Return to “[TOWN WIN] Cool Bug Mafia”
I'll review.Wiml wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 10:19 am I missed it at first because the partner she voted was a sub and the vote was hidden at the bottom of the post.
But here you are, Roxy voting a wolf partner of hers who's outed:
https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 42#p994142
Aye and I trust Abigail's game enough to pretty much know how that would've been the best chance at resolving you._ExLight wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 7:18 amAnswer is no. I trust my wolf game enough to not be afraid of being read. You played with me before, smh.
Wilgy literally played a single game with us (is playing a game with us, rather) - the only one he has ever played with me, and it's one that doesn't have Town/Mafia, so I doubt he's able to make proper judgment on that matter.
Don't know that one.
Expected nothing. Got funny results from Wiml. Mostly NAI, but was funny nonetheless.
Because at the start of the game I was Ill and realized that Tutuu's process of utilizing PoE and town legacy would be a very good process for me this game and give me experience attempting to utilize this method. The the only player who I've practiced copying on this roster has been JJJ. JJJ flipping town meant that their efforts were genuine and there'd be little reason to redo the effort he already put in.
I utilize many methods of solving. I go out of my way to copy players I play with rather than attempting to copy/refine my own approach._ExLight wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:52 pm If we lose because of Wiml/ Michelle being wolf then it is what it is. As it was before me joining the path people were discussing was Epi+me+you (Wilgy) so it would result in a loss anyway.
I'm not, I appreciate your different approaches, I just had the impression you had self described yourself as a player that focused more on gut feeling? I might be misremembering.
Yup I believe this.Michelle wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:41 pmBrad couldn’t be saved, never, with that random pop in the thread and doing nothing.DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:17 pm Thinking about this still.Maybe Michelle 3rd if not Kate?
Like the wolf has to be here still yes? I've seen nothing to make me think otherwise. If there was a bus by Wiml, do I just accept my loss to it?
Further Falc/JJJ/Abigail are all NKs that come out of Kate/Ex.
Blah, idk if I'm to trust my gut here.
I would let my vote on him if I knew he was a wolf.
Instead hoping for a miracle, bussing would be the best course to gain town credit.
Also I wouldn't kill Falcon N1, I would always kill Jay.
Jay is a real god of mafia. He can't be kept alive except mafia hope he can be mischopped somehow. I couldn’t push Jay so I would N1ed him.
Unknown. I don't know how Michelle approaches teammates. That's a meta call I don't have the data for, nor am I conscious of Michelle's posture during the LC wagon's formation of that 3/3 split. I can review, but that'd have to be later.Wiml wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:40 pmDo you think Michelle doesn't bus (or really try to save) Lime late into D1 when he's actively lolcatting despite obviously knowing she would need to win F3? And that she is fine with him lolcatting instead of distancing for the cred or trying to live D1?
And that she opens up the PoE to push me and remove Epi when she's already winning if she pushes the status quo? Especially when that push on me is based on being annoyed at a hammer that she didn't really have a reason to be frustrated at as a wolf.
And that Lime goes out of his way to defend her early when she's wagoned even though Michelle has a reputation for being easy to read (regardless of if that reputation us actually correct or not)?
I realise this comes off as a bit accusatory but I mean this genuinely because I think she has several strong positives in her favour.
I've played by gut, nka, vca, and meta. Why are you so focused upon my gut reads?
I mean, I think it was very much a process of 'we have no reason to TR Quin' > Kate who was mostly absent BUT had afew posts that gave credit to the light TR > then Epi who's here and contributing but things can be seen as both wolfy and towny._ExLight wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:34 pm Also I'd like to point out that sticking out to the absurd Quin/Epi/Kate PoE is a more complex case of the Monty Hall problem even from just a statistical point of view. One of the worst plays that can be done here is insisting on my slot.
If we factor in other elements beyond just statistical reasoning, it's already a red flag how scum likely kept pushing the order to have the most inactive slot last (Kate's) probably in hopes not for her to sub out but to be either modkilled or lynched without resistance.
And as I said, the kills are incompatible with Kate who was too busy to keep up with the game. I'm not sure what else to say without recurring to meta elements: I don't shoot Abgail here as scum, I don't stay up til 3AM doing a catch up of like 1500 as scum, and I don't prod too many people as scum.
I'm personally feeling a lot more into doing Roxy > Wilgy for the next phases, but it might be optimal to do Wilgy > Roxy considering people have been discussing his slot more.
Your Roxy > Wilgy OR Wilgy > Roxy is going to result in the only plausible yeet to be between you and I. If you are town and you and I end up in f3 together, town will lose. If you are town and you and Roxy end up in f3 together, town will likely lose (I really don't think I'm wrong on their slot)._ExLight wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:37 pmI just don't think it's any of them? Wiml is very slightly more towny imo, but honestly if it's any of them they deserve to win imo and I'll kneel down and tell the rest of town I'm sorry for screwing up.
Phuck it. I believe you. However you are wrong on both your reads of Roxy and I.
Aye, I agree._ExLight wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:15 pmWiml was one of the main people pushing for an early Lime lynch, which they kept up throughout the day while trying to make pairings as to potential scumbud teams.
I'm aware that my previous slot doesn't look too good due to inactivity, but if I recall correctly Roxy vouched that my slot is having some issues IRL and that's why they had to sub out. As my main argument, Kate wouldn't have been able to keep up with the thread as well, and yet the night kills seem to be done by someone who's been keeping up with the game. The previous days lynches are also clearly manipulated by someone who's was pushing the Kate/Epi/Quin PoE who I am fully aware to be full town by now.
But Kate's last two posts really get me.
Maybe Michelle 3rd if not Kate?
'wilgy is scum because they aren't active enough'Michelle wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:06 pmPlease link me a town game where you were so active solvingDrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:03 pmI did care. I went through a lul in gameplay because I wanted to focus on chopping the unknown members of PoE. Don't discount my discussions and additions early game while I was pursuing a passive gameplan until said passive gameplan doesn't work anymore.
If anything it should be non alignment indicative, and I don't know why you'd say it's suspicious. Both T Wilgy AND W Wilgy benefit from playing the game more when they did.
newfound is a keyword in my statement. That development is brand new and I'm quite hesitant to accept it._ExLight wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:02 pmShe literally said earlier that you're 100% Town, lolDrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:01 pmBecause Roxy doesn't trust me.
It's very much a meta thing. Roxy is VERY hesitant to trust me, especially after Cyberpunk (which she's referenced prior). If you/me/Roxy end up in f3 and I'm wolf I'm pretty sure Roxy throws me overboard more often than not.
I say this with about 60-70% confidence. More than enough for me to be wary of a Roxy f3.
Regarding this newfound confidence in me. I'm not sure about it. It's really easy to accept it as townie mind meld, but the paranoia in me is like 'it's too easy.'
I did care. I went through a lul in gameplay because I wanted to focus on chopping the unknown members of PoE. Don't discount my discussions and additions early game while I was pursuing a passive gameplan until said passive gameplan doesn't work anymore.
Because Roxy doesn't trust me.
I've stated it previously.Wiml wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 3:55 pmOh so NOW you're arguing that the NK spews you town.DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 3:54 pmMe killing Abigail would be game losing if I were wolf. I'm pretty much always going to be a player that brings Abigail into F3 as W.Michelle wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 3:40 pmWell, I don't think you are so old, but unfortunately I am not even Esl so I will try but I can't promise a succes..Roxy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 10:52 amMichelle wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 6:04 amOk, I was really curious about your answer because my take was the opposite.
Wilgy made an almost lock town read for Abigail, so if wolf Wilgy could never chop her/ insert her into the Poe, so I thought that if Wilgy is a wolf killing her makes the most sense.
I am sorry I am having trouble with the wording of this post. Can you help an old woman out and try and rephrase this for me?
When a wolf has a strong town read for someone they usually kill that slot overnight because they can't backtrack on the read and push that slot.
I think Wilgy if wolf could kill Abigail.
I think Ex if wolf could kill her as well.
I would keep her alive as my first push in the game.
Idk much about you and Wiml, I have to reread things
Ah, my bad. Should've I remained slanky upon the game shifting so much?
Does anyone prefer to get lynched in this situation?
Me killing Abigail would be game losing if I were wolf. I'm pretty much always going to be a player that brings Abigail into F3 as W.Michelle wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 3:40 pmWell, I don't think you are so old, but unfortunately I am not even Esl so I will try but I can't promise a succes..Roxy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 10:52 amMichelle wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 6:04 amOk, I was really curious about your answer because my take was the opposite.
Wilgy made an almost lock town read for Abigail, so if wolf Wilgy could never chop her/ insert her into the Poe, so I thought that if Wilgy is a wolf killing her makes the most sense.
I am sorry I am having trouble with the wording of this post. Can you help an old woman out and try and rephrase this for me?
When a wolf has a strong town read for someone they usually kill that slot overnight because they can't backtrack on the read and push that slot.
I think Wilgy if wolf could kill Abigail.
I think Ex if wolf could kill her as well.
I would keep her alive as my first push in the game.
Idk much about you and Wiml, I have to reread things
Fun AND to see how you'd respond.
I agree with this. I don't know why you weren't included in the NKA threadspew. Maybe I'll see something related on catchup. If the thought was 'Kill Abigail who's now consensus TR and butter up Wilgy' when making the kill, it makes alot of sense if the fact it'd spew you T in likeness was forgotten.Roxy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 10:34 amPulled this quote out of a response to ExLite.DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Aug 08, 2023 10:59 pm My PoE was and is You and Wiml (has been my 'I might be wrong' for a minute now). Wiml goes from having me as the counter to now spewed. I think it's reasonable to see the agenda of 'Wiml killed Abigail and is now raising that as a positive to me to pocket me.' Further, you ask specifically for my thoughts on the subject and I don't know if I've seen your own conclusion for it yet, thus it's also reasonable for me to question 'Ex killed Abigail and is questioning me specifically, what are they hoping to impress upon me?' I have no resistance to discussing it, but both you AND wiml's discussion had me as a subject thus leading to questioning.
I thought the spewed thing was weird. PA had Me, Michelle and you in her trust circle for awhile. For Wiml to just pull you along as spewed read as a pocket attempt to try and get you to side with them for whatever their agenda is today.
It is why I hate pockets or attempts to pocket.
I mean, I accept it IF Ex is T. I think the play between T Rem and T Abigail in JJJ's first dates indicates as such if you are willing to reference that.Roxy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 10:20 amI agree. Her townreads of you, Michelle and I then being the NK is obv to me. It was made so all this posturing could happen.
For ExLite to think that PA would have townread them OVER you is really a lot to swallow and except, bc I do not except that thought at all.
Blah, I'd need to be convinced to throw out more than I've already, but maybe if the Wednesday hellscape calms down.
Pretty sure I 100% NK Ex or Roxy. My preferred f3 would always be Abigail/Me/Michelle, Abigail/Me/Roxy, Abigail/Me/You in that order of preference I think.Wiml wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:57 amI think there's all of 0 chance you NK Ex there tbh.DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Aug 08, 2023 10:15 pmAye, I think the only two to know this would get you and me, unless somehow she just got hit in the crossfire, but I don't know what would cause that.
I think though, if my goal is to really separate you and Abigail, I NK you instead and hope Abigail doesn't waver.
Is that the type of analysis you are looking for?
Was this one answered by continued reading?Wiml wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:32 amYes but you don't seem to have put any thought into what that agenda would be.
I'm the one who brought up and you thought I was doing something that would be extremely -ev as a wolf who basically always would need to miselim you this game.
Meanwhile Ex's commentary was mostly in response to me and wasn't really pushing a whole lot that I've seen.
What sort of agenda is actually being pushed here? The only one seeming to be pushing one here is you.
Why? I joined thread to see both you and ex making me the subject matter of NKA? Who wouldn't be paranoid rn anyhow?Wiml wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:23 amGiven the above, I'm struggling to see this as real paranoia and not an attempt to throw shade at me.DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Aug 08, 2023 9:49 pmYou can in asking about it immediately, Wiml had commentary on it immediately. All feels very agenda based on the NK that wolves control. You also ???'d Wiml saying I was spewed now. Your guess is as good as mine.
Being townspewed is a light clear. I think it's very easy to compare the two.
is it? I just figured that I'm garbo so you gotta have a wr higher than me and threw that number out.
50%_ExLight wrote: ↑Tue Aug 08, 2023 10:27 pmThat's a better one, yea.DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Aug 08, 2023 10:15 pmAye, I think the only two to know this would get you and me, unless somehow she just got hit in the crossfire, but I don't know what would cause that.
I think though, if my goal is to really separate you and Abigail, I NK you instead and hope Abigail doesn't waver.
Is that the type of analysis you are looking for?
Answer without thinking much, what you think my winrate is as Town?
My understanding is Roxy was inquiring about LC prior to even voting though. I think it's believable for Roxy to sheep and sheep correctly._ExLight wrote: ↑Tue Aug 08, 2023 10:26 pm It's a bit hard to tell because there aren't enough vote histories, but from I can see Roxy literally voted Lime when he was almost getting hammered, this wouldn't even count bussing, it's just placing beating a dead horse.
If anything her delaying her vote on Lime when asked about it by saying something along the lines of "I'll vote closer to EoD cuz my vote is sacred" or something shows hesitation to me.
Is there anything else?
Ok, can split quotes now._ExLight wrote: ↑Tue Aug 08, 2023 10:11 pm I'm still unsure as to what you mean by agenda. I'm not even sure how you're throwing shade at both me and Wiml at the same time when there's only one scum left. It's a vanilla game, the one of the few sources of information is who was chosen to die by scum. We're literally just discussing this to get more information, if anything your resistance to discussing it is way worse than him or me trying to conclude what that flip implies.
Aye, it is fallacious and based on strict assumption. I don't know your meta, but I do know Abigails. If Abigail had doubt about you and expressed that, I would've followed in continuing the PoE. Had Abigail expressed you were in fact 100% T Ex, I would've gone with that and would probably be voting Wiml._ExLight wrote: ↑Tue Aug 08, 2023 10:11 pm I am friends with Abgail and I'm aware that she will often be willing to trust me. Not only that but I'm pretty sure she said loud and clear that she said in-thread that she would defend me this game? We literally just came out of a game where I tried to help her win as arsonist. It's not fallacies, we got each other's back and I'm 100% sure she wouldn't hesitate to trust me when I say I'm Town.
Quoting your 3rd point here. I am not hiding behind his comment. I'm questioning where the comment came from. Original thought came after I expressed that you two seem to be both placing me in a subject matter around a wolf based action (the nk) indicating agenda (also an original thought.) You say I'm doing it all game, but that's somewhat meaningless as it's either an opinion or just kinda shitty shade that has no base? My thoughts have been plenty original.
Aye, I think the only two to know this would get you and me, unless somehow she just got hit in the crossfire, but I don't know what would cause that.
I'll be at a cpu in a minute and will be able to multi quote in a second._ExLight wrote: ↑Tue Aug 08, 2023 10:11 pm I'm still unsure as to what you mean by agenda. I'm not even sure how you're throwing shade at both me and Wiml at the same time when there's only one scum left. It's a vanilla game, the one of the few sources of information is who was chosen to die by scum. We're literally just discussing this to get more information, if anything your resistance to discussing it is way worse than him or me trying to conclude what that flip implies.
I am friends with Abgail and I'm aware that she will often be willing to trust me. Not only that but I'm pretty sure she said loud and clear that she said in-thread that she would defend me this game? We literally just came out of a game where I tried to help her win as arsonist. It's not fallacies, we got each other's back and I'm 100% sure she wouldn't hesitate to trust me when I say I'm Town.
Not even sure what you mean by third point.
