The Syndicate

tbh only NAA strikes me as a mechanically minded player here.

Marmot wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 2:50 pm
Creature wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 2:44 pm Someone should be able to read DrWilgy here I guess. Just skimmed their ISO and it looks pretty lackluster.

Imo, every now and then DrWilgy does blatantly towntell in games, otherwise he's hard to read. I don't see that here, but he could still be either alignment.

It just occurred to me that the three lowest posters in the game: sig, Spacedaisy, and DrWilgy, are pushing Creature, and for slightly different reasons.

I feel like I'm being pushed mostly by everyone rn. Probably because I'm failing to get any concrete read.

Urist wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 12:32 pm
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 11:51 am
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 11:49 am
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 11:44 am
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 11:42 am Sorry, but this is objectively false, Nanook has the gun. LOL
And he has no way of making informed decisions unless people post and participate.

Also if you are gonna just spend the game quoting people and telling them "lol all you said don't matter since you don't have the gun", I'll just ignore you because that isn't useful and isn't funny.
My point isn't that your opinion doesn't matter, it's that... Assume Urist knows he's not getting shot, his posting so that people can read him better is really meaningless.
And you think he knows that because... ?
nanook knows my meta well enough to townread me here so posting more than the bare minimum just makes the thread more difficult to read.

Urist seems confident on this?

Marmot wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 2:43 pm I don't think that sig is necessarily town, but he has made more attempts at finding scum today than a few other players, namely Urist and DrWilgy

Spacedaisy falls in the same boat.

I agree that sig's attempts are not impressive, though I will acknowledge he has little to work with. On the whole, this game is very low-volume right now, and generating content seems to be difficult for a lot of people in this game.

I'd be ok shooting sig, I also think there are marginally better options today.

Okay. I think I'll give sig the medal of participation.

Someone should be able to read DrWilgy here I guess. Just skimmed their ISO and it looks pretty lackluster.

Marmot wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 2:40 pm
Creature wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 2:38 pm
Marmot wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 2:06 pm
Creature wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 10:32 pm Perhaps this might just be an easy game.

I'm okay with sig and Spacedaisy shots.

What about DDL?

Also, sig was the first person to dive into Michelle spew, why is he on this list?
DDL I kinda trust Dyslexicon's townread on him and also the fingersplints kill looks way straight to the face if it was done because she was wolfreading DDL.

I think sig's spew dive left me unimpressed tbh.

Michelle had 6 posts and 4 of them were void of any interactive content. There wasn't much to analyze.

Yep. Just checked Michelle's ISO and it was mostly minimal talking about mech and one pocket attempt towards NANOOK.

What's up with Urist?

Marmot wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 2:06 pm
Creature wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 10:32 pm Perhaps this might just be an easy game.

I'm okay with sig and Spacedaisy shots.

What about DDL?

Also, sig was the first person to dive into Michelle spew, why is he on this list?

DDL I kinda trust Dyslexicon's townread on him and also the fingersplints kill looks way straight to the face if it was done because she was wolfreading DDL.

I think sig's spew dive left me unimpressed tbh.

At least we got lucky with Michelle

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 12:47 pm Yeah this game isn't gonna be fun to play if half the plauers are gonna go "nothing matters just let nanook do everything"

I guess I gonna stop posting for today then and let nanook do everything.

See you next phase.

I know. Whenever I try to do something it feels like a waste.

One can pretty much talk about mechanics yet recognize wolves' easiest thing to do is talk about mechanics.

[VOTE: hollowkatt] aubergine

tbh

[VOTE: Spacedaisy] aubergine

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 9:54 pm I don't know how valuable night kill analysis is going to be - other than it's not a mechanically minded mafia team.

sig and Spacedaisy makes sense then

Perhaps this might just be an easy game.

I'm okay with sig and Spacedaisy shots.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 9:49 pm
Creature wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 9:11 pm
hollowkatt wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 8:53 pm
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 7:30 pm
Creature wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 7:22 pm
fingersplints wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 1:14 pm I think DDL is most suspicious so far today, for his comments in regards to falcon. It very much reads like maf throwing out some early confirmed town reads.

[VOTE: DDL] aubergine
fingersplints was mostly on DDL. If wolves bothered to ISO her then this might be a WIFOM kill.
DDL is 100 % town. I'd bet this and my three next games on it.
ok, so fingersplints was a dodge kill?
Looks very blatant if they killed her for suspecting DDL.
How do you read the MK?

I think it calls attention a lot to DDL because fingersplints' only perceptive stance was her wolf read on him.

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 8:53 pm
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 7:30 pm
Creature wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 7:22 pm
fingersplints wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 1:14 pm I think DDL is most suspicious so far today, for his comments in regards to falcon. It very much reads like maf throwing out some early confirmed town reads.

[VOTE: DDL] aubergine
fingersplints was mostly on DDL. If wolves bothered to ISO her then this might be a WIFOM kill.
DDL is 100 % town. I'd bet this and my three next games on it.
ok, so fingersplints was a dodge kill?

Looks very blatant if they killed her for suspecting DDL.

What do you all think about falcon btw?

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 7:36 pm
Creature wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 7:35 pm
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 7:30 pm
Creature wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 7:25 pm I remember reading DrWilgy, Marmot and Urist town from last EOD.
Why for Wilgy, and do you have a read on Guillo?
It's probably for a stupid reason. I need to recheck.

Guillo felt fine but he says he's pretty tricky as wolf.
What about Guillo's derp galore, any feels from that?

I thought him being stubborn with plans and complaining about NANOOK being the dictator felt town tbh

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 7:30 pm
Creature wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 7:25 pm I remember reading DrWilgy, Marmot and Urist town from last EOD.
Why for Wilgy, and do you have a read on Guillo?

It's probably for a stupid reason. I need to recheck.

Guillo felt fine but he says he's pretty tricky as wolf.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 7:30 pm
Creature wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 7:22 pm
fingersplints wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 1:14 pm I think DDL is most suspicious so far today, for his comments in regards to falcon. It very much reads like maf throwing out some early confirmed town reads.

[VOTE: DDL] aubergine
fingersplints was mostly on DDL. If wolves bothered to ISO her then this might be a WIFOM kill.
DDL is 100 % town. I'd bet this and my three next games on it.

Tempted to sheep you on this

falcon might be another townread I'm wrong

I remember reading DrWilgy, Marmot and Urist town from last EOD.

fingersplints wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 1:14 pm I think DDL is most suspicious so far today, for his comments in regards to falcon. It very much reads like maf throwing out some early confirmed town reads.

[VOTE: DDL] aubergine

fingersplints was mostly on DDL. If wolves bothered to ISO her then this might be a WIFOM kill.

Marmot wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 7:43 pm
Creature wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 7:41 pm Top priorities:

1. Be towny
2. Find town
3. Find wolf

Hi

Hey

I think you're town this game

Michelle wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 10:01 am I am not a mechanical player and if this game turns out to be a game of maths and probabilities then I will follow the plan approved by Nanook

Michelle wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 10:10 am
Creature wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 9:36 am
Urist wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 9:31 am Rethinking this. It might not be worth trying to save anyone other than Nanook. In terms of actual value gained by saving other people, we would need 3 successful saves in order to increase our number of miselims from two to three.

Given this, I'm tempted to say we should just do the d3 method because it's prob the only one everyone will be able to understand.
I hope NANOOK is a good wolf hunter then.

11 v 4 --> Mislynch --> 10 v 4 --> Odd-night nightkill --> 9 v 4 --> Mislynch --> 8 v 4 --> Even-night nightkills --> 6 v 4 --> Mislynch --> 5 v 4 --> Odd-night nightkill --> 4 v 4

I think it's gonna be extremely hard for town to win if all nightkills succeed.
Nanook is a good wolf hunter

This is the worst case scenario and I doubt it will be like this, so we should do this every day depending on the flips to check the gamestate.

I think defending Nanook and scumhunting in the classic way should bring us the win

I townread these two posts for some reason.

Top priorities:

1. Be towny
2. Find town
3. Find wolf

Bit stressed out. But I think I can play for now. I hope our wolf hunting is going well.

I'm probably looking at Dragon + Dyslexicon + one of the mech talkers (NAA/HK/Guillo/maybe Urist).

The easiest thing for wolves to do is to talk about mech. It's a little sad we focused so much on mech talking and couldn't even have a proper game start to have an idea of where to go.

How are we doing non-NANOOK saves by the way?

Urist wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 12:44 pm No. No claims ever.
If you tell the truth then the mafia can kill the people who haven't saved yet.
If you lie you're liable to be miseliminated for it and it doesn't help town anyway.

Lying/bluffing shouldn't be a problem. We should just treat this game as a vanilla game and wolf hunt normally instead of trying to read save targets.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 12:41 pm
Urist wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 11:03 am Alright so what we're doing is rolling 1d100, and if you get AT LEAST this high a number, you save Nanook:

Odd Nights
Code: Select all
# of Living Pandas   Save if you roll at least this number
10                   66
9                    63
8                    60
7                    55
6                    50
5                    45
4                    33
3                    25
2                    15
Even Nights
Code: Select all
# of Living Pandas   Save if you roll at least this number
9                    60
8                    55
7                    50
6                    45
5                    35
4                    25
3                    10
2                    1
Do we claim what we roll so we know who's on Nook? I'm not a big mech play guy

I think we shouldn't so wolves can't count how many saves we used.

I think if there are only 2 living giant pandas you always save NANOOK if you have any save left.

I think Marmot and sig can be town too

So I have for town:

falcon45ca
Marmot
sig
Urist

That leaves:

Dragon D. Luffy
DrWilgy
Dyslexicon
fingersplints
Guillotine
hollowkatt
Michelle
NotAnAxehole
Spacedaisy

sig wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 9:58 am
Creature wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 10:24 pm Alternatively we can nominate one player (on odd nights) or two players (on even nights) to protect NANOOK and everybody else rands their shots incase the nominated players happen to be wolves.
I like this plan maybe increase it by 1 just in case someone misses night action or mafia have some hidden block?

Trash pandas don't have a block assuming the setup is open.

Worst risk is we nominate a trash panda to protect NANOOK, in which case we'll rely on our randing.

Urist wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 9:31 am Rethinking this. It might not be worth trying to save anyone other than Nanook. In terms of actual value gained by saving other people, we would need 3 successful saves in order to increase our number of miselims from two to three.

Given this, I'm tempted to say we should just do the d3 method because it's prob the only one everyone will be able to understand.

I hope NANOOK is a good wolf hunter then.

11 v 4 --> Mislynch --> 10 v 4 --> Odd-night nightkill --> 9 v 4 --> Mislynch --> 8 v 4 --> Even-night nightkills --> 6 v 4 --> Mislynch --> 5 v 4 --> Odd-night nightkill --> 4 v 4

I think it's gonna be extremely hard for town to win if all nightkills succeed.

Urist wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 11:15 pm @NotAnAxehole do you know scum's chance of winning if they miss every kill?

A vanilla nightless town EV is calculated through [NUMBER OF TOWN PLAYERS - NUMBER OF MAFIA PLAYERS]/[NUMBER OF TOTAL PLAYERS] so an 11:4 nightless town EV would be: [11 - 4]/[15] = 46.67% or wolves EV = 53.33%.

Of course, the wolves EV should be slightly lower than that considering one of the town players is confirmed.

I think I'm only liking falcon45ca and Urist right now.

Alternatively we can nominate one player (on odd nights) or two players (on even nights) to protect NANOOK and everybody else rands their shots incase the nominated players happen to be wolves.

What about 70% chance of not saving NANOOK and 30% chance of saving NANOOK? That's like 3% chance of wolves winning if they shoot NANOOK in one night and 20% chance if they shoot NANOOK in eight nights.

Though, to be honest I'm not counting the double kills on even nights.

I confess NAA's plan looks a lot less complicated. Would have to calculate how many doc shots are going to be used per night though and also add the % for saving non-NANOOKs.

Mountainous hype

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 10:05 pm I'm gonna shoot at 24 hour mark every day, first person to complain about it or call it anti-town gets shot today

Not opposed to this. Waiting 48 hours for a flip feels unbearable.

I am tired of talking about mechanics, to be honest. Can we settle on a strategy that protects NANOOK and towny non-NANOOKs but saves enough shots for lategame?

We should still do some non-NANOOK saving because we're likely losing if we only protect NANOOK. It's 11 v 4 and wolves will get 3 kills every two nights.

I think players who expect to die early should be doing the saving, while players who expect to survive longer should try to save some of their shots.

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 9:45 pm Ok, so basic risk calculation indicates that if we all roll 3, and we only save on a 3 (1/3 of the time)... There's a 1.7% probability of mafia winning instantly with a shot on Nanook -> This isn't a viable shot for them.

If we maintain a ~1.5-2% chance each day (just need to calculate the numbers for each amount of pandas), every scenario, should be trivial...

That gives mafia about a 7% chance of winning in by day 4 (exclusive targeting Nanook), 13% chance with 8 days of targeting...

This is a very good number for town, and I think Nanook can kill mafia faster than this.. I have not calculated the probability of us running out of saves, but I would probably do that privately...

Nobody ever saves anyone but Nanook, and nobody ever claims saves.

Wolves can kill somewhere else and that can accelerate their win condition, especially because they're getting two kills in even nights. So we'll need some non-NANOOK saves.

Guillotine wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 9:46 pm
Creature wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 9:29 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 9:07 pm 95% of this game is just coordinating saves right?
I thought about something like this:

Odd-nights: wolves have one kill. Therefore, we nominate three trusty players to protect NANOOK and everybody else rolls a dice (1/3 or 1/4) to protect someone else they expect wolves would try to kill.

Even-nights: wolves have two kills. Therefore, we nominate four or five trusty players to protect NANOOK and everybody else rolls a dice.

I think one strategy is to make players who expect to die earlier to save first. I think the trusty players should be those most likely to be nightkilled early and the everybody else, instead of a dice, decides if they're likely to die (either to nightkill or lynch) and if they are they protect someone they expect wolves to nightkill.
You know what i think about plans? They help wolves, what if we just do whatever the fuck we want and be unpredictable, that way the wolves cant predict our moves, yah? Cool!

We run the risk of running out of saves though. It's better we coordinate so we can save some for lategame.

Also I hope this day doesn't become just mech talk. Other than the doc things, this game is pretty much somewhere between mountainous to nightless vanilla. We'll need oldschool wolf hunting.

Search found 257 matches