Porscha wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 8:08 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 6:50 pm
Porscha wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 6:41 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 6:38 pm
Porscha wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 6:33 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 6:26 pm
Porscha wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 6:07 pm
erm, why is it not possible robyn's read on baker could be from an incorrect civ? and option 3, wouldn't that mean baker would be poe *with* robyn and therefore baker shouldn't be out of poe from your perspective?
I mean, I've given case and case as to why I think Baker is w. People, especially Robyn seem to disagree.
If Robyn is town, and js wrong, and this is lylo, then it really doesn't matter as we lose anyways. These two together just seem to indicate that it's now out of my hands to control and thus I'll move on to exploring the dichotomy around then from a winning perspective, which is, solve Robyn before Baker.
Baker is out of PoE until Robyn solved.
do you still think baker is a wolf?
Yeah, but in the scenario where I'm incorrect, I'm to trust my betters and if not betters whatever spew a wolf would give me.
Robyn's protest and the lack of Baker momentum gives more credit to the scenario where I'm incorrect than I'm normally comfortable with.
betters? and can you elaborate on the second line? not grasping what you're saying, sorry for the brain fog
If Robyn is town and knows how to read Baker better than me, then I should trust my better.
There's a higher likelihood than normal, that I'm incorrectly reading Baker. I don't think that I am, but there's a higher likelihood based on the discussion around then nonetheless. Them being Wolfy but not in PoE until other information is available is how to correct this issue.
oh okay, I hear you. I just worry that we are already at the point where it's a mistake to "leave someone wolfy out of the poe" makes it so much easier to hit a more susceptible town today and auto lose. it only helps to correct the issue you are laying out under the assumption we lynch correctly today and have another go tomorrow, which if martin was correct earlier on his math, even if we lynch correctly today we are still in lylo tomorrow, another high pressure situation. like, then what? do we say the same thing about baker tomorrow? I guess some of it will depend on who gets flipped and what they flip. but I feel like you're trying to push a difference check between baker and robyn despite admitting the possibility they could be w/w, which wolf wilgy would absolutely do here to push a miselim between 1 or 2 town. like this is giving me cold feet on my own baker read, but you both could be wolves where you just use that to push a town robyn over and get the win.
doesnt help that you voted baker to no avail day 2 - I know you will vote to bus for cred post flip or just to distance too, which lends to the possibility of the w/w world of you two.
but here - as i've admitted my weakness to reading you - I want to take it slow and see if I can get a grasp this day phase that I lacked before. can you give me any other thoughts on other worlds / pairings or even just individual wolfiness you had thoughts on throughout the game?
Aye, It's more losing to have a shit poe that's too wide than to have someone in there that you can likely be wrong on. That's just a gameplay viewpoint though.
Re tomorrow, we'll have more data. There'll be a kill and there'll be a red flip if we are still in the game, with more data we can likely have a better conclusion on Baker.
If I wanted to push a dif between Baker and Robyn I would. That'd be simple. I'd not need to hide it between the dichotomy that Robyn set up themselves.
You seem to be pointing all the ways I 'COULD' be wolf rather than just finding why I am in fact the wolf. If you think I'm setting up a dif between town for the win, say so and point it out as such. If you think I've been distancing with a wolf Baker teammate, say so and point out why. There's too many ifs and buts and not enough conclusion or decisiveness in your words my friend.
Be confident in yourself, you don't have a weakness in reading me, I think you are correct on my slot more often than not.
Working on other worlds and pairings now. Trying to take a step back and view other angles.
Simple things such as finding who has the highest likelyhood to be paired with anyone i.e. You/Delta are at least a greater chance for a hit than not.
Figuring out if Robyn's push on my slot is wolf inspired or not.
Baker and Stick are both in slots to 'solve later' as it's impossible to find the pairings that break the 3p claim without red flips and assocs and dynamics around Baker indicate more evidence would come from other's before I should vote there.
On that note, even if there's another 3rd party, there's nothing to make them counter claim Stick I presume unless they have a condition against wolfsiding. A sticky situation methinks that we can only solve with a red flip to point us towards stick.
Martin's vote record keeps appearing in my mind as 'should scrutinize this more' but idk, I think i just lose to W Martin. I think I just lose to W Scotty as well at this point. I think I'd lose to both of those slots, and think 'unfortunate I randed town this game' and leave it at that.
)