The Syndicate

Dom wrote:Anyone else find it weird that JJJ is defending FZ when he's on the lynching block??

Not especially, regardless of his alignment. Why do you ask?

I thought ninja's post looked very genuine and it was the first good ping I had of her, but

Ricochet wrote:I agree that, if I were on a bad team with JJJ and the team would have a lynch pardon to use, given the circumstances (two Days in a row), I'd opt to let JJJ bite the dust and keep the lynch pardon for other times. This makes me feel JJJ claiming the power is ingrained in his role is closer to the truth. It doesn't automatically tell me his alignment, though. Lynch survival has shown up to be town or anti-town or indy, in the past - but I should fact check this.

This touches closer to what I was trying to get at with Mac. Even before Jimmy's claim, it seemed difficult to believe that his team had protected him. Now that he has claimed, we can separate the lynch and team-indication. After all, if it's a passive ability then there's still no reason for scummates not to bus Jimmy. So Jimmy could still be scum for any number of reasons, but the fact that he survived a lynch doesn't seem like additional evidence towards that.

MacDougall wrote:

HamburgerBoy wrote:

MacDougall wrote:FYI HB you literally let him buddy you into changing your vote. Kudos for being such a pussy.

Since when does roleclaim = buddying? What's the advantage to lynching him now even if he is scum? Can you agree that it seems like a waste for his own team to have saved him from death, if his claim is fake?

The buddying was the part where he civ read you despite you "scum" reading him. Followed by your apparent scum read of him resulting in you now moving your vote.

Did you really just ask what the advantage was to lynching him now even if he is scum? Lynching a scum would result in the lynch of a scum.

Also Jimmy's claim means his role passively caused the failed lynch, not anything his team did. There was no way to stop it. So whatever you're getting at is irrelevant.

He civ-read me on day 3.0 as well, and that obviously didn't help him any when I basically led the case against him.

Although now I think you're right about the team thing. I said I was going to sort things out in my Tranq vote but clearly I'm not thinking clearly as to the total consequences of this roleclaim. Blech. In any case I don't really mind a Jimmy lynch, I just think the roleclaim and other things at least gives a little reason to consider him as a civ, and to look for other candidates.

Ricochet wrote:

HamburgerBoy wrote:

MacDougall wrote:FYI HB you literally let him buddy you into changing your vote. Kudos for being such a pussy.

Since when does roleclaim = buddying? What's the advantage to lynching him now even if he is scum? Can you agree that it seems like a waste for his own team to have saved him from death, if his claim is fake?

Come again?

If Jimmy is scum, it seems like there are two scum teams at play, one of them containing the person that cursed Draconus and Boomslang. They will be just as compelled as we are to kill Jimmy. Even if it doesn't happen right away, it presumably has to happen for that other team to win eventually.

MacDougall wrote:FYI HB you literally let him buddy you into changing your vote. Kudos for being such a pussy.

Since when does roleclaim = buddying? What's the advantage to lynching him now even if he is scum? Can you agree that it seems like a waste for his own team to have saved him from death, if his claim is fake?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:lol as if I'm not actively trying to get lynched right now

My continued survival is the worst thing for town at this point. Y'all will never shut the hell up about it.

This is a weird post tbh. People were on and off about you during Talking Heads for most of the game, and I remember even saying in the chatroom that even if you were town, it looked like you were fighting too hard for your survival when your death come lylo seemed imminent, and that it was only hurting the other hapless townies being sacrificed. In the end it obviously paid off cuz you and Rico stayed thoroughly analytical and your Blind thing put a coin flip in town's favor, so why are you saying this now?

DharmaHelper wrote:I don't believe you. A civvie doesn't role out that kind of power, especially at this time of day.

But his role is useless now, right? As he wrote it, the power has already been consumed. If he's telling the truth as a civvie, there's no reason for him not to out it.

Also, a seemer is usually required to declare a target at a specific time, right? That way, if anyone knocks off Jimmy on a random night, there will be a higher chance the flip was genuine.

Question to Syndicaters: is it normal for a seemer role to change both alignment and role? E.g. could someone be out there with a "JaggedJimmyJay. Towniest town. Immune to a single death of any kind" write-up?

I'm going to switch to Tranq temporarily until I sort things out and know where to go next. If JJJ is lying, it will come to bite him eventually. If there are multiple anti-town factions out there, no matter his alignment he should eventually come under fire. I think staying on him would be a waste of a lynch.

Ever since I noticed the "limited role claiming" thing I've been waiting for someone to do it defensively.

Convenient claim, but considering my logistical issues with a scumteam cancelling the lynch, it kind of makes sense to me. The big question mark would be why you didn't claim yesterday; even acknowledging that you were busy and needed to leave, the poll was rapidly winding down to a 1-on-1. While it would mean scum would hesitate to target you thereafter, you'd still remain a townie thorn in their side as long as you lived.

My thoughts don't require Jimmy to be on Zebra's team. What do you think about the alternatives?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:In which DH acts soooo surprised and perturbed by the LoRab wagon, as if it was somehow inherently more suspicious than the Boomslang wagon or the llama wagon. Again he is only interested in touching the observable surface of the thread and not actually think about anything. It's transparent bullshit.

I have to side with DH on this one. I think it was inherently more suspicious because she was being mentioned as a minor case since early in the game, and I had definitely warned about that long before the LoRab wagon suddenly built. By day 3 it was seemed it had fizzled out, Epi still on it but most people looking elsewhere, and then suddenly it happens all over again with almost no new discussion. Granted, Sorsha had been a major voice against LoRab as well, and golden was at least transparent in his reason for moving things there, but beyond that it was definitely on the shady side. For a player like DH, who may not know how often we have rapid lynch changes like that on RYM, I could especially see his suspicion.

I'm going to try and re-analyze what could have happened. First, the fundamental assumption:

1. Jimmy almost certainly didn't realize he was building a case against someone cursed (Boomslang). If he did, then it would mean risking that someone (golden in this case) would discover the curse, which would definitively kill the wagon.
2. Assuming Zebra's team doesn't have a second curse-caster, it means the person that cursed Boomslang was not on Jimmy's team.
3. Therefore, if Jimmy is scum, it means he is either on Zebra's team, or some kind of smaller third-party team/indy thing.

I feel about 99% confident about the above, because it would be a big waste when Jimmy could have just as easily cased some other quieter poster, or doubled-down on LoRab to start things off, or stuck with llama, or whatever else.

Now, a few points of consideration:

1. If Jimmy is on Zebra's team and stopped that lynch, it didn't buy him much time, and surely they'd know it. If that team only had a single lynch stop, it would seem wasteful to use it now rather than later. If Zebra's team wanted bussing points, they would have cashed that check on the first lynch (especially since the cancellation voids bussing points even if Jimmy does flip scum today).
2. If Jimmy (of any alignment) isn't on Zebra's team, why would the other scum team stop the lynch? If the other team had a strong feeling that Jimmy could/would survive a narrow lynch, then
a) LoRab was protected by scummates
b) The other team seriously feared another day/night cycle of Jimmy enough to guarantee a huge anti-Jimmy landslide
c) The person stopping the lynch feared immediate 3.5 retribution for a town Jimmy flip
Noting those three aren't mutually exclusive.

The thing that really throws a wrench into all of it is if a civvie canceled the lynch just because they trusted Jimmy and/or LoRab. Even if that is the case, and it very well could be because both alternatives above seem a little weird to me, it would mean that it's fallacious to suspect Jimmy because it failed. It also means that whoever stopped the lynch was working solo, however, which would mean the votes cast during 3.0 still hold value (i.e. scum didn't know the lynch would be cancelled), which is a good thing.

I really want someone to tell me what parts of the above they buy/don't buy. I'm far from sold that Jimmy is 100% scum, and taken all together I think Mac could easily be on the team responsible for stopping the lynch.

bea wrote:

HamburgerBoy wrote:Also, if Jimmy is scum, by doing this they also managed to devalue this narrow gap. If they know the lynch doesn't count, they know that anyone voting for Jimmy could have just as easily been bussing without a worry. It's also therefore expected that someone from Jimmy's scumteam would have been around in the last hour or two as the bandwagons built. The results of this don't make Dharma look good, at least.

How so? Humor me for needing it spelled out like I'm a 3 year old. DH read remarkably well reasoned to me and my new eyes today. (not remarkable for DH - DH is an awesome player- just that I've not always followed his line of thought easily recently and I was shocked at how much what he said made sense to me.)

I'm saying that if Jimmy is scum and was saved by a scummate cancelling the lynch, it means a couple scummates could have easily piled on and voted Jimmy, because they knew the lynch wouldn't count. In effect, it makes it very difficult to get information on who is good and bad on each bandwagon. I'm really starting to consider switching to Mac right now.

DrWilgy wrote:When I was upto date I thought she was slightly scumdoodle but I don't remember what triggered that thought process.

I voted JJJ the otherday simply because I agreed with HBB and LC, they are also the civviest to me so far.

What do you think of FZ. Marmot?

Why me? You had me sussed earlier in the game.

HamburgerBoy wrote:Actually, something just came to mind, not sure if this was mentioned already. If Jimmy was scum and used Boomslang as a convenient target for a lynch, this would mean the team that cursed Boomslang almost certainly wouldn't be on Jimmy's team. Under certain circumstances I could see that as a gambit, but JJJ was seriously in trouble and I don't think he would have thrown away a convenient get-away, allowing his team to spare a lynch-cancel, just to pull that. I know people have already suggested a symmetry where both teams can curse, but this seems like more concrete evidence of that. Of course, if the lynch was canceled for some other random reason unrelated to whether or not Jimmy is actually scum, then it could still imply the team that cursed Boomslang was the same that canceled the lynch.

I should add: assuming two symmetrical scum teams, that would mean the people that cursed Boomslang were on a different team from Zebra's. Most of my reasoning against Jimmy has been from the POV that he is a scummate of Zebra's, so I'm actually starting to consider that it wasn't Jimmy's team that stopped this lynch, which would imply disregard for Jimmy's reputation in this game.

Actually, something just came to mind, not sure if this was mentioned already. If Jimmy was scum and used Boomslang as a convenient target for a lynch, this would mean the team that cursed Boomslang almost certainly wouldn't be on Jimmy's team. Under certain circumstances I could see that as a gambit, but JJJ was seriously in trouble and I don't think he would have thrown away a convenient get-away, allowing his team to spare a lynch-cancel, just to pull that. I know people have already suggested a symmetry where both teams can curse, but this seems like more concrete evidence of that. Of course, if the lynch was canceled for some other random reason unrelated to whether or not Jimmy is actually scum, then it could still imply the team that cursed Boomslang was the same that canceled the lynch.

I thought that was exclusively directed to me. I don't see others posting numbers either. Are you being serious right now?

MacDougall wrote:What do you mean by position related power?

Meaning if they only had a lynch-cancel because they were in a specific position, using it today would not impact use of it on a later day. (I'm talking about positions as described in Zebra's role, in case that was the confusing part.)

HamburgerBoy wrote:Here's a number of reasons for this outcome that I can see, in no specific order...

1. Jimmy was scum, LoRab was town. His team agreed to spare him this lynch with a specific power, either because it was a limited-time offer (e.g. a position-related power), or because saving Jimmy was really important to them, or something along those lines.
2. Jimmy was scum, LoRab was town. His team had a couple hidden extra votes up their sleeves, and knew that a tie would end in a no-lynch.
3. Jimmy was town, LoRab was scum. Her tear team thought Jimmy would look even worse for not being lynched, and while it means they wasted an opportunity to lynch a strong town player in the short run, they managed to turn a double-day (something usually favoring town) into a single day and still get Jimmy in the end, all the while making everyone that voted Jimmy look horrible.
4. Jimmy was scum, LoRab was scum (both on the same teams). Lose-lose for them, and since the LoRab bandwagon was largely propagated by golden (who I still lean town on), maybe they didn't want to risk giving up their team in order to create a third lynch.
5. Jimmy was indy with a protective ability, LoRab was who even cares what. Jimmy wouldn't have a choice but to protect himself.

Someone feel free to add more or explain why you think any of them are highly improbable.

Oh, and

6. A well-intending townie decided to cancel the lynch because they thought it came up too suddenly, felt bad for both suspects, and wanted to see more discussion on it.

I really hope it isn't that though.

MacDougall wrote:

HamburgerBoy wrote:Also, if Jimmy is scum, by doing this they also managed to devalue this narrow gap. If they know the lynch doesn't count, they know that anyone voting for Jimmy could have just as easily been bussing without a worry. It's also therefore expected that someone from Jimmy's scumteam would have been around in the last hour or two as the bandwagons built. The results of this don't make Dharma look good, at least.

Or you, or me. Why would DH be the person who it doesn't make look good, and not me who you were already questioning the motives of?

You too of course. I thought DH would be less likely to speak out if I had flipped things and only accused you, though.

Here's a number of reasons for this outcome that I can see, in no specific order...

1. Jimmy was scum, LoRab was town. His team agreed to spare him this lynch with a specific power, either because it was a limited-time offer (e.g. a position-related power), or because saving Jimmy was really important to them, or something along those lines.
2. Jimmy was scum, LoRab was town. His team had a couple hidden extra votes up their sleeves, and knew that a tie would end in a no-lynch.
3. Jimmy was town, LoRab was scum. Her tear team thought Jimmy would look even worse for not being lynched, and while it means they wasted an opportunity to lynch a strong town player in the short run, they managed to turn a double-day (something usually favoring town) into a single day and still get Jimmy in the end, all the while making everyone that voted Jimmy look horrible.
4. Jimmy was scum, LoRab was scum (both on the same teams). Lose-lose for them, and since the LoRab bandwagon was largely propagated by golden (who I still lean town on), maybe they didn't want to risk giving up their team in order to create a third lynch.
5. Jimmy was indy with a protective ability, LoRab was who even cares what. Jimmy wouldn't have a choice but to protect himself.

Someone feel free to add more or explain why you think any of them are highly improbable.

So there's at least a possibility that this was a tie, and that scum knew this could be the result of a tie. If that was the case, one more thing in favor of Jimmy being scum.

Also, if Jimmy is scum, by doing this they also managed to devalue this narrow gap. If they know the lynch doesn't count, they know that anyone voting for Jimmy could have just as easily been bussing without a worry. It's also therefore expected that someone from Jimmy's scumteam would have been around in the last hour or two as the bandwagons built. The results of this don't make Dharma look good, at least.

Golden wrote:And if he is civ and his ability is to survive a death, why not survive this one?

Stopping a lynch is hardly predominately a scum ability.

I'll admit though... I'm interested in JJ's reaction too, because I think you are more likely to fight to avoid using up your ability if it is a team ability and you can only use it on one person. If I'm town and can survive a lynch, I probably make it more clear that I can survive and put less effort into not being lynched than JJ did.

Exactly, it doesn't read like a town action to me.

Golden wrote:

HamburgerBoy wrote:Jimmy

A moment ago, your vote for Jimmy was primarily comparative, in that you'd perhaps have voted for others (eg sorsha) before voting for him.

So why are you immediately voting for him again?

linki @marmot Oh, Bowie Rickman

Because Jimmy was leading and if he's scum and his team can stop a lynch, why not this one?

I just checked the rules and don't see it explicitly mentioned, but I'm assuming it's still the case that a tied lynch would result in a coinflip?

For Syndicaters, is it usually in the case of a double-day that any effects (e.g. silencing) on day X.0 would carry over to X.1?

MacDougall wrote:Linki: When did I OMGUS you for suspecting Jimmy? That doesn't even make sense.

It wasn't direct, but you placed your day 2 vote on me shortly after I started suspecting Jimmy and I took it as an OMGUS and defensive. At least, I think that's how it went down; I can't find the post right now.

Golden wrote:Why do you feel good about LoRab?

Because I feel bad about Black Rock and Sorsha, I disagree with the significance of the cases against her (from them and Epi), and I think she's the easiest-button counterlynch and that it built so easily today shows it.

Golden wrote:No. If that is how you'd expressed it, then no, I wouldn't be suspicious of that at all. You didn't express it that way, though... I would call you a very vocal voice in getting JJJ lynched regardless of what other options were on the table.

But, people are calling, for example, FZ suspicious when she was completely open and up front that her vote was a direct comparative vote (for suspicious of LoRab than JJJ).

So is mine... I was looking for a target of one person, any person, who I suspected was bad who I could actually get lynched instead of someone I strongly believe is town. JJJ is, in fact, my strongest town read

I think the wagon on JJJ is the one that is wack. The person I'm most amazed about is, in some ways, Mac... who, if you recall, was preaching on day zero about how amazing his initial instincts are, and how bad LoRab was, but isn't voting for her right now.

Please re-read my day 3 history again. My first post to even name Jimmy explicitly said I was leaning against lynching him, and I voted for llama. I even posted a justification for voting llama that you said you missed and agreed with. I wanted to wait and see where a town Jimmy would decide to place his case; the one on Boomslang was not what I was looking for, in terms of justification (the effort was still 100% there of course).

Mac joining my side does have me suspicious, especially since he OMGUS'd me day 2 for my Jimmy suspicion. I don't trust him, but I don't mind having him on my side this vote.

Sorsha wrote:

HamburgerBoy wrote:I mean, golden, if you had only started a bandwagon against Sorsha instead I would have been cool with that. You can't seriously look at my history and be surprised that I would vote Jimmy over LoRab.

In your defense, I have a bunch of fresh new scumspects to compete with you on the orange-red side of the rainbow.

I appreciate it juliets, we never know what kind of extra-vote shenanigans may be at play.

I mean, golden, if you had only started a bandwagon against Sorsha instead I would have been cool with that. You can't seriously look at my history and be surprised that I would vote Jimmy over LoRab.

Golden wrote:If he is lynched and comes back civ, I'll be putting a vote on HB as soon as the next day begins.

So do you think I'm putting all of my effort into getting a town Jimmy lynched just because town Jimmy is so dangerous to scum? I've been vocally against him longer than anyone in the game I think, and I don't remember you taking too much issue with my suspicions, even if you didn't agree with most/any of them. Do you think I am protecting Boomslang or llama?

Golden wrote:

HamburgerBoy wrote:Not posting = not playing tho, and based on seeing Tranq both as a townie and a recruited scum, I can't imagine this is normal for him.

I don't think he was recruited in WR.

Killcruited or whatever right? Wasn't he a zombie recruited by juliets?

Not posting = not playing tho, and based on seeing Tranq both as a townie and a recruited scum, I can't imagine this is normal for him.

juliets wrote:I am taking the position that Tranq is not silenced. I mean, who would silence him he's been silent all game. Now he comes in and votes for Lorab after being in no conversation about the dynamic of this lynch. I am voting him.

Place it where it matters, vote Jimmy to negate Tranq's vote.

Golden wrote:

HamburgerBoy wrote:In fairness Jimmy's vote for self-preservation is obvious, and FZ at least seemed favorable towards Jimmy prior to the LoRab rush. If Jimmy is scum, though, I think it means FZ was definitely a partner and distancing herself from the Boomslang thing just a little bit, maybe because they thought Boomslang's lynch was going to happen and come back town. Tranq is super massive scum though if he isn't silenced.

I agree that if JJ is scum, FZ is quite possibly a teammate.

I think it much more likely JJ isn't scum, though.

I also don't think Tranq is scum. This is pretty standard Tranq.

Not making a single post in a day while still voting is standard Tranq? Definitely not the Tranq I saw during A World Reborn, even prior to his conversion into a zombie.

Super safe = he didn't want to step on anyone's toes, and while he posted a lot, he didn't make significant targeted attacks from my viewpoint.

Plenty of possibilities for why he wouldn't vote llama. Maybe llama and Jimmy were partners and forced into bussing because of the circumstances of Zebra's death. Maybe Jimmy worried that if Syndicaters saw a Jimmy-llama tie, that they wouldn't vote for one of their own. Maybe he thought llama interest was dying down, but knew that I was getting more skeptical of Jimmy. Etc.

And Boomslang was hardly a desperate counterwagon, a lot of people were considering him until I came out against it, followed by Mac (whose intent I'll admit I do not trust), and then you bringing up the curse thing. It could have happened.

In fairness Jimmy's vote for self-preservation is obvious, and FZ at least seemed favorable towards Jimmy prior to the LoRab rush. If Jimmy is scum, though, I think it means FZ was definitely a partner and distancing herself from the Boomslang thing just a little bit, maybe because they thought Boomslang's lynch was going to happen and come back town. Tranq is super massive scum though if he isn't silenced.

Golden wrote:I'm doing it mostly because I think the case on JJ holds no merit at all and I have no idea how he is one of the two people even in the frame.

How about JJJ played super safe day 2 when people were considering that he could be Zebra's scumpartner, only got more aggressive day 3 when he really realized his life waas on the line, and made a giant case against Boomslang that didn't hold at all to scrutiny?

But you specifically said you wouldn't vote for Jay, and Jay said he was cool with a LoRab lynch (I think he had her low on his rainbow too), so the outcome should have been obvious. And Sorsha is one of my least townie reads this game, so that doesn't make me feel any better.

Ricochet wrote:LoRab has received six votes in 30 minutes. Tranq has 0 mentions of her and I'm getting slightly pissy at players telling me I should wait for this guy to "warm up his game".

Tranq had better post right now if he isn't silenced.

Golden wrote:That really doesn't answer the reason why Jay would shift from suspecting llama to going after Boomslang.

Jay didn't consolidate anyone around boomslang. It failed.

If Jay was bad, he had literally no reason to shift from suspecting llama, to start seeing him as good. He could have continued to consolidate his 'old power base' around llama and make sure he himself didn't get lynched.

I don't follow your logic at all. I want to understand your vote for Jay but I don't.

@sorsha - on a gut based level, you feel like the sorsha I trusted in world reborn, yes.

Matt and Draco haven't changed their votes yet, so it's premature to say it failed. In any case, I think an appeal to the middle-ground against someone like LoRab is the easy way to go to move things in a new direction.

Golden wrote:

HamburgerBoy wrote:

Ricochet wrote:Dem switcheroos.

LoRab just received four votes in the last 10 minutes.

Pretty disgusting counter-wagon, isn't it? Just when things were getting interesting, it's right back to the same ole.

You think that isn't interesting?

Oh, it will definitely be interesting to see the flip no matter what it is, especially since we've got 3.1 to look forward to, but I was looking forward to something more fresh.

Ricochet wrote:Dem switcheroos.

LoRab just received four votes in the last 10 minutes.

Pretty disgusting counter-wagon, isn't it? Just when things were getting interesting, it's right back to the same ole.

Voting Jimmy now.

re: golden, people on the llama bandwagon are generally going to be those more won over by Jay than llama; in effect, he's just re-consolidating an old power base with a new target.

Golden wrote:But JJ already had suspicion of llama. Why ignore the viable counterwagon that already exists and completely be consistent with JJJ's stated suspicions, instead turning it around in a completely different direction which risks his own lynch more?

I'm not sure I follow that logic from a baddie mindset.

Weaken both wagons a little, so that the new target comes out ahead? Especially since now you publicly said that you'd unvote llama and vote Boomslang just to protect JJJ.

FZ, Is Boomslang usually a more active, aggressive, or otherwise notable presence when town?

Good call on the curse, golden, I hadn't noticed that.