The Syndicate

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:58 pm
Alison wrote: ↑Sun Sep 25, 2022 4:51 pm So I am at the top of page 72 and my strongest take is that arogame and Neon are a difference check.
Detail this to me. What is causing this and why?

If Neon is wolf then arogame is town due to trying to push her over and potentially crack the game open on a day that wolves would be feeling very comfortable with letting us waste our time on a foregone town flip.

If Neon is town then arogame is extremely wolfy because flipping Neon here would be disastrous for the town. She'll flip town, I'll almost certainly flip the next day, and suddenly we are in F7.

@arogame123 @Lilypetal
I'd be interested in hearing the Neon haters talk about their thoughts on Wilgy

[VOTE: arogame123] aubergine

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Sep 25, 2022 5:15 pm
Porscha wrote: ↑Sun Sep 25, 2022 5:12 pm Ah, I see. Well besides mac's argument and my beliefs that alison didnt stick to her guns on her self vote and by her own argument is in fact not getting pelts (objectively, without considering *why* she is not getting pelts), then that's mostly it I think. I also have more information than anyone else that the single elimination she did spearhead by herself was also on town, which would make her votes 0/3. By all merits and metrics of alison play, she deserves a flip. You have admitted yourself you have a hard time reading her. I think there are unseen reasons or options into a wolf alison world.
Because she has TMI on me

Which is why the townie things I have done seem townier to her and the fact that I have bad results etc. doesn't seem as important.

Porscha wrote: ↑Sun Sep 25, 2022 5:12 pm Ah, I see. Well besides mac's argument and my beliefs that alison didnt stick to her guns on her self vote and by her own argument is in fact not getting pelts (objectively, without considering *why* she is not getting pelts), then that's mostly it I think. I also have more information than anyone else that the single elimination she did spearhead by herself was also on town, which would make her votes 0/3. By all merits and metrics of alison play, she deserves a flip. You have admitted yourself you have a hard time reading her. I think there are unseen reasons or options into a wolf alison world.

Because she has TMI on me

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sun Sep 25, 2022 5:10 pm does anyone in this game know how to read drwilgy?

I think Wilgy's posting has been townie. He reminds me of Birthday Party.

lucy wrote: ↑Sun Sep 25, 2022 5:05 pm
Alison wrote: ↑Sun Sep 25, 2022 5:04 pm
Porscha wrote: ↑Sun Sep 25, 2022 4:16 am I don't get why you can't just take the hints and agree to doubt yourself more. It's like you're intentionally clinging to the idea that Alison has to be town. Open up your view... I feel you are actively trying to look at it subjectively (like a smaller version of confbias) rather than a more neutral and therefore more objective mindset.
SPF has been steadily trending down after I initially townread her at the start of the day and this is a big part of why. SPF has consistently suspected me whenever she is town, regardless of my alignment unless/until I bury a couple of wolves. Her nearly paranoia free stance on me this game reeks of TMI and reeks of mafia wanting to drag me to endgame where I am a free misexe. I was particularly pinged by her argument that I should be forgiven for my results this game when she is usually very strict on reading me by results especially after last game where it is what led her to concluding I am mafia despite townreading my play.
can you link that?
I do remember the warrior stuff

I can't search on MU because I'm banned lol.

I think it was around Day 4? And she said she suspected me because the first three days have been green flips and she doesn't expect that from town Alison. It's actually even worse because she was totally fine with suspecting me there where 2 of the townies were literally afk 0 posters and 1 modkilled himself and she STILL was strictly reading me by results. Which suggests that it is an Alison reading principle she holds in strong regard and would not lightly let go of it here.

Boquise wrote: ↑Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:18 am
Porscha wrote: ↑Sun Sep 25, 2022 1:17 am
Alison wrote: ↑Sat Sep 24, 2022 8:07 pm So mafia are in the people who didn't care whether Creature or I went over yesterday. Porscha continues to be a candidate for that. Seanzie is another.
you only bring up my name when I was the only one still gave creature any value of not being "an outted wolf" which is more than virtually anyone else gave him. so I'd disagree my name should be brought up before anyone else's. unless you would like to push the TMI idea as I would have called it. what do you think of everyone else who literally did nothing except agree creature was outted wolf when he was well within his town range?
This is false. Both Seanzie and I stated that Creature was in his town meta.

So Alison is incorrect in putting Seanzie there too

Giving Creature credit for not being an outed wolf has nothing to do with my read. It is easy to look at some random villa being hard tunnelled by Mac/SPF/Alison and go... "hmm I think they are town", then chill as they get buried. I was reading people based on how much they seemed to genuinely care about the outcome of the day. Porscha said Creature is probably town but she herself described it as a shameful townread and seemed content to park on me and chill rather than loudly trying to get people off Creature. Same with Seanzie.

Porscha wrote: ↑Sun Sep 25, 2022 4:26 am Ah, but she seriously voted for herself yesterday in an act of solidarity with "correct" gameplay.
And then she bothered self preserving. Maybe she made an explanation why, maybe I'm forgetting. But I have no recollection of why she did this unless of course, it wasn't that serious of a vote since she wouldn't bother sticking to her guns.
If we are to evaluate Alison on Alison standards, as should probably be done, I believe I had the most correct of gamestate thoughts:
if it is between alison vs creature
or alison vs porscha
Alison is the only constant. I also believe Alison should have recognized this, and Mac threw by confbiasing himself into falcon and creature when both of them were well within their town ranges. SPF, I saw you mention Alison has not been leading the game or leading mislynches and therefore her votes cannot be her fault. But have you considered she hasn't HAD to lead the game or lead lynches when the town has been ML'ing town? Why is this seem outside of possibility when you discuss Alison?

viewtopic.php?p=956984#p956984

For my explanation why I self pressed

Porscha wrote: ↑Sun Sep 25, 2022 4:16 am I don't get why you can't just take the hints and agree to doubt yourself more. It's like you're intentionally clinging to the idea that Alison has to be town. Open up your view... I feel you are actively trying to look at it subjectively (like a smaller version of confbias) rather than a more neutral and therefore more objective mindset.

SPF has been steadily trending down after I initially townread her at the start of the day and this is a big part of why. SPF has consistently suspected me whenever she is town, regardless of my alignment unless/until I bury a couple of wolves. Her nearly paranoia free stance on me this game reeks of TMI and reeks of mafia wanting to drag me to endgame where I am a free misexe. I was particularly pinged by her argument that I should be forgiven for my results this game when she is usually very strict on reading me by results especially after last game where it is what led her to concluding I am mafia despite townreading my play.

lucy wrote: ↑Sun Sep 25, 2022 3:08 am boq/lily/Alison/aro/spf poe

This POE probably contains two mafia.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sun Sep 25, 2022 2:29 am For data sake:
Lily and Boq on me.

Porscha, Aro and Sean on Alison.

@Alison, I likely won't get to you till tomorrow, in the interim can you briefly describe your position. Why are you lead wagon, who should be the lead wagon and is there a wolf on you? Who. You often have a gravity so I think this inquiry is a good way for me to start while I try to figure out what I in a previous life saw in Aro's slot.

I was D1 counterwagon to a town flip. People wanted to resolve me D2 so they can do wagonomic analysis on the D1 wagons. Creature went over instead and flipped town, so now there is a strong sentiment that I have to go no matter what.

It feels like SPF's sole goal this day phase is to get me to leave a legacy saying she is town.

So I am at the top of page 72 and my strongest take is that arogame and Neon are a difference check.

Alright, I'm here for real now, and I should have time to play for the rest of the night.

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Sep 25, 2022 1:37 pm I am back. Catching up.

Cancel this, I got midway in and have to attend to a friend who needs help. I'll be back in a few hours to resume.

I am back. Catching up.

Actually I kinda want to clear Porscha since two nightkills in a row hard townread her.

Seanzie wrote: ↑Sat Sep 24, 2022 8:18 pm
Alison wrote: ↑Sat Sep 24, 2022 8:17 pm I am essentially playing a phase ahead of all of you because I know my flip and therefore I am solving in the same headspace all of you will be in 48 hours if you exe me.

So in that world I strongly recommend you read over my D3 posts and solve alongside them.
Was your midday self-vote performative or serious?

Serious.

I am essentially playing a phase ahead of all of you because I know my flip and therefore I am solving in the same headspace all of you will be in 48 hours if you exe me.

So in that world I strongly recommend you read over my D3 posts and solve alongside them.

Seanzie wrote: ↑Sat Sep 24, 2022 8:10 pm
Alison wrote: ↑Sat Sep 24, 2022 8:07 pm So mafia are in the people who didn't care whether Creature or I went over yesterday. Porscha continues to be a candidate for that. Seanzie is another.
Or you killed Mac specifically to pave a way to try to mischop me, one of the two.

You kill me today, I flip town.

Your top suspect is?

arogame pushed me but not very energetically honestly. It did not feel like he was that invested in ensuring I went over and he conceded that Creature was scummy as well. Mac who was his biggest suspector died in the night.

SPF/lucy did not play the day like they didn't care who died. SPF especially made herself look bad by hard pushing Creature when she would probably just have sat back and ate popcorn yesterday as mafia.

There was enough inquisitiveness/probing in Rondo's solving that makes me think he probably cared and Mac top townread him. So he is cleared.

Nanook didn't even care enough to declare his vote.

So mafia are in the people who didn't care whether Creature or I went over yesterday. Porscha continues to be a candidate for that. Seanzie is another.

This game is fucked.

Creature's attempt to flash wagon Neon is outing. It is disastrous for the town to vote outside of me and him today and he should know it. This goes double if he thinks the game is lost if I'm town... in which case he has nothing to lose by voting me. He is either in anti spew or he is flailing after a seemingly easy D2 did not go as planned for his team. Vote him out.

I am leaving now, do not fuck up.

No excuses for last minute or last second vote swaps. Make up your mind who you're going to vote and lock it in at least 5 minutes before EOD. It's not much to ask. If more than one person tries for a last second vote swap it could lead to a tie which would be the worst world since in this game it forces a sleep.

In case anyone asks the reason I stopped self voting is that enough people seem to have gotten there on my alignment that I don't think town needs my flip to move forward any more, and I think a Creature red flip has a good likelihood of solving most of the game on the spot. If he's town then it doesn't matter which of us goes first because the other will get turbo'd the next day anyway.

Alright, I have to go to an event soonish I don't think I'll be back before EOD although I might be able to check my phone.

[VOTE: Creature] aubergine

I was hoping to see if anyone would assume I would stay self voted and try to get me over, and Nanook silent voted so I would hard POE him if Creature flips mafia.

If I go over, legacy is to turbo Creature. If Creature flips mafia, turbo Nanook, then Porscha/Arogame/SPF in some order. Very likely to find the last two here, although you should re-evaluate in FX and based on the nightkills. If Creature flips town then the game is fucked and you should probably reassess Mac. Seanzie is very likely a wolf in this world given he has been mostly coasting today with very few relevant pushes and that makes sense if the wagons are T/T. Hopefully it doesn't come to that. Don't trust my reads too much in that world anyway.

I don't know if Creature is in anti spew or not. I just think he's been wolfy and his pushes have been bad (the most recent example being him trying to call out Boq for slipping under the radar when Boq loudly deviated from consensus to pressure a widely townread player).

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:27 pm alison was a wolf last game and saw the way that NKA led the town down the wrong path and almost singlehandedly lost us the game, so you think that she would have learned her lesson not to trust NKA if she was town but w/e

NKA correctly led SK to suspect there was a wolf in the sisterhood, which was pivotal for exerting pressure in me. Specifically the reasoning that an "offbeat" N1 indicated a wolf in the towncore... which is exactly what I am thinking here. And is exactly what happened in Halvorsen Ridge and was true there as well.

Boquise wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:10 pm @Alison have you decided whether you will keep voting yourself or will you vote Creature for the self press?

Yes but I am not saying because it makes the wagonomics much less organic especially if Creature is mafia. I will lock in my decision by 2 hours to EOD.

I could maybe see a world where the Jack kill was made to make town go into chaos and tinfoil the big names... but that implies that the mafia are all not within the big names (something like Porscha Creature Neon) and made a ballsy WIFOM kill. This would require a lot of cojones given the chance that they just get run over if the WIFOM doesn't work. I guess I have seen mafia try it once (in Champs Practice Game 1 this year) but they got swept for it so lol.

Boquise wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:07 pm A) Mafia overestimated Jack's survivability, that he would be able to post himself clear on D2. Requires knowledge of him. Here SPF fits imo.
B) Mafia wants to frame you. This could be done both sincerely or in a wifomy manner. The latter pointing at you, the former your main pushers.
C) A Jack kill signals that there is at least a wolf inside Me/Mac/SPF/Aro, similar to the other game we played here when the N1 kill (or was it the N2? idr) made me start thinking there was a wolf in you/me/JJJ. Lo and behold, there were two.
D) Mafia actually contains of noobs who misread the game and arent good at making NKs Can be combined with B.
E) Mafia are chaos goblins, can be combined with B. Mafia are so confident with their thread position so they don't care.

I guess if I theorise more, Nanook should probably not want Jack murdered solely because they held the same thread position, and Falcon, who was in the same position too, was yeeted.

The problem is that those worlds either don't make sense or implicate SPF.

A) implicates SPF as you have said.
B) is unlikely. To frame me the obvious kill is Mac. He was saying he would blacklist anyone who didn't vote me yesterday, so killing him N1 strongly frames me + prevents him (who has a very good grasp of my meta) from reevalling me as he did.
C) Again signals there is a wolf in the group which contains SPF.
D)... I don't think there is anyone who is that nooby that they don't know that Jack is a worse kill than Mac or SPF in the worlds they are town.
E) implicates Rondo more than anyone, but Rondo is both townie and appears to have been afk through the night phase.

If wolves are so confident in their thread position they don't care then that implicates SPF as well.

So you see my worry here.

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:08 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:03 pm for what it's worth i am incredibly close to "bet the game" levels on creature being an outed wolf
Has Creature actually said things to make you intensify your scumread on him or are you just saying this so you can quote it to seem unaligned after a Creature red flip?

Between now and the last time you talked about him, I mean. Or were you bet the game on him even before then and you are just reiterating your position?

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:03 pm for what it's worth i am incredibly close to "bet the game" levels on creature being an outed wolf

Has Creature actually said things to make you intensify your scumread on him or are you just saying this so you can quote it to seem unaligned after a Creature red flip?

When Mac wrongly tunnelled you in Spiritfarer you were extremely frustrated that someone you perceived as obvious town just couldn't get there on you. Here you seem more bemused at my push on you than anything... considering a big part of my scumread involves NKA which you think is bullshit shouldn't you be equally frustrated with me?

Boquise wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 3:57 pm
Alison wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 3:51 pm
Boquise wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 3:46 pm So unless the team is exactly between like Neon/Creature/Rondo/Nanook (picking my four lowest reads), I am wrong in my towns tbh.
I don't think any combination of those names kills Jack which means you probably are misclearing a town and it is probably SPF.
Does wolf!spf go out of her way to speak down to a town player's skills and also NK that player who she had been pushing for a long while tbh?

Maybe and maybe. I think the first is well within her scum range. I don't have a grasp on her NK "range" or philosophy, how WIFOM-y she is, etc., but Jack was the only one who really suspected her D1 which means that on some level SPF has a concrete motive to kill him.

Who do you think are the likely names to want Jack dead?

I think Rondo's latest posting has been townie but considering he zeroposted and then silent voted and continued to zeropost D1 I don't feel bad at all about suspecting him before he came back to the thread and would not suspect anyone just for wanting him dead.

Lilypetal wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 3:53 pm hey hey hey

im caught up

is rondo regarded as a good player? their catchup posts seemed super towny and I'm beginning to really dislike the idea that they were floated around in the "we should kill" group day 1 and early day 2 cuz now I'm beginning to think that may have been opportunistic scum trying to remove a good player. I need to go back and check but I don't even remember who suggested it lol

He is a very trolly and chaotic player who often seems to care more about making the game a clown fiesta than winning. This is not an insult; I suspect Rondo himself would happily agree with that characterization. In his rare moments of seriousness, he can play very well, as in Halvorsen Ridge, where he pocketed both Mac and Boq as mafia.

Boquise wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 3:46 pm So unless the team is exactly between like Neon/Creature/Rondo/Nanook (picking my four lowest reads), I am wrong in my towns tbh.

I don't think any combination of those names kills Jack which means you probably are misclearing a town and it is probably SPF.

It is funny to see everyone slowly coalesce on "Creature scum" around that time in their catchup

@Creature What's your read of Porscha?

@arogame123 What's your read of Creature?

Full disclosure that today is actually a very busy day for me because I have both school and an event I have to attend that will stretch through EOD. I will try to check my phone if I get a break during the event but it is entirely possible that I will miss EOD itself.

Boquise wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 1:54 pm maybe alison isnt town reading spf per se, but everything feels so toothless and wholesome tbh

I actually strongly suspect SPF but also strongly suspect that I will be gone one way or another before the time is right to resolve her. So it is kinda awkward for me. I have tried to make my suspicions clear in my legacy so people don't just clear her, especially the part where I think it is entirely possible for her to be bussing Creature.

RondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 10:29 am
Alison wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 4:29 pm It is clear you people cannot solve the game or move on without seeing my flip so let's just do that today. I will admit I was a bit hesitant at the start of today because Jack is an odd kill for Porscha to make and I didn't really want to allow chain Alison -> Porscha misexes if that was the case. I don't care any more though, I'm more of a liability at this point given that so many people are stuck without knowing I'm town + Porscha is probably scum regardless. (Also I cannot be allowed to endgame under any circumstances, it's a free win for mafia if I do.)

[VOTE: Alison] aubergine

My legacy POE is given. If you put a gun to my head and told me to give an exact team solve, I'd say Porscha/Creature/SPF. Creature is right, 3 "POE'd" slots doesn't kill Jack over SPF or Mac. Mac is town ergo SPF is in the team and killed Jack because he was the only one sussing her. It would explain why a Porscha team would kill Jack, and I think it neatly explains everything that went on D1.
Or perhaps you dont want to leave more spew/antispew. At this point I believe the votes were actually more on creature than you so this is an interesting post as I dont see Alison as the giving up type. :think:

It was like 3 votes on me 1 vote on Creature at that point I made this post and there was a strong sentiment that my flip would help the town information wise. I have suicided many times as town if I think it will help the game (as SPF pointed out earlier).

I am kinda interested with the way Creature's wagon has risen because he is one of my top suspects. I do still feel kinda obligated to follow correct play but it's hard to really object to people wanting to kill someone I think is a likely wolf over me. At any rate I definitely think Creature counterwagon to me is correct because it creates a lot of good wagonomics if he is wolf.

I think Boquise and Rondo's catchups have both been townie. I worry about Rondo slightly because my instinct is that he'd actually play trollier as town than scum but I think it's a good sign that he has largely coalesced onto many of the same suspicions I have. Boq is just being the same independently solving self that got him killed in SCI and his pushes (eg. his vote on Lilypetal) feel more driven by curiosity than agenda. I think Creature's shade on Boq as slipping under the radar is pretty bad when Boq's push on Lily and brief kerfluffle with Neon show a lack of desire to avoid attention.

arogame123 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 1:11 pm
Creature wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 1:04 pm
arogame123 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 12:55 pm
Creature wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 12:51 pm I don't know if SPF is a busser. In my experience with wolf!her she literally lied about wolfreading her wolf partners. Other llayers also told me she is more the powerwolfing type.
Oh interesting. I remember talking with some players in spec and what not, and they were talking about how spf is a chronic busser lol.

But I’ll keep that in mind if she powerwolfs as well

But for now, I still believe she’s one of my top towns as she’s emulated town leader energy and is attempting to bring everyone together and is hard defending their tr which I find pretty townie.
I don't recall SPF being considered a chronic busser. She always felt like the powerwolfing type and she was caught in anni mash specifically for not having any pelt and lying about it.
Yea, I remember that lol...

She def came off more as pockety for sure tho is what I realized from that game as well.

SPF has bussed heavily in every wolf game I remember her in and I believe Mac has expressed the same view of her in the past. She feels pressure to produce red flips because she knows she will be policied if she does not. It's not out of her range to powerwolf, but I don't think she's doing that here (given she has been hard defending me) and if she is mafia I suspect she is bussing Creature more than anything.

Creature wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 1:08 pm I feel like he's more of everybody's consensus townread for solving and I kinda agreed with it. I was just concerned about arogame123 deepwolfing like Twice who got cleared easily last game.

I was asking you about your reasons to townread arogame, so "he's everybody's consensus townread" is kinda a deflection.

Creature wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 12:56 pm
arogame123 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 12:50 pm
Creature wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 12:47 pm
arogame123 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 12:43 pm I will say though, Rondo saying my takes were consensus mill and then lists 2 of the 6 people in my POE.

I also don’t understand how they went from Aro top town read mixed to with mindmelds, to dropping that read later on.

Hopefully they’ll explain later so I can get a better understanding and discern the progression.
I keep getting paranoid you might be deep wolfing here. Because you sound pretty reasonable and I feel like you had a lot more fire in the Midnight Mash. Perhaps it might be because this is a normal non-mash game. Still I wonder if you're skilled enough to fake solving as wolf.
Well, mash doesn’t have a post cap and the timings were different for me. I still feel I’ve been top posting and putting a lot of content out there for people to see.

I mean if you’d like, you can check out my mafia games I posted earlier in the thread.

It’s interesting to me Creature that your reason of paranoi is solely that I can be a “deep wolf/good player” when from your pov, im currently extending an olive branch and hearing you out.
You're one of my top townreads rn if not the top, but I have never seen your wolf play and I'm concerned you'd be good enough to fake solving.

I ended up wolfreading you earlier because you had dropped off ftr.

Why is arogame your top town read? I don't remember you interacting/vibing with or townclearing him much.

I am awake and currently catching up.

RondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 9:07 pm I dont disagree if Alison flips town I am doing a 720 on Mac

Yes, because if I flip town you will kill one of my top townreads at the behest of one of my top scumreads.

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