The Syndicate

sabie12 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:33 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Feb 14, 2019 12:00 am
Epignosis wrote: ↑Wed Feb 13, 2019 11:41 pm I was godawful in 2018.
Me too. I believe I've won twice in my last ten games.
I haven't won since I've been back blahh

I stopped winning from (I think) July of 2018 through December, despite playing in almost every game. Now I'm doing well again.

No idea how much is luck and how much is skill or mental state, but it always comes back around!

nutella wrote: ↑Wed Feb 13, 2019 9:45 pm Oh my dear boy every year is the year of nutella.

You mispelled speedchuck just fyi.

DharmaHelper wrote: ↑Wed Feb 13, 2019 1:49 pm Man if anyone had me on their fantasy team that's a buncha points.

I fantasize about having you on my team, yes.

Man deadchat didn't suspect me

I was sweating bullets

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Feb 12, 2019 10:43 pm Dead chat

I will refrain from sharing the mafia chat since I forgot to warn them of that pre-game.

I'm cool with it.

/me, final day of the game

*starts arguing against Sabie lynch*

What am I even doing?

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Feb 12, 2019 10:30 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Feb 12, 2019 10:28 pm nutella, what would you have said had speedchuck killed you instead of Sloonei to end the game?
I would have been extremely angry and flipped out lol

As you should have been. That would have been a jerk move.

I did consider asking you to kingmake with me.

[mention]Sloonei[/mention] Your award presentation was amazing. I want to play all of those games in 2024.

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Feb 12, 2019 9:11 pm So sorry sabie. Speed fuckin pulled a feat that lives up to his best mafioso award. At least I still get to win!! Yayyy

I seriously thought that award would get me killed this game.

Hey guys!

I have so much to say. For one, WOW we were lucky to get off the roleblocks and kills we did. Cops and 3P killers are dangerous.
Despite the coasting that us scummers were allowed to get by with on the first few days, every one of you had us sweating these last four days. Good game. Ironically, I feel like this game qualified me better for the award than any game last year.
As a note, we went into this game planning not to bus each other at any point. We weren't good at it, we said. It was a bad idea, we said.
And then I missed the deadline when I was supposed to move from DDL to Lunalee, and the team fell apart.
That lynch was crazy. With nutella's role being what it is, there was only a 12.5% chance that DDL would be lynched on D5. It happened.
Crazy game, well designed, fun roles. I was glad to be a part of it!

Congrats to my teammates and nutella! We tried to kill you, but Kylemii snuffed it instead and I was too scared to try again.

Sorry, Sabie. Sloonei gave me a really convenient set of posts where he suspected Luna least and you most. He was the person I needed to convince. I managed to build up more cred than usual this game. Now I will be plagued by the #alwaysscum tag forever.

The awards were great. Everyone deserved them. DH's speech warmed my heart, Nutella's video was excellent, it's great to see a community where everyone can contribute like this.

Finally, my awards. Best Mafia, Best Burglary, and.... Best Theme? I almost teared up. I figured what it meant. SOMEONE HAS ACTUALLY BEEN READING MY WRITEUPS! I love writing, so it means a lot to me that you guys voted there. I really didn't expect any awards this year, because there are so many great players and hosters on this site. Thanks so much.

Looking forward to a great 2019 with you all!

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Feb 12, 2019 6:13 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Tue Feb 12, 2019 6:07 pm That's also a good point though about his favorable read of me. Agh the waffles, they have me again.
The number of times your name has had "waffles" attached to it in this game is making me very hungry.

Thirty minutes until I can leave work and get some.

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Feb 12, 2019 5:05 pm Yeah sloonei using his extra vote for the scum win seems possible but would he really do that and plant the "mayor" seed, I personally find it much more likely that he did that as town honestly thinking Luna was the better choice. Also this might be angle shooting but I don't think Jay gives mafia extra vote powers but idk also sloot could have been lying about it entirely but again I doubt it. I think this game is solverinoed bois.

That was the cincher for me too, the Mayor seed.

Sloonei's only bad look is that he pretty much guaranteed a scum loss at MYLO by using his extra vote. Only crazy 3p weirdness kept the game going. Maybe the reason scum didn't have a good plan or that DDL didn't switch is that they thought they had it in the bag. That's a single bad look, but it's a big one.

One the other hand, with a possible redirected kill from targeting nutella, it would make sense if Sabie had her plans ruined by a deflection to Lunalee. The only reason she had a response ready is because of how hard that unexpected kill hit her. Making an assumption here, but it's a possibility.

As of right now, I'm tinfoiling, but I believe Sloonei more than Sabie. [VOTE: Sabie] aubergine

And everything makes sense again. I can stop tinfoiling on Nutella.

There's no reason for her to subtract from the Luna lynch, either as town or as scum. If scum, let Luna be lynched. If town, why would she be tricky about the vote?

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Feb 12, 2019 4:32 pm Lol I secretly accidentally (but fortunately) subtracted from he Luna lynch.

Please explain everything about this.
Is it your role? Someone else's?
What do you mean accidentally?

I might have more questions but that's a good place to start. This may or may not clear you, and I've been hemming and hawwing all day, so it's pretty important.

If nutella caused the null spot on that lynch then she can't be scum.

linki: well okay but I'm still confused

Welp. I'm confused to hell.

[mention]nutella[/mention] Are you self-aligned?

Luna and G-Man were both vanilla, too. Unless they were given something, they couldn't have tied that vote.

SVS wouldn't have added a -1.

Either Nutella secretly subtracted from the Luna lynch, or shenanigans happened. I'm going to look back at the scum flips.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Feb 12, 2019 4:18 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Wed Feb 06, 2019 10:53 pm
S~V~S wrote: ↑Wed Feb 06, 2019 10:48 pm Why is it his job?
I’m the mayor!
I put a +1 vote on luna. I figured I was in control of the tie. Thankfully I was not.

... huh.

Well, that changes things significantly. I have little beef with your action. From your point of view, DDL wouln't vote for himself, everyone else had made their choice, and the best Sabie could do was tie the action (possibly revealing herself as scum saving Luna). Not bad.

I never catch these hints.

I wonder how DDL got lynched. It wasn't me adding an extra vote.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Feb 12, 2019 4:03 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Feb 12, 2019 4:00 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Feb 12, 2019 3:47 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Feb 12, 2019 3:23 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Feb 08, 2019 9:01 pm Dragon D. Luffy - 3 Voters: G-Man, speedchuck, Lunalee
Lunalee - 3 Voters: S~V~S, Sloonei, nutella
nutella - 1 Voter: Dragon D. Luffy
speedchuck - 1 Voters: sabie12
This is the messiest vote all game. A tie at MYLO between scum and not scum. I wasn't around for deadline, and I don't think Sabie was either. So @Sloonei @nutella know you've stated your stance on Luna, but in general what made you think it was okay to tie the lynch at MYLO? Why ignore wagon consolidation?
Wagon consolidation can suck an egg when I suspect scum manipulation at MYLO. DDL received votes from just about everybody with zero resistance and I panicked. I was convinced he was the easy mislynch scapegoat.

When I moved to luna, as I’ve said, it was more for the sake of generating discussion on somebody else rather than a specific target (luna). But the votes that followed stuck there and at the end of the day I thought she was our best bet to avoid the obvious DDL mislynch.
I don't agree with the gameplay style, but that's neither here nor there I guess.
I think it’s relevant. What would you have had me do?

In your situation? Attempt the very thing you attempted, and then if you were causing a tie that scum could easily take advantage of, move onto whatever wagon denied scum control of the lynch. Unless you were nearly convinced that DDL was town and Luna was scum, in which case, I'd have been super loud, campaigning, mentioning people to try and get them in thread to move at least one vote and avoid the tie.

Granted, I may be underestimating how strongly you believed DDL was town. I don't think avoiding a tie is a good reason to vote for someone you read town, if that's what you're getting at.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Feb 12, 2019 3:47 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Feb 12, 2019 3:23 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Feb 08, 2019 9:01 pm Dragon D. Luffy - 3 Voters: G-Man, speedchuck, Lunalee
Lunalee - 3 Voters: S~V~S, Sloonei, nutella
nutella - 1 Voter: Dragon D. Luffy
speedchuck - 1 Voters: sabie12
This is the messiest vote all game. A tie at MYLO between scum and not scum. I wasn't around for deadline, and I don't think Sabie was either. So @Sloonei @nutella know you've stated your stance on Luna, but in general what made you think it was okay to tie the lynch at MYLO? Why ignore wagon consolidation?
Wagon consolidation can suck an egg when I suspect scum manipulation at MYLO. DDL received votes from just about everybody with zero resistance and I panicked. I was convinced he was the easy mislynch scapegoat.

When I moved to luna, as I’ve said, it was more for the sake of generating discussion on somebody else rather than a specific target (luna). But the votes that followed stuck there and at the end of the day I thought she was our best bet to avoid the obvious DDL mislynch.

I don't agree with the gameplay style, but that's neither here nor there I guess.

sabie12 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 12, 2019 3:36 pm In that space force game I might add I was right about dizzy being the other baddie and no one believed me because I voted dizzy and everyone else voted quin who got lynched and flipped bad. People gave me flack for that and then I ended up getting killed off and then ultimately we ended up losing in the end.

Yeah, that was my bad. That whole game was my bad. I'm loud.

sabie12 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 12, 2019 3:03 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:48 pm I meant to put a question on the end of that for you, sabie12. How do you respond to that argument?
I dont know really. I just am going to feel really bad if I get mislynched and then the civs lose. Then people will be all well if only you tried harder and did this instead of that. I don't want everyone to be upset with me because it'll be my fault we lose.

As to the point sloonei just made I have suspected speed before and have voted for him before. It is still possible he could be bad. If sloonei isnt bad and nutellas only real thing is the voting against svs. I guess i can see how mamaymamaybmamaymamaybe she thought the svs lynch was too easy I almost thought that too. maybe we should be looking at speed?

This sentiment in the first paragraph rings really true. I hate being the MYLO mislynch. I've been trying to work on not being a jerk at endgame, but a good example would be the recent game SPACE FORCE. I just about went mental because I was, for some time, being shoehorned into the MYLO mislynch basket. It wasn't pretty.

Nutella has had the opposite reaction as me. I think Sabie sounds really genuine in her plea against being mislynched. It's not "Y'all are wrong and are going to feel really bad," no blame, no strong NO U postings. Just a few statements about how much it sucks and how she has no plan to deal with it.

I feel like SVS or DDL would have at least left Sabie a clue or some help in BTSC at some point, or something to make this endgame feel less disjointed and unconnected. Just a feeling.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Feb 08, 2019 9:01 pm Dragon D. Luffy - 3 Voters: G-Man, speedchuck, Lunalee
Lunalee - 3 Voters: S~V~S, Sloonei, nutella
nutella - 1 Voter: Dragon D. Luffy
speedchuck - 1 Voters: sabie12

This is the messiest vote all game. A tie at MYLO between scum and not scum. I wasn't around for deadline, and I don't think Sabie was either. So [mention]Sloonei[/mention] [mention]nutella[/mention] know you've stated your stance on Luna, but in general what made you think it was okay to tie the lynch at MYLO? Why ignore wagon consolidation?

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Feb 12, 2019 3:14 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Feb 12, 2019 3:08 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:55 pm My tinfoil against speedchuck has to do with his behavior today: he enters the day least likely of all to be lynched. He killed Luna because she’s the most likely to see through his suit of bull. He acts all concerned by peppering us with questions today just to pad his image while we continue to convince ourselves thay sabie is the best lynch.
It sounds more like you're tinfoiling me based on the Luna nightkill happening.
I have to start somewhere.

But it was actually your series of questions for each of us that got me thinking. If your bad, your path to victory is very easy. All you need to do is keep up the appearance of a townie for ~24 hours. The easiest way to do that is to ask everyone questions and appear engaged.

As opposed to a townie, who would be legitimately engaged?

I don't mind you looking at me. I'm looking at you guys too. Let me know if you have questions, I'll do my best to answer. I'd like to think I've been pretty transparent this game.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:55 pm My tinfoil against speedchuck has to do with his behavior today: he enters the day least likely of all to be lynched. He killed Luna because she’s the most likely to see through his suit of bull. He acts all concerned by peppering us with questions today just to pad his image while we continue to convince ourselves thay sabie is the best lynch.

It sounds more like you're tinfoiling me based on the Luna nightkill happening.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Fri Feb 08, 2019 4:56 pm Cynical look at DDL

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Jan 30, 2019 6:14 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Wed Jan 30, 2019 5:47 pm
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Jan 30, 2019 5:01 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Wed Jan 30, 2019 4:29 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed Jan 30, 2019 4:00 pm
Lunalee wrote: ↑Wed Jan 30, 2019 3:54 pm Ugh, the poll has way too many single votes on it right now.
Maybe you could fix that?
Lol last time someone called Luna out for not practicing what she was preaching she was bad

I don't necessarily suspect her for it here though. Only so much one can do

But we only have 4.5 hours so yeah who should we start grouping votes onto? I'd love to hear thoughts other than my own
The way you start the sentence with "lol" before throwing shade at someone then saying you won't "necessarily" vote for them triggered my senses.
Come on you have played with me in the last year.
Nutella I can't help it, it's an involuntary reaction. You say scummy things and it triggers my scumdar. I have to use all my willpower just to keep it down.
On the one hand, I noted this interaction as well. But DDL downplaying it, even on D1, is off. Why keep it down? Why not go after her and see what happens? It's D1.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Jan 30, 2019 6:21 pm This is normally the point where I'd be reading a reasonable LC defense and looking for a more serious wagon but LC hasn't posted again yet.

What do I do? I don't wanna pull the trigger on Nutella either.
Why not? Is DDL usually this hesitant to step out and DO things? And is he afraid of losing a valuable player, or of the repercussions?
I know it could be the former, but despite the joking tone, these posts feel like walking on glass.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sun Feb 03, 2019 10:31 am
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Feb 02, 2019 6:31 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Wed Jan 30, 2019 4:29 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed Jan 30, 2019 4:00 pm
Lunalee wrote: ↑Wed Jan 30, 2019 3:54 pm Ugh, the poll has way too many single votes on it right now.
Maybe you could fix that?
Lol last time someone called Luna out for not practicing what she was preaching she was bad

I don't necessarily suspect her for it here though. Only so much one can do

But we only have 4.5 hours so yeah who should we start grouping votes onto? I'd love to hear thoughts other than my own
In the above post this reads like a Mafia player latching on to a town made case. She is also exhibiting "the Russ" by casting doubt in both directions. This serves to pacify both Speechuck and Lunalee towards her at the same time. It's made even more genius by the fact that speedchuck wasn't even really explicitly suspecting lunalee, and nutella escalated it to that in a way to make it seem like speedchuck did. What you do here as mafia is go back and blame speedchuck when lunalee flips town. Not outright, but "speedchuck pointed out that she was being hypocritical and I agreed" is a good cover for raising a bad case.

You can see in the below post that DDL saw something samesuch in the post. He simplified it down to her use of the term "lol". I think he felt something else and struggled to quantify it. Speak to that for me DDL.
It's not just the "lol", it's the whole package of word usage. I'm going a little Epi here, but I believe he is right when he says people tend to put specific words to make their points feel weaker than they are, so they don't really take responsibility for it. Hence the adverbs thing.

Nutella wants to throw shade at people but she also wants to let us know she is not sure about it. Fine. But she colors it with "lol"s and emotes to mae it look more friendly than she should considering the fact she is, you know, throwing shade at people. There is a disconnect between the tone and the actions.

First sentence she opens with a friendly lol then attacks Luna on meta. Then second sentence she backs down, davalues her own post, and finishes it with a friendly emote. Then third sentence she passes the ball to other people and asks for a wagon. It could be the Luna wagon she just offered, it could be someone else.

I could see a civ doing everything I just described, especially a careful civ like nutella, but I could also see the baddie line of thought behind the whole thing. I think it applies to the rest of the case you build on nutella, too. That's why she is so hard to read, her civ and bad metas are similar.
When Mac goes after the same post, DDL doubles down and then still tiptoes. Somehow. So DDL is doing the same thing that he's accusing nutella of, in a way. Only she masks it in humor and he in hesitance and 'careful' play. Which, of course, it could be.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sun Feb 03, 2019 10:32 am Guys how likely it is that a baddie nutella would off Mac to silence him?

WIFOM much?
I don't think the nutella case was serious. It has been a consistent thing, and right here is where DDL tries to bring it to the masses. And like everything else in this game, it gets ignored.
We've been sitting on town lynches for days, so like with Sloon/nutella, I have to question whether this was worth doing. It is worth trying to suggest a lynch when the game is self-destructing perfectly fine on its own?
But then again, this is a pretty opportunistic take, right or wrong. Not a difficult thing to throw out there.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sun Feb 03, 2019 3:50 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Sun Feb 03, 2019 2:38 pm do you guys seriously want to lynch me for "weasel words" what is it 2016???

I wonder if DDL really believes what he is saying because he has seen me play a lot in the last couple years and he must know that the "lols" etc are a hallmark of my civ style. He's harping a bit too much on this one thing and then going "well whatever her civ and bad metas are too similar so who knows" like he's soft-pushing an easy target but backing off/not taking responsibility
And what is a hallmark of your baddie style, then? Because last I checked you also do all those things when you are bad. Mac is right, you are not that obvious to read.

I'm not soft pushing, I'm putting all possibilities on the table. The way you are acting is perfectly reasonable for a baddie to act.

You say you are always on the fence, which is true, but then you use that as a shield to act the same way as bad and win games because no one wants to lynch "on the fence" nutella anymore.
Meta can go die in a fire.
This post doesn't look all that bad, in isolation. It's true. It's also really self-aware, and so it could be made from either perspective.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sun Feb 03, 2019 3:51 pm [VOTE: nutella] aubergine

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 05, 2019 6:58 am I proposed a nutella lynch. People didn't wanted. They wanted you or sprityo. I waited till the end to see which one to change to. You looked like the better wagon.

I'm not a super-hero, I can't guess who the scum is and force other people to vote for them.
Reywas didn't end up getting lynched, and DDL's follow-through the following day didn't look great. But then, there were a lor of people that ended up on Reywas. Hindsight bias here. My promised cynicism taints these posts, when really we'd have to look at Reywas' behavior. Obviously some of us thought Rey was bad or we wouldn't have voted there. If you look at these thinking Rey is bad, DDL's posts look a little low-effort but not horrible.

From DDL's side, though, the nutella/DDL interactions look somewhat team-compatible. DDL's tip-toeing, and then blaming the rest of town when they didn't want to lynch nutella... DDL doesn't want to commit. Either because he fears Miss Best Civilian 2019 or because he doesn't want to lynch a teammate. Given nutella's ISO, I lean former on that. But I see room for the latter.

So that's where my tentative town-clear on nutella came from. Occam still points to Sabie, but I don't want to have regrets.

Relevant things from my nutella ISO, regarding DDL (and apparently SVS, since I looked, she has some strong townreads on SVS pretty consistently):
I snipped out a lot of stuff from that ISO that wasn't about DDL/SVS.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Fri Feb 08, 2019 2:16 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Wed Jan 30, 2019 5:47 pm
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Jan 30, 2019 5:01 pm The way you start the sentence with "lol" before throwing shade at someone then saying you won't "necessarily" vote for them triggered my senses.
Come on you have played with me in the last year.
Between this and some later stuff, there is strooong anti-alignment here.

nutella wrote: ↑Wed Jan 30, 2019 6:43 pm Your tripping sense. SVS is obvtown.
....or is that just the recency bias speaking
Recency bias is the new meta? Thanks, I hate it. Nutella didn't need another waffle flavor.

<snip as time passes with posts not relevant to question>

Nutella's play seems to drop off significantly once the suspicion from mac happens. Around the time Sloonei comes into the game. Some suspicion on Reywas, looks about normal. A push at DDL once he tries to further the Mac suspicion. A push at me. A giant shrug at the townreads in the thread. Nothing that horrible, unless you conflate the motives for the DDL push with more no u at mac's case. Nothing that stands out and reverse pings me into town territory.
Spoiler: show

nutella wrote: ↑Sun Feb 03, 2019 2:38 pm do you guys seriously want to lynch me for "weasel words" what is it 2016???
I wonder if DDL really believes what he is saying because he has seen me play a lot in the last couple years and he must know that the "lols" etc are a hallmark of my civ style. He's harping a bit too much on this one thing and then going "well whatever her civ and bad metas are too similar so who knows" like he's soft-pushing an easy target but backing off/not taking responsibility

nutella wrote: ↑Mon Feb 04, 2019 5:02 pm
Lunalee wrote: ↑Mon Feb 04, 2019 5:00 pm [VOTE: DragonDLuffy] aubergine
His "how likely is it that nutella killed Mac for WIFOM" post just feels fishy to me. Almost like DDL is trying to push that as the narrative of what happened when it is just as likely that scum would kill Mac to frame nutella.
Ehh I think that post makes him look less likely to be responsible. He wouldn't so overtly call it out as being wifom, right?....or would he lol

But on the whole I think Rey looks worse. He is going after me for very shallow reasons and every new post has a new fake-looking take.

[VOTE: reywas] aubergine

nutella wrote: ↑Wed Feb 06, 2019 12:43 pm I am thinking g is right about ddl. I disagree with him on SVS, I think she is town, but ddl has felt off this whole game, none of his posts feel quite right and I think he is coming from a scummy place. Hope we get this right. [VOTE: ddl] aubergine. And I still would love some elaboration from sloonei about speed. I would be open to a speed vote if there is good reason.

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Feb 07, 2019 11:50 pm His posts in general have an awkward air about them, and he latched on to easy suspicions such as reywas and myself. This post in particular sticks out:
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Mon Feb 04, 2019 8:47 pm
G-Man wrote: ↑Mon Feb 04, 2019 8:40 pm Man O’Day! Are you kidding me? We’re taking the non-participant option on Day 3 after two consecutive mislynches AND down four confirmed civs? He better flip mafia or else it’s game over for the civs.
I agree. This sounds like the easy path to baddie victory.
[VOTE: Reywas] aubergine
I'll take the non-lazy option. At least there is some precedent to mafia faking meltdowns.
He pats himself on the back for not joining the "lazy" sprityo wagon when the alternative was another townie so easy for him to take advantage of.
Also, holy shit there are only 8 of us left so it's getting down to POE as well.

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Feb 07, 2019 11:53 pm Although in terms of POE the only players I'm remotely comfortable calling solid townreads are SVS and G-Man, and even those are only the lightest of greens. Any of you could be bad and I'm very uncomfortable.

Nutella and Mac and DDL have already exhausted discussion on this, but I want to know where everyone stands on nutella's alignment, specifically regarding the Enri lynch and the actions surrounding it. I don't want to false binary today, but my vote will likely end up sitting between Nutella and DDL, unless something changes my mind. I don't think they are aligned. Not as scum. Not as town.

And right now (having just finished nutella's ISO) nutella looks weirder. I still need to read DDL's posts more thouroughly

This was before I read DDL's progression/posts and decided to vote there instead.

Nutella's reasons for going after DDL (Does he really believe what he's saying? and The way he approached the Reywas lynch) don't seem like bussing reasons to me. Especially the first one. Here's why:
Nutella went after DDL with the "does he believe what he's saying" as a precursor to her main push on him. She was, I think, the first to really put DDL on the board. And that very first accusation delegitimizes his posts, making it harder for him to defend himself.
I've caught JJJ doing the bussing/distancing thing when he threw accusations at his teammates that could be explained away. But Nutella's accusations toward DDL are deep, regarding his motive. Hard to shake off.

It just doesn't strike me as bussing, because it's early, deep, and insightful. There was no reason for it.
I might be reading too deep into it, but that's what I saw from her end of things.

There's a bit more around this to consider, though.
-During the DDL lynch, nutella was on Luna instead of DDL. With the good suspicion she has above, that looks off, especially on a day where a mislynch would have ended the game. Lack of follow-through. Bad look.
-After setting up the scumread on DDL and townread on SVS (which, if she was playing the long game, she would have been setting up) nutella pivoted on SVS pretty quick. Good look.

I'll take a look at DDL's end of things, but I was already thinking the two were anti-aligned after reading just nutella's ISO.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Feb 12, 2019 12:29 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Feb 12, 2019 12:27 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Tue Feb 12, 2019 12:12 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Feb 12, 2019 12:11 pm
My gut and everything else tells me to go with sabie. I think this game was dead for the first 4 days and scum were just coasting by as we all lynched each other helplessly. I don’t think they felt the need to do anything extraordinary. Them we caught one, then another, and now there’s one exposed baddie left.
Agreed. Occam's razor and all that. I think this game really is that simple especially because as you said they'd been coasting for a while.
I can't help but tinfoil, though. We've had two days of easy lynches. Maybe that's just because Sabie's been busy and couldn't help her teammates, and they condemned themselves with their own interactions...

No stone left unturned, I guess would be my motto going into today. This comeback has been legendary and dropping the ball now without working through all our options would be awful.
Why did you clear nutella earlier?

Semi-cleared, based on DDL. I'll quote the posts that led to that in a minute.

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Feb 12, 2019 12:12 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Feb 12, 2019 12:11 pm
My gut and everything else tells me to go with sabie. I think this game was dead for the first 4 days and scum were just coasting by as we all lynched each other helplessly. I don’t think they felt the need to do anything extraordinary. Them we caught one, then another, and now there’s one exposed baddie left.
Agreed. Occam's razor and all that. I think this game really is that simple especially because as you said they'd been coasting for a while.

I can't help but tinfoil, though. We've had two days of easy lynches. Maybe that's just because Sabie's been busy and couldn't help her teammates, and they condemned themselves with their own interactions...

No stone left unturned, I guess would be my motto going into today. This comeback has been legendary and dropping the ball now without working through all our options would be awful.

Sabie's pretty much the POE default for today. We have the rest of the scumteam, one after another, and the roads led us here. The case on Sabie consists of: Compatibility with other scumflips, little-to-no strong town content, bad vote placement at critical junctures, the usual stuff. A laying-low scum, presumably, with a Hail Mary plan to push through one last day.

Sound about right?

Well, there are other questions I want to ask today. We've had the easy lynch turn up with results two days in a row. Feels like the scumteam might have discussed and readied this up, and so if we're lynching Sabie, I want to make sure there's no hard-bus alternative we're overlooking.

[mention]Sloonei[/mention], I want to look over your nutella suspicion today. I had cleared her as anti-aligned with DDL, and you disputed that yesterday. Show me why. Let's look into it and see if she'd be capable of twisting this endgame scenario into an easy frame.

[mention]sabie12[/mention] What is your case on Sloonei? I have him mostly cleared because of the way he approached the thread and got stuff moving. For a replacement, his votes have been good, and all his content has served as a way to wake up the thread. It feels like the game would have been over already if Sloonei hadn't posted as he did. But I want to look at everyone today.
[mention]nutella[/mention], I already pinged you but I want your input on this as well.

nutella wrote: ↑Mon Feb 11, 2019 10:15 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Feb 11, 2019 9:51 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Mon Feb 11, 2019 9:27 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Feb 11, 2019 9:22 pm sabie votes for me, which prompts a mildly interesting thought: her target the last few days has been luna. Now luna's been nightkilled. Do we think sabie would do that?
The way you are commenting on this makes me want to increase your percentage.
I think it’s worth talking about.

My answer was going to be “yes”, and my reasoning was going to be basically what she just laid out in her post above. If sabie is bad, she sees the writing on the wall. She needs to shake it up. An easy way to do that would be to kill off the person she’s been pushing suspicion against and see if she can shift some blame onto somebody else.

That’s exactly what she’s going for, in her own words.
I agree, but to answer your question in the following post, it also occurred to me that you could have done it in order to make the comment that you did to set up sabie.

I think that's too many levels of WIFOM. You think Sloonei is scum because he's prompting a reason to townread Sabie in order for her to overexplain it... so that Sloonei can double down and catch her in her own fake WIFOM?

I think?

Unless I'm missing your point. I think Sloonei's post is a good look on him.

RIP Luna.

I'll be around tomorrow, as much as is needed. Last day of the game, one way or another. Let's finish strong.

Lunalee wrote: ↑Mon Feb 11, 2019 5:04 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Feb 08, 2019 8:49 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Fri Feb 08, 2019 8:47 pm I'm feeling the Luna vote guys come on let's do it
me too

And SVS is her teammate.
Sloonei's "And SVS is her teammate" feels like so much TMI.

Can you explain the TMI thing here?

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Feb 11, 2019 12:15 pm And tomorrow should be 3 on 1, I think, which means we could no lynch to force an extra day. I don’t know if that would be totally necessary, but it’s an option.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Feb 08, 2019 9:01 pm Is it LyLo??? Is it MyLo? It's something like that, but we don't No Lynch in the Socky Awards.

I don't know how serious this was, but it's a thing.

I agree that Luna and SVS are probably unaligned.
And Sabie is more likely scum than anyone else.

Yep, those are things.

I'm going to be tinfoiling so hard tomorrow.

Whoa, Murder on the OWL Express won an award!? I didn't see that coming at all. Maybe someone appreciated the massive flavor that nobody had time to read.

Thanks, voters!

Lunalee wrote: ↑Sun Feb 10, 2019 8:26 pm I don't feel confident about this SVS wagon. She literally role-claimed early on that she had a two-shot ability and is aligned civ.

She never said what it was.

I'm running a dnd game tonight, but I'll see if I have time to step in. I'm cool with a SVS or Sabie lynch. Unless Sloonei is bad, those two are pretty likely. Or Luna, but I don't think she's been guile-y enough this game to be bad.

Apparently I forgot to vote Sabie earlier, but I'll vote SVS now. Good to consolidate wagons.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Feb 10, 2019 2:43 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Sun Feb 10, 2019 2:38 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Feb 10, 2019 2:31 pm nutella treats DDL with a bit more reservation. She never initiates anything against him, but supports cases that others have made against him. This is not out of character for a civilian nutella. She supports his lynch when he is the primary candidate, but switches the moment an alternative pops up during a likely MYLO. That's a concern.

Help.
DDL did mostly the same thing to her as well.

And who initiated that alternative? I know hindsight is 20/20, but it almost looks like you just set a trap for nutella.
Go ahead and look into me for that. I know my alignment. I don't know nutella's. I am speculating about her involvement, but there's nothing for me to speculate about regarding myself.

I'm not saying you can't investigate it, of course. Hypocrisy is a staple of the town picnic. Or something.

speedchuck
nutella
Sloonei
Lunalee
S~V~S
sabie12

Pretty simple rainbow. G-Man put in a lot of work, and I agree with the conclusions he and Sloonei posited.

Most likely case is that Sabie is scum with SVS or Luna, in that POE. That makes Sabie the most likely scum, and I will vote there for now.
DDL's death did basically clear nutella in my book, initially. I established beforehand that I was sure one of those two was scum, but not both. Sloonei makes some really good point, but damn it I want someone out my my POE. Sometimes a horse is just a horse. Besides, would DDL/Nutella make a long con in a game as low-effort as this one was for the first four days?
Sloonei feels town to me, but that's all I have to clear him. His vote doesn't look good, and on top of that, he's put forward a case where Sabie is most likely scum and yet he's voting SVS? I may have missed why he did that. I wouldn't discount a Sloonei pairing with someone in his POE.
linki: Sloonei appears to be doing a thing right now, so I'll withhold judgement on his vote until he finishes.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Feb 10, 2019 2:31 pm nutella treats DDL with a bit more reservation. She never initiates anything against him, but supports cases that others have made against him. This is not out of character for a civilian nutella. She supports his lynch when he is the primary candidate, but switches the moment an alternative pops up during a likely MYLO. That's a concern.

Help.

DDL did mostly the same thing to her as well.

And who initiated that alternative? I know hindsight is 20/20, but it almost looks like you just set a trap for nutella.

juliets wrote: ↑Sun Feb 10, 2019 12:04 am Finalists

Russtifinko
[/np][/b]

Wait, Russ played a game this year?

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Feb 09, 2019 10:55 pm Does anyone disagree with my POE of svs, sabie, and luna?

Catching up.

If I'm reading this correctly, G-Man made the argument that SVS and Luna are not on a scumteam together, coming off that last minute voteswitch.

If that is the case, and this POE is valid, then Sabie would have to be teammates with either SVS or Luna.

I'll catch up before I agree with the POE, but I'm just putting things together as I go.

I have been playing KHIII all day, but I'll be coming in tomorrow. RIP G-Man.

S~V~S wrote: ↑Fri Feb 08, 2019 9:55 pm

Jameson Abel <3

!!!!

Relation to you?

Lunalee wrote: ↑Fri Feb 08, 2019 9:26 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Fri Feb 08, 2019 9:21 pm So G-Man is town.

I am suddenly even more unsure as to the rest of you. Though, just looking at the votes... That was hella dangerous. I think we can figure out a lot from that.

linki: Might not be a good look for Luna either. This vote would have been easy to sway.
HOW IS THAT NOT A GOOD LOOK FOR ME. I ALMOST DIED.

Because you didn't?

If you were town, and the lynch was tied town-scum, it would have only taken a nudge. That nudge didn't happen for some reason.

We had a similar lynch back in... Mortal Kombat? Anyway, it might be that you just already had scum on you. There aren't that many scum in this game, and DDL wasn't on you...

Actually, yeah. It's likely that you had one or two scum on you. Sabie might also be scum. In that case, you'd be town.

So G-Man is town.

I am suddenly even more unsure as to the rest of you. Though, just looking at the votes... That was hella dangerous. I think we can figure out a lot from that.

linki: Might not be a good look for Luna either. This vote would have been easy to sway.

I missed the lynch and we're still alive. Whew.

My heart jumped into my throat when I saw it was after 7. Whew. Ugh.

I hear both Sloonei and Luna. In either case, we need solidarity. I'm not entirely certain on DDL. He does seem like the easiest lynch, and that's worrisome.

But I said the same damn thing yesterday. We saw how that turned out.

I'll be here enough to make sure the wagon isn't too split. That's all I can promise. LAN party will take most of my attention.

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