The Syndicate

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 9:16 pm Dolby feels just uber town here. I am never tinfoiling him.

HK ... gotta be town.

Hmmm I guess I'll do this the old fashioned way.

Which of the mafia flips are we most confident is real in order?

If that is your solve don't you just have auto with me + Scotty?

The soup is fake but mafia has not used it.

That means it was most likely not a gambit soup and was the mafia team intentionally submitting false information about their own team members. They were willing to sacrifice a nightkill to do so which means they were willing to give up KP to make LC go deep. Which implies that none of them were very deep.

Well, two working guns. The question is how does Scotty get his hands on two working guns if he is not mafia.

If Scotty only has one gun then he has to bus LC, he has no choice. If he shoots a townie he gets turbo'd and LC gets turbo'd straight after.

If Scotty has two guns he is clear.

How did Scotty get the gun?

I was pretty sure the soup was real so this is a surprise to me. I kind of still think the last mafia is Scotty though. I don't think the shot clears him, since if he's mafia with LC he has no path to victory except bussing.

Do you have any night results to share?

If someone is bad in the soup I would say it's LC.

I have seen no evidence that someone is bad in the soup though.

I'm not voting until everyone checks in, yeah.

The tactician might have redistributed roles, which would explain the delay. We know that kidnapper and time loop are real roles, at least.

He was rezzed by his flavor card apparently.

@Dolby Do you have a check left?

I'm going to wait for the remainder of the town to check in and then I'm going to try something.

Suicidal. Really.

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 2:17 pm Would you be willing to claim the category of your roles? Like, investigative, protective, killing, etc.?

^

No, it's the last scum. See the mod post on SOD today.

Would you be willing to claim the category of your roles? Like, investigative, protective, killing, etc.?

Scotty wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 2:12 pm
Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 2:10 pm It's a nice flavor card. Honestly kinda scummy you kept it this long given that you'd never eat an NK and other people could use it better than you.

How do you like mine?
My intent was to hold it once I could be more consensus town, which I thought I was until d4 when I had some more people pipe up that I wasn’t, and so I shipped it odd to someone that could use it more. Wanted to give it to Mac but settled on you.

Yours is nice, good early game, I don’t think I have a great use for it. Don’t know how you have utilized it at all this game to influence your reads tho

Mine didn't trigger on any night I was visited so it was basically blank. It's a shame, I could have outed the kidnapper with it early.

You haven't used a single role this game?

Why not give it to Mac?

Town votes Alison for NK immunity, mafia can't kill me so they aim their gun at Mac instead.

Mac gets your flavor card, Mac steals NK immunity, kill is blocked. It's what I would have done in your shoes.

It's a nice flavor card. Honestly kinda scummy you kept it this long given that you'd never eat an NK and other people could use it better than you.

How do you like mine?

If it's between you and LC I'm far more inclined to vote you though.

Actually you're right, LC being solo scum with a soup remaining would win if Scotty was town and claimed his role. Since right now an LC making a soupkill would kill Mac, HK and Dolby but leave me and Scotty alive.

The other thing is that I don't understand why you think it's MyLo when you seem willing to clear everyone except LC.

Possibly you have something up your sleeve (a second soup? Some extra KP mechanic?) that you think could maybe help you win the game if you get a misexe today and that's why you're gunning for LC as the softest clear you can possibly swing the vote on.

Also you don't get to pull the "why would I put myself in a corner as mafia" card when I'm pretty sure the kills were on clears and were blocked by the bodyguards.

You aren't getting souped at this point.

Scotty fullclaim please.

I am waiting for everyone else to check in because of possible night action results.

My current intent is to vote Scotty.

Oh right.

I believe the soup is real (see my point about nanook's KP) so I am clearing LC/Mac/Dolby. HK is only scum if he was death-godfathered and pretended to be rezzed VT when he was in fact rezzed goon. I suppose the writing on the wall was there so they had time to setup but he has been townie on play and it would be weird for the mafia to just send HK barrelling in like that guns blazing to suicide and flip wrong. Especially since they might not have known a resurrector exists.

Yes, the mafia got my role wrong.

I know I am town, I also believe you are town, and I believe the last wolf is Scotty.

I am verified by action: I was responsible for Michelle's death. Nobody else has claimed responsibility. I have also been kidnapped on a day I'd be poised to completely control the town if I was a deepwolf.

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 12:06 pm
Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 12:04 pm
hollowkatt wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 11:29 am Why not kill in the soup though
Given both dead townies flipped Bodyguard I'll venture that they might very well have.
How do we get two people with the same role though? Other than that yeah, I agree with you. C4 and Listo are never the kills here.

In the Percy/Kate crossover game, which was closed role madness, there were multiple townies with the same role. This was in order to punish a massclaim as two townies would counterclaim each other and confuse the town. A similar thing could be going on here as a contingency in case mafia waste their soup early and town feels like they can massclaim. Listo/c4 counterclaiming each other here might well have lost the game for us in some worlds.

Another option is that one of them has a role that can copy the abilities of another.

Nanook's flip also proves the soup is real. He had extra KP (a vigilante JOAT role), but no more than one townie died on any night before this. He is on a three action cycle, so we should expect to see 2 mafia KP on a night before Night 5 since he has vigilante.

Ergo the mafia's factional kill was taken from them as a result of the failed soup, and he used his vigilante shot to fill in for that night.

I am also considering the possibility that TH's flip was faked. His death was written on the walls far in advance, giving mafia plenty of time to prepare the death-godfather role or whatever it is. He also seemed weirdly okay with just flopping over and dying which further cements that possibility.

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 11:29 am Why not kill in the soup though

Given both dead townies flipped Bodyguard I'll venture that they might very well have.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Jul 26, 2021 4:57 am @c4e5g3d5 ... I think you might be right about Lime Coke. I just read his ISO and he is scummy. If I had to point something out in particular it would be his dealing with your slot. He wanted to bury Creature but that slowly dissipated for no apparent reason and in the face of youn subbing into that slot he has refused to pick back up the suspicion.

Also his post count deteriorated every day. As the game has gone on his wim to solve has dried up.

Maybe you are just that good...

My read on LC is that his logs are bad and his presence in the soup kill is good.

Essentially if you believe the soup kill is a genuine attempt at murdering town then LC is cleared, if you harbor doubts about how real it is then LC should be POE'd. I believe the soup kill is real (see previous analysis) so I am comfortable clearing LC here.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Jul 26, 2021 4:43 am So TripleHaven is in a funny spot.

He has clearly gone belly up and is outed mafia.

However he is so resigned he hasn't bothered to get to 10 posts. He is on one post.

Which means if he survives today he is a vanilla wolf.

Which is why I was trying to find a 2nd wolf earlier. I intended to do this closer to EOD. But I kinda wanna open discussion here and now because like worst case scenario is TH comes back and makes some posts oh well big deal right.

Am I crazy or is this a good opportunity?

TH is there for us tomorrow anyway right?

Do we get any true information via his flip?

We could go a long way to winning if we chop the a non TH wolf and leave a vanilla TH behind.

Do we have anything to lose by chopping someone else in the POE here first?

If we're worried about losing the game to a big soup kill then missing on our attempt to find the other wolf would make it vastly easier. In fact if they have four roles identified (Mac, LC, Dolby, HK), then a misexe today wins them the game.

10 players, exe a town goes to 9 players, TH + buddy soup 4 and kill 1 goes to 4 players with two wolves = parity. I am unwilling to throw the game like that and would rather take the safe option.

I sort of think we are running into a trap if we try solving based on flavor cards.

Guillo is not an idiot. He implemented a soupkill specifically to try to stop people massclaiming to break his game. I do not believe we will solve this game just by examining flavor cards.

All three of us made the same post at once lol.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Jul 25, 2021 10:19 pm
Scotty wrote: ↑Sun Jul 25, 2021 10:15 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Jul 25, 2021 10:13 pm I think this means we need to kill the wolf who has the soup here instead of TH?
I doubt it’s one ability. It’s probably shared as a team thing.

Like, if one wolf has that ability, is lynched D1, how broken is that
I don't necessarily agree tbh. I have seen a soup mechanic be the ability of a single wolf before I am sure. If the host considers it a mafia ability as opposed to anticlaim for balance purposes it makes sense.

Mafia also has the soup kill, a mechanic that allows them to kill players by correctly guessing their role actions. Scum has to submit only 1 of a player's JOAT's abilities for the soup kill to work. This is a mechanic that punishes claiming, there is no info of how many soup kill shots scum got, it could be 1 or it could be infinite. The soup kill is absolute and inevitable if a role ability is submitted correctly.

This wording seems to imply it's a factional thing at least. "Mafia" as a collective whole have a soupkill as a "mechanic" (not an ability), and it is meant to punish claiming for balance purposes.

In other words Guillo was at least worried the game could be broken if a massclaim happened so if it was tied to an ability and that mafia got exed D1 then the game would be over.

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Sun Jul 25, 2021 10:18 pm in my experience soup isn't an ability any given wolf has, it's an ability that is given to the wolf team as a whole.
like in the avatar game we could soup and kill and use our other actions. the drawback to soup was that it would be published by nanook in the thread who carried the soup

In Shadow Corridors it was one specific wolf that had the soup.

I missed playing with TH.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Jul 25, 2021 10:12 pm Actually the soup kill is probably on a cycle if 3. It wasn't triggered until d3. Was a day ability. Makes sense itd be the last used in a cycle. That it was on a cycle means it was forced d3 which explains why they took a risky shot with it. This also means it is back tomorrow. Given Martin and TH both went belly up we might actually have lost the game to the last wolf who has the soup in their joat set and already has a game winning soup.

I don't think we do. None of nanook, listo, c4, Scotty has claimed anything. Scum missed on my role during the initial soup and I have said nothing about what it actually is other than that it was a close guess.

Nevertheless if that is the case there is nothing we can do about it so it is correct to just play as though it isn't true.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Jul 25, 2021 10:09 pm or its on a cycle

If it's on a cycle we will find out soon enough lol.

Scotty wrote: ↑Sun Jul 25, 2021 10:05 pm
Alison wrote: ↑Sun Jul 25, 2021 9:54 pm It's worth noting that LoMo actually claimed a role in the thread before he died.

lost monkey wrote: ↑Tue Jul 20, 2021 9:34 am @hollowkatt @TonyStarkPrime If you have any important info please share it in a single post in your chat.
This is a blatant as day medium claim and LoMo is very clearly not the kind of player to lie about his role for gambit purposes.

Yet he was taken out during the night and not via soupkill. This is another reason to believe that the soupkill attempt is real and mafia legitimately does not have a soupkill left.
Unless as was suggested. Lomo was not the original target

The question is not why was LoMo nightkilled. The question was "why is LoMo not soupkilled" (or Mac, or HK, or Dolby).

Occam's Razor says the answer is that they don't have any soupkills left.

listo95 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 25, 2021 9:59 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Jul 25, 2021 9:54 pm N2 Honey gets Nook's card. Nook gets TH's card. Dolby gets Honey's card. Neither Nook or Dolby claim it. Honey didn't do it or she would have told HK in DVC. The default swap chance is very low so for all these to go off is odd.
N3 Nook swaps it with Listo and again succeeds against the odds.

TH therefore has Dolby's card?

Someone has an ability to make all card swaps succeed and used it n2? Possibly a passive of someone's?

@Dolby should we be concerned if TH has your card?
But we can only attempt to swap on odd nights. So something is amiss.

Could be a JOAT ability to make people swap cards without them knowing. Would be a good mafia ability. Make A and B swap cards, A accuses B of forcing a swap, B denies it and accuses A of forcing the swap, they thunderdome, two townies are at each other's throats.

The more I think about it the more I think that makes sense. Guillo went to the trouble of making a custom flavor card with pictures and labels for each person, he would almost certainly add roles that manipulate it to the game.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Jul 25, 2021 10:02 pm @c4e5g3d5 @Alison @Lime Coke @Scotty you all still have your original cards yes?

As far as I know I still have my original card.

It's worth noting that LoMo actually claimed a role in the thread before he died.

lost monkey wrote: ↑Tue Jul 20, 2021 9:34 am @hollowkatt @TonyStarkPrime If you have any important info please share it in a single post in your chat.

This is a blatant as day medium claim and LoMo is very clearly not the kind of player to lie about his role for gambit purposes.

Yet he was taken out during the night and not via soupkill. This is another reason to believe that the soupkill attempt is real and mafia legitimately does not have a soupkill left.

Why don't we just have listo claim the card TH gave him?

That seems like a pretty convoluted gambit for TH to run but I guess we have to take it into account. Under my solve it would still leave listo in the POE just at the bottom though. We would still have enough clears to solve the game even if it takes longer with listo going last.

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