The Syndicate

Yep, that looks about right. 1 deep wolf and the person who was replaced twice. Thanks for the game!

Ooh yikes a vote

We might could vote No Lynch BTW guys, if we don't came to a consensus townread (tho it looks like MP will be it)

How sure are you of Michelle Urist? And why?

MP's self-analysis concurs with my observations of her. If she has an agenda, she isn't sticking with it very well.

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 11:15 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 7:46 pm I just skimmed 1612's ISO. I don't feel like voting there today. The effort in some of those posts makes me think that the many posts about 'sorry I'm not there' were genuine.

I don't have much reason not to vote Michelle.

I tinfoil MP7 over Dizzy, but it's hard to say. MP being inconsistent is pretty town meta for her.
What specifically, do you mind elaborating on this?

There's not much more to elaborate on. I glanced at 1612's ISO and saw a bunch of excuses for not playing.

A deeper dive showed me quite a few long, involved posts.

This is the light level of analysis I'm doing.

Carotenoid wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 11:37 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 10:27 pm Even in the most tinfoily of situations, there's still a scum NOT in Dizzy/MP/Urist. I don't think I want to lynch there today. But I'm not ruling anything out until we get a scumflip.
Why not in these three? It's *exactly* my tinfoil team

Okay, maybe not in the MOST Tinfoily of situations...

But if that's the team, the game might as well be over, so I'm not considering it.

1612 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 9:27 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 9:18 am Actually, I'm going to further elaborate on this. 1612, easily one of the worse players from my comparison, is not on this list. Why? Please tell me.
One more thing before I hit the shack, what did you mean by this? Could you tell me what your thought process was when saying that?

You can mostly ignore it. I read, like, your first 6-7 posts in the game and made a snap judgment because I didn't have the time.

While my question above was never answered (kinda a recurring thing this game) I ended up finding out that you weren't as bad as the first impression I saw.

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 9:00 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 9:06 am
M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 7:36 pm Michelle and speed are incredibly likely wolves now. The third one is the tough one.
This is garbo.

Picking up two of the easier targets left in the game and saying 'Yep, game is all but solved' when there isn't a single scumlynch to analyse for partner interactions is insane.

And yes, I know what I quoted there is not what you said. You can argue semantics. But this is a lazy pass at claiming a gamestate that isn't true. A gamestate that will cause complacency and guarantee that town loses.
After everything I've put into this game I'd rather not anything I've done be called lazy, that is all.

I'm only operating off of the here and now. I understand you have a high post count, and that there is a lot of effort in those posts.

Even in the most tinfoily of situations, there's still a scum NOT in Dizzy/MP/Urist. I don't think I want to lynch there today. But I'm not ruling anything out until we get a scumflip.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 8:09 pm My info is MP is town or I quit. Call it complacency if you want.
I read through Michelle's iso and I didn't like it. Vote on Scirrus and Alison, one on 1612 with no intent or bite and a backtrack of voting somewhere else "cause 1612 showed up now". She talks to MP as she's town and same with me early game, which reads tmi. Volume clear on MP I dislike. She later scum reads 1612 and Lav, but tunnels only Lav. I especially don't like her handling of 1612 which reads teammate all the way to me. Would like opinions on this.

So where I'm at now is that I would want to vote either Michelle or 1612. If the alternative is "but why are you not considering that it could be yourself and MP" then lol. And it's not like I haven't payed attention to MP or evaluated her in my mind all the time, trust me. I just don't see it. You can blame me if I'm wrong, that is entirely fine. Or make a good case.

I think voting Urist is dumb here.

I think it's very possible Urist is scum and also agree that voting there is dumb. That slot is a self-resolving problem, methinks.

And no, I'm not asking you to consider if you are scum. That's dumb. :P But you coming at someone aggressively for considering the possibility is something for the non-dizzy people to look at.

1612 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 8:08 pm
1612 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 7:28 pm So @speedchuck , I really want to hear your thoughts on me because it seems like to me you have urgency today and I think you didn't participate at all for looking at Lavendar and Michelle. You are telling us that you are frustrated how some players are complacent but to me, you were also very complacent yesterday

speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 7:46 pm I just skimmed 1612's ISO. I don't feel like voting there today. The effort in some of those posts makes me think that the many posts about 'sorry I'm not there' were genuine.

I don't have much reason not to vote Michelle.

I tinfoil MP7 over Dizzy, but it's hard to say. MP being inconsistent is pretty town meta for her.
Okay but you didn't really answer my question. You iso my logs in mylo instead of yesterday? understandable if you don't play tryhard in a non-mylo situation but your reasoning on me as town in the general scope of the game was always there for you to read. Why didn't you want to try to solve lavendar and michelle first, why did you park your vote on me, why didn't you read me town with your reasoning when it existed yesterday?

I'm not tryharding today, either.

I know that I'm low-info, and I'm not going to have the time or energy to push past that. So instead I spend my time pushing other players, asking questions, and making quick gut judgments.

If anyone had engaged me or contradicted me on the 1612 vs Lav thing, I might have looked deeper yesterday. I did so perchance today now that the game is a little narrower.

Carotenoid wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 8:05 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 7:51 pm
Carotenoid wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 7:47 pm Do you not have thoughts on the actual content of my post though?
Some of my most recent post was about the content in your post. Specifically my thoughts on MP, and her wishy-washyness. I didn't reply directly though.

I'm not sure what you mean about my EOD being opportunistic?
I feel like your votes were more "following the flow" kind rather than "trying to solve"

Fair enough.

I based my vote more on who I didn't want to vote for than who I did, or who I was solving for.

I'm a lazy person.

I know I'm being hypocritical about this because I'm not going to scour the game as if my life depended on it... but I'll call out anyone who actively pushes toward ignoring possibilities or settling for complacency.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 8:02 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 8:01 pm In MYLO with no scumlynches, I'm worried when people encourage complacency or try to dismiss possibilities. We have 24 hours. We should, ideally, make the most informed decision possible.
Inform me, daddy.

*readies newspaper for another whap*

Basically, if Carot is unsure and wants to talk about it, I think they're allowed. It worries me that you would shut down that avenue of discussion with a bullcrap reason, Dizzy. You expect Carot to have a surefire read on you and MP after skimming the entire thread once?

In MYLO with no scumlynches, I'm worried when people encourage complacency or try to dismiss possibilities. We have 24 hours. We should, ideally, make the most informed decision possible.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 7:55 pm
Carotenoid wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 7:52 pmI'm not sure but I definitely think that it's possible and that we shouldn't overlook this scenario
Insert Vixen gif of "No too vague" here. There's no time to "let's not overlook it". Either you believe it or not. I have tons of content in thread, so it really shouldn't be hard to get a read on me.

Code: Select all

*player shows up new to the game in MYLO*

*player skims whole thread*

"You know," player says, "this scenario is a possibility to consider, we should look at it."

"I have much content," says Dizzy. "You should have made a decision. Either commit or gtfo."

I'm concerned.

Carotenoid wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 7:47 pm Do you not have thoughts on the actual content of my post though?

Some of my most recent post was about the content in your post. Specifically my thoughts on MP, and her wishy-washyness. I didn't reply directly though.

I'm not sure what you mean about my EOD being opportunistic?

I just skimmed 1612's ISO. I don't feel like voting there today. The effort in some of those posts makes me think that the many posts about 'sorry I'm not there' were genuine.

I don't have much reason not to vote Michelle.

I tinfoil MP7 over Dizzy, but it's hard to say. MP being inconsistent is pretty town meta for her.

Carotenoid wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 7:35 pm Alright I'm done catching up! Pfiouh, that was quite a read.

Did you... did you read the whole thread?

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 9:49 am
speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 9:42 amExpplain this pls
If 1612 is scum, why not just take the Lav misyeet? Actually that works regardless of Michelle. To white knight and get town cred, I guess? I was just thinking his whole perspective could be TMI, including his scum read on Michelle. I guess the question is, why would he care so much if the result is being wrong on both accounts?

Because caring looks towny?

I'm not really disagreeing with you here, actually, just wanted some clarification.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 9:40 am How is this game still hard? It's just 1612/Michelle/X?

*slaps dizzy with a newspaper*

Lavender wrote: ↑Sat Jul 18, 2020 3:28 am
Urist wrote: ↑Fri Jul 17, 2020 10:05 pm also just going to throw it out there that a) even if you know who the cop is, it's not always the correct play to kill them, and b) now that the cop is revealed it's easy enough to say "oh yeah i knew who it was".
my first thought when scirrus was killed was, "oh yeah this scum team must be feeling really comfy if they don't even bother hunting for the cop".

/tinfoil
and the winner for the scum team who would feel the most comfy at that point in the game goes to...

mp7/michelle/cobbler

I'm not sure how to feel about this proposed alignment between Michelle and MP7.
Michelle opened the game in favor for MP, literally first post. Michelle has never suspected MP.
MP heavily suspects Michelle, and Michelle kinda just slaps and says 'stop.' I don't think there's any counter-suspicion there, throughout the whole game.

And yeah, I just read over Michelle's ISO. It's easier to get something out of it when there are scum flips to work with. I'll look a little harder.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 9:32 am I think that if 1612 is scum, Michelle is scum too, cause why would he put so much energy into defending Lavender as town between the two?

Expplain this pls

speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 9:06 am
M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 7:36 pm Michelle and speed are incredibly likely wolves now. The third one is the tough one.
This is garbo.

Picking up two of the easier targets left in the game and saying 'Yep, game is all but solved' when there isn't a single scumlynch to analyse for partner interactions is insane.

And yes, I know what I quoted there is not what you said. You can argue semantics. But this is a lazy pass at claiming a gamestate that isn't true. A gamestate that will cause complacency and guarantee that town loses.

Actually, I'm going to further elaborate on this. 1612, easily one of the worse players from my comparison, is not on this list. Why? Please tell me.
Cobbler-Cartenoid-whoever-else, a player that has now been replaced TWICE, is not on this list. (my experience finds that replacements are more often mafia, and yes I'm aware of the hypocrisy). Why is that?

Despite this suspect list consisting of nothing but complacent, 'I guess they're scum because no one else is' picks, we've had three straight days of banishments that went down the tubes. Why is that? Just bad luck?
Or, if I'm wrong, is there a specific reason to suspect me? (there might be one for Michelle, but I haven't read it yet)

I will read Michelle today.

Lavender wrote: ↑Sat Jul 18, 2020 9:02 pm the lion king, according to lavender

i think that mp7 and michelle are outed mafia, and mp7 is gf. i think the third mafia is most likely cobbler-ted (hi, @tedxtr!). if it's not cobbler-ted, it's jeraldoo. if it's not jeraldoo, it's 1612. how i arrived at this conclusion should be clear from my last few posts. long story short, i think urist hit the nail on the head that scirrus being the n1 kill reeks of mafia being comfy n1. if they weren't comfy, they would try to kill cop instead. mp7/michelle/cobbler is easily the comfiest scumteam of the three possibilities in my book (mp7/michelle/cobbler-ted, mp7/michelle/jeraldoo, mp7/michelle/1612)

i think mp7/michelle/cobbler-ted headed into n1 confident that none of them would be or had been cop checked. my impression was that mp7 was universally townread (on her meta, i guess? i don't really understand it at all). michelle was townread by alison (and tutuu?) after alison seemed satisfied by michelle's defense in response to alison's push. cobbler-ted also seemed to be universally townread for a town/gamesolvey mindset in his early posts

frankly i think these three go into n1 with a gameplan of pocketing alison and tutuu all game. they reason that tutuu is cop (based on softing alison as the n0 check?) and will probably check urist to resolve the confusion surrounding the nanook-lc/urist split on eod1. they reason that they can either push a misbanish on urist as gf OR take credit for townreading urist early, depending on how alison/tutuu are leaning about the whole situation

this is consistent with my reads on pretty much every other player as well, as well as other associations i've picked up on:

1) i went into n1 most suspicious of urist, proto, and tutuu. i poked at urist and found his reaction to be extremely town. i questioned tutuu and found her response to be extremely town

2) tutuu's brilliant cop reveal d2 which asked all the players for their reads sent mp7 and cobbler running for the hills. i remember me and dys being active posters after that reveal. i remember michelle and mp7 promising reads later. my impression of the claim was that tutuu had a red check. i noticed that tutuu had been asking urist for a scumcase on mp7 the previous night. i reasoned that mp7 was the red check and indicated this in the post containing my reads. this claim was universally ignored, which is extremely consistent with mp7 being gf: she and her mafia pals would know that her actually being the red check is impossible, so how can any of them respond to my claim without implicating themselves? i guess their best play is hard bussing mp7. indeed, the brilliancy of tutuu's play, to me, is that she essentially forced mafia to bus mp7. the simple explanation for their silence, to me, is that they missed the boat on that opportunity

3) on the other hand, dys' excited reaction to the cop claim and reads are super town to me at this point (townreading urist, skepticism of mp7)

4) i don't think i can prove this, but i wonder if anyone else can recall who was on the brief alison wagon d1. i think it was me/proto/urist, and one other person at one point. my candidate scumteam not being on this vote is consistent with their plan to pocket alison. according to 1612 in his most recent post, michelle was on the alison wagon but then jumped off of it. this could be nervousness about sticking to the script of pocketing alison/tutuu. the motivations for this, if it actually happened, definitely needs to be probed @Michelle

5) i went into n2 pretty sus of mp7, and was in fact the lone voter on her d2 before proto was killed (nobody else even voted that day, lol). i also intended to get more information from 1612 and jeraldoo, if possible. i came out of this with a slight town lean on 1612. at one point i was looking at what i thought were proto's legacy reads (it turned out to in fact be mp7's d1 read list, oops). this list suggested that alison was clear, and i was intrigued by the town reads on urist and dys. liking these reads is what led to my offhand claim that "alison town implies michelle is mafia". michelle became extremely defensive of this statement and immediately omgussed me. moreover, her interactions with me since then do not address the big picture of my current reads. rather, they are simply nitpicking my statements out of context

6) i would suggest pressuring mp7/michelle/cobbler-ted for an explanation of how exactly they came to the conclusion that alison and tutuu were town. their answers to these questions will be very telling. given the world where my candidate scumteam pockets alison and tutuu all game, the earlier they point out that they knew tutuu was cop, the more sus they are @M Plus 7 @Michelle @tedxtr

call this all mafia tmi if u want, idrc. i feel absolutely great about these reads, so much so that i'm almost tempted to self-vote today since i'm fucking exhausted and it would be an easy way to draw more attention to the world i see. i'm not going to do this out of respect for my fellow players, and on the off-chance that cobbler-ted is not the third mafia -- i wouldn't want to waste our last misbanish. i will put mp7/michelle scum at 90% certainty, mp7 gf at 80%, and cobbler mafia at 70%

let me just say that i will hold the L for the rest of my life if urist is mafia. pocketing me n1 with a billboard town response to my n1 reaction check, and then leading me down the path i'm on now, if it's misguided, is literally the plot of the movie inception

i'm voting mp7 now

tl;dr fucking iso me if u misbanish me, mp7/michelle/cobbler-ted are probably scum, this game is solved
banish mp7 --> michelle --> cobbler --> jeraldoo

Legacy reads. Let's talk about them and not let a townie's voice drop into the void like we usually do, yeah?

If I'm going to play this game I will need some TL;DR summaries.

Like, for example, why did we lynch Lav? This is not a posture question. I want to know so I can evaluate people.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 9:05 am Hi, Speed. What are your feelings about the game? What is it like to replace in and now we're in MYLO? Pretty cool?

lol it's not very cool tbf

Would still like for you to look into Michelle or basically anyone you feel it's worth looking into.

I'll definitely look into Michelle.

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 7:36 pm Michelle and speed are incredibly likely wolves now. The third one is the tough one.

This is garbo.

Picking up two of the easier targets left in the game and saying 'Yep, game is all but solved' when there isn't a single scumlynch to analyse for partner interactions is insane.

And yes, I know what I quoted there is not what you said. You can argue semantics. But this is a lazy pass at claiming a gamestate that isn't true. A gamestate that will cause complacency and guarantee that town loses.

Literally MYLO tomorrow. Anyone who encourages complacency about the gamestate should be investigated.

I never got an answer as to why we were lynching Lav. Even after my ISO I found nothing amiss.

Feels like deepwolf.

[VOTE: Michelle] aubergine

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 5:03 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 5:01 pm
M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:49 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:49 pm [VOTE: 1612] aubergine
Explain please, I'm anxious.
I've given the only explanation I have. I don't think their posts look comfortable.
It is strictly optimal to vote either Lavender or Michelle today. Do so now, please.

I will.

But I would like to know why.

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:49 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:49 pm [VOTE: 1612] aubergine
Explain please, I'm anxious.

I've given the only explanation I have. I don't think their posts look comfortable.

[VOTE: 1612] aubergine

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 3:51 pm @speedchuck I understand that you can't read the whole game. You know Michelle, right? Could you look into her and tell me what you think?

I don't, really, and I'm exhausted from doing Lav. I'll hit michelle's ISO if I have time.

Lavender ISO

Lavender pokes out 'not aligned' people with some meta reads and a couple scumreads right out the gate.
Changes their mind quickly without worry toward appearances, gave a reason for it.
Every time a read is played out, Lav has reasons for it.
Firmness of reads is skewed, best I can tell, toward people Lav knows from before the syndicate, but not explusive to them. That's good, sounds honest.
Sassy AF with Urist.
This is a fun ISO to read.
Lav sussed Tutuu overnight N1. According to Lav, it was to dissuade mafia from killing Tutuu as a townfirm. Good show if Lav knew Tutuu was the cop N1. Doesn't look that easy to fake, if so it was done really well.

Lavender wrote: ↑Fri Jul 17, 2020 12:26 am reads off the top of my head

scum:

alison (i've been pretending to trust alison, i don't really trust her, but i can't really put a finger on why)
proto (tho less so than yesterday, i trust him more after last night/this morning)
1612 (i think the fact that they are scum is part of why they aren't having a good time)
mp7 (only because i bet tutuu checked mp7, and it seems like she has a red for us. makes sense now why tutuu was asking for a scumcase from alison or whomever. dys, i'm assuming this is the conclusion you came to as well, and i'm posting it now because i won't have time to post again for another 12 hours probably)

town:

michelle (explained why yesterday)
dys (by proxy from alison's read)
cobbler (also by proxy, but also that they said they were nervous early on but had been providing good compilation of info yesterday)
urist (i trust them after our interaction last night)
jeraldoo (the questionably pseudo-ogi reason proto mentioned about them joining late yesterday)

Scumreads 1612 for similar reasons to my reaction to their entrance. I like that. The rest of this is lackluster.

Still aggressively sassy.
Some sketchy posts happen when Lav is memeing. Lav later uses the reaction to those as a basis for reads, on Michelle in particular. Shows initiative, and a willingness not to worry about appearances if it means getting reactions.
Don't agree with the read on MP7, but I'm not very informed. Still, post count alone though.
Huge gamestate solving post at post 1950, shows genuine drive and a desire to win this game and be understood/helpful.

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 3:34 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 3:33 pm
M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 3:31 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 3:30 pm Actually on an insanely light ISO skim 1612 does look worse yeah? Lav's ISO has the content early on and has mind changing, and 1612 starts with 'I was gonna play but I didn't'

am I missing something (I mean, everything obvviously, but something concrete)
Wait, explain this to me again, sorry.
1612 looks worse than Lavender when I first open up the ISO. Lavender has content right out the gate, albeit shallow content at first. 1612 doesn't.

I should be the one asking questions here.
Oh, I see now. So you see 1612 as a wolf struggling to adapt to this format then?

I see their first posts in the game lacking the comfort that Lavender had. So... sort of. But IDK what format they come from.

These are very base-level observations. I am asking why Lav is the current lynch over 1612. I have little on either of them, there's no way I'm reading the whole thread.

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 3:31 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 3:30 pm Actually on an insanely light ISO skim 1612 does look worse yeah? Lav's ISO has the content early on and has mind changing, and 1612 starts with 'I was gonna play but I didn't'

am I missing something (I mean, everything obvviously, but something concrete)
Wait, explain this to me again, sorry.

1612 looks worse than Lavender when I first open up the ISO. Lavender has content right out the gate, albeit shallow content at first. 1612 doesn't.

I should be the one asking questions here.

Actually on an insanely light ISO skim 1612 does look worse yeah? Lav's ISO has the content early on and has mind changing, and 1612 starts with 'I was gonna play but I didn't'

am I missing something (I mean, everything obvviously, but something concrete)

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 3:25 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 3:24 pm hi mp

Just replaced in.
Are you jeraldooo then?

No im speedchuck

(yes that was my slot)

hi mp

Just replaced in.

I recently helped lynch MP despite the post count tell and it went as terribly as can be imagined. Rather not do that again.

[VOTE: Lavender] aubergine

I mean, I didn't but okay

I thought the Urist check was a fake, guess only the red peek part was fake.

Urist wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 10:14 am
speedchuck wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 9:38 am Let's see if I get this from skimming

All power roles dead (except Godfather according to the matrix, which is useless atm)
Alison confirmed town by D0 peek
Dizzy and MP checked as town, could technically be godfather?

Juicy cop interactions through all N2.

Am I missing anything? And also why was LC the uncontested vote D1?
You're a little off...

LC / Nanook was tied with myself at 6 votes at eod d1.
Alison was n0'd, I'm n1 green. Dizzy and mp7 were not checked.

Geez, my skimming powers are rusty. Thanks.

Let's see if I get this from skimming

All power roles dead (except Godfather according to the matrix, which is useless atm)
Alison confirmed town by D0 peek
Dizzy and MP checked as town, could technically be godfather?

Juicy cop interactions through all N2.

Am I missing anything? And also why was LC the uncontested vote D1?

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