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town:Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:06 am @juliets @TonyStarkPrime @G-Man I would love to see your lists in the format Jay have. Gut solve the whole game right now.
agree on gut. But I think Jay’s recent sorting list seems mostly accurate to how I feel on the rest of the crowd— something that would be WIFOMy but wouldn’t be the case if he were scum.Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:01 am My gut says if we’re being lead down the wrong path, it’s by Jay and that if someone is putting in the right effort at the right times to avoid lynch, it’s Sloonei.
I have a history of pushing on these players when they’re townies.
I thought Jay was obviously bad the last time I saw him being bad but I was already dead by then. He was pushing bad cases. Idk of the TH one counts. (Frustrating when townies allow themselves to be lynched. We can’t all be me.)
I’m gonna have to do my own isos n shit.
fwiw I think you’re still a good lynch option but this post is so towny that either it passed through an active scum committee or you’re townG-Man wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:54 am Over the course of the game, Ted has brought me up as a scum read. It’s persistent but not quite tunneling. I don’t believe I have ever played a game with him before, so he doesn’t know me and I don’t know him. Those of you who know me know that I speak truth when making posts like I did earlier in the game. As a civvie, I play a nakedly honest game. Even as a baddie, there are lines that I will not cross.
Several of the remaining players know this. Ted does not. This suggests to me that Ted is on his own. If he were on Team Master, he should have at least one teammate telling him that it’s unwise to keep pursuing me as a lynch option. Nevertheless, he persists. To me, that means he is either a civvie, 3P, or the Anti-Monitor.
The rest of Team Anti-Monitor was Radish, sabie, and sig. None of those three have what I would call an extensive playing history with me. That could explain why Ted has been so persistent- none of those theoretical teammates would know to tell him to stand down.
But that’s all theoretical. I’m going to look at Ted’s voting history and see if it’s Anti-Monitor-compatible. I’m also going to go back and look at Dom’s sus lists and how they developed. Civ Dom is a powerful resource, and I trust his input to help me start putting some pieces together.
If Tranq is scum it’s 1-2-1, 1/3 from both top levels.juliets wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:20 amHow do we know there weren't 2 people at level 3 that were bad - one from each team?TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:14 am Napkin math: 3 people at level 1, we’ve decided that at least one is scum. Roughly 1 in 3 if only 1. At level 2, 6 people, 2-3 scum. better odds.
You left Epi off the “in Jack’s poe” count.Michelle wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 2:09 amI think it's half of a thought ...can you show me why are you clearing anyone ?Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 1:40 amWait wait. 11 players. 3 vs 1 vs 1 vs 6.Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 1:37 amThere are only 5 civies left. Add you and me.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Mar 14, 2020 11:52 pm I believe Sloonei and juliets are civilians. That hasn't always been the consensus. Those who disagree: say your piece and I will listen.
Is there only one civilian in Speed, Tranq, Tony, Epi, Ted?
Six civies. So two in Speed, Tranq, Tony, Epi, Ted, Michelle and GMan.
Is that reasonable?
Copy pasted from the poll:
Epignosis
juliets
Jackofhearts2005 - green peeked
Michelle - in Jack's poe
JaggedJimmyJay - Jack reads him civvie in the quoted post.
Sloonei
G-Man - in Jack's poe
speedchuck - in Jack's poe
tedxtr - in Jack's poe
TonyStarkPrime - in Jack's poe
Tranq - in Jack's poe
Fill up the blancs with your thoughts on everyone please.
no.Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 1:40 amWait wait. 11 players. 3 vs 1 vs 1 vs 6.Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 1:37 amThere are only 5 civies left. Add you and me.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Mar 14, 2020 11:52 pm I believe Sloonei and juliets are civilians. That hasn't always been the consensus. Those who disagree: say your piece and I will listen.
Is there only one civilian in Speed, Tranq, Tony, Epi, Ted?
Six civies. So two in Speed, Tranq, Tony, Epi, Ted, Michelle and GMan.
Is that reasonable?
I think Sloonei’s 3P.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Mar 14, 2020 11:52 pm I believe Sloonei and juliets are civilians. That hasn't always been the consensus. Those who disagree: say your piece and I will listen.
Shoulda gone with Clint BartonJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Mar 14, 2020 5:43 pmStop being at the bottom of the alphabetTonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Mar 14, 2020 5:41 pmyou didn’t check meJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Mar 14, 2020 5:31 pmIf I recall correctly, the only person I didn't get to originally with Mac was Turnip Head. And I got there later.TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Mar 14, 2020 5:27 pm Also you never finished this activity with Mac. You’re now going back and doing it with Sabie to little result. Why?
I have no idea what the results will be when I assess sabie interactions or any other interactions. The point is to see what I find. I'm not surprised there isn't a ton of conclusive stuff available for sabie given that she was blended into the thread, didn't say a bunch, and died via night kill. Nonetheless, it's advisable to try. If I can make time I mean to look at sig as well.
you didn’t check meJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Mar 14, 2020 5:31 pmIf I recall correctly, the only person I didn't get to originally with Mac was Turnip Head. And I got there later.TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Mar 14, 2020 5:27 pm Also you never finished this activity with Mac. You’re now going back and doing it with Sabie to little result. Why?
I have no idea what the results will be when I assess sabie interactions or any other interactions. The point is to see what I find. I'm not surprised there isn't a ton of conclusive stuff available for sabie given that she was blended into the thread, didn't say a bunch, and died via night kill. Nonetheless, it's advisable to try. If I can make time I mean to look at sig as well.
I hear the case, but I don’t see the evidence — Ted exclusively hunting the anti-monitor and then denying it.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Mar 14, 2020 5:22 pmShow you what exactly?TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Mar 14, 2020 5:21 pmshow meJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Mar 14, 2020 5:16 pmIt's a huge backpedal. Look at me with a straight face and tell me that's not about hunting for the Anti-Monitor. "I haven't accused anyone!" is an ugly look. Don't thank me for coming to your Ted Talk.
show meJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Mar 14, 2020 5:16 pmIt's a huge backpedal. Look at me with a straight face and tell me that's not about hunting for the Anti-Monitor. "I haven't accused anyone!" is an ugly look. Don't thank me for coming to your Ted Talk.
found anti-monitorG-Man wrote: ↑Sat Mar 14, 2020 10:09 am OTHER: Wombats are adorable creatures and remarkable diggers. They possess a boney rump plate that can protect them from predators while digging a burrow. This can also be used to shield their young in the event a predator tries to invade the burrow. The parent wombat will stick their butt in the predator’s face. After a few unsuccessful strikes at the rump plate, many predators will give up their attack.
Wombats are also the only known animal to produce square-shaped feces. They have been documented in the wild to use their peculiarly-shaped excrement to mark territory and assemble them into formations to attract mates. Wombats can produce 80-100 of these 2cm square square-shaped scat each night.
A group of wombats is called either a colony, a mob, or a wisdom.
I don’t think Dizzy was the other Indy role.G-Man wrote: ↑Sat Mar 14, 2020 11:32 amOf course I do. I still have nagging doubts about Sloonei. I think he is very compatible with Team Master. But he’s not the only one. Now that we’re down to just 12 players, it should be easier for me to keep everyone straight, but I have neither the time nor the interest to go through the whole game. The last two days perhaps, but that’s being optimistic.juliets wrote: ↑Sat Mar 14, 2020 10:54 amG-Man, interesting facts about wombats but do you have any thoughts about the game?G-Man wrote: ↑Sat Mar 14, 2020 10:09 am OTHER: Wombats are adorable creatures and remarkable diggers. They possess a boney rump plate that can protect them from predators while digging a burrow. This can also be used to shield their young in the event a predator tries to invade the burrow. The parent wombat will stick their butt in the predator’s face. After a few unsuccessful strikes at the rump plate, many predators will give up their attack.
Wombats are also the only known animal to produce square-shaped feces. They have been documented in the wild to use their peculiarly-shaped excrement to mark territory and assemble them into formations to attract mates. Wombats can produce 80-100 of these 2cm square square-shaped scat each night.
A group of wombats is called either a colony, a mob, or a wisdom.
There were no kills on Night 1 or Night 3. Both nights were Team Anti-Monitor nights. With The Anti-Monitor the only remaining member of that team left, there’s no way for the few remaining roles capable to thwart a kill to do so on odd nights.
If Team Master does us a favor and picks off the Anti-Monitor tonight, then we might be able to stop kills every night if those few civvie roles remain alive. If Team Master chooses to pick off a top civ read, then wombat poop. If both sides pursue this strategy, then wombat poop squared.
Both sides know we’re analyzing the votes, so future close votes may not prove as revealing as D2 and D3. It all builds with each death and each reveal though. We just have to hope that time doesn’t run out before we catch a break.
One thing we can do to start sorting out the Anti-Monitor is determining which players we feel are not compatible with Mac/Team Master. If we don’t feel like anyone on the ensuing list looks damning enough to be Anti-Monitor, then it may be someone we feel is compatible with either team.
Tonight, as I said, is a Team Master kill night. While it would be nice for them to kill Anti-Monitor for us, no kill tonight would be acceptable too. That could break the game open for us again. Losing two civvies to those lynches sucks because it’s eight against four (civvies to baddies) at best, if Dyslexicon was a 3P.
Also astounding how everyone who has died since then was on that level.Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 14, 2020 9:58 am Also, if Epi or Ted isn’t scum, I call shenanigans on having an entirely town first level D4.
I agree that he fits just fine along Mac. Maybe slightly worse than average. He doesn’t fit in that camp.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Mar 14, 2020 3:33 amI don't agree with #1. I think he fits just fine alongside Mac.TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Mar 14, 2020 12:58 amWhy not, Mr. Bear? The civ reads in this game as in all games are split into two categories: 1) unlikely to be scum on teams, and 2) good tone reads. Epi seems good. And he’s fun to have around. He doesn’t seem agendaed.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Mar 14, 2020 12:01 amDon't ignore me. If that's your read, explain it to me.
#2 is all fair enough, but we're in Night 6. I don't think that's good enough anymore. I also don't think he "seems good" as much as he "seems barely present". His time constraints are real, and they have no impact upon his role card. He has made moves in this game with plenty of capacity for "agenda" -- shitting on juliets in the earliest stage, building that big case for Colin yesterday, defending sig loudly while many others were doing the opposite -- to name a few.
well if you do it againJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Mar 14, 2020 3:24 amI feel like I have to correctly define it in every game it's used.TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Mar 14, 2020 12:59 am“That’s not real player salad” is a scum tell starting now don’t do itJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Mar 14, 2020 12:26 am"I would be willing to lynch X, Y, Z, or maybe W" is the prototype. It isn't the same as saying "these are people I have suspicions of".
“That’s not real player salad” is a scum tell starting now don’t do itJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Mar 14, 2020 12:26 am"I would be willing to lynch X, Y, Z, or maybe W" is the prototype. It isn't the same as saying "these are people I have suspicions of".
Why not, Mr. Bear? The civ reads in this game as in all games are split into two categories: 1) unlikely to be scum on teams, and 2) good tone reads. Epi seems good. And he’s fun to have around. He doesn’t seem agendaed.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Mar 14, 2020 12:01 amDon't ignore me. If that's your read, explain it to me.
n o b o d y k n o w s w h a t i t m e a n sJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:57 pmYou don't know what that means, and you don't care about player salad.Epignosis wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:27 pmPlayer salad with extra dressing.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:21 pm There's the dilemma. At least five players for whom I have nearly no trust:
Turnip Head
ColinIsCool
tedxtr
Epignosis
speedchuck
I can think of a reason to give civilian credit to other people. This disregards Tranq, who is a total shrug.
Sloonei, could you very honestly do a slight addendum where you analyze Sabie’s views on you?
self aware scum still scumspeedchuck wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:32 pm Oh heck yeah we're lynching colin and I've read like one of his posts. I'm cool with taht.
I like the idea of the push for the reason I lay out. Ted seems a little uninspired but he’s not flailing as scum does. Therefore, him pushing a holey case on you is unnecessary given that you won’t be lynched. Maybe he misread the room, maybe he missed something else. But it’s not a mistake that scum makes.juliets wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:42 amTony, why did you like the push against me? It was based on him thinking I said something I didn't say, as he admitted. Did you miss that part?TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:35 amOn one hand, we're mostly all slow since Mac was lynched. That case can be made against anyone. On the other, Ted seems to have intentionally stopped pushing anything big. I'll still anti-tunnel him though just because I think the sharpness is town-ish. And I like the push against Juliets -- scum can probably take easier cases more successfully.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:30 amPenny for anyone's thoughtsJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:48 pm tedxtr I just scanned through your posts again. Since Mac was lynched, your hunting work has been quite limited — not in terms of post count, but in terms of post content. I see the following:
- The push against juliets that I didn’t like
- Push against sprityo D4
- A single vague dig at Jack
- A single vague dig at Michelle
- Today’s brief dig at TSP
- A theory predicated on inferring game/role mechanics and sig’s strategic intentions
There may have been another one-line/one-post shade in there. I think I remember one but not who. Phone.
This seems to contrast your play earlier in the game. I don’t know what you’re doing. What are you doing?
I don’t think the gradient is steep. I think the difference between the likelihood that Juliets is scum vs Colin is much much smaller than the chances that Juliets is lynched vs Colin.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:08 am"Energy" is a vague thing. This seems like a roundabout way of saying some players are harder to lynch than others right now, so okay. Your list reflects that more or less. Does this mean something to you with respect to the alignments of people?TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:58 am I think TH is a good consensus secret lynch. I think we can debate among the rest for the other one. I’ll be back to push some candidates at not 4 am.
Where are the tiers from? It’s more or less a “if someone was like ‘X is bad and here’s a vague reason why’ how much pushback would they get” question. I don’t think there’s a pattern per se, but I do think this is pretty accurate? Anything that seems off to you?
I think TH is a good consensus secret lynch. I think we can debate among the rest for the other one. I’ll be back to push some candidates at not 4 am.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:45 amThose tiers strike me as arbitrary. I struggle to extract a coherent pattern. What is the pattern?TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:39 am Lynch energy tiers:
Jack
Dom, Epi
Juliets, Sloonei, Tony
Jay, G-Man, Tranq, Ted
Speed, Michelle
Colin
Turnip
I would rather more split pushes on tiers 4 and 5 than consolidating on Colin and Turnip.
We should absolutely continue to discuss options instead of falling asleep at our keyboards with no further discourse. I do think however that earlier consolidation is best for the private vote, as that one requires active communication right here in this thread beyond I looked at the poll and saw wagons. That needn't be a cluster at the deadline if it can be avoided. Who do you want to be each lynch?
Lynch energy tiers:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:02 amWell now what does that mean?TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:00 am I don't want Jay to get away with almost getting lynched.
Speed's been playing slow, with a little more confidence than I think town should have.
On one hand, we're mostly all slow since Mac was lynched. That case can be made against anyone. On the other, Ted seems to have intentionally stopped pushing anything big. I'll still anti-tunnel him though just because I think the sharpness is town-ish. And I like the push against Juliets -- scum can probably take easier cases more successfully.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:30 amPenny for anyone's thoughtsJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:48 pm tedxtr I just scanned through your posts again. Since Mac was lynched, your hunting work has been quite limited — not in terms of post count, but in terms of post content. I see the following:
- The push against juliets that I didn’t like
- Push against sprityo D4
- A single vague dig at Jack
- A single vague dig at Michelle
- Today’s brief dig at TSP
- A theory predicated on inferring game/role mechanics and sig’s strategic intentions
There may have been another one-line/one-post shade in there. I think I remember one but not who. Phone.
This seems to contrast your play earlier in the game. I don’t know what you’re doing. What are you doing?
