The Syndicate

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 21, 2019 8:42 pm Like every player but Jay and Nutella suspected me. Most players who suspect me suspect Nutella.

The proper victory path is to shoot someone who would vote me and later use that as excuse to “reevaluate” Nutella to open up the mislynch pool.

Shooting Jay means I can’t mislynch Jay, have a much much harder time mislynching Epi and have a way higher chance to get lynched myself.

I would assume scum Nutella would have a similar thought process. I can’t imagine she’s scum here.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Sep 21, 2019 8:43 pm NKA is wifom bunk

[mention]MacDougall[/mention]

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Sep 22, 2019 5:01 pm Looks like we’re about to mislynch Jack.

You’re dead so probably not.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Sun Sep 22, 2019 11:25 am
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 22, 2019 11:16 am So....this game did not have Hack Frost or Dante from the Devil May Cry series in it.
I did choose good personas as flavor when giving Dragomir his options. One of them could have been Jack Frost. (But it wasn't.)

Run your own Persona Mafia, my friend. If you based it on personas instead of Phantom Thieves, it would be a very different game (and also not a heist)

Lol the problem is that I never finish rpgs.

I’ve literally been playing FF8 for over half my life and have yet to make it to the third disk (of four).

I’m in the middle of 4 SMT games.

So....this game did not have Hack Frost or Dante from the Devil May Cry series in it.

Fun game regardless and the town probably would have still won.

Yeeeeeeeeah. Luckily, Speed is gonna be too sleep deprived to be too upset.

Lol I wanted it to be Jay.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sat Sep 21, 2019 8:52 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 21, 2019 8:45 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Sep 21, 2019 8:36 pm Did you not notice Jay decide I was mafia?
I haven read the end of the night, no.

Been working overtime and going to a funeral. :-/
I am sorry you are bereaved.

Thanks, man.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Sep 21, 2019 8:36 pm Did you not notice Jay decide I was mafia?

I haven read the end of the night, no.

Been working overtime and going to a funeral. :-/

Like every player but Jay and Nutella suspected me. Most players who suspect me suspect Nutella.

The proper victory path is to shoot someone who would vote me and later use that as excuse to “reevaluate” Nutella to open up the mislynch pool.

Shooting Jay means I can’t mislynch Jay, have a much much harder time mislynching Epi and have a way higher chance to get lynched myself.

I would assume scum Nutella would have a similar thought process. I can’t imagine she’s scum here.

I don’t think Nutella shoots Jay here right?

I certainly wouldn’t either.

Mac wants to lynch Nutella and Jack. Iirc Drago says the same.

Jay wanted to lynch Epi.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Fri Sep 20, 2019 10:58 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 20, 2019 10:57 pm
Epignosis wrote: ↑Fri Sep 20, 2019 10:54 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 20, 2019 10:52 pm Epi and Jay are my strongest scumreads.

I kinda want to swap Jay for Creature but I’m lynching Epi before either of them not just cause he’s a bigger suspect but a town Epi means his Creature suspicion is real and Jay’s Epi suspicion is wrong, making them each more likely to be bad.
Not necessary when a Jack mafia lynch happens and the game is over.
I’m not wrong when I say this suspicion is convenient out outta left field am I?
Everything I've said and done has been out of left field. Nobody should listen to what I have to say.

You heard it here first, folks. Don’t lynch Jack.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Fri Sep 20, 2019 10:54 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 20, 2019 10:52 pm Epi and Jay are my strongest scumreads.

I kinda want to swap Jay for Creature but I’m lynching Epi before either of them not just cause he’s a bigger suspect but a town Epi means his Creature suspicion is real and Jay’s Epi suspicion is wrong, making them each more likely to be bad.
Not necessary when a Jack mafia lynch happens and the game is over.

I’m not wrong when I say this suspicion is convenient out outta left field am I?

but a town Epi means his Creature suspicion is real and Jay’s Epi suspicion is wrong, making them each more likely to be bad.

This logic might go both ways and the conclusion might just be wrong because of it.

Epi and Jay are my strongest scumreads.

I kinda want to swap Jay for Creature but I’m lynching Epi before either of them not just cause he’s a bigger suspect but a town Epi means his Creature suspicion is real and Jay’s Epi suspicion is wrong, making them each more likely to be bad.

Dragomir wrote: ↑Fri Sep 20, 2019 10:45 pm I'm gonna lower it down further to Nutella and Jack.

Well that’s problematic.

Why do you trust Epi?

Why do you not trust me and Nutella?

Nutella having a post restriction (I think) makes her fall into her scum meta in a way that isn’t actually her scum meta. Like she coasts way more as a wolf.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Fri Sep 20, 2019 10:40 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 20, 2019 10:37 pm Kinda annoyed Rej lynched himself but we probably still can make a winning POE pretty easily considering my townreads on Nutella, Mac and Drago.

Probably 7 players in the morning which is probably 6 vs 1. 3 starting scum plus an indy means only 7 starting townies, which is pretty harsh odds to I'm assuming there is only 1 left.

So we should have 3 tries to find the baddie. That's totally doable.

Linki: Bad what?
As in mafia. As in Tony's partner.

What happened to your townread on me?

Kinda annoyed Rej lynched himself but we probably still can make a winning POE pretty easily considering my townreads on Nutella, Mac and Drago.

Probably 7 players in the morning which is probably 6 vs 1. 3 starting scum plus an indy means only 7 starting townies, which is pretty harsh odds to I'm assuming there is only 1 left.

So we should have 3 tries to find the baddie. That's totally doable.

Linki: Bad what?

sprityo wrote: ↑Thu Sep 19, 2019 1:47 pm OKAY

sorry, I got fucked over somehow and couldn’t reply or PM anyone

I’m any case I switch my vote to rej because it was like 2 minutes left and it was either break the tie or not

Thanks I hate it.

#letitrand

I’m kinda coming around on you Jay so shoot someone else.

There are corner cases where self voting is protown (vengeful, if it’ll solve the game) but mostly it’s either throwing or appeal to emotion by pretending to throw and I’m not really a fan of either of those.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Sep 19, 2019 11:06 am We have a few reads playing an important role in the current situation that I don’t understand, and it’s important that we talk about them while there’s still time. I hope the time isn’t a huge issue.

MacDougall, I already asked why Rej is a civilian, but I also want to know about Epignosis. Likewise, nutella is outside my POE and won’t be my vote without an argument of some kind. I provided the reasons I saw to read her as a civilian. If I’m wrong I need help getting there.

Jackofhearts2005, why are you moderately certain sprityo is a civilian?

If these are gut reads, please don’t just say that. We’re late enough in the game that we can substantiate things. Point to one or more posts.

He’s too aggressive? Idk. I feel like I had a decent reason and then I started multigaming.

[VOTE: Epi] aubergine

I don’t even have much of a townread on Rej anymore [mention]JaggedJimmyJay[/mention]. But I like an Epi lynch better.

sprityo wrote: ↑Wed Sep 18, 2019 4:10 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 18, 2019 3:13 pm
sprityo wrote: ↑Wed Sep 18, 2019 1:57 pm also:
[VOTE: jackofhearts2005] aubergine
I’m moderately convinced you’re town at this point so get better reads.
Ya but why

Why what?

[VOTE: Jay] aubergine but I might follow him and lynch Epi. We’ll see.

sprityo wrote: ↑Wed Sep 18, 2019 1:57 pm also:
[VOTE: jackofhearts2005] aubergine

I’m moderately convinced you’re town at this point so get better reads.

Morning. When does the day end?

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:12 pm I've witnessed mafia do stupid shit so many times that it fails to surprise me anymore.

I don’t even bother with @maybe they were misdirected.” They never are.

Dragomir wrote: ↑Tue Sep 17, 2019 4:03 pm [VOTE: Rej] aubergine

You know you're ruining half my townread of Rej, right?

What's the problem with Rej in one sentence only? I know you've stated it several times but boil it down to the most basic component.

I assume you think the Rej counterwagon is because town Jay and town Epi actually suspected the other wolf and so Tony voted there as distancing. That's not impossible. Lots of things are more possible with only 2 wolves.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Sep 17, 2019 2:27 pm General question for the viewing audience with respect to Epignosis:

When we like him, is it because of his tone or because of his content?

Content. His content is a mixed back but his tone is basically the same for town and scum Epi imo. Like his tone changes more based on how sports teams or students are doing than his alignment. I try to ignore Epi's tone when it comes to reading him.

Creature wrote: ↑Tue Sep 17, 2019 3:28 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Thu Sep 12, 2019 12:56 pm Mac and creature can be my towncore
Someone questioned about TSP putting me in his towncore.

What about this then?

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Sep 17, 2019 2:37 pm "Man… you guys are the best, stupidest group I could ask for."

Lol is this a post restriction?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Sep 17, 2019 2:34 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 17, 2019 2:33 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 17, 2019 2:32 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:00 am
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Sep 14, 2019 9:03 am Creature Jack Mac are probably my “town core” so there’s some overlap on the lists at least
One of these things is not like the others.

I say this is rule of 3 wifom bullshit and Creature is town.
I don't care about "rule of three". Creature stands out on that list. No clue why he warrants "town core" alongside two of the most active players.

You don't care about a lot of things that are inconvenient.

Why does Tony include a nonconsensus towncore read? To draw attention to that player.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:13 am I think with respect to the potential distancing vote from Tony, there's a clear distinction:

When Tony voted for me, he literally called it a "challenge". He broadcasted that vote to the universe.

When Tony voted for Epignosis, he bailed on it immediately without even mentioning that it had existed.

He bailed on your vote really quick too.

I think anything from Tony as of him voting you is pretty wifom-y.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 17, 2019 2:32 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:00 am
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Sep 14, 2019 9:03 am Creature Jack Mac are probably my “town core” so there’s some overlap on the lists at least
One of these things is not like the others.

I say this is rule of 3 wifom bullshit and Creature is town.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:00 am
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Sep 14, 2019 9:03 am Creature Jack Mac are probably my “town core” so there’s some overlap on the lists at least
One of these things is not like the others.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:35 pm
Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:29 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:28 pm
Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:26 pm After all that, what is your opinion of Mac, JJJ?
Civilian. A back-and-forth shit-toss over nothing is on-brand in the Mac/JJJ dynamic, and I still favor my interactive analysis.
Good. I agree.
Does this imply then that nutella is bad?

Like what is this? Nutella is not is Jay's POE.

I guess it kinda feels like Jay tries to widen the POE and then when people point this out, he's like "What are you talking about? Here is my POE, which is standard but just swapping myself for Rej."

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Sep 17, 2019 2:16 pm A)

> The game started 9:2.
> Currently 8:1
> 3 mislynches available

B)

> The game started 8:3
> Currently 7:2
> 2 mislynches available

C)

> The game started 8:2:1
> Currently 7:1:1
> probably at least 2 non-mafia lynches (good chance of three) available with mystery indy wrinkles

IMO, in order of probability: A > C > B. There is a precedent for 8:3 though (Vanilla Mafia, another heist), so I suggest a better-safe-than-sorry approach. As such, ideal POE pools should feature 2 (mislynches) + 2 (living mafia) OR 3 (mislynches) + 1 (living mafia) = 4 players.

POEs of four for the win. At the moment I am feeling this:

Creature
sprityo
Epignosis
Rej

Or maybe I'm not feeling it. Idk.

If there's an indy role and I didn't rand it, I will be annoyed because the obvious indy for this theme is

Spoiler: show

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:08 pm Night 1 after a day 1 Mafia lynch. Super town Jay is in hot takes mode.

It feels to me like you are currently trying to open up strings of wrong minded case making everywhere. Pushing Dragomir towards me, opening up suspicion lines towards Epignosis, humouring the bussing case. You are not operating with the narrow minded focus towards tried and true scum huntign methodology. It also feels like your interaction analysis was tokenistic because it really proved nothing.

I also do not sense the "I better get my shit in" Jay that is ever present on night 1 after a Mafia death.

So you're either Mafia or you are using this game to experiment with your meta.

I'm honestly feeling this from Jay.

Spoiler: show

Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Sep 16, 2019 10:53 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 16, 2019 10:48 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Sep 16, 2019 10:44 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 16, 2019 10:31 pm
Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Sep 16, 2019 10:15 pm Tony got bussed. I'm sold. He's waving flags at his accusers and trying to mask which one did it.
Jay’s late vote aside, my problem is that the Tony wagon is exactly all my townreads before Tony flipped.

I agree Tony went into antispew somewhere around the point he voted for Jay.
I agree with both of you in that I do think that Tony was bussed, but I do not think that it makes sense to have been a decision that was made before he was placed under pressure. I don't think it makes sense for me to have both introduced the suspicion and then bussed, but at some point I can buy that he and his partner started to feel like it was a lost cause and it turned into a bus, and that is exactly how I felt in the heat of the moment when I belaboured the point that I thought you were doing exactly that.
Yeah but I’m town.

I get that Tony was a lost cause at some point so maybe that’s a good look for Epi not voting for him.

But why is Tony’s partner not one of the players absent at EOD?
You and I have never been on a team, have we?

I consider myself an honorary member of Princess Epi's heroic trio but otherwise, no.

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Sep 17, 2019 1:59 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 17, 2019 1:57 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Sep 17, 2019 11:32 am
Dragomir wrote: ↑Tue Sep 17, 2019 11:26 am
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Sep 17, 2019 10:59 am So I was thinking over the Mafia game while enjoying a nice shower as I am often wont to do, and I found myself stuck in a particular place:

Even within my POE, I have seen glimmers of things that look like civilians (Epignosis, Creature, and sprityo). I cannot pretend that lynching them would be something that gives me immense confidence, particularly with busser tinfoil ever-present. However, there's a direction that will all tend to point, when everyone seems like they can be fine.

Long Con.
What about him?
He's the only player remaining for whom I can identify nothing of any potentially civilian orientation. There's no reason it can't just be him.
If Jay killed LC after posting this, that's really funny and really good wine.
"This effin' rocks!"

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Sep 17, 2019 11:32 am
Dragomir wrote: ↑Tue Sep 17, 2019 11:26 am
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Sep 17, 2019 10:59 am So I was thinking over the Mafia game while enjoying a nice shower as I am often wont to do, and I found myself stuck in a particular place:

Even within my POE, I have seen glimmers of things that look like civilians (Epignosis, Creature, and sprityo). I cannot pretend that lynching them would be something that gives me immense confidence, particularly with busser tinfoil ever-present. However, there's a direction that will all tend to point, when everyone seems like they can be fine.

Long Con.
What about him?
He's the only player remaining for whom I can identify nothing of any potentially civilian orientation. There's no reason it can't just be him.

If Jay killed LC after posting this, that's really funny and really good wine.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Sep 17, 2019 11:53 am Exercise: imagine we have somehow confirmed with the most advanced Mafia technology on the market that there was indeed a busser in the Day 1 lynch.

Please rank the Tony voters in order of most-to-least likely busser based on whatever criteria you feel is most important.

If you don't think it was a busser, oh well. We need to cover all the bases, eh?

Jay -> Rej -> Nutella -> Mac -> Drago

Yeah, Long Con was in pretty much everyone's POE. No idea why he would have been shot.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Sep 16, 2019 10:36 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 16, 2019 10:31 pm
Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Sep 16, 2019 10:15 pm Tony got bussed. I'm sold. He's waving flags at his accusers and trying to mask which one did it.
Jay’s late vote aside, my problem is that the Tony wagon is exactly all my townreads before Tony flipped.

I agree Tony went into antispew somewhere around the point he voted for Jay.
How did Tony's lynch change things for you with regard to other people? If that's your meaning.

For my townreads? It didn't.

sprityo wrote: ↑Mon Sep 16, 2019 10:29 pm
Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Sep 16, 2019 10:15 pm Tony got bussed. I'm sold. He's waving flags at his accusers and trying to mask which one did it.
I can get behind this theory

Later...

Sprityo: Or maybe it was a player who wasn’t around.

Cool cool.

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