The Syndicate

Breaking down why and why not everyone is mafia:

Syn
MAFIA:
-has terrible votes
-Epi had some pretty softball interactions with him, and not much else
-syn had some pretty cutesy interactions that he doesn’t really have with anyone else
-focused on me/thunal as a diff check which is probably 2 miselims
-has been a wet towel today at times

NOT MAFIA:
-has shown a willingness to die for the cause
-his peripherals with epi are just SO bad, it seems too easy
-is bringing up some good points on people today


nutella
MAFIA:
-has been the tunnel of Epi, but has never actually gotten traction with epi’s lackluster case
-had some frustration with Lime Coke’s claim that I am not certain is exactly towny frustration
-toward eod yesterday started attempting to steer town to going thunal/svs

NOT MAFIA:
-has been the tunnel of Epi, which to this extent I think also could be seen as simultaneously unlikely if they are teamed
-has had rather fluid reads and willingness to change her mind
-pushed for an Epi vote D1 unprompted


Rico
MAFIA:
-after having no pulse in the game, made a defining vote for Epi, then proclaimed he was cleared because of it today
-has seemingly woken up from his coma and changed his game now that only 1 mafia is left

NOT MAFIA:
-after having no pulse in the game, made a defining vote for Epi when he could have easily voted thunal, giving w!rico a 2v5 today
-Epi made an offhanded comment shading Rico when there were still technically 3 votes up for grabs that could have been used on rico
-has seemingly woken up from his coma and changed his game now that 1 mafia is dead


SVS
MAFIA:
-took forever to vote for Epi, only because she boxed herself in by completely clearing Thunal because just trust her
-?? I’m having a hard time with this one

NOT MAFIA:
-I just.,,don’t think she’s mafia this game. If she is, gg


Thunal
MAFIA:
-her posts throughout the game have felt practiced, and structured in such a way to read what i often find as what we want to hear
-ehhhh

NOT MAFIA:
-there’s just a lot that point to not mafia with epi’s flip


Falcon
MAFIA:
-is about as absent from Epi’s iso as my dad was for most of my childhood
-his posts don’t inspire confidence
-his votes have been objectively bad

NOT MAFIA:
-made the same ‘vote without reading the rules’ to start the game as Epi, which seems unlikely
-has brought up some strong points about Rico that i happen to agree with
-is a bit different, talking a lot about his own mafia meta that intends to differentiate from this game that are a bit heavy handed from a wolf falcon

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 11:12 pm

Syn wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 11:02 pm

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Sat Aug 12, 2023 8:25 pm

Marmot wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 2:11 am Syn
SVS
Scotty
nutella
Thunal
Rico
falcon
Epi


I feel pretty solid about the upper half of this list. Nutella I could still see being wrong on, but I'm very content with a townread there for now.

Solve is prolly in Rico, Thunal & I




Or is that too obvious?

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 11:01 pm I'm fine with Syn or Nut this RD

Progression?

I've been sus of you for awhile, and Nut looks like decent partner distancing on Epi's behalf





I still am tinfoiled re: Rico being a deciding vote on a Maf, and not getting NKd

Unfortunately I am the only one that agrees with you RE rico,
And coincidentally I also think you are sketch

Those two thoughts happen to exist together

Syn wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 11:02 pm

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Sat Aug 12, 2023 8:25 pm

Marmot wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 2:11 am Syn
SVS
Scotty
nutella
Thunal
Rico
falcon
Epi


I feel pretty solid about the upper half of this list. Nutella I could still see being wrong on, but I'm very content with a townread there for now.

Solve is prolly in Rico, Thunal & I




Or is that too obvious?

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 11:01 pm I'm fine with Syn or Nut this RD

Progression?

>

S~V~S wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 9:51 pm @Thunal33

I do think we all have the same group of names. Scotty trying to put Rico into the PoE is just making me a tad paranoid.

Channeling LOST; live together or die alone.

Hey neat! I was mafia in that game!

It’s been so long since I was mafia, I fear what will happen when I roll it next

S~V~S wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 9:42 pm I agree discussion is productive, but don’t forget that today is the first day someone hasn’t forced us into wagons we font necessarily want with vanity votes.

This is like the old days. ALL Votes were unchangeable and locked; making a dopey vote got you yeeted. I don’t miss those days, I don’t like this, lol.

Yeah, YEAH! I agree with SVS, this is @DrWilgy’s fault if we lose

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 9:37 pm I still think Syn looks the worst looking back.

Syn wrote: ↑Fri Aug 11, 2023 3:25 pm [VOTE: Thunal] aubergine

Syn wrote: ↑Fri Aug 11, 2023 3:43 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Fri Aug 11, 2023 2:54 pm It's Thunal and SVS guys lol.

I have been town-reading SVS but this EOD and now Thunal's response makes a lot of sense with this world

Syn wrote: ↑Fri Aug 11, 2023 3:56 pm it's more gradual 45ing. she breadcrumbed the switch for a while

i for one won't be making her answer for anything uwu

Voting me right after Nutella, floating SVS after Nutella thought it was me/SVS despite townreading her earlier, and then sticking by that looks quite bad.

Falcon doesn't really push anything mainstream. He pushed a Syn scumread at a time when it was unlikely to get traction and didn't voice any take on me d2. There's nothing really stopping an Epi/Falcon team from being very disconnected from each other but there's also not much pointing towards it other than PoE.

----------------------
imo discussion about the elim is productive regardless of Syn's alignment since it's another day of AI info. I think I do want to vote Syn today.

I think everyone, including Syn, think Syn looks objectively the worst. It just seems too easy and obvious

Is there such a thing?

I should clarify about my turnabout with Syn:
-epi’s interactions, Syn’s voting progressions have very high partner equity
-Syn is just so perfect of a fit that I think it’s too perfect

S~V~S wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 8:57 pm @Scotty I have an exercise for you.

Let’s say Rico just fell off the edge of the earth.

GTH, Syn or Falcon?

Now you:
GTH Syn or falcon?

Scotty wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 9:13 pm

S~V~S wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 8:57 pm @Scotty I have an exercise for you.

Let’s say Rico just fell off the edge of the earth.

GTH, Syn or Falcon?

Atm? Falcon

Also, if what you say is true, rico would have a lot in common with the creator of the segway

S~V~S wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 8:57 pm @Scotty I have an exercise for you.

Let’s say Rico just fell off the edge of the earth.

GTH, Syn or Falcon?

Atm? Falcon

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 8:48 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 8:42 pm

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 8:37 pm How do you currently feel on Rico, Scotty? Because I have a concern that you're trying to expand the PoE by including him.

The thing about a POE is that it’s a process of elimination. In my reread I started feeling like something was off about Rico’s play.

My current POE I think is between Rico and falcon, and then Syn.

Is that too expansive of a POE?

No, a 3 person PoE is winning but the consensus PoE also includes you. If you're town and have a correct PoE of 2, you can afford to be in that PoE. However if you were a wolf and got Rico, Falcon, and Syn eliminated you would win.

That’s true

I mean I’m definitely deserving of being in the general POE based on our interactions. It’s just that I’m actually town and am looking to just end it.

With a 3 person POE:
It’s 6v1. Misyeet today, 4v1 tomorrow. Misyeet, we’re in lylo at 2v1.

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 8:37 pm How do you currently feel on Rico, Scotty? Because I have a concern that you're trying to expand the PoE by including him.

The thing about a POE is that it’s a process of elimination. In my reread I started feeling like something was off about Rico’s play.

My current POE I think is between Rico and falcon, and then Syn.

Is that too expansive of a POE?

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 8:27 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 8:16 pm

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 8:11 pm @Scotty this is the game where Rico stepped up a lot d3.

viewtopic.php?t=2526

He put in more effort d1 and d2 than he did here, but it was still a huge effort difference once he decided to pick it up.

Lol I even modded that game. I truly don’t even remember it.

So I see the patented, well-formatted breakdowns he did in D1, but outside of that, it seems like a completely different rico. I wonder if he replicates that sort of deepdive thing as bad. I would assume he would just to keep up appearances.

Obviously the idea here is that he just hasn’t had time to devote to this game until just now, I just find the timing fishy.

He did say he went to a concert, but his uptick was in part game motivated regardless because he even said "now there's a shot i kinda wanna play". I think either he was energized by a mafia flip or he was making a last stand effort and I'm leaning the former. I still don't think wolf Rico believes voting Epi is a winning strategy. After doing nothing for 2 phases and being floated often as an elim option, I really doubt he believes he could deepwolf and get 3 mislims.

If wolf Rico doesn’t do that, what other strategy do you see him employing that he can feasibly get to the end?

Because all I see is fodder that has to eventually get eliminated

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 8:21 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 8:12 pm

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 8:06 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 1:43 am I am probably going to vote for Scotty

@Thunal33 I think the seemingly too on the nose hard defense route is actually quite plausible for Epi to take.

On the other hand I also thought the "Syn - purple" was a bad look, not a good one.

It is between the two for sure. I think Scotty feels more like a wolf by play today (and find him overall easier to retrofit as wolf than syn). Plus there was the prior confidence I had on him d2 for... some other reason. And my prior confidence was right on Epi so might as well listen to it again.

It's certainly possible re: the hard defense. About the Syn being purple, it's a small thing that some wolves tend to have a hard time singling out their partner in a readslist but Epi might be willing to do that.

I'm currently leaning that Syn looks worse from recent interactions.

What about his interactions Ping you?

I read his posts about wanting to die as performative. He spent so much energy talking about that he's not a wolf but he still wants to die that my instinct was that he was doing reverse psychology. I'm not so confident about that now that I've caught up because this post read as genuine to me:

Syn wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 10:35 am
what is with this disingenuous rewriting of my behaviour today? first scotty, now you? I have poked at ISOs, mused on behaviours, but the only thing that gets brought up is "sacrificial lamb" when I have very clearly explained the logic of my approach and nobody has been able to actually argue against that logic except by throwing shade and mocking me. scotty makes sense why he'd do that, but I don't grok why you would hop on that train as well

"reverse psychology" when it's other people going "hmm maybe I will vote elsewhere actually " which just means if you end up picking someone else, and they flip green, we'll just be back here tomorrow doing this entire "oh maybe it's syn!!!!!" thing again and wasting time until F3. every minute spent being paranoid about me is a minute spent not actually hunting the wolf, and in a mountainous game and with these interactions, it's extremely unlikely that I talk my way back into a solid town read. and the effort required to do so, again, means it's effort not going into finding the wolf.

I have no idea how I can explain the logic better so that people understand it, and it is frankly baffling

stop tinfoiling me. remove "syn could be a wolf after all" from your mind. embrace that I am the pick for today, and solve for who is left with that in mind. it limits the maneuverability of the wolf and completely eliminates an entire avenue of WIFOM and chaos. we have the leeway to make this choice today, but we do not tomorrow. a wolf can do a lot for their own survival if the longevity of my slot is up for debate. remove the debate. force them into navigating a world they are likely uncomfortable with.

I’m with you. I’ve actually been thinking he might just be town. Lol if he is actually using reverse psychology, because well done.

I can see his town perspective, even if he has been absolutely putting up a wall with me today

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 8:11 pm @Scotty this is the game where Rico stepped up a lot d3.

viewtopic.php?t=2526

He put in more effort d1 and d2 than he did here, but it was still a huge effort difference once he decided to pick it up.

Lol I even modded that game. I truly don’t even remember it.

So I see the patented, well-formatted breakdowns he did in D1, but outside of that, it seems like a completely different rico. I wonder if he replicates that sort of deepdive thing as bad. I would assume he would just to keep up appearances.

Obviously the idea here is that he just hasn’t had time to devote to this game until just now, I just find the timing fishy.

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 8:06 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 1:43 am I am probably going to vote for Scotty

@Thunal33 I think the seemingly too on the nose hard defense route is actually quite plausible for Epi to take.

On the other hand I also thought the "Syn - purple" was a bad look, not a good one.

It is between the two for sure. I think Scotty feels more like a wolf by play today (and find him overall easier to retrofit as wolf than syn). Plus there was the prior confidence I had on him d2 for... some other reason. And my prior confidence was right on Epi so might as well listen to it again.

It's certainly possible re: the hard defense. About the Syn being purple, it's a small thing that some wolves tend to have a hard time singling out their partner in a readslist but Epi might be willing to do that.

I'm currently leaning that Syn looks worse from recent interactions.

What about his interactions Ping you?

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 6:52 pm

S~V~S wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 4:22 pm

Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 9:32 pm I don't think falcon or Scotty is mafia.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 11:39 pm In case I go over, here you go:

Falcon - Good
Marmot - Bad
Nutella - Bad (Still owe a reread though)
Ricochet- ???
Scotty - Good
S~V~S - ???
Syn - Purple
Thunal - Bad

I mean, these are the only two times Epi typed out "Falcon". Any other mention of him in Epis ISO is a quote of someone else, mostly reads lists. And he doesn't weigh in on him at all in any of those posts.

It isn't like Scotty that he addressed at length.

These are the only two people Epi calls "good", and his treatment of them is very different. He says Falcon = Good, but no where does he say why

So, imo, one of these is likely Epis partner, and I'm more inclined to think it's Falcon.

It's not.




I'm not sure if scum Epi puts his teammate in his TRs actually...Nutella is an interesting read in his list




How does Epi treat that slot?

Really bad. Like throughline has been advocating yeeting nutella all game

Gotta admit I wrote off falcon because what wolf team comes in with the same ‘I didn’t read the rules’ strategy…but in a vacuum, looking at falcon’s iso has a lot of team equity, especially in D1.

I rechecked the Warbreaker game where he was yeeted as mafia D1 and despite what he says, he has many similarities here. Those were a bit more one-liner off handed fluffy. His D1 here was maybe a tiny bit wordier? Not enough of a difference to see him making the post about maf falcon being less active

S~V~S wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 1:25 pm

Syn wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 12:27 pm

Syn wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 12:08 pm you are indirectly on to something though with the point about epi's capacity: what was epi's goal with his play? was he just inactive and doing his best under the circumstances, or was there a specific intended result in mind?

and with that in mind, and another read of his ISO, I come to the conclusion that...

there doesn't really seem to be a discernible agenda unless the intent was to WIFOM scotty

most of his posting revolved around nutella and scotty, and then banter

multiple, MULTIPLE instances of epi insisting that scotty isn't mafia though

spoilered quotes below

Spoiler: show

Epignosis wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 9:36 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 6:19 pm Sorry about the condescension- I’m just kinda disappointed we just lost our PRs with no real trade off and dealing with the fact that there’s nothing to solve any more and I’ve now been tricked into playing a mountainous game. I hate mountainous

Scotty isn't mafia.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 7:24 pm

S~V~S wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 6:10 am

Scotty wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 7:19 pm

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 08, 2023 2:37 pm I'll focus on clearing as many people as I can and coming to a consensus vote pool.

How’s that ‘clearing’ coming?

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 08, 2023 3:41 pm

Syn wrote: ↑Sun Aug 06, 2023 10:55 pm i am back to thunal/scotty

by the lord ruler the game is solved

Why did you suspect Scotty here?

One of thunal’s random questions. Syn answered but Thunal didn’t seem to do anything with his answer.

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 08, 2023 1:45 pm I'm not feeling Epi mafia anymore. I caught him from spec in that game where he was wolf with Delta and he felt different there. Here it feels like he's throwing out takes while there it felt like he had a clear agenda.

Hmmmm
******************
Yo, check this progression:

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 08, 2023 2:06 pm

Marmot wrote: ↑Tue Aug 08, 2023 10:27 am Hmmmm

Yeah never mind it isn't scotty


Why don't you think I believe my reads scotty?

Slightly good look for Marmot imo.

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 08, 2023 2:12 pm I don't have a scumread and it's frustrating. I feel like it would be a waste to just chop the 1 poster today. I definitely don't want to chop in Scotty, nutella, Syn, Seanzie, or SVS.

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 08, 2023 4:38 pm In case there's any contention, I'd rather Seanzie die than Marmot. Let's hope this is right.

[VOTE: Seanzie] aubergine

That’s the progression of someone that casts a wide net and doesn’t actually care who goes.
Marmot slightly good look > will not vote 5 names including Seanzie > voting Seanzie over marmot.

I think she forgot who she actually suspected.

I absolutely loathe this post.

At this point we were trying to find a consensus since we had a lot of spread locked votes. If you read other peoples posts from this time frame, everyone in the thread (except Nutella who was kinda mocking us, lol) we ALL were doing this. The people trying to find someone we all could agree on vs the people who wanted to default to Rico.

I kinda pushed her to vote Sean after he had gotten a third vote. He was a null for me.

This is all about how EOD went and zero about progression. Thinal, along with Dizzy, we’re considering Rico.

This usage of what happened at EOD to somehow make a “poor progression” argument on the person least responsible for Sean’s yeet is disingenuous in the extreme to my POV.

I can’t even say how much I hate this.

Too bad that Scotty isn't mafia.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 7:37 pm

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 12:59 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 1:14 am

Syn wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 12:49 am alright it's cool

epignosis seems like a fine wagon

i would also like thunal to be one

K

[VOTE: Thunal] aubergine

Scotty/Epi partners? He pays some lip service to a me/Epi team but as soon as Marmot votes Epi, he immediately votes me. I very easily could see this as trying to save Epi.

I'm not mafia. So have fun with that.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 9:32 pm I don't think falcon or Scotty is mafia.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 11:03 pm I'm finally off work and can put the nutella - Scotty thing in the Viewfinder.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 11:05 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Mon Aug 07, 2023 2:09 pm Scotty
Syn

Seanzie
Marmot
Thunal

Dyslexicon
S~V~S

Epignosis
Falcon
Ricochet
Lime Coke


Off the cuff tiers. Still plenty of shifting

nutella wrote: ↑Mon Aug 07, 2023 11:52 pm Would not vote:
Syn
Seanzie
Scotty
Marmot

Somewhere in between / no firm stance:
Thunal
Dyslexicon
SVS
Epignosis

Would vote:
Lime Coke
Falcon
Rico

nutella seems to like Scotty so far.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 11:26 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 11:24 pm

Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 11:08 pm Okay, on nutella's third page, there's a turn against Scotty.

I don't see it. Sorry nut.

See what?

I don't need you to agree with my thoughts. I just wanted you to see that I had them. Since you had such a shallow understanding of my play.

I mean I have Scotty as a civilian. That's all. I'm sorry I misunderstood.

That (combined with believing Thunal was town) was part of why I took the leap of faith and voted for him. The fact that his entire catchup seemed to be about Scotty bothered me, although what that means for/about Scotty I don't know anymore. It was SO overt, in my Scotty=town mindset, I was viewing it as a set up. I know Epi can be blunt, but Epi can also be subtle, and uses his bluntness as a mask at times.

But as I said, my Scotty reader is totes fucked up, so I'm going to stop arguing either way.

Yeah I can’t defend how Epi talked about me. It was pretty over the top at times with how much he wanted thread to know I was town. Obviously I know it’s a TMI read but can see how suspicious that looks in the most WIFOM-y way.

In my reread, what really stands out (since I know I’m town) was that one quote where he included ‘Scotty and falcon’ as town, since he hadn’t really talked about falcon prior to that. Why did he include falcon in there?

Syn wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 11:54 am

Scotty wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 11:51 am

Syn wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 11:36 am

Scotty wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 11:04 am Syn, you can try and ignore me, which is your right, but I am trying to look at other options. If you’re town, I *want* to find you so we don’t have to waste a yeet

the wolf wants to "find me" too tbh

obviously the prospect of surviving and chopping the wolf today is a nice one, and it'd be cool if that happened, but I don't have nearly enough confidence in who the last wolf is to balance that against the impact my slot has on town's chances of finding that last wolf, if that makes sense. I genuinely do not see me reversing the impact of my EOD and my interactions with Epi, and the wolf understands the value of a hotly contested villager slot in the lead-up to endgame. If I don't go over today, then tomorrow will have hours spent on the exact sentiment you expressed, "it is probably just syn," and then that mischop leads straight to F3, or, god forbid, someone again goes "I'm gonna vote elsewhere" and then it's my slot in a F3. what are the chances of that going well for town? I am not associated with a minds-winning WIM in the final stretch. it's simply not my strength. my best value is in limiting what the wolf can do with the options available at the moment

So I’m just the wolf, eh?

But you’re not sure I’m the last wolf

I just…I’m trying my man. Obviously you’re putting up a wall with me and so all I can do is shrug. It’s frustrating. Im not trying to convince you I’m not bad, I’m trying to convince myself that you’re not bad, and this little charade isn’t helping.

I’ll let others talk to you and try to form a better picture looking through that window then

stop that lol

re: your color coding, that's not what the red part means. it means that the wolf has a vested interest in keeping me around, so someone town "finding me" is likely more of a help to them than it is to town. if you're the wolf, then yeah, that's what you're doing. if you're not the wolf, then you might be inadvertently helping them

….how would a wolf trying to find and clear a town help their game

Syn wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 11:45 am

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Sat Aug 12, 2023 8:10 pm

Syn wrote: ↑Sat Aug 12, 2023 8:06 pm if everyone is set on the syn/scotty/falcon POE, my interest is in picking who gets flipped after me

falcon looks more blatant than scotty, which makes me hesitate

but I felt similarly with epi and very obviously got burned on that

I am town dude, I don't have the energy level of Maf falcon

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Sat Aug 12, 2023 8:23 pm

Syn wrote: ↑Sat Aug 12, 2023 8:21 pm

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Sat Aug 12, 2023 8:10 pm

Syn wrote: ↑Sat Aug 12, 2023 8:06 pm if everyone is set on the syn/scotty/falcon POE, my interest is in picking who gets flipped after me

falcon looks more blatant than scotty, which makes me hesitate

but I felt similarly with epi and very obviously got burned on that

I am town dude, I don't have the energy level of Maf falcon

is there a noticeable activity difference between alignments for you? does not seem like a tell that would work on you

Like, it's not always? But it's way more common for me to really slank as Maf

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Sat Aug 12, 2023 8:25 pm

Marmot wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 2:11 am Syn
SVS
Scotty
nutella
Thunal
Rico
falcon
Epi


I feel pretty solid about the upper half of this list. Nutella I could still see being wrong on, but I'm very content with a townread there for now.

Solve is prolly in Rico, Thunal & I




Or is that too obvious?

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Sat Aug 12, 2023 8:25 pm

S~V~S wrote: ↑Sat Aug 12, 2023 8:24 pm Linki town Falcon seems more spirited, for lack of a better word lol.

He's happier

are these the hallmarks of a happier, more spirited falcon? would we describe falcon as an active player that gets into the thick of it, or someone who has only placed two vanity votes thus far this game? in 3 days, he's posted less than N1-kill dizzy. he seems to fit his self-described wolf meta

I do agree with this- this sure feels like a slank falcon. He’s maybe a tad more engaged than he was in Warbreaker where he was bad, but I found that pretty weird to describe this game as not-slanky

Syn wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 11:36 am

Scotty wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 11:04 am Syn, you can try and ignore me, which is your right, but I am trying to look at other options. If you’re town, I *want* to find you so we don’t have to waste a yeet

the wolf wants to "find me" too tbh

obviously the prospect of surviving and chopping the wolf today is a nice one, and it'd be cool if that happened, but I don't have nearly enough confidence in who the last wolf is to balance that against the impact my slot has on town's chances of finding that last wolf, if that makes sense. I genuinely do not see me reversing the impact of my EOD and my interactions with Epi, and the wolf understands the value of a hotly contested villager slot in the lead-up to endgame. If I don't go over today, then tomorrow will have hours spent on the exact sentiment you expressed, "it is probably just syn," and then that mischop leads straight to F3, or, god forbid, someone again goes "I'm gonna vote elsewhere" and then it's my slot in a F3. what are the chances of that going well for town? I am not associated with a minds-winning WIM in the final stretch. it's simply not my strength. my best value is in limiting what the wolf can do with the options available at the moment

So I’m just the wolf, eh?

But you’re not sure I’m the last wolf

I just…I’m trying my man. Obviously you’re putting up a wall with me and so all I can do is shrug. It’s frustrating. Im not trying to convince you I’m not bad, I’m trying to convince myself that you’re not bad, and this little charade isn’t helping.

I’ll let others talk to you and try to form a better picture looking through that window then

Epi iso perusing notes:
-nutella looks really good. Epi calls her mafia D1, and follows through with it on D2 by saying ‘nutella is my top pick to go today’ and then spends time on an actual case on her. You wanna talk about too on the nose, I doubt Epi spends his entire suspicion capacity pushing nutella.

Syn, you can try and ignore me, which is your right, but I am trying to look at other options. If you’re town, I *want* to find you so we don’t have to waste a yeet

nutella wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 1:43 am I am probably going to vote for Scotty

@Thunal33 I think the seemingly too on the nose hard defense route is actually quite plausible for Epi to take.

On the other hand I also thought the "Syn - purple" was a bad look, not a good one.

It is between the two for sure. I think Scotty feels more like a wolf by play today (and find him overall easier to retrofit as wolf than syn). Plus there was the prior confidence I had on him d2 for... some other reason. And my prior confidence was right on Epi so might as well listen to it again.

Are we really the only 2 options on the table here?

Also lol nutella, but your prior confidence on Epi didn’t translate to a vote for him yesterday. As a matter of fact, you flat out made the post ‘it’s Thunal and SVS guys’

Syn wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 10:41 am instead you're musing "it's probably just syn" and trying to nitpick my posts specifically

Holy crap man, I’m literally making a case against Rico.

And of COURSE I’m gonna look at you. Im trying to figure you out. It’s like you’re presenting your science project on Igneous rocks at the French AP final right now

S~V~S wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 9:06 am

Scotty wrote: ↑Sat Aug 12, 2023 10:35 pm Falcon made the point that I was looking to make today, which is: Rico should not be cleared here, despite his insistence that he should.

I’ve been fooled by a super busser several times recently where the town collectively decided ‘oh, that makes no sense to come from a partner’.

But think about the game state. There’s only 2 wolves. If someone is going down eventually, as Epi was most likely, the partner has to get to the end. How does one do that? Hedging, if you don’t want to ever bus. Or make a direct attack on your partner when it seems unlikely.

Let’s look at the peripherals:
Rico suddenly became a sentient human today, which is a departure from the…odd, fragmented posts reminiscent of Pinocchio first coming to life that he made all prior to epi’s demise.
He’s suddenly ready to play the game. How convenient.

If rico is wolf and wants to win the game, by just slanking into the ethers, he’s for sure doomed.

I’m gonna continue my iso of interactions but Rico is actually at the top of my list atm

But ... but ..... you said Epi was the marginally more important role!

Scotty wrote: ↑Sat Aug 12, 2023 10:27 pm I no longer think Thunal is woof



Which I am both pissed about and relieved

Her end of day and SVS’ overwhelming confidence really felt towny. She worked really hard to defend herself and the only other viable wagon would be her pack mate, who is…marginally more important? Like if I look at the roles, epi’s role would absorb some stuff, not the reverse. Again, this is minor, but I think would weigh in to who would want to live and die.

Why is it clearing for Thunal to make this vote (and I agree that it is), and unlikely for her to want to vote for her ("marginally more important") packmate but it somehow isn't clearing for Rico? Especially when his life wasn't on the line, and I was taking suspish from Nutella at that point for trying to rally a wagon on him earlier in the day?

Why is the relative importance of Epis role contributory to clearing one person, but not another?

The only scenario I see this happening in is if Epi is suiciding. But it doesn't look like he tried to replace. He put up a spirited series of catch up posts. One of his last posts he said this:

Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 11:27 pm Ricochet has three fucking posts and I have two votes. Amazing.

Which is why I made that last ditch attempt to yeet Rico, I felt Epi had a point, he hooked me, and nearly reeled me in. And at the time he made that post, there was definitely enough time to add a viable candidate.

Speaking of suicide, not sure what to think, @Syn There are ways to get people to talk about your PoE other than "KILL ME FIRST!!!!!"

It's my experience that people who sacrifice themselves in games to their legacy get ignored more often than not.

It's beginning to get shades of reverse psychology, though. Several people came in here today, saying, "It's syn". And now by asking us to kill you, you may have talked us out of killing you, lol

Too early for me to splice quotes (haven’t had my coffeetell) so point by point:

-You’re right, I misspoke on that sentence, it should be ‘marginally less important’. though if you follow along with the rest of the thought in the post you quoted, my point is pretty clear. Thunal would be more inclined to sacrifice imo if she were the other mafia. Unless Epi just flat out wanted to die, which is possible I guess.

The Rico vs Thunal clearing is specific in context to their games. I don’t see a path to the end for Rico if he is bad if he continues to slank along making weird disjointed votes and posts. He obviously woke up from his coma after Epi died. I think that’s notable. Thunal said he’s done something like this as town in a game she played with him, and I’d still like to see it.
Meanwhile, the vote was more inclined imo to go either thunal or Epi yesterday from what I read. I know Rico *could* have been a close call, but I think it was a longshot based on remaining voters.

Your Epi quote shading Rico is a good one, although I’ll need to look at it in context because that could just be lamenting. His partner could have been able to swing votes away. At the point he posted that, (thanks to Syn), nutella then voted Thunal, and we had:

Syn wrote: ↑Fri Aug 11, 2023 2:47 pm

S~V~S wrote: ↑Fri Aug 11, 2023 2:41 pm Me neither. But I don’t want to vote Thunal or Syn, and don’t think the case on Epi is strong.

I thought you suspected Epi?

nutella's vote forces you into picking one of the three

even if you convince me, and epi, to stack on rico, rico can just tie his wagon with either epi or thunal

--

Epi (2) - Marmot, Thunal
Syn (1) - Falcon
Thunal (2) - Scotty, Nutella

Hasn't voted: Epi, Rico, SVS, Syn

So if rico is bad, we had nut, svs and syn that could all vote for a non-wagon in rico. Rico was holding, Epi was holding. At BEST, rico was never going over. Epi was the far more likely candidate to go over.

Rico should not be cleared for this

Syn wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 1:07 am I'll talk to other people but not you lol

I don’t really know what i’m doing that is giving this sort of response Syn. Like I don’t think I’m even being remotely annoying or angry here.

I just want to know point by point why you suspect me so I can better judge if it is in good faith or not.

I like to solve around the attention I get

Syn wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 1:06 am why you maldin' so badly bruh

Literally lol’d when I googled this

Then frowned when I realized I am starting to thin out

Syn wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 12:02 am scotty's approach today looks the worst IMO

Praytell what approach *should* I have made coming into today?

Continue my tunnel into Thunal until I reach the center of the earth, out again, into space and all the way to Alpha Centauri?

That would certainly have been the easier approach for sure

Syn wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 12:59 am I am not fighting with you. you aren't going to convince anyone to vote elsewhere. solve for a world where the game continues after I flip.

Literally not fighting you; I’m asking you to give reasons why I am bad in your eyes

But if you want to fight, I can throw up some fisticuffs:
-I state I suspect Rico
-you basically mock that I dont use your POE
-ask me to solve for a world where you’re already gone
-

Syn wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 12:43 am

Scotty wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 12:38 am

Syn wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 12:01 am

Scotty wrote: ↑Sat Aug 12, 2023 11:48 pm ha it’s probably just Syn.

If I see his early reads from a wolf perspective, him continually planting his flag on me/thunal as a diff check and just occasionally poking that theory with a stick makes a whole lot of sense. That’s 2 mischops down most likely.

Scotty wrote: ↑Sat Aug 12, 2023 11:50 pm Syn’s play today sounds so humble, too. Vibes are this guy:

please stop wasting your time casing me. I am already the chop. assume I'm town and solve what happens after I'm gone

since everyone has checked in, as well, I would not be opposed to being hammered around midday tomorrow once a real POE has been agreed on

What’s your solve? Just laying down like the video I quoted above isn’t helpful to town if you’re actually town.

describing my posting today as just laying down is disingenuous as hell

Syn wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 12:48 am my approach to this day locks the last wolf into a certain course of action. me going over is a guarantee. there is no casing. there is no arguing. everyone has to spend their time solving with the idea in mind that I will flip green. who is going to try and resist that? who is going to try and set it up so that the POE can expand after I am gone and another voice gets NKed? how will the last wolf try and build a world that sees them alive at f3 with a chance to win?

Syn wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 12:44 am especially when you gave the good old college try at pushing elsewhere outside the POE, which my approach to this situation very specifically prevents anyone from trying to do

“Push outside the POE” as if THE poe is what you dictate, eh?

Listen Syn, you seem to be taking the aggressive approach here that you are the sacrificial lamb, and I am not deadset on voting you. You seem to be bringing that upon yourself

Syn wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 12:45 am logically my POE is between you and Falcon, with Nutella as tinfoil potential

my focus is on seeing how you and Falcon interact, seeing who tries to wriggle their way out of it the worst

All around lol

So you’re telling me falcon and Epi both showed up to this game with a 360noscope vote on someone without reading the rules? Epi came in first, acknowledged he fucked up, and falcon posted his vote much later. You’re telling me falcon didn’t check scum chat OR said ‘CACAW’ (whatever sound falcons make) maybe I’ll dumbtell in thread too, won’t that be just a lollipalooza??’

I just perused Nutella’s iso, and she has a pretty hard push for Epi on d1. Even concluding something to the effect of ‘one in dizzy/Epi or I should just quit mafia, leaning Epi’. I don’t think nutella is teamed.

Please expand on why you think I’m teamed. I know why I can see that I have scum equity, but want to hear how you’re getting there

Syn wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 12:02 am scotty's approach today looks the worst IMO

go on

Syn wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 12:01 am

Scotty wrote: ↑Sat Aug 12, 2023 11:48 pm ha it’s probably just Syn.

If I see his early reads from a wolf perspective, him continually planting his flag on me/thunal as a diff check and just occasionally poking that theory with a stick makes a whole lot of sense. That’s 2 mischops down most likely.

Scotty wrote: ↑Sat Aug 12, 2023 11:50 pm Syn’s play today sounds so humble, too. Vibes are this guy:

please stop wasting your time casing me. I am already the chop. assume I'm town and solve what happens after I'm gone

since everyone has checked in, as well, I would not be opposed to being hammered around midday tomorrow once a real POE has been agreed on

What’s your solve? Just laying down like the video I quoted above isn’t helpful to town if you’re actually town.

S~V~S wrote: ↑Sat Aug 12, 2023 11:52 pm The only way I see wolf Rico making the vote that yeeted Epi is if Epi no longer was able to play. And I don’t know that I can envision Epi sabotaging his partner in that way.

Rico could have voted Thunal, or he could have voted Syn. I don’t see any benefit from chucking his high value wolf partner, Epi, for cred.

Anything is possible but I think it’s really improbable.

I just read the last few posts, I’ll finish seeing Scotty’s catch up in the AM.

Well read back a few more posts to how I lay out exactly what leveraging his partner for cred does for him

Syn’s play today sounds so humble, too. Vibes are this guy:

ha it’s probably just Syn.

If I see his early reads from a wolf perspective, him continually planting his flag on me/thunal as a diff check and just occasionally poking that theory with a stick makes a whole lot of sense. That’s 2 mischops down most likely.

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 12, 2023 11:04 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Sat Aug 12, 2023 10:54 pm I think SVS and Thunal make up the towncore at this stage.
I’d almost throw falcon in there too.

Syn seems to be the obvious choice. Everything points to Syn, and hell, even Syn admits to it.

It’s a little too on the nose. He’s still in the POE tho:

Scotty wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 1:24 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 1:17 pm I'm too soft. I don't want to snapvote Scotty anymore.


Holding Epi to the fire for the rest of the day.

So look, I’ve said my peace. And I have 2 posts left. If people still want to vote me while I’m gone I’ve talked a lot and I won’t feel bad if I do go over without me even being around.

If Epi goes over today, and is wolf, I’m looking at Syn and Thunal as partners.
If Epi wolf, falcon is almost never wolf here imo. This goes with both not having read the rules, and I already surmise one mafia is paying attention.

I stand by my falcon read. But this puts a (slight) wrinkle in my rico suspicion. It could be that one or both rico/Epi have been paying attention.

Ricochet wrote: ↑Tue Aug 08, 2023 4:33 pm sorry for not posting, but I think I know who I’m voting and that’s marmot. it seems marmot was trying to get there way then when everyone found that out marmot tried to say that they were just saying what they thought. That’s why I’m voting [VOTE: marmot. ] aubergine

this post, while rushed and concise, at least shows that he has paid a modicum of attention to the thread enough to note something marmot was doing.

I thought it was odd but not necessarily wolfy. It's not impossible that it's Rico but he looks pretty good because he had the deciding vote. I would have been a pretty high value and time critical mislim, and Rico doesn't even have to be following to know I'd look good if Epi died. My one experience with Rico he gave some thoughts but had a slow start, and then later he got interested in the game and put in a bunch of effort as town.

I don’t want you to waste your post counts but do you remember off hand that game? I have a terrible memory and have played with Rico since like..,2017?? But I don’t remember his meta.

It certainly isnt this same strategy.

“I would have been a pretty high value and time critical mislim”
But this is exactly the point I’m making- him voting out Epi at this crucial moment just ingratiates him into town core. This way he could conceivably make it farther into the game.

This mafia strategy could all fall apart however with a healthy level of skepticism that falcon and I have, especially if we go a few more nights with ‘lockclear’ rico not being NK’d. That’s a lose for sure.

Eh.

Good points RE nutella. I think nutella does come out of this net positive

I think SVS and Thunal make up the towncore at this stage.
I’d almost throw falcon in there too.

Syn seems to be the obvious choice. Everything points to Syn, and hell, even Syn admits to it.

It’s a little too on the nose. He’s still in the POE tho:

Scotty wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 1:24 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 1:17 pm I'm too soft. I don't want to snapvote Scotty anymore.


Holding Epi to the fire for the rest of the day.

So look, I’ve said my peace. And I have 2 posts left. If people still want to vote me while I’m gone I’ve talked a lot and I won’t feel bad if I do go over without me even being around.

If Epi goes over today, and is wolf, I’m looking at Syn and Thunal as partners.
If Epi wolf, falcon is almost never wolf here imo. This goes with both not having read the rules, and I already surmise one mafia is paying attention.

I stand by my falcon read. But this puts a (slight) wrinkle in my rico suspicion. It could be that one or both rico/Epi have been paying attention.

Ricochet wrote: ↑Tue Aug 08, 2023 4:33 pm sorry for not posting, but I think I know who I’m voting and that’s marmot. it seems marmot was trying to get there way then when everyone found that out marmot tried to say that they were just saying what they thought. That’s why I’m voting [VOTE: marmot. ] aubergine

this post, while rushed and concise, at least shows that he has paid a modicum of attention to the thread enough to note something marmot was doing.

Falcon made the point that I was looking to make today, which is: Rico should not be cleared here, despite his insistence that he should.

I’ve been fooled by a super busser several times recently where the town collectively decided ‘oh, that makes no sense to come from a partner’.

But think about the game state. There’s only 2 wolves. If someone is going down eventually, as Epi was most likely, the partner has to get to the end. How does one do that? Hedging, if you don’t want to ever bus. Or make a direct attack on your partner when it seems unlikely.

Let’s look at the peripherals:
Rico suddenly became a sentient human today, which is a departure from the…odd, fragmented posts reminiscent of Pinocchio first coming to life that he made all prior to epi’s demise.
He’s suddenly ready to play the game. How convenient.

If rico is wolf and wants to win the game, by just slanking into the ethers, he’s for sure doomed.

I’m gonna continue my iso of interactions but Rico is actually at the top of my list atm

I no longer think Thunal is woof



Which I am both pissed about and relieved

Her end of day and SVS’ overwhelming confidence really felt towny. She worked really hard to defend herself and the only other viable wagon would be her pack mate, who is…marginally more important? Like if I look at the roles, epi’s role would absorb some stuff, not the reverse. Again, this is minor, but I think would weigh in to who would want to live and die.

Also I pulled my glute and hamstring which…is just terribly crippling. 0/10 would not recommend

I did some thinking while I was away

I didn’t think of the game, which is nice, but happy to see that Epi was a hit.
I also just finished reading EoD and am caught up. Instead of responding to particular posts because I don’t have the patience, I’ll just lay out my thoughts as I remember in reading

hi

Final readlist:

Town:
Marmot

Townlean:
SVS
falcon
nutella

Scumlean:
Rico
Syn

Think the vote today should be between:
Epi
Thunal

I really do feel like one or both of those are a hit.

K, if I’m still alive, be back Saturday

Rico once again channeling Casper the ghost, which is just ridiculous.

If I’m wrong with thunal, and Epi is also wrong, Rico’s chances of being wolf SKYROCKETS. I still don’t think the timing is right to vote him yet because us being wrong there does not move the game state

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 1:17 pm I'm too soft. I don't want to snapvote Scotty anymore.


Holding Epi to the fire for the rest of the day.

So look, I’ve said my peace. And I have 2 posts left. If people still want to vote me while I’m gone I’ve talked a lot and I won’t feel bad if I do go over without me even being around.

If Epi goes over today, and is wolf, I’m looking at Syn and Thunal as partners.
If Epi wolf, falcon is almost never wolf here imo. This goes with both not having read the rules, and I already surmise one mafia is paying attention.