it's a style that's very difficult for me specifically to engage with so you'll have to forgive me for describing it in reductive terms

oh also tutuu was in 112's v list and i absolutely buy that that's just a "toss a TMI townread on a level 1 villagery player" townread

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Aug 14, 2020 9:18 pm

Amy wrote: ↑Fri Aug 14, 2020 9:15 pm nanook's posts about urist today are like. too partnery to be a partner, if that makes sense

if urist flips v, though..........

I would make the same post sub Urist out and put Tutuu in. Which is weird.

Tutuu also voted Alison. Tutuu has been very town at times but also has pinged me a fair bit.

i think if nanook is wolf he's absolutely trying to pocket v!tutuu

tutuu is like. the last person in my PoE that i'd dunk rn. i can't clear her, there are too many factors working against her, but GTH she reads like an incorrect villager more than a wolf

i also dunno if tutuu would pop nutella if she was still trying to push a nutella/alison world... but i guess she came out the gate hard townreading alison today, so maybe that's not actually a valid point

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Aug 14, 2020 9:16 pm

Amy wrote: ↑Fri Aug 14, 2020 9:13 pm i'm probably gonna poke around for some old 112 games just to confirm mac's meta tbh

but if it holds then yeah we can honestly just go urist=>10k and see what happens

Where does Nanook fall into this? How does Nanook compare to 10k

nanook is always going to be a hard read for me because he plays the early portions of every game basically the same way, which is to say that he doesn't

i think urist is always the wolfiest player in the game atm and i think that, pending 112 metadive, mac's spew read is a pretty bad look for 10k, which would leave nanook the villager out of the 3

it's not at all clearing, though, and i wouldn't be particularly surprised at any combination of 2 wolves and a villager in that pool

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Aug 14, 2020 9:14 pm

Amy wrote: ↑Fri Aug 14, 2020 9:13 pm i'm probably gonna poke around for some old 112 games just to confirm mac's meta tbh

but if it holds then yeah we can honestly just go urist=>10k and see what happens

Read the wc from champs last year. It'd be the best 112 mafia meta available imo.

honestly yeah that was the plan

plus that means i get to read evenstar memes again, which is always a good time

nanook's posts about urist today are like. too partnery to be a partner, if that makes sense

if urist flips v, though..........

i'm probably gonna poke around for some old 112 games just to confirm mac's meta tbh

but if it holds then yeah we can honestly just go urist=>10k and see what happens

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Aug 14, 2020 9:06 pm The wife wants to know "why does Skitty have a gun."

i mean, do you wanna be the one that has to try to take it away from her?

tutuu wrote: ↑Fri Aug 14, 2020 9:06 pm

Amy wrote: ↑Fri Aug 14, 2020 9:03 pm

tutuu wrote: ↑Fri Aug 14, 2020 9:02 pm

Amy wrote: ↑Fri Aug 14, 2020 9:02 pm someday i'll play helltaker

it takes 30 minutes to beat!

this is actually an extremely solid pitch

maybe i'll do it over the weekend or smth

prolly not tonight tho

<3 <3 <3 <3 <3 <3 <3 i cant wait to play mtga with u after this game!!!

i hope u like standard cuz if u play historic u'd have to face my mono red every game cuz i dont have anything else for historic ;-;

i need to rebuild some standard decks on arena, probably. my current only standard deck is hilarious... and also terrible, which makes it more hilarious

have spent most of my mtg energies playing commander tbh

np:

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Aug 14, 2020 9:02 pm

112 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 11, 2020 10:14 am Town
tutuu
Amy
Urist
Mac

112 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 11, 2020 10:17 am Carote can be town too

This is not scum reading scum ever imo.

Also 112 spewed Proto town I forgot about that.

is 3 town/1 scum in a townpool something that 112 is inclined towards

i feel like it's the level 1 wolf readslist but idk if 112 would be more likely to just rattle off a bunch of Actual Villagers or smth

tutuu wrote: ↑Fri Aug 14, 2020 9:02 pm

Amy wrote: ↑Fri Aug 14, 2020 9:02 pm someday i'll play helltaker

it takes 30 minutes to beat!

this is actually an extremely solid pitch

maybe i'll do it over the weekend or smth

prolly not tonight tho

someday i'll play helltaker

tutuu wrote: ↑Fri Aug 14, 2020 8:58 pm

Amy wrote: ↑Fri Aug 14, 2020 8:53 pm maybe this will be the game that philosophers should have been

there's not a single mechanic in sight

i'm safe

Spoiler: show

are you now, amy?

maybe this will be the game that philosophers should have been

there's not a single mechanic in sight

i'm safe

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Aug 14, 2020 8:46 pm

Amy wrote: ↑Fri Aug 14, 2020 8:42 pm mm maybe carotte and nanook should swap on my list

i feel like i cleared carotte for bad reasons, maybe

gut says she should be lower

Her push on me, the way she jumped on certain things, felt kinda similar to the push she made on me in SI where she was town there, as well as the push she made on Giraffe in semis. She was town in both games. And on a base level her play is not super scummy. I still have her in my upper POE (and not the top of it either) but I don't have her in my bottom one.

mm

i'll cede to that, then

urist/nanook just feels... very level 0

maybe that's the solve and i'm bad, but it feels like it never pans out that way

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Aug 14, 2020 8:41 pm

Amy wrote: ↑Fri Aug 14, 2020 8:29 pm i also suspect that w!mac kills exactly nutella last night

certainly other wolves can make that kill, but i think mac ALWAYS makes that kill if he's a wolf

I'm sorry what?

let me first clarify that you're one of my top town and this is like. lylo tinfoil

but i got myself to thinking "IF mac is a wolf here, who would he have killed last night"

and i suspect the answer is "whoever is most likely to catch him"

which would, i believe, be nutella

linki: alison, insomnia is tedxtr

mm maybe carotte and nanook should swap on my list

i feel like i cleared carotte for bad reasons, maybe

gut says she should be lower

==towncore==
alison
proto
colin
mac*

==lean town==
tsp
insomnia

==upper poe==
tutuu
wilgy
carotte

==apparently this person is still in this game==
10k

==lower poe==
nanook
urist

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Aug 14, 2020 8:34 pm [VOTE: Urist] aubergine

I don’t feel great about it tho

elaborate?

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Aug 14, 2020 8:29 pm

Amy wrote: ↑Fri Aug 14, 2020 8:25 pm the level 1 reading of wagons is that the alison push was largely to provide a viable alternative to 112

the alternative interpretation is that 112 was bussed and alison was pushed by villagers

these two are not mutually exclusive (see: kza v scirrus in philosophers); however, it's probably worth looking at who the primary sources of momentum on each wagon were

The wagons were close enough that a busser could have found a reason to hop over at some point, which makes me think that the bus was not as all-in as KZA's was (although I severely doubt that the wagon on me was all wolf - if you asked me to hazard I guess I'd say 2 wolves on my wagon and 1 wolf on 112's, or something).

I just think that from the POV of the wolves, one wagon is on their buddy and another is on a reasonably active town player, and this is a good reason to bias towards pushing me. I doubt all of them piled on the same wagon (it's possible but low chance), but I also think they biased towards pushing me rather than pushing 112. The KZA thing had special circumstances too, since the wolves were pursuing a fake clear strategy based on their two dayvig shots from the start, which incentivizes them to bus in-thread harder than in this game.

inclined to agree

based on that i feel pretty good about pushing urist for the time being, pending a reread

i also suspect that w!mac kills exactly nutella last night

certainly other wolves can make that kill, but i think mac ALWAYS makes that kill if he's a wolf