The Syndicate

I just... should ... scumread the players here most capable of snowing me?

Neon, Rondo, Nanook?

I have too many townreads man like... the only slot that I actually don't have any reason to townread is like... none? Maybe trustfall is needed.

It not good for my mental health bruh. Constant stress.

Nahhhh fuck this game.

No matter which way I slice it this entire game has a wolfteam whose agenda has been treating me like a dumbass.

Fuck I hate this stupid game.

Lilypetal wrote: ↑Mon Nov 14, 2022 8:49 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Nov 14, 2022 8:48 pm I'm back to feeling like Lily is ride or die town again. But this time I also think I disagree on their Ilario read.
And I'm also townreading Neon.
And Millium.
And Dya.

oprahgivesouttownreads.jpg
i can't read dya cuz skill issue so mayhaps i'll just sheep u

that does mean aro's wagon was pure though which lol

Well Alison and I are town. If Dya is town too it 100% behooves the mafia to not vote Aro.

Belzy
Ender
Rondo

Fuck it let it ride. Let's just treat this as the solve. Kill and roleblock all of it.

I'm back to feeling like Lily is ride or die town again. But this time I also think I disagree on their Ilario read.
And I'm also townreading Neon.
And Millium.
And Dya.

oprahgivesouttownreads.jpg

Millium wrote: ↑Mon Nov 14, 2022 8:32 pm whats the meta on Rondo, when exactly does he pop off?
like there are two worlds here, maybe 3

1. He is just trolling town, because he doesn't feel like he has any game plan whatsoever, or teammates
2. He is wolf, that hasn't tried to do anything, which if not for meta, I would normally just lynch this (this slot simply can not go into lylo)
3. He is a lost wolf that doesn't know his teammates?

He is hard to solve but ...

He is in his town meta.

He is aware of how he is perceived enough to gambit getting townread for slanking but...

He hasn't felt scummy at all when he has bothered to solve either.

I think there is a >0 chance the mafia have access to a role that is fudging the alignments of the flips. Aro and Alison were damn near lolcatting I was literally bewildered by both flips to a degree I am not used to.

Bruhhh neon and lily and dya and ilario and millium are all town?

ilario wrote: ↑Mon Nov 14, 2022 8:23 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Nov 14, 2022 8:22 pm There should only be 1 KP tonight aside from mine (unless the 3p has KP). If you have 2 roleblocks we can probably mech lock this game with some good coordinated thought.
im all up for that but doesnt that also telegraph to wolves how to potentially work around it? but yeah im down for a plan if u have one

It requires a bit of faith in a towncore and working hard on making one that feels correct.

There is one thing I'm not exactly... happy with.

I think there is a strong chance Belzy really did target me. In their self defense them targeting me has been something they've belaboured to a degree where it feels like caught for bad reasons.

I believe they aren't lying about targeting me n1.

This doesn't mean I think they are town. However it does mean there is some mechanical thing that prevented Tilgarial's bus drive to fail that is yet to become very clear.

There should only be 1 KP tonight aside from mine (unless the 3p has KP). If you have 2 roleblocks we can probably mech lock this game with some good coordinated thought.

Do you have 2 roleblocks Ilario?

If Belzy is mafia Millium has 2 wolves voting them including Porscha who voted out of self pres. Level 1 he's just town.

dyachei wrote: ↑Mon Nov 14, 2022 8:13 pm
Neon wrote: ↑Mon Nov 14, 2022 8:10 pm And everyone on Aro has flipped town so far
i kind of think we're in a millium v world and mafia wanted him to go over more than aro. I expect only 1 wolf on aro's wagon

I agree that Millium seems v but I don't think mafia particularly wanted him to go over Aro as much as they just didn't care once we solved them needing to figure out how to deal with Porscha being wagoned.

I think there's a pretty strong possibility Ender is mafia who was hedging on Porscha and ended up on Cham simply so they wouldn't be in the voters anywhere readable.

I kinda think Rondo is town because on meta he should be more of an active chaos goblin here if he was mafia. This isn't the gamestate I'd expect a wolf Rondo to become a potato in.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 06, 2022 9:18 pm Day 1 votecount

Arogame (9): Lily, Seanzie, Alison, Dya, SPF, Santy, Neon, Mac, Tigarial
Millium (5): Cham, Porscha, Belzy, Arogame, Millium
Cham (2): Rondo, Ender
Alison (1): Nanook
Porscha (1): Ilario

Okay let's humour that Arogame was slaughtered by villagers.

Millium's wagon is mathematically likely to have mafia on it too. The fact that Porscha's wagon died and Millium's didn't makes Millium >rand town and we already have Porscha and probably Belzy as mafia voting on it. Cham and Aro are dead town and Millium is self voting. I don't see why Millium self votes if his teammates are bussing. I think this all heavily points to Millium being town.

The question is... well frankly there's probably always at least one mafia between Rondo and Ender due to this. It's important to check why and how they ended on Cham, and how they responded as Arogame emerged as a town led wagon. I feel like there would have been some Porscha bussers at some point too.

Lily being 1 shot slank vig does make the choice she made in terms of usage a little more reasonable. Its a bit like if Porscha steps up enough to get herself out of my range she's self resolving.

I tend to also think that ... well ... if Millium was town why didn't he die d1? Obviously in the end the mafia got the Arogame wagon over but surely there would have been scummier energy pushing the Millium wagon before Aro became viable while he was wagoned with Porscha. Dyachei had been sort of sussing Aro for ages and nobody cared but then all of a sudden voters from both wagons all flooded the Aro wagon once Alison and I permitted it.

Who is left alive from Arogame voters?

Millium wrote: ↑Mon Nov 14, 2022 8:05 pm IDK what Santy got
or what you got Mac

so there are unconfirmed uses of my roleblock, Random redirect, and doctor, unless u claimed what u had and used, and i forgot

I have claimed it several times. I got a doctor and used it on Lily last night.

ilario wrote: ↑Mon Nov 14, 2022 8:00 pm i find the uwu poster type of players the hardest to read so go figure i have 2 left as well as a wisp who i have still yet to figure out properly how to read

Fwiw I have generally read wisp quite well albeit in limited games. I had him as mafia and tunneled it from spec in the finale. I think his play in this game has been similar to there. He was suspected early on and used aggression to pull himself out of the POE in that game and never ended up back in it. The Porscha/Millium vote logic should be indicative enough ie. how did each of them treat the wagon on the other vs. the emergent Arogame wagon.

I still think his claim has holes too ie. I don't think his explanation for why he gave two items n1 and then only one on n2 passes the pub test.

Santy seemed like his main suspicion was dya/rondo/millium.

But I guess he was also a strong investigative.

They probs had rolecopped Seanzie the previous night.

I feel like the mafia have a rolecop and ONV. So they shouldn't have two KP tonight.

Forgive me if it's obvious but has Lily claimed her KP source as role oriented or did she get it from Millium?

Damn Seanzie was pretty sus on old Ilario. Gave him the you shouldn't be able to read me as town read.

Maybe we should just kill Ilario.

It is also important to check whether Seanzie softed his saves too. I feel like Seanzie had townreads that he usually wouldn't. He was particularly generous towards me which was out of character for him.

That is to say a real MAFIA loveriser.

I think some energy should be expended on finding Belzy games to ensure they don't have what they've done here in their townrange.

ilario wrote: ↑Mon Nov 14, 2022 7:44 pm so ig wolves could have tried to kill u n2 in that world then? sean saves u, lily claims hit

Not if Belzy is a real loveriser they didn't.

ilario wrote: ↑Mon Nov 14, 2022 7:44 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Nov 14, 2022 7:40 pm She also lied about being able to solve Porscha. What kind of town vigilante has a scumread so strong on someone that they intentionally cause them to not be chopped just so they can shoot them? Feels like bs.

If you consider what would have happened to Lily if things played out such that Porscha just went over you have your motive for why they shoot their wolf teammate.

Their towny entitlement is a point in their favour though. But then again I put the doc on them and there's still two kills so seems like the mafia didn't bother shooting a town who shot a mafia and whose vest they popped WITH two kp to use?
heyyy i said that earlier! maybe people didnt meld with me more cos most of my crazy posts were when everyone was in the thread and when it got quieter and i became more tame the other stuff came out. i feel like u been oscillating from finding me really towny and really scummy this game haha

Yes it's because you keep making reads that are blatantly predicated on either a misunderstanding or misrepresentation. You've done it countless times. You also have pushed me for very asinine reasons at multiple points.

I don't like it when I see TMI pings along with making content that heavily indicates not having read content in a way that's overly confident. It is something I always find suspicious when anyone does it.

But then you explain yourself well and are reasonable. And you also seem to be likely spewed not partners with Porscha.

I think Lily also has the highest 3p equity.

ilario wrote: ↑Mon Nov 14, 2022 7:42 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Nov 14, 2022 7:40 pm She also lied about being able to solve Porscha. What kind of town vigilante has a scumread so strong on someone that they intentionally cause them to not be chopped just so they can shoot them? Feels like bs.

If you consider what would have happened to Lily if things played out such that Porscha just went over you have your motive for why they shoot their wolf teammate.

Their towny entitlement is a point in their favour though. But then again I put the doc on them and there's still two kills so seems like the mafia didn't bother shooting a town who shot a mafia and whose vest they popped WITH two kp to use?
if lily is mafia then it might be with rondo? because for lily to be scum that means there was no wolf kp shown on d2 and the bp hit was a lie? which means i blocked the wolf kp?

Or Seanzie had a save.

ilario wrote: ↑Mon Nov 14, 2022 7:40 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Nov 14, 2022 6:48 pm @Millium @ilario @dyachei @EnderWiggin

I am presently humouring a Belzy/Neon/Lilypetal team. What says you?
i think we probably lose if thats the team lmao, but ill try and do my due diligence. can you go into any dya concerns you may have? i feel like i need atleast one person i can take as a ride or die until atleast lylo (provided i dont die) and im not sure who else it would be now that ur concerned on lily.

Going into concerns on dya is not something I've any interest in doing.

She also lied about being able to solve Porscha. What kind of town vigilante has a scumread so strong on someone that they intentionally cause them to not be chopped just so they can shoot them? Feels like bs.

If you consider what would have happened to Lily if things played out such that Porscha just went over you have your motive for why they shoot their wolf teammate.

Their towny entitlement is a point in their favour though. But then again I put the doc on them and there's still two kills so seems like the mafia didn't bother shooting a town who shot a mafia and whose vest they popped WITH two kp to use?

ilario wrote: ↑Mon Nov 14, 2022 7:35 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Nov 14, 2022 6:40 pm To understand my Ilario suspicion you have to recognise firstly that I have a very good track record of reading him. In the last game we were t/t I correctly townread Ilario and he suspected me for it and in post said I was one of the best players at reading him. The reason I can read Ilario is because we generally view the game similarly and find the same things suspicious. We end up coalescing.

Ilario is scummy because he's projected confidence on reads beyond a reasonable degree in ways that stood out because I was on the other side of them without information. Has managed to keep his hands too clean while the wolves have been cleaning up and has failed to coalesce with me on much when we usually mind meld a lot as town. In this game we have found ourselves diametrically opposed on reads on Alison, dyachei, Ender and others. I've largely been proven wrong when the flips come but that doesn't mean he's towny. The issue is that he shouldn't have townread Alison. If you look back through Alison's play the day she got chopped she was hard wolfsiding. Ilario townread Alison in ways that indicated he wasn't even aware of things she'd said. He was just aware she was town in spite of that. His approach to Alison reeks of TMI. And a great deal of his game has.
thats understandable, a large part of it is i dont really explain my reads when im busy or during early stages of the game. i was just reading back at posts from alison and found them towny, there really wasnt much else to it, i dont really factor wolfsiding into peoples alignments because villas can be wrong and often are. im not saying this to change your mind or anything, just that i agree that you go generally are one of the people i consider the strongest at reading me but yeah that doesnt mean we cant be wrong on each other and hopefully knowing all this will help you understand me in a future game if im giving you the same pings.

You should reread your own ISO from the start imo. I feel like it will help you.

ilario wrote: ↑Mon Nov 14, 2022 7:27 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Nov 14, 2022 5:55 pm
ilario wrote: ↑Mon Nov 14, 2022 5:45 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Nov 14, 2022 5:30 pm If Belzy is town and telling the truth.

They lied about having a green check on me for several phases.

They lied about me being loverised to them even though they nearly went over and could have easily been vigged or killed by mafia.

They chose to loverise dyachei (or me if there's some mech shenanigans) when their day 1 suspicion they themselves vocalised was millium and a town lover should target a mafia suspect not a top town.

I think you just ... accept that if a player who makes these decisions is town that it's okay to lose due to their decision making. No offence to Belzy if they are town, I think we've all been there where we've made incorrect decisions in mafia but ... this stuff is egregious at every level.

If Belzy is mafia I think Ender and Rondo are probably the last 2.

If somehow Belzy is town, which is the ... feeling I cannot shake that's opening up a myriad of tinfoil possibilities. Then we are probably just losing to Ilario, dya and whoever the fuck.
ender?? i mean i can see it and hope thats the case to validate my push, but what changed your mind?
Belzy being mafia would mean that I've been a pawn in the mafia game and immediately lends suspicion to those who've been more vocally aligned to me and makes the players who've been less of a Mac ally more likely to be town. It would indicate that the mafia gameplan has been to steer me since as early as n1. Ender would be the primary suspect. Lilypetal would be second.
oh nice, that was some of my issues with ender too. why lily? im happy to go through her again when i have time, but if shes mafia then damnnnn lol she pretty good

Go back to day 1. Lily was consensus suspected by a lot of people for having a tepid entry. Came back and posted her way out.

But aside from shoot Porscha what has Lily done other than shield me (someone likely loverised to a wolf) and stop us from chopping Porscha?

Where's the town solving mindset?

@Neon you called yourself stupid and dismissed me scumreading you for skilful wolf play in the last wolf game we played. You don't have that card to play anymore and the more you do it the worse you look.

But he has taken issue with practically everyone who dared look his way this game. Read how he and Ilario interacted in day 1.

@Millium why did you not take umbrage with Nanook recommending I shoot you?

Neon wrote: ↑Mon Nov 14, 2022 6:45 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Nov 14, 2022 6:34 pm
Neon wrote: ↑Mon Nov 14, 2022 6:31 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Nov 14, 2022 6:28 pm If you were to be like "Mac who do you think has just been wolfy in this game" Ilario would be my top scumread by some distance. Then Neon. Ender would be my top town.

But I have this gift/curse of being able to ignore my own intuitions and evaluate through level 1 scumreads which causes me to have unstable reads until I don't.

And right now I don't have enough benchmarking to feel confident on anything so I'm still in flywheel mode. Spinning spinning spinning.
Am I solely scummy because of my treatment of santy? Or is it because I suspect we are being hoodwinked here?

I don't think my wolf range is this wide I think I've clearly played in my town range... I'm just an idiot

Neon you have just had two monster wolf games in a row where you subverted ýour perceived wolfrange and dined out on people underestimating you so you really can't make this argument if you are town.

You're scummy because of the way you handled claims, some of your porscha interactions and generally being openwolfy and lying a lot.
But why would wolf me lie like that? If I'm wolf I just claim one shot delayed tracker who got no results with conditional double vote. I don't try to red check santy or to try to play to the possibility that Porscha used her ability on you...I don't need to I'm already town read in this scenario I don't need to pull a gambit to try to get info from my failure to use my mech properly. I can just push santy off Allison I don't need to do a dumb red check to see what happens because I don't believe his claim.

I lied. I'm much more likely to do that as town here. I hoodwinked people for 2 straight games on the back of being much more open and honest than town expects a wolf to be.

I believe you to be a wolf that is very deliberate in playing in ways that aren't reflective of how you think people perceive you. You switched up your situational decisions in the previous two wolfrands in order to not get caught by meta arguments and given our interaction on day 1 where I felt you were a carbon copy of previous game neon I feel like it would be all too obvious for you to switch up some of your playstyle in superficial ways just so you can avoid being pinned on meta. The problem is that you're just scummy. Your decision making has led to negative outcomes for town and contributed to a chaotic gamestate in a way that I don't think you'd do as town. You don't come across innocent of mind you seem purposefully and tactical ergo the net result is something you should be held to. And the net result is bad.

@Millium @ilario @dyachei @EnderWiggin

I am presently humouring a Belzy/Neon/Lilypetal team. What says you?

To understand my Ilario suspicion you have to recognise firstly that I have a very good track record of reading him. In the last game we were t/t I correctly townread Ilario and he suspected me for it and in post said I was one of the best players at reading him. The reason I can read Ilario is because we generally view the game similarly and find the same things suspicious. We end up coalescing.

Ilario is scummy because he's projected confidence on reads beyond a reasonable degree in ways that stood out because I was on the other side of them without information. Has managed to keep his hands too clean while the wolves have been cleaning up and has failed to coalesce with me on much when we usually mind meld a lot as town. In this game we have found ourselves diametrically opposed on reads on Alison, dyachei, Ender and others. I've largely been proven wrong when the flips come but that doesn't mean he's towny. The issue is that he shouldn't have townread Alison. If you look back through Alison's play the day she got chopped she was hard wolfsiding. Ilario townread Alison in ways that indicated he wasn't even aware of things she'd said. He was just aware she was town in spite of that. His approach to Alison reeks of TMI. And a great deal of his game has.

Neon wrote: ↑Mon Nov 14, 2022 6:31 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Nov 14, 2022 6:28 pm If you were to be like "Mac who do you think has just been wolfy in this game" Ilario would be my top scumread by some distance. Then Neon. Ender would be my top town.

But I have this gift/curse of being able to ignore my own intuitions and evaluate through level 1 scumreads which causes me to have unstable reads until I don't.

And right now I don't have enough benchmarking to feel confident on anything so I'm still in flywheel mode. Spinning spinning spinning.
Am I solely scummy because of my treatment of santy? Or is it because I suspect we are being hoodwinked here?

I don't think my wolf range is this wide I think I've clearly played in my town range... I'm just an idiot

Neon you have just had two monster wolf games in a row where you subverted ýour perceived wolfrange and dined out on people underestimating you so you really can't make this argument if you are town.

You're scummy because of the way you handled claims, some of your porscha interactions and generally being openwolfy and lying a lot.

If you were to be like "Mac who do you think has just been wolfy in this game" Ilario would be my top scumread by some distance. Then Neon. Ender would be my top town.

But I have this gift/curse of being able to ignore my own intuitions and evaluate through level 1 scumreads which causes me to have unstable reads until I don't.

And right now I don't have enough benchmarking to feel confident on anything so I'm still in flywheel mode. Spinning spinning spinning.

Neon wrote: ↑Mon Nov 14, 2022 6:25 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Nov 14, 2022 6:24 pm You're conflating me with Brad.
Me dumb and don't understand what this means

Nvm

EnderWiggin wrote: ↑Mon Nov 14, 2022 6:19 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Nov 14, 2022 6:04 pm I'm not sure you've noticed but the current meta for mafia dealing with Mac is pocket pocket pocket. Just ask Neon.
You also have a history of sussing me no matter what I do. As both alignments.

I am not Neon who gets townreads for existing =P

Until you suddenly become polarised or I suddenly decide that cycling through reads and pressuring them to see how they react is suboptimal this will be the world we live in lol.

You're conflating me with Brad.

I do thing your objections are indicative of you telling the truth here tho.

I'm not sure you've noticed but the current meta for mafia dealing with Mac is pocket pocket pocket. Just ask Neon.

EnderWiggin wrote: ↑Mon Nov 14, 2022 5:57 pm If you think I try to bring you onside when there are players I have less of a struggle pocketing in this game Mac then you really are egocentric lol.

This is a very reductionist way to argue my point.

All it needs to be is "Loverise mac n1 for obvious reasons and then let's not annoy him too much". I don't think perceiving the possibility this is the mafia plan needs to come from an egoistic perspective and I think trying to imply it does is scummy.

Millium wrote: ↑Mon Nov 14, 2022 5:55 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Nov 14, 2022 5:52 pm
Millium wrote: ↑Mon Nov 14, 2022 5:40 pm
Neon wrote: ↑Mon Nov 14, 2022 5:32 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Nov 14, 2022 5:30 pm If Belzy is town and telling the truth.

They lied about having a green check on me for several phases.

They lied about me being loverised to them even though they nearly went over and could have easily been vigged or killed by mafia.

They chose to loverise dyachei (or me if there's some mech shenanigans) when their day 1 suspicion they themselves vocalised was millium and a town lover should target a mafia suspect not a top town.

I think you just ... accept that if a player who makes these decisions is town that it's okay to lose due to their decision making. No offence to Belzy if they are town, I think we've all been there where we've made incorrect decisions in mafia but ... this stuff is egregious at every level.

If Belzy is mafia I think Ender and Rondo are probably the last 2.

If somehow Belzy is town, which is the ... feeling I cannot shake that's opening up a myriad of tinfoil possibilities. Then we are probably just losing to Ilario, dya and whoever the fuck.
I think there's like almost no chance you are lovers with Belzy to be honest. I don't trust a word they say and they've proven that to be wise and I'm wondering how much I should be trusting you too.
then he is outted when Belzy dies
You think that if Belzy died and flips mafia if I dont die I'm outed?

Please explain.
no if they arent a neighborizor, should have clarified that, sorry

And what if a different wolf is a neighboriser that targeted Belzy and Dya and ended up making Belzy and Mac chat?

I don't think you can make a salient argument that I'm ever mafia with Belzy with how I've treated them.

Also @ilario when Ender was catching up and case making he pulled some quotes that cast me in a bad light but pulled up short if highlighting the d2 Mac/Porscha interactions that spew me clear. Not my side, Porscha's side. Porscha doesn't have distancing to the degree she would have done so me in her mafia toolkit.

If Belzy dies and flips mafia but we aren't loverised I really don't see how it outs me. That's a very problematic take. I think this constant tinfoil that Belzy and I have w/w equity is ... dumb lol.

ilario wrote: ↑Mon Nov 14, 2022 5:45 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Nov 14, 2022 5:30 pm If Belzy is town and telling the truth.

They lied about having a green check on me for several phases.

They lied about me being loverised to them even though they nearly went over and could have easily been vigged or killed by mafia.

They chose to loverise dyachei (or me if there's some mech shenanigans) when their day 1 suspicion they themselves vocalised was millium and a town lover should target a mafia suspect not a top town.

I think you just ... accept that if a player who makes these decisions is town that it's okay to lose due to their decision making. No offence to Belzy if they are town, I think we've all been there where we've made incorrect decisions in mafia but ... this stuff is egregious at every level.

If Belzy is mafia I think Ender and Rondo are probably the last 2.

If somehow Belzy is town, which is the ... feeling I cannot shake that's opening up a myriad of tinfoil possibilities. Then we are probably just losing to Ilario, dya and whoever the fuck.
ender?? i mean i can see it and hope thats the case to validate my push, but what changed your mind?

Belzy being mafia would mean that I've been a pawn in the mafia game and immediately lends suspicion to those who've been more vocally aligned to me and makes the players who've been less of a Mac ally more likely to be town. It would indicate that the mafia gameplan has been to steer me since as early as n1. Ender would be the primary suspect. Lilypetal would be second.

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