The Syndicate

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jun 08, 2021 8:16 pm I can only imagine my rage if we didn't luck into the Act elimination on dubious reasoning and ended up losing to a win thief.

I have never experienced that before.

arguably gambit demon in GOC was a win thief

Come to think of it if Sloonei hadn't been backup and picked up desperado we would never have gotten there on TSP because we would have thought desperado dies to only town.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Jun 01, 2021 1:24 am
Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jun 01, 2021 1:23 am JJJ and Mac have both stuck their necks out too much and been too loud to be 3P poisoner. They'd draw an NK. Sloonei is confirmed backup. Seanzie seems to have gotten a red check on Owner somehow and I don't see how he'd get that if he was 3P poisoner. Maybe he has a rolecop to go with it or something, idk, but he wouldn't be my first guess.

I'm going to go eat now but I'll marinate on poisoner solves.
It's just Tangy. Murphy's Law is real.

sadge

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Jun 08, 2021 7:02 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Jun 08, 2021 7:00 pm
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Jun 08, 2021 6:59 pm I thought about outing a green on you but I dunno if that would have done it
You were that confident I was mafia?
I was decently sure but also you’re the only one I could trust to cooperate within some bounds.

why not me

I'm a very cooperative person

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Jun 08, 2021 6:57 pm Made our factional kills strong, ninja, janitorised. She had a shot of each iirc.

ouch

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jun 08, 2021 6:55 pm @MartinGG99 you were absolutely a part of this win. You were a suspect for most people literally the whole game and are still standing here. That's not just because of Alison's support.

I think his analysis about Allcrab was 1) really sensible and 2) fucked him over if he was mafia which made him look really townie which made Mac concede.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Jun 08, 2021 6:54 pm
Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jun 08, 2021 6:53 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Jun 08, 2021 6:51 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jun 08, 2021 6:49 pm
Marmot wrote: ↑Tue Jun 08, 2021 6:47 pm "This won't be the last you'll see of me." he stated.
It never is, is it Mac?
Thats probably the cleanest I've been beaten tbh. Maybe I'm washed.
nah you got townread really hard at the start, it was just messy for you mech wise.

remember when you said "I felt safe and then suddenly I am bottom POE"? that wasn't because you slipped or anything, the POE just shrank to the point it could no longer conceivably hold enough misexes for you to win.
Nutella dying over Made was also very painful. She was our most important role imo.

What did she do?

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 08, 2021 6:53 pm Lol, I'm joking. I probably deserve it though with "murdering" Hawk and refusing to believe in 2 healers

It sucks we didn't get a sweep but the hawk thing was just bad luck. They got counterclaimed and were roleblocked on a night there was no kill - that was just a storm of bad coincidences lining up to frame them.

It wasn't like you played bad or were obvious scum or anything, a combination of mech and townie play just made it hard for you to escape the POE

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Jun 08, 2021 6:51 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jun 08, 2021 6:49 pm
Marmot wrote: ↑Tue Jun 08, 2021 6:47 pm "This won't be the last you'll see of me." he stated.
It never is, is it Mac?
Thats probably the cleanest I've been beaten tbh. Maybe I'm washed.

nah you got townread really hard at the start, it was just messy for you mech wise.

remember when you said "I felt safe and then suddenly I am bottom POE"? that wasn't because you slipped or anything, the POE just shrank to the point it could no longer conceivably hold enough misexes for you to win.

Remember when we were like "all the mafia are perc people" and then it turns out 3/5 are syndicate

dvc plz

My proudest read this game is actually that I managed to get there on Martin who had about a million reasons for people to scumread him and keep him out of the POE through nothing but sheer insistence. I had a couple of moments where I felt nervous about being played but I'm glad I held faith in that read and denied scum from being able to use him as a misexe.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Jun 08, 2021 6:41 pm Seanzie and LC were extremely valuable for the town here. LC landing the save on Sloonei n1 was so deflating after losing Nutella.

Dana clutch bodyguard saving Seanzie was also fucking disgusting.

Seanzie was just a pain in my ass personally. In the best way.

Yeah Seanzie had a good read on you and I was wrong about being harsh on him for it. I felt if you were scum you were bussing so hard you would get boxed in by endgame and so we should pluck the LHF first which was why I shielded you for a bit. He had a good nose for you and just went for you straightaway without dragging it out to endgame though.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Jun 08, 2021 6:39 pm
Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jun 08, 2021 6:37 pm Why did you heal Gnome?
I didn't anticipate the poisoner dying. So swapping a poisoner death for a town chop (and adding sus to Jay and Martin) felt like one of my only outs at the time.

You had to know the net was closing in on the poisoner though right? I said as much when I argued why saving Gnome makes no sense from mafia POV.

Why did you heal Gnome?

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Jun 08, 2021 6:31 pm Congrats town. You just towned too hard.

Oh so you are conceding.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Jun 08, 2021 6:14 pm
MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 08, 2021 6:02 pm I think I can only suspect Allcrab if we already flipped a mafia. In that case then MAYBE they're less towny than LoMo.

If we haven't flipped a mafia, then it isn't him.

IIRC he's confirmed investigative due the casual lovers thing + confirming LoMo on d2 (or at least has an investigative ability). It would be quite unlikely for him to have healed Garden Gnome, presuming Garden didn't protect herself. Also presumes poisoner had no limitations.
Mafia watchers are a thing.

Martin's point is that Allcrab is confirmed watcher. So if he's mafia he has to be mafia watcher.

Therefore he can only be mafia with Gnome since otherwise the mafia poison healer is unaccounted for. So Gnome should be resolved first before even thinking of flipping Allcrab

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Jun 08, 2021 5:43 pm I'm going to be irreversibly angry if you tunnel me and I die and then town loses the game because you got played like a fiddle.

Please elaborate on why you chose to explore the possibilities of Sloonei being scum and me being poisoner. I felt both ideas were obviously stupid yesterday and now we have proof neither are true. Elaborate on why you felt they were serious angles we needed to explore.

not a joke read. Town has exed all scum except for hawk, and we are collectively converging on a strong POE that seems very similar. Scum are grumpy and lashing out at the box, town are like "idgaf we're gonna win"

Gnome has been townier than Mac today but has mech against her, Mac has been scummy today for being grumpy and total self defense mode.

I am voting Gnome because mech > reads but hard to see how we don't have auto by going one into the other.

all grumpy people are scum

just give your POE martin. you don't have to explain why you aren't POE-ing yourself lol.

Also I believe we have 3 misexes left so if you think Mac/Martin ends the game then you should have no objection whatsoever to you -> Mac -> Martin.

Garden Gnome wrote: ↑Tue Jun 08, 2021 5:05 pm My order of chop would be Mac/Martin/and, why bother, the game is over.

Where did your suspicion of me go to?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jun 08, 2021 5:01 pm If I had to give an order of chops within my POE, I think it'd be: Gnome --> Mac --> Martin

That is also my chop order, although Martin goes second if Gnome flips scum but the game doesn't end.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jun 08, 2021 4:45 pm It would seem that Alison herself is on board with my rationale. Groovy. I cannot imagine everyone has the same POE though. So there'll be much to discuss. I know Mac for example has voiced some alternative perspectives. This is the day for that.

I am on board with your POE yes.

With faces?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jun 08, 2021 4:43 pm
Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jun 08, 2021 4:41 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jun 08, 2021 4:34 pm Gnome is definitely feeding me the appeal to emotion. It's kind of fun that it's literally embedded in our roles.
More like the shaggy defense tbh.
What's that? Sounds scandalous.

Watch this video to understand the Shaggy Defense.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jun 08, 2021 4:34 pm Gnome is definitely feeding me the appeal to emotion. It's kind of fun that it's literally embedded in our roles.

More like the shaggy defense tbh.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jun 08, 2021 4:37 pm I'll bring this one back (click) again as the best moment for lost monkey.

I think it's the timing and context of nutella's motion against Lomo that is most important. Any mafioso can make a case to create distance, so I would understand if nutella casing Lomo isn't enough on its own power to clear Lomo as of Day 7. I would find that a little irresponsible too. However, what's most important to me about this is that nutella's case came on the heels of my own case against Lomo. That's textbook opportunism, and I think it makes it notably more likely that this is not distancing. My own case is linked via the link above.

I think distancing is more unlikely when three mafiosos were being strung up D1, too. They can't just bend over and die, they have to force through some deaths on townies that look like they can be run up.

That post looks great for Allcrab. Sonny dropped off sharply in activity after nutella was killed so I don't think he was coming up with convoluted 200 IQ distancing schemes.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jun 08, 2021 4:19 pm I'm thinking about the numbers game to see if the mafia would gain something (e.g. town losing a mischop) if Gnome is chopped instead of dying of poison. If I am not counting incorrectly, Day 5 the numbers would have been (with 5 mafia):

9:2:1

Made was chopped. Had Gnome died of poison before Nanook was killed, we enter Day 6 at 7:1:1.

From the mafia perspective that's the difference between 8:1 and 9:1 (Gnome survives) when considering the poisoner just a non-mafia vote. From a mischops perspective that's the same.

Not sure a mafioso is thinking in these terms. If a mafia healer saved Gnome though it essentially must be Martin, and he does strike me as someone who'd pay attention. I'm not sure he gains something from saving Gnome here. It's cloudy given the presence of a poisoner interferes with theoretical mischops available.

It's not clear to the mafioso when the poisoner would die or how many kills the poisoner would get off, which means they can never be certain that it wouldn't cost them a mischop to leave Gnome alive. Gnome's role itself also has value - for example Allcrab having a Watcher ability was conclusively proven as a result of Gnome's voyeur effect. That's why I don't see the point in leaving Gnome alive. Any mafioso alive by that point must have been strapped for numbers and want as many kills as possible, so it would be psychologically unlikely for them to heal Gnome.

[VOTE: Garden Gnome] aubergine

Voteparking here until someone can give me a plausible explanation for town Gnome surviving the poison that does not involve a scum healer healing a townie for no reason.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 1:20 pm Alison thought it was weird when I claimed poison immunity, why should someone else have it

I thought it was sketchy that you claimed town poison immunity because there's already two claimed poison healers

mafia having poison protection to reduce swing makes more sense

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 9:10 am How about this one.

Gnome and Martin are both mafia and Martin healed her.

Already covered. We flip gnome, if game doesn't end we flip martin.

Tony lying seems to work against him. If we are confident Gnome is scum we will just turbo him and you without any hesitation. So Tony has really no reason to lie here. And he had no reason to fake poison you earlier either.

Perhaps Tony lied. He used a fake poison on you and told us he used a real poison to troll us.

Why would he fake poison you? Why would he troll us when he can't win regardless?

The JJJ is scum healer scenario doesn't explain why he let you live. Neither does the Alison is scum healer scenario.

I will give you free reign now. Brainstorm, imagine, explore to your heart's content. Solve the mystery of why you lived. If you are innocent then there is a concrete and full explanation waiting out there for you to find it.

You being poisonproof scum would be an entirely logical explanation for every event that has occurred. So to me it doesn't seem clear logic has failed.

If you think logic has failed because you have TMI on your green rolecard, then kindly use your imagination to proffer us with an alternative explanation as to the events that have occurred.

Garden Gnome wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 8:21 am
Alison wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 8:18 am Tell you what. Give me one single reason to believe that logic is inaccurate or unreliable here.
The mystery of my survival.
Why am I not dead?
Wouldn't a mafia player want me to be dead?
I would be just one more dead townie, and the scum would be one player closer to victory.
That would be the logical scum play.
But the logical scum play did not occur.
I don't know why that happened.
So I have to think of possibilities that don't look logical for an explanation.
I admit that I am clueless, however.

The other explanation is that you are scum. If you have no alternative explanations I will go with the one I have at hand.

Garden Gnome wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 8:19 am
Alison wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 8:17 am It doesn't matter to me whether you're commanding or suggesting. A real townie has no reason to doubt logic here. We do not have that many unknowns, and logic has been accurate throughout the course of this game. You trying your best to yell back at me and nitpick the wording of my argument when the point - that a townie would use stone cold logic to uncover the truth, not whisk us away on fancy flights of imagination - is clear is doubly outing.
I don't have an analytical mind.
And the unknown is why I am not dead from the poison.
So you are using my thinking style as a weapon to claim that I am scum?
I believe that you can do better than that.

One unknown. Easily resolved by logic. The logic says you are scum.

If I am misrepresenting you here is your chance to restate your point. Why is logic fallible here? Why shouldn't we believe that you are scum?

Tell you what. Give me one single reason to believe that logic is inaccurate or unreliable here.

It doesn't matter to me whether you're commanding or suggesting. A real townie has no reason to doubt logic here. We do not have that many unknowns, and logic has been accurate throughout the course of this game. You trying your best to yell back at me and nitpick the wording of my argument when the point - that a townie would use stone cold logic to uncover the truth, not whisk us away on fancy flights of imagination - is clear is doubly outing.

I could see a townie who is genuinely baffled why they survived the poisoned shrugging their shoulders and going "I don't know it just happened". But the attempt to dissuade me from further inquiry with the "stop being so logical" line is I think outing. A townie would encourage more inquiry into what happened because they themselves are curious and want to know what's going on and why they were saved. They would actively try to eliminate possibilities, come up with theories or propose solutions. I can see no world where a townie wishes to shut down discussion of the matter entirely and just handwave it away.

you are asked why you survived a poison that only a mafioso could conceivably survive and your response is "idk man it just happened. stop being so logical".

Garden Gnome wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 8:00 am
Alison wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 7:58 am I guess I should consider the possibility that there's a scum healer who healed you to frame you

but... why bother? why not just let you die? I mean, reviving you from the dead just to kill you again? Doesn't make sense to me.
I admit that it's bizarre.
But a lot of wacky things have happened during the course of this game.
I can explain none of them.
Maybe the key is not being logical.

you are now outed scum.

So Gnome tell me.

Why did you survive the poison?

If it was a mafia healer healing you, what's the purpose of healing you only to get you misexed? why not just sit there and watch you die instantly without any effort on their part?

I guess I should consider the possibility that there's a scum healer who healed you to frame you

but... why bother? why not just let you die? I mean, reviving you from the dead just to kill you again? Doesn't make sense to me.

it sounds to me like you are claiming mafia

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