The Syndicate

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Mar 23, 2018 1:51 pm The exercise's insight may have been specific to dunya. Epignosis and I were also oft-named, but entering the game that wasn't likely to surprise anyone. dunya though, despite having performed very well in her earliest games on this site, hasn't had enough time to generate much play-based reputation -- and she was still named more than either of us (or anyone else). I probably should have cared more, but yanno. Everything seems clear when the answers are revealed.

I would have selected Dunya to avoid her being a civ.

colonialbob wrote: ↑Thu Mar 22, 2018 9:26 pm

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Thu Mar 22, 2018 9:22 pm Also all the plans involving perfectly predicted night actions.

*shrug* I still think the plan worked ok. It definitely made me suspicious of speed again. If I had agreed to lynch nutella or if we don't lose kenway the next night I think town pulls it off.

The plan would have completely screwed us over in the end if it weren't for Sig's role.

dunya wrote: ↑Thu Mar 22, 2018 7:32 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Mar 22, 2018 7:19 pm BTW, I don't know what the protocol is, but I think Dunya deserves credit for this scum win as well.

I did decent enough, but if I had not inherited a supahtown role, I'd have probably kicked the bucket much, much earlier.

Thanks for the praise! I couldn't have asked for a better replacement.

Proof of that is how we killed rabbit off so we didn't have to face you, and assumed lap may have been replaced and you'd take her place.

Thanks. :P Sorry I made you freak out. I check this site during down-time at work, and my work PC blocks Chatzy.

BTW, I don't know what the protocol is, but I think Dunya deserves credit for this scum win as well.

I did decent enough, but if I had not inherited a supahtown role, I'd have probably kicked the bucket much, much earlier.

Dunya got replaced because of some knowledge slip IIRC.

One other moment I wanted to look at. I nearly toasted myself by claiming DDL was town when Dunya targeted elsewhere. I managed to sell it as a host error somehow, while at work and unable to access Chatzy.
Granted, I was never given Dunya's targets, but still. I used and abused host discretion there.

That is my proudest mafia moment now, eclipsing my Phenon: Origins role use. So many times I thought my goose was cooked this game, but that one takes the cake.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Mar 22, 2018 5:57 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Mar 22, 2018 5:54 pm

colonialbob wrote: ↑Thu Mar 22, 2018 5:51 pm Congrats mafia! Sincerely, very well-played.

Thanks.

Thanks for being a good sport too.

(for the record, nutella isn't lying. I was trying to get her to put her vote on me and switch at the last second. Grr.)

And for the record, Kites, I've been directing you wherever I want every night since you were recruited into badguyia. Secondary power. Frustrating that you THOUGHT you targeted Kylemii, and it just happened to almost get me killed.

Considering you just won the game that begs the question... why were you?

I was afraid Sig would switch if Nutella suspiciously did not follow the plan.

sprityo wrote: ↑Thu Mar 22, 2018 5:57 pm “there’s no way you could’ve lynched I_D without stealing my vote”

... yeah.

I didn't know you had a double-vote. I've been behind on the game setup most of the time. I wish you hadn't had the doublevote.

[mention]Jackofhearts2005[/mention] Are you going to do a post-game writeup/rumination? I'm curious what you thought of this in the end.

colonialbob wrote: ↑Thu Mar 22, 2018 5:51 pm Congrats mafia! Sincerely, very well-played.

Thanks.

Thanks for being a good sport too.

(for the record, nutella isn't lying. I was trying to get her to put her vote on me and switch at the last second. Grr.)

And for the record, Kites, I've been directing you wherever I want every night since you were recruited into badguyia. Secondary power. Frustrating that you THOUGHT you targeted Kylemii, and it just happened to almost get me killed.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Mar 22, 2018 5:51 pm So Jay. How bout that Dunya.

[mention]JaggedJimmyJay[/mention]

Kites wrote: ↑Thu Mar 22, 2018 3:03 pm guys i have an idea

speedchuck stole nutella’s vote yeah?

so kites bob nutella vote for speed

speed and sig vote bob

if speed stole nutella vote he couldn’t have killed kyle and bob dies as scum. if speed killed kyle he didn’t steal nutella’s vote and speed dies as scum

but then again this can only work if there is 1 scum left so... thoughts?

If Sig is telling the truth, and there's only one scum, this works out.

If Sig is lying and scum, it doesn't work for me. He'll switch at the last second. So you're asking me to base town winning the game on Sig telling the truth.

As I've said earlier, I think Sig is being honest. I can go along with this. And I've worked it over in my head. Even adding backstories in there, I don't see much of a way that the killer was outside of Bob and I.

[VOTE: Cbob] aubergine

I would like other opinions, but even if we don't go with this plan, IDK if I will change my vote.

Kites wrote: ↑Thu Mar 22, 2018 1:55 pm

sig wrote: ↑Thu Mar 22, 2018 1:12 pm I'll be in and out until 5ish

@Kites Explain your Speed vote to me please

And I'd like everyone's thoughts on Nutella. She's pretty much gone afk this phase and her last minute vote for rdw the other phase doesn't look good also explain mechanically how she can't be mafia.

In writing my last few posts I've talked myself into a Bob lynch, I'll be willing to switch, but I need some other players feedback into his posts these last few days.

[VOTE: Bob] aubergine

i was sure that nutella was scum before you revealed this mafia brother thing, it messed everything up. we can’t be sure if kenway was bad or not, or if there’s 1 or 2 scum left, so the best thing to do is go after kyle’s killer and only two people could have killed him last night, bob or speed, and speed is being scummier imo

You're freaking kidding me.

"I was sure that nutella was scum but then I listened to Sig"
"Speedchuck is scum because he's listening to sig."

I'm not letting this game end on my mislynch because I took the time to puzzle things out.

Kites wrote: ↑Thu Mar 22, 2018 1:55 pm bob made this civ move first thing the day started but speed is just trying to spread sig wifom

What do you think the deal with Sig is? His story doesn't match what we've seen?
I think you're town. You are doing us a disservice by completely ignoring recent developments and pushing a conclusion hours early.

Kites wrote: ↑Thu Mar 22, 2018 12:57 pm dude if you’re town you would have voted for bob already cos you’d know that you’re town and he was the only person able to make the kill

[VOTE: speedchuck] aubergine

And if I'm mafia I wouldn't have? I don't know what point you're trying to make.

This game has like 5 mechanics per person in it. I'm gonna make damn sure I know where my vote is going before I vote.

In a game with misdirections around every corner, I'm not taking any chances.

sig wrote: ↑Thu Mar 22, 2018 12:51 pm I know for a fact, assuming my background isn't misleading that my brother is mafia and that I can't kill my brother if I target them.

So unless another role superseded my inability to kill my brother that would mean Kenway is mafia, but not my brother. And that Kyle was mafia and my brother. However, mafia killed Kyle and he was mafia so that has to leave Kenway.

And yes I'm being slightly OMGUS, since you seem to be attempting to turn the tables and get me lynched and I know I'm a civ.

Hammer us out a conclusion. Tell me what you think happened. This post feels self-contradictory.

Kites wrote: ↑Thu Mar 22, 2018 12:49 pm kenway didn’t reverse anything because he died before doing the action

Gotcha.

So I should vote Sig or cbob.

Possible worlds are:
KenwayxCbob
KenwayxSpeed
SigxAnyone

Is this wrong?

linki: okay wtf I'm confused.

Kites wrote: ↑Thu Mar 22, 2018 12:41 pm if kenway was scum he couldn’t have killed kyle because sig is faster. I know that nutella and sig couldn’t have killed kyle because i targeted him

so it was either bob or speed

That's a good point. Just to verify, though:

If Kenway was scum he could have reversed your action.
Abilities Kenway could have reversed last night:
-Votesteal (speed)
-Redirect (nutella)
-Redirect (cbob)
-Vigkill (Sig)
-Archer (Kites)
-Other Sage/mage type (Kylemii)

Do you think it likely that you might have been reversed?

Mechanically (some people have been keeping up with this better than me) is there anyone Sig could NOT be scum with, in the case of 2 scum left?

If Kenway was scum, is anyone cleared?

Okay.

Assuming Sig is telling the truth to the best of his knowlege, that basically makes Kenway mafia. There aren't enough roles left to handle the shenanigans that would somehow make Kylemii be the dead mafioso.

colonialbob wrote: ↑Thu Mar 22, 2018 12:14 pm Obviously I could be wrong, I just think it's significantly more likely there's another explanation that Sig swapped sides.

Maybe Iron_Dwarf was the brother and Sig noticed the update too late?

colonialbob wrote: ↑Thu Mar 22, 2018 12:05 pm I simply don't believe there's a mafia who flips as Town.

Why do you adamantly disagree with this? It's not exactly an unheard-of role.

Hm.

Way I see it, there are two likely options. Either there's one scum left, and Sig is clear, or Sig is lying scum and he's got a partner.

Discuss. We have just over 6 hours.

[mention]sig[/mention] How certain are you that Kenway/RDW was scum?

colonialbob wrote: ↑Wed Mar 21, 2018 2:34 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed Mar 21, 2018 1:11 pm I'm going to assume that everyone promoted by now.

cbob guided nutella, and this action was reversed by kenway (what does that even mean?)
Kenway reversed cbob?
nutella claimed to misdirect kenway

This weird 3-way catches my attention. Cbob (promoted merc) was supposed to affect nutella (promoted pegasus knight) with the help of Kenway (promoted Mage). But Nutella supposedly redirected Kenway.

Ignoring scum shenannigans, which of these actions had priority in this? What was the reverse supposed to do?
The only person who could clarify what happened aside from these two is dead. That makes the claims of targeting each other/Kenway convenient.

colonialbob, What were you hoping to accomplish with the help of Kenway?
nutella, Why redirect Kenway?

I was trying to block nutella.

"Fire - Each night, you may target another player and reverse their action. A nightkill will become a doctor, a guide will become a block, a track will become a reverse track, etc.
Promotes to Sage or Mage Knight"

I specifically checked with Jack to make sure the reversal would still affect my action if I used my bow. Bow should have priority over nutella's action:

"7) Bows are not weak or strong against other weapons but have a 100% chance to self guide against fliers. Bows allow players to retroactively effect actions of fliers that have already resolved. Example:

Spoiler: show

So if a flier blocks Player A and a sword infantry blocks the flier, Player A will still be blocked because the flier's action resolves first and the infantry player is too late to block the flier.

In the same scenario but with a bow user instead of a sword user attempting to block the flier, Player A will not be blocked because bow users can retroactively effect resolved flier actions.

If a bow user nightkills a flier and another infantry player doctors the flier, the flier will not die because the bow user is not "faster" than the other infantry player. He only gains the ability to effect resolved flier actions. He is not a flier himself.

"

Makes sense.

Bob is not scum with nutella, or Kenway would have screwed it up.

colonialbob wrote: ↑Wed Mar 21, 2018 2:37 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed Mar 21, 2018 1:12 pm For the record, as frustrated as I've been with Sig's lack of/choice of actions this game, I think he's town.

Even though he claimed to basically be independent?

He hasn't been playing like an independent, as far as I can tell. And if there are two baddies and an independent left, would you want to lynch the independent?

I don't think there even are independents.

I don't think sig was claiming one. I think sig was claiming something specific to his character, beyond his role and beyond his alignment.

For the record, as frustrated as I've been with Sig's lack of/choice of actions this game, I think he's town.

I'm going to assume that everyone promoted by now.

cbob guided nutella, and this action was reversed by kenway (what does that even mean?)
Kenway reversed cbob?
nutella claimed to misdirect kenway

This weird 3-way catches my attention. Cbob (promoted merc) was supposed to affect nutella (promoted pegasus knight) with the help of Kenway (promoted Mage). But Nutella supposedly redirected Kenway.

Ignoring scum shenannigans, which of these actions had priority in this? What was the reverse supposed to do?
The only person who could clarify what happened aside from these two is dead. That makes the claims of targeting each other/Kenway convenient.

[mention]colonialbob[/mention], What were you hoping to accomplish with the help of Kenway?
[mention]nutella[/mention], Why redirect Kenway?

If we're going to figure this out mechanically, here's a list

speedchuck votestole nutella
Sig vigged Kenway
cbob guided nutella, and this action was reversed by kenway (what does that even mean?)
Kenway reversed cbob
nutella claimed to misdirect kenway
Kites archered Kylemii
Kylemii reversed ???

This ignores any extra scumpowers from pinky (and ring if the death mass roleblock isn't the only thing)

colonialbob wrote: ↑Wed Mar 21, 2018 10:51 am

speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed Mar 21, 2018 10:35 am

colonialbob wrote: ↑Wed Mar 21, 2018 10:29 am Also "why claim the vig" I mean probably because all the roles are public?

No, I mean why claim the vig KILL? There are other ways that crit could have happened.

Kites or nutella, right? Except Kites is basically confirmed town, and he's screwed if he I blocked nutella, who I had targeted the previous night.

Also he's killing him in the writeup, so.

Oh. I hadn't read the write-up.

colonialbob wrote: ↑Wed Mar 21, 2018 10:29 am Also "why claim the vig" I mean probably because all the roles are public?

No, I mean why claim the vig KILL? There are other ways that crit could have happened.

sig wrote: ↑Tue Mar 20, 2018 10:24 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Mar 20, 2018 10:10 pm

sig wrote: ↑Tue Mar 20, 2018 10:04 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Mar 20, 2018 9:49 pm

sig wrote: ↑Tue Mar 20, 2018 9:46 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Mar 20, 2018 8:54 pm Explain fully. I must have missed something.

So you know I started coming from Badguya, today I was switched over to Rico's army. This would occur when two things happen.

I vig a mafia member
My brother, a mafia member, dies

Since I switched over that means Kenway, who I killed was mafia Kyle who mafia killed was mafia. Or in theory I guess rdw?

Either way someone who flipped within the last 72 hours couldn't have been a civ since I was switched to Rico's army.

hmm Points to Kenway I guess (rdw makes the least sense if you were just switched over after the night, and mafia killed kyle)

Yeah, I don't think we should focus to much on it and still act like this could be lylo, however I do believe one was mafia and we just have one left.

I mean, yeah we need to lynch scum today and we should consider all avenues, but this is one of them.

Whether or not we have 1 or 2 scum left matters, darn it. It changes the mechanically potential teams.

Yeah, looking at the way things have landed I'd say we can clear Nutella and I know I'm a civ.

I need to know why you cleared nutella.

colonialbob wrote: ↑Wed Mar 21, 2018 9:54 am

speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed Mar 21, 2018 9:42 am

colonialbob wrote: ↑Wed Mar 21, 2018 8:23 am I'm voting speed or Sig today. I could buy sig's whole "I'm neutral and I accidentally killed my brother who's mafia except he flipped town but really he's mafia" as a mafia endgame gambit. His kill last night was decidedly town unfriendly. But overall I trust Kites and since I know I didn't kill Kenway it has to be speed.

Why? Why the heck would Sig gambit that?

1. He's been saying it all game.
2. He's not under suspicion as much as you, me, or nutella.
3. It's not even a good lie.

He's been saying he's neutral all game?

He would have been after killing a townie. I don't care if he thought kenway was mafia or night, a vig last night is an anti-town play, period.

I mean, people are believing it, so if it is a lie it seems to be a good one?

Why gambit, then? Why even claim the vig in the first place?

I don't understand what you think Sig's goals are. If he's scum, why hasn't he been vigging on any other days? 2 scumkills would have ended this game like a week ago.

colonialbob wrote: ↑Wed Mar 21, 2018 8:23 am I'm voting speed or Sig today. I could buy sig's whole "I'm neutral and I accidentally killed my brother who's mafia except he flipped town but really he's mafia" as a mafia endgame gambit. His kill last night was decidedly town unfriendly. But overall I trust Kites and since I know I didn't kill Kenway it has to be speed.

Why? Why the heck would Sig gambit that?

1. He's been saying it all game.
2. He's not under suspicion as much as you, me, or nutella.
3. It's not even a good lie.

sig wrote: ↑Tue Mar 20, 2018 10:04 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Mar 20, 2018 9:49 pm

sig wrote: ↑Tue Mar 20, 2018 9:46 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Mar 20, 2018 8:54 pm Explain fully. I must have missed something.

So you know I started coming from Badguya, today I was switched over to Rico's army. This would occur when two things happen.

I vig a mafia member
My brother, a mafia member, dies

Since I switched over that means Kenway, who I killed was mafia Kyle who mafia killed was mafia. Or in theory I guess rdw?

Either way someone who flipped within the last 72 hours couldn't have been a civ since I was switched to Rico's army.

hmm Points to Kenway I guess (rdw makes the least sense if you were just switched over after the night, and mafia killed kyle)

Yeah, I don't think we should focus to much on it and still act like this could be lylo, however I do believe one was mafia and we just have one left.

I mean, yeah we need to lynch scum today and we should consider all avenues, but this is one of them.

Whether or not we have 1 or 2 scum left matters, darn it. It changes the mechanically potential teams.

Explain fully. I must have missed something.

[mention]sig[/mention] Kyle and Kenway are dead town

[mention]sig[/mention] Their alignments flipped, right?

I votestole nutella

Kylemii wrote: ↑Tue Mar 20, 2018 1:23 pm @speedchuck why did you cop gwilikers again?

He was instrumental in the plan.

I wanted to verify the validity of the results.

sig wrote: ↑Mon Mar 19, 2018 11:48 am Tomorrow we lynch nutella and we'll get another phase. Hopefully the mafia kill fails which would give us time and I suggest the vigs, if there are any left besides me, don't target anyone. I don't plan to either.

Did you target anyone last night?

colonialbob wrote: ↑Sun Mar 18, 2018 11:05 pm Join us speed

Fine

RDW narrows the pool significantly, but sig is more likely to be mafia. That's what I understand.

I could go for either one. I'm going to bed, so you guys decide here.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Sun Mar 18, 2018 11:01 pm i am enjoying the emotional journey your changes of avatar are taking me on

I had to change it for another game I was playing because reasons, and then when I moved to change it back to the conductor I found one that fit me better.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Sun Mar 18, 2018 11:01 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Sun Mar 18, 2018 10:57 pm

Kylemii wrote: ↑Sun Mar 18, 2018 10:51 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Sun Mar 18, 2018 10:50 pm

Kylemii wrote: ↑Sun Mar 18, 2018 10:39 pm hej hej, @speedchuck what were the specific nationalities of your pre-promote targets?

Lapluie was allyria

Everyone else was goodguyia

who was everyone else? was there anyone else who is still alive

Marmot, DDL

No

I was gonna check Gwil and make sure the plan worked

but it didn't work?

He died. He was also allyria.

Sorry, I'm tired. Should have added that.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Sun Mar 18, 2018 10:51 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Sun Mar 18, 2018 10:50 pm

Kylemii wrote: ↑Sun Mar 18, 2018 10:39 pm hej hej, @speedchuck what were the specific nationalities of your pre-promote targets?

Lapluie was allyria

Everyone else was goodguyia

who was everyone else? was there anyone else who is still alive

Marmot, DDL

No

I was gonna check Gwil and make sure the plan worked

Kylemii wrote: ↑Sun Mar 18, 2018 10:39 pm hej hej, @speedchuck what were the specific nationalities of your pre-promote targets?

Lapluie was allyria

Everyone else was goodguyia

So why are you not voting for Sig?

So sig or Kyle are scum either way.

Assuming you and Kenway are truthful

[VOTE: Sig] aubergine for now.

I see you guys watching. Tell me whats up. Why is Cbob on the chopping block, and why is nobody voting?

colonialbob wrote: ↑Sun Mar 18, 2018 5:55 pm

colonialbob wrote: ↑Sat Mar 17, 2018 2:35 pm Preliminary analysis, begore going back to look at vote trains and interactions:

If we lynch Sig...

... and he's mafia: doesnt narrow down his partner, IMO. It's pure WIFOM whether mafia killed gwil to protect or implicate RDW. That said, Kites can protect somebody from nutella, Kenway can lock down somebody else, and if Kyle helps me I can lock down a third person.

... and he's town: RDW is probably town, and mafia is probably speedunya/nutella.

If we lynch RDW...

... and he's mafia, Sig is almost definitely his partner.

... and he's town, Sig and speedunya are the next top priority and we try to lock down nutella too.

I still feel like RDW is mafia, which makes me want to lynch him. It has the side benefit of narrowing down our next move, too.

I would also vote Sig, if we want to go that way. I'm less convinced on nutella, the voting patterns just still don't make sense to me if she's mafia.

If nutella is town and the plan went according to... plan, then RDW is town, right?

Please, someone catch me up. I'm running on 4 hours of sleep here, and I'm not reading everything today.

I've been gone all weekend. What are we doing?