The Syndicate

If I pretend GMan and Ted aren’t on the Master team and I assume Dom was right on Juliets....two of Jay/Sloonei/Epi were on Mac’s team.

My gut says if we’re being lead down the wrong path, it’s by Jay and that if someone is putting in the right effort at the right times to avoid lynch, it’s Sloonei.

I have a history of pushing on these players when they’re townies.

I thought Jay was obviously bad the last time I saw him being bad but I was already dead by then. He was pushing bad cases. Idk of the TH one counts. (Frustrating when townies allow themselves to be lynched. We can’t all be me.)

I’m gonna have to do my own isos n shit.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 3:01 am There's a lot of game-resolving potential in this approach. I'd like to see how everyone delineates the numbers. Divide the mafia into teams if you like, or don't. Just tell me who the five civilians other than yourselves are and the rest is dandy.

Civilians:
juliets
Jackofhearts2005
Michelle
TonyStarkPrime
Tranq

Independent:
Sloonei

Mafia:
Epignosis
G-Man
speedchuck
tedxtr



That's my first instinctive go at it. I may try a few of these divisions on and align them to team compatibility to see what feels best. If every civilian does this, I think it will be quite difficult for the mafia to blend.

I 100% disagree that this will make it hard for scum to blend.

But I 100% agree it is still useful.

Town
Jack
Juliets
Tony
Michelle
??????

Indy
??????

If I’m trying to put Sloonei, Epi and Jay into those two spots, it means I don’t have room from Tranq, GMan or Ted in my town/indy area.

The idea that we should lynch the two least impactful players and another one in the bottom half is really sketchy. Like I think I’ve been fooled somewhere.

It is frustrating not being sure why Dom thought Juliets was town and then why Juliets thinks Epi and Speed are town. Ie how much is mechanics and how sound the mechanical/non mechanical thoughts are.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:14 am Napkin math: 3 people at level 1, we’ve decided that at least one is scum. Roughly 1 in 3 if only 1. At level 2, 6 people, 2-3 scum. better odds.

Or it doesn’t matter because it wasn’t only the lower level that got lynched it a special reward for winning the top level.

juliets wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 8:28 am RIP Dom, I hate that you are gone.

I'm going to modify - I think it was Jack's statement - a little bit. Dom trusted me but I don't have the same trust in speed as I do in Jack and Epi.

I am most persuaded by Jack's argument that one of Epi or ted (or Jack I guess) must be bad or the main layer from Inception day contained no one who was bad. That just seems impossible to me. I'm going to put a vote on ted now but I'm still listening and digging.

I don’t think that’s necessarily the case.

You trust Epi. And you still trust Jay?

So who else is town?

Michelle wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 2:09 am

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 1:40 am

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 1:37 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Mar 14, 2020 11:52 pm I believe Sloonei and juliets are civilians. That hasn't always been the consensus. Those who disagree: say your piece and I will listen.

There are only 5 civies left. Add you and me.

Is there only one civilian in Speed, Tranq, Tony, Epi, Ted?

Wait wait. 11 players. 3 vs 1 vs 1 vs 6.

Six civies. So two in Speed, Tranq, Tony, Epi, Ted, Michelle and GMan.

Is that reasonable?

I think it's half of a thought ...can you show me why are you clearing anyone ?

Copy pasted from the poll:

Epignosis
juliets
Jackofhearts2005 - green peeked
Michelle - in Jack's poe
JaggedJimmyJay - Jack reads him civvie in the quoted post.
Sloonei
G-Man - in Jack's poe
speedchuck - in Jack's poe
tedxtr - in Jack's poe
TonyStarkPrime - in Jack's poe
Tranq - in Jack's poe

Fill up the blancs with your thoughts on everyone please.

It’s a hypothetical.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 1:37 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Mar 14, 2020 11:52 pm I believe Sloonei and juliets are civilians. That hasn't always been the consensus. Those who disagree: say your piece and I will listen.

There are only 5 civies left. Add you and me.

Is there only one civilian in Speed, Tranq, Tony, Epi, Ted?

Wait wait. 11 players. 3 vs 1 vs 1 vs 6.

Six civies. So two in Speed, Tranq, Tony, Epi, Ted, Michelle and GMan.

Is that reasonable?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Mar 14, 2020 11:52 pm I believe Sloonei and juliets are civilians. That hasn't always been the consensus. Those who disagree: say your piece and I will listen.

There are only 5 civies left. Add you and me.

Is there only one civilian in Speed, Tranq, Tony, Epi, Ted?

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Mar 14, 2020 11:07 pm Dom has to have had a pretty good idea of who’s who

He trusted Juliets, who trusted Speed.

If I suggest that one of Epi or Ted has to be mafia and further, is likely the Antimonitor because Sig shouldn't have been able to take both his teammates off the main thread, what would we say?

Or do we think it even mattered given the whole "most total votes dies" thing?

Epi, is Ted a baddie?

I'm not that motivated to try to find the Antimonitor tbh. It's a one player threat in a large game.

Michelle wrote: ↑Sat Mar 14, 2020 11:15 am

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 14, 2020 9:59 am Like I want it to be Jay but that’s not what wagonomics is telling me.

So you are sure of Dom being a civvie here?

I’m pretty good at reading Dom at this point and he’s really town.

I want it to be Jay because these no pause between “we double lynched town” and trying to lynch Epi and Ted.....who are what D4 says should be scum.

Mixed messaging. Recommend restarting your computer.

Like I want it to be Jay but that’s not what wagonomics is telling me.

Also, if Epi or Ted isn’t scum, I call shenanigans on having an entirely town first level D4.

Michelle wrote: ↑Sat Mar 14, 2020 5:19 am Polls of the days, I think who was in the other dream level in day 4 should bring to light that poll too.

Day 1 :
1 Dizzy - Tony
1 Jack - Spityo
1 JJJ - Radishes
6 Radishes - JJJ, Ted, Svs, Michelle, Sloonei, Dizzy
1 Nanook01 - Sig
6 Nutella01 - Nanook01, Turnip, Sabie, Jack, Mac, Dom
2 Speed - Epi, Nutella01

Day 2

1 GMan - Ted
7 Mac - Speed, Sig, Jack, Dom, Sabie, Sprityo, Nanook02
9 Radishes - Tony, JJJ, Svs, Sloonei, Epi, Juliets, Mac, Colin, Turnip
2 Sloonei - Dizzy, GMan
3 Turnip - Michelle, Tranq, Radishes

Day 3

2 Jack - Turnip, Mac
10 Mac - Ted, Tony, GMan, Jack, Michelle, Nanook, Sig, Sprityo, Epi, Tranq
8 Sig - Colin, Svs, Sloonei, Dom, Speed, Nutella02, JJJ, Juliets

Day 4 main poll

3 Nanook02 - Epi, Sprityo, TurnipHead
5 Sprityo - Dom, Colin, Ted, Nanook02, Jack

Day 4 poll in a dream level

1 Juliets - Michelle
3 Michelle - Speed, Sloonei, JJJ
2 Speed - GMan, Juliets

Day 5

4 JJJ - Tranq, Colin, Dom, Epi
1 Nanook02 - Sig
10 Sig - Ted, Speed, Nanook02, TurnipHead, Sloonei, Juliets, Michelle, JJJ, Jack, TSP

Day 6

8 Colin - Dom, Michelle, Tranq, Juliets, Jack, Epi, JJJ, Speed
4 Speed - GMan, TSP, TurnipHead, Colin
1 Ted - Sloonei

Spoiler: show

Coloring in gray the main text helps me to increase the light on phone to better see the colours sorry if looks bad on pc

and in next spoiler i will colour me in a light green because I know my AI and also Jack because he said he is confirmed villager

Spoiler: show

Day 1 :
1 Dizzy - Tony
1 Jack - Spityo
1 JJJ - Radishes
6 Radishes - JJJ, Ted, Svs, Michelle, Sloonei, Dizzy
1 Nanook01 - Sig
6 Nutella01 - Nanook01, Turnip, Sabie, Jack, Mac, Dom
2 Speed - Epi, Nutella01

Day 2

1 GMan - Ted
7 Mac - Speed, Sig, Jack, Dom, Sabie, Sprityo, Nanook02
9 Radishes - Tony, JJJ, Svs, Sloonei, Epi, Juliets, Mac, Colin, Turnip
2 Sloonei - Dizzy, GMan
3 Turnip - Michelle, Tranq, Radishes

Day 3

2 Jack - Turnip, Mac
10 Mac - Ted, Tony, GMan, Jack, Michelle, Nanook, Sig, Sprityo, Epi, Tranq
8 Sig - Colin, Svs, Sloonei, Dom, Speed, Nutella02, JJJ, Juliets

Day 4 main poll

3 Nanook02 - Epi, Sprityo, TurnipHead
5 Sprityo - Dom, Colin, Ted, Nanook02, Jack

Day 4 poll in a dream level

1 Juliets - Michelle
3 Michelle - Speed, Sloonei, JJJ
2 Speed - GMan, Juliets

Day 5

4 JJJ - Tranq, Colin, Dom, Epi
1 Nanook02 - Sig
10 Sig - Ted, Speed, Nanook02, TurnipHead, Sloonei, Juliets, Michelle, JJJ, Jack, TSP

Day 6

8 Colin - Dom, Michelle, Tranq, Juliets, Jack, Epi, JJJ, Speed
4 Speed - GMan, TSP, TurnipHead, Colin
1 Ted - Sloonei

Epi and Sloonei look worst from this.

Michelle wrote: ↑Sat Mar 14, 2020 1:42 am

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:28 pm Fingers crossed.

There is no way for you to not have a reaction after the flip when 2 mins before flip you were so innocently waiting the result.

I was playing video games.

I’m green peeked and personally skewered a member of the mafia that has the cloak on it.

I’m not scum. I’m likely dead tonight.

Yeah, finishing Phantasy Star III is gonna be less depressing than this thread.

Fingers crossed.

Michelle wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:01 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:58 am

Michelle wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:56 am

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:11 am Michelle and Sabie are never getting switched -- you don't BD two teammates.
And TH isn't flipping AM because then he never shoots his teammate. So TH is limited to the Master scum team, and if he tried to shoot Michelle then they aren't on the same team.

TH is like claiming vig here isn't it?
The role may be:
"Jack of all Trades - You begin the game with four one-shot powers: doctor, vigilante, tracker, and roleblocker."

How come he had a refill last night? This sounds like a lie.
He claimed he tried again to shoot but he was blocked. I think we have to thanks Nanook02 for this block.

Claiming is against the rules except with items. I'll leave you to review the rest yourself.

i forgot about that.

This is kinda dumb but I find this to be a townie mindset. A townie is ready to claim because they can claim and could forget that they aren't allowed to. A mafia players cannot readily claim and remembers this is fine because they can't be forced to. Thus, scum either doesn't expect players to try to claim or feels that when they do so, they are bending the rules. Michelle does not feel this way because she is town.

Dom wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:02 am [VOTE: Turnip Head] aubergine

Dom, we're already lynching TH via secret vote.

TH probably just in antispew so that's nice.

Like if I was in his position, I'd be lighting this thread on fire with everything I could muster to get out of the situation or to give the town something they could use.

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:56 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:44 pm

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:00 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:50 pm @JaggedJimmyJay @Epignosis @Michelle @Sloonei @speedchuck @Tranq @Dom @TonyStarkPrime @juliets @ColinIsCool

Does anyone townread TH? He seems to be the most consensus suspect and I would rather agree to focus elsewhere and lynch him via secret ballot if there's no way he's escaping lynch anyway.

So speak now so we can organize this.

I do, I did an ISO a while back and walked away satisfied. I don’t remember Jay’s ISO but I guess I should check it out if that’s what’s motivating most people

Can you be more specific?

About which part. Being satisfied? I think we’ve talked about this before. I basically found myself mind-melding with TH.

But TH keeps saying things that are wrong with no explanation.

Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:55 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:54 pm

Is it... is it too late?

Laughing at Epi.

Maybe Dom just likes Star Trek.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:47 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:47 pm Meh. [VOTE: Coliniscool] aubergine

Can you be more specific?

"Colin's readlist and explanations for his reads are meh and he has wolf equity."

Linki: I love you, Dom.

Meh. [VOTE: Coliniscool] aubergine

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:00 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:50 pm @JaggedJimmyJay @Epignosis @Michelle @Sloonei @speedchuck @Tranq @Dom @TonyStarkPrime @juliets @ColinIsCool

Does anyone townread TH? He seems to be the most consensus suspect and I would rather agree to focus elsewhere and lynch him via secret ballot if there's no way he's escaping lynch anyway.

So speak now so we can organize this.

I do, I did an ISO a while back and walked away satisfied. I don’t remember Jay’s ISO but I guess I should check it out if that’s what’s motivating most people

Can you be more specific?

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Sat Feb 29, 2020 6:38 pm

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sat Feb 29, 2020 2:46 pm Also excuse me but vote analysis can still be done. For example, people voting nutella over radishes are slightly higher chance to be scum.

Only if Radishes is scum, though, right? Or am I missing something

This reads like someone who doesn't know Radishes is scum. Could read like someone that knows Radishes isn't on the master scum team.

Shrugging at the Mac case and voting Sig may be what wolfJack and wolfTony would do but not every wolf plays thataway.

TH and Speedchuck stand out as the players with the weirdest reaction to Mac vs Sig. That is, TH voted SIg, then tried to switch to me. Speed flip flopped between Sig and Mac.

I should go dig into the D2 lynch again.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:17 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:14 pm Players I think are pretty freaking town: Tony, Dom, Juliets
Players I think are quite town but I have tinfoil: Michelle, Jay, Epi, Ted, Sloonei
Players I barely have any thoughts about at all: Tranq, Colin, Speed, Gman
Players I suspect but have whatever the opposite of tinfoil is on: TH

See this read list?

This is a problem. This is what a readlist that is going to lose the game because you've got a POE of 10 players that could be any alignment looks like.

If at least 2 of the master's team are in TH, Colin, Speed, that wouldn't be all that surprising and I think we'll be in a good place.

Worth mentioning is that Sabie was killed at night, two of three kills have missed, and the scum team took out Nanook2 by mistake. So it's actually possible that the "traditional leaders that seem mostly town" group aka Jay, Sloonei and Epi, doesn't include any wolves and they're all still alive because of good night action play by the town and lucky busdrives, not because they're in fairly deep.

[mention]S~V~S[/mention]

We need your help.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:14 pm Players I think are pretty freaking town: Tony, Dom, Juliets
Players I think are quite town but I have tinfoil: Michelle, Jay, Epi, Ted, Sloonei
Players I barely have any thoughts about at all: Tranq, Colin, Speed, Gman
Players I suspect but have whatever the opposite of tinfoil is on: TH

See this read list?

This is a problem. This is what a readlist that is going to lose the game because you've got a POE of 10 players that could be any alignment looks like.

Players I think are pretty freaking town: Tony, Dom, Juliets
Players I think are quite town but I have tinfoil: Michelle, Jay, Epi, Ted, Sloonei
Players I barely have any thoughts about at all: Tranq, Colin, Speed, Gman
Players I suspect but have whatever the opposite of tinfoil is on: TH

I have a tinfoil hat for like half my townreads.

[mention]JaggedJimmyJay[/mention]

My top 3 are TH, Colin, Speedchuck

Michelle wrote: ↑Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:45 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:50 pm @JaggedJimmyJay @Epignosis @Michelle @Sloonei @speedchuck @Tranq @Dom @TonyStarkPrime @juliets @ColinIsCool

Does anyone townread TH? He seems to be the most consensus suspect and I would rather agree to focus elsewhere and lynch him via secret ballot if there's no way he's escaping lynch anyway.

So speak now so we can organize this.

how and when do we secret vote? And I agree with secret vote on TH

Presumably, via pm to LC and Black Rock done any time during the day.

Let's lynch Jay and TH since one is bad.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:08 am But to pause the mafia game for a moment, I do hope that we all remain healthy and in high spirits over the next couple of weeks. Even if you’re not in the high-risk portion of the population, this is not a very pleasant moment in time. Y’all are the best.

Oh no, I have to stay home where I can only clean, play mafia and play video games and I can't visit my aging mother in law oh no.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:30 pm Ah I see dissent in the ranks about the Nanook role.

@Long Con

If there were people A B C D and A is Harriet and protects B and C and D is vanilla scum and kills B and then A and D vote for C and C votes for A who gets lynched?

A isn't allowed to vote because they're dead.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:06 pm I just don’t know what you mean by “secret lynch”, Jackofhearts2005. Like, what exactly does that scenario look like? We’re talking openly about it right now. This is a terrible secret.

Long Con said there are two lynches today. I just quoted it for you.

Long Con wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:01 pm It is now Day 6. Due to the night poll result, there will be two lynches today: one regular, and one by secret vote![/color][/b]

[mention]Sloonei[/mention]

A secret lynch is unlikely to result in a mafia lynch unless we decide who is to be lynched ahead of time.

I'm proposing that TH is the most suspected player and the safest "secret" lynch and we just all agree to vote him in the secret lynch and then move on to other suspects.

What I don't want to happen is for us to publicly lynch TH today and then every townie goes "Who do I suspect most? Uh...Epi/Speed/Tranq/Jay/whoever" and then the mafia all piles on say...me and I get lynched by 3 votes while the town spreads their votes out.

[mention]JaggedJimmyJay[/mention] [mention]Epignosis[/mention] [mention]Michelle[/mention] [mention]Sloonei[/mention] [mention]speedchuck[/mention] [mention]Tranq[/mention] [mention]Dom[/mention] [mention]TonyStarkPrime[/mention] [mention]juliets[/mention] [mention]ColinIsCool[/mention]

Does anyone townread TH? He seems to be the most consensus suspect and I would rather agree to focus elsewhere and lynch him via secret ballot if there's no way he's escaping lynch anyway.

So speak now so we can organize this.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:47 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:46 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:35 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:30 pm Oh wait yeah the AM killed last night. He’s only at +1 vote, possibly tied with someone else due to award presenter and very likely behind Agatha.

I say we have two public votes and all privately vote for the most consensus target to override mafia secret vote.

huh?

Antimonitor has -2 votes against him by default. Antimonitor killed last night, giving him +3 votes due to Nanook2's death. This is a net +1 vote.

Award presenter can give +1 or -1 votes against a player.

Agatha gains votes for using actions and can remove them by taking no action.

So the Antimonitor has 1 vote to start, Agatha probably has at least 1 vote to start and another player may have 1 vote to start as well.

So basically, the bodyguard could have given us a free lynch but it didn't. Might help the case of a tie though.

What are you proposing Jack?

A normal day with two lynches and the most consensus suspect being voted for by all townies. Possibly that suspect is TH.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:35 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:30 pm Oh wait yeah the AM killed last night. He’s only at +1 vote, possibly tied with someone else due to award presenter and very likely behind Agatha.

I say we have two public votes and all privately vote for the most consensus target to override mafia secret vote.

huh?

Antimonitor has -2 votes against him by default. Antimonitor killed last night, giving him +3 votes due to Nanook2's death. This is a net +1 vote.

Award presenter can give +1 or -1 votes against a player.

Agatha gains votes for using actions and can remove them by taking no action.

So the Antimonitor has 1 vote to start, Agatha probably has at least 1 vote to start and another player may have 1 vote to start as well.

So basically, the bodyguard could have given us a free lynch but it didn't. Might help the case of a tie though.

Oh wait yeah the AM killed last night. He’s only at +1 vote, possibly tied with someone else due to award presenter and very likely behind Agatha.

I say we have two public votes and all privately vote for the most consensus target to override mafia secret vote.

That might also be super risky if the killer is deep.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:12 pm

Harriet - Each night, you will choose two players to bodyguard. If one of the players you guard is targeted with a nightkill, the kill will be redirected to you, and the targeter will receive an extra three votes in the next lynch. If one of the players you guard is targeted negatively, but non-lethally, the targeter will receive an extra two votes in the next lynch.

Awards presenter and Agatha (and Antimonitor but not in this case) can also modify the votes.

There's a fair chance that the no votes will lynch the mafia killer. Or Agatha.

Might be a good idea to spread votes equally among suspicious players?

That is kinda the most mild buddying possible.