The Syndicate

Have you ascertained the identity of the GD?

Grand Scheme wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 2:54 am Crazy stuff. I've screwed up WAAAAAAYYYYY worse as a host, believe it.

Was it a vigilante, or was it a busdriven target?

There is no value in pursuing this line of questioning. Zip it.

Martin, have you been offered a bargain/made a roleblock/confirmed the identity of the GD?

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 2:50 am Yeah I'm just sheeping nutella for the rest of the game.

[VOTE: polypies] aubergine

That was meant to be [VOTE: sabie] aubergine

I told GD to offer a bargain to Martin by the way. Who did you roleblock Martin?

I think GD should probably offer a bargain to Falcon tonight.

Yeah I'm just sheeping nutella for the rest of the game.

[VOTE: polypies] aubergine

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 02, 2020 10:55 am

MacDougall wrote: ↑Wed Dec 02, 2020 5:37 am If I am playing the way I am playing I am a townsiding mafia. The optimal thing to do is turn on me in the late game if I don't manage to get myself cleared somehow strongly. Let me townside and kill my team off then kill me. There's no pro town agenda behind tinfoiling me at this juncture.

I don't like this defense. I disagree with this reasoning because if we can elim a mafia over a townie then that's good for town no matter who that mafia might be "siding" with. Also a "townsiding mafia" could be an important mafia PR. This doesn't come from a towny mindset.

Nah it's onbrand for town mac. He used this logic a few times when I was hydraing with him in game 1.

112 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 02, 2020 10:53 am

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 02, 2020 10:50 am

112 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 02, 2020 10:47 am

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 02, 2020 10:45 am It bothers me that MR is the only person that thinks NIK could just be a townie in a new environment and is giving NIK way more of a chance than anyone else is. It feels like MR might have TMI about NIK being not mafia, so I'd actually vote MR over NIK right now (haven't completely caught up yet).

disagree

MR is the type who would state doubts as town

i totally believe this is a read he would have

and i'm sort of warming up to tp nik

If not MR or NIK, who do you suspect?

poly
nova
nanook to a degree
grand scheme to a degree
sig
kylemii
thundercat somewhat

do the qualifiers represent your mafia teammates?

(sorry I've been wanting to use this line ever since space invaders)

Speaking of Made: can anyone show me where Made softed tracker?

sig wrote: ↑Wed Dec 02, 2020 8:49 am Also for mafia secret chat my best guess is they're probably deciding game moves without outting themselves, meaning Jack would've probably been trying to save himself in the scum chat. So while it would've been more difficult I'm actually now thinking that the flip makes NIK look a bit better

The problem with this line of logic is that if NIK is also a wolf like we suspect, there's nobody else that the wolves can push on legitimately without totally outing themselves.

sig wrote: ↑Wed Dec 02, 2020 8:47 am Re Made and the Obliterator, that isn't really a mafia role first off, I'd view it as more of an evil independent and we don't know the mechanics of the role. They could easily fake a soup to clear someone. Now that isn't likely but could happen

Between the Obliterator stuff and the fact that they voted Jack, that gives them enough credibility that we can leave them alone for a bit. Re-eval if they drop off/don't do anything for a long time or if they don't get killed for too long, but I'm not remotely interested in exeing them today and probably tomorrow unless something changes drastically.

Made wrote: ↑Wed Dec 02, 2020 4:55 am

Made wrote: ↑Wed Dec 02, 2020 4:51 am Here’s a fun question I think that could lead to useful discussion just in case EOD doesn’t go well:

Who is Deep Wolf?
My money is on Mac

Note the nuance baked into this question y’all. I’m not asking who y’all think is the least trustworthy of whoever your towncore is. Im asking of your towncore, who looks worst after a hypothetically bad EOD?

Wouldn't that depend on the EOD itself? Like who got exed?

There's a lot of townie as shit people. If most of the townie as shit people are in fact town (ie. if our towncore is remotely close to correct), then there's going to be quite a few mafia in the POE. The level of consensus reached on reads and alignments this game suggests that mafia in the POE have to expand the POE. Conversely, mafia in the POE who cannibalize other POE members are only going to make themselves look worse by tightening the net.

Therefore Radish is town for pushing NIK and NIK is scum for pushing Mac. Unless our towncore is completely wrong and there's a bunch of deepwolves, but I'm not going there yet.

Actually nah I take that read back. I wanted to townread that for subbing in and immediately pushing consensus town (Falcon) but if Myo is scum they do have to expand the POE and Falcon/Thunal are easier pushes than me/nutella.

Myo is probably town.

@NIK Earlier, you said that you felt that CDC players would get there on you being town, because you didn't bus Jack and you have a strong meta for bussing as scum. But most of CDC is still scumreading you - your thoughts on why this is the case?

nutella wrote: ↑Wed Dec 02, 2020 12:03 am I've played with poly a couple times and don't find his quietness too surprising/it's even possible he forgot about the game, but think he's highly likely to be mafia here from his vote and positioning + not being towny + poe

I actually completely forgot polypies existed until people started wagoning them.

112 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 01, 2020 11:05 pm Martin looks good on the surface, but is he bringing the big ments?

I'm still townshielding him.

NIK wrote: ↑Tue Dec 01, 2020 7:23 pm

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 01, 2020 7:17 pm I don't think NIK's roleblock means anything either btw. He almost certainly wouldn't have carried the kill.

Well least we know allison was honest about it...But for all we know scum have that ability too
Allison is one of my bigger town reads tho but still gonna treat everyone with a bit of distrust

It isn't part of my role card, I got it from the GD.

tutuu hard spewed not-mafia

The summation of the shadow vote vs jailor decides debate is basically that the shadow voting system lets more people solve and contribute analysis, at the cost of being more corruptible. The jailor is beyond reproach, but only has the solving ability of one person. If you trust the towncore, you should probably lean more towards shadow vote (because if the people who have the most influence over the votes are more trustworthy, then the lower the downside of shadow voting is), and if you think there's a deepwolf in it, you should lean more towards letting the jailor make the call.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Dec 01, 2020 6:07 am

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Dec 01, 2020 6:06 am

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Dec 01, 2020 6:05 am Our daily exe has the potential of being influenced by the Mafia and 3p. The jailer is above reproach. Pretty basic to me.

ok. If that's the case then jailor should act as a vigilante and not try to townfirm people, right?

As in kill unless they're given a hell of a reason not to?

Yeah. Basically you pick someone to exe (either whoever the town shadow voted or whoever the jailor personally thinks is scum), and unless they claim one of the four roles above, you exe them. If they do claim one of those roles, let them prove it the next day.

Verifiable roles (that we know about):

Mayor
Leeroy
Gunsmith
Blacksmith

I think?

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Dec 01, 2020 6:05 am Our daily exe has the potential of being influenced by the Mafia and 3p. The jailer is above reproach. Pretty basic to me.

ok. If that's the case then jailor should act as a vigilante and not try to townfirm people, right?

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Dec 01, 2020 6:04 am If I was the jailer and I jailed someone and their role claim was vt or sketchy in the slightest i probably just kill them. Thoughts?

If I was the jailer I'd use the ability like a vigilante that misses if they shoot a verifiable PR. So yes.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Dec 01, 2020 6:03 am Optimally the jailer jails someone with a verifiable claim who is actually pretty towny and trustworthy so they can mutually clear one another fmpov.

We'd be giving up our daily exe to have this happen. I'm not sure verifying that someone who's already townie and trustworthy is, in fact, townie and trustworthy is worth surrendering a town KP.

I can see the reasoning behind "ensure that the people making the call on who to jail are 100% town rather than 95% or 90% town" though.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Dec 01, 2020 6:01 am

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Dec 01, 2020 6:00 am We can just treat this as Space Invaders 2.0. We agree on a jail pool (eg. NIK, sabie, whoever, whoever) and then the jailor targets whoever they want in that pool and makes a call based on their best judgement.

The jailer targeting scummy players isn't necessary because their role is equally strong at clearing town.

How does the jailor's power clear town?

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Dec 01, 2020 6:01 am

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Dec 01, 2020 5:58 am

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Dec 01, 2020 5:56 am Not til the obliterator dies. Voting analysis is kinda bunk.

Like I am torn between NIK was probably mafia even if Jack didn't know it and in this build with such good town players we may have just run up two of them or just deferring to jailer.

Voting records are about more than just interaction analysis though. There's stuff like "X had a weird progression on Y, they seemed to trust Y at first, but voted Y repeatedly over Z, who they claim to scumread" and so forth.

A compromise is that we NL and let the jailor do their work, but do phantom votes so people are forced to make real stands. Maybe create a pool of jail targets so it's many people solving and not one.

I don't think its necessary to do that. Its like ITA lists. If there is a deepwolf in the towncore the entire list can just be scummy townies and it makes the entire premise very weak.

How's that different from letting the jailor decide?

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Dec 01, 2020 5:59 am How exactly does that argument even make sense honestly?

Voting records aren't going to help the jailer anywhere near as much as personal night mason chat will. Voting records are effectively meaningless here.

Hm.

How sure are we that the mafia don't know each other? The mastermind wants to help mafia win, so they'd have told each mafia member of the other's identities in BTSC right? Like GS actually suggested that the mastermind do that in public, and I roasted him for it. So we know that the mastermind knows about that idea.

We can just treat this as Space Invaders 2.0. We agree on a jail pool (eg. NIK, sabie, whoever, whoever) and then the jailor targets whoever they want in that pool and makes a call based on their best judgement.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Dec 01, 2020 5:56 am Not til the obliterator dies. Voting analysis is kinda bunk.

Like I am torn between NIK was probably mafia even if Jack didn't know it and in this build with such good town players we may have just run up two of them or just deferring to jailer.

Voting records are about more than just interaction analysis though. There's stuff like "X had a weird progression on Y, they seemed to trust Y at first, but voted Y repeatedly over Z, who they claim to scumread" and so forth.

A compromise is that we NL and let the jailor do their work, but do phantom votes so people are forced to make real stands. Maybe create a pool of jail targets so it's many people solving and not one.

Made wrote: ↑Tue Dec 01, 2020 5:49 am

Made wrote: ↑Tue Dec 01, 2020 5:40 am

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Dec 01, 2020 5:15 am Im pretty convinced its just optimal to no lynch and let the jailer do the stuff tbh

Seconded
[VOTE: No lynch] aubergine
It guarantees civvies lead all “trains”, I don’t think I have better grip on things than the next town so I like the deferral here (for now)

Potential problem would be always no lynching loses us voting records that might help the jailer make decisions

This is my main issue with it.

I sorta want to just exe scummy players and not worry too much about interactions.

Where did Made soft tracker?

So the host read is that the mafia secret roles are really good to compensate for their setup disadvantages

all this talk is making me wish I'd randed obliterator

I'd have killed that role

I change my mind about Thundercat, I re-read the convo and it isn't actually a turrist tell

I think Mac is town and I also believe Thundercat is rhe Obliterator. Change my mind.

Thundercat wrote: ↑Tue Dec 01, 2020 2:46 am Is tutuu the obliterator?

no, but you are

Why js Flanders mafia? You suspected him for trying to save NIK by voting Jack, but Jack flipped scum.

Stupid Sexy Flanders wrote: ↑Tue Dec 01, 2020 2:08 am

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Dec 01, 2020 1:55 am Also while I have CDCers here I'm pleased to announce that I'm moving to Canada for college in January and have decided to take up watching hockey to smooth my integration into the country, does anyone have any tips for how to get started?

Cool. Which School?

Ryerson University.

Also while I have CDCers here I'm pleased to announce that I'm moving to Canada for college in January and have decided to take up watching hockey to smooth my integration into the country, does anyone have any tips for how to get started?

Mac actually thought the opposite, that Jack was the easy misexe wolves were jumping on to save NIK.

Stupid Sexy Flanders wrote: ↑Tue Dec 01, 2020 1:54 am

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Dec 01, 2020 1:46 am What do you mean by perfect wolf cover?

Well, you guys have a new group of players in this game.
Our numbers are smaller than yours.
When falc and I start railing NIK and make him a viable wagon, it's the perfect opportunity for syndiwolves to take advantage of what could be seen as an easy mischop. They all get solid deniability by just saying "these guys who know him pushed the wagon, and he did look scummy".

Thats what I meant.

Makes sense. So why didn't NIK go over?

What do you mean by perfect wolf cover?

Also I don't get why you claimed that nutella's roleblock did nothing. If you're town it gives the mafia information about what role you are, without helping town get there on you.

sabie12 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 01, 2020 1:21 am I don't want to give away my role but nutella you didn't do anything by role blocking me. If that's why you think I'm mafia then that's incorrect.

Though it would seem I'm not even worth the respect of anyone asking me anything or even calling me by my own name.

I think the NIK voters may be a good place to look but also there were people who voted off wagon perhaps to avoid suspicion all together.
I'm going to bed and I'll come back to this later

I'm sheeping the player who nailed a mafia member to the wall D1 and claims to have mech info that implicates you. It's not like we're hammering you 30 minutes into the day. If you wanna talk, talk away. What are your reads?

I trust Flanders, Falcon and to a lesser extent KZA. I know the CDC forum has a reputation for being able to read each other well and that's why they always win as town. I'm going to let you three talk to NIK and give us a solid baseline on what alignment NIK is while we dispose of sabie.

Cool. I'll instruct the GD to offer it to Martin tonight.

nutella you've ascertained the GD's identity for sure right?

Martin is good too.