The Syndicate

Going to self hammer now to prevent any more townie discussion. Sorry. Thanks for the game, I've never been trounced this hard before.

I suppose I should admit I am mafia now. I don't think I can save myself. You guys were too good; I was boxed in from the start.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:25 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:24 pm Anyone have anything pressing to say before I end the day?

Thanks for your efforts either way.

You're welcome.

It vaguely reminds me of how he handled Bonk, where he was certain the person up to be exed was town and was trying to get traction on the people pushing them. I don't know how much stock to put in this read. He is not in my immediate POE anyway.

Anyone have anything pressing to say before I end the day?

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:17 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:15 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:11 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:10 pm Consolidating my legacy into a single post that is easy to refer to and quote.

Hally, c4 and Marmot are my towncore.
Jay and Wilgy below them.
NAA below that.
Dizzy, Nanook, Mac and Radishes are the immediate POE.

Very high chance there is at least one mafia between Radishes and Dizzy.

can you give me the cliff notes on dizzy again?

I didn't think the way he pushed me was in good faith. He usually has a decent read on me, and often uses emotional "vibes" to read me because he knows I will be logical either way. Neither of those things were present here.

I believe the wagon on me to have specious reasoning. I know you think the reasoning isn't specious. Please do not let that fact cloud your judgement as you move forward; I really do not think that the wagon on me was driven by townies. When you see me flip green, understand that you and other townies on my wagon have been guided to it by malicious forces. Dizzy and MR fit into that category the best.

alright, idk what to do with this really

i grant that fypov it makes sense if you’re v but it doesn’t really move me

I am giving my legacy. This is meant to be read in light of my green flip, during the night. I have accepted my fate for today, and believe that a last minute flash wagon is likely to do more harm than good.

Perhaps I will be embarassed postgame if it turns out that NAA is mafia. But I don't think I will ever regret turning down an offer to perform a flash wagon.

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:13 pm alison would you vote NAA with jay and me?

No. NAA is 5th most in my POE, and seems to be hard Alison siding. Not only does this raise his chances of being town, it means that if he does flip town, we walk into tomorrow in the same situation, with the same suspicion of me, except with a staunch ally of mine gone from the game. In all likelihood, I will be voted out, plunging town into F5 with very little information.

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:11 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:10 pm Consolidating my legacy into a single post that is easy to refer to and quote.

Hally, c4 and Marmot are my towncore.
Jay and Wilgy below them.
NAA below that.
Dizzy, Nanook, Mac and Radishes are the immediate POE.

Very high chance there is at least one mafia between Radishes and Dizzy.

can you give me the cliff notes on dizzy again?

I didn't think the way he pushed me was in good faith. He usually has a decent read on me, and often uses emotional "vibes" to read me because he knows I will be logical either way. Neither of those things were present here.

I believe the wagon on me to have specious reasoning. I know you think the reasoning isn't specious. Please do not let that fact cloud your judgement as you move forward; I really do not think that the wagon on me was driven by townies. When you see me flip green, understand that you and other townies on my wagon have been guided to it by malicious forces. Dizzy and MR fit into that category the best.

Consolidating my legacy into a single post that is easy to refer to and quote.

Hally, c4 and Marmot are my towncore.
Jay and Wilgy below them.
NAA below that.
Dizzy, Nanook, Mac and Radishes are the immediate POE.

Very high chance there is at least one mafia between Radishes and Dizzy.

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:06 pm I would also kill MR. MR or dizzy best chances of hitting mafia

I think there is a very high chance there is one scum between those two, yes.

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:07 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:06 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:04 pm I don't really have the time to catch up fully. You all know my legacy. Kindly follow it.

you have my word i’ll consider your reads if you flip v

Why not currently?

Presumably they think I am mafia.

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:06 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:04 pm I don't really have the time to catch up fully. You all know my legacy. Kindly follow it.

you have my word i’ll consider your reads if you flip v

That's all I can ask for.

If we CFD some random person, we hit a town because CFDs always hit town. The next day I am still on the chopping block and suddenly town is in LyLo. Just kill me today so y'all can fix your world view ASAP.

I would rather die than CFD.

I don't really have the time to catch up fully. You all know my legacy. Kindly follow it.

I see I am about to be D1ed for the second time in 13+ years of playing mafia. At least it isn't a CFD.

sup

PS: The post where Marmot gets annoyed at me saying I'd never vote Mac D1 and yells at me for it is likely out of his scum range. I bet if he was mafia there with town me on the ropes he'd just skate by. His annoyance is that of a townie's wanting to get it right/make sure I'm not being an ego player who drops dumb legacies/solves. Quote this in postgame if I am embarrassingly wrong.

My towncore is c4, Marmot and Hally. I'd be shocked if any of them are mafia. Wilgy and JJJ are a step below. Then NAA, then the scummy stew of four.

Treat this + my assertion that there is definitely at least one mafia in Dizzy/Radish as my most confident legacy if I get hammered for real overnight.

I have just eaten a pot of Samyang noodles. My sinuses are clear and my brain is tired. I have read up.

- Mac's re-entrance into the thread does not spark joy. He appears to be generating chaos for the sake of it when I think he would approach the gamestate in a more orderly fashion if his reads were as he claims they were. Specifically, if he townreads me and sees me in danger of receiving a guillotine to the neck, I believe he would not be doing things like, eg. "voting c4 for science". I'm scratching my head why he (presumably) townreads me over the "rock apes" mindmeld. Surely I'd be frustrated at having a read confidence misrepped as either alignment.

- I still do not want to vote Mac off today. My reasoning remains the same.

- I have seen NAA's argument that JJJ is most likely to be the scum voting me. I definitely think I am being pushed by scum. Radish and Dizzy are more likely than JJJ, though. I tend to think that JJJ is the kind of townie that ramps up the townieness over time. If he is town, he will show that townieness in a brilliant dazzle as time goes on until it is undeniable to everyone and he becomes universally townread. If it is later in the game and he still hasn't ramped up, then maybe scrutinize him then. I have other leads to pursue in the meantime.

- I think Wilgy is town now. Gut read. Believe it or don't.

- Nanook takes Wilgy's place of suspicion in the POE for trying to hammer me. I had Wilgy paired with Axe specifically because Axe seemed willing to sheep my push on anyone but him, but I don't think Nanook and Axe read as strongly paired. They could be partners, it's not out of the question, but it's not an association I think is significantly more likely than Nanook + other person or Axe + other person. I think in this updated solve I'd throw Nanook in as a wild card replacement of one of Radish/Mac if I'm wrong on them. Radish/Mac/Dizzy/Nanook are floating around in some kind of scummy stew. I think there's two mafia in there and the most likely exact pair is Radish/Mac but I wouldn't be shocked to see any of the others in one of the slots. Axe is less scummy than the four of them especially given his hard Alison siding and the fact that the person I partnered him with now reads as town to me. He is 5th in the POE.

Good night.

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 8:07 pm btw if alison tries to claim PR past this point she’s a wolf

as town PR she strongly believes it’s optimal to claim early when under pressure and would have claimed already

do not entertain any late PR claims from her

This is correct. I am Vanilla Town. If I came back and saw this wagon and I was a PR I would have claimed immediately and gotten you all off my back so you can worry about finding the actual mafia.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 8:06 pm Alison, if you’re town, you should spend your time finding the actual wolves. Not whatever this is. It may require reading the thread.

To be clear, I am town and I have spent my last few posts constructing what I believe to be the most likely solve to win the game.

Maybe I will read the thread later. I have skimmed briefly through it in between posts and it seemed largely like a continuation of what came before.

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 8:03 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 8:00 pm my vote is also on alison in spirit

I guess she's been spirit hammered then

Alison has spirit died. She flips town.

The game will continue.

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 8:02 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 8:00 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:57 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:50 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:47 pm alison, convince me that radishes is a dastardly villain please

it can’t just be that post dizzy quoted, right?

His entrance was bad. c4 made a case against him if you care about that. I don't, but maybe it sways you. Then he came back into the thread and sort of acknowledged the suspicion on him but skated by. (He was top wagon when he returned to the thread. But he did not do anything townie. Now he is not top wagon. This makes me wonder why.) His wagon position relative to mine makes me suspect him more.

i don’t see how this could possibly make you so confident he’s a wolf? i think radishes frequently “skates by” D1 and doesn’t really do much as a villager

I think he puts in more energy if he thinks he's going to get misexed.

when has he been in danger of being misexed today? i haven’t ever felt like his wagon was particularly likely to go over

Remember when I asked people to vote MR and they refused because it would almost hammer him?

I have said my piece. If it isn't convincing anyone, it isn't convincing anyone. This is not a player list that will be swayed by me shouting and screaming and using coercive tactics. I'm going to leave for a while, and my solve and strategy is clear.

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:59 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:53 pm I am about 70% confident that Radish is mafia and you guys are acting like I'm 95% confident. It's weird.

Where in my posts have I projected confidence? Has my solve even focused untowardly on Radish at all, except as one step in a long sequence?

Please

you’re literally telling us to kill him and then kill you if it’s wrong lol

That would be a thunderdome.

I am not thunderdoming him. I am giving you a flowchart of actions to perform. My worldview is expanded and beyond just "kill Radish no matter what".

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:57 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:50 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:47 pm alison, convince me that radishes is a dastardly villain please

it can’t just be that post dizzy quoted, right?

His entrance was bad. c4 made a case against him if you care about that. I don't, but maybe it sways you. Then he came back into the thread and sort of acknowledged the suspicion on him but skated by. (He was top wagon when he returned to the thread. But he did not do anything townie. Now he is not top wagon. This makes me wonder why.) His wagon position relative to mine makes me suspect him more.

i don’t see how this could possibly make you so confident he’s a wolf? i think radishes frequently “skates by” D1 and doesn’t really do much as a villager

I think he puts in more energy if he thinks he's going to get misexed.

I feel that the suspicion on me is unfounded.

When I am genuinely scummy or have a bad position in thread I try to look for opportunistic mafia trying to egg townies onto the wagon and gently push it while keeping their hands clean. This is what I did in COV.

But this is not what I think is going on here. I am playing a perfectly normal game and half the player list suspects me for no reason. This is an unnatural dynamic. I suspect that the mafia aren't trying to keep their hands clean and are just straight up taking lead on my wagon.

Radish and Dizzy both fit into this archetype, at this point in the thread. If I am to go down as having a confident, "deathtunnel" read, it is that one or both of them are mafia.

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:53 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:50 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:47 pm alison, convince me that radishes is a dastardly villain please

it can’t just be that post dizzy quoted, right?

His entrance was bad. c4 made a case against him if you care about that. I don't, but maybe it sways you. Then he came back into the thread and sort of acknowledged the suspicion on him but skated by. (He was top wagon when he returned to the thread. But he did not do anything townie. Now he is not top wagon. This makes me wonder why.) His wagon position relative to mine makes me suspect him more.

Way to slip C4's thing in there without personally relying on it for your own case.

I don't care if people are right for the wrong reasons.

I don't believe in c4's specific reasoning, but if it helps a townie get there on you, why not?

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:52 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:50 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:47 pm alison, convince me that radishes is a dastardly villain please

it can’t just be that post dizzy quoted, right?

His entrance was bad. c4 made a case against him if you care about that. I don't, but maybe it sways you. Then he came back into the thread and sort of acknowledged the suspicion on him but skated by. (He was top wagon when he returned to the thread. But he did not do anything townie. Now he is not top wagon. This makes me wonder why.) His wagon position relative to mine makes me suspect him more.

You forgot the part about the flat-sounding egotistical thingy.

That's covered under "his entrance was bad".

I am about 70% confident that Radish is mafia and you guys are acting like I'm 95% confident. It's weird.

Where in my posts have I projected confidence? Has my solve even focused untowardly on Radish at all, except as one step in a long sequence?

Please

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:51 pm

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:49 pm I am unconvinced that Alison is this convinced about me.

same

it just reads like she picked a random lhf villager to try to ram through and inflated her confidence in it to hide that there’s no substance to her push

You guys are talking like I am deathtunnelling Radish.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:48 pm I've a sense from Alison that the motivation here is to push back her own chop, at worst Day 2 (e.g. chop me next if X flips town), or at best never (because flowcharts are nearly never followed rigidly through a game). Moreover, "if X flips town, chop me next" puts us in a zero-margin-for-error final phase if Alison is town. As we've said: two mischops available.

Hard to believe.

I would like not to be chopped today yes.

I would rather have a zero margin for error final phase than a negative margin for error final phase. That is why I made the decision I did.

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:47 pm alison, convince me that radishes is a dastardly villain please

it can’t just be that post dizzy quoted, right?

His entrance was bad. c4 made a case against him if you care about that. I don't, but maybe it sways you. Then he came back into the thread and sort of acknowledged the suspicion on him but skated by. (He was top wagon when he returned to the thread. But he did not do anything townie. Now he is not top wagon. This makes me wonder why.) His wagon position relative to mine makes me suspect him more.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:46 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:43 pm

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:42 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:41 pm I have done more solving in the few posts after I came back and didn't read than multiple slots have done all game. Voting me is the wrong move.

Your solving is trying to take away a consensus town read (it's not really) from a town so no

Also, no.

That's because you don't deserve the consensus town read. Maybe you are town. You are not a prime suspect. But I saw you do practically nothing before I went to bed and then I woke up and you were hard pushing me so I don't think you deserve the consensus town read at all.

Also, my solving is presenting a flowchart that has a 60% chance of winning the game on the spot. That's pretty good for like, half of Day 1.

I love you

Me too.

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:45 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:41 pm I have done more solving in the few posts after I came back and didn't read than multiple slots have done all game. Voting me is the wrong move.

you really haven’t done anything though? all you’ve done is throw out people as suspects without explaining anything really and then say to sheep you and kill you if you’re wrong

that’s not solving

This is not what I said. I gave you a solve, I didn't demand that you sheep it. I said that you should kill me if Radish flips green because it's the right move gamestate wise, not because of some "kill me if I'm wrong" ultimatum.

I am happy to explain any of my suspects if you wish me to go into detail on them. I didn't think you needed me to explain to you why I have, say, Wilgy in the POE, and I have articulated my suspicion on Mac and mentioned that I found his response to be scummy. If you have any questions about specific aspects of my solve, I am here to answer them.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:42 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:41 pm I have done more solving in the few posts after I came back and didn't read than multiple slots have done all game. Voting me is the wrong move.

Your solving is trying to take away a consensus town read (it's not really) from a town so no

Also, no.

That's because you don't deserve the consensus town read. Maybe you are town. You are not a prime suspect. But I saw you do practically nothing before I went to bed and then I woke up and you were hard pushing me so I don't think you deserve the consensus town read at all.

Also, my solving is presenting a flowchart that has a 60% chance of winning the game on the spot. That's pretty good for like, half of Day 1.

I have done more solving in the few posts after I came back and didn't read than multiple slots have done all game. Voting me is the wrong move.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:37 pm I'm happy to accept Dizzy as a town read purely by consensus. He's close enough. Perhaps I swap him with Mac in the uncertain pile. I end up with something like:

c4, Dizzy, Hally, Marmot
-
MR, Mac
-
Alison, Nanook, NAA, Wilgy

Wilgy's in a strange spot right now. I think he is the most actively suspicious player in the thread, save perhaps Alison. Both Dizzy and Nanook have provided strong vouches though so I will think about it. The Nanook-Wilgy dynamic is especially important.

I don't think Dizzy should be a consensus town read. This man has done nothing.

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:37 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:30 pm Mac responded to my concern post. It was a scummy response. Mac is probably scum.

I am never voting Mac today.

wat

If we vote out Mac today and he flips town the game is lost so I don't see a reason to risk it when I can gun for his partner.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:37 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:36 pmPerhaps you have done townie things in the section I didn't read. Feel free to quote them to spark discussion in advance.

Well, I called your post bs. That's pretty towny, especially considering you're mafia.

I'm not mafia, so it's not townie at all. Also, it's not true.

Here is my advice on what to do. First, eliminate Radish so that I won't die today.

If Radish flips scum, then eliminate Mac. If Mac is town, then eliminate Dizzy and Wilgy, in that order.

If Radish flips town, then eliminate me. I will flip town, whereupon which you should eliminate NAA and Wilgy.

I have about a 60% confidence that this solve wins the game. This may not seem like a lot of confidence, but it's actually quite a lot if you think about what I am proposing.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:34 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:33 pm I don't know what to make of Dizzy's suspicion of me so I'm going to ignore it.

Dizzy is POE'd for other reasons (mainly doing nothing townie), but he is not a prime suspect.

I've done only towny things you don't even know what a citizen pays in taxes

Perhaps you have done townie things in the section I didn't read. Feel free to quote them to spark discussion in advance.

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:33 pm 9 v 2

7 v 2

5 v 2

3 v 2

isn’t it four? or three depending on wolf kp i guess

2-3 misexes before F5. If wolf has KP, that's 2 misexes.

9v2 MISEXE + WOLF KP = 6v2 MISEXE = 4v2 NO EXE = 3v2 = NO MORE MISEXES

So JJJ is right to say there are probably only 2 misexes.

I don't know what to make of Dizzy's suspicion of me so I'm going to ignore it.

Dizzy is POE'd for other reasons (mainly doing nothing townie), but he is not a prime suspect.

The other option for scum team is NAA and Wilgy.

I think Mac and Radish is most likely the team though.

I've given my townreads that you can work off. Everyone else is like, some variant of shrug POE slot that you can slot into a solve if it turns out my guesses aren't correct.

I think the scum team is Mac and Radish.

Mac responded to my concern post. It was a scummy response. Mac is probably scum.

I am never voting Mac today.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:27 pm We probably only get two mischops in this game. I suggest we eliminate the top suspect every time without regard for who it is. The game is unlikely to offer a wealth of time and chop resources to sort itself out. This might be speaking the obvious, but I don't think it's obvious in practice.

I agree with you.