The Syndicate

Why the hell not [VOTE: Alexy] aubergine

Could also help resolve tedxtr

tedxtr wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:59 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:59 pm If Alexy flips wolf, we'll essentially have three confirmed town, which would be nice.
huh? who would those be?

The other people in that thread, of course assuming three wolves per thread. I guess an ITP could be in the mix, but eh.

If Alexy flips wolf, we'll essentially have three confirmed town, which would be nice.

The other thread seems more certain on Alexy, which may justify us going there, even if we have a better statistical chance of hitting a wolf in my side

potentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:53 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:52 pm Me, Ranmilia, and RDB all voted TSP last minute
How unanimous was the TSP vote?

Us, plus flipped town Windward and Gira and flipped ??? Bereft

tedxtr wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:48 pm
potentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:45 pm
tedxtr wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:42 pm if it's 5-4 today, in your thread, who would alexey be paired with?
No one really pairs nicely in the remaining bunch tbh but I guess I have more reasons for keeping Cape town than Wilgy? That would be wild though, I really am more on the side of thinking there's some sort of shenanigans rather than the numbers being that drastic.
red is exactly how i am feeling too in our thread

I can kind of see that, since I'm looking for "least unlikely" at this point rather than "most likely"

Me, Ranmilia, and RDB all voted TSP last minute

potentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:49 pm Okay question for the nighties: what's the most parsimonious explanation? Like, assuming no bussing of TSP, who's wolfiest? I think I gathered TSP got voted by RDB and Abi (?) and was trying to get a wagon on RDB, maybe?

If there was no TSP bussing, it has to be exactly Abby/tedxtr

Cape90 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:50 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 2:58 am Strongest argument against each wolfteam:

RDB/Abby: Abby's switch to RDB late in D4 seriously threatened to bring down RDB and she's been coming in hard against them today.
RDB/Ranmilia: Both would have had to switch to TSP last minute when DizzyMade could have gone down instead.
RDB/tedxtr: tedxtr voted RDB over Made, which nearly resulted in RDB going down; the two other EoD RDB voters are flipped town.
Abby/Ranmilia: Abby hinted at greenchecking Ranmilia but not actually hardclaiming as such
Abby/tedxtr: Lots of fighting especially early in the phase
Ranmilia/tedxtr: Uhh come to think of it, I can't think of anything off the top of my head.

leetic wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 3:00 am Ranmilia/ted isn't something I considered but it does make a decent amount of sense
If you can't think of anything from the top of your head about the team, how exactly does it make sense?

I can't think for a reason why it's unlikely off the top of my head

Alexy wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:44 pm Pyxxy wonders why leetic needs to defend themselves with saying they have the more believable claim. He also believes Ran is right re: a wolf in Ted or leetic. Bereft death could also point to leetic as a role cop because leetic visited bereft on night 1. Along with this, leetic's claim at the start of day 2 made sure everyone would see it.

Believe me, if I was a wolf and knew Bereft was ITP I would've tunneled them hard rather than wasting a shot on them. Interesting theory, but it's not true. Also, I had to comment because other people kept bringing it up.

potentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:46 pm Has RDB claimed anything?

No. @RondoDimBuckle you really should if you have anything though.

tedxtr wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:42 pm if it's 5-4 today, in your thread, who would alexey be paired with?

It's not 5-4, that would be guaranteed LyLo as opposed to merely a possibility

potentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:33 pm Whoever asked earlier, I can confirm the wording on the flipped mafia is the same as it was for TSP

So multiball is unlikely. Still doesn't answer what the potentially game-ending threat is.

tedxtr wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:31 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:29 pm
tedxtr wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:28 pm the way i see it, we can lunch from our thread, or the other thread

in that sense, alexey / rdb seem to be the options

i'll once again leave my vote on rdb cuz i can't make EoD. if the other thread feels confident in alexey, then vote them out i guess
Do you think RDB/Ranmilia is a viable pairing?
i've just had a flash of thought that it's more likely abby / rdb, if rdb is a wolf

but i dunno, i still am considering we just have 1 wolf alive in our thread, lol

If they aren't, it means RDB/Abby is the only viable RDB pairing. The main thing to consider there is why RDB and Ranmilia would both switch to TSP last-minute, it would have essentially been a wolf rush but with another wolf as the target.

potentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:29 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 5:57 pm So, if RDB is paired with tedxtr, ted nearly let RDB die and they killed another RDB voter, bringing attention to RDB's position at the board.

If RDB is paired with Ranmilia, then they both hounded the TSP wagon last minute for no apparent reason. They probably wouldn't have predicted me to make the switch as well, and bringing Dizzy down would have been better for them (although maybe they wanted TSP to make the switch, though he showed up like an hour before EoD and did nothing)

That leaves the only RDB pairing that remotely makes sense as RDB/Abby. Even then, Abby nearly killed RDB by switching to them near EoD4, but then again Abby may have seen the RDB lynch as inevitable and only switched when it became clear it wasn't.
I'm confused why then you aren't voting RDB if they're the common denominator?

Have you even read my post?

tedxtr wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:28 pm the way i see it, we can lunch from our thread, or the other thread

in that sense, alexey / rdb seem to be the options

i'll once again leave my vote on rdb cuz i can't make EoD. if the other thread feels confident in alexey, then vote them out i guess

Do you think RDB/Ranmilia is a viable pairing?

Although I kind of think it would've been better to have an extension, as the threads merging is quite a bit to get used to

tedxtr wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:25 pm isn't eod in 2h35?

Yeah, we should probably get organized like right now

Ranmilia wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:18 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:06 pm
Ranmilia wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:06 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 6:56 pm Like what world are you even pursuing if Abby is town Ranmilia? Something like tedxtr/RDB?
I'm not thinking in any of those terms. I'm looking for who is the most behaviorally likely individual to be a wolf that we should vote out today. I feel like we're approaching the game with very different fundamental assumptions. Or you're a wolf, but Jack keeps telling me this is how you play as town.
Do you or do you not think our thread started with three wolves?
I do not know and I make no assumptions about it at this point. I think two is possible, I think Bereft wolf is possible, I think one or more lone wolves who don't know the main team are possible. I think unclaimed town PRs are possible. I think imbalanced sides are possible. I think mirrored roles are possible - I know I just said one in ted/alexy but that's not based solely on them having similar claims and I'm not 1000% married to it, just seems very likely when I consider all the factors including behavior and reads.

If Bereft's a wolf, why did they die? Why would a town PR not claim in what is basically MiLo? Why would mirrored roles be possible when there's only "evidence" of one? All of this seems more like an excuse to not have to think about the game as a whole.

Ranmilia wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:06 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 6:56 pm Like what world are you even pursuing if Abby is town Ranmilia? Something like tedxtr/RDB?
I'm not thinking in any of those terms. I'm looking for who is the most behaviorally likely individual to be a wolf that we should vote out today. I feel like we're approaching the game with very different fundamental assumptions. Or you're a wolf, but Jack keeps telling me this is how you play as town.

Do you or do you not think our thread started with three wolves?

leetic wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 6:57 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 6:56 pm Like what world are you even pursuing if Abby is town Ranmilia? Something like tedxtr/RDB?
Because if I take Ranmilia's statements at face value, this is what I'm left with. Bit why would they kill Gira when that would be the kill that puts the most attention on the pairing's place on the D4 VC?

Maybe if they wanted to lead into a bus, but they don't seem to be doing that?

I feel like there has to be at least one in Abby/Ranmilia for that alone

leetic wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 6:56 pm Like what world are you even pursuing if Abby is town Ranmilia? Something like tedxtr/RDB?

Because if I take Ranmilia's statements at face value, this is what I'm left with. Bit why would they kill Gira when that would be the kill that puts the most attention on the pairing's place on the D4 VC?

Like what world are you even pursuing if Abby is town Ranmilia? Something like tedxtr/RDB?

Although I am not a fan of how @RondoDimBuckle dipped

Ranmilia wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 6:52 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 6:32 pm
Ranmilia wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 6:19 pm
Alexy wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 5:53 pm @Ranmilia pyxxy is asking whether you think leetic could be a role cop with X amount of shots. He's saying that leetic may be stalling with IIOA to see what others do.
it's possible I guess? That's an oddly specific callout, if they're mafia they could be anything. even a boat. i guess it is slightly likely because of the "correct" track results, but the way they did their "reaction test" d3 left the door open and... let everyone else correct them if the callout was incorrect. which, admittedly is kinda sus.

not thrilled with leetic's posting today either. being hyperfocused on pairings and pushing stuff like "this person fits the most pairings so they are most likely wolf" is quite wolfy aaaaaand a vote on abi huh

that ain't it chief.

here's the deal. at least one of leetic and ted's claims are bogus. at least one of ted's and alexy's claims are bogus. ALL of these people are sketching me out. alexy, oddly enough, the least, i do believe the pyxxy contact is genuine from what they're saying.

abi is the one (active) player i'm confident here is not a wolf atp, and since i arrived at that conclusion this morning, suddenly feels like a ton of people popped out of the woodwork to say "no no abi is sus let's go abi here!" (by a ton i mean like three but context here. yknow.) (also i don't think psv and cape are likely wolves but they're Not Appearing In This Day so, mwaf)
Why isn't Abby a wolf? They have the least towny things going for them right now
Friend, did you read my posts from this morning where i went over this? Have you looked at TSP's iso? Abigail and TSP are not partnered, unless they pursued a masterpiece theatre plan in which TSP attempts to draw attention to her and hard bus her and somehow fails, while she approaches me in a way I have not seen a wolf dare to do in over a decade and then does nothing with it but appear uninformed.

She is unpaired with TSP, which is the most important pairing at all, and behaviourally town which is the most important factor. We're looking for wolves here, that is, people who are on a team with TSP and have knowledge of who is and is not mafia. You're repeating the "least things going for her" line like you're trying to speak it into existence as a truism- why? What exactly are you considering when you say that?

Me and RDB flat out voted for TSP. Plus, Abby openly admits that she's capable of such theatre.

If it's not Abby, it has to be Ranmilia/tedxtr, Ranmilia/RDB, or RDB/tedxtr. And the latter two pairings don't make sense at all.

tedxtr wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 6:38 pm they've kept saying it all game that my claim is looking bad, yet they act like it's good at the same time?

if it's not good, why not push me more? seriously, what reasons does she have to hold back?

i feel like she's poking at me with a ten foot pole, idk the dynamic of it is weird as all hell

What do you think of Ranmilia's claims that one of our claims has to be "bogus"?

It's almost like a w!Ranmilia would be running out of easy pushes here. Then again, not considering Abby limits them further, then again, Ranmilia/Abby is possible…

Still, more likely than the other RDB pairings in my mind.

tedxtr wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 6:34 pm tbh i had an epiphany that it could be abi / rondo

is there anything that hard disproves that?

Not "hard" per se, but you do have to consider the EoD4 shenanigans of Abby shifting back and forth between RDB and Made. I do have a post summarizing that.

And I'm not sure how you arrived at "at least one of leetic and ted's claims are bogus", they don't contradict at all and if anything they're more likely to both be true since Windward is the only other non-vanilla town on our side while there are many on the other side

Ranmilia wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 6:19 pm
Alexy wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 5:53 pm @Ranmilia pyxxy is asking whether you think leetic could be a role cop with X amount of shots. He's saying that leetic may be stalling with IIOA to see what others do.
it's possible I guess? That's an oddly specific callout, if they're mafia they could be anything. even a boat. i guess it is slightly likely because of the "correct" track results, but the way they did their "reaction test" d3 left the door open and... let everyone else correct them if the callout was incorrect. which, admittedly is kinda sus.

not thrilled with leetic's posting today either. being hyperfocused on pairings and pushing stuff like "this person fits the most pairings so they are most likely wolf" is quite wolfy aaaaaand a vote on abi huh

that ain't it chief.

here's the deal. at least one of leetic and ted's claims are bogus. at least one of ted's and alexy's claims are bogus. ALL of these people are sketching me out. alexy, oddly enough, the least, i do believe the pyxxy contact is genuine from what they're saying.

abi is the one (active) player i'm confident here is not a wolf atp, and since i arrived at that conclusion this morning, suddenly feels like a ton of people popped out of the woodwork to say "no no abi is sus let's go abi here!" (by a ton i mean like three but context here. yknow.) (also i don't think psv and cape are likely wolves but they're Not Appearing In This Day so, mwaf)

Why isn't Abby a wolf? They have the least towny things going for them right now

tedxtr wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 6:25 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 4:02 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 3:43 pm Someone tell me why Abigail/Leetic/Alexy isn't the team?
Because I'm not a wolf. Plus, I have the more believable PR claim
says who? lol

your role mirrors nobody's

The fact that your role "mirrors" somebody's makes it less believable, not more. Who else has such a role?

Might want to [VOTE: Abby] aubergine for now. They have the least reason to be townread, not having a TSP vote or a PR claim, and while any pairing with them would be weird I see no reason to discount any as impossible. I can still be swayed, though.

So, if RDB is paired with tedxtr, ted nearly let RDB die and they killed another RDB voter, bringing attention to RDB's position at the board.

If RDB is paired with Ranmilia, then they both hounded the TSP wagon last minute for no apparent reason. They probably wouldn't have predicted me to make the switch as well, and bringing Dizzy down would have been better for them (although maybe they wanted TSP to make the switch, though he showed up like an hour before EoD and did nothing)

That leaves the only RDB pairing that remotely makes sense as RDB/Abby. Even then, Abby nearly killed RDB by switching to them near EoD4, but then again Abby may have seen the RDB lynch as inevitable and only switched when it became clear it wasn't.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 4:28 pm So Rondo voting TSP effectively has no meaning?

Anyway, what do you think of Alexy vs. ted in terms of claims?

So Abby/ted is the only option if there was no TSP bus. They were fighting throughout most of the game, but maybe they're capable of this kind of theatre?

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 4:28 pm So Rondo voting TSP effectively has no meaning?

They did break the tie between Made and TSP in favor of the latter. Granted, a large part of the reason why Made was viable was because RDB was on it in the first place. So far though, all dead TSP voters have either flipped town or are Bereft.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 4:19 pm Care to detail to me the interactions between tsp and rondo?

TSP mostly ignored RDB D1 but was parked on their wagon D2. RDB switched their vote around a lot but landed on TSP with one minute to EoD.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 4:13 pm kk, swap you out for someone else and tell me why that trio makes sense.

The closest is probably Ranmilia/ted. Abby just doesn't fit cleanly with anyone else in the PoE.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 3:43 pm Someone tell me why Abigail/Leetic/Alexy isn't the team?

Because I'm not a wolf. Plus, I have the more believable PR claim

I'm now officially at the point where I'm going in circles around Abby/RDB/Ranmilia/ted. I'm starting to actually consider going along with the other thread and getting rid of Alexy.

And as a side note, I guess 3-2-1 is possible for town to win by collaborating with the lone wolf, but I'm not sure that's particularly fair since it leads to a prisoner's dilemma-type situation. Still, it's unlikely we're dealing with that.

leetic wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 3:17 am Although another thing I wonder is, are we operating under multiball here and each team had a chance to kill upon entering this thread? That would make the setup likely 6-2-1, which if we mislynch could turn into 3-2-1 at worst, which is impossible for town to win. If that were true, it would also make the optimal strategy for town snuffing out the lone wolf, otherwise we have to hope wolves crossfire. Still, doesn't seem very likely, even if it would explain the precarious situation we're in.

TSP was "a dedicated manager at Lumon Industries". If ilario and Brad were the same, it would seem to debunk this theory.

Although another thing I wonder is, are we operating under multiball here and each team had a chance to kill upon entering this thread? That would make the setup likely 6-2-1, which if we mislynch could turn into 3-2-1 at worst, which is impossible for town to win. If that were true, it would also make the optimal strategy for town snuffing out the lone wolf, otherwise we have to hope wolves crossfire. Still, doesn't seem very likely, even if it would explain the precarious situation we're in.

leetic wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 3:00 am Ranmilia/ted isn't something I considered but it does make a decent amount of sense

Still, would have the issues with number of PRs. Still, I do not recall Ranmilia ever significantly pushing ted at all.

Ranmilia/ted isn't something I considered but it does make a decent amount of sense

Strongest argument against each wolfteam:

RDB/Abby: Abby's switch to RDB late in D4 seriously threatened to bring down RDB and she's been coming in hard against them today.
RDB/Ranmilia: Both would have had to switch to TSP last minute when DizzyMade could have gone down instead.
RDB/tedxtr: tedxtr voted RDB over Made, which nearly resulted in RDB going down; the two other EoD RDB voters are flipped town.
Abby/Ranmilia: Abby hinted at greenchecking Ranmilia but not actually hardclaiming as such
Abby/tedxtr: Lots of fighting especially early in the phase
Ranmilia/tedxtr: Uhh come to think of it, I can't think of anything off the top of my head.

leetic wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 2:44 am So, ranking the teams from most to least likely as I see it at this point:

RDB/Ranmilia
Ranmilia/tedxtr
Abby/Ranmilia
RDB/Abby
Abby/tedxtr
RDB/tedxtr

Disregard, I think it was RDB/Ranmilia I thought was unlikely and not RDB/Abby, and I now remember why

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