The Syndicate

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Apr 29, 2020 2:10 am I’m actually kinda surprised you are tbh, didn’t we win a scum game together by all sussing each other? The wire maybe? It’s pretty much the same logic.

It’s not from a general rule standpoint. It’s also from a mindset standpoint. MP was in good spirits and also not really hammering Tony or Juliets or Wilgy in particular.

It feels in particular like the mindset of a wolf who knew we were headed for a town lynch and that either his partner was safe or he was thinking he’d be able to manipulate the POE on later days to make sure wolves were out of it. I think he pulls out some stuff to try to make himself look antialigned with Tony or Juliets if they’re his teammate or he works harder to expand the poe or shift them out of it.

Just being like “I’m fine with this” as we lynch his partner Tony or his partner Juliets is likely to go tomorrow does not seem like a winning strategy. We know MP is capable of Herculean effort. All he did was try to add DDL to the POE (citation needed).

Like I also don’t think wolf Juliets goes with the “but why am I scum” defense while letting me control our vote and privately expressing concern that Tony is town if she’s teamed with MP. That’s not opening the POE. That’s not taking her or her partner out of it. That’s shrinking it.

juliets wrote: ↑Wed Apr 29, 2020 7:50 am Hmmm good eye Nanook. That drop-off of Tony is significant. I can't remember personally if MP normally shades his partners - It's been years since he played here. I'll give that high weighting when I reconsider Tony today.

I completely get how your top townread can become a scum read over a few days. Was there anything you can point to that's caused him to drop or is it gut?

It’s more like my top suspects yesterday (you, Tony, Wilgy, MP) either died or look a lot more townie.

I think I most suspect Speed at this point?

Which is weird cause I’d have called him my top townread a few days ago.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2020 11:58 pm MP's last D2 rainbow:

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 12:27 am Fixed:

MP7 random D2 feels reads whatever man

lock town
nutella
Nanook

strong town
Jack
Tony

maybe town
Hyena
LC
speed

POE by default
DDL
juliets
DrWilgy
Sloonei

Contrasted to his post-reincarnation D3 rainbow (sidenote: fuck, is it really just D4? This game has been action packed, man):

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sun Apr 26, 2020 10:06 pm Gut-based MP7 2.0 D3 reads

Strong town:
Jack
Nanook

Moderate town:
Hyena

Slight town:
speed
DDL

POE:
DrWilgy
juliets
Tony

Jack and me have been consolidated to the same tier. DDL takes a step up from POE to slight town. Chuck stays in the same place, so do Wilgy and Jules and Hyena. The most interesting part, at least imo, is the precipitous drop of Tony from strong town to POE.

Now, maybe someone that knows MP's scum game will jump in and say "MP always shades his partners" or some shit like that ruin my evening, but to me that looks like MP going "shit, I'm scum now and I don't have enough suspects, who can I put....Tony, he's got suspicion on him, nobody will second guess me suspecting him too."

So yeah, pretty uninterested in Tony rn. If it comes to f3 (please lord no), obviously I would reconsider, but, I mean....this looks pretty convincing to me tbh, enough so that it's pretty well reaffirmed my decision not to seriously consider Tony today.

I absolutely agree with this. MP’s reactions to Tony are telling, I think.

He was perfectly happy with Tony being lynched yesterday and this confirms that.

I can’t decide if Hyena’s continued insistence for being lynched is townie it a wifom scum play like “see? I want to be lynched. Therefore I’m town.”

We have three lynches. I’m not getting lynched. I’m not sure Tony is ever getting lynched. If he’s not, mislynching Hyena isn’t better than mislynching anyone else because it doesn’t confirm anyone who would be up for mislynch.

The question is if Hyena believes that. If he does, he knows we’re not lynching him and this is a bluff. If he really thinks Tony is a likely lynch (regardless of his Tony read), the angle is town indicative.

Probably better to stop drinking wine and just read old posts.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 8:45 pm So fyi sig is a magnet for D1 lynches and I'm basically policy-not lynching him. Even if I am critical of the one post he's made, it was very sigly.

That doesn't mean he's town. But I'd personally rather ravish a radish

This post could be important.

Hyena wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 8:47 pm

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 8:46 pm

Hyena wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 8:44 pm Actually, Nanook, would you go for MR for self-preservation purposes?

Obviously I’ll go anyone for self prez if it comes to it lol

Okay, cool. I'll settle for MR then.
[VOTE: Master Radish] aubergine

DDL, welcome to my towncore. You're taking MR's spot.

Here’s where Hyena turns on Radishes. And I do mean turns. All mentions of Radishes (I didn’t search for “MR” fyi) prior to this are positive.

Need to see what the vote count is at this point and what was happening around this time. Why did Hyena suddenly suggest preserving onto MR?

speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2020 5:00 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2020 4:57 pm @speedchuck let’s say you magically got to decide the lynch order but you had to do it right now.

Go.

Juliets, Nanook, Tony.

Sell me on scum Juliets.

[mention]speedchuck[/mention] let’s say you magically got to decide the lynch order but you had to do it right now.

Go.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Apr 26, 2020 11:27 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sun Apr 26, 2020 9:50 pm Updated chart for Wilgy and Tony's GTH reads:

Juliets, Wilgy and Tony are all town. I’m 98% sure of it.

Hmmm okay nm. Nanook never did the gth.

Let’s play GTH again.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2020 4:39 pm

juliets wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2020 4:19 pm In my tinfoil brain I told Jack I wondered if he and MR had cooked up MR claiming his ability to town clear them both. I just don't see why MR claimed his ability otherwise. Had he not been vigged we would have thought that the mafia would kill him at night because of his power so when he didn't die night after night wouldn't we have suspected him? It's possible I just missed some important cog in the wheel that made the whole thing make sense. Like I said, it's tinfoil.

I hate to encourage this kinda thing but there are two worlds here.

Juliets the townie is legit surprised at my continued existence, especially with Inception in mind.

Juliets the wolf who is near universally suspected is trying to plant seeds of doubt on Jack who happens to be a universal townread, near mechanically confirmed and unlynchable on days of the week that end with a y. I can’t see scum Juliets thinking she pulls that off very often. If she’s bad, she needs three mislynches. Maybe she doesn’t shoot me if she thinks I’m pocketed and tries to mislynch me in lylo. I just don’t feel like she thinks antagonizing one of her strongest supporters to make him look a little worse is a good idea when there are easier mislynches and when leaving me alive again twice will do a lot more to make me look bad without letting any blame fall on her.

Is that silly? I feel like this is a town Juliets.

EBWOP

juliets wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2020 4:19 pm In my tinfoil brain I told Jack I wondered if he and MR had cooked up MR claiming his ability to town clear them both. I just don't see why MR claimed his ability otherwise. Had he not been vigged we would have thought that the mafia would kill him at night because of his power so when he didn't die night after night wouldn't we have suspected him? It's possible I just missed some important cog in the wheel that made the whole thing make sense. Like I said, it's tinfoil.

I hate to encourage this kinda thing but there are two worlds here.

Juliets the townie is legit surprised at my continued existence, especially with Inception in mind.

Juliets the wolf who is near universally suspected is trying to plant seeds of doubt on Jack who happens to be a universal townread, near mechanically confirmed and unlynchable on days of the week that end with a y. I can’t see scum Juliets thinking she pulls that off very often. If she’s bad, she needs three mislynches. Maybe she doesn’t shoot me if she thinks I’m pocketed and tries to mislynch me in lylo. I just don’t feel like she think antagonizing one of her strongest supporters to make him look a little worse when leaving me alive again twice will do a lot more without letting any blame call on her.

Is that silly? I feel like this is a town Juliets.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2020 4:02 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Apr 26, 2020 10:58 pm It’d be hilarious if I voted Juliets but I kinda think it’s Nanook and MP.

Or Juliets and Nanook or MP.

Jack Speak to this 'Nanook and MP' thing. I've not seen any indication in your posts as to why nanook would be here.

Ignore that nanook participated in the MP lynch for a moment. What did you mean here?

Idk. There’s been some gut feelings all around that Nanook could be bad. Nanook was outside of MP’s POE. Iirc, Nanook had MP gth town. Nanook has been defending Juliets and going after you. He’s also very eager to get cred for MP’s lynch. He called attention to his earlier suggestion to lynch absent players and said something like “in before Jack says I didn’t cause MP to be lynched.”

That all said, he’s felt really town today. DDL really trusts him and I really trust DDL.

Hyena wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:56 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:54 pm

Hyena wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:50 pm

juliets wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:46 pm Hi Hyena! I'm interested in what you are thinking today.

I'm frustrated. People agree that we're in a confusing game state and that everybody looks town. I have a way to mechanically hard clear not one, but TWO people right now (Jack and Tony), yet no one wants to go that route. If no one wants to go that route, then why aren't you guys just clearing them as lock town then?

One of them is basically lock town, and that's Jack. If we want to confirm tony, we'll just lynch him. Same cost, but we won't waste a day lynching you that way.

I don't think anyone seriously suspects Jack. If we should, I'm all ears.

Why didn't Jack die last night? If he survives another night, are we going to continue to let him live?

Dunno.

And yuuuuuup.

Hyena wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:54 pm And then I'm worried that maybe I've been wrong all along and that we actually have two more mafia in play, in which case, we only have one more mislynch before LYLO.

We’re not in a two scum world or else scum could basically negate all the votes yesterday.

Hyena wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:50 pm

juliets wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:46 pm Hi @Hyena! I'm interested in what you are thinking today.

I'm frustrated. People agree that we're in a confusing game state and that everybody looks town. I have a way to mechanically hard clear not one, but TWO people right now (Jack and Tony), yet no one wants to go that route. If no one wants to go that route, then why aren't you guys just clearing them as lock town then?

Lol what if I am?

A question for everyone: Given Poisonchan was entirely absent D1, how does that change your perception of Radishes' pushes on Tony all game?

I tend to think they make Tony look better.

juliets wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:48 am

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2020 7:20 am At the very least, we're at the point where it's reasonable to have full claims from Juliets and Speed.

If most people want me to claim I will. Since Jack knows, I want his opinion. His opinion yesterday was it won't matter because I can't prove it and he may think the same today. I just want to make sure he doesn't think it's a bad idea today after thinking about it.

It's fine if you want to full claim. It's similar enough to Hyena's claim in terms of being incredibly situational to the point where it's impossible to prove.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2020 2:34 am Most suspicious...hah

More like least townie tbh

There are corner cases where I townie should try to be lynched. This isn't one of them imo. Maybe if he could essentially cop Juliets or Speed.

Locktown: DDL (Wilgy was here btw)
Probably just lose if they're scum: Tony, Nanook
Geez, I don't think these players are scum: Hyena, Speed
Boy howdy, I have more reasons to think she's town than not: Juliets

So literally nobody who isn't green. I'm just gonna finish my MP iso and then idk iso the bottom three looking for something awful sounding I missed live.

Linki: No. We're lynching the most suspicious player. We're not giving up a lynch to remechanically confirm me.

Like if he wants to make an issue of it, let him.

Hyena wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2020 1:00 am Jack, is there a reason you didn't do a report thingy at the start of day this time?

I submitted one.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Apr 27, 2020 11:45 pm Could be a "hey look the more active confirmeds aren't getting killed maybe look at them" kill.

Could be PR hunting, but they weren't paying much attention if so since wilgy soft revealed.

Idk, I'm not worried about it rn tbh.

Yeah, it’s just a big bottle of wifom.

I guess I’ve supported both Speedchuck and Juliets more than most hee ho.

Well, I keep expecting to be dead and waking up alive.

I'm not sure how much weight to put into claims.

Like I'm a generic MSNBC reporter so a generic virus denier could be a thing.

More to the point, just about everyone has flipped as a character or a program or whatever while both wolves flipped as "groups of people doing stupid things."

Like...I don't expect the last wolf to claim group of people doing stupid things and just because Wilgy claimed singular person doing a stupid thing doesn't make him a wolf.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Mon Apr 27, 2020 12:19 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Apr 27, 2020 10:53 am

juliets wrote: ↑Mon Apr 27, 2020 10:49 am @speedchuck I don't think I understand your post but I'm having trouble articulating why. I'll keep trying.

TL;DR

Jack wants to clear the entire old POE (Tony, Juliets, Wilgy) because MP was comfortable with it as is.
I counter that MP didn't have the time or opportunity to change that POE in the first place, but possibly indicated that he wanted to.

linki: Jack answered too.

And I'd like to add that just because MP agreed with a POE doesn't mean it doesn't include his teammates.

POEs change. And if I am mafia I ideally want to be my teammates' second favorite option, forever.

At the very least, I think it clears Tony.

He's essentially saying "Maybe MP was biding his time and going to try to bus a teammate and open up the POE to include DDL and Speed rather than trying to prevent his teammate to be lynched. Therefore, Tony/Juliets/Wilgy aren't necessarily clear."

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Apr 27, 2020 10:03 am Maybe no one left is scum.

Reminder: This happened once.

And me and Darkstone snap lynched third townie Link anyway.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Apr 27, 2020 9:49 am Careful, last time I said this Sloonei lynched me.

Imagine getting lynched.

"Gottem"

I feel like I'm more likely to find places where Speedchuck is obviously town than places where Hyena is obviously town and I know Speed way better but everytime I say to myself "Maybe it's Hyena" I just have this internal pushback like "but he feels really town" and I know part of that is just personality and avatar.

I guess it all depends on MP's scumgame but it didn't because we lynched him.

I think it's Hyena because I don't want it to be Speedchuck and I think it's Speedchuck because I don't want it to be Hyena.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Mon Apr 27, 2020 9:22 am I didn't feel like MP was a lock lynch. Like, at all.

I mean, eventually. I think he was probably tied with Speedchuck or a little ahead of him as 4th most suspected player.

I agree he was nothing close to the lock lynch yesterday.

Nanook has also been pretty bullish on Juliets and bearish on Movingoonchan for most of the game, which is a really good look.

Basically anybody previously having strong opinions about not lynching Tony, Juliets or Wilgy gets points from me.

My strongest reason for townreading Juliets is MP being perfectly comfortable leaving her in the POE.

My second strongest reason for townreading Juliets is her being worried Tony was town in chat. Then I said something along the lines of "Lol don't say it here, say it in thread" and implied maybe she was scum with Tony for saying that and should get it on record. She was afraid to post it in thread after I implied that because she thought if she was wrong, it would make her look really bad.

I don't think MP's partner who is in the POE with MP wants to take Tony out of it. I don't think someone who knows Tony is town is afraid to say so in thread. I think Juliets genuinely had misgivings about the entire game scumreading Tony and genuine concern that saying so in thread would increase the chance she was mislynched.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Mon Apr 27, 2020 7:57 am Nanook is lock town.

I left in the last hour and ended up being caught up on some critical family stuff. Then later I realized I was going to miss EoD, entered discord and asked nanook what to do.

"We don't want to lynch Wilgy. Do you want to lynch MP?" - he said.

I decided to follow him.

Scum nanook had the perfect chance to save a teammate here and he passed.

I am going to push back against your reasoning without pushing back against your conclusion.

MP was always going to be in the POE unless he pulled himself out of it. He was very bussable. He was also very bussable D2 when it didn't look like there was a likely Sloonei replacement.

That said, I don't think it's Nanook. His process feels more town that scum.

That said, when I want to follow that with a statement like "I think it's Hyena" or "I think it's Speedchuck" I don't actually believe it.

I have no idea who the scum is. I'm not lockclearing Nanook. He's not the first player I'd lynch tomorrow, either.

I dig that claim, real or fake. I kinda buy it.

You guys I seriously fucking love when everyone seems town. That’s when the paranoia sets in.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Apr 27, 2020 12:34 am But I also seriously don’t think Wilgy comes in and makes a fuss at the end of Day 3, especially defending me, if he seriously thinks it can end poorly, which it had a good chance of doing. He’s almost guaranteed town. Like everyone else.

Yeah, plus the derp, plus MP encouraging Wilgy in the poe.

I’m declaring the two of you lock clear and DDL lock clear.

Then probably Juliets, then Speed, then idk cause Nanook and Hyena also look really town.

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Apr 25, 2020 6:30 pm

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:29 am The two things bothering nutella the most:

The fact we killed a mafioso.

And the fact we have a confirmed civ.

This reads... somewhat manipulative to me. Can you talk about this, DDL? I didn't get this interpretation, but then again I also realize I have different eyes right now.

Nother good look for DDL.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Apr 27, 2020 12:23 am Final note: Wilgy claimed “generic virus naysayer”. Take a look at the flips so far. Obviously we have no tell if there actually is a scum there, but I don’t like the claim.

Yeah me neither but still. I said Wilgy/MP basically couldn't be a scumteam cause then it meant Wilgy, alone, came into the thread and starting laying down major heat on his teammate that he shouldn't know had been daykilled a few hours earlier.

Plus like other reasons that escape me atm because it's late.

Hyena wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:45 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:43 pm Consider if Sloonei is the type of player to watch teammate Radish get blasted and teammate Nutella or MP get hanged up on and then replace out after a few posts.

I don’t think he is. A Nutella/Sloonei lynch is similar to a Nutella/Juliets lynch. It’s unlikely to catch two wolves. More likely to catch one even if we’re wrong on our main suspect.

I do think Sloonei is more likely a wolf than Juliets if Nutella is town so there’s that.

Hmm. I'll have to make a note of this.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:49 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:43 pm Consider if Sloonei is the type of player to watch teammate Radish get blasted and teammate Nutella or MP get hanged up on and then replace out after a few posts.

I don’t think he is. A Nutella/Sloonei lynch is similar to a Nutella/Juliets lynch. It’s unlikely to catch two wolves. More likely to catch one even if we’re wrong on our main suspect.

I do think Sloonei is more likely a wolf than Juliets if Nutella is town so there’s that.

I think sloonei replacing out is pretty NAI. I pretty strongly suspect that they’d play if they had the time as either alignment tbh.

Hyena wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:54 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:52 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:43 pm
I do think Sloonei is more likely a wolf than Juliets if Nutella is town so there’s that.

How so??


Generally I am thinking it's less and less likely that Sloonei is scum here. Especially from his latest post. I don't think he would just resign like that as scum after MR's death, unless his teammate is really deep.

This is another reason why I'm hesitant to go for Sloonei. I feel like I got a peek into their soul in that post and saw towniness.

Man, whoever the last wolf is is playing a really good game. Like I keep saying "Maybe it's Nanook" but there are solid reasons to think Nanook is town.

Everyone looks really town.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Apr 27, 2020 12:19 am

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 27, 2020 12:18 am

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Apr 27, 2020 12:14 am

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Apr 26, 2020 11:51 pm @TonyStarkPrime @DrWilgy Can ya'll confirm where your votes were before the switch to MP at the end?

Uh, I think mine was on MP and Wilgy on not there. I’m guessing Epi didn’t count it. It was 2v1 in that casw

Right. You were both on ???Nanook??? and then you switched to MP and Wilgy stayed on Nanook?

Linki: Yeah, I want to explore that possibility. I think Wilgy's reaction to the lynch was townie. I just want to know everything I can about the movement and explanations for it at the end.

I don’t know, I think I was on Jules until I switched to MP. I wasn’t really around in the last half an hour, so I only switched my vote and moved on.

That's right, I think ya'll were on Juliets. So Wilgy switched to Nanook, which didn't really do anything mechanically that staying not on MP wouldn't have done. Idk.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Apr 27, 2020 12:14 am

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Apr 26, 2020 11:51 pm @TonyStarkPrime @DrWilgy Can ya'll confirm where your votes were before the switch to MP at the end?

Uh, I think mine was on MP and Wilgy on not there. I’m guessing Epi didn’t count it. It was 2v1 in that casw

Right. You were both on ???Nanook??? and then you switched to MP and Wilgy stayed on Nanook?

Linki: Yeah, I want to explore that possibility. I think Wilgy's reaction to the lynch was townie. I just want to know everything I can about the movement and explanations for it at the end.

I finally caught [mention]Sloonei[/mention].

You're screwed going forward because I figured out you have the same tell as Glor. :haha

Expect "Sloonei is nothing like his last scum game" jokes in your near future.