The Syndicate

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2018 4:21 pm
Iron_Dwarf wrote: ↑Sat Feb 17, 2018 7:05 am Other points:

- The end phase was as someone else said a hilarious 'clown fiesta'. So many people constantly switchting votes around.
- This makes me suspicious of Epi. He was one of the main instigators of this. He switched a lot. And he had some sort of theory on DDL and Dr. White but then not really sticking to it.
- JJJ was also constantly switching around to low hanging fruit, people who have few posts which can be related to anything (such as this thread having 85 pages now )
- nutella remains her opportunistic self and follows whatever vote seems fashionable.
How is switching votes around a bad thing? What do you think makes a mafia more comfortable: A static lynch or a dynamic lynch?

My theory on DDL and who now?

Mistyped, I meant the exchange on DDL/rdw/3J.

There could be all sorts of reasons for scum to want a dynamic lynch, f.i. getting people sidetracked if a teammate is suspected.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2018 11:55 am
gwilikers6 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2018 11:50 am This was my exact result btw: “**f*** *m ** - s*g”

I was drunk last night and working now so I haven’t put the slightest effort into decoding it. Have at it.
Soften 'em up. It corroborates I think Kites (?) who said they boosted sig's kill chance. I obviously didn't do that, so you were misdirected or something.

Sounds plausible and for me this means Kites is probably town. Can't imagine sig with his ability is scum.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2018 12:04 pm Like there is such a huge amount of wifom that can go into a rainbow list.

At least when people post what they think about other people you can analyse what they wrote.

I prefer a smaller list of people with reasons given for town/scum read.

Are people still feeling the same qay about Quin and nutella? It seems opinions have changed a little.

nutella wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2018 3:32 am why? and don't just say I'm "opportunistic" I've heard that one about 62973 times

Well that's because you are. :P

Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2018 5:17 am there's some uncontrollable variables at play of course, but chances are whoever @sprityo targeted last night was a civ.

Unless iron dwarf targeted me night one... or sprityo was misdirected, blocked or targeted a player who Epignosis also chose to protect night 2, in which case.... nevermind.

I have never targeted you.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2018 9:06 am So yesterday I sent a misdirect on Iron Dwarf then changed it to Bob later. But apparently Jack didn't process my change to Bob so I hit ID. Also the ability failed, most likely because of sword vs spear.

Stay tuned for more updates.

So my ability was misdirected?

[VOTE: rundontwalk] aubergine

Those long lists are great to see where a player is standing and all, but how is this different from 'salad' posts?

Kylemii wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2018 10:00 pm @nutella @Quin @MacDougall @colonialbob @Iron_Dwarf

did any of you move or remove my target last night?

No.

lapluie wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2018 10:14 pm Can someone explain to me the eggplant. .why are voting with an eggplant?

I didn't dare to ask this myself.

rundontwalk wrote: ↑Sat Feb 17, 2018 10:55 pm Iow, IronDwarf knows I'm town and can't be arsed to try

I did bring forth a reason for my suspicion.

I feel bad for Jack, he has his work cut out for him.

Other points:

- The end phase was as someone else said a hilarious 'clown fiesta'. So many people constantly switchting votes around.
- This makes me suspicious of Epi. He was one of the main instigators of this. He switched a lot. And he had some sort of theory on DDL and Dr. White but then not really sticking to it.
- JJJ was also constantly switching around to low hanging fruit, people who have few posts which can be related to anything (such as this thread having 85 pages now

)
- nutella remains her opportunistic self and follows whatever vote seems fashionable.

Dr. White wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2018 11:41 pm Look at those pushing the nonsense draft stuff too particulalry nutella, looking for oppurtunistic arguments to keep pushing this narrative on me

I also still have no idea why this was pushed so heavily. I'm with you on this one.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2018 11:15 pm
Iron_Dwarf wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2018 11:04 pm
rundontwalk wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2018 4:30 pm IronDwarf because of his silly vote against me showing he didn't bother to read full exchange with JJJ
Can't really see anything substantial there. And this is not really a defense.
RDW's vote on me was tacked to a strong suggestion that he had role-based information against me. Soon after he admitted he only bodyguarded me, meaning the vote wasn't driven by real stuff [beyond his desire to test me, presumably]. Given that he was open about this and that you didn't seem to notice that, what is your perspective now about his vote for me?

He's still all over the place and never really addressing points raised against him. Case in point:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2018 11:33 pm
rundontwalk wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2018 11:33 pm Cool story, bro.
There are times when the shtick is not advisable. Here is one such time. You should address the shit.

This is my last post before the vote. I already said I was a bit iffy on colonialbob. And because I don't feel I am out of the woods yet this is partly motivated by self preservation. And I don't believe Dr White to be scum, the most important case is the draft thing and that is just nonsense in my book.

[VOTE: UNVOTE rundontwalk] aubergine

[VOTE: colonialbob] aubergine

Still some are going on about Dr White's behavior in draft. Seems like a stretch. Focus on something more substantial than random noise in a 50/50 choice I'd say.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2018 9:37 am [VOTE: Iron Dwarf] aubergine

This came up and I liked the points made, especially Nutella's. Then I looked at his ISO and didn't particularly hate it but didn't love it either. Day 1 is mostly smashing Epi for the don exercise thing, then on day 2 he argues a bit more but gets off Epi's back. Coulc be a calculated move to get out of a lynch nobody is interested on anymore. Then a vote on RDW out of nowhere. Lots of "salad", I think. He is contributing, but not in a way that gives me a good vibe.

Right now I think I have much more civ suspicions than bad ones, so this one is one of the slightly bad ones.

Epi is still suspect in my book. Didn't like the day 1 gambit at all. The rundontwalk vote was motivated. And why single me out for random votes when both rdw and JJJ amongst others did just that?

rundontwalk wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2018 9:06 pm I'm not gonna waste my time defending myself against silly accusations that I'm scum when I know I'm not scum.

Y'all are latter day Birthers and history will absolve me

Really substantial.

rundontwalk wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2018 4:30 pm IronDwarf because of his silly vote against me showing he didn't bother to read full exchange with JJJ

Can't really see anything substantial there. And this is not really a defense.

Kites wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2018 4:41 am JJJ and nutella I’ll answer you both later, I’m on mobile and in school at the moment

anyways
VOTE COLONIALBOB

There are fancy vote tags!

Following JJJ's logic on me I want rundontwalk to explain his behavior. He's not really adding much of value to cases. Hardly any reads at all, no explanation on his JJJ vote.

[VOTE: rundontwalk] aubergine

Also curious about colonialbobs behavior. He seems eager to join a bandwagon on me, then asks dunya who he should vote for, followed by a Kenway vote.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2018 5:10 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2018 5:07 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2018 5:04 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2018 5:04 pm dunya I've had enough of your insistence that I haven't given a reason for townreading you when I have done so multiple times now
less dunya more hunt
ok. have you explained your vote on Iron_Dwarf? Is it related to the Dr. White draft thing or something else? Should I ISO him?

My vote is on Quin for now but I'm open to other options, especially if he comes back and provides more content this phase
Dr. White is my top suspect. Iron_Dwarf is a pet suspect. They are unrelated. I don't have the time right now to provide a substantive case, but I may later tonight. Succinctly: I see a number of reads he has made which only barely qualify as "reads". Either no concrete stance is taken or a stance is supported with total vagueness. There's a lot of potential for fake hunting.

I always keep my posts concise. A wall of text is not my M.O. I disagree that I did not take concrete stances. For instance, I did take a position on Epi on day 0.

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2018 5:07 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2018 5:04 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2018 5:04 pm dunya I've had enough of your insistence that I haven't given a reason for townreading you when I have done so multiple times now
less dunya more hunt
ok. have you explained your vote on Iron_Dwarf? Is it related to the Dr. White draft thing or something else? Should I ISO him?

My vote is on Quin for now but I'm open to other options, especially if he comes back and provides more content this phase

Nutella, you are acting really opportunistic. You were on to Quin and suddenly after JJJ tries to start a hunt on me you switch priorities.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2018 4:12 pm [VOTE: Iron_Dwarf] aubergine

rundontwalk wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2018 4:44 pm
gwilikers6 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2018 4:43 pm
rundontwalk wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2018 4:41 pm AUBERGINE

[VOTE: jaggedjimmyjay] aubergine

I know what you did last night
Please share with the class.
JJJ deserves his chance to wiggle out of this one

The both of you just throw out a vote without any sufficient explanation and people are not calling you out for this?

I haven't seen JJJ's case on me yet.

gwilikers6 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2018 5:22 pm
dunya wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2018 5:18 pm who else found Iron_Dwarf's answer about who Jay is making cases about with ping worthy for the fact Dr. White was not mentioned? Possible w/w if we take into consideration Dr. White's random drafting of Iron_Dwarf at the wrong time, then backing off him to Marmot in the end, when I_D was still available?
Ok, so I can't be bothered to go back and look this up, but I've seen it referenced a few times. Did Dr. White try to draft Iron Dwarf at a random time when it was not his turn to choose, and then a long time later draft a different player? Cuz if that's the case I don't see there actually being much to it cuz the rest of us were just picking based off who was active at the time anyway. Am I missing something?

There is not much else than this to it. It's seeing way too much in nothing. We are talking about someone who had a 50/50 choice in a confusing draft phase. This is textbook gaslighting.

[mention]dunya[/mention] In understand that you want to pressure Quin, but it seems you're suddenly off the nutella wagon this way. Why?

Rabbit probably was a safe kill for the scum, as he was inactive and no one was going to protect him and all. That's the only reason I can think of at least.

For the rest, some gaslighting going on. Don't know why [mention]nutella[/mention] and [mention]dunya[/mention] were going on two pages back about the last two draft picks and last minute switching between two players in what was a messy phase.

[mention]MacDougall[/mention] , why are you not using the fancy vote tags?

dunya wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 3:22 pm
Iron_Dwarf wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 3:09 pm You are very analytical and putting people under a lot of scrutiny. Town.
Name 3 people Jay has put under a lot of scrutiny. Go.

Homework! For instance, exchanges about Epi, analysis of Colin, and yourself.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:46 pm
Iron_Dwarf wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:45 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:32 pm
Iron_Dwarf wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:31 pm Well I believe that based on my reads I regard dunya as a riskier prospect than Colin. In rainbow terms green vs. green/orange.
What do you consider the most suspicious thing about dunya?
In short, it's hard to get a read on dunya. Her post count is insanely high and because of this she is steering a lot of the conversation. I feel like people are a bit too eager to give her a free pass as (super) town.

I'd like to point out again that this is a minor concern that makes me put her in green/orange territory. I'm not reading her as scum atm, but she's not out of the woods yet.
How do you read me?

You are very analytical and putting people under a lot of scrutiny. Town.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:32 pm
Iron_Dwarf wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:31 pm Well I believe that based on my reads I regard dunya as a riskier prospect than Colin. In rainbow terms green vs. green/orange.
What do you consider the most suspicious thing about dunya?

In short, it's hard to get a read on dunya. Her post count is insanely high and because of this she is steering a lot of the conversation. I feel like people are a bit too eager to give her a free pass as (super) town.

I'd like to point out again that this is a minor concern that makes me put her in green/orange territory. I'm not reading her as scum atm, but she's not out of the woods yet.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:26 pm
Iron_Dwarf wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:22 pm
Kylemii wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 12:56 pm
Iron_Dwarf wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 4:50 am Voted for ColinIsCool in the poll. He feels like a genuine town. Can't really point to anything suspicious in his post history. Better safe than sorry. If dunya is indeed civ, she is a valuable asset, but you still run the risk she might be scum. Leaning towards the former, but it remains risky.
wouldn't the same thing be true about Colin?
Dunya is quite prolific and dictating a lot of where the discussion goes.

And as I said, I cannot point to anything in Colins history thats really suspicious.
sorry, I'll clarify. don't you also run the risk that Colin is scum?

Well I believe that based on my reads I regard dunya as a riskier prospect than Colin. In rainbow terms green vs. green/orange.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 12:56 pm
Iron_Dwarf wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 4:50 am Voted for ColinIsCool in the poll. He feels like a genuine town. Can't really point to anything suspicious in his post history. Better safe than sorry. If dunya is indeed civ, she is a valuable asset, but you still run the risk she might be scum. Leaning towards the former, but it remains risky.
wouldn't the same thing be true about Colin?

Dunya is quite prolific and dictating a lot of where the discussion goes.

And as I said, I cannot point to anything in Colins history thats really suspicious.

Marmot wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:02 pm
Iron_Dwarf wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 10:08 am
dunya wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:13 am
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:10 am
dunya wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:03 am an RYM don won't choose me over JJJ because I am a bad scum player. I've won twice as scum ever, I believe
JJJ, Mac, Kenway, Kites and Iron Dward said they would. If there are any baddies among them they are likely lying. But what about the civs?

Also Kites and Mac would pick you over Jay, Kenway might, and Iron Dwarf would pick you both. Only gwilkers would pass on you. Rest would either randomize or didn't respond.
I'm asking them to be serious and not just choose me because they missed me and I'm way cooler than Jay. Like, be a don for 15 minutes and go through the player list and really decide.
Every RYM person is equally cool in my book.
Does that make me cool?

If you're on RYM yes. If you join RYM just now, also yes.

dunya wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:13 am
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:10 am
dunya wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:03 am an RYM don won't choose me over JJJ because I am a bad scum player. I've won twice as scum ever, I believe
JJJ, Mac, Kenway, Kites and Iron Dward said they would. If there are any baddies among them they are likely lying. But what about the civs?

Also Kites and Mac would pick you over Jay, Kenway might, and Iron Dwarf would pick you both. Only gwilkers would pass on you. Rest would either randomize or didn't respond.
I'm asking them to be serious and not just choose me because they missed me and I'm way cooler than Jay. Like, be a don for 15 minutes and go through the player list and really decide.

Every RYM person is equally cool in my book.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 9:16 am
Iron_Dwarf wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 4:49 am About Epi's poll. Personally I picked the 4 because I know them from RYM, the motivation was to get the team back together and didn't have a lot to do with strategic considerations. Wondering in how far others did so as well. Plus, the few scum there are in the list can distort it in a significant way already. And lastly, this is all hypothetical and you can't really say that people would have picked those persons when being the don.

Therefore, I don't really see a whole lot of use for the list.
Ok if I see one more person saying the list thing is worthless because it's hypothetical I'm gonna flip.

This is like when people in real life say polls are meaningless because they didn't get personally interviewed.

There is math here, people. A real mathematical thorem that says when you pick a sample size big enough, you can actually infer things about real life with a controllable degree of certainity.

My point is that this thought exercise is based on shoddy foundations. And this is not comparable to e.g. a political poll at all.

Inclined for now to give Epi the benefit of the doubt because preventing a lynch on Day 1 where civs are more likely to die is a cogent argument. But he remains on my radar.

Voted for ColinIsCool in the poll. He feels like a genuine town. Can't really point to anything suspicious in his post history. Better safe than sorry. If dunya is indeed civ, she is a valuable asset, but you still run the risk she might be scum. Leaning towards the former, but it remains risky.

About Epi's poll. Personally I picked the 4 because I know them from RYM, the motivation was to get the team back together and didn't have a lot to do with strategic considerations. Wondering in how far others did so as well. Plus, the few scum there are in the list can distort it in a significant way already. And lastly, this is all hypothetical and you can't really say that people would have picked those persons when being the don.

Therefore, I don't really see a whole lot of use for the list.

No lynch is a surprising outcome to me. Epignosis was not entirely truthful about his powers, but I guess this was some sort of crazy gambit as I already pointed out earlier. Still wondering why he chose to execute the stop, because people were building cases on nutella and Quin. Sure, it may be better to not lynch on Day 1 because a civ is more likely to be targeted, but as far as Day 1 cases go it was more than nothing.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 1:19 pm
colonialbob wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 11:22 am @TonyStarkPrime reads?

Dunya Town
JJJ scum
Epi ???
Colin null
Kyle Mafia but I can’t explain it
DDL maybe scum
Missing players scum
Nutella Town
Quin town
Kenway town
LongCon scumish

People were tossing around the word salad a lot earlier in the thread, all these comprehensive (rainbow) lists should be seen as salad too then to be consistent.

I still haven't really heard Epignosis talking about nutella.

colonialbob wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 12:38 pm
Iron_Dwarf wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 7:36 am
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 7:35 am
Iron_Dwarf wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 7:32 am
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 7:17 am I'm on Page 34 and I hate the discussion about Epi's exercise. Hate it hate it hate it.

Can you guys be just a little patient and let him finish it so we can judge whether the results are good or not? If they are not you can vote for him all you want. But voting him now because you can't see the usefulness of something that has been advertized as having a hidden goal is moronic. Voting for him because he is risking being night killed is triple moronic. For all I know this exercise could end in day 1, when every active player answers it. Or he could be night killed, but then that means he was... a civ?

You don't lynch someone to prevent mafia from killing them, that's almost as bad as the idea that a civ has to resign themselves to get lynched.

If Epi is a wagon I will make whatever vote is necessary to prevent him from being lynched. Because right now my curiosity wants me to know how this exercise ends.
Epi's gambit just feels like unnecessary risk to me. Why are you so adamant on continuing with it? Just because you are curious?
Risk?

What does it risk?
Throwing away a really powerful ability on day 1 when we do not have any conclusive reads.
@Iron_Dwarf please explain why a lynch switch is such a powerful civ ability

If you have obtained good information about the alignments of different players you can prevent a misguided bandwagon forming on an innocent player.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 12:33 pm
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:23 am- And the lynch manipulator issue, which can be explained by two possibilities. One, Epi is lying, and if so I want to see why. Probably linked to the exercise. Second, he is telling the truth, and if so, we are powerless to stop him. So I'll just ignore it, wait to see what he is cooking, and keep playing the game as if this wasn't a factor.
agreed

There is only one way to find out the second point (lynching). And as in regards to the first point, it's better to be safe than sorry.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:34 am Is there a potential civ reason for Epi lying about having a lynch switch?

Maybe to get people riled up and forcing their hands?

rundontwalk wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:30 pm
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:28 pm Actually no. Screw this. I'm not voting someone with zero posts. I never do that.

[VOTE: Kenway] aubergine

Will wait to see how this ends.
Throwaway vote and unwillingness to make a stand despite on last page saying you would save Epi is noted

This does not help me in shedding my suspicions of DDL at all.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 7:42 am
Iron_Dwarf wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2018 8:00 pm Random tidbits about people. If people want me to elaborate on some, please say so.

MacDougall - Feels shady, but he had the problem of being away on vacation so may not have the time to properly explain himself
Dragon D Luffy - Feels shady, like throwing bits around and see what sticks
rabbit 8 - He is quiet and didn't have a valid excuse to be so
epignosis - His behavior feels a bit off
Long Con - Feels like he's flipflopping a bit on his reads
rundontwalk - #ballstothewall

As much as day 1 is the traditional crapshoot, I will go with voting Dragon D Luffy for now.

VOTE DRAGON D LUFFY
OMGUS aside, this list feels pingy specially since he picked exactly one inactive player to call bad, ignored the rest, and posted some sentences on others that have very little meaning. "his behavior feels off" and "he's flip-flopping" hardly mean much. Ironically, the case on yours truly is the best one of this list.

These were one sentence summaries of my first hunches. And with more information that came in I elaborated on epignosis just now.

dunya wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 7:37 am
Iron_Dwarf wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2018 8:00 pm Random tidbits about people. If people want me to elaborate on some, please say so.

MacDougall - Feels shady, but he had the problem of being away on vacation so may not have the time to properly explain himself
Dragon D Luffy - Feels shady, like throwing bits around and see what sticks
rabbit 8 - He is quiet and didn't have a valid excuse to be so
epignosis - His behavior feels a bit off
Long Con - Feels like he's flipflopping a bit on his reads
rundontwalk - #ballstothewall

As much as day 1 is the traditional crapshoot, I will go with voting Dragon D Luffy for now.

VOTE DRAGON D LUFFY
6 calls for shadiness. Not 1 civ cred. Not 5 scum names. 6. That is relevant to me.

Iron_Dwarf was prodded by Epi, Iron_Dwarf bites back without flinching. Cowards hide, civs don't got nuthin' to hide. I'm curious about your rundontwalk read and what it means and how you're applying #ballstothewall. I'm assuming it's in negative light, if the gist of your list is anything to go by so walk me through it.

Sorry to disappoint you and maybe I had to be clearer, but the rdw read was meant as a joke as he's the one who's using that hashtag all the time.

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