The Syndicate

(especially since you keep talking about balance and urist has the non-balance claim)

Seanzie wrote: ↑Thu Apr 01, 2021 3:18 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Thu Apr 01, 2021 3:12 pm (I'm also slightly disturbed by the fact that sean has done zero evaluation on urist after his like two posts but I don't know how to voice that but I just wanted to see if anyone else noticed it)

And you have?

Unless there is a viable alternative explanation for the no-kill night, Urist is more-or-less confirmed.

Yeah but I've been saying this for six days and you changed your mind very quickly. And I've done more evaluation on Urist than you have today, that's what's weird to me

i said false enough but I meant something else but I don't know what I mean; I think fine enough. maybe.

Seanzie wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 10:59 pm

Urist wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 10:50 pm

Seanzie wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 10:43 pm

Urist wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 10:41 pm Also because if I vote TSP and he ends up being town I'll feel like a jackass.

But I do think that Nanook had a role cop, and I think that if the scum inventor had given it to him then Made would have just claimed that.

There are a lot of other things as well, including the fact that I don't think Chop v TSP was bussing, Poison's posts were pretty scummy, the KZA shot doesn't make sense from her perspective, TSP has appeared relatively townie the whole game, and Seanzie's arguments today are uninspiring.

at least I made arguments. I repped into a hard game to rep into, with a slot that was not set up well and I tried.

Yeah sorry about that if you're town. You're putting way more effort into this game than I am, which is why I feel bad that I'm the one who has to make this decision.
Honestly I'm trying to look for reasons for why your slot would be town but I've got nothing. Can you point at anything you've done this game that you wouldn't have done as scum?

I wouldn't have resisted an Alison yeet two days in a row if I was a wolf when my scumbuddy was up for a yeet.

I shot down TSP's idea about ending the game yesterday rather than today since F4 is better for scum than F3. If I was a wolf, I would have taken my chances in F4 if it felt like town would have been up for it.

I also pushed hard for claims, which I may not have done as a wolf since the claims helped box scum in.

I also probably wouldn't have cleared Marmot based on balancing if I was a wolf since he was pretty heavily suspected and could have been a mislunch if I hadn't committed to always lunching TSP before Marmot two or three days ago.

thing one is flat false in general, but I've accepted that in any world you believe it
thing two is flat false for you
things three and four are false enough

(I'm also slightly disturbed by the fact that sean has done zero evaluation on urist after his like two posts but I don't know how to voice that but I just wanted to see if anyone else noticed it)

Urist wrote: ↑Thu Apr 01, 2021 11:03 am i might actually end up voting for tsp here. i feel like i'm voting seanzie just because i don't want to be wrong on tsp. but certain things just don't add up

I acknowledge a bit of confusion. Poison's day 2 interactions with jack/chop are boggling if they're w/w/w. The poison/syn claim is likewise confounding. If you want to add on Sean having bad arguments too, okay, go for it. Maybe you have a few other areas too. But I think there's no way that that world makes less sense than the things necessary for me to be a wolf here. I would have had no reason, were I a wolf, to sandbag a confirmable claim (by marmot and thread patterns). I would have had no reason to interact with Chop as I did. I wouldn't have 1200 posts and more mech work put into this game than anyone else and be on a wolf team that's still botching claims on like day 7. You'd have an out of tilt kill count. Not even counting the little things, like a kill pattern that seems designed to get me chopped, or Made's claim fiasco, or whatever.

I'll be around for a few hours; let me know if you want anything.

(also if you vote for me chop wins and that's 100% an AtE but I don't want that to happen)

shot in arm

don't say anything until I get a shot i don't have time right now

kinda wish I could do nothing tbh

Urist wrote: ↑Thu Apr 01, 2021 9:33 am I slept on this. I'm starting to feel like Seanzie would have better arguments if he were scum. He'd have come into the day prepared and knowing who he'd be going after, etc.
At the same time, TSP has done basically nothing but respond to Seanzie all day. I think he'd be doing more work to convince me if he were town.

arguments apply in the other direction too. also, I did iso sean and point out a few things, it's not like I did nothing :P

which will be after I finish paper and then take shower

will be here after I get shot

Urist wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 9:02 pm @TSP Where did you imply that you might be the reason for nanook's result on DOOM? I can't see it on d3.

I don't know if I said anything directly but I followed him around on d3 and remember that I told you that I doubted that he was Westin when you told me there was a simplest option or something. I'll look for more details

if jay went to careful precision to balance every single faction in an open game with claims allowed that's a way bigger design snafu than what you're suggesting but whatever

Like what I'm saying is the implication does not rely on TSP claiming redding. It's also seperately unreasonable, but hindsight is 20/20 and I understand what your justification is for your premises. Again, I don't care.

I counted 6, sorry. Still the easiest probably. Redding coming close.

whatever, put all this aside. the logic isn't good, you should know it's not good, I don't care

hubo have the easiest win con, there were two of them and two of bos

like this isn't even a "you really want to tell me" because it's confirmed to be true

Seanzie wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 6:36 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 6:26 pm

Seanzie wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 6:18 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 6:08 pm

Seanzie wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 6:07 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 6:03 pm (like besides the fact that clearly you're examining claims and not actual alignments)

Was there any reason to doubt the claims of anyone town there? Of course the scum in the group were lying, but none of the town were, unless you want to try to tell me Urist is not the role he claimed.

jack who you said was probably confirmed town because "balance"

Yes, IF you were indeed Redding, then Jack would have been clear there. Now it is clear you AREN'T Redding, you're a wolf. You say you study math, but you seem to be having trouble with a pretty basic "if ..., then ..." statement.

The clear semantic implication is if I claim redding then jack is probably clear, but I'll let the whole thing go if you can explain how Jack is probably clear at all

Wastelanders, NCR and BoS are the big blue factions, all of which have the most dangerous win conditions. If all the green factions with easier wincons had 2 people in them, it would make sense for the blue factions (like BoS, who has to take all three bad factions - aka has the most dangerous enemies) to have 3 people. You really want to tell me that BoS and Redding having the same number of people in them makes sense from a balancing perspective, given BoS's enemies?

all the other factions have two. so yes.

Seanzie wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 6:18 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 6:08 pm

Seanzie wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 6:07 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 6:03 pm (like besides the fact that clearly you're examining claims and not actual alignments)

Was there any reason to doubt the claims of anyone town there? Of course the scum in the group were lying, but none of the town were, unless you want to try to tell me Urist is not the role he claimed.

jack who you said was probably confirmed town because "balance"

Yes, IF you were indeed Redding, then Jack would have been clear there. Now it is clear you AREN'T Redding, you're a wolf. You say you study math, but you seem to be having trouble with a pretty basic "if ..., then ..." statement.

The clear semantic implication is if I claim redding then jack is probably clear, but I'll let the whole thing go if you can explain how Jack is probably clear at all

sean read the first two days and apparently took diligent notes on chop's tactics

and marmot too frankly

Seanzie wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 6:07 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 6:03 pm (like besides the fact that clearly you're examining claims and not actual alignments)

Was there any reason to doubt the claims of anyone town there? Of course the scum in the group were lying, but none of the town were, unless you want to try to tell me Urist is not the role he claimed.

jack who you said was probably confirmed town because "balance"

again

gonna hit my head against a wall

(like besides the fact that clearly you're examining claims and not actual alignments)

ergo your logic sucks

Seanzie wrote: ↑Sun Mar 21, 2021 8:30 pm So right now we have:

Jackofhearts2005 - Authur Pendragon of BoS
Long Con - Unspecified vaniila of Wastelander
Marmot - AHS-9 of Hubologists
MartinGG99 - Louis Salvatore of New Reno
Poison / Syn / Seanzie - Sheriff Marion of Redding
Spacedaisy / sprityo - Joshua of BoS
TonyStarkPrime - Unknown
Urist - Vice President Carlson of NCR

Assuming all these are true, this gives us faction sizes of:
Wastelanders - 5
NCR - 3
BoS - 3
Arroyo - 2
Redding - 1
New Reno - 2
Hubologist - 2
JJJ - 1
??? - 1

TSP I think just softclaimed Redding, or if not, he isn't paying attention. If TSP is indeed Redding, then for balance purposes I would say Marmot is definitely clear, and Jack is also probably clear? So in that world, LC is the clear vote, with a very small side of Jack.

If TSP is not redding, then whatever faction he is in I think would need to be examined. LC probably still questionable.

this is the only other thing I have to point out about sean's iso

Ok, it is clear based on present information that it was to the advantage of the scum team for chop to get chopped on day 6 and grogu to get chopped on day 7. I think this was clear from the get go, but at least the grogu one was a little more up in the air? Maybe there were worlds where you're concerned that sprityo was a wolf, but even then you give him the opportunity to prove himself with the vig shot, idk. The main person pushing those things in the thread was Sean, and the logic he was used to do so is flawed at best. Now, there are problems with the use of present information to judge past circumstances, but it is clear that me and Urist were arguing for the kills that were optimal for the town and that Sean was arguing for the kills that were optimal for the wolves

like you tell grogu to hardclaim, grogu claims some semblance of information on sprityo, now boom sprityo is most suspcious no further questions.

Seanzie wrote: ↑Fri Mar 19, 2021 2:40 pm @TonyStarkPrime @Urist @sprityo please claim alignment ASAP.

@Grogu please hardclaim your role ASAP.

Grogu wrote: ↑Fri Mar 19, 2021 3:12 pm

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 19, 2021 3:11 pm Interesting. So we got Jack + Sprityo + Urist (potentially) + Kylemii as BoS.

There's one scum in there Imo. Maaaybe 2 but I doubt.

I'm eager to hear @Grogu's claim.

I think I know who it is. I need Daisy/sprit targets

Grogu wrote: ↑Fri Mar 19, 2021 3:12 pm

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 19, 2021 3:11 pm

Grogu wrote: ↑Fri Mar 19, 2021 3:09 pm I ask you marmot to get daisy slot to claim first.
I have a result and know who they targeted but that’s it. I want to hear her claim and result for each night more importantly last night.

Daisy got replaced by Sprityo.

They claimed Brotherhood of Steel as an alignment.

I don’t care about that.

sprityo wrote: ↑Fri Mar 19, 2021 3:13 pm grogu buddy i've been pretty transparent today on who i could be, just give it some thought and all your questions are answered. However I wont tell you any other night actions for the time being

Seanzie wrote: ↑Fri Mar 19, 2021 3:25 pm I'm starting to suspect Sprityo the most. Grogu should claim alignment, and then I think Sprityo should claim.

look at that progression

Seanzie wrote: ↑Wed Mar 17, 2021 12:39 am

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 17, 2021 12:36 am

Seanzie wrote: ↑Wed Mar 17, 2021 12:02 am

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 11:56 pm There's also the issue that Epignosis basically has to kill Marmot (if hubologist) if we never yeet Alison.

If Epi gets a kill at some point, he can just kill Alison himself (why would he kill Marmot over Alison here?). It is possible that some hubologists will die just by NK and such, but if there comes a time where it is very clear that Alison needs to die to stop Epi from scumsiding, then we can yeet her then. It makes no sense to do it until that point though when killing her sooner only limits our options.

I think if Epi was aware of having the ability to kill he would've let us know or used it already. But I'm no mech expert. Or maybe he does, and by voting Alison he can safely kill Chop Chop without worrying much about his own wincon because Alison, as the Slaver, has a vest. She'll just eat up the bullet without worry if she hasn't been attacked yet.

I forgot that Alison has a vest, so I give you that, but Epi gets a new power every night, right? And the power is not disclosed to him until he chooses how to "level up", so he doesn't know what ability he will have tonight.

i wonder if sean caught onto this way faster than he should have. no discussion of epi's role preceded this.

never mind

oh it was about urist

Seanzie wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 2:34 pm

Marmot wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 2:30 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 2:27 pm FTR, how long were people holding off on yeeting ChopChop because they thought he might be the only BoS member and ergo locktown?

I figured his role would eventually resolve itself, and it finally has.

One issue I have is that he seems to have been extremely skeptical of my slots claim, which would maybe make sense if he was what you were thinking, but that doesn't jive with other things he has said. I am still kind of thinking he is just town, but him trying to get us to vote Alison doesn't sit well with me, especially again, with the fact that he probably isn't what you were thinking.

this is ... /after/ arguing that we shouldn't chop Alison? Pronoun game and all i guess

to be clear, knowing that chop was not frank is just a matter of having read the thread, it's not TMI. But Given that chop is not frank and is in fact essentially vanilla, chopping him there is just bad policy and the logic as stated does not hold

Seanzie wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 11:11 am

Urist wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 11:02 am ideal play might actually be to execute alison here. we're at odd numbers so if she has a shot left and decides to shoot a Redding player we lose an execution.
if we think alison might have a shot still, we should execute her now.

The Big Bad Frank Horrigan may also have a shot left, so yeeting Alison would be gambling that Frank does not have a shot left, but Alison does, whereas in all other ways that Frank or Alison could have a shot left, yeeting Alison is suboptimal.

given that chop was not frank /and Sean already indicated in the thread that he knew that chop was not frank/ this logic looks outing

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Mar 30, 2021 9:58 pm

Seanzie wrote: ↑Tue Mar 30, 2021 9:56 pm What do you do IRL TSP? I'm seeing you talk about math problems in your ISO, and earlier you mentioned Kant, so I am curious.

I'm a student. I do a whole lot of things usually, but I go on spring break in two minutes so hopefully I'll have an opportunity to catch up on sleep

played minesweeper for literally my entire spring break

vote: Sean. Feel like marmot's work applies. No conspiracy theories necessary to justify this. easy way out.

I think the counterfactual is that 1) I would have made sure to extract a hard claim from Nanook on it and 2) Made would have had a claim ready to go because the scum team knew what it was up against and also probably 3) Made claims the invention to not get chopped but that might be too sketchy
but YMMV

Urist wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 8:48 am The obvious explanation for TSP knowing about Nanook's mech info is that the real scum inventor gave Nanook a check n1.

I was trying to figure out why he didn't go with this one

just in case anyone is not familiar with twitter lingo

subtweet: a post intended to cast shade at a particular person without naming that person. in this case, the post in question is the one that sean asserts I would not make if I were town because it might distract from nanook's info which I don't know exists yet

and like it's obviously a DoO subtweet

Seanzie wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 5:09 am

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 5:06 am you are taking one post where I say that people read the setup and your claim is that if I were town I would instead know that nanook had information and then, instead of encouraging people to read the setup, be completely content with the fact that most people hadn't read the setup and were saying nonsense things

There is no indication in thread that anyone is having trouble with the setup... except perhaps DoO.

the previous post (literally the exact preceding post) is about rej not understanding, the previous day is about a whole lot of people not understanding.
the end of day 2 is basically just a bunch of misunderstanding about a red check that appears out of nowhere

also neglecting that other people said what amounts to the same thing on the same page

like aside from the morton's fork phrasing of the argument here

you are taking one post where I say that people read the setup and your claim is that if I were town I would instead know that nanook had information and then, instead of encouraging people to read the setup, be completely content with the fact that most people hadn't read the setup and were saying nonsense things

like ok jack's in wolf chat, we've played a billion games, he probably said the way to get TSP chopped is to be belligerent and get him flustered, idk.