The Syndicate

Well I did a terrible job by the end of making myself clearly town. I just couldn’t after hard reading guillo town

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Feb 23, 2022 7:59 pm I blame @NotAnAxehole exclusively

I blame myself exclusively lol

Start crying

I'm going back to work. Right now I lean Urist, I think Creature is being manipulative here. Bussing Guillo and falcon serves exactly the purpose for this moment, to say what you are saying now.

However, Urist wanted to avoid shooting falcon and let Dunya replace him. If Urist knew falcon would have been shot would that have changed it.

I still lean Creature wolf atm, but fuck if I feel confident of anything after all is said and done.

Just look in the Hall of Fame at older games and I'm sure you'll find a town game I won

It's been a long time since I played, and I am under a deadline so I'm not going back to search up my past games. My proudest scum win was DeathNote, And I dunno about town wins, there are plenty, but I feel like I am better wolf than town usually because I am clueless.

Creature wrote: ↑Wed Feb 23, 2022 5:22 pm

Creature wrote: ↑Tue Feb 22, 2022 9:24 pm

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Feb 22, 2022 9:22 pm Idk game is hard I feel like if I went back and read isos I could probably sort it but I dont have that kinda time

I've been mostly trying to show I'm town lately. I think bussing Guillo and falcon wasn't needed here if I was wolf and I felt I also had a genuine reaction to Marmot and NAA dying because I was too busy protecting you and nobody else bothered to protect them.

Does anyone still doubt I'm town?

In fact, I really disliked the fact you acted so indignant in the last 24 hours about the fact no one protected Marmot and NAA. They weren't confirmed town or anything, there is no reason I should have known they were going to be targeted that night. It feel like fake indignation to me frankly.

I do, because I don't know which of you is town right now. Urist last post looks very towny to me, even though I can't figure out what she is saying exactly.

But that could be faked, most hosts provide copies of Town role PMs to the wolves to ensure their private PMs won't be used for scum hunting.

Meeehhhhh.

I don't really see what you are getting at. The best I can figure from that is the possibility of faking a claim to try and clear yourself, but that's a risk you run with any claiming. So whatever it is you are pointing to, I'm not seeing it.

I am going to leave the decision of whether or not I tell him my actions up to Nook. Because I have no reason to trust either of you at this point. If Nook wants me to share, I will do so with no qualms at all. If he sees a reason we shouldn't, I trust his opinion on it.

Lol, you’re wrong and if Nook shoots me, the civs lose. That’s just the reality here. I’m the easiest person to paint as bad right now, but I’m not a wolf.

I’m town. I can’t show you much, except my behavior with Guillo wouldn’t make sense as a wolf because it would be ridiculously obvious interactions with a teammate.

I think the only reason I’m still alive after Nook blatantly said he thought I was civ is because I was so far off on my reads and they could easily make me look suspicious.

I don’t have a freaking clue if it’s Creature or Urist. I don’t even want to guess frankly after what just happened with DDL.

The only thing I can say with certainty is that if you shoot me the wolves win.

If you want a full account of my actions I’ll share.

Urist wrote: ↑Tue Feb 22, 2022 8:05 pm

Creature wrote: ↑Tue Feb 22, 2022 7:19 pm tbh I'm leaning at the last trash panda being Urist. Spacedaisy feels like a rollercoaster of reads and lostness, while Urist seems to have enough knowledge of the game and using it appropriately to further their wincon.

scum have missed 3 kills in a row, i'm cleared based on that fact alone lmao

Could you clarify what you mean here? How does that figure?

Thanks. I looked at her post but I didn’t see it in there. So he did move to Creature. I don’t think Creature is bad based on that, and the fact that he voted there on the day Nook said he was going to shoot the top vote earner. Plus, he was trying to sway me away from voting Falcon and onto Urist.

I’m back to DDL based on Guillo’s vote behavior on the day it might have mattered where we voted.

[VOTE: DDL] aubergine

Are there no saved polls? Meh, never mind that train of thought.

I can’t win with this headache, it just will not stop.

I’m going to look at the votes actually cast in the last poll because something DDL said was interesting to me. During that day Nook said that he would shoot whoever had the most votes. That’s the day Guillo tried to get me to vote Urist with him or Creature with him and DDL instead of voting Falcon. But did he ever actually move his vote to Creature after I did?

I’m town folks.

DDL, you made a list but even the people you supposedly removed from the list in your posts you shaded them. It looked bad to me.

I wasn’t trying to get your killed DDL, I have literally zero power.

I don’t think it’s Creature, but I don’t know. I got back a couple hours ago and I have a headache again so I’m feeding my cats and going to bed.

I think it’s probably between Urist and DDL imo.

Falcon and Guillotine both came at me at different times. They have both voted for me. Take that as you will, also I was coming for Falcon when Guillo talked me off of him.

My interaction with Guillo was pocketed town talking to a wolf who had her fooled.

That’s all I’ve got tonight. I won’t have much time tomorrow either as I’ve got to work all day to pay the bills again. Travel took up two whole days I could have been working. I’ll be back tomorrow, but don’t expect ISOs because I don’t have the time for it.

I find it interesting that DDL’s assessment didn’t really narrow anything down.

I’m leaving for my nine hour drive shortly so don’t expect much from me today.

If a falcon/Wilgy pairing, then Wilgy was distancing from falcon. I find that pairing unlikely.

I lean towards Urist being town because of Guillo's treatment of him, but I don't know. It looks to me like Guillo was trying to move me away from falcon though, because he had pocketed me but didn't want to sheep me.

I could see DDL possibly, I suppose. I don’t know. My heads all over the place right now.

Most confident in [VOTE: falcon] aubergine atm.

Sheeping! Damn autocorrect.

Suggested sheepish DDL and voting Creature, I mean.

Creature wrote: ↑Fri Feb 18, 2022 12:08 pm Only seeing falcon wolf right now.

[VOTE: falcon45ca] aubergine

The other wolf probably is between DDL and Space.

I assume you are basing this upon the vote yesterday?

It would seem a bit obvious of me and Guillo if we were partners all that time and I hard defended him like that.

It would seem a bit obvious of Guillo if DDL is his other wolf to have suggested sheeping you.

I am returning to what I suspected before, which is Falcon, before Guillo talked me off of that. I don’t know what to do with his treatment of you and Urist. It’s weird that Urist still suspects you. I don’t know what to do with that either.

I think Falcon is a safe shot, for whatever my thoughts are worth at this point.

I think I’d maybe look at Falcon today, if I were in your shoes Nook. And maybe interactions with Guillo because I don’t recall how he was with DDL and Wilgy

Ugh no I typed there. He was willing to vote Creature and actively pushing Urist

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Feb 18, 2022 4:40 am Don't everyone find the last two mafia at once

I’m sorry, it’s a combination of two things for me:

1. I was so far off on guillo
2. I have a migraine and a ton of other things on my plate the last 24 hours.

2 things I noted about this Guillo flip

First, he was unwilling to vote Falcon even though most of us have him in our PoE

Second, he willing to vote Creature and actively pushing Creature.

I don’t know how to interpret it because I clearly don’t know Guillo at all. He bussed Michelle and then tunneled Dizzy and HK, both civs.

Would he hard bus again? Or would he avoid? Did he say anything about Wilgy?

I’m going back to sleep again to try and shake my migraine.

After my epic misread of Guillo I can’t say much of anything.

Maybe I'm just not up with the lingo though, I haven't played in a couple years. spewing town is a TMI tell, correct? As in, you are saying Guillo is calling Urist town because he knows he is town?

Creature wrote: ↑Wed Feb 16, 2022 3:48 pm

Guillotine wrote: ↑Wed Feb 16, 2022 11:10 am I want Urist head but for some reason you guys rather keep her around, my only hope is that Nanook sheeps me this time.

The second next best thing is Creature, if you change your mind about Urist, i will switch there. @Spacedaisy , you asked why? ISO me again.

[VOTE: Creature] aubergine

I feel like this is spewing Urist town.

I don't understand how it is spewing town if he wants to vote Urist...

If you flip bad, I would say that Urist is probably town though, given that you just tried to make Guillo look guilty of having TMI based on Urist's alignment that we don't even know yet.

Creature wrote: ↑Wed Feb 16, 2022 4:06 pm Maybe I'm less sure at Spacedaisy. Guillo looks horrible from his post-D1 pushes being mostly on town. falcon also doesn't seem any worried about this LyLo so he's probably wolf here. Spacedaisy looks slightly better from pushing falcon, but also her POE seems pretty lazy.

What he looked to me was like someone tunneling, which is more likely to come from a town than a wolf. If our votes counted for something, it might be a different story, but in this setup I think it benefits wolves a lot more to keep us from getting any kind of slim PoE, because it lowers the chance Nook might shoot one of them. Tunneling won't help that. Especially given Nook hasn't seemed interested in his tunnels after his D1 Michelle kill. In the end Nook makes this call, not the vote. You can bet the wolves recognize that and have to play to that setup. Normally, big tunneled cases might convince lazy players to vote someone. Here it doesn't matter who votes, it only matters what Nook thinks and wolves can't predict that if Nook doesn't say anything. Which he rightfully hasn't. So the best bet for a wolf team is keeping spreading as much suspicion around as possible rather than tunneling one or two people they know are going to flip town. This is part of why Guillo looks town to me, among many other things.

Could he have me pocketed? It's not beyond the realm of possibility, but I don't believe it is the case. I think he is genuinely town. I have to be able to start from somewhere, so I'm going to trust my instincts and read on this. If he fooled me, kudos to him.

Regardless, in the end what I believe about Guillo doesn't matter. Nook's opinion on him does.

P.S. Thanks for the compliment on my skill, even if you were trying to shade me with it.

Guillotine wrote: ↑Wed Feb 16, 2022 1:55 pm

Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Wed Feb 16, 2022 1:49 pm I mean, I believe we have three wolves among Creature, falcon, Urist, and Wilgy. I like the odds of shooting any one of those. I just feel more comfortable with either falcon or Creature.

Guillo, I will look back at your ISO to refresh on why Urist. I just have to work again today so I won't have as much time.

I leave to work in less than an hour, I don't have time either lol, I have to get ready.

Oh I wasn't asking you for anything. I was just saying that today I'll be less present, but that I would look back at your ISO to see what your case was.

I found two things.
1. Urist didn't scum hunt much during Day 1, it was pretty much all mech talk. I agree, but it was also the best plan put forward and one that was less easily manipulated by wolves.
2. You think Urist's reads look like TMI (I think that is what I'm seeing)
3. You think Urist is pocketing Nook

I frankly don't know which of Wilgy or Urist is bad. However, I think falcon and Creature appear to be in most everyone's PoE. That is why I feel better about one of those two. Sure, Nook could shoot Urist, but if we are wrong and it's Wilgy, then isn't that pretty much the game?

Meh. good luck Nook, lol. Seriously, I don't envy you this decision. But I think we have a slim enough PoE that our chances are decent to hit a wolf today.

I mean, I believe we have three wolves among Creature, falcon, Urist, and Wilgy. I like the odds of shooting any one of those. I just feel more comfortable with either falcon or Creature.

Guillo, I will look back at your ISO to refresh on why Urist. I just have to work again today so I won't have as much time.

I realized I didn't do an ISO of Creature. I was actually trying to avoid going over that again, but I probably will in the morning. It's too late now.

I don't think it's likely my opinion will change, but who knows. I didn't expect such a huge swing on DDL either.

Anyway, I'll vote with DDL on Creature for now.

In fact...

[VOTE: Creature] aubergine

Oh, I missed what you said about sheeping DDL. I'd probably be most confident of that option.

Why are you so confident of Urist, Guillo?

Guillotine wrote: ↑Wed Feb 16, 2022 3:06 am I'm talking like forming a voltron matters in this game. It's hard not to approach this game as a game of mafia even though it really is not.

I think treating it like normal mafia is the only thing we can do. Playing it like Urist won't help put wolves in uncomfortable positions and possibly force them out of hiding. we need to give Nook something to work with ad I think the best way is to treat it like a normal scum hunt.

I could maybe be convinced of Urist. I'm obviously wrong about either Urist or Wilgy if my town reads are correct.

Guillotine wrote: ↑Wed Feb 16, 2022 2:50 am

Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Wed Feb 16, 2022 1:12 am Because I think that trying to paint it as some calculated kill for a reason is silly. It was N1, there were hardly a lot of hard suspicions out there. Splints was quiet enough that she likely wouldn't be protected or hard town read by anyone so she would be a safer kill for them. This seemed really straightforward to me. Guillo obviously thought the same, and I like that look on him because it doesn't look like a wolf trying to draw connections to anyone they can.

Creature is doing exactly that right now.

I know.

Alright, to recap, here is my trust list in order from top (person I'd be least likely to shoot if I were Nook) to bottom (someone I would shoot most quickly if I were Nook)

Guillo
DDL
Wilgy
Urist
Creature
falcon

I'm moving my vote to [VOTE: falcon] aubergine

DDL

I didn't like the way he approached falcon. And the fact the only response falcon gave him was a joke, but DDL treated it so seriously. It just felt like a real reach to me.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 8:58 am

Urist wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 8:44 am

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 5:07 am I don’t remember what we did mech wise last time, but I think it worked-ish. Except Nut shot the wrong people.

I think maybe we coordinated enough to have the shooter covered, and then could rogue protect likely other targets of it felt necessary.

Scum won by shooting nutella on n7 so clearly it didn't work lol
I don't think you came up with a system in the last game.

I mean they won because town misyeeted almost every time. They were going to hit nutella sooner or later, it was just a matter of making town use all their resources.

Iirc maybe nutella could have survived a day longer depending on luck, but at that point, it was mainly on town for letting the situation get that risky to begin with.

So yeah we don't win this game just by keeping nanook alive, we have to take down mafia before they kill all our doctors.

That is a town look right there.

He also did point out early on that Sig was probably his normal town meta. This could be because he knows, but it looks more natural to me. Also a town look.

It looks as thought DDL flip flopped back and forth on Creature throughout the game. That is a town look I think as well.

He also did come in saying Michelle looked bad as well. In fact, the shot came only two minutes after DDL posted that. I have to think that had some influence whether or not he expected it would. It is a town look.

Yeah... I think that read through has changed my mind completely on DDL.

I'd move him up to a town read even I think.

Wilgy

Wilgy doesn't ever make reading him easy, that's for sure, lol.

I have felt for most of the game that I don't have a solid reason to remove him from the PoE and left him in for lack of a reason not to. And I was afraid to let him pocket me because he was sheeping me early in the game. However, now having read falcon, I feel like Wilgy is actually offering something insightful despite his gimmick. I would move him to a slight town read. Still not eliminated from my PoE, but I'd probably be looking somewhere else for the shot today.

Falcon

When I read the quick vote on DDL, followed up by the response he got from DDL, my first thought was is this distancing?

But what I find interesting in that exchange is that falcon doesn't even acknowledge what DDL was saying about him. That seems odd to me. it reads like someone who doesn't want to attract attention to themself.

Then I read on and realized that falcon hasn't really contributed a lot. Like... he asks a question of someone once in a while, usually generic like, "what do you think of this person?" or "who do you suspect?" But then falcon only lists suspects with no real reason to suspect any of them. Even weirder is pairing me and Creature as teammates.

I would definitely leave falcon in my PoE and would even say this is a wolf read.

The question is, if falcon is bad what might that say about DDl? Just something to ponder.

Urist next

Mech talk can be easily faked. But Urist came up the only plan with a high enough degree of random element to make it very difficult for the wolves to predict or manipulate it. This is a good look as opposed to some who proposed plans that would go through our protects very quickly, even though they look safer. Because of this plan, I suspect some of us are still holding a good number protections.

Urist wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 9:31 am Rethinking this. It might not be worth trying to save anyone other than Nanook. In terms of actual value gained by saving other people, we would need 3 successful saves in order to increase our number of miselims from two to three.

Given this, I'm tempted to say we should just do the d3 method because it's prob the only one everyone will be able to understand.

This post does not look as good. It effectively says don't protect anyone but Nook. Allowing all the wolf nightkills to be successful if we were to follow this. This is a wolf look.

Urist wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 12:44 pm No. No claims ever.
If you tell the truth then the mafia can kill the people who haven't saved yet.
If you lie you're liable to be miseliminated for it and it doesn't help town anyway.

This insistence against claiming is a good look. The less information the wolves can take in about the protections we use the better. Even lying probably isn't worth it.

Urist wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 6:52 pm i think the only fair way to do this is to kill people alphabetically.

Was this a joke?

Urist wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 12:32 pm

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 11:51 am

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 11:49 am

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 11:44 am

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 11:42 am Sorry, but this is objectively false, Nanook has the gun. LOL

And he has no way of making informed decisions unless people post and participate.

Also if you are gonna just spend the game quoting people and telling them "lol all you said don't matter since you don't have the gun", I'll just ignore you because that isn't useful and isn't funny.

My point isn't that your opinion doesn't matter, it's that... Assume Urist knows he's not getting shot, his posting so that people can read him better is really meaningless.

And you think he knows that because... ?

nanook knows my meta well enough to townread me here so posting more than the bare minimum just makes the thread more difficult to read.

I hadn't felt like Urist was being difficult before and was confused why DDL felt like Urist was, but I can see it here. This is not a town look. Conversation about suspicions is a good thing.

Urist wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:02 pm

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:00 pm If some/most of you guys could give four person POEs, that would be super helpful for me to organize how everyone is viewing the game. Or your confident lock town reads, either is helpful. Tyty.

the problem with giving a public PoE is that it tells the mafia whether they should gamble on a nanook shot tonight.

Ah, this seems to be a difference in play approach to the setup. I don't agree with this decision though. I can see why people think it's bad. However... I think it is more likely town. The more town can get suspicion, even mild suspicion on more people, the better. That said, I still think discussing our suspicions is good for the sake of nanook making a more informed decision.

Urist wrote: ↑Sun Feb 13, 2022 5:12 pm

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Feb 13, 2022 4:46 pm But yeah I'm likely shooting dizzy today since they never showed back up

i doubt dizzy is scum tho

Town look. Wolves are going to be more interested in finding suspects rather than looking for town. Could be TMI I suppose, but it would make no sense for Urist to kill him after this. I mean honestly the dizzy kill still baffles me in general. But I don't know.

Urist wrote: ↑Mon Feb 14, 2022 10:17 pm @NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME i'm pretty sure ddl & wilgy are town, so if you're right about spacedaisy then the scumteam is just guillotine, creature and falcon.

I'd be interested to know why you think DDL is town.

I don't overall feel like Urist has moved on my list either, I don't see them as lock town or anything, but it's slight town read. The hardest part to overlook is the post about protecting others. It read like Urist didn't thnk we should use protects on anyone but Nook and that could lose us the game I think considering the tactic they are taking. That is what keeps this from being a solid townread.

Alright, I've looked over to Guillo to see if I may feel differently about him. Here is what I've got:

First, on Day 1 there were so many mistakes. Just so many. I get he could be a wolf faking them. But some of them just would even open him up to suspicion rather than getting him a town read. Specifically where he put forward a plan that would sacrifice Nook, which would result in an immediate loss, but didn't seem to realize that. I don't doubt Guillo's ability to lie here, I just get a genuine vibe from these.

Guillotine wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 1:53 am I would never kill fingersplint if I was a wolf, I would kill me, I would kill DDL if they are town, Dyslexicon if they are town or at the very least a loud voice. That kill was simply a doc dodge, but that's good because those slots like that are PoE so the wolves are helping us box them in with those kills.

GOOD JOB TRASH PANDAS! GOOD JOB! I Approve lol.

This post looks civ to me. The thing in this game is that they don't have to convince the most people, they have to convince one person. And they have literally no real tangible influence in Nook's decision. So this game even more than others, I think the wolves need to keep us from whittling down the PoE. Because otherwise, they are a higher risk that Nook taking a shot in the dark will hit one of them. The fact that Guillo recognized it was a doc a dodge, called it that and moved on looks Civ to me. Because I think that trying to paint it as some calculated kill for a reason is silly. It was N1, there were hardly a lot of hard suspicions out there. Splints was quiet enough that she likely wouldn't be protected or hard town read by anyone so she would be a safer kill for them. This seemed really straightforward to me. Guillo obviously thought the same, and I like that look on him because it doesn't look like a wolf trying to draw connections to anyone they can.

Guillotine wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 4:25 pm

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 4:10 pm We aren't making decisions at the end of the day other than where and when to protect. It's not on us specifically to "remove" another player from the game.

I keep forgetting that my vote is worth a damn in this game and that the only thing that wolves have to do in this game is to pocket Nanook and doc dodge every night.

But I think Michelle is in her wolf meta, how long has it been since the game started? 20 hours? with only 4 posts? Michelle has a post volume wolf tell, I remember I had to bus her for it in Spider-verse because others knew about it and knew I knew about it and I would look suspicious if I didn't bring it up. It's how Mac and I keep catching her at Mafia Universe. I think Nanook knows about this too but knowing him, he will probably let her live just because I'm sussing her but mark my words, I host a lot for her and her town meta vs her wolf meta difference is that STARK!

Given the flip, this is a town look.

Alright, I'm not quoting more, I feel pretty confident in my read of Guillo.

The things I mentioned above, plus the fact he has a high degree of OMGUS suspicions (not all, but the majority), and the fact he has tunneled so hard. All of these would not be beneficial to a wolf in this set up, I don't believe. And they read very town to me.

Guillo is town.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Feb 15, 2022 6:03 pm I'm feeling poorly today so gonna shoot close to eod.

I’m glad. I haven’t been awake long, and I’m about to go to dinner so that will let me do ISOs when I get back.

Creature wrote: ↑Tue Feb 15, 2022 6:04 pm ftr I no longer townread DDL and think he could be wolf. I'm not sure if I have any strong leaning read right now. Spacedaisy is the best read I have rn because I believe she isn't really trying to be influential at all.

Clarify please. You’re reading me wolf or town?

Wow, what a spread. This is interesting.

Oh, almost forgot. [VOTE: DDL] aubergine